- Index to outperform actively managed funds?
- Top short-duration mutual fund picks
Niraj Shah in conversation with Kshitiz Mahajan & Prableen Bajpai on ' The Mutual Fund Show.' #NDTVProfitLive
- Top short-duration mutual fund picks
Niraj Shah in conversation with Kshitiz Mahajan & Prableen Bajpai on ' The Mutual Fund Show.' #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00 Shriti Marjan, Managing Partner and CEO of Complete Circle Wealth and Praveen Bajpai,
00:04 Founder of Infix Research and Analytics.
00:06 Praveen and Shrithi, thank you so much both of you for joining us on the show.
00:10 I will, you know, I will start off with something that is very, very recent or has a bit of
00:16 a recency bias and has been spoken about enough, but a lot of people have been asking questions.
00:20 So I thought it was pertinent to talk about what are the short duration funds that could
00:25 be thought of ahead of a rate cut cycle.
00:28 I remember, distinctly remember, I talking to both of you on this topic, but because
00:32 it's happened just post budget and there has been a bit of a discussion there, can we just
00:36 revisit that?
00:37 So Praveen, I'll start with you on this one.
00:38 Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:40 Great to be on the show.
00:43 Short duration funds are typically those funds where the maturity duration is between one
00:47 to three years.
00:48 And of course, we've seen the interim budget, you know, set base for how the macroeconomic
00:52 stability is going to be in India.
00:55 And of course, this is not for the interest rate movement that is already visible now.
01:01 At this point, I would say that if you look at, you know, firstly, the numbers that we've
01:07 seen in the recent announcement by the finance minister, what we're looking at is consolidation
01:12 on the fiscal deficit by about 80 basis points and then further 60 basis points consolidation,
01:19 which is going to be great for the macroeconomic stability.
01:22 And at this juncture, when we are going to look at some inflows into the bond markets
01:27 next year with inclusion of the index and overall interest in the Indian bond markets,
01:34 given the current situation in China, I feel not just the short duration funds, because
01:39 they're from the one to three year point of view, I think the longer duration funds are
01:43 still very, very attractive.
01:45 And at this point, there can be a tactical call made in the longer duration funds.
01:50 Where we've seen, you know, the yields come down by a bit.
01:54 But I think with interest rates going in the coming quarters, probably that could settle
02:00 somewhere about 6.5% by next year.
02:03 So I think there is room for a tactical call in the longer duration space.
02:08 The shorter duration funds are a suitable bet for those leaders where I feel that they
02:14 do not want any negative surprises, you know, up or downside.
02:19 And that's the place for investors who are looking at, you know, stable sort of returns
02:24 in the current scenario.
02:26 Because any sort of movement, be it the policy decision making or the interest rates, that
02:31 would not impact the space.
02:33 And one more sector or space which I feel is very, very attractive at this point is
02:38 the state development loans.
02:40 That's much higher, the yields are much higher at around 7.8% as compared to the government
02:45 securities.
02:46 And we typically see the states borrowing more in the second half of the fiscal year.
02:51 And you know, that could slow down in the April to June quarter.
02:57 And if we see inflows coming into the bond markets, there will be a shortage of supply
03:01 and higher demand.
03:03 And them being sovereign, again, there is no credit risk.
03:06 So I feel that's another space which investors can see at this point in time.
03:11 Okay, interesting thoughts.
03:13 By the way, viewers, remember, you can send in your queries on WhatsApp to the number
03:17 on your screen.
03:18 Today, too, there are about two or three queries that we've gotten.
03:21 So we'll try and take those as well.
03:23 But Shatish, any thoughts on this?
03:27 Praveen believes that there is merit in not just the short duration bonds, which might
03:33 be great for the short term volatility fluctuation, but the longer duration as well in a couple
03:38 of categories there.
03:39 What are your thoughts?
03:40 I think very well put across, Praveen, as always.
03:44 You know, but I just want to add to what she said.
