BSE's stock fell as much as 18.64% in early trade after SEBI's demand notice. What should you do?
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00 Thank you and with me, Smriti Chaudhary, we will take you through the next half an hour
00:03 or so of trade.
00:04 Let us take a look at where the benchmarks are right now.
00:06 In fact, the Nifty 50 trading with gains of about half a percent or so and the broader
00:11 markets not doing too much at this juncture.
00:16 In fact, for the benchmark, we are trading at close to the high point of the day and
00:20 this is more or less along the lines of what we are seeing across the board in risk assets
00:26 in Asia and this is after the strong handover at the end of last week from the US markets.
00:32 Let us see if that continues.
00:34 However, what you saw on the screen right now is a Nifty Bank and that really is the
00:38 sectoral index that is outperforming in trade today.
00:41 We will come to why that is.
00:44 Among the others that are doing well, you will see oil and gas as a pack that is doing
00:47 quite well and you see the PSU Banking pack that is gaining about six tenths of a percent.
00:53 Among the losers, you have Realty that is underperforming today down about 1.4 percent
00:58 and IT which is not doing too much.
01:00 Let us take a look at the key contributors to the gains on the Nifty 50 then and you
01:04 have ICICI Bank right on top of the screen that is doing particularly well in trade today
01:10 and HDFC Bank also contributing to some of the gains.
01:13 Reliance Industries doing quite well.
01:14 So, the gains you can say are being led by the heavyweights on the benchmark index.
01:19 HCL Tech or the other end of the spectrum is doing particularly badly today and this
01:25 is on the back of the results that were reported on Friday post market hours and you saw contraction
01:31 in the margins and as a result of which you saw a decline in the net profit number as
01:37 well.
01:38 Now, there is one particular stock from the broader markets that is doing not too well
01:43 and this is on the back of a significant update.
01:46 I am talking about BSE which is down in trade today and in fact is losing considerable amount
01:51 of ground down about 12.7 percent and off the low point of the day which was close to
01:56 18 percent lower and there is a significant update because there was a note that was sent
02:00 by SEBI that talked about dues from a regulatory standpoint, regulatory fees that will have
02:07 to be paid out.
02:08 Meeka is joining in to tell you what that is all about.
02:11 Meeka, what can you tell us?
02:13 Yes, so the SEBI has directed the BSE to pay the regulatory fee on the annual turnover
02:18 while taking into consideration of the notional value of an options contract and a notional
02:24 value is the total value of the underlying set the option contract is based on.
02:28 Now, BSE will have to pay the differential amount of fees plus a 15 percent interest
02:32 per annum and earlier what the company used to do that they used to pay the regulatory
02:37 fee taking into account the premium value which is the price you pay to buy an options
02:41 contract.
02:42 Now, if while the company is kind of taking into consideration what the kind of financial
02:47 impact will be if a certain for F5 for the periods between F5-7 to 23, approx 68.64 crores
02:54 plus GST will be liable by BSE to SEBI and for F5-24 the total amount payable would be
03:00 96.3 crores which brings the total liability to 165 crores.
03:03 Post this we also had some brokerage downgrades where Jeffries downgraded BSE rating from
03:09 a whole to a from a buy to a hold price target of 2,900 which implied a 10 percent downside.
03:15 What it said that since derivatives make up 40 percent of their 25 and 26 profit after
03:21 tax estimates they see a overall 15 to 18 percent EPS hit.
03:25 We also had IFL which did maintain a buy rating but it cut its target price to 2,550 rupees
03:31 offering a 20 percent downside and they said that the only one way that they could kind
03:37 of offset the one time and the recurring expenses would be price hikes.
03:41 Thanks a lot, Mihika for that.
03:44 On that note, let me introduce you to the guests for today.
03:47 We have Rajesh Palviya of Axis Securities and Gaurang Shah of Juhi Financial Services
03:51 joining in on the show today.
03:53 Welcome to both of you and thanks for taking the time out.
03:55 Gaurang, I am going to come to you first on BSE.
03:58 It's been a multi-bagger.
04:00 In fact, I think that's the only stock we have seen the biggest gains in the last one
04:04 year.
04:05 After this regulatory action, would you suggest, we have seen brokerages turn a little negative
04:09 on this, would you still suggest buying at these lower levels?
04:13 Good morning to all of you and thank you for having me on this show.
04:19 So I have always maintained one thing.
04:22 This is not a comment specifically towards BSE because of the regulatory issue that has
04:27 come up this morning.
