تراجع مؤشر مديري المشتريات في السعودية والإمارات واستمرار الانكماش في مصر
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00:41 Yes, as you mentioned, I think it is quite apparent in the region of the United States
00:47 that there is a shortage of goods in the region,
00:50 according to these figures for January for the UAE and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
00:56 and even for Egypt, which shows that the disruption in the red sea
01:02 is reflected in the activities of companies and businesses,
01:06 and this is through the different channels.
01:09 And so, the prices are increasing very rapidly,
01:13 as the shipping costs have increased significantly in recent months.
01:19 In addition, we have problems in the supply chain,
01:23 as companies cannot get the inputs and raw materials for production at a specific time.
01:31 But, Daniel, if we talk about Egypt this time,
01:36 the situation is different, especially with respect to the reading,
01:39 which we are still talking about a continuous decline
01:42 for more than 30 months with respect to these figures.
01:47 In your opinion, how different is the situation in Egypt,
01:50 despite what the economy is witnessing?
01:52 And even today, perhaps this foreign and frightening factor
01:56 of the effects of geopolitical tensions may deepen the scene there.
02:03 Yes, as you say, for Egypt, it is a different story.
02:09 And of course, we have bigger challenges in Egypt,
02:13 in relation to the economies of the Gulf region.
02:16 Egypt is already suffering at the level of this economic crisis
02:20 due to economic pressures in the last 18 months.
02:24 And also, the International Monetary Fund program,
02:27 which has not yet been implemented,
02:29 we hope to see positive developments this week.
02:33 But it is not a big progress,
02:35 and this will mean that we will have a shortage of dollars in the Egyptian economy.
02:40 And this, of course, will affect exports,
02:43 and it will lead to importation and it will lead to prices rising.
02:47 What the Director General of the European Commission has shown
02:50 is that there is a greater impact on the crisis in the Red Sea,
02:54 as there is also a rise in the prices of shipping and so on.
02:59 And we also see that the tensions in the Red Sea
03:03 affect the ships that will not cross the Suez Canal,
03:07 as they did before.
03:09 And so, the will and the intentions of the Egyptian government
03:13 for the Suez Canal have been reduced significantly,
03:16 which increases the intensity of this economic crisis in Egypt.
03:20 Daniel, in your opinion, today, as you mentioned,
03:25 the market in Egypt is expected to see a lot of developments in terms of the exchange rate.
03:32 We have seen a decline in the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound,
03:38 and even the reach of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
03:43 To what extent have these procedures and if they have actually been implemented,
03:47 will this change have a greater impact in the coming period for the Egyptian economy?
03:55 Yes, I think some progress on the IMF program would be key,
04:04 and if that is the case, it will be in a positive way.
04:09 And if it is not already in place, it will be in a positive way.
04:12 And we will be actively supporting the dollar through the International Monetary Fund
04:17 and also supporting the multilateral parties.
04:20 In addition to that, if there is any movement on the level of the official exchange rate
04:25 and the approach to the prices that we find in the equitable markets,
04:32 then we will see an improvement as well.
04:35 But of course, the improvement in Egypt will not come overnight.
04:39 The economy is facing severe difficulties and challenges,
04:44 and this has been going on for a long time.
04:47 We must find a way out of this situation and take the necessary steps,
04:53 including working with the International Monetary Fund.
04:56 In terms of employment today, Daniel,
04:59 to what extent will this have an impact?
05:02 Or have these claims that still have a negative impact and are still feared,
05:09 and the situation of the mining industry is really on the rise today?
05:12 Can we see an effect on the employment issue,
05:15 I mean, it is really clear with the beginning of 2024,
05:19 and even over the long term, in terms of the region?
05:29 I think for Egypt especially, there is a risk to employment.
05:35 And we still face a risk in terms of employment,
05:38 and we have seen some feedback from the directorate of the Mining Industry,
05:46 that the tourism sector and the services sector have been greatly affected by the rising tensions in the region.
05:53 The tourism sector is considered the most important sector for employment in Egypt.
05:58 So if we see a big decline in the number of tourists this year,
06:02 this could be an indication of employment and affect the economy.
06:06 Okay, in terms of the region, in the near future, Daniel,
06:09 where can we see the challenges that may be on some points,
06:15 and specifically, as we were talking about the UAE and Saudi Arabia,
06:19 in terms of the high cost and also the kind of production,
06:23 and even in terms of the demand in the near future.
06:26 Where are the main challenges today?
06:29 I think what the PMI survey showed is that one of the main challenges,
06:39 the PMI survey showed that one of the main challenges,
06:42 the biggest challenges for the UAE and Saudi Arabia,
06:45 is the weakness in the demand for exports,
06:50 where the demand for local products may continue to rise in a big way.
06:55 But we will not have the same growth in the demand for exports.
07:02 And we see a global decline in demand,
07:05 and this affects the local economies.
07:08 And if we add to this the high interest rates,
07:11 where we have a lot of the opposite winds that the local economies are facing.
07:16 But we are still very optimistic about the growth in the non-oil sector in the Gulf region this year.
07:22 And we expect that the government spending will remain strong.
07:26 Thank you, Danielle Richard.
07:29 You are the analyst for the Middle East and North Africa economies
07:33 at the UAE Bank, Dubai Al-Wataniya.
07:35 on it y'all.