Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar and Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House speaks with Col Anil Bhat (retd.) on the situation in Mynmar and its implications for India | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:15Our topic today is the latest situation in Myanmar and its implications for India.
00:22It is our pleasure to welcome Mr. Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House, former
00:31Ambassador to Myanmar and the author of India-Myanmar Relations Changing Contours.
00:39Mr. Bhatia has been in the thick of whatever is happening there.
00:47His tenure was from 2002 onwards.
00:59Ever since the coup, the first effect on India was a lot of refugees coming into Manipur
01:12and Mizoram.
01:13I remember speaking to some of my friends in Manipur and it began with the first few
01:23hundreds and then swelled up to a few thousands.
01:29Today, I think there are a few tens of thousands, we can't say exactly, in Manipur and Mizoram
01:42put together.
01:45And there is a process on to try to send them back.
01:51But that, I think, is going rather slowly.
02:01Miss Aung San Suu Kyi's tenure lasted about barely nine years.
02:12Without dwelling further, I think I'll request Mr. Bhatia to give us his OMU.
02:24Thank you very much, Colonel Bhat.
02:27My greetings from Gateway House, the think tank where I work.
02:32It's a pleasure to be with you holding the same conversation focused on Myanmar.
02:38As you introduced the subject, it is apt to say that the last three years in Myanmar
02:46from 1st February 2021 to now in May 2024, these three plus years have been very difficult
02:58years for the country.
03:02First of all, an undeclared but a very clear civil war is underway.
03:10The government has been in conflict with its own people, starting with the Bamar majority
03:17in the heartland of Myanmar, and also with the ethnic groups which are located in the
03:22peripheral regions as well.
03:26Initially, this conflict was peaceful, but then soon it degenerated into violence.
03:33And it has really cost very dearly to the people in terms of killings, injuries, deprivation,
03:42poverty, and obviously complete damage to the economy.
03:47Now, the most important milestone was October 2023, when three ethnic groups got together
03:56and inflicted a major defeat on the Myanmar army.
04:00This was probably their most serious defeat in recent years.
04:04And in the last six months since then, it is claimed by the opposition or by the resistance
04:11that they have gained the control of the territory of the country to the extent of 50 to 60%.
04:19Now, there is no independent way to check all this.
04:22But the fact remains that Myanmar military does not run in many areas, small townships
04:30and villages of the country.
04:33And certainly it does not run into several ethnic areas in north, south, east and west.
04:39So in light of this, you have chosen a very apt topic, what is the impact on the region
04:46and particularly on India?
04:48And I'll be very happy to answer such questions that you may choose to pose to me.
04:54Mr. Bhatia, with China's history of meddling in Indian affairs and after all, there's no
05:09better place than the northeast.
05:12They did enough in supporting the Nagas, then the Maitreys, then even the Ulfa of Assam.
05:27It cannot be that they don't have a hand in this also.
05:31To the best of my knowledge is that the Arakan army, which is an insurgent group, has got
05:38lots of arms from them.
05:41Because today, when we say implications of what is happening in Myanmar, somehow a very
05:53important one is China's role or how effective is it?
06:00Is it much?
06:01Is it not much?
06:04Apart from that, of course, I'll take this question first.
06:09Okay.
06:10Thank you very much.
06:13I think when it comes to implications of the Myanmar crisis on India, I think they can
06:19be divided into three major categories, according to me.
06:25Firstly, the implications for internal security, secondly, the economic impact and thirdly,
06:33the strategic impact.
06:35So under internal security, we can see very clearly that there is a problem.
06:42You know, refugee inflow has become a challenge, you mentioned in the beginning about it.
06:48I think authorities may have a clear picture of numbers, but in the public domain, we keep
06:54talking about 50 to 75,000 refugees who had come in, some of them have gone back, others
07:01are being sent back.
07:02But this is an extra burden, which our border states economy can ill afford.
07:08In addition, the other impact on internal security is that there's been a very significant
07:16increase in smuggling and in all kinds of illegal and criminal activities across the
07:24border.
