Markets React Positively A Day After Budget | India Market Close | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

NDTV Profit

- Analysing markets a day after #Budget2024 - Reviewing #WelspunLiving's Q3 results  Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive _______________________________________________________  For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/ #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

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01:22 >> All right, thanks for tuning into India Market Close.

01:24 We are counting down to the finance minister interview and

01:27 we have Deepali Goenka, a well-spun living Johnny in moments from now.

01:30 But let's take stock of the market and what they've done.

01:34 And so 0.82% now, less this look impressive.

01:38 The problem only is that we are off the highs of the day.

01:40 So we touched, we crossed 22,000, almost nudged 22,100, and

01:45 currently at 21,873, so it's been a bit of a down tick.

01:49 The advanced decline ratio should come up on your screen in moments from now,

01:54 just to show you if there's a pain at the broader end of the spectrum or no.

01:57 And rather, relative to what they would have done.

01:59 So as you saw, it started off really well, and now has petered down.

02:04 In the last hour and a half or two hours of trade,

02:07 we've had a bit of a narrowing of the breadth as well.

02:09 The heat map next on your screen, and remember, it was dominated by IT,

02:13 Adani ports, to an extent a couple of other stocks, and a very little rate.

02:17 We still have little rate, and Ayesha is still the top loser.

02:20 The gainers list though, has BPCL, HPIOC, ONGC, so

02:25 oil upstream is doing extremely well.

02:27 There is strength in Adani ports, but not that much.

02:30 NTPC, Coal India, Power Grid show that the rally in the power stocks is well and

02:34 truly alive.

02:35 And if you just look at the broader end of the spectrum, Tamannaa as well,

02:39 the likes of INOX, WIND, Suzlon, etc.

02:42 Just show that somehow power remains that sector,

02:45 that people log in at the first sight of an issue.

02:47 What is the broader end of the spectrum showing?

02:49 >> Absolutely, a broader end of the spectrum also participating in this, but

02:53 BPCL up 10% is really telling you the extent of the story, quite astonishing.

02:58 We're going to look at a stock that's not doing too well.

03:01 I have to talk about BTM, because there is just no reprieve in sight.

03:06 It's not moved from that 20% lower circuit for

03:09 the last two trading sessions, and you're seeing that follow on there.

03:14 NHPC has seen a set of large trades, and

03:17 we'll just pull up NHPC very quickly, another counter that has done well.

03:21 You'll find a lot of them in the market today.

03:23 I'll just quickly talk about EZ Trip.

03:24 Numbers have come out, and they're also considering a QIP of about 1,000 crores.

03:30 The entire hotel, hospitality, tourism space also has been having a pretty good day.

03:37 Just a last couple of them, Neeraj spoke about energy, Urja and

03:41 Vari, thanks to the solar push, have also seen a good uptick.

03:46 So thematic place, but overall the sentiment very, very positive this afternoon.

03:51 >> It is looking extremely constructive, and it's a packed show.

03:54 We have the FM interview coming up in about 25 minutes, but before that,

03:59 an interesting set of numbers that came out a couple of days ago, and

04:02 that's Wellspun Living, a strong quarterly performance.

04:05 You have to admit they recorded the highest quarterly revenue,

04:09 the company, and it came in on the back of decent growth on the EBITDA front as well.

04:15 67% uptick, YOY, on the EBITDA front, so strong showing there as well.

04:20 Mr. Deepali Goenka, MD and CEO of Wellspun Living joins us on the show.

04:23 Mr. Goenka, good having you.

04:24 Thanks for taking the time out.

04:25 Neeraj here, good afternoon.

04:27 Was this something that you had penciled in?

04:29 Because we were talking about how textile companies are having a mixed bag, but

04:33 you are no longer just a textile company, doing a lot more beyond that.

04:37 So is this something that was on expected lines?

04:39 And do you expect that this could be the new normal on the operational metrics,

04:43 margins in particular?

04:44 >> Yes, Neeraj, absolutely.

04:48 So we no longer are just home textiles.

04:50 As you know, we actually have these emerging businesses which are flooring,

04:56 advanced textiles and retail, which now contribute 35% to our top line today.

05:02 And have grown 21% year on year.

05:05 And this actually is going to be a mixed bag, which will have our core businesses,

05:10 which are our home textiles along with our emerging businesses,

05:14 which will contribute to our top line.

