- #NiftyPharma leads the sectoral indices towards the end of trade
-#DrReddys gains on the back of results, what's next for the stock?
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'.
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-#DrReddys gains on the back of results, what's next for the stock?
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'.
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
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TVTranscript
00:00:00 very, very strong for some companies and weak for some of the others.
00:00:05 So, for example, I'll start off with the numbers on your screen.
00:00:08 Wellspun Living, you heard from the Nepali going kind Davos as well about how
00:00:11 strong they expect the story to look like.
00:00:14 It's been mixed for textile companies by and large.
00:00:16 But Wellspun Living, it's not just a textile company, by the way,
00:00:20 now that they are into home solutions, but there is a significant uptick that
00:00:25 they've seen on revenues as well as margins.
00:00:28 And I think as a result of that, Wellspun Living, not Wellspun Entertainment,
00:00:32 but Wellspun Living, which is 169 bucks is up about 10 percent, if I'm not wrong.
00:00:36 So I think that's the key point.
00:00:37 Eleven and a half percent now is Wellspun.
00:00:39 Let's change this stock, not Wellspun End,
00:00:41 but Wellspun Living is the one I'm talking about.
00:00:43 Very strong numbers and the numbers are flashing on your screen.
00:00:46 74 percent uptick in EBITDA as well.
00:00:49 Margins up 368 basis points, strong showing and the stock is duly reacting.
00:00:54 So that is first.
00:00:54 Then we have the pharma stocks which are up and about.
00:00:57 So Sun Pharma up about three and a half to four percent.
00:01:00 I think I've seen
00:01:02 maybe Dr. Reddy's do reasonably OK as well.
00:01:05 Pyramid Pharma, which came out of the very good set of numbers,
00:01:08 was also up and about. DRL is up about four percent.
00:01:11 So strong show. Pyramid Pharma up about three and a half percent.
00:01:13 So large, mid, small, that entire clutch of names.
00:01:16 They have two done well in the session today.
00:01:19 And what is sulking is stocks like L&T.
00:01:21 So at the top of my head, I can think of Larsen and Toubro as being
00:01:25 a stock that has been under pressure in the session today,
00:01:28 has come off from the lows of the day, which is a good thing because frankly,
00:01:33 I mean, aside of a small margin miss, there weren't too many other negatives.
00:01:37 And therefore, as has happened, each of the last seven quarters,
00:01:42 Larsen and Toubro has gained between two results.
00:01:46 Could this time be different?
00:01:47 Maybe, maybe not, but for now seems to be looking OK.
00:01:50 PB Fintech has given up some of the gains, but still up about nine percent.
00:01:54 So that is doing OK. Volta's about seven and a half percent.
00:01:56 So that is doing OK.
00:01:57 There is strength in Balaji Amin's post results.
00:02:00 So that is doing OK. KPRT Tech about five and a half percent.
00:02:03 So that is doing OK as well.
00:02:05 So these are a few stocks which to my mind look OK on the gaining side.
00:02:09 On the losing side, on the index, of course,
00:02:12 aside of Larsen and Toubro, there is Titan,
00:02:14 which has come off a little bit in the session.
00:02:15 So that is to be watched out for.
00:02:17 But still not too many losses.
00:02:20 And on the broader end of the spectrum,
00:02:23 Kalyan Jewellers, Metro Brand, Shyam Metals and Sterling Wilson Solar are three
00:02:28 or four names that stand out in trade.
00:02:32 It's a show which is going to be packed with management.
00:02:34 So we'll be talking to PVR in a moment from now.
00:02:36 We'll also be talking to and we will also hear out the management of Ambuja
00:02:42 in just moments from now as well.
00:02:44 And later on in the show, we'll get in Anshu Malik of Dabur to talk
00:02:48 about what's happening at that end of the spectrum to post Dabur numbers.
00:02:51 So those are three names that you keenly need to watch out for.
00:02:54 Do we have I think we have a statement
00:02:57 from Ambuja that we should try and play out and just give you a sense of what's
00:03:00 happening there. So that is one thing to keep in mind.
00:03:04 And then
00:03:06 the questions to one PVR and secondly to Dabur would be what's happening or what
00:03:13 is the sense around what customers are saying?
00:03:15 So I think that is there are some of the
00:03:18 key points that we will keep in mind in the show today.
00:03:22 Before we move further, the mid cap stock of the day, to my mind,
00:03:26 is KPIT Tech simply because tech is not having a good rally per se.
00:03:30 But KPIT Tech recorded net profit of ten
00:03:32 point eight five percent growth for the third quarter.
00:03:36 Sachin Tikhekar, president and John MD of KPIT spoke to me earlier today about
00:03:40 the outlook for the next quarter and the quarters ahead.
00:03:42 Listen in.
00:03:43 I have to say this has been another
00:03:47 quarter that has been absolutely in line with our overall expectations
00:03:52 in terms of things that are in our control.
00:03:56 I think things went as per the plan,
00:03:58 whether it's on the engagement with the clients and the revenue side, as well as
00:04:04 the profits, I think they're a little bit more than what we thought.
00:04:09 But in generally directionally in line,
00:04:12 of course, we have no control over the
00:04:15 over the foreign exchange and we just have to play it by the ear and see how it goes.
00:04:21 Sometimes it works in favor.
00:04:23 Sometimes it doesn't.
00:04:24 So
00:04:25 what has happened?
00:04:27 One change that has happened is our mix of business
00:04:31 over the last couple of years, the growth in Europe has been extraordinary.
00:04:35 And now there is growth in Japan.
00:04:37 So Euro and yen are playing a broader role in terms of our
00:04:44 revenue mix.
00:04:46 So
00:04:47 that's the only thing that I can say.
00:04:50 But overall,
00:04:52 we are happy that we have had consistent growth over the last 14 quarters.
00:04:57 And
00:04:59 the plan is to try and stay on top of it.
00:05:04 OK, some more numbers on your screen,
00:05:06 Heidelberg cement and look at those numbers again.
00:05:09 Margins for Heidelberg up 392 basis points at 10.8 percent versus 6.9 percent.
00:05:15 So that number is looking OK.
00:05:18 OK, we're showing this earnings impact
00:05:20 play, but I was just trying to read out the numbers.
00:05:22 And I think the numbers just look rock solid.
00:05:24 Really, automotive Excel is the other one
00:05:26 which has actually come off because the net profit numbers are slightly lower.
00:05:30 But Heidelberg, I thought, came out a good set of numbers,
00:05:33 both on the margins as well as on the bottom line front.
00:05:35 Maybe the top line is a bit of a miss.
00:05:37 But cement is looking a bit iffy today, I must say.
00:05:40 Actually, speaking of cement numbers,
00:05:42 Ambuja too has had a iffy afternoon, if you will, down about 2 percent.
00:05:48 And after ACC's heroics,
00:05:51 Ambuja, maybe the street was anticipating a lot more.
00:05:54 Ajay Kapoor is talking about the Q3 earnings of Ambuja
00:05:58 and what went by.
00:06:00 Just let's listen in to what he has to say.
00:06:04 Results and performance of Ambuja Cements for Q3 FY24.
00:06:08 Ambuja has achieved stellar financial
00:06:10 results marked by revenue growth and operational efficiency.
00:06:15 Our net profit has witnessed a remarkable
00:06:17 surge reflecting the company's resilience and strategic initiatives
00:06:21 in a dynamic market environment.
00:06:24 The year on year consolidated performance
00:06:27 of the quarter reflects a revenue increase by 2.8 percent of Rs.
00:06:32 8,129 crores.
00:06:35 The operating costs went down by 9.8 percent at Rs.
00:06:38 4526 per tonne, a reduction of Rs. 491 per tonne.
00:06:43 This is mainly on account of 21 percent
00:06:46 decrease in energy costs driven by efficient fuel management.
00:06:50 We achieved a 25 percent reduction in kill fuel cost,
00:06:54 now at Rs. 1.84 per 1000 kcal down from previous 2.45.
