Is Moscow 'out of ideas' ?
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00:00Turn to Melinda Haring, she's the senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre.
00:05Melinda, thanks so much for joining us.
00:06These are obviously big allegations by the United States, not the first time as mentioned.
00:12How would they go about proving that these chemical weapons have in fact been used?
00:19Hi Jean-Emile.
00:20So we've seen the Ukrainians make these accusations for months now.
00:24Ukrainian soldiers have been complaining that they have burns in their mouths
00:29and that they also have burns on their faces.
00:31So I think that this is the announcement by the State Department has been
00:37in the making for months and months.
00:40The State Department has been working with the Ukrainian side
00:43to get enough evidence in order to support this claim.
00:46And if you notice that the claim,
00:47the statement that the State Department put out yesterday was very firm.
00:52It said that this is not an isolated incident.
00:54They've seen many, many incidents like this.
00:57So they have a lot of evidence to come out with the statement that they put out yesterday.
01:02And of course, taking such a strong stance against the dangers of chloropicrin,
01:07that's the chemical they allege has been used.
01:10How dangerous is it on the front lines for those Ukrainian soldiers if it is being used?
01:17So it's dangerous.
01:18It's prohibited by international treaties.
01:21But I think more significantly, it says something about the Russian side
01:25and where they are in terms of the war.
01:28So in that statement you put up from the State Department,
01:31the Washington is saying Moscow is annoyed that it can't get Kiev,
01:37that it can't force the soldiers out of these defensive fortifications.
01:40So they're now turning to banned chemical weapons.
01:43So Moscow is using illegal, you know, it doesn't have any other,
01:50it's tried every sort of conventional way to make the Ukrainians move.
01:54And they're out of ideas.
01:56So they're turning to chemical weapons.
01:58It shows sort of how desperate Moscow is to try to change the military means on the ground.
02:05But its desperation means it is finding a way to make these weapons,
02:09if these allegations turn out to be true.
02:12And in order to do so, it would require a company's assistance, mining companies.
02:17Now, the U.S. says it will be sanctioning what it believes are to be those mining companies.
02:22They're not necessarily in Russia that are helping the Russian forces with these weapons.
02:28Do we have any more information as of yet who they could be?
02:33So, Jean-Emile, the package of sanctions that came out is pretty large.
02:37It's about 280 different organizations.
02:40And a couple of things stick out.
02:42I think this may be a pretty effective package.
02:45The State Department is looking for sanctions evaders.
02:48It's hitting different companies in Turkey,
02:52in Kyrgyzstan, which has been a problem, and Malaysia.
02:55And it's also aimed at the Chinese.
02:56And if you dig through a lot of the information around the sanctions package,
03:02the State Department has said that if we were able to really tighten sanctions on the PRC,
03:08on China, it would make it incredibly hard for Russia to continue to prosecute the war.
03:14The Russian side has been getting almost all their drones, their pieces from China.
03:18So this is an attempt to squeeze and to try to prevent that from happening.
03:23Well, I want to follow on from that, because it's very important
03:26how these sanctions actually can prove to be effective.
03:31Do you see them being effective?
03:33If they're looking to actually punish Russia for this act, is sanctioning the right way to go?
03:41Jean-Emile, sanctions are not perfect.
03:43They don't change behavior, but they make it more difficult for Russia to continue the war.
03:48So, yes.
03:49And I think that you have to look at it in the context.
03:52The United States Congress has finally put a package together,
03:55the weapons package that the Ukrainians have been begging for, for months and months and months.
04:00And you and I have talked many times about
04:02the rationing that the Ukrainians face on the front lines.
04:05So as the United States and the West surges up military might on the front lines,
04:10it is definitely appropriate to surge with sanctions as well.
04:14And now, obviously, then the question goes to those same components that you've just mentioned
04:20that are helping in weapons and other military items in Russia.
04:24They create them using components.
04:26And oftentimes that is from the West itself.
04:29How does the United States, how does Europe then target maybe its own companies,
04:34which through third countries, those weapons and possibly now in this case,
04:39mining and chemicals are reaching Russia?
04:44So this is not an easy thing to keep your finger on.
04:48The sanctions lists have to be constantly updated.
04:52And finding ways to eliminate sanctions evaders is really important,
04:57but also just being on top of the behavior of companies.
05:02So the target is always changing in the State Department,
05:06the Treasury Department, both in the United States and in Western countries.
05:09Have to keep those sanctions lists active and keep updating them.
05:13So just a final follow up question.
05:15How do you see this playing out now in terms of any kind of immediate response,
05:21at least directly from the United States to Russia or the West at large?
05:28So Russia has denied the claims, but look, this is typical Russian behavior.
05:33We've seen them use chemical weapons in Britain.
05:35We've seen them use chemical weapons on their own people with Alexei Navalny.
05:39So in some senses, this is terrible, ugly behavior, but it's predictable.
05:43I think that the West is going to continue to ratchet up the pressure
05:47with sanctions and with weapons.
05:49And I think that Russia has finally seen that the West is serious when it says
05:53we will be with Ukraine for as long as it takes.
05:56An interesting thought there.
05:58Melinda, thanks so much for just opening our eyes into this situation.
06:03That's Melinda Haring.
06:05She's the senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center
06:09and talking all about those accusations of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine.