- Invasset's portfolio building principles
- Distinction between old & new economy run
- Play on railway space
Sajeet Manghat in conversation with Anirudh Garg on 'The Portfolio Manager'. #NDTVProfitLive
- Distinction between old & new economy run
- Play on railway space
Sajeet Manghat in conversation with Anirudh Garg on 'The Portfolio Manager'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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00:42 Welcome back.
00:49 You're watching The Portfolio Manager.
00:51 And with me is Anurag Garg, who is the partner and fund
00:53 manager at Inverestest PMS.
00:57 I want to talk to you about some of the other portfolios
01:03 or the sectors allocation that you have, specialty chemicals.
01:06 This was a darling of the market a couple of quarters back.
01:12 And now we're seeing some kind of pressure happening.
01:15 Fundamentally, there is a pressure in that sector.
01:18 Yeah, OK.
01:19 So specialty chemicals is a very interesting space.
01:22 Speciality chemicals, I'll tell you
01:24 about how it happens in the market,
01:26 how exuberances are created.
01:27 At the very top, I was amazed when specialty chemicals was
01:32 given a status of FMCGs.
01:34 They were being compared to FMCGs
01:36 when the multiple got so high.
01:38 So what is a chemical company?
01:40 A chemical-- maybe less in terms of specialty chemicals,
01:43 but broadly, what is a chemical company?
01:45 A chemical company is a commodity.
01:48 When you're buying a chemical, it
01:49 does not matter what company or what brand you're going to buy.
01:52 You're not going to consume it, or it's not
01:53 your lifestyle product.
01:54 So it was very, very clear that all the capacity additions
01:59 that were happening since 2013.
02:01 2013 is when China said that, OK, we are not developed,
02:04 and we do not want to produce chemicals and pollute
02:07 our environment.
02:08 India filled up that vacuum.
02:09 The checks were not that great here.
02:12 And the chemical companies built a lot of capacity,
02:14 especially in the last three, four years.
02:16 And the 2020 run, the run post 2020,
02:19 made sure that they reached a valuation where
02:21 they were compared to FMCGs.
02:22 So they picked up something from the very bottom,
02:25 made it exuberant, and yes.
02:27 Now, everybody was interested in these chemical companies,
02:30 which were now bound to take a rest.
02:32 So we believe that both time and price corrections were due,
02:35 evidently due in a specialty chemical company.
02:38 And another couple of years, the price corrections will happen.
02:43 The weak hands would exit.
02:45 There'll be price correction in the product as well.
02:47 And whosoever is the fittest would survive,
02:50 and then the run would resume again.
02:53 But yes, for the next couple of years,
02:54 we are not very bullish on the specialty chemicals
02:57 on the chemical side.
02:58 Until and unless they are producing something
03:00 which is very, very different or some extraordinary innovation
03:03 happens.
03:04 Have this group of companies underperformed the portfolio?
03:09 We have not been holding--
03:11 I think, Bharat, one, we have not
03:14 been holding chemicals as such in our portfolio.
03:18 Give me a sense of what Defense is going to do.
03:20 Because it has also had a good play in the last 12 to 18
03:24 months.
03:25 We've seen most of the companies doubling in valuation.
03:29 You have a couple of them in your portfolio,
03:32 in the shipyard space especially.
03:35 How do you see the Defense play playing out?
03:38 And you're more inclined towards the public sector
03:41 as compared to a private sector where the opportunities could
03:43 be there.
03:45 OK.
03:45 So Defense, when we look at Defense,
03:48 it's a very big story that is unfolding for India.
03:51 See, firstly, look at the demography of India.
03:53 We are surrounded by very hostile neighbors.
03:56 Secondly, we have been importing Defense from the very long.
04:00 I think since independence, we have
04:02 been dependent on foreign people for Defense only,
04:04 be it Russia, the US, Germany, France recently.
04:09 But when a country is surrounded by so many hostile neighbors
04:13 and catering to more than 150 crore people,
04:17 it's like how we joke at investors
04:20 that we can order one biryani from outside occasionally,
04:24 but the dal roti has to be from inside the house.
04:27 So the Defense had to be there, had
04:28 to be the decision that has to come,
04:30 where you had to make sure that your Defense production is done
04:33 indigenously at your home.