05:15 And of course, they're also going to be across the geographies globally.

05:20 So like the domestic business, which has grown 20% year on year and

05:24 10% quarter on quarter is an opportunity, as you see.

05:30 A flooring business which grew 46%, actually owing to even the global markets

05:35 where the China plus one is really playing very, very strongly.

05:40 And India, where hospitality institutions and

05:43 residential are again coming up strong.

05:46 And we also saw that in the budget's announcement as well,

05:49 that India towards the journey of 5 trillion.

05:52 How the focus is on the long term perspective of growth as well.

05:56 So yes, that is where it is going to be.

05:59 >> Expect the momentum to continue into, I know it's a bit seasonal, but

06:05 I'm just trying to understand, could quarter four or

06:08 the usual momentum could continue into FY25 as well on the growth front?

06:12 >> We are committed to our numbers in the terms of growth, Neeraj,

06:18 and it's absolutely, that's what we are working towards.

06:23 So as you know, we had committed to a growth of around 12% and

06:28 the EBITDA of around 15%.

06:32 We have actually devised a growth to 15% this year annually, and

06:36 we'll continue and take this on for the next year as well.

06:40 So this is absolutely intact as the way forward as well.

06:44 And we have always talked about 2026 as a number and a milestone.

06:48 That is like end of 2026 as a top line of 15,000 crores with a mix of

06:54 all the businesses where 45% will be our emerging businesses.

07:00 So yes, that's what we are working towards.

07:02 >> Considering what you're clocking in the current quarter,

07:04 people might be deceived to believe that that is a bit conservative as well.

07:08 But hey, under promising and over delivering is always great.

07:11 I was just wondering what I also meant to ask when you had talked about

07:14 growth was the quality of growth.

07:15 The return ratios have shown an improvement vis-a-vis 2023 or FY23,

07:21 if you will.

07:22 And again, it is a business which is dogged by various moving parts in your case.

07:28 But do you reckon that these double digit, mid-teen double digits or

07:32 higher teen double digit return on capital numbers could be

07:36 something that you would strive to achieve as a normal?

07:40 >> So you know what, last year dipped to 5.7% and

07:44 we spoke last year this time, this quarter.

07:47 This year, I mean, if I talk about this quarter three, it is analyzed like 15%.

07:54 And we had targeted this number for this quarter and for this year.

08:00 And we'll continue to have this double digit.

08:02 It has to be.

08:03 Even the projects that we're investing in, if you know about our Jackards in

08:08 manufacturing and pillows in America,

08:11 the Rossi prudence remains at 20% which we are taking on.

08:15 So yes, this is a very strong focus on whatever we do, Neeraj, actually.

08:20 >> Okay, in fact, let's talk about that.

08:23 We're talking about private CAPEX not quite coming through but

08:27 coming in bits and pieces.

08:29 You guys are doing some serious private CAPEX.

08:31 Talk to us about these.

08:32 When do the facilities come on stream?

08:34 And what do the various phases of CAPEX coming on stream mean for

08:38 growth numbers for you?

08:40 >> So yeah, let me give you a perspective here.

08:43 So earlier we spoke about a 30 megawatt power plant,

08:47 which we were talking about around 300 crores.

08:51 We have already spent around, say 230 right now.

08:56 For the next year, which I'm talking about is the Jackard towels and

09:00 our beach towels, which we are investing on a brownfield in our Anjar capacity.

09:07 There and pillow factory in America.

09:11 This actually gives us an, and these all will be operational half too.

09:14 But yes, that's going to be the kind of the shelf space.

09:19 And I always talk about the shelf space,

09:21 because I always say that it's not just towel and sheets.

09:23 It is also going to be related, complementing products.

09:28 So this actually gives us a wider kind of opportunity of products,

09:34 even in kitchen towels, fashion towels, and

09:36 beach towels owing to opportunities that are there where India is focused.

09:41 Pillow becomes, it's a great opportunity.

09:44 It is as big as the towels, 2.6 billion in America.

09:49 Gives us a shelf space, growth, and closer to the customers.

09:54 We already have our warehouses.

09:56 So yes, that becomes a good opportunity for us, Neeraj.

10:00 >> Okay, well, we wish you all the best for that and more.

10:04 Thanks so much for taking the time out and speaking with us.

