#Nifty, #Sensex fall more as #RIL, #BajajFinance, #ITC drag.
Samina Nalwala and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Samina Nalwala and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00:00 are at the day's low point on the nifty and the sensex back below levels of 21 600 21 582
00:00:06 is what we have on your nifty remember we started the day at around 21 712 so you've actually
00:00:12 sold off quite sharply from the day's high which was at opening this morning the sensex also trades
00:00:18 the gain of nearly one percent 600 points gone off the sensex profit taking after a sharp rally
00:00:23 that we saw in trade yesterday bang nifty is down three tenths of a percent fin nifty if i can pull
00:00:28 that up will give you a better sense of what's happening remember fin nifty contains uh the
00:00:32 bajaj twins and that's trading with a cut of seven tenths of a percent in terms of the other sectors
00:00:37 that are losing you've got fmcg consumer durables uh taking a bit of a hit this afternoon on the
00:00:42 gaining side you've got it that doesn't look too bad metals and media are the three sectors that
00:00:47 are still holding themselves in positive territory not hugely positive but still not doing too badly
00:00:52 metals of the day's high point but still trading higher media which was up quite sharply is also
00:00:57 given up some gains already trading now with the gain of seven tenths of a percent well let's take
00:01:02 a look at the big moves and shakers the breadth of the market's quite weak the bias clearly is on
00:01:06 the downside which you've got more gainers with more losers and gainers in trade this afternoon
00:01:11 well on the losing side it's the bajaj twins that have taken it to the chin disappointing numbers
00:01:16 from bajaj finance the stock opened with a gap down of five percent and trades at those levels
00:01:21 even as we speak bajaj pinserv reported earnings markets don't seem to please the counter trading
00:01:26 with the cut of nearly three percent in trade along with that itc it wasn't a very impressive
00:01:31 quarter for itc apart from the hotels business everything else for itc was actually uh slightly
00:01:36 disappointing uh the volumes and the cigarette business have also declined that's an aberration
00:01:41 so all those factors have led to the counter seeing a cut of two and a half percent in trade
00:01:46 right now well along with that ril after a seven percent up move trades with a loss of two percent
00:01:51 profit taking after such a sharp rally on the counter is bound to happen and that's really
00:01:56 what's playing out for the stock as well well on the gaining side the day yesterday belonged to
00:02:00 upstream companies today it's all about downstream your omcs are actually doing quite well bpcl still
00:02:05 trades the gain of four percent was higher by uh five and a half six percent but still trading
00:02:10 high by about three and a half to four percent tata motors aisha ahead of auto sales in the first
00:02:15 of jan and actually looking pretty good both those counters are locking in gains as we speak hul
00:02:20 doesn't look too bad adani group companies continue to rally after yesterday's gain on back of the
00:02:26 upgrade coming from canterfitzgill adani enterprise up over a percent metal names like i said on back
00:02:31 of a weaker dollar maybe some conversations in china is worth supporting some of those metal
00:02:36 names or could be simply sector rotation but all in all it's a down day of trade uh harsh no
00:02:42 surprises we rallied so sharply yesterday that you're seeing some profit coming off the table
00:02:46 ahead of the big events lined up absolutely samina and you know certain specific stocks as
00:02:50 well which are in focus largely on the back of news based events rather than anything else amina
00:02:56 you're seeing a clutch of stocks on the back of of course order wins that has been order of the day
00:03:01 in fact order of the week as well we saw a bunch of stocks buzzing yesterday on the back of that as
00:03:06 well so let's pull up something like a z uh z entertainment uh you know that that one on the
00:03:14 you know on the back of lots of news is up roughly five percent suntech reality new order win 3 000
00:03:21 odd crore of gdv our stock is up three percent on the back of that you also have the likes of a case
00:03:26 international again order win and igl is also up after it had its con call yesterday and you have
00:03:35 both of those up roughly two percent of their bouts some of the others which are also up in
00:03:39 trade on the back of numbers that they've disclosed garvare tech let's pull that one up
00:03:45 tata investment is also up uh garvare tech six percent down tata investment twenty percent up
00:03:52 restaurant brands strong set of numbers good margins stock is up and away in trade you also
00:03:58 have petronet lng which is up two percent then if i can pull up something like a strides pharma
00:04:03 that one's done fairly well as well our margins up by roughly five percent on a year-over-year basis
00:04:09 and strides pharma is also up roughly two and a half percent it's back to you samina yeah so there's
00:04:14 a whole bunch of gainers in trade across the broader markets largely that's where the action is
00:04:19 another one to mention is ganesh benzoplast some activity on that counter as well very sharp rally
00:04:25 is what you're seeing on ganesh pendoplat's matute microfinance i'm not sure if harsh mentioned it
00:04:30 but on back of good numbers matute microfinance is also trading quite well in the session 10 percent
00:04:37 higher on matute microfinance is what we have you also have uti asset management that's not doing
00:04:42 too badly so if i can pull up uti asset management it's off the day's high point but at some stage
00:04:48 in early hours of trade the stock had clocked in gains of over 10 odd percent some profit booking
00:04:52 is what we've seen on the counter on the sell side you've got fashion brands like vedan fashions and
00:04:58 trent both trading with the cut of five and a half percent and seven percent each borosil renewables
00:05:04 that was rallying very sharply on back of the solar ceiling is roofs rather is having a little
00:05:10 bit of a down day five percent cut on borosil renewable is what we are picking up on ntpc lower
00:05:16 barrett forge ultratex cement as some of the other names aptus is seeing a cut this afternoon two and
00:05:22 a half percent lower is largely what the scene is realist railway names also seeing a cut so stocks
00:05:28 like irfc real tail taking a bit of a break ahead of the big budget that's expected in the next day
00:05:34 or two and it's on thursday itself so that's really the market momentum quiet stock specific
00:05:40 trade largely reacting to earnings is what we are picking up on well let's quickly take you through
00:05:46 what market participants believe in terms of market action this afternoon we have with us
