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00:00:00 Research analyst at HFC Securities as well. Nagraj, good having you. Thanks for joining in.
00:00:04 How weak is this? Does it look like the pain will last?
00:00:09 Hi, good afternoon. I think I must say that this is a beginning of actual pain in the NFTs. We have
00:00:19 seen pains in the broader market since last month it has started. And from the all-time highest
00:00:26 of 22,526, recently Nifty has started its actual downward correction. This is a good reversal
00:00:34 point. I believe the immediate supports have been broken. Nifty is showing some kind of a reversal.
00:00:41 At this point of time, I am expecting the next lower levels would be around 21,400 to 21,300
00:00:49 odd levels for the Nifty in the next couple of weeks. And what leads this charge, Nagraj,
00:00:58 if you were to bet on things which will be the key reasons for the index to behave the way you
00:01:03 are predicting? I don't track the reasons to market moment. What will drag the markets lower?
00:01:14 As far as the technicals are concerned, there is a possibility of a downside coming up in the
00:01:19 mid and small-cap segments. We have seen around a 10% decline from the higher levels in the
00:01:28 mid-cap and small-cap segment. I wouldn't be surprised if you are going to see another 10%
00:01:34 from here on. I'm expecting 43,000 is a good support for the mid-cap 100 and around 13,000
00:01:42 is a good support for the small-cap 100 Finesse Exchange in the near term, at least in the next
00:01:48 one month. We will talk about specific stocks on the other side of this very quick break. We need
00:01:53 to slip into one, but it's not looking good, viewers. Unfortunately, we are not making any
00:01:57 attempt at a bounce back for markets, especially at the broader end of the spectrum. So, things
00:02:03 look tough. We will talk more about this on the other side of this very quick break. Stay tuned.
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00:06:45 It's a hunt right now. It's actually a hunt to see what's in the green in this market. For example,
00:06:50 the Nifty small-cap 100, 98 stocks are in the red and just about two of them in the green.
00:06:57 Even the Nifty, frankly, if you take the ITC run-up out of the equation, it's a completely
00:07:03 different story going on below 22,000 and unfortunately just sliding in that direction
00:07:09 right now. The biggest, biggest contribution to the Nifty fall today relatively is Reliance
00:07:16 Industries, L&T, NTPC, Bharti, all of them. We're talking about how economy and economy-related
00:07:22 stocks are taking the biggest hit. But the fact is that it's an overall picture which is quite
00:07:28 bearish. Nagraj Chetty, people watching may be wondering, is this an opportunity to pick up
00:07:33 quality counters? Is there anything like that that you see, especially in the large caps?
00:07:39 I think we have to wait. We have seen the beginning of a correction from large-cap
00:07:45 segment, especially from benchmark as well. And I'm expecting more pain to come,
00:07:49 especially in the large cap. We have seen some deep cuts in the mid and small caps. Now,
00:07:54 I think this is a turn for the large cap as well. One has to wait for bottom fishing in large cap.
00:08:01 Right now, the bottom fishing is a deep sea dive, may be difficult to find
00:08:08 where you will see those values. Meanwhile, Anushi is joining us with an interesting list
00:08:14 of stocks that she has put together, those that have managed to weather the storm,
00:08:18 that are not doing too badly relatively. Anushi, what's on that list?
00:08:22 As you mentioned, it's a hunt, it's a bloodbath. But there are some stocks that have still sustained
00:08:29 these gains over a course of period. First on the list is HHG, which is up about 6.5%
00:08:34 in the last seven sessions. The volumes are also quite decent on the counter right now,
00:08:39 about two times its 30-day average. And the stock did see about a 52-week high in the start of Feb.
00:08:45 Moving on to Hitachi Energy is another one, which is like about 5% up in the last seven sessions.
00:08:51 The stock again marked a live high of about 6,800 on just this Monday itself. And just more on that,
00:08:58 the company also has an order book of about 7,552 crore, which shows about 22 months of
00:09:04 revenue visibility. And last on the list is Intellect Design Arena, which is up about 4.6%
00:09:10 in the last seven session period itself. Volumes again over 4.7 to 5 times its 30-day average.
00:09:17 But the stock has seen about a 21% gain in this last one month itself. In fact,
00:09:22 the stock was also trading at a live high in today's session as well. So,
00:09:27 these are the three stocks that I've picked up for today's session.