10:06 Congratulations on a good quarter and all the best for many more.

10:08 >> Thank you, Neeraj.

10:10 Always great talking to you.

10:12 >> Likewise, likewise, Ms. Goenka.

10:14 Well, that's well spent living confident,

10:15 the Bali Goenka talking about targets set out and

10:19 internals as well, including return ratios.

10:21 By the way, before we take that breather and take that break,

10:24 I must say the oil and gas space is doing anything else but taking a breather.

10:28 Because just look at oil upstream or

10:31 oil downstream, there is just terrific gains packed there.

10:36 We come back after this break and talk a bit about that between me and

10:40 Tamanna as well as getting experts to talk about how do the charts look for

10:44 some of those stocks.

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13:14 >> Welcome back.

13:18 Markets in a buoyant mood, perhaps lit from the 22,000 levels and

13:23 from the day's high, but hitting strong and staying up strong nevertheless.

13:27 Can't say that there's weakness from any angle of the day's highs though.

13:31 What is really powering and fueling the markets truly is the power space,

13:36 oil and gas, even the renewables to be honest, but specifically on oil and gas.

13:41 An astonishing kind of a scenario, BPCL about 11% up, look at IOC, HPCL,

13:47 ONGC, all of them completely flying.

13:50 Now a couple of things to understand why this is happening or

13:53 factors around this and you know, Neeraj, so one, you have the crude play.

13:57 Crude price is up, instability there.

14:00 We were speaking with Mark Matthews this morning who says that he thinks US

14:04 will figure it out.

14:05 Biden doesn't want crude prices rocketing before an election.

14:09 But on the other hand, from the budget perspective,

14:12 all the government's done is actually cut the amount of money they're going to

14:15 give to these companies to go renewable.

14:19 They've halved that amount, but

14:20 that doesn't seem to make a difference because of their profits.

14:23 >> Yeah, one, that the amount maybe, actually you're right,

14:25 the profits and the valuations.

14:26 I think that's probably the story because remember today is one thing,

14:29 but we marked this a few days back, four or five days back as well,

14:33 when the oil and gas stocks had a massive uptick.

14:35 >> Yes, you did in Editor's Cup.

14:37 >> Which was on 24th Jan and then I think 28th or 29th Jan,

14:40 just before the budget, ONGC was up some 7, 8% on that day.

14:45 And the oil India was up about 3% as well.

14:48 So we're seeing this big gains coming in for

14:52 stocks like Gale and Citigas Distributors.

14:55 It's LNG, the lower LNG prices which are probably playing out for

15:01 stocks like BPHP IOC, just the stability of earnings and the valuations.

15:06 Somebody was talking about how if you look at the net debt numbers for

15:09 some of these companies, BPCL, at a net debt of 6,000 crores on that market cap

15:13 and that size, you could argue it's virtually debt free because 6,000

15:16 crores net debt is virtually nothing.

15:18 So when was the last time people saw the finances of these companies being so

15:22 well managed? And then, I mean, when you think of the

15:25 overall PSU pack having rallied, these are probably the few stocks which are

15:29 available at multiples which are maybe still single digits or now after the

15:33 rally, early double digits, which is actually not too bad at all.

15:36 So I think that is what probably seems to be working.

15:39 What are the factors that seems to be working, Kamanna?

15:41 >> Well, let's get Chandan Taparia's view on that.

15:43 He's head technical and derivatives research MOFSL.

15:47 Chandan, very good afternoon. But before I come to you on the oil and

15:50 gas space, let's talk about the markets and the levels that you see here,

15:54 22,000 breached and back. Do you think you're forming now a

16:00 stronger base at these higher levels? Bank Nifty and Nifty IT.

16:05 Nifty IT also, by the way, having a great day, about 2% up.

16:08 So your take on the levels first, Chandan.

16:10 >> Yeah. So before I talk about the levels of market, let me first start with

16:13 India Wix. In last two trading sessions, we have

16:16 seen decline in the volatility. However, intraday swings are there.

16:19 So decline in the volatility indicates that now buzzert and volatile queues

16:22 are away and market will move as per its level and setup.

16:26 So talking about Nifty, today we made a new lifetime high.

16:30 Earlier high was 22,124. Today we made high at 22,126.

16:34 And after that, some sort of profit book line, booking decline was seen

16:37 from higher levels. But the structure is in tech.