00:05:51 two very special guests joining us to walk us through market activity nagraj chetty senior
00:05:57 research analyst of hdfc securities and dharmesh kumth head equity research hola securities joins
00:06:03 in uh thanks gentlemen thanks for joining us this afternoon uh dharmesh i'll come to you first
00:06:08 what is the call in the nifty right now a bit of a breather after yesterday's sharp rally
00:06:13 fundamentally would you be initiating any positions tactical positions of course ahead of the budget
00:06:21 no no no tactical positions no i mean yesterday was a stupendous rally thanks to what happened
00:06:26 in bihar investment ball so because on those political developments we had a surge in the
00:06:32 market yesterday it was more than what the expectation was so today we are seeing some
00:06:37 profit taking happening out there and one should take a back seat now be on the fence and watch the
00:06:44 market for next couple of days i'm expecting a good correction in the market post the events are
00:06:50 over and one is the domestic event that is the auto account or a button budget on first frame
00:06:55 and before that we would also be through with fomc emitting outcome in the us so these are two
00:07:00 major events playing out and my own senses is this heat in the market it should come down to normal
00:07:07 temperature levels and then again the climate will start so we'll see after that nagraj very quickly
00:07:13 the trade on the nifty we opened at levels of 21 700 plus now sub 21 600 would you consider going
00:07:22 longer than nifty at these levels i know we've got the big event on thursday but just ahead of that
00:07:26 initiating a long trade for maybe for tomorrow if not thursday hi good afternoon samina looking at
00:07:34 the way the market has bounced back recently from the lower levels the chart pattern is
00:07:39 indicating whatever the decline we are seeing right now is going to be absorbed in the next
00:07:44 day or two the consolidation moment and the weakness in the late second part of this session
00:07:50 indicating a bio-index opportunity i'm expecting upside bounce from here currently nifty is facing
00:07:56 resistance around 21 750 or labels and after this consolidation or a minor weakness eventually we
00:08:02 are going to see the decisive upside breakout of this 21 750 21 800 labels and nifty could
00:08:09 head towards the gap area of previous opening downscap downside gap around 21 980 levels
00:08:15 right uh nagraj if i can also quickly quiz you with regard to the views on the nifty bank
00:08:22 um you know we've had some pressure on that one today uh how do you view that ahead of of course
00:08:30 the big budget as well as uh uh you know the way the nifty has moved as well as the nifty bank
00:08:36 uh how do you view it on charts at the moment yeah obviously that nifty banking sector was
00:08:44 lagging compared to the benchmark
00:08:47 the last few sessions and recently we have seen some good upside bounces from the 200 dm around
00:09:00 4000 and on any deep strong here is going to be like bank radio from the bank and i'm expecting
00:09:07 a bio-index opportunity as well uh 44 500 is going to be the strong support right nagraj
00:09:13 hang in there that was the view coming in on the nifty and bang nifty but uh shifting gears
00:09:19 to an important earnings that came through suresh manglani ed and c of adani total gas joins in
00:09:25 to break those numbers down for us afternoon mr manglani thanks for joining us uh mr manglani to
00:09:31 begin with can you highlight for us what has contributed to this stellar performance that
00:09:37 we've seen in the fourth quarter thank you thank you for inviting adani total gas on your channel
00:09:44 we have given results today with 13 overall increase in our volume
00:09:51 24 increase in our cng volume on quarter on quarter basis and our consolidated abita is
00:09:58 now crossed uh 847 46 crore 20 percent growth on year year on year basis the the drivers as you ask
00:10:08 the four mainly four drivers one is certainly our vision of gotham buys to continuously accelerate
00:10:15 infrastructure development for both png as well as for the cng second is india's growth story
00:10:22 has certainly helped us to grow our volume to double digit uh trajectory third of course is
00:10:28 the supportive policy formulation both by government of india and the regulator and the last
00:10:34 uh the the last important point is our team's customer centricity approach we have been keeping
00:10:42 the pulse on the market that what kind of a customer incentives are required how do we grow
00:10:47 the volume on each segment whether it is a domestic segment cng volume industrial and commercial
00:10:53 value so in summary i think these factors and many other factors in terms of our eyes on the opex
00:11:00 have certainly helped us to achieve these uh good numbers set of numbers indeed sir sir let's talk
00:11:08 about the cgd licenses currently the whole country is being covered with cgd licenses and are being
00:11:15 implemented all over the nation and you are one of the largest players in the cgd industry what
00:11:22 is your view on the cgd industry going ahead and how do you see the gas market shaping up for the
00:11:27 country so it's very good question actually uh if you see a donnie total gas perspective we are today
00:11:36 in terms of a number of licenses we are the largest cgd company with 33 geographical area
00:11:43 94 districts as a standalone basis and we have one joint venture company with
00:11:49 indian oil corporation we have again their 19 geographical area and 30 districts so in total
00:11:56 we have 124 districts uh under the cgd licensing uh the regulator has now completed uh recently
00:12:06 with the 12th round that's licenses award for entire country and also if you see from a shaping
00:12:13 of a gas market i think india is seeing unprecedented development on all fronts
00:12:20 national gas grid is on under the development stage including gas pipeline to the northern
00:12:27 eastern area or jammu and kashmir on other hand cgd development is going on across the country
00:12:33 for providing png and cng to large number of consumers as we say
00:12:38 is what government of india is driving png regulator png rb has now recently launched
00:12:49 nationwide png drive which is again will bring awareness and built up of the momentum of the
00:12:55 volume in terms of rng terminal we are seeing existing terminal enhancing capacity and the
00:13:03 rng terminal under commissioning are going to be uh recent now operationalized in terms of a
00:13:09 domestic gas production again there also we are seeing increase happening from a domestic side
00:13:15 so i think if you see overall uh there's a lot of good developments are taking place on oil and gas
00:13:21 front side there is a holistic focus by government of india whether on upstream side midstream side
00:13:27 or downstream side similarly png rb as a regulator is playing its supportive role for growth of an