03:48 The curve is almost flat between three years and 10 years.
03:51 It yields between 7.2 to 7.6, 7.7.
03:54 That's what the curve is.
03:55 And if you really want to play this interest rate cut cycle, I think G-6 fund makes much
04:03 more sense.
04:04 Because if you have a short term bond fund also, you still carry the risk of if the interest
04:12 rate will go up and then how things will work.
04:14 There's modified duration across short term funds are also between one and a half to two
04:18 percent.
04:19 Obviously, you do not have negative returns.
04:20 But then, you know, I think the real juices is on the longer duration side, where if you
04:27 are at a peak of interest rate hike, or let's say you are expecting rate cut to come in
04:31 the next one year's time, I think once you look at a combination of a short term fund
04:36 and a G-6 fund, that's what my sense is.
04:39 And if you are there for one and a half years, one more half years of horizon, which is there
04:43 with you, then you can actually make double digit return in a debt fund.
04:48 It is very much possible for you to do that.
04:50 And otherwise, also, there is no tax benefit now for you to keep holding it for three years.
04:54 So if you have some money, which is with you, which you don't require in recent times, let's
05:00 say for a year and a half or two, you can do that.
05:02 So there is this term called modified duration in all the funds.
05:06 So I'll just make it simple.
05:07 It is just it is nothing but it's my volatility or sensitivity of your price movement of a
05:13 bond vis-a-vis interest rate high.
05:15 So, you know, most of the funds, short term funds have a more modified duration of between
05:19 one and a half to two and a half, three years.
05:21 But G-6, depending on what G-6 you're buying, some fund managers that do dynamic buying
05:26 of G-6 like Suhail Dawood, he does for a G-6 fund.
05:30 Again, there are no recommendations.
05:31 I'm just giving an example that the modified duration is nine and a half years.
05:36 So one percent rate cut means that you will have a capital appreciation of nine and a
05:39 half, which is over and above your coupon on the G-6.
05:42 SBI has six and a half years of, you know, modified duration.
05:47 ICF is running a four and a half year of modified duration.
05:50 So you know, a good combination of a short term fund, let's say if you have a hundred
05:54 rupees and a guild fund is a better way of looking at it, where you can target somewhere
06:00 pre-tax between nine to ten percent return on a portfolio basis next one year's time
06:04 on a fixed income side.
06:05 So there's no guarantee of this, but I'm saying that if the rate cut will happen, then capital
06:09 appreciation will come in immediately, not wait for a year or two to come.
06:13 So that is something that you should look at and look for those assortment houses where
06:19 you have seen a consistency of a fund manager and where you have seen very less accidents
06:24 in the past.
06:25 I think that's the right way of looking at it.
06:27 Not as recommendations, but are there examples of such houses?
06:31 I'll quickly take that before we move to the next topic.
06:34 But Shritesh, any examples?
06:38 So I think on short term, I like, you know, this is something which I like, HDFC short
06:43 term, ICICI short term, Nippon short term.
06:45 These are the three funds which right now are good and on G-Sec, as I said, Bandhan
06:51 is good, SBI is good.
06:53 These are the two G-Sec funds which have a good modified duration, which can actually
06:59 give you a good return if rate cut will happen.
07:02 Got it.
07:03 Praveen, same thing to you, not as a recommendation, but as an example so that people can study
07:06 them from your preference list.
07:10 So Neeraj, I'll just add another category here before I give some names.
07:15 I think that is the dynamic bond category.
07:19 And if investors are not sure, you know, they want to capitalize on this futuristic interest
07:24 rates that we're looking at, but are not very unsure, but are unsure, you know, then when
07:29 would they exit that fund?
07:31 I think for those investors, probably they can look at an actively managed fund, which
07:35 is, you know, dynamically managed by the fund manager.
07:37 They know how to take the calls.
07:39 So part of the portfolios are positioned with G-Sec, you know, longer duration.
07:43 They also have the buffer for shorter duration.