00:07:00 With these improvements in revenue and cost,
00:07:03 our EBITDA is Rs.
00:07:05 1732 crores, a jump of 70 percent YY.
00:07:10 The EBITDA per tonne has increased by 65 percent to Rs.
00:07:14 1225
00:07:17 and margin expanded by 8.4 percent at points to Rs. 21.3.
00:07:24 We achieved 125 percent growth in profit
00:07:26 after tax at Rs. 1090 crores up from Rs. 488 crores, a jump of Rs. 602 crores.
00:07:34 Our consolidated cash and cash equivalent at the end of 31st December '23 remains
00:07:41 at Rs. 8,591 crores.
00:07:44 This is post acquisition of Sanghi Industries.
00:07:48 Results on standalone basis reflect a net
00:07:50 revenue rise of 7.5 percent at Rs.
00:07:54 4440 crores in line with a 5.8 percent volume increment.
00:08:01 The EBITDA grew by 33 percent at Rs.
00:08:03 851 crores with margins expanding by 3.7 percentage to 19.3 from 15.5.
00:08:11 EBITDA per tonne grew by 26 percent to Rs.
00:08:14 1046, a strong path growth of 39 percent at Rs. 514 crores.
00:08:21 Coming to strategic investments and
00:08:23 expansions, Adani's total cement capacity reached 77.4 million,
00:08:28 fuelled by the commissioning of the new Amita grinding unit,
00:08:32 recent acquisition like Sanghi Industries and Asian Concretes and Cement Private
00:08:37 Limited. We are capitalizing on our successful acquisition of Sanghi
00:08:42 Industries, which is on a path of significant improvement in EBITDA
00:08:46 performance post acquisition.
00:08:49 With the integration of 400 plus channel
00:08:51 partners after the acquisition, our emphasis is on strengthening and
00:08:56 reinforcing our iconic ACC and Ambuja brands through the positioning of
00:09:01 Har Ghar Hoga Aur Bhi Mazboot.
00:09:04 With Asian Concrete,
00:09:06 we will be able to strategically cater to a vast customer base across Himachal
00:09:11 Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab, improving our profitability and market share.
00:09:17 We are well on our path to ongoing growth in our brownfield operations,
00:09:21 adding 8 million tonnes of clinker capacity at Bhattapara in Chhattisgarh
00:09:25 and Maratha in Maharashtra. With these capacities coming into service,
00:09:30 we will also enhance our ESG standards on the lines of 42 megawatts of waste heat,
00:09:36 30% AFR utilization aided by green power for these new plants.
00:09:42 This will allow 14 million tonnes of blended green cement new capacity by
00:09:46 quarter 2 FY26. We have further approved 12 million tonnes
00:09:51 cement grinding units at five locations.
00:09:54 The 32 million tonne additional cement capacity under implementation at various
00:09:59 stages will take our total capacity to 110 million tonnes in the near future.
00:10:05 Reaffirming our commitment to sustainable
00:10:07 practices with an investment of rupees 6000 crores in one gigawatt solar and wind
00:10:13 powered projects, we are aiming for a substantial increase in green power
00:10:17 capacity, promising compelling economic advantages to our plant,
00:10:21 larger capacity of 140 million tonnes.
00:10:24 We are also continuously increasing the
00:10:27 share of alternate fuels and waste heat recovery systems.
00:10:31 We will be reaching 186 megawatt waste heat capacity by FY25.
00:10:36 In addition to our branding efforts,
00:10:38 we have also robust and notable involvement with the technical and end user groups.
00:10:43 Through our technical services, we are supporting ethical and environmentally
00:10:48 friendly building practices, making a significant positive influence on society
00:10:53 at large. While we have set out to achieve our long
00:10:57 term objectives, we are committed to sustainable growth with focus on water
00:11:01 governance, sustainable livelihoods, women empowerment, uplifting rural
00:11:06 infrastructure and championing social inclusiveness.
00:11:10 Cement demand in India will continue to grow at seven to eight percent,
00:11:13 primarily fueled by investments in infrastructure and large scale residential
00:11:18 housing projects. This growth aligns strategically with the
00:11:23 broader economic development goals of the country as we move from US dollar
00:11:27 three point five trillion to US dollar seven point three trillion economy by 2030.
00:11:33 Looking ahead, we are optimistic about the future and are committed to sustaining
00:11:38 this momentum, Ambuja Cements will continue to leverage its strength,
00:11:42 explore new opportunities and uphold the highest standards of corporate governance.
00:11:51 Right, that's that's Ambuja Cements and a statement from Ajay Kapoor about how
00:11:57 the quarter went by now, just before we take that break, Jay Bala has joined us.
00:12:02 He's founder and chief market technician at CashTheChaos.com
00:12:05 and he catches the chaos as well as he caught very well with polycap sometime
00:12:11 back, he called it on the market sometime back.
00:12:13 Jay, I'm trying to figure out what is your
00:12:15 view on the markets a day ahead of the budget.
00:12:18 Are charts telling you something?
00:12:21 The charts are telling that, you know,
00:12:26 the banks are the weakest here in Neeraj and thanks for the introduction.
00:12:29 And, you know,
00:12:31 the banks remain the weakest pocket for the markets and the weakest link.
00:12:35 So the best thing to do right now is obviously avoid banks and be very careful
00:12:42 about what you choose out there. The Nifty is a bit ambivalent,
00:12:46 but I think, you know, if the markets were to drop below 21650 on an intraday basis,
00:12:51 the momentum will pick up on the downside.
00:12:53 But on a slightly higher time frame, it can be argued it's bullish and bearish.
00:12:58 My opinion is that it's slightly,
00:13:00 the bearish side has a slight edge over the bullish side.
00:13:03 So as long as the markets remain below 21800,
00:13:09 it's probably a sell on rise on the market.
00:13:11 OK, and, you know, maybe we'll try and get Jay Bala sometime next week as well.
00:13:16 I suppose budget is over because FOMC plus budget could be a potent combination
00:13:20 to determine the near term course as well of the market.
00:13:22 Jay, a bunch of managements lined up.
00:13:24 So for the next 15, 20 minutes,
00:13:25 we might not be able to do justice to your intelligence,
00:13:28 but we will do a full conversation in a few minutes from now.
00:13:32 We need to slip into a quick break currently.
00:13:33 When we come back, we talk to PVR, we talk to Dabur,
00:13:36 we continue our conversation with Jay Bala and we also get Mehrabun Irani in the mix.
00:13:40 Stay tuned.
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00:16:46 - Welcome back, you're watching India Market Close
00:16:55 and markets looking in fine fettle
00:16:57 just hours before the interim budget.
00:17:00 Meanwhile, PVR numbers are out for the third quarter,
00:17:03 consolidated revenue year on year is up 64%
00:17:08 at 1545 crores versus 940 crores,
00:17:11 so healthy bump up there.
00:17:13 EBITDA numbers are looking in fine fettle up 64% nearly
00:17:17 at 472 crores, margins at 30.55% versus 30.67%,
00:17:22 so a bit of margin compression there,
00:17:27 we'll talk about that with the management in just a second
00:17:30 and net profits are up about 20%.
00:17:34 The hit or the pain point seems to be in movie production
00:17:37 and distribution revenues,
00:17:38 which have declined 48% year on year.
00:17:41 Let me speak now with Sanjeev Kumar Bijli,
00:17:43 Executive Director and Gaurav Sharma,
00:17:46 Senior Vice President, Corporate and Finance
00:17:48 and Head IR at PVR INOX.
00:17:50 Welcome gentlemen, thank you so much for speaking with us
00:17:53 this afternoon at NDTV Profit.
00:17:55 Let's go through the numbers first up.
00:17:58 Mr. Bijli, may I start with you?
00:18:00 EBITDA is looking healthy, what's contributed to it
00:18:03 and why the pressure on margins?