04:35 That is what is happening in India right now.
04:38 This Modi government is not planning
04:40 for the next two, three years.
04:42 It's planning for the next 15 years.
04:44 And when you are planning for the next 15 years,
04:46 a very important vertical like Defense has to be in-house.
04:49 So we believe that what has happened
04:52 in Defense and railways is a very, very significant shift.
04:56 Why these stocks are looking expensive to us
04:59 and why we talk about them a lot,
05:01 that they've become expensive.
05:03 A lot of my investors, they say, as you
05:05 ask, that they have crossed the doubled in value
05:07 or tripled in value, become four times in value.
05:10 The point is that PE expansion phase
05:12 that any sector which was neglected
05:13 goes through, that initial PE expansion phase
05:16 is something that makes everybody uncomfortable because
05:20 of the initial rise.
05:21 But look at all those 10 years where they had not performed
05:24 at all and others were.
05:25 And now they have tailwinds with them and their thing was due.
05:29 And the markets, what they did, they just
05:32 in the last couple of years, priced in what was due
05:36 to happen in the last 10 years.
05:37 So yes, I think the defenses are altogether a different sector
05:42 under the current regime.
05:43 And all these PSU technology transfers
05:48 that happen in defense are more comfortable
05:50 when it comes to PSUs.
05:52 So yes, PSU defense companies are looking very good to us.
05:57 It'll be very soon when they'll become the darlings of the,
06:02 I would say, the stock market and not considered those--
06:07 they started there when we bought
06:08 Mazda, DOCS, and GRSC and all, they
06:11 were considered small caps.
06:12 Now they are considered-- then they became mid-caps.
06:15 And now they're transitioning from mid to large caps.
06:18 Yeah, they are very solid companies
06:20 and poised for a great growth in the next 20 years.
06:23 How do you look at--
06:25 How do you look at electrical utilities?
06:28 And I don't see renewables as part of your portfolio.
06:31 So is it part of electrical utilities that you have?
06:34 No, so renewables, we are holding renewables.
06:39 We have something like SJB.
06:42 And I think we bought it right away.
06:44 So first of all, I would like to mention here, Sajith,
06:47 is that last 1 and 1/2 year almost, so November 2022,
06:52 that is one year back, November 2022,
06:54 that was the time when we did any type of churn
06:57 in our portfolio.
06:57 We have been holding the same stock since then.
07:00 And all this returns that you see
07:02 are on a particular set of stocks.
07:03 No churning has happened in between.
07:06 So maybe 2%, 3% of churning has happened, not much.
07:09 So yes, after that, when you're talking about renewables,
07:14 yeah, we are invested in companies like Inox Wind.
07:18 And a disclaimer here, that any companies
07:20 that we talk about, any sectors that we talk about,
07:22 we have vested interest.
07:23 Please consult your financial advisors
07:24 before taking any decisions and are not a recommendation
07:27 to buy and sell.
07:28 Yeah, so we have Inox Wind.
07:30 We have Soslon.
07:32 We have SJBN, which has been a great compounder for us.
07:35 Yeah, so we are very bullish and gung-ho on the renewable sector.
07:38 Interestingly, you have airlines as well in the sector.
07:45 And there are a very limited number of airlines,
07:47 which is there.
07:47 So I assume that you have the leader of the sector, which
07:50 is part of your portfolio.
07:53 So I'll tell you, it's not airlines.
07:55 Sometimes what happens is that when you share a portfolio
07:57 fact sheet or a thing like that, the sector
08:00 are sometimes by the custodians or the fund manager,
08:04 these accounting, like for us is Nuvama.
08:08 We hold HAL in our portfolio.
08:10 We are very bullish on HAL.
08:12 Why isn't part of defense and it's part of airline?
08:16 You know the old classifications that the fund management
08:21 accounting people do, sometimes they've not changed.
08:23 So that's why.
08:24 OK, so again, you have 1% of your portfolio or assets in HAL.
08:31 And I assume that it's, again, the tailwind, which
08:33 is pushing that stock, which is there, right?
08:37 Absolutely, absolutely.
08:39 I think that is the strongest bet anybody
08:41 who wants to have an exposure in the--
08:44 or wants to study the defense sector
08:46 should surely study HAL.