07:46 So maybe that is also something that investors can look at.
07:49 Some names in the dynamic category would be from ICICI, they can look at Bantan.
07:53 And in the short duration funds, again, I think the credible names are like Shruthi
07:58 mentioned HDFC, SBI, ICICI, Bantan.
08:02 I think these are fund houses which have proved themselves even during the credit crisis.
08:06 So I think names, you know, with credible track records and no incidence of credit,
08:12 I feel I would like to go with those.
08:15 Okay.
08:16 Okay.
08:17 A quick segue into the equity side now, because, and Shruthi, I'll start with you on this.
08:22 PSUs have been the talk of town for the last 12 months, more so in the last one month.
08:28 I was trying to understand if people have investments in the PSE ETF or any of the PSU
08:32 funds.
08:33 Who wants to book some, take some money off the table?
08:37 Any thoughts here?
08:39 So given an option, if I have money, you know, on the PSU side, where the valuations are
08:44 really stretched, I think it is wise.
08:46 So there are many big companies which are still at a reasonable valuation.
08:50 They started moving, the returns are good.
08:52 So one is the price movement which is there.
08:54 So you might be seeing 50% return, 60% return, or maybe doubling of few of the names on the
08:59 PSU banks as well as PSU companies, number of them side.
09:02 But here I'm talking about the valuation part also.
09:05 Having said that, most of these companies, you could see last 19 years returns have not
09:08 been very good.
09:09 So because the rally has been so sharp and in some of the cases, the valuations are very
09:13 high.
09:14 I think there, I agree with you.
09:16 If it's my portfolio, I would have booked a profit at these valuations and look at those
09:21 businesses where the valuations are reasonable.
09:24 So it is, I think it does make sense to look at that part because sometimes it looks scary
09:32 because you have a valuation which are in a range of 40, 50 or maybe 60 trillion.
09:37 But at the same time, the earning growth expected for next four, five year guidance is between
09:42 14, 15 or maybe 16, 17, not more than that.
09:45 So that is very tricky.
09:46 So I think till when this can continue, I'm not pretty sure.
09:52 I think it's good to look at booking some, taking some money off the table.
09:56 - Praveen, you believe that too?
09:59 - PSUs have done exceptionally well and I would partially agree with what Shruthi was
10:06 saying that, you know, being a sector or a thematic fund, I think it's always good to
10:11 book some profits when there is such a run up.
10:15 Having said that, if you look at, you know, 2018 to 2020, three years of negative returns
10:21 and then of course there's been recovery.
10:23 And now what we saw in 2023 was the year when we saw exceptional returns by PSUs.
10:29 But somebody who has been investing through an SIP, you know, they would still have XIR
10:35 of let's say 23 to 24% if they had invested even from 2016.
10:41 So if you're an SIP investor, you have a long-term view, then it's okay because any sort of a
10:46 connection in the markets is also only give you an opportunity to buy on dips.
10:51 But if your goals are closer, it was a tactical call made for a specific purpose, then definitely,
10:57 you know, booking some profits makes sense.
11:00 But having said that, these PSUs I think are also one of the biggest beneficiaries of India
11:05 Growth story.
11:07 They have been and I think would continue to do so.
11:09 But obviously the sharp increase in the, you know, evaluations and the kind of run up that
11:15 we've seen, it always is a good idea to sort of have some profits, you know, take some
11:22 profits off the table and then decide, you know, if you want to continue with the remaining
11:27 or enter at better levels.
11:29 Okay, there you heard it.
11:30 We need to slip into a quick break with that view.
11:33 But we'll continue our conversation around ETFs.
11:35 There are a couple of queries around that, not necessarily just the PSU ETFs.
11:38 We'll talk about that and more on the other side of this break.
11:41 Stay tuned.
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14:14 Back with the Mutual Funds show. Time to take some queries
14:16 because one of the queries is pertaining to an ETF,
14:18 a different kind of an ETF, but
14:20 nevertheless, there is a query
14:22 that we have from Dyaneshwar
14:24 of Mumbai.
