in the middle of the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections. The official halfway point of the Lok Sabha Elections has been reached. As the elections move further into the fifth, sixth and seventh phase, we speak with Mr. Ajit Kumar Jha and Mr. Manu Sharma about who is leading the race.
Can the BJP make 400 Paar a reality, or will the Congress resurface with the INDIA Alliance in the lead? We Discuss.
#FourthPhase #LokSabhaelections #Modi #NarendraModi #RahulGandhi #400Paar #CongressParty #IndiaNews #Politics #Oneindia #OneindiaNews
~HT.178~PR.152~ED.102~GR.121~
Can the BJP make 400 Paar a reality, or will the Congress resurface with the INDIA Alliance in the lead? We Discuss.
#FourthPhase #LokSabhaelections #Modi #NarendraModi #RahulGandhi #400Paar #CongressParty #IndiaNews #Politics #Oneindia #OneindiaNews
~HT.178~PR.152~ED.102~GR.121~
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It is difficult to bring about a segregation that existed in the 90s and 80s.
00:04 A class warfare, a pillar of the communist ideology,
00:13 is difficult to bring about in today's India.
00:16 Because the truth of today's India is very mixed.
00:20 It is not highly contrasted.
00:23 I don't see anything like Mandel.
00:28 I wanted to know this, Manu.
00:31 When Yogesh asked you this question,
00:33 I was also looking at whether the Indian voters, the Indian electorate now
00:40 can make that stark difference as early as 2004.
00:45 Ajit ji, I would like to ask you, in 2004,
00:49 when despite India shining, BJP lost the elections,
00:54 Congress came and stayed for 10 years,
00:56 and then it was removed on the grounds of corruption,
01:02 till then, I would say, there was a glimpse.
01:04 The sentiment we are able to pick now,
01:06 as you said in very clear words,
01:09 that some mistakes were made by the India Alliance
01:12 and some overconfidence was seen by BJP.
01:16 The reality we see on the ground is that we see two parts.
01:23 The first part is that BJP is the best,
01:27 they have done everything, whether it is an international issue,
01:30 international approach, national security, and many other things.
01:34 On the other hand, as you said, local issues,
01:38 like caste is also a topic, we have seen that,
01:41 but there too, most people said,
01:44 "So what if it is expensive, we will run it like this.
01:47 So what if it didn't work, we will vote for Modi."
01:51 We see this sentiment too.
01:54 How will you assess this?
01:57 Manu said that earlier voting was very clear,
02:00 now the attitude is that it works here.
02:04 Do you feel the same?
02:06 And if you do, then how do you see it for Indian polity and Indian democracy?
02:11 See, let's look at the markers on the ground.
02:15 Let's look at Modi ji.
02:17 Look at Modi ji's campaign before the first phase,
02:20 let's see Modi ji's campaign after the first phase.
02:23 Before the first phase, Modi ji was campaigning brilliantly on the strengths of BJP,
02:29 his achievements of the last five years, in fact, the achievements of the last ten years, right?
02:34 Labiyati program and the various other programs that the BJP government has brought about.
02:39 The moment the BJP saw turnout reaching 10% minus,
02:45 the entire BJP campaign changed.
02:48 And symbolically, Modi ji began the first negative campaign.
02:52 He started Congress ka manifesto, Muslim League ka manifesto hai.
02:56 Recently we saw Modi ji, you know, I was totally foxed when he started attacking and saying,
03:02 Adani, Ambani, kya tempo bhadke paisa Congress ke jo bhi Shehzada ko dete hai.
03:09 There has been a shift in his stand, yes.
03:12 Remarkable shift, why?
03:14 Remarkable shift, yes.
03:16 And all of us know, Manu ji also knows and all of us know,
03:20 that Modi ji is the number one cephalogist of this country, right?
03:24 He knows elections better than anyone.