04:29 But if one believes that the Indian equity market and the Indian commodity market is
04:35 going to prosper for the next 3-5 years and maybe more, then all those entities which
04:40 are associated with the Indian equity market and with Indian commodity markets, whether
04:46 it is going to be a platform provider or a service provider or a depository provider,
04:52 all those companies are going to do relatively well.
04:55 In the intermediate, some regularity actions like we have witnessed today on BSE may lead
05:03 to short to medium term concerns given the kind of news flow and the uncertainty that
05:09 lies ahead of us.
05:10 But if you purely look at the stock of BSE over the last year, year and a half too, you
05:15 can possibly imagine the kind of return that this stock has made.
05:20 Short term on basis of news flow, there can be negative reactions and it may take a while
05:27 to understand the implications of that on the business.
05:31 But I will just leave with one statement that if you truly believe on India's growth story
05:37 and equity and commodity market, then you should definitely look at strong names.
05:42 Either they would be service provider, platform provider or maybe a depository service.
05:46 I would not go specific because we do not have coverage on BSE.
05:49 Fair point.
05:50 Why do not we also get a view from Rajesh on how the charts are looking for BSE.
05:55 Of course, what we are seeing today is a knee jerk reaction if you can call it that.
06:01 There are downgrades as well.
06:03 But any triggers that you can see from the price action, Rajesh?
06:09 I am warning to everyone.
06:10 But if you analyze the overall structure, it is in bullish territory only.
06:14 Yes, there is some price correction.
06:17 So near term setup has turned slightly bearish as the stock now slipped below to 20 day moving
06:22 average.
06:23 So till the stock not again recover above 29 or 40, 29, 50 kind of level, it may remain
06:30 under pressure.
06:31 On the downside, 2600, 2500 are the next major support area on the downside.
06:38 So those who want to buy an equi-net for longer term perspective, they can wait for furthermore
06:44 downtick towards 2600 to 2500.
06:46 That is again an attractive level on the longer term time frame.
06:50 If you get the opportunity to buy around those levels, that will again reward you going forward.
06:56 So our view is to wait for some time, let some correction to come around 2600.
07:02 Then one can start buying this stock as overall structure on the long term perspective is
07:07 on the bullish side only.
07:08 All right.
07:09 Let us start off with the queries now.
07:11 The first one is from Vaishnavi from Chennai and they are talking about the counter Kailaska
07:16 Pneumatic.
07:17 They bought the shares at a price of Rs. 754.
07:19 If you can pull up the chart and see, it's crossed over Rs. 1000.
07:24 Rajesh, do you have any targets on this specific counter?
07:31 So overall structure for the stock is on the bullish side and if we analyse the overall
07:36 structure for near term to short term, yes, we do have a bullish view on the stock.
07:42 Looking at the near term structure, till stock is now holding above 970-960 zone, trend is
07:48 likely to remain on the bullish side for near term perspective also.
07:52 If she is holding for long term perspective, she can remain invested.
07:57 A longer term target we can see towards 1200 to 1300 also.
08:01 So series of high top, high bottom formation is there.
08:04 Realist top loss now towards 960, hold your position.
08:08 Another buy or not kind of a question and this one is on Epigral Limited, Rajesh.
08:15 It's currently trading at 1295 and I am looking at the year to date performance 2024 and it
08:22 is up as much as 32%.
08:24 So quite a lot of interest, buying interest in this particular counter.
08:28 Would you suggest a fresh entry though?
08:30 This is a question from Chidanand.
08:34 See stock is making a rounding bottom sort of formation on daily as well as on the weekly
08:39 chart.
08:40 There is a breakout of long consideration on weekly as well as on the daily time frame.
08:45 So that clearly shows that the correction is over for the stock and now the stock is
08:49 ready for up move from here onward.
08:53 So if he wants to buy for positional perspective, yes, he can buy and accumulate the stock.
08:59 On the downside, 1200 is the important support area where he can place the stop loss to buy
09:04 and accumulate the stock.
09:05 Once the stock manages to cross about 1350-1400 kind of zone, then possible upside on a positional
09:11 perspective, you could see towards 1650-1700 also.
09:15 So our advice would be to buy and accumulate, keep your stop loss at 1200.
09:22 Let's talk about another counter which is Infibeam.
09:26 Now this one is from P. Shiva Nanda from Karnataka and they bought the shares at a price of Rs.
09:32 37.
09:33 It's below that price.
09:35 Goran, do you have coverage on this counter?
09:39 Honestly speaking, I think one should be very, very careful while making stock selection.
