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00:00Let's take a look at the details of today's session with a guest from Riyadh, Mr. Mohamed Al-Amra,
00:07President of the Gulf Center for Financial Consultations.
00:09Welcome, Mr. Mohamed.
00:11Despite the fact that insurance companies in the Saudi market have started to improve,
00:16we have good entities, but today we found the biggest five losers from insurance companies.
00:22Why?
00:24Bismillah ar-Rahman ar-Rahim.
00:26There is no doubt that the financial results announced today by a large number of insurance companies
00:31had a clear effect on the closure of a large number of insurance companies,
00:36compared to the rest of the world, of course.
00:38The reason, as we know, is that last year there was a change in the accounting standards,
00:44and consequently, there were large jumps in the wills and net profits of insurance companies,
00:51not on the ground.
00:53There was a shy reaction throughout this period with these results,
00:58because they know that the main reason was a change in the accounting standards,
01:03and the important thing is always the tangible reality of the actual results,
01:09whether in the form of new insurance policies, whether in medical activities,
01:14or insurance of cars, and so on.
01:17It is true that there is an improvement in activities on the ground,
01:20but accordingly, there were large jumps due to a change in the accounting standards.
01:25This year, when we compare the performance with last year,
01:29it was very clear that there were companies that succeeded in maintaining their wills
01:36and net profits compared to last year,
01:39but a large number of insurance companies, unfortunately, had a decline,
01:43whether it was separate or annual, whether it was in sales or net profits.
01:47And the really disappointing surprise is that some insurance companies,
01:51today and in recent days, have announced losses, in fact,
01:56and this is a shock that the insurance sector is improving,
02:02and there is a change in the accounting standards,
02:04there is also an improvement in activities on the ground,
02:08but unfortunately, according to some companies,
02:11there was a large decline or even a loss, as we mentioned,
02:15and this, of course, had a direct effect on the large number of insurance companies
02:21in the world today.
02:24Let's talk a little about the 12,250 index,
02:28which is still related to this channel.
02:30Mr. Mohammed, what is your point of view?
02:32Why are we still waiting?
02:33Is it the time to announce the results and we are reading how it can move after that?
02:39I consider the 12,250 point to be a very important point,
02:43because the market, as we know, has been down for six weeks,
02:47and it has also had several weeks, two or three weeks,
02:50to try to build uprisings, all of which failed.
02:53Today, in fact, several days ago,
02:58we began to notice that the market is really trying to establish a new uprising channel.
03:03I mean, its primary reassuring factors are the breach of the 12,250 index,
03:09which you mentioned, and we really closed the day on it,
03:12which means that there are signs that we hope will be true for a new uprising path,
03:18but the problem is that the valuation is still weak.
03:21I mean, today, I don't think it exceeded even 7 billion Riyals per day,
03:27and this shows that the establishment of an uprising channel is not supported by strong liquidity.
03:32I mean, it supports the purchase and construction of a strong uprising path.
03:36For this reason, it is true that the picture looks good with the establishment of an uprising path,
03:43and a break for downtrend paths, and this is a positive sign, without a doubt.
03:50But the important thing is to see bigger uprisings,
03:54and to focus specifically on leading companies,
03:58and we haven't seen this so far.
04:00We hope to see it tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
04:03I mean, if we saw, for example, the market capitalization at the level of 12,250 for several sessions,
04:09with an increase in uprisings, let's say over 7 or 8 billion,
04:14I think we would have established a really strong and supported channel, God willing.
04:19But if we enter a new profit process, of course, it will destroy everything we have built so far.
04:25Okay, let's go with you to what we expect of an improvement in the banking sector.
04:32So far, it seems that we are getting closer to the image of the federal values,
04:36which are about to burn, contrary to the direction of monetary policy.
04:40Will the banking sector opportunities be the last time we see them in the first quarter of this year,
04:45with this increase in profit margins?
04:47I will exclude Rajhi because his portfolio relies a lot on real estate, especially individual loans.
04:53Or do we still have a chance until the third quarter?
04:56I think there are many opportunities.
04:59I mean, the banking sector was able to speed up growth rates,
05:05in wills, or in net profits,
05:08improving profit margins, including, of course, the Rajhi Bank.
05:13Therefore, there are many opportunities for him to lead the next phase.
05:17The telecommunications sector is also on the rise,
05:20because there is an improvement in profit margins and growth rates,
05:24as we have always mentioned.
05:26Growth rates are what drive prices to rise,
05:30in the face of other negative factors.
05:33Therefore, at this stage, the continuation of growth rates in wills and net profits,
05:38I think, will play a role.
05:40This is what we have noticed and seen so far in the first quarter of this year,
05:46specifically in the banking sector and the telecommunications sector.
05:49For the federal sector, several weeks ago, there was evidence that it could increase,
05:55and this ended when Mr. Powell announced in the last meeting two weeks ago
06:02that this option is not necessary at all.
06:05Therefore, there is no need to be afraid of any intention to increase,
06:09even if it is a small percentage.
06:11Now, the bet is that it will be reduced,
06:15but the question is when and how?
06:17The latest forecasts indicate that the decline will start next September,
06:23and before the end of this year, we may see two declines.
06:27These are the closest forecasts and possibilities.
06:31Therefore, this supports that we may see increases in the prices of stocks
06:36as long as companies maintain growth rates,
06:39despite these negative conditions, of course, in wills and net profits.
06:43Therefore, if this growth continues, it will certainly support buying operations,
06:48and the buying rate will increase and rise as long as the federal sector really reduces,
06:55as we mentioned, from next September.
06:58Thank you for your time and your analysis.
07:00My guest is Riyad Al-Amran, and you are the President of the Gulf Central Bank.
07:03Financial consultations.