00:09:31 Every rule needs an exception, because exception proves the rule. So yes,
00:09:36 even in a massive sell-off, you will have some which are doing okay. But Nagraj, I want to come
00:09:44 back to you on, especially in your micro cap holdings and your small cap holdings. If investors
00:09:52 are watching value being wiped out, what do you do right now? I mean, we are playing out quotes
00:09:57 from top market experts who have been on Twitter and other social media putting out what they're
00:10:03 saying. And Shankar Sharma, for example, I don't know if he can pull that up, said that the one
00:10:06 train that you should jump off is the small cap train when it's going in this direction and in
00:10:12 this phase. Yeah. The only train you should jump off when it's going at full speed and not when
00:10:19 it's slowing down is a small cap bullet train. Now that bullet train, so to speak, is slowing down.
00:10:24 My question to you and what viewers would want to know is what do they do right now?
00:10:28 If there is largely the consensus seems to be more pain coming,
00:10:32 then what is the direction they can take? I think better to exit the long positions. If the
00:10:39 investors are really holding and riding the recent uptrend in the small cap segment over the last few
00:10:46 months, I think it is better to book profit and come out of the stocks, what you are holding.
00:10:52 You may be getting a good percentage. You may be getting a small or a small loss, but I think
00:10:57 better to come out of some small cap stocks which are running into a deep correction.
00:11:03 I'm expecting more pain to come in small cap, no doubt about that. The overall chart pattern of the
00:11:08 small cap is looking weak. 13,000 is going to be the next support, immediate support for this
00:11:13 mid cap. And this kind of a decline we are likely to see, and I'm expecting it is a better opportunity
00:11:21 to go short in some of the small or mid caps, those who are in future and option segments.
00:11:28 I think that's going to be a better strategy at this point of time.
00:11:31 Okay, so that's one angle and maybe some more pain in small caps, despite the fact that there
00:11:41 are some which are holding out. But since the story of the day is the fall in small caps,
00:11:46 let's get my colleague Mahima to talk about which are the ones that have taken the biggest hits.
00:11:50 And Mahima, I'm sure it's not too difficult to find that list. Maybe what is difficult is to
00:11:54 figure out what to omit, because there's just a big list out there, which has corrected quite
00:12:00 seriously. Absolutely, Neeraj. It's a very big list, but the top four that have performed the
00:12:06 worst include first one, IFL Finance. Well, IFL Finance has gone down by 38% in the past seven
00:12:13 sessions. Now, this is because the RBI barred IFL Finance to provide fresh gold loans, and they did
00:12:21 find supervisory concerns in this. And this is because IFL gold loans are around 32% of the total
00:12:28 AUM. So this is the major reason why IFL has taken such a big hit. Then we have Swan Energy, where
00:12:37 the stock has fallen around 34% in the past seven sessions. Now, this is because NCLT has directed
00:12:43 Swan to hold a board meeting for their JV with IFCO, where they have to address the minority
00:12:48 shareholder concerns. And they've also raised a fund raised via QIP of 3,300 crores. Now, then
00:12:58 there is Rites, which has fallen around 23% in the past seven sessions. And this is because,
00:13:03 as per a Nuama report, mutual funds like Quant and Nippon India have sold a certain amount of stake
00:13:11 in Rites. And then lastly, we have JM Financials. JM Financials has fallen around 23%. Now,
00:13:18 this is because JM Financials was again directed to stop lending against shares in the ventures
00:13:23 and also IPO. And their financing is done in very less margin. So JM Financials has also taken a
00:13:31 hit. So these were the four worst performance on the small cap index in the past seven sessions.
00:13:36 So interesting to understand exactly what Mahima is adding to this is not the largest losers or
00:13:43 the biggest losers today, but the biggest fall from their peak. So that gives you a sense of
00:13:50 where value has been lost for investors. Nagraj, anything that would be on your
00:13:57 bottom fishing list when things sort of settled right now? Are you seeing attractive opportunities
00:14:03 out there, especially in the larger names? I don't find any that kind of confidence right
00:14:10 now because I'm expecting more decline in the stocks, particularly in the mid and small caps,
00:14:15 as well as the large caps. I think one needs to wait when the time comes. And around the
00:14:22 lower levels, you'll get a lot of opportunity to get into, I think better to wait at this
00:14:27 point of time. I have stocks for shorting opportunity, which is giving. And I think
00:14:33 one needs to ride the trend, which is on the downside right now. You know, Nagraj, we usually
00:14:39 ask you for a BTST or an STBT. Today, I'm going to ask you for an STST idea. Sell today, sell
00:14:46 tomorrow. What do you do in a market like this? Yes, yes, yes. Yeah, I have two stocks right now.
00:14:52 The whole trend, whole tide is on the one way on the downside. So many stocks are available on the
00:15:00 downside. And I have two stock picks, NMDC and IOC. Chartically, if you look at the NMDC,
00:15:06 it has witnessed an amazing rally over the last few months. And the last couple of last one and
00:15:12 one to two months chart pattern is indicating this stock has made an important bottom, sorry,
00:15:17 top reversal around 245, 250 odd levels and the decline has started. I think this downtrend is
00:15:23 likely to continue currently trading around 204.75, around 205. One can look to short at this
00:15:31 point of time and the target would be 190 in the near term. And one can place a stop loss at 212.