00:13:34 industry so at atgl we certainly see a good traction happening on cng cgd development
00:13:41 as well as growth of both png and cng volume right mr mangalani now you know just trying to
00:13:48 understand of course you've given us a good comprehensive understanding of what's happening
00:13:53 nationwide but what's your investment going to be like what's the investment pipeline capex like
00:13:59 so as i stated uh you know we have 33 geographical area 14 geographical recently we got
00:14:08 under 11th round we have already intensified our capex investment in ninth and tenth round and now
00:14:14 we are enhancing our capex rollout in 11th round so as we have been already stating earlier we have
00:14:21 planned to roughly invest 16 to 18 000 crore in the next seven to eight year in developing png
00:14:30 and cng infrastructure entire all our geographical areas right um so also you know with regard to gas
00:14:42 prices they've been volatile over the last couple of years so how do you see uh gas prices trend
00:14:47 going forward and will this be a challenge for the industry going forward as well you see uh one of
00:14:55 the very very strong support came from uh government of india when it set up a expert
00:15:02 committee to decide the pricing regime for apm gas for cgd companies particularly for uh pipe
00:15:13 natural gas for homes and cng for vehicle which are priority sector in this under the cgd business
00:15:20 so their government has now put in the ceiling of six and a half dollar that beyond that that price
00:15:26 will not go and future it will grow up very very uh you know with 0.25 dollars per year
00:15:33 that is a extremely good support to atl also because atl is uh getting around 50 to 60 percent
00:15:41 of apm gas allocation on the overall gas pricing point of view we have another source of a domestic
00:15:49 gas coming on hbht there also government has put in the ceiling upper ceiling on what price it could
00:15:56 be sold so that also the production is increasing on the rng side what we are seeing now is that the
00:16:04 what in the past recently we saw very high price trajectory is now moving towards the moderation
00:16:10 of a price curve in our view i think this moderation of price curve will continue we are
00:16:17 seeing uh excess lng supply happening uh later part of 25 or 26 onwards that will certainly
00:16:27 benefit developing countries like india because we are developing several rng terminals so our
00:16:33 view is that pricing of the rlng as well as the gas will be on a moderation curve it is a good
00:16:41 news for cgb companies as well as for the end consumers mr mingla mr minglani let's change
00:16:48 gears now what are your plans on lng as fuel for transportation if you can walk us through that
00:16:54 that'd be useful it's a very good question actually uh if you see adani total gas is currently in
00:17:04 selling cng we are developing compressed biogas cbg we are also setting up ev charging station
00:17:13 for a e-mobility business segment one of the another sector which is developing after the
00:17:18 policy clarity which has come that sale of lng in the liquid form to the transport sector
00:17:26 would be free for anyone to set up lng station anywhere in the country we see this is a big
00:17:33 opportunity second development took place by the recommendation which have come by energy
00:17:40 transition committee which suggest phasing out of hsd diesel to the lng for long haul trucks and
00:17:48 buses in the phase manner and third of course is india's vision for climate support cause
00:17:56 all three put together if you see we are seeing several corporates looking for cleaner fuels for
00:18:03 their transport segment how do we decarbonize or bring more sustainable fuel so keeping these
00:18:11 aspects in mind we have started the setting up lng station in india we have identified large
00:18:18 number of strategic location and currently we are procuring land parcels and we have started
00:18:24 construction of few stations registration in the country we see this as a good opportunity because
00:18:31 almost 45 to 46 percent of hsd is being used by heavy vehicles trucks as well as on the long haul
00:18:42 buses and government vision is to bring more and more cleaner fuels for the transport sector so our
00:18:49 view is these supportive policies as well as corporate desire towards adopting cleaner fuel
00:18:56 will help us to grow lng business for transport sector right uh mr manglani very lastly uh you
00:19:06 have created two spvs one for ev and the other for biofuels bring us up to speed where things
00:19:14 stand on those fronts and also how do you see newer fuels shaping up going ahead thank you for
00:19:22 asking this question you know we have two spvs one adani total energy's e-mobility which is
00:19:30 driving our e-mobility business and another is the uh adani total biomass limited which is driving the
00:19:38 cbg and organic manure business we all know that government is developing very supportive policies
00:19:47 both for e-mobility side as well as for the cbg side our both companies are doing good work at
00:19:54 looking at the very short period we have incorporated uh today on the e-mobility side
00:19:59 i am very happy to inform you that within a short period of time we are already spreading our evv
00:20:05 charging station in 10 states at 46 cities and soon in the future we plan to grow to 20 states
00:20:14 and 130 cities on the cbg side we are already setting up india's largest cbg plant in bursana
00:20:25 near matra it is 600 tons per day feedstock we hope to commission the phase one of bursana plant
00:20:34 in this financial year by march end we have also been awarded a municipal solid waste contract for
00:20:42 the concession for 500 tons per day feedstock from amdabad municipal corporation and we have
00:20:49 started all the preparatory work and we are we are hoping to soon start commencement of a
00:20:54 construction of amdabad municipal corporation and we have developed the plan for both spvs
00:21:00 for multi-fold growth on e-mobility business side ev charging station side as well as
00:21:06 on setting up more and more cbg plant growing organic manure which is what is going to be the
00:21:12 need of our in the coming decade so both sides business uh is growing well uh from the fuel
00:21:20 basket side i think india is a very large country with 1.4 billion population we see a
00:21:29 multi-fuel fuel basket will exist we have petrol diesel we now have a cng in india we have a cbg
00:21:38 we have started seeing traction on ev charging now we are also seeing long-haul trucks and buses
00:21:47 are using lng in india and future we will certainly see hydrogen being used for transport vehicles so
00:21:53 and adani total gas is is developing the the the good rich fuel basket for serving the end
00:22:01 consumers right thank you so much for all of that perspective mr manglani will let you go on that