14:26 He is age 72 years
14:28 and his query is
14:30 is it the right time to invest in a gold
14:32 ETF since the
14:34 stakes are high? He owns
14:36 some physical gold and nominal
14:38 gold ETFs.
14:40 Any thoughts here?
14:42 Praveen, can I come
14:44 to you on this one?
14:46 He wants to invest
14:48 in gold ETF? He is asking whether
14:50 it's the right time. Yes.
14:52 Okay. So, you know, gold has
14:54 actually seen a rally. It's the
14:56 silver jubilee of gold.
14:58 For 25 years, we've seen in
15:00 dollar terms, gold prices go up
15:02 and gold, I think,
15:04 always has a very crucial role
15:06 to play in any portfolio.
15:08 It's a stabilizer. It's a diversifier.
15:10 You know, adding a
15:12 new asset class, of course.
15:14 Having said that, I think if he's looking
15:16 to invest in an ETF,
15:18 he can probably take the FOF route
15:20 and invest again in a staggered
15:22 barrel through an SIP.
15:24 But he needs to understand that
15:26 the taxation now is not very
15:28 favorable. Whatever gains he makes
15:30 on the gold ETF or
15:32 on the FOF would be taxable
15:34 at slant. So, I think, Neeraj,
15:36 if he's looking to invest in gold, sovereign gold
15:38 bonds would make better sense
15:40 and that can be done in tranches.
15:42 So, every time there is
15:44 an issue for the SGBs,
15:46 he can have a certain allocation. So, overall
15:48 decide his allocation towards gold
15:50 and then pocket in tranches
15:52 in the next one or two years.
15:54 Okay.
15:56 So, that's on gold ETFs.
15:58 Gyaneshwar, I hope you got
16:00 the answer that you wanted.
16:02 We'll move on to another query because
16:04 there is only as much time on the show.
16:06 The next query is from Jyoti Raja.
16:08 Jyoti Raja says, "I've been maintaining
16:10 my emergency fund in a combination
16:12 of savings bank and liquid funds.
16:14 With the new tax rule, should I use
16:16 arbitrage funds instead?
16:18 What are the advantages?"
16:20 I believe the answer is a
16:22 yes from Shruthi, but I'll still ask
16:24 him to give
16:26 his response.
16:28 Anything which is less than two months,
16:30 you should keep
16:32 parking that fund in your liquid funds.
16:34 There's a exit load of one month
16:36 in arbitrage fund, but I still believe that
16:38 somebody wants to park in arbitrage fund,
16:40 you should look at parking it above
16:42 two months. You are on the right
16:44 note that yes, arbitrage fund is much
16:46 more tax friendly also.
16:48 Let's say if you require funds in five, six months time
16:50 also, you can still
16:52 get away with by paying
16:54 15% tax only and at the same time
16:56 a higher return. So, right now, spreads,
16:58 you normally get to know about
17:00 spreads in the beginning of a month only. You can
17:02 check from your asset development company in which you are parking.
17:04 Spreads are really good and you can
17:06 expect
17:08 this month also 6, 6.5%
17:10 return, annualized basis
17:12 return on arbitrage side, which
17:14 make it post-tax 5.5, 5.75
17:16 for you, post-tax up to
17:18 15%. So, that's almost double
17:20 our post-tax return, as a
17:22 saving bank or liquid fund returns, post-tax
17:24 if you are in higher bracket.
17:26 Now, these are people who are,
17:28 let's say, in no tax
17:30 or low tax bracket. There, we
17:32 have to see that
17:34 how things will shape up. Right now,
17:36 spreads are good. It looks good.
17:38 You can look at arbitrage part.
17:40 But, tomorrow's spreads will not be that
17:42 attractive. At that time, you have to take a call
17:44 whether liquid funds are
17:46 giving you better returns or
17:48 arbitrage is giving you better returns.