08:49 You said that you haven't done much of a churn of your portfolio
08:52 in the last two years.
08:55 Where is the new money being invested?
08:58 Are you reinvesting into the existing companies that
09:00 are there in your portfolio?
09:02 Or is it you are churning and you may be adding a company
09:06 or two every year?
09:09 OK, so what happens is that in an old economy run,
09:12 as I mentioned earlier, there are two type of themes,
09:15 if I take the liberty of saying so, that play out.
09:19 The one is an interest rate sensitive theme.
09:21 For an interest rate sensitive theme to play out,
09:24 you need to have the global growth in place
09:27 and the global inflation also under control.
09:29 Both these things were not there.
09:31 If you talk one, one and a half year back,
09:33 both these things are a problem.
09:35 The global growth owing to factors
09:36 like, say, the post-COVID problems that were there,
09:39 and then China not opening up, and then the Russia-Ukraine
09:43 war, and the US-China tensions that were there,
09:45 and the supply chain disruptions that were there,
09:48 the global growth was not that much present.
09:50 And then the US Fed said in 2021 that, OK,
09:54 there is an inflation problem.
09:56 So the interest rate sensitive, they went out of the bag.
09:58 So when we invested in November 2022,
10:00 it was very, very clear to us that, OK,
10:02 CAPEX is the only theme right now.
10:04 You just need to find the leaders in what
10:06 CAPEX and related ancillaries and related things can do.
10:10 Now, with the passage of time, what has happened
10:12 is that out of those two legs, two weak legs, the lower one,
10:16 which was the inflation, is now seeming to come under control,
10:19 as the US Fed has now acknowledged that, OK,
10:22 the inflation is not a problem anymore.
10:24 Though we would like to watch it,
10:26 but not a problem anymore.
10:27 We believe that once the US Fed has said that,
10:30 historically, over the past 30, 40 years,
10:32 from what we have analyzed, is that when
10:34 it says that there is no problem anymore, inflation is over then.
10:39 Yeah, the rate cut can come in March or it can come in June.
10:43 That is the event that is supposed to fold out.
10:46 But otherwise, everything seems under control.
10:50 So companies which are focused on Indian demand, not
10:53 global demand, but affected by inflation,
10:56 those companies join the thing.
10:58 So if somebody comes to us today,
11:01 we would add sectors like real estate and autos going forward.
11:05 And what makes you bullish on real estate?
11:10 See, in Indian real estate, the demand is there.
11:13 You see, any project DLF launches or Soba has launched
11:17 or these other developers have launched,
11:20 they are sold out within a day.
11:21 And then when the inflation seems to come under control,
11:26 then you are expecting a fall in interest rates.
11:29 So yes, this would give an additional boost
11:32 to the real estate sector.
11:34 And since also, on the other hand,
11:36 since the global growth is not there,
11:38 so all those metal companies which
11:41 particularly are for the input cost to real estate,
11:44 they are also not moving significantly higher.
11:47 They are very much under control.
11:49 And now you have the demand, you have the profit margins,
11:52 and the customer can come in because of lower interest rates.
11:56 So real estate seems good to us.
11:58 Yes.
11:58 And do you see a good run happening in real estate?
12:03 Do you have a sizable exposure to the sector?
12:06 Yes, in the current portfolios that we're doing
12:10 and the next shift that is due in our portfolio, yes,
12:12 we are bullish on the real estate sector.
12:13 And what kind of run up do you see in the real estate sector?
12:16 I mean, what should be the exposure like in the sector
12:21 from our point of view of either looking
12:23 at commercial real estate or looking affordable
12:26 or you're looking at luxury in that space?
12:31 So we are most bullish on the luxury real estate part.
12:36 You know, that premiumization concept
12:40 or the premiumization and lifestyle
12:41 that has happened post-COVID.
12:43 Everybody of us knows that the luxury items are sold out first.
12:47 You go in a theater, the recliners,
12:48 they are sold out first in the normal seats.
12:50 Yeah.
12:51 So that premiumization that is happening,
12:53 it's not only in real estate, it's
12:54 occurring everywhere, be it alcohol, be it airlines,
12:58 or be it cars, or be it clothing, be it shoes,
13:03 everywhere, the lifestyle, everywhere
13:05 that premiumization thing is taking the forefront.