00:15:37 The second one is in oil marketing counter. The OMC, IOC, Indian Oil Corporation is looking
00:15:44 weak at this point of time. The overall chart pattern is indicating information of
00:15:48 important top reversal pattern. It has moved below the important support as well.
00:15:52 Currently trading around 162.50. One can look to sell at this point and the target would be around
00:15:59 151, 152 and one can place a stop loss at 168. All right. So those are the ST-ST ideas from
00:16:08 Nagraj Chetty. Thank you so much, Nagraj. Great to have you on the show today. We'll take a very
00:16:13 short break. But on the other side, we're giving a sense of what's happening in the F&O side of
00:16:17 things. The carnage meanwhile continues. That's the word really for what you're seeing in the
00:16:22 market. How long the pain will last is the big question. We're coming back with more on the
00:16:26 other side of this break.
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00:21:17 >> Welcome back. The nifty just putting its nose above the 22,000 mark. But thereabouts. I
00:21:27 wouldn't even call it a recovery from its lowest levels definitely from the day's low. Yes, there
00:21:31 are some small cap and the mid cap indices. So out of the 215, the small cap 250, 247, 9, the red in
00:21:39 the mid cap stocks, 144 out of the 150 are in the red. But all of those, if you look at the intraday
00:21:45 chart, slight, very slight take up. I don't know if it's anything to take heart from, but Agam is
00:21:51 standing by to break it down. There was Bank Nifty expiry today, Agam. Clearly a day of pain. And
00:21:57 you had that reflected as well. >> Yes. You know, it's the Bank Nifty expiry, and I wouldn't
00:22:03 really call it an outperformance considering the Bank Nifty is also down. But it hasn't declined as
00:22:09 much as the nifty or for that matter, the broader markets. I'll come to that and talk about Bank
00:22:15 Nifty in just a bit. Let's start by taking a look at the nifty. Nifty, looking at a drop of well
00:22:21 over 1.4%. That does mean that there's a little bit of trouble there as far as your broader
00:22:27 markets go. So 1.4% cut there. And again, no change in open interest. I will hardly any. In
00:22:33 fact, we're looking at nearly 1.3% increase there. So the trend that we've seen in the last eight
00:22:39 to nine sessions continues. Very little change as far as your overall open interest for the March
00:22:45 Nifty is concerned. Let's pull that up as well. Again, just about a 0.4% cut. And the Bank Nifty
00:22:51 in fact, in the last 10 minutes has moved back well above the mark of 47,000. So that's also
00:22:57 something you need to keep an eye on. And of course, open interest has moved up by around 3.7%,
00:23:02 but it's been relatively lackluster for both the key index futures. Let's talk about the options
00:23:08 market. We go into a weekly options expiry for the nifty as well. Remember, it's teased and
00:23:14 tested the 22,000 mark on the lower end. And naturally, because of that, we've seen a lot more
00:23:20 writing in terms of calls. Well, expecting the nifty to weaken perhaps, perhaps we can further
00:23:26 tomorrow as well. And 22,200 is a call where we've seen the most amount of increase in OI,
00:23:33 which means a lot of our writers, option writers have been activated around there. Moving on,
00:23:39 in terms of your overall open interest distribution picture, 22,500 mark now moves further
00:23:46 away. And now we're looking at a significant amount of call writing through and through all
00:23:52 the way to even 22,000, even though the nifty momentarily has moved up above that mark and
00:23:57 from lower on strikes, we don't see too much change in the put open interest, which means that
00:24:02 at the moment, option writers are more interested in writing calls, not as much about writing
00:24:08 puts. And of course, as far as the bank nifty is concerned at the moment, we are looking at
00:24:15 well, the index defending 47,000 right now. That's where we see the most amount of traction
00:24:22 there, as you can see. And I reckon that a lot of these traders will have taken the short
00:24:28 positions on calls as well as puts, thereby making the best of their option premiums in the
00:24:33 dying minutes of the weekly options expiry. Finally, coming on to stocks, let's take a look
00:24:38 at that. Of course, weakness all round except for ITC, HUL, Metropolis, Power Grid and Bata,
00:24:44 all of them looking at fresh shots building in. And even in terms of stocks, which is
00:24:49 seeing unwinding in open interest, there's largely long unwinding, Nalco, SAIL, MGL,
00:24:54 Coromandel, as well as Interglobe Aviation. All in all, not a market which is looking good,
00:24:59 but I reckon that today it's more about the broader markets than the benchmarks.