03:26 The moment he saw the turnout going down and the background of 2019,
03:32 when the turnout was massive on the issue of Balakot,
03:36 he realized something is going wrong.
03:39 And therefore he changed his campaign.
03:41 Now I would go back to Modi ji and…
03:43 All favourite Pakistan comes into picture then.
03:46 Absolutely, absolutely. Pakistan comes into picture, attack on the minorities come into picture,
03:52 the entire campaign changes, right?
03:54 And what I am saying, if Modi ji were to, I mean, he's not going to call me,
03:58 but if I was advising him, I would tell him that Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
04:03 the more you attack Rahul Gandhi directly, the more Rahul Gandhi develops sympathy factor.
04:09 Like Arvind Kejriwal, the moment you put Arvind Kejriwal inside the jail,
04:14 suddenly in Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal develops sympathy factor, which he did not in the past.
04:19 He was losing his sheen. Rahul Gandhi is considered an unimportant person.
04:24 Today, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, everyone is watching them.
04:28 Why? Because the target of Modi ji is precisely Rahul Gandhi.
04:33 So what I am saying is negative campaign can, it has a heavy risk.
04:38 What it does, people forget the achievements of the government as they go nearer election.
04:43 They start looking at what the Prime Minister is saying and they start developing sympathy for the other side.
04:50 This used to happen in Bihar. Those days I was editor of Times of India.
04:54 The more the Congress used to attack, Lalu Prasad, the more he was becoming popular.
04:59 So I'm saying targeting of personally. Yeah, go ahead.
05:03 Right. Absolutely, absolutely, sir. Individually, if you target anyone,
05:07 I mean, we have seen it in the past also, Rahul Gandhi losing his Lok Sabha membership over the Modi remark.
05:14 At the end of the day, it was what? It was again, if you go individualistic in your, you know, targeting.
05:20 If Sonia Gandhi is being targeted by the BJP, obviously there is a repercussion and the blowback is on the BJP.
05:26 So we have seen that in the past and you are right as well.
05:29 Manu, final question from you before we say good day to both of you.
05:35 If we have to, if we have to make a guess as of now, or I will say an informed guess as of now,
05:43 where are you looking at the wind? First of all.
05:48 And second, the three remaining steps of the matadan are at those places, especially the fifth phase,
05:55 which is a complete background. You are looking at the areas of Raibarili, Amethi, Lucknow and Ayodhya, Faizabad,
06:02 which is a stronghold of the BJP. How do you see, if there is a messaging for the ruling BJP, what would it be from your side?
06:13 Well, I mean, messaging over successive, I would say years or perhaps decades of electioneering is that
06:23 carry a positive message. You go to people with a positive message.
06:28 Often it is more beneficial than a negative message that if we do not come, then they will do this, they will do that.
06:36 People understand that all the political alternatives have their positives and negatives and vote accordingly.
06:45 But I would like to add one more thing in that, that this thought process and I have heard a lot about it.
06:54 As soon as you see the opinion poll, it stops with the first day of polling.
06:59 And after the first day of polling, you often start listening to a campaign that someone told us,
07:07 it was played, heard from here, it was played, this happened, that happened.
07:12 Everything starts happening after the polling, you know, opinion polls have stopped.
07:21 Just think, this sort of World Economic Forum has defined misinformation as one of the key risks for most major economies, like amongst the top three.
07:34 So I would suggest that instead of taking guess on, you know, what could be basically anecdotal stuff,
07:43 it would be better to go back to the credible and the, what I call, attributed polls that happened in the time when it was, you know, okay to do so.
07:56 And base your analysis out of those, rather than, you know, imagining, ki ho gaya khela ho gaya and all that.
08:06 Point taken, point taken, much appreciated. Ek last question hai, ek last question.
08:12 Yes, yes, please, please, please, you go ahead, Mr. Ajit.