00:18:04 - You're right, obviously the EBITDA is looking good,
00:18:11 strong because of our higher ATP,
00:18:13 we had an ATP of about 271 rupees this quarter,
00:18:18 up by 13% and even the F&B sales or the SPH as we say,
00:18:22 has been up by 11% at 132 rupees per person.
00:18:27 So these two and the advertising income also has kicked in
00:18:31 and that has also done well with about 140 crores
00:18:34 we have clocked in in this quarter,
00:18:37 but the overall admissions have been slightly muted
00:18:41 and I think that is the reason why the margins
00:18:43 are looking a little lower than we had hoped for.
00:18:47 So I think that is the whole picture for Q3.
00:18:51 - Just to understand that correctly,
00:18:54 if you say overall admissions,
00:18:55 are we saying that footfalls have come down a bit?
00:18:58 Is that the concern?
00:19:00 - The footfalls are slightly lower than Q3 of last year,
00:19:06 primarily because the films didn't perform
00:19:10 as well as we thought they would in October and November.
00:19:13 On paper, of course, these films looked like blockbusters
00:19:16 or great films, but they didn't perform as well.
00:19:19 But December was a great month,
00:19:21 we had four excellent big films,
00:19:24 Animals, Salar, Tanki and Sam Bahadur,
00:19:27 which contributed to high footfalls.
00:19:30 - And how far are we from pre-pandemic occupancy levels,
00:19:34 Mr. Bijli?
00:19:37 - I would say that I think this coming financial year,
00:19:41 again, once again, the lineup is looking very strong.
00:19:45 It's not just the movie lineup, which is looking very strong,
00:19:47 which is being contributed by all languages firing up,
00:19:51 be it English, Indian, regional.
00:19:53 I think one also has to be cognizant
00:19:55 because of the lockdown and COVID,
00:19:57 the movie production cycle also got disrupted
00:20:00 and therefore a lot of films got delayed
00:20:04 in production and releasing,
00:20:07 which I think this entire pipeline will settle
00:20:10 in the coming financial year.
00:20:12 Plus we opened about 92 screens so far
00:20:15 in the first nine months and opening another 70 screens
00:20:20 in the last quarter.
00:20:21 And these are all very strong, high-performing cinemas,
00:20:26 concentrated and focused in markets
00:20:28 where there's a high propensity to spend and watch movies
00:20:31 like South India, Pune, Mumbai,
00:20:35 where people have a high propensity to spend.
00:20:37 And these will obviously have a full year's operation
00:20:40 and the numbers from these cinemas,
00:20:42 which will open up in this year,
00:20:44 will contribute significantly to the admissions.
00:20:47 - Mr. Gaurav Sharma, can you give us a sense
00:20:51 of what is your contribution of F&B now to your revenues?
00:20:56 And is it inching up or are ticket sales
00:21:00 still pulling most of the weight,
00:21:02 considering they're up by about 11% year on year?
00:21:05 - Yeah, F&B sales does contribute a significant portion
00:21:10 of our revenues.
00:21:11 In fact, in the first nine months of this financial year,
00:21:14 F&B has contributed roughly about 30% of our total sales.
00:21:19 And this has been inching up year on year,
00:21:21 as Mr. Kumar mentioned, the spending per head on F&B
00:21:25 by consumers has gone up considerably.
00:21:28 Year on year, we have seen almost a 10% increase in SPH.
00:21:32 And when you compare it with pre-pandemic,
00:21:34 you know, the increase in F&B spending has been substantial.
00:21:37 - Okay, give us a sense about what's happening
00:21:41 on the OTT side of things.
00:21:43 Is there a hesitation about buying digital rights of movies?
00:21:47 This question again for Mr. Sharma,
00:21:48 and how does that play out and impact you?
00:21:50 - Well, from the OTT standpoint,
00:21:56 I think what we understand is that
00:21:58 OTTs are definitely being selective in terms of,
00:22:01 you know, the content that they're buying.
00:22:04 Theatrical is continuing to be a preferred medium
00:22:07 for release of films.
00:22:09 And you know, only when films do well theatrically,
00:22:13 I think streaming platforms at that point in time
00:22:17 decide whether to buy and at what price to buy.
00:22:19 So I think from that perspective,
00:22:21 theaters continue to be the preferred option
00:22:24 for release of content by producers,
00:22:26 and also consuming content by consumers
00:22:28 is what we are seeing.
00:22:30 - Gaurav, sorry, did I hear you say that
00:22:32 spending per head has gone up 10%
00:22:34 because the data seem to suggest it stayed flat,
00:22:36 133 or thereabouts, by a while?
00:22:38 - No, last year, compared to last year, it has gone up.
00:22:42 It was about 122 in quarter three of last year.
00:22:47 It is 131 in quarter three of this year.
00:22:50 - Okay, so, okay, so, but quarter on quarter,
00:22:53 it may have stayed flat.
00:22:54 You expect this trend to inch up a little bit
00:22:56 as the calendar goes by, by any chance?
00:22:58 Is there something like that
00:23:00 that can be estimated?
00:23:01 - Yeah, definitely.
00:23:05 I think as movies continue to perform well at the cinemas,
00:23:10 people will start coming back.
00:23:12 We have a very strong pipeline when they visit cinemas.
00:23:15 What we are seeing is that they are not hesitating
00:23:18 to spend on F&B.
00:23:20 So our belief is that this momentum of F&B spending,
00:23:24 the growth that we have seen this year
00:23:27 will continue going forward as well.
00:23:30 - All right, just one last forward-looking point,
00:23:32 Mr. Bijli, like you mentioned,
00:23:33 in this quarter, maybe December, had four blockbusters,
00:23:36 but overall, the movies didn't perform as was expected
00:23:41 or didn't draw audiences as expected.
00:23:43 What is the lineup looking like for Q4 and going ahead?
00:23:47 What do you expect to close the year at?
00:23:49 - The content lineup for the next two months,
00:23:52 I mean, of course, "Jan" is almost over,
00:23:54 and "Fighter" was a big film that came out
00:23:56 on the 26th of January that is still doing brisk numbers.
00:24:00 In addition to that, we have a few very strong Hindi films
00:24:04 releasing in the month of February itself,
00:24:07 which is, one is with Shahid Kapoor.
00:24:10 There is a film with Ajay Devgn.
00:24:13 There is a couple of regional strong films
00:24:15 and even Hollywood films.
00:24:16 So it's looking very strong, the outlook of films.
00:24:21 Plus, as I said, we're opening some of our megaplexes
00:24:25 in this quarter as well, a 14-screen complex in Bangalore
00:24:29 and 14-screen complex in Pune
00:24:31 and a nine-screen complex in Ahmedabad.
00:24:33 And all these large format, large megaplexes
00:24:38 contribute substantially to the footfalls when we open
00:24:43 because there are destination malls
00:24:45 and fueled by an exciting lineup of films,
00:24:47 the admissions are looking pretty healthy
00:24:51 for this quarter as well.
00:24:53 - All right, so we'll wait and see
00:24:55 how many people go to the movies.
00:24:58 Clearly, people are still going to the movies
00:25:00 despite this OTT scare.
00:25:03 So alive and kicking there.
00:25:04 Thank you so much, Sanjeev Bijli and Gaurav Sharma
00:25:06 for speaking to us. - Thank you.
00:25:08 - The team at BVR talking about their Q3 numbers.
00:25:12 All right, Mehraboon Irani in the house,
00:25:14 in our studios today.
00:25:15 Mehraboon, great to have you here.
00:25:17 Before the budget, before the FOMC,
00:25:20 what's going to matter more tomorrow?
00:25:21 Who's going to matter?
00:25:22 Mr. Powell or Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman?
00:25:25 - Well, I would say that it's a vote on account ultimately.
00:25:28 And I think the expectations are much, much, much more
00:25:30 than what possibly will be spelt out tomorrow.