17:50 Because, arbitrage funds
17:52 is treated like a capital appreciation.
17:54 Taxation is like equity. Irrespective
17:56 of whatever bracket you are in, you have
17:58 to give a capital gain long term
18:00 or short term. So, that is something
18:02 once spreads will
18:04 narrow down, then you have to take a call.
18:06 Okay.
18:08 Well, and that is
18:10 a pertinent point as well.
18:12 Now, to the burning
18:14 question in everybody's mind is about
18:16 more than PSUs.
18:18 Because PSUs may be recency biased.
18:20 But, what within the small cap
18:22 universe is worth staying invested in?
18:24 Because, everything is expensive and
18:26 small caps are maligned as the ones which have
18:28 run up too fast, too soon, lot of
18:30 valuation bubble, etc. Surely, everything is not
18:32 like that. So, there might be some small caps
18:34 and some small cap funds, therefore,
18:36 which might be a great place to
18:38 stay in. So, we are kind of inverting the problem
18:40 as Charlie Munger says, right? Problem
18:42 that always inverts. I am inverting.
18:44 Small caps are expensive. Yes,
18:46 you should profit book. Yes.
18:48 Surely, there is something that is worth staying
18:50 invested in. What is that?
18:52 Alright. So, just like PSUs,
18:56 Neeraj, even the small
18:58 caps, if you look at from 2006 onwards,
19:00 if you are an SIP investor, it has given you
19:02 high double digit returns.
19:04 So, at this point, if you are looking to
19:06 make fresh allocations,
19:08 definitely, I would say, the trend is
19:10 that when there is a strong
19:12 run up, the index tends to outperform.
19:14 And, in
19:16 2023, only 5 small cap
19:18 schemes were able to
19:20 outperform the index. At this point,
19:22 I would say that, look at actively managed
19:24 funds in the small cap space.
19:26 Look at those schemes which are
19:28 investing in sector leaders, are looking
19:30 at quality rather than
19:32 following momentum. So,
19:34 few names would be ICI, SEI,
19:36 Tata, I think SBI.
19:38 They haven't performed that great,
19:40 but I think
19:42 they will have the potential of delivering
19:44 good returns over the next
19:46 5 years, perhaps. And,
19:48 if you are looking at small caps,
19:50 investors also need to tone down their
19:52 expectations for this year. And,
19:54 again, it has to be long term investing. So, you can't
19:56 look at 40-50 returns in the past 1 year
19:58 and then think of replicating it.
20:00 So, till the time you're doing it
20:02 as an SIP investor or doing STPs,
20:04 I think you are in the safe zone. And,
20:06 you have to be prepared for those
20:08 corrections which can be anywhere between
20:10 20-40-60% as well.
20:12 Okay.
20:16 Shitej, as a mutual fund
20:18 investor, invested in
20:20 some mutual funds or some small cap
20:22 funds, and she is wanting
20:24 to know what is your advice on whether
20:26 she should stay invested or book profits?
20:28 What would you say?
20:30 If you have 5-7 years views, I think
20:32 just stay invested. Let's assume she has 5-7
20:34 years views. And, you should stay invested.
20:36 My sense is,
20:38 there can be years when
20:40 it can actually give you trouble in terms of
20:42 the way it has gone up, 5 years return on
20:44 most of the funds are around 20-23%
20:46 compounding. And, we have done some data
20:48 crunching. There are a few funds who are still
20:50 trading their industry average
20:52 and index
20:54 average, not on the return side,
20:56 but on various parameters
20:58 like price to earnings, price to book value,
21:00 price to sales and various other numbers.
21:02 So, look at those funds. Second, look at
21:04 those funds where there is a longevity of fund manager
21:06 with the fund house and with the fund.