00:25:03 Yeah, it is. Thanks, Agam, for putting that into perspective, the derivatives trade.
00:25:09 And let's get in somebody who looks at this so closely. Rahul Sharma, Director and Head of Research
00:25:13 at JM Financial. John said you talk about what the derivatives and the charts are suggesting.
00:25:18 Vijay Chopra of Enoch Ventures on the Fundamentals. Chaman, thanks for joining in.
00:25:23 Rahul, how bad does the screen look, both charts and derivatives combined?
00:25:31 Yeah, so anybody's guess, it definitely looks pretty bad. Until yesterday, it was the Nifty,
00:25:39 which was not part of this correction, which is ongoing in the small cap and mid cap space.
00:25:45 But today, it seems like Nifty has joined the direction and it is actually playing around
00:25:52 with that 22,000 support area, which is not only a psychological level, but also the maximum put writers,
00:26:00 which are present on the monthly contracts as well. So, it's kind of a make or break area for the Nifty.
00:26:06 My sense is if we are able to somehow sort of see, we've somehow managed to just trade above that
00:26:15 in the last 30 minutes of trade. But ideally, the markets are heavily oversold and a bit of bounce back
00:26:21 can be expected from these levels. Silver lining is, bank Nifty is not as bad as probably the Nifty is.
00:26:28 And private banks essentially are looking pretty robust, pretty strong. And once Nifty stabilizes,
00:26:33 I think a good, sharp bounce back can be expected in this space.
00:26:37 Actually, Rahul, sorry, I wanted to ask this to you. How important would the role of PCR be?
00:26:43 I know Vijay also looks at these things very closely, but Rahul, I want to start off with you.
00:26:47 Put call ratio, the number, 0.6, 0.7, if I'm not wrong, that usually kind of brings about this turn, right?
00:26:56 Does it happen the same way every time or this time could be different?
00:27:00 Yeah, so we essentially club at least two or three other indicators, not just put call ratio.
00:27:08 So, for example, if it is the Wix, which has hit a recent high, plus the put call ratio going into heavily oversold territory,
00:27:14 that adds up the conviction. Now, what is happening is today, tomorrow we have the weekly expiry for the Nifty,
00:27:21 that should reset the put call ratio by a significant margin and we should be back to again square one.
00:27:29 So, just looking at one metric may not be as, may not give you as conviction for a reversal,
00:27:36 but if it is coupled with one or two more indicators, which also scream oversold.
00:27:40 So, for example, the RSI, if it is in a heavily oversold territory at an absolute bottom of the last 12 months,
00:27:47 that should be sort of a strong call for a reversal. At this point in time, it is definitely caution advice,
00:27:53 not calling for a reversal, but there is a slight hope looking at the way Bank Nifty is positioned.
00:27:58 Look, I'm looking at that advance decline ratio and it's not looking too hopeful.
00:28:02 Vijay Chopra also with us, MD&C of Enoch Ventures. Good afternoon, Vijay Chopra.
00:28:07 Great to have you on the show today. Are you seeing a slight recovery,
00:28:11 slight recovery last few minutes, ever so slightly, at least on the Nifty coming in.
00:28:16 Now, the smart investor will look at buying opportunities and the question will be,
00:28:23 will you see a turnaround as early as tomorrow morning or a few more days of pain? What would you reckon?
00:28:29 I reckon, Tamanna, that, you know, I've been talking about this pain since almost January.
00:28:34 And, you know, this is what I was time and again telling and I think Neeraj would agree to what I said.
00:28:40 Several times I said book profits, wherever there is euphoria, wherever there is fraud,
00:28:44 wherever there is, you know, we've seen irrational valuations, especially, you know,
00:28:50 when I said railway stocks went to book profits. Some of the stocks were down 20%.
00:28:55 So I would recommend that, you know, wait for a while if you want to get into it afresh.
00:29:01 I've been talking about shifting from small caps, mid caps to large caps.
00:29:05 So nothing has happened to an ITC or a Kotak or an HDFC Bank, so to say L&T,
00:29:10 which has a slight 2% fall or a Hindustan Libor or a Darbar.
00:29:15 You know, we have not seen these stocks falling down by 20%.
00:29:19 So definitely, definitely the call is that, you know, better stay away from,
00:29:24 from mid caps and small caps and be into the larger ones, larger companies, which are better.
00:29:29 They haven't moved. You know, look at these companies, HDFC Bank, ITC.
00:29:33 ITC yesterday I recommended on a channel that I have a target of 800 on this stock.
00:29:38 And what a wonderful opening today we have seen.
00:29:40 And the entire block was done at 400 rupees and the stock has been holding up
00:29:45 in spite of the carnage in the market.