16:39 Declines are likely to be bought. Supports are shifting higher.

16:42 And we believe that till Nifty holds about 21,700 zone, any small

16:46 decline could be bought for an upside move to us.

16:49 22,200 kind of levels. Now if I talk about the Bank Nifty index,

16:53 Bank Nifty is slightly underperforming from last couple of days.

16:56 Today it headed to 46,900 zone, but then corrected by around 500, 600 points

17:01 from higher levels. So underperformance could continue.

17:04 Bank Nifty might trade in between 45,750 to 47,000 zone for next two,

17:09 three days. But yes, buy on decline will continue in the Nifty index

17:12 from current level as well.

17:15 Okay. Chandan, with this in mind, actually let's get your stock picks first

17:22 and then we'll come to you on oil and gas.

17:24 What are the ideas that you're giving us this afternoon?

17:27 So the idea is very clear. Be it CPSC, Central Public Sector Enterprises,

17:31 be it PSU, oil marketing companies, or you can select selective metal and mining.

17:38 So that is a clear winning streak we are witnessing.

17:42 So let me start with the first that is buy on NMDC.

17:45 We have seen strength coming in the counter.

17:48 It has seen some short covering and consolidation breakout is visible

17:53 after 19-20 long trading session.

17:55 So recommending to buy on NMDC with support of 230 and it has potential

17:59 to move to us 248 to 250 kind of level.

18:02 Apart from that, most of the oil marketing companies are likely to do well.

18:06 However, all these stocks have rallied by 18%.

18:10 So now I'll focus on Hindustan Petroleum, which is up by around 5-6%.

18:15 Trend is in tech. One can buy with support of 484 for an upside move to us 510.

18:20 So positive on NMDC, selective oil marketing companies,

18:24 and most of the CPSC or public sector stocks in this market scenario.

18:29 And before we get to talk to our PSU banks with Harsh,

18:32 Chandan, you gave us an oil marketing company.

18:35 I'm just trying to understand what are the targets that you foresee

18:38 for any of these oil upstream, be it ONGC, BP, HP, IOC.

18:42 What are the slightly longer term or medium term targets that you're working with here?

18:46 And can this current move continue tomorrow? Not tomorrow, sorry, on Monday, Tuesday as well.

18:51 Yeah, so let me first talk about IOC.

18:54 We have seen decent run up in last couple of months in the counter.

18:57 In last four months, it rallied from 90 to 164.

19:01 So you can understand 70-80% move was there.

19:04 If I look at the yearly chart in 2017,

19:08 I4, the stock was 154 and today we have surpassed it high.

19:12 So we clearly see seven to eight years long consolidation breakout

19:16 and it is entering into the new lifetime iteratory.

19:18 So further 20-25% momentum cannot be ruled out.

19:22 We believe that now 155 could act as a measure support for a rally to us.

19:26 185 to 190 levels in IOC. That comes to 20 to 30% descent upside from current zone.

19:32 Now let me talk about BPCL. BPCL again, major breakout is visible.

19:37 In 2017, it made high near 561.

19:41 Even in 2019, high was 560-550 zone.

19:45 So that 550-560 zone is now big and decisive move over the same will open further 20-30% moment.

19:51 So when you talk about BPCL, we are looking for an up move to our 610,

19:55 which is 10% from current level. So positive strength on both.

19:59 As we have seen major consolidation breakout on monthly, weekly and the yearly chart.

20:03 610 on BPCL is what Chandan sees. By the way, what is also perhaps moving for these companies

20:09 is that they have not had to take any price cut in petrol, diesel prices for over 20 months.

20:15 Possibly one could come before the elections, but they have now the coffers to deal with it.

20:21 Keeping the focus with public sector companies and now let me move to PSBs.

20:25 PSU bank rallies have continued for the second consecutive day.

20:30 SBI, Bank of Baroda, PNB are all in focus. Harsh joins us with what is driving the PSU banks.

20:36 Now, Harsh, the fiscal deficit squeeze or the intent to stay on the fiscal deficit path

20:43 and tighten the belt is music to the ears of the banking system and the PSBs.

20:48 But is there a bigger story here?

20:50 Well, yes, you know, you've of course, some of that that optimism is led by the good budget,

20:59 so-called with regard to where bonds are concerned.

21:02 But, you know, there are certain points that I want to cover certain basis.