07:25And this was partly responsible for the security crisis in Manipur as well.
07:31So these are two main internal security implications.
07:35Then on the economic impact, you can see that India's all major trans-boundary development
07:43projects, the tri-lateral highway, Kaladan multimodal project, other projects, they are
07:49all stuck because Myanmar is in trouble, its own stability and security are in danger.
07:56Where is then the question of over constructing all these things?
08:00I think it's also been targeted by some of the groups in 2019.
08:06Certainly.
08:07Certainly.
08:08And just one minute, the third is strategic impact relates very much to China.
08:16Right now, the question of Chinese interfering in the internal affairs of the Northeast states,
08:23which is an old one, as you know, you have handled all that yourself.
08:28But right now, the issue is that China's influence in Myanmar is increasing very, very quickly,
08:36very speedily.
08:37And therefore, unless and until India tweaks its Myanmar policy, you know, after consideration
08:46and does something to play a slightly bigger role in Myanmar affairs and compete with China,
08:54you know, we may not be able to stop a situation where Myanmar gets to be completely dominated
09:00by China, which would be to the detriment of India.
09:05The Myanmar army in the past had been supporting our insurgent groups.
09:18They've been very keen to acquire whatever weaponry they could from us.
09:24But their promises of arresting, you know, arresting the activities of the Indian insurgent
09:31groups were never, you know, they were never really kept.
09:36Very often, you know, they'd be informing the insurgent groups about threats to them
09:47so they could change locations.
09:49We've, of course, had a few successes of, you know, nabbing insurgent groups in Kosovo.
10:01But this has been a problem and I don't see, now it remains to be seen with the Myanmar
10:12army's influence reducing, you very rightly brought out that they've lost control of,
10:24have very little control of almost 60% of Myanmar.
10:32Can you comment on how this will affect our, you know, because although the insurgents,
10:43Indian insurgent situation, I refer to them as insurgent-turned-terrorists, because that's
10:48what the Naga, the Maitis, and the Assamese groups, you know, did over the last two, three
11:01decades.
11:02It's reduced, but it's still there.
11:05And we're quite clear that China is still supporting whichever way they can, these groups,
11:16for whatever they can do.
11:17No, I understand, I understand that, I'm fully aware of that story, this we had handled
11:26ourselves when I was in Yangon, but essentially that is history now.
11:32I think today in 2024, the situation is drastically changed because in the border region, you
11:40know, the border of India and Myanmar, from the north down to the south, much of the border
11:47region is not under the control of the Myanmar military any longer.
11:52The entire belt where Kachin, Sagaing, Chin, and also the Rakhine areas fall, various insurgent
12:04groups are in control.
12:06And therefore, if we want some stability there, if we want the Indian insurgent groups
12:13to be controlled and regulated, if we want cooperation of the local authorities from
12:19the Myanmar side, then the only option for India is to open contacts and dialogue with
12:27some of the key groups which are in control, because Nepito, the capital, is not in control.
12:34So, this is one of the elements of the recalibration of policy that I have suggested.
12:41You know, whatever has happened in Manipur, it has its history of, you know, the cookies
12:57being, I mean, Manipur's history is that its original size as Kanglipak was, it included,
13:07it was a whole lot larger than what it is since 1947.
13:14And the British too, and they were the last to succumb to the British, the Maithais, the
13:22Kanglipak kingdom, 1891, as late as 1891.
13:26And after that, the British, to contain them, made a lot of cookies come and, you know,
13:34settle there in the hills around Imphal.
13:39That was, you know, that was even taken much further by, I think, during the tenure of
13:51the Congress government.
13:53What I'm asking is, is there still, you know, after all, most of what, who settled there
14:00came from Burma, Burma now Myanmar.
14:06Is there any way that, any connection, and of course, we are, I think, we are being hopeful
14:19that with whatever has happened, there may be greater chances for democracy to return
14:25to Myanmar.
14:28Well, clearly you have served in the region, you know, Myanmar, particularly the situation
14:33in Manipur very well.
14:34I have visited there but I don't have any in-depth knowledge.