00:25:33 It's an interim budget.
00:25:33 So we are going to have a proper budget
00:25:35 in the month of June.
00:25:36 - But in 2019, the interim budget was the proper budget.
00:25:39 - Yeah, and there were some concessions given
00:25:40 to the Saturday class or the middle class.
00:25:42 I think it's standard deduction,
00:25:43 which Mr. Piyush Goyal announced.
00:25:44 - PM Kisan Lidhi's scheme was announced in 2019.
00:25:48 - Is that going to have an impact on the market?
00:25:50 - Correct.
00:25:51 So I think there will be some social schemes announced.
00:25:53 I am quite sure that there will be some thrust
00:25:55 being given to some jalbikas, that is a water schemes.
00:25:59 There will be possibly some layout being spelled
00:26:03 for things like infrastructure, railways.
00:26:05 Will it be the same amount?
00:26:06 All those things beyond the point will not matter.
00:26:09 That's my view.
00:26:10 Coming back to your question, as far as Powell goes,
00:26:13 I think somewhere the consensus is coming slowly
00:26:16 that we are not going to have a rate cut happening
00:26:19 till June, July, August.
00:26:21 And I think in my last visit over here,
00:26:25 I think on the very first day
00:26:26 when you launched this channel,
00:26:28 I had mentioned and I have not changed my view
00:26:31 that somewhere we will have an election verdict
00:26:34 with the markets will like.
00:26:36 They will have a Powell reducing rate
00:26:38 somewhere in June, July.
00:26:39 And hopefully, which is not in my hands, not in your hands,
00:26:43 that the monsoon prediction will be better
00:26:45 than what we had last year.
00:26:46 A combination of these three factors, I promise you,
00:26:49 this is my gut feeling and I have a right to go wrong.
00:26:52 We will have an explosive high as far as the markets goes
00:26:56 and people will just go on refusing to believe it.
00:27:00 Now, after that, what?
00:27:01 Let's not discuss it right now.
00:27:04 - Fair point, because then the situation
00:27:06 might change as well.
00:27:07 So fair point, completely.
00:27:08 Okay, we'll talk to Mehbub Nurani
00:27:10 about some of the individual movers as well.
00:27:13 But, you know, Jai Bala has been with us
00:27:15 and Jai, like I said, a few earnings,
00:27:17 so I have to bear with that.
00:27:18 You've given us a sense of,
00:27:20 you believe that in the near term,
00:27:23 maybe just maybe the downsides might have
00:27:25 a slightly more weightage than the upside.
00:27:27 Within that landscape, Jai,
00:27:29 and banks are weak is what you said,
00:27:30 but within this landscape,
00:27:32 are there individual themes or stocks
00:27:35 that stand out for you?
00:27:36 - Yeah, I think as a theme,
00:27:40 real estate is still probably not talked out,
00:27:43 but that could be due to the weightage of DLF
00:27:46 and DLF, you know,
00:27:48 that the rest of the pack like Oberoi
00:27:52 and, you know, others,
00:27:55 like Goedzel Properties,
00:27:56 they could be lagging DLF.
00:28:01 Even autos as a theme,
00:28:02 they might still be doing okay.
00:28:04 But overall, an extreme amount of caution is required
00:28:07 because, you know, even if there's going to be new high,
00:28:10 which is a very low probability,
00:28:12 new high, and you say new high,
00:28:13 new all time high,
00:28:14 it's a very low probability.
00:28:15 And even if we try to make,
00:28:17 the market's not going to sustain.
00:28:18 That's the theme I'm working with.
00:28:20 And, you know, when it comes to US tenuries,
00:28:24 you know, I had said in December,
00:28:25 I'm not sure if it's for your channel.
00:28:27 And I said, there's a January surprise due for the rates
00:28:31 and Fed is likely to backpedal when it comes to rate cuts.
00:28:33 Already, you know, the future Fed fund rates futures
00:28:37 have dropped back.
00:28:37 And as Mehragoon pointed out,
00:28:39 a lot of factors are pointing to a delayed rate cut,
00:28:43 if not no rate cuts.
00:28:44 You know, that's what is going to happen.
00:28:45 We're going to have a big surprise
00:28:47 when it comes to, you know, US tenuries.
00:28:50 We're going to have higher rates,
00:28:52 probably, you know, much above the 500 basis points
00:28:56 we saw last year.
00:28:56 - Okay.
00:28:59 Well, surprise, surprise, HDFC Bank on a number of days now
00:29:02 is supporting the markets in the green,
00:29:04 which is a good thing.
00:29:05 Let's take a slip into a quick break,
00:29:07 come back and continue our conversation with our guests.
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00:31:12 - Our reception downstairs.
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00:31:42 - All right, welcome back.
00:31:53 We're just about 25 odd minutes away from close on a day
00:31:58 that is looking very, very excited about the vote
00:32:01 on account what's happening on an expiry day.
00:32:05 Agam is standing by with all the details.
00:32:06 Agam, fine fettle today on the bank.
00:32:09 - Yeah, yes, absolutely.
00:32:11 So what's really happened through the course of the day
00:32:13 is some amount of strength returning to the markets,
00:32:16 but there's still caution.
00:32:17 Of course, we don't necessarily mean that there is going
00:32:20 to be a lot of traction,
00:32:23 but we're seeing a little bit of an increase
00:32:25 in open interest towards longs at the moment,
00:32:28 at least as far as the Nifty is concerned,
00:32:29 considering the underlying has advanced by around 0.9%.
00:32:32 The Bank Nifty, on the other hand,
00:32:34 showing a lot more strength, in fact, up 1.4%,
00:32:38 largely on account of HDFC Bank, Axis Bank,
00:32:41 and ICICI Bank.
00:32:42 And because of that,
00:32:43 because we've seen so much volatility in the Bank Nifty,
00:32:46 there's also more short covering coming through,
00:32:49 indicated by a decline in open interest.
00:32:51 As far as the Nifty options market goes
00:32:54 in today's day of trade,
00:32:55 well, traders did take that as an opportunity
00:32:58 to perhaps go and, well, create positions
00:33:01 around the 21,600 mark, as you can see on your screen there.
00:33:04 Or in terms of your overall distribution,
00:33:06 let's pull that plate up as well.
00:33:08 And that's where you are still seeing
00:33:10 a lot more resistance building around 21,700, 21,800,
00:33:14 even though we are teasing those levels at the moment.
00:33:17 Of course, as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned,
00:33:20 and it is the weekly options expiry,
00:33:22 do remember in the morning,
00:33:24 I had pointed out that 45,500 would be the pivot.
00:33:28 Not only has the Bank Nifty moved above that mark,
00:33:32 but it's also now likely to close
00:33:34 somewhere around the 46,000 mark right here.
00:33:38 In terms of stocks, again,
00:33:39 we are keeping an eye on Long's building up
00:33:42 in Voltas and Dr. Reddy's.
00:33:44 Both of them, of course, for, you know,
00:33:47 Voltas on account of earnings,
00:33:48 Dr. Reddy's on account of that, well, you know,
00:33:52 one of the drugs and positive development there.
00:33:55 And on the other hand,
00:33:56 shorts building up in L&T and Siemens.
00:33:58 And of course, in terms of those stocks,
00:34:00 we saw unwinding in trade.
00:34:02 We're looking at about a short covering for Exide,
00:34:04 PNB, Atul, AU Small Finance, as well as Federal Bank.
00:34:07 We'll be watching out for a whole host of these counters,
00:34:10 but as far as the benchmarks are concerned,
00:34:13 for now, they're trending positively
00:34:15 ahead of the union budget.
00:34:18 - All right, so positive cues there
00:34:21 on the union budget coming in.
00:34:22 Now let's look at what's working today.
00:34:24 And the story of the day is no doubt healthcare.
00:34:28 The Nifty Healthcare Index up about 3%.