21:08 Third, look at those funds where
21:10 number of stocks are
21:12 little longer because
21:14 right now the fund size has become so big
21:16 and 65% by definition
21:18 you have to maintain in
21:20 small cap space only. So, the better
21:22 diversified larger portfolio is
21:24 a better small cap fund
21:26 as we speak. So, you know,
21:28 so, I think
21:30 small cap will keep on giving you a better
21:32 return. But, then
21:34 anybody who is coming in new as well as
21:36 existing investor, if you have 7+ year horizon,
21:38 I think that one space which
21:40 you look at. But, again, it should not be more than
21:42 15-20% of your portfolio. So,
21:44 irrespective of how much return it is giving,
21:46 irrespective of whatever risk appetite you have,
21:48 just maintain around
21:50 20% of small cap in your
21:52 portfolio.
21:54 Okay. So,
21:56 and you know, viewers, in some
21:58 sense, I think that's a good point because if you are
22:00 investing for a 5-year perspective,
22:02 one, you are not worried if the fund
22:04 would correct a little bit, if anything,
22:06 if you have an SIP going,
22:08 you will get to buy it at lower levels and
22:10 the problem that happens as with stocks
22:12 and funds that if you miss the bus
22:14 and if you not bought it now and if the
22:16 NAB moves higher or the stock price moves higher,
22:18 very difficult to then convince yourself that you
22:20 will go out and buy it at
22:22 a higher "price".
22:24 So, bear that in
22:26 mind for sure.
22:28 Praveen, just wondering,
22:30 any names, anything that
22:32 you have kind of told your clients to
22:34 stay invested in the small cap side?
22:36 Sorry if I missed it early and if you said it earlier.
22:38 Right.
22:40 Small caps are needed because we know
22:42 that it's going to be a beneficiary of India's
22:44 small story probably more than the large cap space
22:46 with the unorganized sector becoming organized
22:48 probably into straight
22:50 rate cuts going forward.
22:52 I think the names I took
22:54 look good to me are Tata,
22:56 ICICI, SBI has been
22:58 one of the very credible fund houses in the space.
23:00 There are others as well
23:02 like Kotak, Nippon, which have managed their funds
23:04 very well, but I'll go with a slightly
23:06 smaller size of AUM
23:08 at this point. I think they have more agility
23:10 and given the
23:12 solution. So, my top two picks
23:14 would be Tata and ICICI.
23:16 Okay, fair call.
23:18 Well, Praveen as well as Shetij,
23:20 thank you so much for taking the time out and being with us
23:22 on the Mutual Fund Show and giving us your thoughts. Really appreciate
23:24 your time. Thank you.
23:26 Thank you.
23:28 What we're trying to do over the course of the next
23:30 few days is try and
23:32 ask you to send us the queries on this WhatsApp
23:34 number. You can email us, you can put it on
23:36 social media and we'll
23:38 try and pick up some of these queries in order to make
23:40 it a lot more beneficial and interactive
23:42 for you who are watching this.
23:44 So, please keep that in mind.
23:46 What we'll try and do is try and take
23:48 the relevant queries based on the
23:50 content that you're getting on that particular show.
23:52 So, if you've sent a query and if it's not answered on
23:54 today's show, rest assured we'll try
23:56 our best to take it on the subsequent
23:58 shows as and when the opportunity does
24:00 arise. Any which ways, Mutual Fund Investing
24:02 is for the long term, so your query need not
24:04 have relevance for the
24:06 day, if you will.
24:08 But with that small note,
24:10 keep in mind
24:12 that earnings coming in thick
24:14 and fast and I think we'll keep on addressing
24:16 just before we wrap up, camps.
24:18 It's relevant that the numbers have come out on the
24:20 Mutual Fund Show because they're amongst the
24:22 key stakeholders of this
24:24 Mutual Fund Beneficiary System.
24:26 I think the number is just about
24:28 5% growth, so nothing too dramatic.
24:30 Just about staying there in the stock,
24:32 about a percent, percent and a half.
24:34 That's all that we have
24:36 on this edition of the Mutual Fund Show.
24:38 Thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned to
24:40 LADP Profit for fresh news and updates.
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24:58 the next session will begin soon.
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