13:08 And that is happening in real estate as well.
13:11 And then after that, we are more bullish on commercial
13:15 because the commercial is also getting back.
13:17 We've been in talks with a lot of real estate developers
13:21 and all those real estate managing companies
13:24 that are out there.
13:25 Yeah.
13:26 The most bullish trend is currently
13:27 seen in the luxury part of the sector.
13:30 And you were asking about what returns we are expecting.
13:33 We are expecting above average returns.
13:35 So yeah.
13:37 Currently, the markets, they're moving
13:39 in a little bit of expensive zone.
13:41 But yeah, for the real estate sector,
13:43 we still believe that at least a 24% CAGR for the next three
13:48 years should come.
13:49 Anirudh, it was a pleasure talking to you today.
13:51 Thank you very much for joining us on "NATV Profit."
13:53 It was a pleasure, indeed.
13:54 Thank you so much.
13:56 You're watching the portfolio manager,
13:58 and that was Anirudh Garg, partner and fund manager
14:00 at Inwa Estate PMS.
14:03 Thank you for joining us on "NATV Profit."
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15:41 Pidilait is a stock in focus because relative to higher
15:44 estimates that were there as consensus,
15:47 the companies come out and on most line items,
15:49 beaten those as well.
15:51 Marginally at that, but beaten those numbers.
15:54 Mr. Bharatpuri joins in to talk about his sense of what
15:57 happened in the first nine months in Q3,
16:00 and what is 2024 holding store.
16:02 Mr. Puri, great having you.
16:03 Thanks for taking the time out.
16:04 I hope all is well.
16:06 All is well and always a pleasure
16:08 to be with you, Dheeraj.
16:09 The feeling is entirely mutual, sir.
16:11 Let's talk about the quarter because a lot of things
16:13 seem to have gone right on the revenue numbers,
16:16 almost in line with estimates or maybe slightly lower,
16:19 if you will.
16:20 Let's talk about the top line first
16:22 before I come to the standout part, which
16:24 is the operational metrics.
16:27 See, as far as this quarter is concerned,
16:29 and frankly, if you look at it, the story
16:31 is very consistent for the year.
16:33 We've been very clear that we would
16:36 like to slowly and steadily achieve
16:38 double-digit volume growth.
16:39 That's where we're now, where we've
16:42 reached underlying volume growth is
16:44 at a steady double-digit number.
16:48 The B2B business has also returned to growth.
16:50 This quarter, actually, it's grown faster
16:52 than the consumer and bazaar business because
16:54 of the return to business.
16:56 So overall, we've always maintained
16:57 we will invest in the core, make sure that core grows for us.
17:01 Growth categories and growth geographies
17:03 continue to drive growth, and we keep
17:05 introducing pioneer categories.
17:07 And all of that, if you look at just not the last three
17:09 months, but the last nine months,
17:11 we've been very consistent with that.
17:13 We're one of the few organizations
17:15 where over the last three to four years,
17:17 we've been consistently investing, for example,
17:19 in rural and semi-urban markets.
17:21 Our initiative, the Pedalite ki Duniya,
17:24 we now have 12,000 Pedalite ki Duniyas
17:27 in villages with a population of 5,000 to 10,000.
17:31 We've increased distribution points
17:33 just this quarter by another 30,000.
17:35 Our investment in both increasing our range,
17:38 educating consumers, and obviously,
17:41 increasing distribution touchpoints is, for us,
17:44 rural and semi-urban is growing one and a half times urban,
17:47 which is therefore leading to growth.
17:49 When we look at innovation, that's
17:51 been a strong driver of growth.
17:53 Last time when we spoke, Neeraj, in fact, more than a year back,
17:55 I told you we've been ready, during the COVID period,
17:58 with our innovation calendar for the next 12 months.
18:02 Now that has started rolling out.
18:04 Every division has rolled out new innovation.
18:06 That's been a strong contributor of growth,
18:09 all supported by two things.
18:10 One is a very strong digital infrastructure.
18:14 And the second is our supply chain.
18:17 We've opened nine factories this year, one more this quarter.
