Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00And we stand to analyze the performance of the Saudi market with my guest from Riyadh, Mr. Mohamed Imran, head of the Gulf Central Financial Consultations.
00:07Welcome, Mr. Mohamed.
00:09I will start with you on the extent of the impact of any statement related to the Saudi budget on the movement of the market.
00:16Because for a period of time, Saudi Arabia or its finance, specifically perhaps from the period of the Corona pandemic,
00:21it gives us a separate reading that can be renewed or reviewed.
00:27Do you think that the treatment of the link between the announcement and the statement with the Saudi market
00:32did not return to the importance that it had in the market previously?
00:38In fact, with the announcement of the financial balance program in 2017,
00:45it gave a clear picture of the government's plans for spending and its expectations for revenues for the next five years.
00:54As you mentioned, it was from 2017 to approximately 2022.
01:00As you mentioned, the impact is limited because the general picture has become clear to investors,
01:06brokers, and government agencies that use these revenues or spending directly.
01:15Therefore, the picture became clear, and this is always important.
01:18Any government official or any investor is interested in seeing the government's plans more clearly through work programs,
01:26spending plans, and expectations for revenues, not only for short periods of time, but for longer periods of time.
01:33As a result, the picture became clear, and when the announcement of the financial balance was made in a quarter-year form,
01:42the impact became limited because the general picture became clear,
01:47even if there was a rise or decrease in the relative performance in the quarter,
01:52it did not affect because we always care about the general picture, whether it is five-year performance or annual performance.
01:59Now, as is known, the government, several months ago, announced three upcoming years,
02:06as you mentioned, until 2025, and gave a clear picture of how the government's spending will look like,
02:12with the numbers, of course, and also the expected revenues.
02:16This is very important for the investor because when he invests, he knows exactly how the general picture will be for the state
02:23and its movements in terms of revenues and spending, and also for the government agencies, things have become clear.
02:31Now, the final results are close to the expected annual performance at the end of 2024.
02:37Let's not forget that there are many challenges.
02:40The Kingdom reduced the amount of oil production in accordance with the OPEC Plus decision,
02:46and this, in turn, had an impact on oil revenues,
02:51but the Kingdom always relies heavily on non-oil revenues,
02:58such as the private sector, and this is important, and the numbers are encouraging in this regard.
03:05If we were to look at the oil workers with this importance, and we should not underestimate them,
03:10we should look at Aramco. Aramco, on the one hand, raised the sales prices of oil to Asia today.
03:16The news was influential.
03:17Do not forget that even if it continues to reduce production, it also raised the prices of oil to a number of industries,
03:23as well as those who provided them with this service, and the financial impact will appear in the first quarter.
03:30To any of these workers, Aramco's revenues will be improved in some way, and consequently, the oil revenues.
03:37Of course, if we are talking about links, there is always a link between the production quantities and the prices of any product.
03:45Now, the production quantities of Aramco have decreased, as is known, since the second half of last year,
03:51and consequently, we have seen an improvement in the prices.
03:54Today, the prices have reached, several weeks ago, a measurable level of $90,
04:01and this is the highest it has been for a year or two.
04:05And our continuity in the same production levels will support the prices more and more.
04:10Now, the expectations are that during this year, we may see the prices go beyond $90 and may even approach $100.
04:18This, of course, indicates that the link is in fact beneficial to the prices,
04:23and this, of course, will improve the value of the revenues or the total sales,
04:30and consequently, indirectly, it is also supposed to improve the revenues.
04:35I see the picture as positive, but of course, gradually and slowly,
04:40in terms of improving the prices, and I think we will see it better in the second quarter or the third quarter of this year.
04:47As we said, the average prices may exceed $90 and may even exceed $100,
04:54depending on the nature of the price movements,
04:58but in general, the picture is in favor of an increase in prices,
05:02and in terms of production quantities, this depends on the decisions of OPEC Plus,
05:06but it seems to us, from our reading of the situation,
05:10it seems that there is relative stability, and it will continue for the next few months,
05:14until fundamental changes occur, and OPEC Plus may change its production policy.
05:20Thank you for your time and your analysis.
05:22My guest is Mr. Mohamed Al-Amran from Riyadh, and you are the President of the Gulf Center for Financial Consultations.