21:06 Let's first look at, you know, the weightage to try to determine which are the top constituents.

21:11 You look at the likes of an SBI, Bob, PNB, Canbank, largely 70% in terms of weightage on the nifty PSU bank.

21:18 And the nifty PSU bank itself has rallied 16% year to date, 32% last three months,

21:24 six months, 48% returns in the last year, 76%, really unheard of in terms of their returns.

21:31 That's how the valuations essentially stack up. You have those valuations.

21:36 What's really driving the valuations, you know, ahead of what it has been over the last 10 years is

21:42 and I'll highlight four key reasons for that. One growth has come back in a solid fashion.

21:48 You are seeing them clock double digit plus growth over the last two to three quarters.

21:53 So that's one margins haven't diluted despite a difficult margin environment.

21:57 They've been able to hold on to their margins also because the loan to deposit ratio is quite decent.

22:04 And therefore, they haven't been able to haven't found the need to really fight for deposits,

22:08 even in a high growth environment. Third is your credit costs have been steadily coming off.

22:14 Your NP ratios have been improving quite dramatically.

22:18 And asset quality system wide is quite solid.

22:20 And therefore, you're not able to differentiate between a PSU as well as a private bank.

22:24 Lastly, your ROAs have corrected very, very significantly.

22:28 You're seeing all four of these banks clock ROAs nearly 1% or 1% plus.

22:33 Three of them definitely doing 1% plus. And that's that's the big positive coming through.

22:38 So four key reasons why they're doing so well.

22:41 And that change seems to be happening that re-rating clearly seems to be playing out even on valuations.

22:46 Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, we heard from, I think, the biggest PSP bank,

22:52 the biggest PSU banker as well, Dinesh Khara today. Thank you for that, Harsh.

22:56 Let's just play out a clip of that conversation that we had earlier on NDTV Profit with Dinesh Khara,

23:01 who was talking about what he expects from the RBI in the next MPC meet.

23:07 Very important question. Soon after the budget, you know, we have the RBI policy coming up,

23:13 rather MPC meeting coming up on the 8th. What do you think will be the tone of the RBI?

23:19 I think things are easing out, though liquidity has been tightened.

23:22 Do you think that RBI will be slightly more dovish than what it was in the last quarter?

23:30 I think perhaps I'm not expecting any kind of a change in stance or the direction as of now.

23:38 But maybe they will, MPC would have even much more data, which I'm not privy to.

23:45 So I'll not be efficient to really comment much on that.

23:48 But my overall sense is that perhaps it is likely to be the tone and also the direction should be what it was in the last policy.

23:57 No hike expected immediately by Dinesh Khara. Chandan Taparia with us.

24:03 Chandan, anything you like in the PSU bank pack?

24:07 Where do you think, you know, some kind of an upside exists?

24:11 And look at Punjab and Sindh Bank today. I'm not sure why that stock is firing,

24:15 but you have a complete crazy ride up. Chandan, anything which is on top of your list?

24:21 Yes, we like most of the PSU name, whether you talk about PSU banks or defence, railway, energy, power.

24:29 I believe the PSU team or CPSC team will continue in the Indian markets.

24:34 If you start with PSU banks, then I can talk about a stock like Kendra Bank or PNB.

24:41 So starting with Kendra Bank, we have seen a consolidation breakout.

24:45 It is making higher tops, higher bottoms, longs were added.

24:48 So by a decline to us 510 with support of 500, it has potential to move to us 530.

24:54 Tomorrow we have SBI result, so that we need to keep in mind.

24:58 Because as per the result outcome, some sort of volatility could trigger in the counter.

25:01 But as of now, positive on Kendra Bank.

25:04 Then you can focus on selective power name when you talk about PSU or PSU,

25:09 whether we talk about Power Grid or NTPC or other name.

25:14 So I think these are the stocks from power and energy you need to keep in mind apart from banks and PSU.

25:22 Absolutely, PSU Bank is definitely doing well.

25:24 Very short break, but don't switch that channel if you are watching this on TV.

25:29 Because of the big, big first and exclusive interview with Finance Minister Nirmala Setharaman

25:34 and Editor-in-Chief NDTV Network Sanjay Pugaliya coming up in just a few minutes from now.

25:39 Stay tuned.

Markets React Positively A Day After Budget | India Market Close | NDTV Profit

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