18:20 We now have over 70 facilities.
18:23 And we're clearly ready for the next phase of growth.
18:26 MR. VISH VISWANATH: OK.
18:26 And I'll talk about this, but just one quick question,
18:29 and I just want to get this sorted.
18:32 Is our assumption about our math around the difference
18:36 between volume growth and value growth correct,
18:39 that volume growth has outpaced value growth?
18:41 The last four quarters, value growth, single digits.
18:45 Now, is there a reason why this is happening?
18:48 Do you intend to change this?
18:49 Are you happy with the way the thing is right now?
18:52 MR. KANTON: No, it's a very simple reason.
18:54 We're reducing prices.
18:55 If you remember last year at this time,
18:57 we were under the weight of a very high raw material price.
19:01 Bam was at $2,000 a ton.
19:03 It's now returned to normalcy to $900 to $1,000.
19:06 And we are passing on benefits back to the consumer.
19:09 It's really, therefore, price reductions.
19:11 For us, the clear metric for success
19:14 is underlying profitable volume growth.
19:16 That's what we are focused on.
19:17 Raw material prices will go up and down,
19:19 and therefore, you will adjust price.
19:21 But as long as more volume is going
19:22 into the hands of the consumer, you're
19:24 either adding new consumers or existing consumers
19:27 are using more.
19:28 And to us, that's the clear metric
19:30 that if we can grow that in double digits,
19:33 we're adding 10% new consumers or existing consumers
19:36 doing more every year.
19:38 MR. VIKAS: Point well taken.
19:39 The other aspect is something that you
19:40 had alluded to in all the conversations around WAM prices
19:43 and what that could do to margins.
19:45 Some bit of that, or rather a significant bit of that,
19:48 has played out as well.
19:49 Would you reckon more is in store
19:51 or continuation is in store at these levels?
19:54 MR. KANTON: See, these days, Neeraj, you and me
19:56 know we live in uncertain times where geopolitics
20:00 has become this new feature.
20:01 So again, barring any black swan, unforeseen circumstances,
20:04 we do believe raw material prices will remain stable.
20:07 I can at least say that for the next three to four months.
20:09 Then we will see.
20:10 So we've always guided our margin range as 20% to 24%.
20:15 When raw material prices are benign and stable as they are
20:18 now, it will be at the higher end.
20:20 When they are volatile and a little more uncertain,
20:23 it will be at the lower end.
20:24 So we're in that range.
20:26 And as we take a step back, obviously our next step
20:29 is now to see how do we invest back further into growth
20:32 and keep pushing back into double-digit volume growth.
20:34 MR. VIKAS KHANNA: So here's my question.
20:36 I hear you talk about starting so many facilities,
20:38 manufacturing facilities, one more coming up, et cetera.
20:41 I'm guessing it's not that the capacity utilization levels are
20:46 sky high currently.
20:48 But you are falling into newer categories,
20:50 as we all know as well.
20:52 I'm trying to understand, as you think out for 2024 and 2025,
20:55 let's say the next 24 months, what's the utilization levels
21:01 that you anticipate?
21:01 And as a result of that, do you anticipate the need or the urge
21:07 to put more CAPEX into play for fueling future growth?
21:11 Or now the strategy would be to consolidate what you've put up
21:17 and be light on CAPEX for the next 24 to 36 months
21:20 as you see demand pick up?
21:22 MR. KAUSHIK PRABHAKAR: See, in our business, what we always do
21:25 is the moment we get close to 70% to 75% capacity utilization,
21:29 we start planning new facilities.
21:31 Because we always leave enough headroom for growth.
21:34 And obviously a new facility takes time to ramp up.
21:37 But as we speak, while our capacity utilization
21:42 is at a decent level, we are continuously
21:45 planning for growth.
21:45 So next year, again, you may not see nine factories,
21:48 but you will see newer facilities, which
21:50 are currently actually under planning
21:52 and under construction, come up.
21:53 So on a consistent basis, we estimate GDP growth.
21:56 Based on that, we estimate core categories, core growth,
21:59 and we identify pioneer categories, which
22:02 will become growth categories.
22:04 And we have a CAPEX program.
22:05 We continue to spend between 3% to 5% of our revenue on CAPEX.