09:44 Even the fact that you had had news flows which were absolutely negative and boring
09:49 on the counter and we don't find much credibility on the fundamental side to cover these stocks.
09:57 I would only say that be extremely careful when you get into such kind of things.
10:03 This is a counter that I'm pretty sure that a lot of people don't have coverage on right
10:08 now.
10:09 This is Reliance Power.
10:10 Nagendra from Mumbai has got an acquisition that he's made at levels of Rs. 10.43 and
10:18 he's making some money.
10:19 He bought at levels, at those lower levels on the 4th of, or rather a while back and
10:25 he's wondering whether to hold.
10:26 The concern that he has, Rajesh, is that there will be volatility likely in the month of
10:32 June and he wants to avoid some of that.
10:34 Should he take some money off the table?
10:36 So Alex, we don't cover this stock actively but looking at the technical structure, yes,
10:44 there is some recovery taking place in the stock prices.
10:46 I think my advice would be to keep a strict stop loss at around Rs. 25.
10:51 That's the important level for the Reliance Power at this juncture.
10:54 If it's below 25, then yes, there could be more supply pressure on the downside, we can
11:00 see.
11:01 But I think trail your stop loss at 25, on the higher side, 31 is the immediate hurdle.
11:07 If it crosses, then we can see further higher level from here onward.
11:12 But at this moment, 25 should be kept as a strict stop loss to hold the position.
11:18 Next counter we're talking about is Exide Industries.
11:21 This is Nandi from Kolkata.
11:23 Now, they bought the shares at a price of Rs. 472, so slightly higher than where it
11:30 is currently trading at.
11:33 But Gaurang, we've seen a massive upside in the stock in the last couple of weeks itself.
11:39 Do you feel the stock is now overvalued or do you feel there's more steam left in the
11:45 stock?
11:46 Purely, we have coverage on Exide Industries, Smriti.
11:51 The uptick that we saw on this particular counter was just around that time when they
11:55 announced a tie-up with Hyundai Motors and Kia for developing an EV battery for their
12:02 EV vehicles.
12:03 That's point number one.
12:05 Point number two, battery is a life which goes under the bonnet for both ICE engines
12:11 as well as CNG driven engines, as well as electric vehicles.
12:16 The price at where the stock is trading has overshoot our target price.
12:22 For those who have got invested at lower levels, we would continue to maintain, possibly hold
12:29 on the counter.
12:30 Dips can be used to buy at lower levels, but I think on fallback of the news flow, the
12:36 stock has rallied.
12:37 So wait for a cool off for any kind of fresh entry.
12:41 But if you're holding the stock at lower level, continue to hold.
12:45 The next question is from Raghuram, he's writing in from Bhubaneswar.
12:49 And three counters, Rajesh, he's talking about Devyani as well as Tata Power and he's talking
12:54 about GMR as well.
12:56 He's gotten into all three of them, but I would actually encourage you to take one or
13:00 at least at the very most two of them and give him advice on them.
13:05 He's got Devyani at levels of 165, Tata Power at 425 and GMR at 85.
13:12 Which of these should he hold on to for the short term?
13:16 So I think Tata Power and GMR airport, he can hold on.
13:20 Both stocks are looking promising.
13:22 The way Tata Power is moving on a daily as well as on the weekly chart, the stock is
13:26 moving in upsloping channel that clearly shows that there is a sustained buying action is
13:31 taking place in the stock.
13:33 Now the stock is trading near to its all time high trajectory.
13:37 So we expect Tata Power can continue its rally towards 472 or 85 on the higher side in a
13:44 positional perspective.
13:46 So Tata Power is bold with stop loss of 432 and the GMR airport again, now the stock is
13:53 approaching to its immediate supply area of 92, 93.
13:59 Once the stock manages to cross over 93, there could be a possible rally towards 105, 210
14:05 for GMR airport.
14:06 So GMR airport is also buy.
14:08 He can just place a stop loss near to his buy price 84 should be your stop loss to hold
14:13 your position.
14:14 All right.
14:15 The next counter we're talking about is IDFC Bank and this one's from Geeta from Mumbai.
14:23 Now the stock is down today about 4% right now and this comes after its fourth quarter
14:29 numbers.
14:30 Gaurang, would you suggest buying at these levels?
14:36 We're talking about IDFC First Bank, right?
14:38 Yes.
14:39 So Shruti, we do have a positive coverage on IDFC First Bank and we believe that the
14:45 improvement in numbers is a growth story that is going to reflect upon not only this financial
14:52 year, but also for the coming financial year.