00:22:07 one uh let me quickly though go to our guests for views uh dharmesh if i can come to you any view
00:22:14 if at all on adani total gas and what's your sense with regard to the future and the valuation
00:22:22 yeah i mean business-wise things will be rosier from here on it's picking up
00:22:27 the things out there so i don't think there's a problem as regard to getting of the business and
00:22:33 so rightly opened that the multiple alternate sources all will exist together as far as fuel
00:22:39 is concerned so be it you know gas or cng png petrol diesel ev solar everything will coexist
00:22:45 because the demand is very huge in india and still we are around say one tenth of what the
00:22:52 us consumes as far as energy is concerned per capita condition i'm talking about so this big
00:22:57 picture is there but my only concern is as regard to two things one is the balance sheet concern and
00:23:01 the other is the valuation concern so valuation we all know is trading at around 200 210 times
00:23:06 p multiple based on present earning so it's a very long short call the best it can grow is 20 25
00:23:13 percent kind of a kaggle on the revenue front the expansion plan which the gentleman just spoke
00:23:18 about was around 16 to 18 000 hot crores and even if you take 10 year kind of a period horizon
00:23:24 it boils around 60 to 1800 crores of additional funding solution every year
00:23:29 and present debt plus long-term debt is around 4000 or so 35 to 40 percent of our you know
00:23:37 balance sheet heavy heaviness i mean the heavier balance sheet will become every year based on this
00:23:42 sun rate which i am talking about a more of a conservative and a delayed run rate it is likely
00:23:47 to be faster than that so that will keep both the arithmetic not in place the evaluation part
00:23:53 and the interest burden on the balance sheet which will have a lower r o e multiple so that's the
00:23:59 only concern beyond that it's difficult to comprehend which energy form will eventually
00:24:06 win by all senses ev and the way you know p.m spoke about uh solar rooftops on more than one
00:24:14 progress household so eventually even png will give way to electrical appliances in the kitchens
00:24:21 be it otg oven or the microwaves as indians switch to more of a continental food cycle
00:24:27 and food taste so that is how the future looks to me but as of now each of these companies will
00:24:33 enjoy business profitability will be there revolution is definitely a big concern out there
00:24:37 right valuations are a little bit of a concern fundamentally nagraj on the charts how are these
00:24:43 adani group companies looking i mean adani enterprise even on a down day like today
00:24:48 is up about one odd percent any of these adani stocks you would consider a long trade on
00:24:54 yes um i can say that yes from last two sessions today also is up by one percent looking chartically
00:25:05 it is looking still positive after a sharp upside bounce we have seen some zigzag moment and
00:25:11 we have seen some corrections minor correction currently placed at 3100 levels overall chart
00:25:16 pattern is stable and looking positive i'm expecting at any point of time after the
00:25:21 consolidation this 31 20 31 30 resistance is going to be taken on the upper side
00:25:27 and eventually this talk would trade higher in the coming sessions
00:25:31 right thanks a lot for that perspective uh you know standard disclaimer and dtv group is owned
00:25:40 by the adani group of companies uh but with that let me quickly slip into a very short break
00:25:46 you know we'll have more on the other side we'll go understand what fno q's are looking like and
00:25:51 we'll continue to be a little more stock specific try to understand what's playing out also bajaj
00:25:55 finance we'll focus on that one stay tuned
00:26:07 so
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00:28:36 so welcome back you're watching india market open today's market move is not looking good this
00:28:44 afternoon we are seeing some pressure selling emerging after a big rally in trade yesterday
00:28:49 the nifty now trades with a cut of nearly a percent 21 545 is what we have on the index
00:28:55 the breath also looking quite weak but agam is standing by with all the fno action agam
00:29:00 corollary to what we saw yesterday afternoon the market's actually doing quite badly
00:29:04 a little nervous ahead of the big event on thursday uh yeah that certainly seems to be the
00:29:08 case a lot of uh well positions being taken off but you know as far as the benchmarks go a little
00:29:15 bit of weakness coming in as well there let's talk about the nifty we do have one percent cut
00:29:20 and as i was when i was talking about some positions being taken off i meant that we
00:29:26 are looking at a decline in open interest of nearly seven percent in the index futures
00:29:29 as far as the bank nifty futures go well the picture is only slightly different we haven't
00:29:34 seen any change in open interest even as the spot takes a tumble of around quarter percent
00:29:39 uh the fin nifty of course will be in focus but i'll talk about that in just a bit let's talk
00:29:43 about the options market is coming down to the nifty and well today was a day where a lot of
00:29:48 traders took took it as a day where they could in fact go ahead and write the 21 700 calls as
00:29:55 well as puts let's move on and talk about the overall positions and well this doesn't really
00:30:01 change we still have uh 22 000 as the one a call as the one of the max oi and that should provide
00:30:07 some amount of well resistance on the higher end on the lower end we continue to keep an eye on 21
00:30:12 500 put where we have the max oi it was a fin nifty expiry it does seem like we are going to
00:30:17 the see the expiry somewhere around the 20 300 mark possibly a little lower than that it will
00:30:25 depend on the next 15 20 odd minutes but we haven't really seen too much traction otherwise
00:30:30 it's been a fairly quiet day for the fin nifty specifically after the kind of early weakness
00:30:36 that we saw on account of the declines in with the bajaj fin twins in terms of stocks speaking of
00:30:43 bajaj fin serve and bajaj finance well shorts building in there along with emphasis and
00:30:48 chumble fertilizers coromandel and concourse seeing fresh longs in terms of stocks we're seeing
00:30:53 unwinding well we saw short covering and ramco cement in singene international dr ready mcx and
00:30:58 colgate on the other hand looking at longs and winding it's been a fairly mixed day of trade
00:31:02 when it comes to the broader markets and when it comes to the benchmarks relatively quiet but with
00:31:08 a negative bias right thanks so much for that agam we let you go but bajaj finances the stock on the
00:31:16 nifty 50 which is in focus largely on the back of the loan loss that has come through on its pnl