14:38All that I can say is, if we are referring first to the situation in Manipur, I have
14:43already made a comment.
14:44You know, whatever may be the internal indigenous reasons, the factors relating to Myanmar may
14:51have aggravated it further.
14:53But I'll stop there and I'll go straight on to the question of democracy in Myanmar.
14:58Honestly, the experiment with limited democracy for nearly a decade, from 2011 to 2020, went
15:09off quite smoothly and nobody really expected that so mercilessly and so suddenly the military
15:16generals will again topple the democratic system in Myanmar.
15:23So, at this stage in May 2024, the prospects of return to democracy, even limited democracy,
15:31seem very grim.
15:33You know, what has essentially happened is that the main political party, NLD of Madam
15:40Aung San Suu Kyi, this has been seriously weakened, new political forces have come up
15:47and meanwhile, Madam Aung San Suu Kyi is either still in the jail or under some kind of house
15:54arrest.
15:55There's a lot of confusion.
15:56It seems she's been moved to house arrest because of...
15:59We don't know.
15:59I think the latest reports indicate that there is no confirmation of that initial statement
16:06made by the military spokesman.
16:08But be that as it may, she is not a free individual yet and unless and until she is released and
16:15the other political prisoners are released and some kind of political activity is allowed,
16:20the question of talking about return to democracy does not arise.
16:30You have brought out that there are certain recalibrations that we can do.
16:41Is there any...
16:42Because now, at this point of time, India has really got caught into the web of elections,
16:52which will have, I think, in the next two, three months, its effect will be there.
17:00Unfortunately, Myanmar in the past or throughout, it has remained, you know,
17:08not much reported about, even by Indian media or foreign media.
17:17And my experience is that from foreign media, it was only the human rights aspects,
17:25one of the only things they ever bothered to comment upon.
17:33Are there any things we need to do which we can start off on straight away or as soon as possible?
17:41Yes, I think this is a very thoughtful question.
17:46And I do agree that India is caught up with its general elections, but it is a matter of
17:54one month and this would be over. Fourth of June, we would have the new government.
17:59Therefore, our machinery needs to start advanced thinking and policy making
18:06or making of policy proposals now.
18:10It is true that media is not taking that much interest, but that does not matter.
18:14I think those who are tracking Myanmar know exactly what is going on.
18:19In terms of recalibrated Myanmar policy, we have suggested some specific
18:28action to be taken by our government.
18:31The first point is that if the power brokers, the power wielders in Myanmar have changed,
18:39then in order to create leverage and maneuvering capability for India, we have to
18:44also start opening conversations with a number of the new actors.
18:49At the same time, we must keep the Myanmar military, we should take them into confidence
18:55and say we are doing it for the welfare of your own country.
18:59So they will understand that, I believe.
19:02My second point is that we have to help the poor people of Myanmar because they are suffering
19:09badly. We can't help all of them all around the country, but at least in our border region,
19:15if we can extend humanitarian help, help in the field of medical and the rest of it,
19:21I think we should set aside some money because this will be a good investment.
19:26And the third thing, Colonel, is very important.
19:30India should send a clear signal to the various role players in Myanmar that if they want,
19:37India can facilitate dialogue and peacemaking with them, along with the other neighbors of
19:46Myanmar. It may sound a bit difficult, but the fact is that even China, certainly Thailand,
19:53also Bangladesh and Laos, and of course, India, we all want a stable, safe, secure Myanmar
20:00and a united Myanmar.
20:02So let us send a signal very clearly that India's good officers are available.
20:08We are not imposing anything on them, but if they want, they can take our help.
20:14I think you put it across very well, Bhattacharya sir.
20:21I think we have to thank you for a lot of very important issues which you've thrown light upon.
20:28We have to keep watching and I think we should do whatever possible to keep Kaladhan and Sittwe,
20:40in whichever way possible, you know, we must keep our pressure of trying to complete these projects.
20:51They'll make a great difference to us and to the region.
20:54If there's nothing else from you, sir, thank you very much.
20:57I just want to thank you very much for this opportunity. Thank you.