00:29:47 So all said and done, be in the large cap space and wait for a while.
00:29:50 Let the dust settle down. There's no hurry. Markets are not going to close down tomorrow.
00:29:54 There would be opportunities galore, you know, in the markets.
00:29:58 And I think that, you know, these, these corrections are healthy and they should happen.
00:30:03 And they were imminent. And I think that, you know, there might be some more pain around the corner.
00:30:08 But yes, markets would come back sharply.
00:30:11 I take the point when Nirav says that, you know, when the PCR Nifty is 0.5 and Bank Nifty is 0.6.
00:30:19 So markets are definitely oversold.
00:30:21 But we really don't know whether it's going to be tomorrow or Friday or maybe Monday.
00:30:25 Who knows that, you know, but markets should rebound.
00:30:28 We are not going to see any, you know, you know, major.
00:30:33 I don't think that it's going to rebound today.
00:30:36 But yes, you know, it's round the corner, maybe a couple of days or maybe tomorrow.
00:30:40 I really don't know that.
00:30:43 OK, fair point. Let's also get in a quick view from Dilip Bhatt.
00:30:47 He joins in right now. Needs no introduction, really.
00:30:51 Dilip, thanks so much for taking the time out.
00:30:53 What are you observing? Is this the broader end of the spectrum, particularly PSUs, real estate, etc.?
00:31:01 Will this last or you reckon some bit of money buying might come in?
00:31:07 Thanks a lot, Neeraj, for inviting me.
00:31:11 I think, surely, I think market looks very, very apprehensive.
00:31:18 Needless to say that the sell-off has been pretty bad.
00:31:23 But once again, Neeraj, it's the same old story that we always hear that the greed has overtaken.
00:31:29 You may keep on blaming X, Y, Z for whatever has been the fall.
00:31:33 But the moot point is it was the greed, especially in the mid-cap and the small-cap.
00:31:40 I think people were extrapolating one or two years and planning for next four or five years.
00:31:45 And that doesn't really happen with the mid-caps and small-caps.
00:31:49 They still have to show, demonstrate enough track record.
00:31:53 So having said that, I think, yes, markets still continue to look a little more apprehensive.
00:31:59 Even a further fall from this level cannot be ruled out because the valuations are much significantly ahead of the fundamentals without any doubt.
00:32:08 And India will remain ahead of the – I mean, the valuations will remain ahead of the fundamentals.
00:32:13 But from the current level perspective, I think one should still wait and watch and may not be in a hurry to buy in the falling market immediately.
00:32:22 Point well taken. But just before we let you go, Dilip, the other question is whenever you do or whenever the dust settles,
00:32:34 let's say during the earnings, just before the earnings season or otherwise,
00:32:38 where are those pockets where there might be, which might be the first ports of call because the growth story out there looks attractive.
00:32:47 Because currently everything is getting butchered.
00:32:50 So, well, I think if one were to discriminate, I think the front lines have fallen.
00:32:59 But they haven't fallen so much because of course they have not risen so much.
00:33:03 But other than the front lines, the market is in very, is in a shambles.
00:33:09 So, I would say that rather than sectors, I would still say that going forward it will be much more stock specific.
00:33:17 You know, for example, in defense, if you are going to talk about defense and take the entire sector up,
00:33:23 I think that is not how it's going to go up in future.
00:33:25 We still have a few companies where they will have to demonstrate their quarterly results,
00:33:29 they will have to demonstrate cash flow, they will have to demonstrate the working capital intensity of the business.
00:33:34 And all that will have to be considered.
00:33:36 And that is where I think, I mean, people are going to discriminate between good and the bad.
00:33:43 And that is what we will see in the coming quarter and maybe in the first quarter of the next year.
00:33:47 So, I think we still have about two quarters where I think a lot of decisions will play out based on the performances that we expect from some of these companies.
00:33:57 Dilip Bhatt, Tamannaah here. Great to speak with you on this show today.
00:34:02 And just to the point that you made of greed and the greed that we were seeing in the market, small cap and mid cap,
00:34:09 the point is why now for, you know, the impact of that to come in.
00:34:15 The conversation has been on from the last several months that there will be a sell-off, valuations are rich, they are concerning.
00:34:21 I am just wondering about the timing coming ahead of the election season, coming ahead of the stress test for mutual funds.
00:34:29 Do you see that as an immediate trigger perhaps?
00:34:33 Sure, I think as you very rightly said, all of us were talking about, you know, the kind of run-up that we have seen, the mid cap and the small cap.
00:34:45 But you always require certain trigger points strong enough to shake the market.
00:34:51 And maybe what RBI has done, what CB is very rightly doing, so it tries to give a warning, the stress test that they are talking about for the mutual funds.