00:31:24 the net interest income largely grew in line with what the street was anticipating 29 growth year
00:31:30 over year over there but when you're looking at what has impacted the profit and loss or rather
00:31:37 the profit after tax it's the loan loss provisions and within that loan loss provisions the commentary
00:31:42 seems to be that rural b2c is where the pressure continues to be they've calibrated growth there
00:31:49 but they're fairly confident that urban b2c which was also under some amount of pressure
00:31:53 is only a temporary uh is only temporarily impacted and there will be a bit of calibration
00:32:00 on growth there but nothing major urban b2c will continue to do very well is what the commentary
00:32:06 that's come through let's quickly go to both of our guests to try and understand how they are
00:32:12 watching bajaj finance and what they make of the numbers let me first go to our fundamental expert
00:32:19 for the day dharmesh dharmesh tell us what's your sense with regard to bajaj finances numbers do you
00:32:26 think that a five percent cut now that we're seeing on bajaj finance is it warranted
00:32:30 this is what happens when you enjoy you know very premium valuation multiple
00:32:37 and you are highly owned by everybody so in such a market scenario when people try to take some
00:32:43 profits off the table so these are the stocks where you have met the maximum amount of profit
00:32:47 comes in for some profit taking i think that is what is happening with this company
00:32:51 nothing wrong with the numbers i mean one two line item can always may not meet the expectation
00:32:59 which is out there and for bajaj finance the standards were always high and the bars were
00:33:03 always being raised higher only so here there has been a miss rural india bfc not only bajaj plus
00:33:09 even if you look at fmcg companies they have been reporting the numbers which again
00:33:14 size the same region of rural weakness in rural india so that was the which was expected as well
00:33:19 once it is printed in black and white some reaction is there i think this is not going to
00:33:24 stop here this five percent cut can extend to say seven to ten percent but then it will again become
00:33:29 a good buying opportunity so fundamentally i totally you know go away the management and give
00:33:34 them a benefit of doubt in this special circumstances that things will eventually fall in
00:33:39 the right place and things will start picking up as far as the collection in rural india is concerned
00:33:45 and few of the nbfcs which we have spoken to particularly in the vehicle finance business
00:33:51 they also cited the same problem which is emerging off it right uh let me switch over to nagraj
00:33:59 nagraj your views with regard to bajaj finance because from a fundamental standpoint it seems
00:34:03 dharmesh uh you know seems to be more concerned about the way valuations have moved in bajaj
00:34:09 finance and seems to be highlighting that piece but on charts how does it look now
00:34:14 uh yes jaharsh chartically this stock is not looking positive last few weeks it has been a
00:34:22 constant downtrend lower top lower bottom on the daily chart indicates the stock is facing a selling
00:34:28 pressure from the higher levels recently it made an attempt of gaining above the 200 day em at
00:34:35 7200 levels today slipped into a sharp decline the more weakness is likely for the near term i'm
00:34:41 expecting the next lower support of around 6600 for the stock price in the next one week yeah right
00:34:50 well gentlemen stay with us kpit also is a stock in focus if you can pull that up and see what the
00:34:58 stock is getting up to the last time i checked there was a pretty big gain on it and it continues
00:35:03 to be trading almost to the day's high point nearly four percent higher on kpit well the stock
00:35:09 has posted a solid set of earnings in fact the profits are up 55 they've declared an interim
00:35:15 riveting stock like i said was up sharply and continues to trade with some gains even now
00:35:20 tushar is standing by with more on that tushar it's been a pretty solid quarter for kpit
00:35:27 so kpit again sort of an outlier in the it pack revenue was up 4.82 percent quarter on quarter
00:35:35 margins were up about 60 basis points to about 16.59 net profit is up nearly 11 percent at 156
00:35:41 crore so what we have to remember that the company has in a way maintained its guidance at 37 percent
00:35:48 for the full year ending march 31st up from 30 to 30 to 30 to 32 percent the abetta margin as
00:35:55 what the company declared was at 20.6 percent in q3 that is up again 60 basis points sequentially
00:36:02 and in line with its expectations for the full year so essentially the company is very bullish
00:36:06 on its growth prospects for a year in which most of the it pack has declined other key highlights
00:36:12 revenues are 4.3 percent in constant currency terms a bit more evita margins 20.6 percent up
00:36:17 deal wins stood at 189 million dollars which is and within a with a healthy pipeline so there is
00:36:24 no pain there as what kpit is seeing about 600 freshers were hired again very contrary to what
00:36:31 the it pack has done there has been actually a net headcount decline at it services companies
00:36:38 overall the headcount has risen to about 12 700 employees net cash balance is at about 829 crore
00:36:44 which is which is up 310 crore we mentioned this because the company has declared an interim
00:36:49 dividend of rupees 2.1 in terms of valuation the company is still trading it at about 75 to 80 times
00:36:57 its price to earnings multiple still a pricey stock though rest of the er and the companies
00:37:04 where the space where kpit functions are catching up specifically tata technologies given its bumper
00:37:09 listing that happened you're right in fact valuations may be a little stretch the stock
00:37:14 made an intraday high of 1485 it's off the day's high point but the numbers like the shower said
00:37:20 are actually spectacular at a quarter like this and most of its counterparts haven't done too well
00:37:26 this one has seen margin expansion they've seen auto wins they've got a healthy pipeline
00:37:31 announced a dividend all in all it's looking good for kpid tech on the charts nagraj how do you feel
00:37:38 about kpid tech it made an intraday high of 1485 from the day's low point of 1365 now around 1410
00:37:46 1415 how would you trade kpit yes i mean are showing some interesting pattern recently few
00:37:54 days back it has made an attempt of a downside breakout of the larger rain movement and and
00:38:00 today's last two sessions volatility and the upside bounce in today's session is showing
00:38:05 some interesting pattern and technically we believe that whenever such pattern happens and
00:38:10 we're likely to see the stock prices moving up i'm expecting this upside momentum to continue
00:38:16 and the next word restaurants will be watched for this talk is around 15 16.