00:34:31 Some cracker numbers have come out,
00:34:34 a DRL, let's look at Sun Pharma,
00:34:37 very exciting stuff there.
00:34:39 Even a Piramal Pharma has been doing very, very well.
00:34:43 Mehraboon and Jai with us on the show.
00:34:46 And let me quickly first go across to Jai
00:34:48 and get his take on some of these counters
00:34:50 that we've been talking about.
00:34:52 Jai, is this a defensive play we're seeing?
00:34:55 Is there anything that you think is worth acquiring
00:34:58 at these levels in the healthcare pharma space?
00:35:01 - See, the healthcare sector has been my favorite
00:35:05 since October of this year,
00:35:07 and it's been outperforming even my expectations.
00:35:10 And my expectation was about,
00:35:12 from 14,500, I expected the index to touch about
00:35:15 17,100 to 17,500.
00:35:19 It's right now at 17,900.
00:35:21 So, I'm talking about Nifty Pharma Index.
00:35:23 So, it does look like it's still not done,
00:35:28 but it's looking like it's close to an exhaustion.
00:35:30 But within the pharma space,
00:35:32 I like Torrent, Lupin,
00:35:36 and Arbindo, and Glenmark,
00:35:40 and rather than, you know, Cipla and Dr. Reddy.
00:35:43 But it could be that Reddy and Cipla
00:35:46 may be at the nascent stage of their move.
00:35:49 But looking at the overall index,
00:35:51 it does look like, you know,
00:35:52 we are very close to an important top for pharma index.
00:35:56 Probably should start unloading
00:35:58 the profits that we have made so far,
00:36:00 because the objective I see,
00:36:01 so the next level is about 18,400.
00:36:04 So, not too much of upside from here,
00:36:06 but it's still bullish and the top performing sector.
00:36:10 - But the individual names are doing very well.
00:36:12 Select few of them.
00:36:13 Merbun, anything out there in the pharma part,
00:36:17 because sporadically the numbers this earning season
00:36:19 have not looked bad.
00:36:20 - After six years of being negative on this sector
00:36:23 and being negative on the frontline stock
00:36:25 in the sector called Sun Pharma,
00:36:26 I've turned positive as far as Sun Pharma goes.
00:36:28 - Sun Pharma, okay.
00:36:30 - The balance sheet is good.
00:36:31 Domestic business, I think,
00:36:32 there is no parallel if you ask me.
00:36:34 They are increasing the sales force.
00:36:36 They have got decent cash in the books
00:36:38 and with Tarot now coming under its fold,
00:36:40 there will be further cash in which I'm quite sure
00:36:42 they will make some more acquisitions.
00:36:43 I have not seen these numbers
00:36:45 which have been announced right now closely,
00:36:47 but I personally believe that Sun Pharma
00:36:49 among frontline stock should be the best bet going ahead.
00:36:52 As far as individual names go,
00:36:53 I like names like a JB Chemicals,
00:36:55 I like name like an FDC,
00:36:57 I like name like a Kaplan Point Labs,
00:36:59 but this is a space which I was negative.
00:37:01 I know from industry sources whom I know as friends
00:37:05 that possibly the worst for the sector is over.
00:37:08 But does it mean that you go out and buy?
00:37:10 You are buying it only because the market
00:37:12 and knowing that things are not very good for the sector
00:37:14 has brought down prices to levels
00:37:16 from where the downside may not be much.
00:37:19 So you go and buy it as an opportunist,
00:37:20 you make some money,
00:37:22 but are there any positive triggers?
00:37:23 Honestly, not too many.
00:37:25 The worst could be over,
00:37:27 but not many positive triggers right now.
00:37:28 So from the price angle,
00:37:29 you are going to make some money in the short run,
00:37:31 which is what is happening over the last two months.
00:37:33 But as far as individual stocks go,
00:37:34 I think you need to make your study.
00:37:36 My personal bet, which I mentioned,
00:37:37 with clear disclosure, I'm holding those four stocks.
00:37:40 Yeah, what about DRL, Mehrabool?
00:37:43 Any thoughts on DRL?
00:37:44 It's been buzzing today.
00:37:45 Numbers have beaten expectations,
00:37:47 on the face of it at least.
00:37:49 And has anything fundamentally changed for the sector
00:37:52 or they're just playing catch up?
00:37:53 I think, as I mentioned earlier,
00:37:55 I think the worst for the sector
00:37:57 as far as the developed markets goes.
00:37:59 Companies which are in the explosion of developed markets,
00:38:01 especially an economy like US.
00:38:04 I think the worst possibly for them is behind them.
00:38:08 Are things going to improve overnight?
00:38:10 Answer is clear, no.
00:38:12 Clear no.
00:38:12 But then the point is the market
00:38:14 anticipating this problem
00:38:15 had discounted the prices to levels
00:38:17 from where the downside looks capped.
00:38:19 As far as DRL goes, the numbers look interesting.
00:38:21 The numbers look good.
00:38:23 But at the price at which it is,
00:38:24 I honestly would stick my neck out and say,
00:38:27 I don't see more than 5% from here on the upside.
00:38:30 Okay, well, that's as far as pharma goes.
00:38:34 By the way, some more numbers trickling in.
00:38:36 We've already spoken about Wellspun Living,
00:38:39 which had a fabulous set of numbers
00:38:41 and that stock was doing well.
00:38:42 I think Jubilant Foodworks numbers
00:38:44 are not looking all that great.
00:38:45 And a weak set of numbers came in
00:38:47 for Primal Enterprises as well.
00:38:50 That stock, well, saw profit converted to loss
00:38:54 or rather corresponding loss in this quarter.
00:38:57 NPS may have improved marginally.
00:38:59 Vishwanath Nair, my colleague, caught up with Jayaram Sridharan,
00:39:01 Managing Director of Primal Finance.
00:39:03 Listen in.
00:39:04 - On December 19th, RBI had come out with a circular
00:39:09 that said that any financial institution
00:39:12 that has exposure to alternative investment funds,
00:39:16 if you also happen to have exposure
00:39:18 to one of the underlying clients of the AIF,
00:39:21 then you should go ahead and make provisions.
00:39:24 We had made a stock exchange disexposure in AIFs.
00:39:29 That's what we have dealt with
00:39:31 during the course of the quarter.
00:39:33 We had 3,500 crores of total exposure into AIFs.
00:39:38 Of that, about 1,700 crores was linked
00:39:42 to some sort of assets or accounts where we had exposure.
00:39:47 We had a lot of debate internally,
00:39:48 but then we decided eventually
00:39:50 to write down the entire 3,500 crores
00:39:53 just to be very safe and fully compliant.
00:39:57 So we've gone ahead and taken a full 3,500 crore
00:39:59 write down on our AIF portfolio.
00:40:02 And that on a post-tax basis
00:40:05 has resulted in about 2,700 crores of HED.
00:40:08 That 2,700 crores, against that,
00:40:11 we have roughly 300 crores of regular profits,
00:40:15 which is what gets netted off
00:40:16 and you end up with roughly 2,400 crores
00:40:19 of reported losses that you mentioned
00:40:22 in your opening remarks.
00:40:23 So that's broadly what has happened.
00:40:25 These AIFs, the 3,400 crores worth of write downs
00:40:28 that we have taken,
00:40:30 our good quality assets capital has been coming in
00:40:32 from these assets.
00:40:33 And so the accounting action that we have taken now
00:40:36 of taking full provisions
00:40:37 doesn't change the economic value of these assets at all.
00:40:40 The economic value continues to be what it was
00:40:43 before we did the action.
00:40:45 We have already received 1,100 crores of cash flow
00:40:49 from these assets in the prior periods.
00:40:53 Just in this financial year, in the last three quarters,
00:40:56 we have received 700 crores of cash flow
00:40:59 from these AIF instruments.
00:41:01 We expect that to continue in the quarters ahead as well.