00:35:01 And you see that one of the mutual funds has stopped taking money for the mid caps and then you also have so many other small related things about some operator being the XY.
00:35:12 So I think all these things have played, have acted in concert to spook the markets at this particular moment.
00:35:18 I think this time round, probably some of these factors were strong enough to upset the markets.
00:35:24 Having said that, do you see a quick enough recovery?
00:35:28 Because this has been a market, Mr. Bhatt, that has seen a buy-on dips and buy-on opportunity every time.
00:35:33 You still have now a robust and relatively deeper bank of domestic investors, mutual fund, you know, mutual funds who have to deploy SIPs.
00:35:42 So is it fair to say that this is not going to be a prolonged period of pain or is that being optimistic?
00:35:48 I don't think that it's going to be a prolonged period of pain.
00:35:53 But the question is, if in a short while it corrects very severely, then who's to say why it should last for such a long time?
00:36:01 Having said that, I think one more factor that we should not forget, which has been negative for the market but may turn out to be positive,
00:36:10 is that FIR holding has fallen to its lowest since 2008 or 2009.
00:36:15 I think that makes, that sets the stage that maybe post couple of months we will find them trying to enter into the markets with a lot more clarity on the political front.
00:36:26 I think, which is even obvious even otherwise at the moment, but still I think we'll find some of the FIRs coming in and trying to buy.
00:36:35 And that's probably something which we think is also going to help the market and provide a solid statement, apart from the domestic investors and the mutual funds.
00:36:43 Absolutely. That's a big point. The FII money is still sitting on the sidelines and has to be deployed at some point.
00:36:50 You just have to sort of grin and bear it for now. Thank you so much Dilip Bhatt for speaking with us.
00:36:56 Thank you so much.
00:36:57 Absolute pleasure. We're about 10 minutes from market close and I wouldn't say that the picture is pretty, but it's, you know, maybe less painful than it was at the lowest point of the day.
00:37:11 Nifty, by the way, slipped back under the 22,000 mark. So this is a market which is trying to find its feet quite desperately.
00:37:18 Vijay Chopra, Rahul Sharma with us. You know, very quick last calls that we can take and Rahul Sharma, I'll start with you.
00:37:26 What would you pick up right now? Would you have a BTST call at all? An STBT call? Anything specific on your radar?
00:37:35 Yeah, so it would be a BTST, dare I say. It is the private banks which are, you know, shining through, especially the top tier private banks.
00:37:45 And speaking of ICICI bank, the chart setup looks pretty solid in the falling market scenario.
00:37:51 And especially since Nifty is heavily oversold, one bounce back could mean that, you know, shots could get trapped.
00:37:57 So I would rather go with the BTST long on ICICI bank, buy here with a day's low stop loss, very small stop loss of 1073, which is about 11 rupees for the current market price.
00:38:08 And there is a possibility on the way up, we may see the stock hitting 1120 on the upside.
00:38:15 OK, so watch out for a well, it's clearly expecting specific pockets to do well. Rahul, can I ask a follow up?
00:38:27 So while you are constructive on maybe some banks which might be holding out, what about the worst performing sectors, the two of them,
00:38:33 which is PSUs and real estate? What stands out here? Do you reckon there could be more pain?
00:38:42 Because fundamentally, some of the promises that the businesses have made, both in real estate as well as the PSUs are actually OK.
00:38:50 Yeah, so, you know, these two sectors have, you know, enjoyed their performance and, you know, finally we are seeing a crack below the 50 day moving averages.
00:39:00 You know, today's correction, like I said, has been a broad based correction. So until yesterday, it was only the small caps and the lower mid caps, which are feeling the heat of the selling pressure.
00:39:10 But now we're seeing a broad based sell off where, except a few private banks and a few FMCG stocks, almost everything is gone under the hammer and we're seeing selling pressure across the board.
00:39:24 Now, all depends on how we behave at the 22,000 mark. We've broken that level. Maybe, you know, since markets tend to do things in excess on both the sides.
00:39:36 So we may sort of, you know, if we see tomorrow's opening and tomorrow also the follow up selling is there, we could see these two sectors, you know, taking further hits.
00:39:44 Generally, we've seen 50 day moving average breaking generally calls for a correction extended down to the 100 day moving averages, which is another, you know, at least 8 to 10% away.
00:39:56 So, you know, it definitely looks a scary scenario at this point in time. But I think we should wait for a day or two for the follow up, you know, sell off to happen.
00:40:05 A day or two for the follow on sell off to happen. The problem is what if you miss the boat? Vijay Chopra, anything that is on your buy list if the price is right right now?
