Grand National 2024 Top Tips
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00:00 Lee, it is the biggest horse race perhaps in the UK tomorrow at the time of recording.
00:05 It is the Grand National at Aintree, 4pm on Saturday afternoon.
00:09 Firstly, Lee, just run me through some of the favourites.
00:12 Well, I think actually the favourites might be changing.
00:15 So all the way up to the lead up to the race, Antipost last year's winner,
00:18 Cora Karamba, has been the big favourite.
00:20 I mean, initially, from some way out, I was sort of fancying that for this race.
00:23 Obviously won the race last year, ran a blinder at Shelton in the Gold Cup
00:27 where it was placed. So, you know, that looks to have an excellent chance.
00:31 Obviously, it's a horse that's got round before, knows its way around,
00:33 it's a classy horse, etc., etc.
00:35 And, you know, looks to have been laid out for a repeat.
00:37 But all the momentum seems to be with the horse, which is probably going to be
00:40 my main fantasy, which is called Ian Maximus, trained by Willie Mullins.
00:43 I mean, what a trainer Willie Mullins is.
00:45 We saw how he completely dominated the Shelton Festival
00:48 and straight away he was on the mark at Aintree on day one.
00:51 You know, he's just the best around, simple as that.
00:53 And it's a surprise he's actually only won the Grand National once
00:56 with Hedgehunter, and that was some way back.
00:58 So he's definitely due another one, and this horse looks to have an excellent
01:01 chance of doing that. And as I say, I mean, at the time of recording,
01:03 a message has just come through on my phone that they've gone joint favourites,
01:05 those two horses, Cora Crambler and Ian Maximus.
01:08 And it wouldn't be a surprise to see it go a favourite.
01:10 That said, it should still be a good price, you know, talking about 8-1 at the moment
01:13 and stuff, so you can do it each way.
01:15 Obviously, different bookmakers will give you, you know, maybe first four,
01:18 first five, possibly even first six places in the Nationals.
01:20 So if you get placed, you're all right.
01:22 But obviously, you know, the main thing in the Nationals is getting round.
01:25 It's as simple as that.
01:26 And that's the big, I suppose, question mark of Ian Maximus.
01:29 You know, he can be sort of like a little bit temperamental,
01:31 but there's no doubting his talent. He's got huge talent, this horse.
01:34 Won the Bobby Joe chase last time, beat Vanillier, who was another one
01:37 who fancied in this, by 14 lengths, and just looks to have ticks in all
01:41 the right boxes. It'll stay the distance. It should, or should do.
01:44 Obviously, the ground's going to be soft, heavy in places,
01:46 so you need a horse that handles the conditions.
01:48 And I just think that would be the one for me, but you're going to need a lot of luck.
01:51 What's interesting in this race is J.P. McManus, legendary owner,
01:55 owns Ian Maximus, and he's got a really strong team in this.
01:58 And if I had to summarize the National, I'd almost say just sort of follow
02:01 his horses in there. He's got five in the race.
02:03 Two of them are big outsiders, Janadill and Capadano,
02:05 which are 100 to 1 and 40s.
02:07 But Ian Maximus obviously, seemingly, is number one hope.
02:11 But he's got another one called Meeting of the Waters,
02:13 which ran a cracking race at Cheltenham.
02:15 That's 11s. I think that's got a good chance.
02:17 And Limerick Lace is 16s.
02:18 That's bidding to become the first mare to win the race since 1951,
02:22 which will put people off, but she doesn't know that.
02:24 And it was interesting when McManus was asked by Matt Chapman on ITV
02:28 which one of his was the best, and he basically said Limerick Lace.
02:31 So that's quite interesting at a big price.
02:33 So that would be the one I'd look at there.
02:35 It's wide open. I mean, I'm full of respect for Cora Granborough.
02:38 It'd be no surprise to see that win again.
02:40 It'd be some effort to win it again on different ground.
02:42 Marla Mission's a good outsider, well, outsider-ish at 16s,
02:45 and Gallia De Litto as well at 28s for Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton.
02:50 So it's a hard one to call, obviously.
02:52 I mean, we've actually had a pretty good record in the Grand National
02:55 on the YEP in terms of tipping it.
02:56 We've had a fair few winners in it, which is quite bizarre
02:58 considering how difficult a race it can be.
03:01 Some years I'm stronger on my fancies than others.
03:04 Last year we went for the winner of the Grand National.