00:41:05 And now that we have written down
00:41:08 that entire exposure to zero,
00:41:10 all the future cash flows that come in
00:41:12 from those AIF instruments
00:41:15 will accrue to us directly through P&L.
00:41:19 And we do expect almost all of that AIF investment
00:41:24 to be recouped over the next two years.
00:41:27 - That's the word coming in from Piramal Enterprises,
00:41:30 but it's a day of numbers today.
00:41:32 And automaker Maruti, the big one,
00:41:35 came out with their December quarter earnings.
00:41:37 Revenue and net profit have jumped.
00:41:39 Margins have expanded.
00:41:40 Vinay is joining us to give us
00:41:43 the qualitative analysis of the numbers.
00:41:46 Vinay, what are the highlights?
00:41:47 - Yeah, so Maruti Suzuki's profit beat estimates
00:41:52 with a 30% rise due to higher sales
00:41:55 and increased share of SUVs.
00:41:57 Sales rose 7.6% to 5.01 lakh units in the quarter.
00:42:02 And within those sales, if you see,
00:42:04 the utility vehicle sales rose 60%, 1.5 lakh units.
00:42:09 So you can see that clearly the utility vehicle shares
00:42:11 have risen in the overall sales,
00:42:13 and it is clearly benefiting the company.
00:42:16 And if you look at the combination of higher volumes
00:42:19 and rise in average ticket prices
00:42:21 has also aided the company's performance in the quarter.
00:42:24 Revenue rose 15% in the quarter,
00:42:26 and that is also driven by the SUV sales.
00:42:28 And margin expanded to 11.7%
00:42:31 compared with 9.7% last year.
00:42:34 So this margin expansion has been aided
00:42:36 by lower commodity costs.
00:42:38 And if you look at the highest ever quarterly exports,
00:42:43 that has also aided the margins of the company.
00:42:45 If you look at the lower commodity costs,
00:42:47 how they have impacted the company's financials,
00:42:50 the material cost as a percentage of sales
00:42:53 fell 170 basis points to 74%.
00:42:56 So that is how the companies have fared in the quarter
00:42:59 and much better looking future
00:43:01 for the Maruti Suzuki company.
00:43:03 - Vinay, thanks for that.
00:43:07 Well, so, you know, auto and auto link stocks
00:43:09 haven't looked too bad.
00:43:10 Mergun, what did you, I mean,
00:43:11 did you get a chance to look at the Maruti numbers carefully
00:43:13 and if not, anything else in auto
00:43:15 that has stood out for you in this quarter?
00:43:17 - I would say that I would prefer some of the other names,
00:43:20 not the frontline names.
00:43:21 I think that's where the two wheelers goes.
00:43:23 I said last time also,
00:43:25 ultimately see a Bajaj auto going to 10,000.
00:43:27 If you're an investor,
00:43:29 as far as the other names goes, the four wheelers,
00:43:32 I've always liked Tata Motors.
00:43:34 - What's happening? - At this price.
00:43:35 - But what's happening?
00:43:36 No, no, no, what's happening in Tata Motors?
00:43:38 Come on, tell me.
00:43:38 - A lot of things outside the domestic sales
00:43:41 and whatever you was talking for the last two years
00:43:44 are happening.
00:43:45 The company is ventured out, is becoming a leader
00:43:47 and quite a few new things
00:43:49 which ultimately is going to come out.
00:43:51 Now, a lot of things are out of sheer perception.
00:43:53 This will happen, this will happen, this will happen.
00:43:55 So at 900 rupees,
00:43:57 while I will continue to hold on to Tata Motors,
00:43:59 I'm not going to recommend it afresh.
00:44:01 I would go with names like a Force Motors.
00:44:04 I would like to go with a name like an Auto Corporation
00:44:06 of Goa, which ultimately is directly
00:44:09 and directly a Tata Group company.
00:44:10 I would go with those names because I find them
00:44:12 valuation was cheap.
00:44:14 I think Neeraj, we need to accept one thing.
00:44:16 While I'm saying we are going to see an explosive new high,
00:44:18 there are quite a few pockets
00:44:20 where I feel they're costly overvalued.
00:44:22 - Yeah, sure.
00:44:22 - And a pullback is going to cause a hurt to a lot of people.
00:44:26 People are just refusing to sell.
00:44:27 People are not knowing the valuations that they are paying.
00:44:30 So as far as auto names goes,
00:44:31 I feel for the time being, they are all fully valued.
00:44:34 Most of them, most of them.
00:44:35 - I have a quick follow-up.
00:44:36 We're talking about auto names or auto link names
00:44:38 which are seeing higher valuations than seeing selling.
00:44:41 KPID Tech saw that selling.
00:44:43 It's an auto ERD company and hence I'm asking you,
00:44:46 post these numbers, two days on a trot now,
00:44:48 the stock has recovered all of that lost ground and more.
00:44:51 What do you, do you track that at all?
00:44:53 - I don't track it off lead,
00:44:55 but I have met the management in the past
00:44:56 and I have very high rating for them.
00:45:00 So I would say that any sharp pullback
00:45:02 which will happen in the stock,
00:45:03 you can go and buy it because the management somewhere,
00:45:06 I would give them a very high grade
00:45:08 as far as my ranking for them goes.
00:45:10 But I'm not tracking the stock off lead,
00:45:12 so not very fair on my part to comment beyond the point.
00:45:14 - Okay, Jay Bala, autos, Maruti higher,
00:45:17 Tata Motors higher,
00:45:19 some of the auto link names like KPID Tech higher,
00:45:21 are any of the charts looking attractive?
00:45:23 - Yeah, definitely.
00:45:25 KPID is definitely looking attractive.
00:45:27 The high it saw in December,
00:45:30 it's like an incomplete structure for me.
00:45:32 And probably for the higher highs due,
00:45:35 probably all time highs too,
00:45:37 somewhere in the region of 1800 to 2000 probably.
00:45:41 Obviously it's an volatile stock.
00:45:44 And even I've been saying for several months now,
00:45:47 I prefer two wheelers within the auto space
00:45:50 rather than the four wheelers.
00:45:51 And I've been bullish on Bajaj and TBS Motors.
00:45:54 And of course, within the four wheeler space,
00:45:57 Tata Motors is doing much better than Maruti
00:46:00 or Mahindra and Mahindra.
00:46:01 So, if you're gonna be there,
00:46:03 obviously the ranking is Tata Motors
00:46:05 and the rest of the pack out there.
00:46:07 Yeah, so that's my pecking order for the moment.
00:46:11 And did I miss any other stock in the space?
00:46:16 - No, no, I mean, I think you kind of gave me my answer,
00:46:18 Jay, that I was looking for.
00:46:20 So it's good to get that feel
00:46:22 of what's happening across that pocket.
00:46:24 Now, let's try and talk about Dabur
00:46:28 and the numbers that came out.
00:46:30 Ankush Jain, CF of the company Johnson right now
00:46:32 to talk about the quarter and the outlook ahead.
00:46:35 Ankush, good having you.
00:46:35 Thanks for taking the time out and speaking to us.
00:46:38 How do you characterize what's happening,
00:46:42 what's happening in the quarter?
00:46:44 And is there a turn of events?
00:46:45 Because we are hearing fairly divergent trends
00:46:48 around the pain in the rural market
00:46:50 versus the infra pushed by the government
00:46:53 leading to higher spending possibilities
00:46:56 from the rural market
00:46:57 because the bank account balances are strong.
00:46:58 So you guys are the exact pulse,
00:47:01 or no, the exact pulse of what's happening in the market.
00:47:03 So tell us what happened in the quarter gone by.
00:47:06 How do you expect the quarter to come,
00:47:07 quarter which is currently on to go like?
00:47:11 - Thanks, Mr. Paul.
00:47:13 Good afternoon to you and all your viewers.
00:47:15 - Very good afternoon.
00:47:16 - And thanks for having me here.
00:47:18 Let's start with our overall quarterly results.