14:55 There has been a consistent downtake in terms of net and gross NPAs and provisioning has
15:00 also come down.
15:02 Interest rates are steady in our country for the seventh consecutive time.
15:06 Possibly if the crude oil doesn't play a spoilsport and there is no aggressive uptake on the inflation
15:14 front because of the climate issues, we could see possibly rate cuts coming in second half
15:20 of this calendar year.
15:21 From a long-term point of view, we have a hold on IDFC First Bank.
15:26 Dips closer to 80 or below 80 could be used as buying opportunity.
15:29 All right.
15:30 That's the view on IDFC First Bank.
15:32 Of course, it's a view for five years that was sought and that's the level that Gaurang
15:38 has said you can use to accumulate.
15:40 Gaurang, Rajesh, we have to slip into a quick break.
15:42 Viewers, we'll be back on the other side to take more of your questions.
15:45 So do stay tuned.
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18:30 Welcome back.
18:43 You're tuned in to Ask Profit.
18:44 Let's dive into the queries again.
18:46 This one's from Mahalakshmi from Hyderabad.
18:48 They're talking about two counters here, JBM Auto and Electra Green Tech.
18:52 They've bought both of them, JBM Auto at 1,974 levels and Electra Green Tech at about 1,700
19:00 levels.
19:01 Now, they say they want to accumulate one of the counters.
19:04 Gaurang, out of these two auto counters, which one would you suggest accumulating?
19:08 Well, so we have coverage on Electra Green Tech, Smriti, on the fundamental side.
19:15 And this is one company that has performed very well over the last one year, if you actually
19:20 look.
19:21 And that's purely because of the kind of orders that this company has got, not only from the
19:25 state transport utility, but also from private players.
19:29 And they have invested quite a huge amount in the R&D facility to improvise on their
19:37 already existing electric buses, which we very often see on the roads.
19:42 So if you want to collect one name from the two, then I would suggest Electra Green Tech,
19:48 since we have a fundamental coverage over there.
19:50 Yeah, and it's had quite the run over the last 12 months or so.
19:53 What a rally in the stock.
19:55 Let's talk about the next counter, which is Tejas Networks.
19:58 And this is a question coming in from Prasenjit Ghosh.
20:01 He's writing from Howrah.
20:02 And he's asking whether this current price is a good accumulation zone.
20:06 The stock is up and about in trade today as well, I should say.
20:10 In the recent past, it's been buzzing.
20:12 Rajesh, on the charts, is this a good time to accumulate?
20:16 So, Alex, very strong breakout in the previous week.
20:20 And again, follow-up buying action is taking place in the stock.
20:24 Looking at the overall structure, yes, he can buy and accumulate the stock.
20:27 If he gets any chance to buy the stock in decline towards 1080, 1060 kind of zone,
20:35 that's again an important level for near-term perspective.
20:38 So I think buy-on-dip should be your strategy, accumulate the stock.
20:42 We expect that this momentum can extend further, possible upside target 1200 to 1240,
20:48 we can see in a positional basis.
20:50 Your stop-loss should be placed at around 1040 to buy and accumulate.
20:53 All right.
20:54 The next counter is UPL.
20:56 This one's from Kartik from Bangalore.
20:58 They've already bought the shares at 565 apiece.
21:03 If we can pull up UPL and see how's the counter.
21:07 Okay, it's mostly flattish, a little in the negative territory and trading at 507 rupees.
21:15 But Gaurang, coming to you on this, third quarter numbers not great,
21:21 but brokerages continue to be a little mixed on this.
21:25 What's your view?
21:27 Yeah, it's been a downward honestly, Smriti, in terms of earnings.
21:31 And that not only was third quarter bad, I think if my memory serves me right,
21:35 second quarter was equally bad.
21:37 Let's hope there is a better story for the management to tell us in terms of numbers for the fourth quarter.
21:42 And chemical sector overall, if you go to see, has been an underperformer over the last year, year and a half.
21:49 Purely because of the headwinds and of course constraints.
21:52 But the latest exports data by most of the speciality and agrochemical companies
21:59 have shown a good growth upwards.
22:02 We are maintaining a hold on United's phosphorus in case if you've gotten from a long-term point of view.
22:09 And targets could be somewhere close to about 640.
22:12 Mind you, these targets would get revisited on the earnings depending upon which way the earnings go.
22:18 Point. Alright, we've got a viewer, Gangadhar, who's tuning in from Mangalore.
22:24 And he's asking about Adani ports, which he's bought at levels of 1415.