08:17 I just, I just wanted to say that perhaps, and you know, I am not a master of elections,
08:24 although I have studied elections during my doctorate in America, but one of the shifts taking place in the BJP
08:32 and maybe that is what is causing this, you know, what I would call a change in campaign strategy is that the BJP had already reached a plateau in the so-called Hindi heartland states, Gujarat.
08:45 Right? So what you can't, the BJP can't do better than that.
08:50 Last time they had maxed Gujarat, Rajasthan, almost Madhya Pradesh, UP mein kaafi seats, 2014 mein bahatar seats, iswaar bhi shayad achcha kare.
09:00 So what I am saying is, what is happening perhaps, the big change is that the BJP is making fresh incursions in Andhra, in Odisha, in West Bengal, maybe Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
09:12 This is an interesting shift and if the BJP loses some seats in the so-called Hindi heartland where it plateaued because of whatever issue,
09:22 it might make up by its incursions in the South and East. That is one of my speculations.
09:28 Bilkul, bilkul unki strategy zahir taur par wahi hai, isliye South mein, Tamil Nadu mein itni visits jo hai, PM nai khud ki hai.
09:35 Last question hai, dono hi mehmanon se, Arvind Kejriwal, wo jaise marzi hai, jo marzi hai, lekin unko hum nazar andaaz nahi kar sakte hai.
09:46 Halanki bahar nikle do din hua hai, teen phase abhi bhi hai.
09:49 Tabar tod lekin unke.
09:50 Delhi unke paas hai, Punjab unke paas hai, Haryana-Bewgle mein laga hai, jahan par chunaa hone hai.
09:55 In teeno rajiyon ke lawa aur baaki jo Bihar-Uttar Pradesh ki chunaa hone, koi factor aap dekhte hai Arvind Kejriwal impact karega yeh factor?
10:04 Manu ji pehle bole to.
10:08 Ji, Manu ji, shurbaat karte hai.
10:10 Dhaniyawad.
10:11 Dhaniyawad. To, dekhi Arvind Kejriwal cho, woh, Bharatiya Rajneeti mein, agar aap kahein, to, pehli baar yeh hai ki ek-ek mass-based leader khud-bhukhud nikla hai, apni party khada karke, khaska uttar par.
10:28 Aur, toh toh kya hai ki, Bharatiya Rajneeti mein logon ko sangharsan baat hai.
10:36 Apni toh khyas ke liye hum sab, I think, us generation the hai, ki ek George Fernandes sahab ki badi, badi puran paani, badi mashoor photograph hai, woh, Bihari Neeta se.
10:49 Aur, aur woh photo jo the hi nahi tha, woh iconic photograph saabne bhi, toh se baad George Fernandes, toh Rajneeti mein baafi dekh saabne rahi hai.
10:58 Toh, Apni Sangharsan, Arvind Kejriwal ji ko, Sangharsan ko ek, ek, ek, samein, ek, ek, ek, ek, role mil gaya, aur apne, usne woh laab uthaayenge.
11:11 Lekin, sawal hi hai, laab kahan uthaayenge? Laab toh dekhiye, wahin utha paayenge, jahan unka kadar hoga, jahan unki presence hoti.
11:18 Toh do hi unke paas jagahein hai, ek Delhi, aur ek Punjab. Punjab mein, kyuki abhi, polls thoda zyada door hai, toh woh zyada campaign kar paayenge.
11:30 Delhi mein jo hai, thoda ek, antar, virodh hai, Congress ke saath alliance ka, aur uske tahith shayad, matlab, un, un, woh jo kuch positive deyen toh shayad woh equalize ho jaye, doosi taraf se.
11:44 Lekin, Punjab mein toh mujhe lag raha hai, unko kaafi samayin milega, aur woh iska bharpoor laab uthaayenge koshish karenge.