00:47:21 While the quarter has been a really challenging environment
00:47:24 where you see the contraction in demand and et cetera,
00:47:28 but our revenue has grown by 7%
00:47:30 and almost 9.6% in constant currency,
00:47:34 which is leading industry growth,
00:47:37 which is also coupled with gain in market share
00:47:40 and also increasing in our route to market,
00:47:43 increase in religious et cetera.
00:47:45 So we are pretty confident that with this growth
00:47:48 and gain in market share,
00:47:49 our momentum continues and the strategy of our power brand,
00:47:53 power strategy, our route to market,
00:47:55 increase in religious, increase in religious,
00:47:59 outlet coverage, our salesman efficiency, et cetera,
00:48:02 is working pretty fine.
00:48:04 And this was pretty broad-based growth
00:48:06 with international business also going by 14%,
00:48:10 India volume growth by 4%
00:48:11 which is one of the highest in the industry.
00:48:15 And on top of it, our operating margins also expanded 50 bids
00:48:19 and on a like to like basis by almost 120 bids
00:48:23 because it was one of our abnormal cost in the current year.
00:48:28 Having said that, we continue to gain market share
00:48:34 in almost 95% of our categories
00:48:37 where you see a highly competitive categories
00:48:40 like hair oil, we gained 140 bids,
00:48:43 we introduced in the nectar, almost 20 bids,
00:48:46 seven brush, though there has been a stress in consumption
00:48:49 but we still gain 151 bids market share,
00:48:53 mosquito repellents almost a thousand bids.
00:48:56 So it's backed by good fundamental growth
00:49:00 which means the brand equity is resonating
00:49:03 with the consumer and then there's the traction of our brand
00:49:07 even amidst this challenging stressful environment.
00:49:10 Now the second part of the query was
00:49:13 how do you look forward in Q4,
00:49:15 in Q4 which is the current quarter.
00:49:18 While we expect a similar momentum to grow
00:49:21 and we are still waiting for summer to kick in
00:49:26 because most of our beverage season sales
00:49:29 will start happening by end of this quarter.
00:49:32 Likewise, we're also pretty hopeful
00:49:34 at this point of time as I speak,
00:49:36 our winter will be late
00:49:38 but there's some bit of traction
00:49:39 on our even winter portfolio,
00:49:41 though the results are yet to be seen
00:49:43 from the market syndicated data.
00:49:45 But I think we will continue with our growth momentum
00:49:49 the way we have been doing
00:49:51 and on a YGB basis our growth is close to 8%.
00:49:55 On a third part of the query in terms of
00:49:58 how is it diverging to the industry?
00:50:01 Yes, even we have been noticing
00:50:04 that our growth indicators are pretty divergent
00:50:07 to what has been a commentary
00:50:08 by some of the other players.
00:50:12 While we see that rural is still lagging
00:50:15 and it is almost 10 or 11 quarters in a row
00:50:18 where rural growth for the industry as a large
00:50:22 is lagging urban.
00:50:25 However, the point is that
00:50:27 the delta between the two growth trends
00:50:30 is emerging or converging.
00:50:34 Earlier it used to be as high as 500 to 600 bit
00:50:37 lower growth in rural.
00:50:40 Now the growth is lower by only 200 bits.
00:50:44 Having said that, for us it is exactly the contrary.
00:50:48 For us, growth in rural is almost 200 bits higher
00:50:53 than urban in the current quarter
00:50:55 and there are very good reasons for that.
00:50:57 As we said earlier, because of our operating margin expansion
00:51:01 and because of deflation,
00:51:04 our growth margin expansion,
00:51:05 we have been investing ahead of the curve.
00:51:07 Not only in power, in brand building,
00:51:10 but also in our route to market.
00:51:12 So we have increased our village coverage,
00:51:15 we have increased our village level entrepreneurs,
00:51:20 we have increased our distribution footprint.
00:51:22 So that's giving positive results.
00:51:25 - Got it.
00:51:26 Ankush, I'm just trying to understand,
00:51:27 based on the trends that you would have seen in the quarter,
00:51:30 maybe some spillover effect,
00:51:32 maybe the trends in the first month of the current calendar,
00:51:35 how do you think Q4 shapes up
00:51:39 and how do you think overall as a year you could end with?
00:51:43 Simply because, meeting expectations is one thing.
00:51:48 Is there a possibility by any chance
00:51:50 that you could even beat expectations
00:51:55 or estimates that you would have started off with?
00:51:57 - No.
00:51:58 So while I said, growth momentum will continue
00:52:01 in the similar range as we have done in quarter three
00:52:04 and also at the nine-month level,
00:52:07 it's pretty early at this point of time
00:52:09 to comment on the exact numbers of Q4.
00:52:11 - Sure, I don't want exact numbers, Ankush.
00:52:13 I'm just trying to get a flavor.
00:52:15 Please appreciate, I'm not wanting exact numbers,
00:52:16 I understand you can't give me.
00:52:17 - Yeah.
00:52:18 So I think it'll be similar range
00:52:20 to what we have done so far in nine months
00:52:23 and also in quarter, they're all similar.
00:52:25 So we are really, I think, hopeful of at least meeting these
00:52:29 numbers with the trend.
00:52:31 However, having said that, just off late,
00:52:33 we have seen some liquidity pressure also in the market.
00:52:36 So we are still evaluating and let's see.
00:52:40 And we are hopeful of that, yeah.
00:52:42 - Okay.
00:52:43 - Ankush, hi, Tamanna here.
00:52:44 Just a couple of questions.
00:52:45 I'm interested in what you're saying about
00:52:48 your rural growth outpacing your urban
00:52:52 and the gap also closing industry-wise.
00:52:55 What is your forecast for rural growth
00:52:58 and rural consumption?
00:52:59 How do you see that panning out?
00:53:01 - Yeah.
00:53:03 While I've always been optimistic of rural
00:53:06 because the per capita consumption in rural industry
00:53:09 is the least compared to urban.
00:53:12 We thought it will overtake urban.
00:53:14 We thought it a quarter or so earlier,
00:53:17 but it has been somehow prolonged or delayed.
00:53:20 Maybe a couple of reasons.
00:53:22 The lag impact of the capital expenditure
00:53:24 of the government is yet to be seen.
00:53:26 But I think while we are certain that
00:53:30 the growth momentum should accelerate
00:53:33 or be at least in line with urban,
00:53:36 it's only a matter of timing,
00:53:38 whether two months from now or three months from now.
00:53:41 Once also, with the election year
00:53:43 and elections now around the corner,
00:53:45 I think a lot of spending power will go into rural.
00:53:49 Plus the lag impact of the capital expenditure,
00:53:52 which we'll also get into.
00:53:54 It's only a matter of time.
00:53:56 I can't say with certainty two months or two quarters,
00:54:00 but on a long-term horizon,
00:54:03 we certainly feel that rural should outpace urban.
00:54:06 For every category, it is very under-indexed to urban
00:54:10 and the aspirations of rural consumers
00:54:12 are definitely increasing.
00:54:14 And also now, with more of modern trade
00:54:18 and e-com channels, accessibility going to rural,
00:54:23 that should also give a very slip in the mid to long term.
00:54:28 - Yeah, one last question, Ankush,
00:54:29 because I'm speaking with you on the eve
00:54:31 of the interim budget,
00:54:33 and we're talking about push to rural consumption.
00:54:35 What do you expect or hope to see in this direction?
00:54:38 - Yeah, hope to see in the election or what?
00:54:42 - The budget tomorrow, interim budget.
00:54:44 - Tomorrow's budget, yeah.
00:54:46 So while it's a vote on the budget,
00:54:48 but while we see that the government will continue
00:54:52 with impetus and momentum on the capital expenditure,
00:54:57 increased outlay towards that,
00:54:59 more infrastructure because there's a direct
00:55:02 multiplier impact on the consumption.
00:55:04 It increases more jobs, employment,
00:55:08 puts more money in the hands of consumers,
00:55:11 especially rural.