00:38:20 Dhanesh what did you make of kpit's earnings we can argue that well the quarter has been
00:38:26 actually pretty good for kpit they've even announced an interim dividend cash on the books
00:38:32 you know order pipeline looks quite healthy they've had some pretty good order wins margins
00:38:37 have improved operation efficiency is looking good but it is expensive keeping that in mind
00:38:44 would you go and go out and buy kpit and if yes at what level would you see that risk reward in
00:38:50 favor of kpit yes i mean i mean the numbers were excellent set of numbers and kpit technology
00:38:57 should not be you know looked at in light with the other it firms because it's a specialized
00:39:03 technology firm which is focused on mobility the business and there the next generation mobility
00:39:09 which is all about technological upgrades driven by ai modules that is where kpit functions and
00:39:14 this is a division which is not only applicable in ics but also in ebs in a large way so the
00:39:20 company has the got the timing right because they were into this segment since the inception and
00:39:25 they have been way ahead of other indian companies who have now started i mean auto
00:39:30 insurance companies who has now started falling into the auto technological part of the business
00:39:36 so that is the reason why we have seen such a good set of numbers from kpit and i think this number
00:39:41 flow will likely continue going ahead in the future because more and more i mean even the
00:39:46 lower end of the vacancy you see with features which is in line with today's technology so
00:39:52 that is where the company stands today valuation looks a bit stretched but even the type of earnings
00:39:58 rose 50 plus the company is giving it's likely to be there for next two to three years so it
00:40:04 will continue to enjoy a premium valuation multiple the recommendation would be if you are
00:40:08 have not having it in the portfolio you can buy at current levels if you are having it in the
00:40:12 portfolio keep on holding them i see at least 20 to 25 percent kind of an upside for one year time
00:40:19 frame in this counter right that's the view coming on kpit we'll take a quick break we've got another
00:40:26 16 17 minutes to go as we wrap up today's trade we'll take we'll come back but stay
00:40:31 tuned for more action and of course the top buy today sell tomorrow picks from our guest
00:40:48 you
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00:42:59 welcome back you're watching india market close here on netv profit you know we will have both
00:43:04 our guests but i'm going to try to first go to dharmesh uh you know dharmesh we've seen markets
00:43:09 do fairly well fairly well in december we've done decently well in january as well at this point i
00:43:17 want to try and understand from you what your views would be with regard to any specific sector that
00:43:22 that is on your watch list with regard to valuations at this point of time given the fact
00:43:27 that and given the reality of the rally that we've seen over the last couple of months
00:43:32 yeah i mean if you look at the market for last eight years each calendar year has been a positive
00:43:39 year for market that includes 2020 so this was never seen before i mean as far as indian market
00:43:45 context is concerned valuation wise at current juncture if you look at it the value appears to
00:43:50 be in our climate sector backing space so that is one space where you can safely call it where
00:43:56 the valuations are near mean levels so just in between mean and one standard deviation level it
00:44:01 is not suited up through the roof say for example railway stops or infrastructure even for psu banks
00:44:09 they have done up quite a lot so those are the pockets where the concern is there and in private
00:44:14 sector banking space i think icsa i bank came with a brilliant set of numbers indecent bank numbers
00:44:19 was uh very good kotak was also in line i mean protect bank was also in line with uh the number
00:44:25 so these three pegs if one holds and buy for say this calendar year that these the returns would be
00:44:33 pretty fair compared to if you are stuck with say an investor or infrastructure
00:44:39 right nagraj as we are wrapping up trade markets are at the day's low point banks are seeing selling
00:44:48 in fact fin nifty is under pressure on back of those bajaj twins but psu banks as well they
00:44:54 rallied sharply yesterday i think some profits being taken off the table uh in terms of trades
00:45:01 any sort of buy today sell tomorrow sell today buy tomorrow strategies for our viewers
00:45:06 yeah today though market has declined sharply from the high levels towards the close and
00:45:13 if you look at the broader market in this like mid-cap and smoke up they are intact
00:45:17 they are in uptrend there's no kind of any reversal pattern unfolding in those segments
00:45:23 particularly there are some sectors of metals you can take up psu banking are outperforming though
00:45:29 they have declined pulled off the trend from the higher levels i am in a view that in a metal space
00:45:36 there is a possibility of some more upside uh and even in psu banks as well in the metal metal front
00:45:43 in that is the one it has declined from the higher levels though and i'm expecting this buying could
00:45:49 emerge from the uh lows the overall chart pattern of the indelco is looking uh positive and i'm
00:45:55 expecting uh this to show some uh reversal on the upper side so uh i'm expecting this to be a good
00:46:03 pick for the longs in the next few sessions and as well as the pnb the chartically pnb has been in a
00:46:09 strong uptrend higher tops and higher bottoms it has been taking support of 10 and 20 day ems
00:46:14 continuously moving up though placed at the higher levels uh pulled off from the highs and
00:46:20 the still overall chart pattern is looking positive as for the smaller and larger term
00:46:24 this stock is likely to move further there may be some consolidation or a small uh dip but overall
00:46:30 chart pattern remains intact for the start right well the markets are the day's low point and that
00:46:37 looks a little uncons a little unsettling one percent off on the nifty uh threatening 21 500
00:46:44 so we are 21 516 as we see it on the index one stock that's been quite a gainer in today's trade
00:46:50 has been z we believe the nclt has agreed to hear madman film's plea on the z matter in relation to
