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00:00 "During the 11 years of immigration from Lebanon, 626,000 citizens, which is 12% of
00:08 the population, 70% of whom are young people aged between 25 and 40 years old, have emigrated.
00:16 In 2023 alone, the number of immigrants increased to 180,000 in comparison with 59,000 in 2022,
00:26 according to the International Information Agency. This migration is the fifth wave of
00:31 the series of migrations experienced by Lebanese people in their history, and it is the highest
00:35 ever." "Lebanon has known several waves in its history,
00:38 but its reasons, let's say, after the 90s were different. It is not clear that people
00:44 want to continue their education, people want to improve their economic situation, and let's
00:49 say this is the permanent factor that people are fighting each other. Here, if we want to
00:53 make a simple comparison between the migration, let's say, that took place after 2019-2020
00:59 and unfortunately continues to this day, it is a migration that is caused by corruption,
01:03 political power, and the youth are disappointed by this power. We tried to make a simple comparison
01:09 with what happened in Lebanon during the famine between 1915 and 1918. We notice that in that
01:17 period in Lebanon's history, in the first war, there was a gap in the households, a gap
01:22 that was caused by hunger and death. Today, we see a gap in the households, but this time
01:28 the reason is not death from hunger, but migration to the outside. In this sense, hunger and
01:36 migration are similar to the Lebanese family strike."
01:39 "Lebanese people have been living for four years in the midst of a dangerous crisis,
01:43 which has resulted in the collapse of income, the deterioration of jobs, the loss of savings,
01:48 the decline of basic necessities, and the deterioration of public services. This has led
01:53 to the migration of young people and those with the ability to look for job opportunities
01:57 to save their future and achieve their ambitions."
02:00 "Migration is mainly due to economic reasons, whether it is the reasons for the individual's
02:05 income or the reasons for a lack of services, even a lack of a sense of security, for example
02:11 is a result of economic policies. The danger is that this danger that we are bearing
02:19 is causing the construction of an even bigger economic problem in the future. We are talking
02:25 about a dark future, frankly, because the production cost will increase with the loss of
02:31 the strong labor force and the professional labor force. We are losing it, and consequently
02:37 we will have a decrease in the quality of production in the country. At the same time, we will
02:42 have a decrease in the competition between these people, whether they are workers or
02:46 investors. This will lead to a higher production cost."
02:50 So, a serious demographic change could turn Lebanon into a society that is in decline
02:55 in the coming years. According to the United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, it is
03:00 clear that between 2020 and 2050, the number of people who are over 60 years old will increase.
03:06 This will lead to a record 27% of the population. On the other hand, it is expected that the
03:12 number of people who are between 15 and 24 years old will decrease by about a third, as a
03:19 result of a decline in the marriage rate and a rise in the divorce rate, and consequently
03:25 a decrease in the birth rate.
03:27 The migration of Lebanese today may limit the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed
03:33 people from working, but its negative consequences will undermine the country's economy in the
03:39 near future.
03:40 Elina Mrat, CNBC Arabia, Beirut.
03:42 Elina Mratz, CNBC Arabia, Beirut.
03:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]