22:29 He's asking whether he should wait and hold on with the prospects of recovering his buy price and gaining some ground.
22:37 Or should he exit? He's got a time frame of about six months.
22:41 Rajesh, on the charts, how does it look?
22:43 So I think he should hold the position as the stock is still holding the ground on the higher side.
22:50 And on the weekly chart, the stock is moving in an up-sloping channel.
22:53 Now the stock is almost approaching to its up-sloping trend line on the weekly chart.
22:58 Looking at a longer term time frame, yes, the stock is in a bullish trajectory.
23:02 Yes, there is some consolidation is taking place in most of the Adani group stock at this juncture.
23:07 We believe once Adani port manages to cross about 1340, 1360 kind of zone, then yes, this really can extend.
23:15 And yes, the stock may approach to reach to its buy price also.
23:19 So overall, long-term structure is bullish. He can wait for six months.
23:24 Keep your stop loss now at around 1280. If it's not breaks below 1280, there is a high possibility again the stock will attempt to cross its all-time high trajectory on a positional perspective.
23:37 You are watching NDTV Profit and this is part of the NDTV Group.
23:41 And just a quick reminder, this is owned by the Adani Group. Standard disclosure.
23:47 All right. Next counter is Ashok Leyland. This one is from John from Bangalore.
23:53 Rajesh, I am going to come to you on this counter.
23:56 They say they have already bought the stock at 169 levels. It's slightly above that.
24:03 But would you suggest accumulating now that there is some bit of positive sentiment playing into the stock in the last couple of months?
24:11 Definitely. So rollover action was also promising for the stock and looking at the technical structure.
24:18 Yes, we do have bullish view on the stock and we believe that, you know, for the May series, yes, there could be some upward momentum for Ashok Leyland and possible upside target.
24:28 We can see towards 200, 210 kind of level. So he can hold on the position.
24:34 We suggest here to keep your stop loss at around 178 to hold your long position.
24:41 Okay. Kefintech Gorang is the next counter that we're looking at.
24:45 And we've got a viewer, Pramod, who's writing in from Thrissur in Kerala.
24:48 He's bought at levels of 340 and the stock is currently trading very close to that 700 mark.
24:54 He's asking whether to hold on. He's got a time frame of the next three to five years.
24:58 So quite a long time frame. He's asking whether to hold.
25:01 And if you are suggesting to sell, which counter would you suggest getting into instead?
25:07 Well, so Alex, no specific coverage over here, so I won't say buy, sell and hold.
25:11 But in case if the investor wants to take an alternative investment idea, not that this company is doing bad or the numbers are not going to be encouraging going forward from here on.
25:23 But purely in terms of shift to another sector on the technology platform, IT that is, I would advise KPIT Tech.
25:32 This is a mid-stroke small cap IT company with a very promising future.
25:38 The next counter is Indiabulls Real Estate. This one's from Vino from Chennai.
25:42 They say they've bought the shares. We don't know the buy price exactly, but they say there's a bit of profit there.
25:47 However, Gaurang earnings are not so great. And the question that they're asking is should they continue holding it from a longer term perspective or should they swap it for another realty stock?
25:59 Honestly, if I my memory serves me right, Smriti, we had coverage on this particular company, but we've dropped it because of the new slope and weakening fundamentals.
26:09 So currently, we don't have coverage on Indiabulls Real Estate. But there are reasonably strong names in the real estate pack if you have to just decide to look at other names in the real estate pack.
26:22 One name that I can suggest over here currently on which we have a buy coverage is a south-based Karnataka Bangalore headquarter established company called Prestige Estates.
26:32 This company looks very promising.
26:34 All right. Federal Bank is the last account that we'll look at. We've got Hetav who's writing in from Ahmedabad. He's bought at level 136.
26:41 He's looking for advice as to what to do with this. Rajesh, what's the view on the charts?
26:45 On a technical structure, the stock is now approaching to its multiple resistance area, which is based at around 160 kind of zone.
26:54 Looking at the near term, short term structure, we do have a bullish view at this moment for Federal Bank.
27:00 We expect that once the stock manages to cross over 160-61 zone, then possible rally can extend towards 175 also.
27:08 So he can hold on the position. Keep your stop loss now at around 153. We are expecting target towards 170-175.
27:16 All right. That's all the time we have today on the solution of Ask Profit. Thank you so much, Rajesh and Gaurang for joining us today.
27:24 Viewers, I hope you were able to take your queries today. But if not, we'll come back and take more queries tomorrow.
27:30 Don't go anywhere. We have lots more lined up for you on Indy TV Profit.
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