00:46:57 the sony merger on back of that news the stock could be seeing again this morning holding on to
00:47:03 its gains with a six percent rally that we've seen uh well uh that may should try have you been
00:47:08 tracking z i mean it'd be hard not to uh what do you feel about z how would you approach the stock
00:47:14 do you think it's a good value buy and you could potentially see the stock returning back to its
00:47:19 previous glory once this saga is behind them i hope i could uh samina but it's a total avoid for
00:47:30 me and we have we do track this company but there's no recommendation on the stock
00:47:36 i don't know nagraj you trade this one you have a view on z at all
00:47:42 no we don't play and we don't give any recognition on this but on chartically it does damage the whole
00:47:48 chart pattern is damaged after a sharp fall and technically we believe that whenever the stock
00:47:53 declines sharply beyond certain limit and it tends to go for some pullback rally this is what exactly
00:47:58 happening a maximum upside is could be around 180 185 on this which is the next set of lessons
00:48:04 could come in so i'm not that optimistic in this talk at this point all right thanks so much for
00:48:14 that but let me switch focus drl expected to release third quarter numbers uh monal is standing
00:48:19 by uh what's the key monitorable as well as what's the expectation monal
00:48:24 uh let me let me go check yeah hi yeah go ahead monal
00:48:36 well uh dr ready's uh the expectation is that pat will be up six percent at around 1300 odd
00:48:46 crore rupees and revenue is expected to be up at around three percent ebita up around two percent
00:48:54 and a bit of margins are expected to be slightly softer than the same quarter last year at 28.4
00:48:59 versus a 28.7 percent now what are the key monitorables for the stock um one is us revenue
00:49:05 growth so the company had said that the base business is seeing a price erosion stabilization
00:49:11 so we need to see whether the same trend is at par this quarter uh also what is the uh what is
00:49:19 the performance on the india front whether the margin guidance is maintained at 25 percent
00:49:25 and what's the update on the first biosimilar that dr eddies has planned to launch which is
00:49:31 ritu zimab the pre-approval inspection for the same had taken place and the bachupalli facility
00:49:36 from which it is uh supposed to be filed has received nine observations so any update on that
00:49:41 front would help uh also what is the kind of product line to launch uh the pipeline so they've
00:49:47 said that uh you know analysts have been a sort of vary in terms of investing in dr eddies only
00:49:53 because the company does not have a strong launch pipeline in the us beyond two to three years that's
00:49:59 beyond rev limit so any announcement on that front could be a positive you've got dr ready's
00:50:06 uh in terms of earnings tomorrow you've also got maruti so two big numbers is what the street will
00:50:11 be expecting talking about maruti in fact the stock if i can just pull that up is doing a little
00:50:18 is a little weak right now but didn't start of the day in this way tata motors if i can get that
00:50:24 one up on the screen as well was trading very sharply with sharp gains in early trade this
00:50:29 morning and so omcs nagraj any trades on a tata motors bpcl hpcl some of these counters
00:50:38 opened the day with very solid uh sort of gains yes uh tata motors bpcl uh both have started well
00:50:48 start of the day and i think the chart has still is still positive on the chartically i'm not
00:50:55 expecting any bigger negative though market has declined by 200 points uh nifty especially but
00:51:02 bpcl and tata motors are still maintaining with the healthy gains though it was some of the gains
00:51:08 from the higher levels i'm not expecting any a bigger negative the uptrend is likely to continue
00:51:13 for the short term in both the stocks right um thanks for that nagraj you know i also want to
00:51:20 try and mark out ntpc there's been news coming through that they have an order to build six as
00:51:29 16.8 gigawatt thermal plants in the future they are set to expand coal mining capacity to 50 mtpa
00:51:37 in three years this is all of this is coming through agencies they're on track to have 15
00:51:42 gigawatts of renewable capacity by march of 2026 and the fy25 capex estimated is at 22 700 crore
00:51:51 so just want to try and break this down a little more you know when i'm looking at ntpc
00:51:57 over the one year and if we can have that the kind of return it's given is 87 percent that's
00:52:03 the return ntpc has given now some of these have come of very low basis they are psu stocks but
00:52:10 they've really rallied uh dharmesh if i can come to you to try and give us more perspective on
00:52:16 something like an ntpc as well as any other psus on your radar because we've seen a very solid rally
00:52:24 do you still see some amount of value in one ntpc and if not any other psus
00:52:31 see when we speak about ntpc we are basically talking about the power sector the type of growth
00:52:38 which the government of india has in the source for the power sector play and ntpc being the
00:52:43 heavy lifter of the power generation played india is likely to do well i think most of the thermal
00:52:50 power projects which will be awarded tpc would be getting them and these new schools which you just
00:52:58 illustrated i mean uh tabled through the agencies are likely to materialize in favor of ntpc because
00:53:05 they have the bandwidth to do this as far as valuation is concerned i think still there's a
00:53:10 scope for i mean 30 40 percent kind of a return is still there on the scopes because as the numbers
00:53:16 keeps on materializing you will get the analyst relating and the future projections will be more
00:53:21 viable in nature so that is where the stop is as of now but i do think it's a good portfolio
00:53:31 by even at current levels being the prime leader in the power sector play apart from that i mean
00:53:37 psus if we are saying if you are again i should give a caveat out here if you are a period of
00:53:43 three to five years kind of origin rbnl is still very good rbnl nmdc these are the companies you
00:53:50 which you should still be having it in your portfolio right that's the word coming in
00:53:56 two stocks nagraj show one on the gaining side and around on the losing side reliance industries
00:54:01 made a very smart move in trade yesterday one of its biggest gains uh in the recent past made a
