جلسة حمراء لمؤشرات البورصة المصرية وسط سيولة ضعيفة
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00:00 We will go directly to Cairo, Mr. Zihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board.
00:05 Mr. Zihab, welcome to us and thank you for being here.
00:08 The investor is always wondering when the downward wave that we are pushing will end
00:14 and the end of the fluctuations at the end of each session.
00:17 We start with the rise and end with the decline.
00:20 Today's results are clear on all indicators, but it is clear that Seventy also today
00:25 showed more pressure than the leaders.
00:28 It is clear that he has been underperforming for three or four weeks.
00:42 His performance is much less than EGX30.
00:45 It is true that he did almost the same as EGX30, but his performance is less.
00:52 This is apparent from the small shares.
00:53 The small shares have very poor performance.
00:55 The leadership shares are moving a little bit, but the small shares in general have very poor performance.
01:02 This is why the big losses that were suffered by the investors last period are felt.
01:09 But let me tell you that EGX30 is almost in the middle of what we said two weeks ago.
01:16 The indicator was going down after it broke the level of 26,800, the main support level of the indicator.
01:26 We said that at the level of 23,800, it will start to rebound.
01:30 Indeed, the second day it started to rebound from 24,000 points until we reached the neckline.
01:42 It hit the 27,000 point bullback and it couldn't overcome it and started to rebound again.
01:49 We saw more than one time that the indicator was rebounding, but the positive thing is that
01:55 we have not broken the 24,100 point that we broke the previous day.
02:01 We broke the previous day, not the previous one.
02:04 We broke the previous day, and it hasn't broken yet.
02:07 Most of the shares haven't broken the level of the indicator.
02:12 The biggest shareholder, the trader, didn't break the 70 pound mark.
02:17 It's true that the 77 pound mark didn't break, but it hasn't broken yet.
02:21 This is a positive sign, but let me tell people who are against the model story,
02:28 forget about the model. The market is clearly turning.
02:30 The market is turning, and for the market to get out of this negative pattern,
02:38 at least it must exceed the 27,000 point again.
02:42 As long as I can't exceed the 27,000 point, I'm still subject to this downward trend.
02:47 I can get a few points, no problem, if people are upset with me about the neckline and shoulders.
02:52 But as long as I can't exceed the 27,000 point, I will continue my downward trend,
02:58 or at least I will move my stock until it takes enough determination to exceed the 27,000 point.
03:04 To this day, this is not very visible or apparent from the performance I see in most markets.
03:09 Today, maybe the stock market wouldn't have been able to compensate for the many losses
03:15 that existed before the strong performance of the stock market.
03:20 And this is what I want to ask about, Mr. Ihab.
03:22 Indeed, today, the stock market has been able to withstand the downturn.
03:27 Will the results of the stock market be able to compensate for the downturn
03:34 despite the downward trend?
03:36 I can't say. Of course, it gave a positive psychology based on the positive results of the stock market.
03:44 So, of course, what will happen will affect the positive performance we saw.
03:48 But if we look at the past period,
03:51 we will find that the stock markets were the ones that were leading the market
03:54 after the news of the "Head of Wisdom" deal.
03:56 It is true that these stocks lost a lot under the leadership of Talat Mostafa,
04:01 who withdrew significantly in the 1950s after the same story happened in the 1990s.
04:07 As I said two weeks ago, we said that the stock markets in the stock market
04:13 of companies are selling at very high prices.
04:16 But the strange thing is that people accept it.
04:18 Of course, I understand that these profits are not today's profits.
04:22 As you know, the real estate sector records its profits after the delivery of units.
04:26 So, these are previous profits.
04:28 But it is expected that the profits will increase significantly in the coming period
04:32 because they are valuing, as we said before, dollars at 100 pounds.
04:36 They sell units at prices of dollars at 100 pounds until now.
04:39 So, with the acceptance of people due to the fear of further downturn in the value of the currency,
04:46 they accept the real estate sector and thus achieve profits for real estate companies.
04:51 Now, there are two teams in the markets about the estimates of what will happen
04:56 in the meeting of the Central Bank, Mr. Ihab, especially some of the news that are being given
05:00 that the People's Bank and the Bank of Egypt will start the process of stopping the return of 27,000
05:08 and more in the coming period.
05:10 This gave estimates that we can see a trend to the process of reducing interest rates.
05:14 What decisions do you think are being taken today?
05:18 And is the process of stopping the certificates a strong indication of this decision by the Central Bank?
05:24 In my opinion, there is nothing at all.
05:30 The news, as you said, was released yesterday or the day before yesterday
05:36 and it spread very widely on the issue that the People's Bank and the Bank of Egypt think
05:42 that they should stop the 27% and 23% certificates.
05:44 It is natural that they stop them because no one will buy them because there is a 30% certificate.
05:48 The idea here is that they cancel a certificate that is not accepted,
05:52 but the interest has nothing to do with the matter because there is already a 30% certificate
05:56 for the first year, the second year with 25%, and the third year with 20%.
06:00 The 27% certificate, as I remember, was 27%, 24%, and 19%, or 27%, 23%, and 19%,
06:10 or three years for 19%.
06:12 Therefore, the 30% certificate is the one that is in force and is the one that is in demand.
06:18 Therefore, there is no justification for the 27% certificate.
06:22 But this does not give any indication at all that the Central Bank may take a step to reduce interest rates
06:26 in the coming period because it is not logical.
06:28 As we said before, we do not want to repeat the same mistake that we made last time
06:34 with the 25% certificate and that we were warning people about.
06:40 We were saying that we do not want to cancel the 25% certificate.
06:44 The certificates were cancelled from here and the dollar flew from 22.23 to 40 pounds.
06:50 I think that the Central Bank will not take this step at least until before the end of the year
06:58 because any thought of reducing interest rates at the moment will lead to the dollar fluctuating again.
07:06 Of course, I know that people at the stock exchange may be a little upset with me about this story
07:10 because they still have in their minds that any increase in interest rates affects the shares prices.
07:15 This is not true, of course.
07:17 We saw that the Central Bank was increasing 6% and the stock market continued to rise.
07:20 So, this has nothing to do with the shares market because it is not always the direct monetary policy
07:27 that increases interest rates or decreases interest rates.
07:29 It may affect the stock market, especially if it is related to the support of the currency.
07:33 This will remain the final decision that we will wait for from the Central Bank.
07:38 Mr. Ihab Saeed, a former member of the Egyptian Stock Exchange Board,
07:42 I thank you for being with us today from Cairo.
07:45 Thank you.