00:40:17 I think sit on cash. Cash is king is the call. Wait on the sidelines. If at all you have cash, if at all you are, you know, fortunate enough to have cash in your bank or your trading account, just wait for the dust to settle.
00:40:32 As I said earlier, no rush. The market is not going to close tomorrow. No pressure at all. Secondly, people who are holding large caps, no worries. People who are in small caps and mid caps, wait for a bounce back.
00:40:44 I think that markets are so oversold, there is a short covering around the corner. Really cannot comment on where it's going to be, but it's definitely around the corner.
00:40:54 So don't sell in a panic. You know, selling in a panic definitely, you know, never helps in the market. So whatever is gone is gone. Just wait.
00:41:05 I think markets are going to rebound. Not sure about the stocks, but if at all you get a bounce back in small caps and mid caps, get out and be invested in large caps and better mid caps.
00:41:18 So you would, are you saying that you would sort of review and completely redirect? Because you're saying if you see a bounce, get out of some of these small cap counters and redirect to large caps and mid caps.
00:41:33 Yes, definitely. I think that, you know, there are still a lot of opportunities, as I said, in the market. Market keeps on giving you opportunities.
00:41:40 I think defense is a wonderful sector. Look at the order books of all the bigger companies and they have corrected quite a bit. I think 20, 25%, 30% from the top.
00:41:48 So I think that defense stocks are fantastic. I second Rahul where he says that, you know, private banks is the place where you can definitely look at the likes of HDFC Bank, which have corrected, Kodak Bank, which have corrected.
00:42:01 Even IDC, why not buy it for the longer term? And HUL, which looks good. So, but again, what's the hurry? And my point is that it's not necessary to trade daily in the markets.
00:42:13 So this is a wrong perception, wrong concept, trade daily in the markets. Do your research, let the markets decide the momentum on the downside or the upside.
00:42:23 So let's wait and let the dust settle down. There will be a great amount of opportunities where, and of course, you know, there is a lot of news around the SEBI chairman giving statements, you know, whatever happened in Dubai.
00:42:35 This gentleman was connected to a lot of companies, you know, through some Havala racket or stuff like that. And, you know, SEBI and the RBI coming heavily on NBFCs, IFL, JM Finance, you know, Paytm earlier.
00:42:48 So definitely there is something, you know, which the regulators want. The good thing is that market is not having leverage.
00:42:56 So the welcome steps, which SEBI, NSE and all have taken, the leverage is very less. So whenever the leverage is less, there's no crash.
00:43:05 So there might be corrections, but crash would never happen because leverage takes, you know, markets, fizzing heights.
00:43:12 And I think that leverage is very little in the market. So I'm not that worried that there's going to be a crash. Corrections are welcome and they should happen to make the market healthier.
00:43:22 Well, point well taken. Both of you, Vijay Chopra, thanks for joining in today and giving us your thoughts. Really appreciate your time as well.
00:43:33 Rahul, just before we wrap up, quick 30 second answer. What is that one factor or statistic from a technical or a derivative perspective that you watch out for tomorrow?
00:43:43 You know, we're not done yet. Probably 22,000 is what should decide. We are closing probably below that. The average should be below the 22,000 mark.
00:43:54 That opens way possibly for 21,500. So I'd rather be cautious here and not jump the gun at this point in time.
00:44:00 What about on the Bank Nifty, Rahul? Where are you seeing the levels going there?
00:44:07 Yeah, so Bank Nifty, like I said, relatively it is better placed, but if Nifty fails to find its feet, we may see a bit of pain over here as well.
00:44:15 And the brighter side is the higher high, higher low structure is still intact in Bank Nifty, which puts it right on top in case there is a reversal in the Nifty or a bounce back in the Nifty.
00:44:25 It is banks which should outperform.
00:44:30 Rahul, point well taken and which is why I think his call on ICICI Bank as a trading call is a brave one I might add on the market like this.
00:44:35 But well, thanks Rahul for joining in today. A minute and a half left for the markets to shut.
00:44:40 But suffice to say that no point looking at what the screen is showing. The screen is showing red.
00:44:45 I mean, maybe a hint of a pullback on the Nifty 50, but everything is getting sold into.
00:44:51 Bring up the mid caps and the small caps. That's where the pain has been. Right.
00:44:55 I mean, you look at the mid cap and the small cap index, look at the micro cap, look at the SME IPO index.
00:45:01 There is some serious pain there. Bring up the Nifty contributors.
00:45:06 That's all I can say, because mostly things are in the red, but for ITC.
00:45:10 So if you just look at the contributors list, show you some semblance of sanity in the banking and the financial space.
00:45:17 These are large caps, mind you, which are holding out OK and ITC at the top.
00:45:21 But this side is peppered, peppered with losses to everything economy linked.