00:54:09 record high today of course you're seeing profit taking three percent off on the counter how would
00:54:14 you approach reliance industries and i also want to throw an htfc bank because this was pretty much
00:54:19 single-handedly responsible for the markets correcting in last week's trade it seems like
00:54:24 it's finding its feet around levels of 1400 1450 both those counters what is your view
00:54:31 uh to start with hgfc bank due to compliance issue i won't be able to comment on hgfc bank
00:54:39 but secondly reliance as you mentioned on chartically we have seen some higher tops
00:54:44 and higher bottoms recently over the last one one two two months it has moved up us very well
00:54:49 and whenever we are seeing the downward correction setting in for this reliance from the higher level
00:54:54 the stock has made a higher bottom and convincingly moved up i think the yesterday's move was the
00:55:00 phenomenal it has made an attempt of upside breakout of the strong uh larger range moment
00:55:06 and today's decline i'm expecting to be a process of a higher bottom formation for this stock and
00:55:12 2750 2720 is going to be the good support for the reliance and this could be a base for the
00:55:20 near term all right thanks for that nagraj dharmesh quick thoughts anything on reliance
00:55:27 uh what are your views plenty of value unlocking still there in the pipeline uh how do you view
00:55:34 this one so definitely i mean just a quick view based on sotp based valuation 2100 is the target
00:55:42 price we are looking at reliance and our own sense is that by fy26 the net profit would be
00:55:48 one lakh five thousand not close and this does not include the new energy business which the
00:55:52 alliance is talking about is based on the four existing business verticals which the company's
00:55:57 having in the portfolio right thank you gentlemen thanks for joining us this afternoon on india
00:56:03 market close it's been a bit of a rough day in terms of trade the markets which started the day
00:56:09 at 21 700 we did get a gap up opening but that very quickly in the in late trade got sold into
00:56:16 the nifty going home with a cut of 200 points nearly a percent off so we've gone all the way
00:56:22 down to 221 530 remember it's all lies in the big event traders at this stage ready to go in
00:56:29 with big positions ahead of the big interim budget that is expected on thursday well the sensex as
00:56:35 well saw a cut of one percent 800 points given up on the sensex all of this comes in after the
00:56:40 markets have made a very smart move in yesterday's day of trade well the breadth of the market also
00:56:45 deteriorated towards the last hour of trade we did see some selling coming in bang nifty or fin
00:56:50 nifty in particular saw big big sell-off in today's trade both your twins from the bajaj that's that's
00:56:57 the fin nifty down about seven tenths of a percent if we can quickly pull up the heat map to get a
00:57:02 sense of what moved the markets like we said there were a whole bunch of losers in today's day of
00:57:06 trade the bajaj twins led the losses but judge fin down over five percent but judge fins are also
00:57:12 trading or closing with a gain loss of about two and a half percent cement and um ultra tech and
00:57:17 titan both saw a cut rl after an eight percent seven percent up move yesterday saw a cut of
00:57:22 about three odd percent in trade along with that on the winning side you've got sorry in the losing
00:57:26 side you've also got maruti's looking subdued ahead of its numbers uh which will which it will
00:57:31 report in tomorrow's day of trade hdfc as well seeing some weakness on the gaining side tata
00:57:36 motors had a very solid day at some point the date was up five percent it took over the market cap of
00:57:40 maruti but finally going home with a gain of about three odd percent omcs have had a field day bpcl
00:57:46 hpcl are all up and about two percent gains on bpcl ayesha did okay adani enterprise building
00:57:51 on gains from yesterday up about one odd percent and some small gains coming in for tech players
00:57:57 all in all it was a weekday of trade in the late hour of traders when the market sold off
00:58:02 the nifty finally going home with a cut of over 150 points to 21 535 is where we close the session
00:58:09 at harsh well yes absolutely uh you know that's that's a quick round up on how the markets fared
00:58:17 let's quickly look at where the broader markets have closed we are seeing the nifty mid-cap
00:58:22 roughly half a percent odd lower we're also but the nifty small cap is up around a quarter of a
00:58:27 percent so that's uh one positive pocket uh the breadth of the market as samina did mention was
00:58:33 fairly weak in terms of the nifty small cap itself because that one closed higher i'll quickly have
00:58:39 some names for you irb up 13 today uh power industry is up around six percent angel one
00:58:48 up roughly five and a half odd percent that one is on a one-way tear uh data patterns also seeing
00:58:53 good gains of around five percent odd among the losers there was jubilant in gravia kei and
00:59:00 chambal fertilizers all three of which uh were down by three and a half percent plus within the
00:59:05 mid-caps as well uh good buying scene in z sin gene hindustan petro kpit tech kpit tech came out
00:59:12 with numbers all of which were up three and a half percent plus among the losers you had the likes of
00:59:16 a coromandel uh well uh that stock also declared earnings uh badly beaten in terms of margins seven
00:59:22 and a half percent lower for that one you had the likes of persistent also down three odd percent
00:59:28 in trade uh so that's where we're at uh you know at close today uh but that's all we have for you
00:59:35 of course the countdown to budget begins and dtv profit brings you the top corporate voices
00:59:41 and what they expect of the budget here's what dhaval ajmera who's the director at ajmera
00:59:48 reality expects from the interim budget uh we will leave it at that on uh this edition of india
00:59:55 market close uh we will see you tomorrow but have a look at what dhaval ajmera had to say
01:00:00 affordable housing is not really getting that kind of boost in specifically tier one tier two cities
01:00:11 uh and it is the need of the hour so honestly i think it if you know such changes in definition
01:00:17 coming in and pmy to coming with better and ease more ease of doing business i think it will really
01:00:23 be a big booster to the market