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00:00 Let's get some more analysis from Todd Belt, who's a professor and director of political management at George Washington University.
00:07 Professor Belt, welcome back to France 24. Thank you very much for joining us.
00:11 First question, can Nikki Haley pull an upset victory, do you think?
00:16 Well, thanks for having me on. It's great to be with you again.
00:19 Anything can happen. We know we have a septuagenarian who is running.
00:24 Donald Trump is not young, even though we've made a lot of Joe Biden's age, and he is facing all those court cases, which might give some people pause.
00:32 Nikki Haley's best way to defeat Donald Trump is to get over 40 percent in New Hampshire, which will give her some life.
00:41 That would actually signal to some of the contributors and voters that there's a sizable group that doesn't want Donald Trump to be the nominee.
00:49 And if she does that, then she needs to be able to gear up for South Carolina, which is a month away, and try to avoid Donald Trump beating her on her home turf.
00:59 How important is this primary, would you say, Professor?
01:04 Well, it's really important. And I mean, we can say that Iowa is extremely important, too.
01:09 I mean, if you look at it, we had one contest and now we're down to two candidates when, you know, last summer we had a dozen or so.
01:16 This is really important. New Hampshire is traditionally more important than Iowa because you get a greater sense of who is electable on a national scale.
01:25 Because as Frazier was talking earlier about the unsigned voters, the uncommitted voters being able to vote here, this gives you a better idea of who might win in the general election.
01:37 So if Nikki Haley can show that she is a clear alternative to Donald Trump and perhaps even make the argument that she's better positioned than Donald Trump to defeat Joe Biden, that could put some wind in her sails.
01:49 I mean, people would be quite surprised to hear that, you know, we've been talking on France 24 and lots of other news channels talking about Donald Trump's legal woes.
01:58 And yet none of that seems to be having any impact on him at all, at least not as far as Republican voters are concerned.
02:07 Not yet. You're exactly right. In the primaries, and I think that this is going to continue in the primaries, this only helps him make his case that the Biden campaign is out to get him.
02:20 And this is unjust and a witch hunt and all the different hyperbole that he uses to describe it.
02:26 But those aren't the people who vote in the general election, of course.
02:29 He's going to have to appeal to independents. And if he can't get them, if Nikki Haley can make the case that Donald Trump is going to max out with the voters that he has in the primaries and not be able to appeal to that middle section of the electorate.
02:45 And if people hear that message, then that might give her some resonance with the voters.
02:50 Yeah, I mean, do you think a Trump criminal conviction, I mean, supposing that happened, let's imagine a scenario that he does face prosecution.
03:01 Would that mean that if Nikki Haley is the only other candidate left in the race at this stage, she becomes the default GOP candidate, at least before the naming ceremony later in the year?
03:13 Right. The naming ceremony, which we call the convention, where the delegates who they're actually competing for right now go to go to to cast their vote.
03:22 This is the real big question.
03:25 Will the conviction actually pry away some of those Republican voters who align themselves with Donald Trump, see themselves as defending Donald Trump?
03:35 He's gone up in the polls each time he's had an indictment.
03:38 But a conviction could be different. And the reason it could be different is because it indicates that he might not be able to beat Biden.
03:47 And for the Republican voters, that's number one. It's not necessarily that they love Trump, but they really want Biden gone.
03:54 OK, so let's imagine the scenario. We've got this Biden Trump rerun in November, which you mentioned there.
04:00 And it's looking it's looking pretty likely. Let's face it. I mean, supposing that happened.
04:04 What are the polls suggesting about who who's doing how well in this particular stage?
04:12 Yeah, the polls about a year out are really highly inaccurate.
04:16 And you might even remember that when we had Barack Obama in 2012, he was in a pretty similar position vis-a-vis.
04:26 And of course, Bill Clinton back in 1996 was in a very bad position, too.
04:30 These polls don't tell us a lot because there's a lot that can happen between now and then.
04:35 And of course, you know, getting the nomination for both candidates is important.
04:40 And secondarily, the health of the economy, of course, number one issue, whether or not we have continued crises internationally, could be very important.
04:49 That big abortion issue that the Democrats we know are going to beat the Republicans with could be very important.
04:56 And also, I'd say that's probably Haley's biggest advantage.
05:01 She did really well with Iowans who said that they did not want a national ban on abortion.
05:08 If she can use that and use the electability argument, she might be able to say, hey, I'm better positioned to take on this issue of abortion and to take on Joe Biden.
05:18 OK, well, thank you so much for taking the time to share that with us, Professor Todd Belt.
05:22 Thank you very much indeed.
05:24 Thank you.
05:24 [BLANK_AUDIO]