00:55:12 So I'm sure with the current government
00:55:15 focus on infrastructure development,
00:55:17 it should be positive and they will continue this.
00:55:21 Yeah.
00:55:22 - Ankush, much appreciate you joining in.
00:55:23 All the best with some of the market share gains
00:55:25 that you've had in the portfolios as well,
00:55:27 and keep up with the margin show.
00:55:30 Thanks for taking the time out,
00:55:31 looking forward to talk to you again soon.
00:55:32 - Yeah, thank you so much.
00:55:34 - All right, just about markets ending,
00:55:36 so we couldn't get in those details out,
00:55:38 but it's five minutes left for the markets to shut shop.
00:55:41 And if we just look at what they have done,
00:55:43 while one can't say that we've reversed
00:55:44 the losses of yesterday,
00:55:46 but I think at 0.88% for the Sensex or for the Nifty,
00:55:50 you have to admit that this turned out
00:55:52 into a fine, fine session of trade ahead of the budget.
00:55:55 Yesterday, the markets did the unexpected.
00:55:57 Today, quite stunning, the kind of gains
00:56:00 that we've had in the large caps as well.
00:56:03 Mehrabun, a lot of people believe that
00:56:07 if you get HDFC Bank at the levels that you're getting at,
00:56:10 at the valuations that you're getting at,
00:56:12 it's a steal.
00:56:13 Do you think so?
00:56:14 - Absolutely no complaints with the numbers,
00:56:16 and I find it very amusing when people say
00:56:19 the numbers are not very good.
00:56:20 We have to understand that it's going to take
00:56:21 at least two to three more quarters
00:56:24 for things to settle down as far as the merger goes.
00:56:26 So as far as I know, there's nothing wrong with the bank.
00:56:30 It's doing very well.
00:56:31 Numbers will be good.
00:56:32 It's only that the loan book of HDFC
00:56:35 got transferred to HDFC Bank,
00:56:36 and we all know that the loans, home loans,
00:56:39 are always at a lower rate as compared to,
00:56:42 say, a consumer loans.
00:56:43 So that is where some margin hit happens.
00:56:45 Point number two is, when the loans get transferred,
00:56:47 you have credit deposit ratio becoming 110%.
00:56:51 It will take its own time to play out,
00:56:53 maybe a couple of quarters more.
00:56:55 Now, as far as the stock goes,
00:56:57 yes, if I'm going to look at things
00:56:58 for the next two, three years,
00:57:00 I'm going to earn money.
00:57:02 Maybe over the next one year, I will earn money.
00:57:04 But in the meantime, it is distinctly possible
00:57:07 the stock may shed another five, seven, eight, 10%.
00:57:10 I'm not ruling it out in the shorter term.
00:57:13 But where is the hurry to buy into it right now
00:57:17 when there are better opportunities,
00:57:19 relatively, in the PSU bank space?
00:57:22 That's the way I would put it.
00:57:22 So HDFC Bank, I'm holding it.
00:57:24 I know that it's not going to do anything for me.
00:57:26 But it's such a great bank.
00:57:27 I'm not in a hurry to sell
00:57:29 because I've got other things in my portfolio,
00:57:30 which is possibly taking care of the loss
00:57:33 I'm suffering in HDFC Bank right now.
00:57:35 But if you are asking me that,
00:57:36 should I buy the stock for the next
00:57:37 one, two, three, four, five months?
00:57:39 My answer would be no.
00:57:40 Wait for some more time.
00:57:41 I think next two quarters,
00:57:42 things should play itself better for HDFC Bank.
00:57:45 In terms of operating performance,
00:57:46 I don't see any problem.
00:57:47 All right, Mehraboon, great to have you in the studios.
00:57:52 Thanks, thanks a lot.
00:57:52 We have just about three minutes to closing.
00:57:54 I'm going to take a quick last call from Jai on BTSD.
00:57:59 Is there a long list or no list right now, Jai?
00:58:01 Till you decide what's going to happen tomorrow.
00:58:04 Yeah, there is opportunity out there.
00:58:07 But as I said, I've been bullish on the real estate sector.
00:58:11 So DLF can be a BTSD,
00:58:13 but the stock has to be pretty tight.
00:58:15 Or if you can afford to hold on for a little bit longer,
00:58:19 like more than just one session,
00:58:21 probably more opportunity there for price objective
00:58:24 close to 860 to 875.
00:58:26 So positive on DLF.
00:58:28 And trend is, I'm negative there, it's an STBT there.
00:58:32 I need to put a stop at about,
00:58:34 not a STBT, more like positional chart.
00:58:37 It's got a stellar run since 2020, 2021.
00:58:43 I think that's coming to an end.
00:58:44 Although it's up for the longer term,
00:58:47 we could see extreme short term correction
00:58:48 there somewhere close to 2700.
00:58:51 Wow, okay, that's a steep one.
00:58:53 Jai Bala, maybe the next time that we speak,
00:58:56 let's see what's happened to trend
00:58:57 because you are called Polycap so well.
00:59:00 Let's just see how this one behaves.
00:59:01 But thanks for your time today.
00:59:02 Mehraboon, thanks for your time today.
00:59:03 Sorry, we were not able to do justice,
00:59:05 but a quick market wrap.
00:59:07 You know, we haven't even discussed stocks
00:59:09 like Zen Technologies, which has been on an upper circuit
00:59:11 for three consecutive days.
00:59:13 And that's the power of good earnings.
00:59:15 And we've seen some bit of example
00:59:16 to the Wellspan and some of the others.
00:59:18 But, okay, thanks for that.
00:59:20 Let's first get the heat map up
00:59:23 because the Nifty and the Sensex we know are doing well.
00:59:25 Let's see what's aiding this move in the session today.
00:59:28 Dr. Reddy's 4.5% out of nowhere.
00:59:31 We're talking about autos doing well.
00:59:33 Look at Aishwar, look at Mahindra and Mahindra,
00:59:37 look at Maruti.
00:59:38 I think that whole bucket, Tata Motors, that whole bucket.
00:59:41 So it's a day that belongs to pharmaceuticals and autos.
00:59:44 Very unlikely for these two have a common trend,
00:59:46 but that's what we're seeing in the session today.
00:59:48 Look at Pharma.
00:59:49 Reddy's, Sun Pharma, Divi's, Cipla.
00:59:53 It's a really strong show.
00:59:55 The Adani twins, Enterprises and Ports are doing well.
00:59:58 There is some bit of strength in Ultratech as well.
01:00:02 So Ambuja's issues for the quarter
01:00:05 and the stock is down today
01:00:06 has not impacted some of the other cement names.
01:00:09 And just three losers, the principal one being Larson
01:00:12 and Tubro down in the session today.
01:00:15 So that's the long and short of what's happened
01:00:17 in the large cap end of the market.
01:00:19 We are almost done.
01:00:20 Just quick advanced decline ratio check
01:00:23 to just show you what happened
01:00:24 at the broader end of the spectrum today
01:00:26 and how we stayed good for a better part of the day.
01:00:29 And you can argue that it's come off a little bit
01:00:32 from where it started off maybe
01:00:34 or where it was at the first one hour,
01:00:37 but it's not a bad advanced decline ratio.
01:00:39 And I think the markets will take it with both hands.
01:00:42 From Tamanna and me and the team
01:00:43 that put this show together,
01:00:45 thank you so much for watching.
01:00:46 We'll be back tomorrow with all the budget conversations
01:00:50 from 8 a.m. till 4 p.m.
01:00:52 We'll be with you, telling you in the most simple language
01:00:55 with the best of guests
01:00:57 about what to do ahead of the budget,
01:00:59 what is the budget statement looking like,
01:01:01 and we'll analyze that with the best experts
01:01:04 post the budget statement as well.
01:01:06 (upbeat music)
01:01:09 (upbeat music)
01:01:11 (upbeat music)