11:50 Dekhi, English me kehte hain, paradox. Paradox kya hai, Arvind Kejriwal ka, unki raajneeti jab suru hui, toh totally anti-Congress,
12:04 Sheila Dixit ko khatam kiye, right? Acha ek tarah se woh centrist politician hai, startup party, one of the most successful India mein laaye, hai na Delhi mein,
12:15 teen chunao dhadha dhadha jeet liye, Punjab mein jeete, Gujarat mein assembly chunao mein, 16% vote unko mila, pichle assembly chunao mein,
12:23 Haryana mein dhoosne ki koshish kar rahein, aur Haryana lag raha hai, ki BJP ke haath se luda karaha hai, toh waha bhi woh entry kar sakte hain.
12:31 Par mera yeh kehna tha, paradox kya hai, unka raajneeti tha anti-Congress, woh Congress ko hurt kar rahe the,
12:38 baar baar jaha Congress jaati thi, usko replace kar rahe the, BJP ne jo target kiya Arvind Kejriwal ko, toh ullat gaya poora picture.
12:48 Uske kaaran kya hua, ki Arvind Kejriwal aaj sabse bade spokesman, anti-Modi, anti-BJP ban gaye, jaake sat gaye hain Rahul Gandhi ke saath,
12:58 toh yeh hi main kehna chahe raha tha, ki yeh jo over confidence ki raajneeti hoti hai, aapko lagta hai hum toh 400 paar hain,
13:05 saare rivals ko target karna suru keejiye, usse hua kya, ki Arvind Kejriwal jo mere anusaar chuha the,
13:13 unko haathi ke tarah maarne ke liye, aap ED ko bhej diye 9 baar aur jail mein daal bhiye,
13:18 bhai Arvind Kejriwal bahut chote politician the, aaj larger than life ho gaye hain, suddenly jo hai,
13:25 ki yeh ko sawaal karna hai, ki aap aap Pradhan Mantri ban sakte hain, toh maine kya hain,
13:29 yeh jo targeting kiya BJP, Arvind Kejriwal ko ya Jharkhand mein kisi Mukh Mantri ko, that I think is unfair,
13:37 aur yeh jo hai, BJP par Angreji mein kahenge boomerang kar gaya hai, aaj Arvind Kejriwal,
13:43 jadhi Congress ke saath Delhi mein alliance kiye, toh ho sakta hai, ki ekaat do seat jeet le alliance,
13:50 pichla aap record dekhiye, saath ho seat BJP jeeti thi, is baar 6 sitting MPs ko replace karna pada hai,
13:57 badal liya hai, toh yahi main keh raha hoon, yeh paradox hota hai Rajneeti mein,
14:02 target mat keejiye personally, chahe Arvind Kejriwal hoon, chahe Rahul Gandhi hoon,
14:08 yeh mere anusaar yeh election, do mahina pehle Modi ji jeet chuke the,
14:13 but yeh jo self goals ho raha hai BJP ke taraf se, usse jo hai India ghatbandhan ko thawa mil raha hai,
14:19 India ghatbandhan bhi self goals ki thi pehle, but Rahul Gandhi ka jab yaatra finally end kiya Mumbai mein,
14:27 tab se dekhiye yeh election jo hai palatne laga hai, ab yeh main nahi keh raha hoon ki Modi ji jeet ke nahi aayenge,
14:33 but yeh main keh raha hoon ki bilkul sweep election jo tha, jo ki 2019 ke tarah ek tsunami ban sakta tha,
14:41 wo nahi bana, aur phir normal election ho gaya aur phir caste survey, constitution, bada agenda ban gaya.
14:48 Chale gentlemen, thank you, thank you so much, thank you so much for your worthy insights and we definitely look forward to speak to you
14:57 in the subsequent stages of the elections and also the 1st of June when the 7th phase gets underway
15:04 and the 4th of June, the all important day. Manu Sharma, sophologist and Aritma Jha, senior journalist and CEO and editorial director of Bits India.
15:13 Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts here.
15:16 Subscribe to One India Channel and never miss an update.
15:20 [BLANK_AUDIO]