03:09 Last year we had that one, and we've had it a few years before.
03:12 I'm not massively strong on it this time in terms of fancies,
03:15 but I think if I was pushed, I'd probably say I am Maximus,
03:18 and that would be the one for me.
03:20 I don't know what you think.
03:21 Have you been studying the form book all week,
03:23 or are you going to stick a pin in?
03:25 Yeah, I think my question would be, perhaps, for first-time putters
03:29 or those who don't perhaps bet regularly on the horses
03:33 and won't perhaps pay as much attention,
03:35 going into the race tomorrow, perhaps you pick up the paper in the morning,
03:38 who would you be going for, Lee?
03:40 Obviously things could change by the time the morning comes around,
03:43 but if you're looking right now, who would you be going for
03:46 and who do you think would be perhaps worth a five-reach away?
03:49 Well, I'd probably say I am.
03:51 To be honest, it's an interesting one, isn't it, that?
03:53 Because I suppose if people who don't have a bet often,
03:57 they obviously have a bet in the Grand National or whatever,
03:59 it's sort of that custom tradition sort of thing, isn't it?
04:01 I suppose maybe the best answer to that question would probably be Limerick Lace,
04:05 because it's a big price, obviously, 16-1,
04:08 and that might get a bit shorter, I suspect,
04:11 but I think it'll be a double-digit price still,
04:13 and that's a decent odd.
04:15 So that would probably be the one I'd say, purely because with that,
04:17 if you're doing it each way, obviously, at something like 16s,
04:20 and you want a bit of value, then if it gets placed,
04:24 you're still going to effectively get near enough a 4-1 winner
04:26 with a quarter of the odds, so you've got good odds on that.
04:29 So that would be the one I would say maybe if you're looking at it
04:31 and just thinking, "I want to go for something at a bit of a bigger price
04:33 and a bit of value."
04:35 The other thing to look at in the Grand National,
04:37 and this is what led us to the winner last year, really,
04:39 is the weights for the Grand National were obviously done
04:41 some time before the race, and obviously horses then have subsequent runs
04:45 or the form stacks up in different ways.
04:47 So basically what you end up is you end up with horses carrying weight
04:50 in the National when they're carrying less than they actually should do,
04:54 i.e. if the handicap had re-did the race now,
04:56 certain horses would have more weight.
04:58 In a race like the Grand National, obviously, with all those fences,
05:01 the go-in and the marathon distance, all the runners, anything can happen.
05:04 You need literally everything on your side,
05:06 and you need every advantage you can get.
05:08 If you actually look down the runners and riders,
05:11 there are several horses in there that are what's called well in,
05:13 i.e. they're carrying less weight than they should do.
05:16 One of those is Aya Maximus, which is five pounds well in,
05:18 which means if the handicap had re-did the race now,
05:20 he would be carrying five pounds more, and that's a decent amount of weight.
05:23 But interestingly, the horse that's technically the most well in
05:25 is Limerick Lace, who was six pounds well in following her victory last time.
05:29 So there's two reasons why you'd probably say Limerick Lace.
05:32 A, mathematically, it is six pounds well in,
05:34 which is more even than Aya Maximus.
05:36 And as I say, secondly, it's a decent price.
05:38 So obviously, 16s is double the price of 8s, which is Aya Maximus.
05:42 So that would be my answer to that sort of thing,
05:44 the one I'd maybe recommend.
05:45 But if you're asking me what my main fancy is,
05:48 the horse that I think will win the Grand National,
05:49 I think it'll be Aya Maximus.
05:51 But I'd have my reservations about it.
05:53 Obviously, it's always a big if getting round,
05:55 but I would think it'd be a big if if it gets round Aya Maximus
05:58 because I think it'll leave a love entry and just take to it,
06:01 or it could come a cropper.
06:03 So that would be the thing.
06:04 Look, there's 35 runners in this, Daniel.
06:06 You're allowed more than one.
06:08 I mean, so I think that's fair enough.
06:09 So let's say for the two main fancies,
06:11 we're going to go Aya Maximus and Limerick Lace.
06:13 Also, my wife's got Meeting of the Waters and the sweepstake at work.
06:16 So if she gets that one, she'll be happy.
06:18 And I do think that's got an excellent chance.
06:19 I wouldn't be surprised to see that one when either.
06:21 So Aya Maximus or Limerick Lace, do those two.
06:23 do those too.