22:13 So if you look at the last three years,
22:15 we would have spent over 1,500 crores just on new facilities.
22:20 And all of that is now leading for us
22:22 to be future ready, as well as ready
22:24 for the next phase of growth.
22:26 OK, you do anticipate the need to do future CAPEX based
22:29 on your estimates of GDP.
22:31 Corporate is a best example of--
22:33 and Tata Mad has established as you--
22:35 a best example of what could growth look like.
22:37 You're confident of growth for the next 24 to 36 months?
22:40 Absolutely, yes.
22:43 Both A, we are believers in the India growth story.
22:45 I think the India consumption story is still playing out.
22:49 We're also very fortunate to be well-positioned
22:51 in the right sectors.
22:52 If you see India's housing stock,
22:55 we still need to build massive amount of housing stock,
22:58 as far as India is concerned, across income groups.
23:01 Infrastructure, while it's being built,
23:04 we know it's a 10-year roadmap.
23:05 And therefore, there's a substantial amount
23:07 of infrastructure which leads to its own demand,
23:10 as far as our products is concerned.
23:12 And to all of this, if we do see the manufacturing 2.0,
23:17 or China plus 1, whatever it is called,
23:19 that's another driver for growth.
23:20 So we are making sure that we are
23:22 ready for that phase of growth.
23:23 This whole 2023 has been punctuated,
23:26 at least by conversation, around the K-shaped growth
23:30 yet, but even in the upper end of the K,
23:32 the upper crust or premiumization
23:34 being the buzzword.
23:37 I would love to understand from you,
23:38 whether for your categories or for consumption at large,
23:41 how do you see the next 12 to 18 months?
23:44 Could that still be the defining factor?
23:46 Or do you reckon the nature of consumption
23:50 will change while premiumization may do well?
23:52 Could rural, could non-premium products
23:55 make a bit of a comeback?
23:56 How do you see this space for your products
23:59 and for consumption in general?
24:01 See, for our products, we always follow what we
24:04 call a three India's approach.
24:06 There is a premium India, there is a middle India,
24:09 and there's an aspirant India.
24:11 Any organization that wants to be national
24:13 and wants to, again, be a leader has to have an offering
24:18 across all three areas.
24:20 Yes, definitely the premium area and the middle area
24:22 has been growing well for most organizations.
24:26 But as far as Pidilite is concerned,
24:28 actually for us, all three are growing at good rates.
24:31 And largely, as I told you, because a large part
24:34 of aspirant India falls into rural and small towns.
24:38 For us, the investment into these towns,
24:40 the investment into consumer education,
24:42 our category is still, unlike, say, a food product or a soap,
24:46 where you don't have to teach people how to eat, say,
24:50 a toffee or use a soap.
24:51 In our case, we have to teach them
24:53 how to put broken things together,
24:54 how to waterproof their home.
24:56 Therefore, we see a greater runway for growth
24:59 across all three sectors.
25:01 We don't see A and B growing much faster than C.
25:05 The premiumization trend is a definite trend.
25:07 We are seeing premium India emerge,
25:12 which was not there five or seven years ago.
25:14 There is a definite premium India.
25:16 Middle India still remains the largest part of India.
25:19 And aspirant India, if you have the patience
25:22 and you make the investments, we definitely see the returns.
25:24 Sorry, for not your products, but for consumption
25:26 in general, premium India grows faster, you think?
25:29 Or aspirant India makes a comeback?
25:32 I think over time, aspirant India has to make a comeback.
25:36 There is no doubt about it.
25:37 If India's growth, we have to step up from the seven,
25:39 seven and a half and maybe go to eight.
25:41 Then aspirant India has to play a larger role.
25:44 Got it.
25:44 Mr. Puri, always fantastic talking to you.
25:46 But I look forward to now, before the end
25:48 of the financial year, talking to you
25:51 from one of your facilities.
25:52 So we'll try and do that before March ends.
25:54 I hope we manage to find the time with you.
25:57 Thank you for taking the time out and speaking to us today.
26:00 Definitely.
26:00 Always a pleasure, Dinesh.
26:01 Thanks so much.
26:02 Thank you for your time.
26:03 And viewers, thanks for tuning in.
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