00:45:27 And which is why this kind of mood. And just before Tamannaah takes over the market breadth,
00:45:32 we'll just show you how abysmal the broader end of the spectrum is performing.
00:45:36 78 advances only to 1946 declines. I haven't seen such an adverse advance decline ratio in a really, really long time.
00:45:46 So pain in the broader markets.
00:45:48 The tough thing to spot today is a trend. If everything is in a sea of red, then what is hurting most?
00:45:54 But having said that, if you pull up all of the relative charts, it is there is a clear story.
00:46:01 You talked about economy and other stocks, but look at all the indices.
00:46:04 If you could get those, the public sector banks are hurting, the PSUs are hurting the most.
00:46:10 The PSE index is about six, six and a half percent down. Media, metal, reality in that order, energy.
00:46:16 So all of your core economy in that sense, really, really hurting.
00:46:21 I don't know if there's a stock specific story or a sector specific story.
00:46:26 More so some of the factors that our experts spoke about.
00:46:30 15th of March seems to be a very important day. Stress test, electoral bonds,
00:46:36 a lot going on in terms of regulatory action. And maybe that's what to watch out for there.
00:46:41 There you have it. The Nifty has closed below the 22,000 mark today.
00:46:45 The Sensex nearly 930 points down during close.
00:46:49 Yes, it's looked wobbly and let's see what tomorrow holds in store.
00:46:52 I think maybe the global markets have a part to play tomorrow. Let's wait and watch.
00:46:55 But for now, from Tamanna and me and the team that has put this show together,
00:46:59 thanks so much for tuning in. Try and have a better evening.
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00:49:16 Well, this says it all, mayhem in the broader markets.
00:49:23 Because frankly, if you look at the index, and yes,
00:49:25 the index too has looked very wobbly today, 1.5% below 22,000.
00:49:31 And a lot of stocks falling like nine pins really.
00:49:34 But the broader end of the spectrum is where the pain has been.
00:49:36 Mid caps, micro cap, small cap,
00:49:40 that whole space has looked very, very ugly in the session today.
00:49:47 In about six days, the small cap index has lost 10% of its market value.
00:49:53 And that tells you a story or two really about what's really happening.
00:49:56 Bring up the nifty 50 heat map, and you will see the sea of red, very little green.
00:50:02 I mean, to an extent, some of these financials held out because they've
00:50:05 corrected in the recent past and not moved anywhere.
00:50:08 And ITC because of the news, 4.5%.
00:50:10 But otherwise, everything linked to the economy has looked wobbly today.
00:50:14 From a power grid to a coal India to an Adani Enterprises, NTPC,
00:50:18 Tata Steel, Adani Ports, the whole economy link pocket has looked very, very weak.
00:50:23 And on a day when Reliance and some of the others correct and
00:50:28 are amongst the top losers by weight on the index, very little that the index can do.
00:50:32 But the broader end of the spectrum, if you see, or
00:50:34 if you just look at the sectoral performances once, and
00:50:37 then you look at the BSE 500 top losers.
00:50:39 So this is what sectorally happened.
00:50:41 And BSEs, top draw on the downside, media, metals,
00:50:46 energy, courtesy Reliance Industries, and real estate, another 5.5% lost on this one,
00:50:52 amongst the worst performing sectors over the last five days.
00:50:54 So clearly, there is a lot of pain in a bunch of these economy facing indices.
00:50:59 And then if you just look at the broader end of the spectrum, sure an ITC stood out,
00:51:03 sure maybe a couple of others like Ajanta, Abbott, etc.
00:51:06 may have done okay.
00:51:07 But the list here, look at this and across the board, right?
00:51:10 Because you have a PSU called Rides, then you have Tanla Platforms,
00:51:14 you have Mishra Dhadu Engineers India, but you also have Rain Industries,
00:51:18 you also have India Assurance.
00:51:20 So across the board, you saw some selling and
00:51:23 it was difficult to single out one particular index as being the lone ranger of sorts.
00:51:29 So pain across the board, the last point that I will make is some key levels like
00:51:35 some quant indicators or the nifty PCR are indicating that maybe just maybe,
00:51:40 we are a tad bit oversold.
00:51:42 And there might be a chance that there could be a bounce.
00:51:45 Does that bounce get bought into?
00:51:46 Difficult to say that, but just keep that in mind.
00:51:49 I've not highlighted too many other stocks because, Frankie,
00:51:51 you look at the mid cap and the small cap list of companies and
00:51:55 you'll only see pain there.
00:51:57 So that notwithstanding, the only thing to look forward to is that whether there
00:52:01 could be a bounce in a session or two and will that bounce get sold into?
00:52:06 Thanks guys.
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