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- Eyes on #FinNifty expiries today - #ZeeEnterprises in the negative over reports that Sony to call off merger   Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive   Guest List: Jay Patel Research Head, Investmentor Securities Bhavin Mehta, VP-Derivatives Strategies, Dolat Capita _______________________________________________________   For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports   Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/   #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket   Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

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02:52 Hello and welcome. This is Sumeetah Hirani and you're watching the FNO Show, where we

02:56 take you through all the action in the derivative market. It's actually a pretty good looking

03:00 morning, with the markets rebounding very smartly after yesterday's fall. The Nifty

03:04 and Sensex both reclaimed important levels. The Nifty is at its day's high point, in a

03:08 kissing distance of 21,700, while the Sensex also trades with sharp gains. Sectorally,

03:13 all sectors look good, banks clearly leading the way up. Agam is standing by with more

03:18 on that. Agam, quite a smart recovery after yesterday's fall.

03:22 Certainly, Sumeetah, and I reckon a lot of shorts being covered. Let's start by taking

03:26 a look at the Nifty futures, and that should be up on your screen. Well, there is an unwinding

03:31 at the moment. There is, in fact, an increase in open interest. So I reckon a lot of the

03:35 positions have been unwound in the first half an hour of trade. But for now, the Nifty,

03:41 of course, back and higher by around 0.8%. As far as the bank Nifty is concerned, that

03:47 would perhaps see a little bit of unwinding coming through. So a clear case of short covering

03:52 considering the staggering 25% increase that we saw yesterday in terms of its open interest

03:57 today. That has declined by around 4.5%, even as the index advances by 0.8%.

04:02 Let's talk about the options market space. In terms of distribution, Max OI on the call

04:08 side once again shifts to 21,800 from 21,700. And on the lower end, we continue to see a

04:14 little more writing as far as the 21,500 put is concerned. And that's evident, as you can

04:21 see here, we are still seeing a little more writing as far as the 21,300, 21,400 puts

04:27 go. Let's move on and talk about stocks then. And we can, in fact, see a bout of further

04:35 shorts building into Polycab and PFC on the other end, Bajaj Auto, JAK Cement and Adani

04:40 Ports continue to see fresh longs building in. And in terms of stocks, we're seeing unwinding

04:44 in open interest. Let's pull that up as well. Short covering across in L&T, Titan, Billasoft,

04:49 Hindustan Copper and Bandhan Bank. So, I reckon that a lot of bulls will be heaving

04:54 a sigh of relief considering we've seen a little bit of recovery at the moment, Samina.

04:59 You're right. I think the bulls are heaving a sigh of relief. It's actually a good looking

05:04 market, broad-based gains across the business. IT is well seeing some buying ahead of the

05:09 numbers that will be reported, probably taking a strong handover from NASDAQ, which posted

05:14 one of its best days in two months. Jai Patel, Research Head, Investments for Securities

05:20 and Bhavin Mehta, VP, Derivatives Strategies at Daulat Capital joins in. Thank you, gentlemen.

05:25 Great having you both on the show. Jai, I'll start with you first. The WIX has declined.

05:30 The markets have pulled back very smartly after yesterday's fall. We did respect 21,500

05:35 yesterday, but now in kissing distance of 21,700. At these levels, one, would you initiate

05:42 along? And second, if you were brave enough to initiate along at closing yesterday, would

05:47 you hold that or would you take your profits? Good morning, Samina. Good morning, Agam and

05:52 good morning, everyone on the panel. So definitely, yesterday's move was a little surprising because

05:58 we are trading in a range bound trade, particularly 21,750 on the upside and 21,450 on the downside

06:05 seems to be a range. So definitely yesterday we saw buy on dips market kicking in and the

06:10 trade successfully played successfully well. And even if someone has bought after 3 p.m.

06:15 in yesterday's trade, it would be a good time to book your profits at 21,700 because we

06:20 are in the higher range and particularly January is a turbulent month historically. So I would

06:24 be cautious at current levels. And if we compare risk to ratio, there is a very pretty less

06:30 space for upside potential from this level. So I would be cautious and I would book profit

06:36 at current levels. We can see a long buildup coming in Nifty and we can see short covering

06:42 particularly on Bank Nifty. IT stocks have been supporting well in today's trade and

06:47 the likes of Adani Enterprise and Adani Ports and even the support from auto sector. We

06:53 are seeing a long buildup in Nifty, but I would be cautious at 700 or 750 zones. All

06:58 right, Bhavin, good morning. Nice to catch up after really long. Your view on the benchmarks

07:04 at the moment? Good morning. So, yes, we have seen a very strong pullback after the strong

07:12 sell-off that we have observed in the previous trading session. Two factors that we will

07:17 be closely watching out. One is the level, which is 21,400 on downside, which is 20 DMA.

07:26 Your initial risk will start once we break that particular level. While on the upside,

07:32 the highs that was registered on the 1st of this month, 1st January, which was closer

07:38 to 21,834 level, that needs to be broken on upside for markets to get a fresh trending

07:45 move on the upside. So unless these levels are not broken, I believe that more or less

07:50 we are in a range trade and probably a profit booking once again post this kind of a strong

07:57 pullback, which we have observed initially in the range of 21,700 to 750 is very much

08:03 likely. Jai, I'll talk to you about Bank Nifty in

08:07 a minute, but let's quickly get on to IT with earnings expected on Thursday. What is the

08:12 trade on the index, which is IT index and also any stock specific trades across IT where

08:19 you'd look to initiate trades ahead of numbers just to play earnings?

08:23 So if you look at Nifty IT, since past few days, Nifty IT index was consolidating in

08:30 a tight range, but today we saw breakout above 9-day exponential moving average and you can

08:35 see the resistance coming in at around 735,780 zones. So I believe there would be some bit

08:42 of reality before numbers kicks in. So I would be bullish on Billasoft on IT space, particularly

08:49 for mid-cap IT. If you look at Billasoft, just a second. So if you look at Bisoft chart,

08:54 we can see a strong support getting in at 21-day EMA. The super trend line has been

09:00 crossed above and we can see RSI getting into positive divergence. So Bisoft would be something

09:05 I would be bullish on. We can see all-time high levels coming in this stock in pretty

09:10 much a shorter time. So I would suggest you for buying this stock in the Jan future at

09:16 around 730 zones, which is trading at near 730 zones. And the upside would be 755 zones.

09:22 And the stop loss we can keep at around 714. So the risk-to-earn ratio is pretty much in

09:27 the favour for long position. And I will suggest IT sector will be all-mile performer in Q3

09:34 instance. Right. Bhavin, I want to very quickly take

09:38 your view on the fin Nifty on an intraday basis. You know, I am looking at the movements

09:43 and while we started off with a lot of weakness or rather not weakness per se, but we did

09:49 see the fin Nifty go off, you know, fall from where it opened and from there on we saw recovery

09:55 and now it is trading above today's open. The question really is where do you expect

10:00 the expiry to come through today and what sort of an option strategy would you perhaps

10:06 deploy considering it is the fin Nifty expiry? Yeah. So for fin Nifty over last couple of

10:15 trading sessions, what we are observing is that upside is clearly getting seen the resistance

10:22 in the range of 21,570 to 21,600 range on upside. If you look at the option positioning

10:30 clearly, it is indicative of further uptick in trade today. I am sensing a bull call spread

10:38 will be something that participants can look at where your risk will be limited. Your reward

10:44 also again limited. However, given that it is trading in a very tight range, I am not

10:51 anticipating an immediate breakout. This is how the benchmark index is at this point of

10:58 time. So my sense is one can look for a bull call spread between 21,400 to 21,600. I am

11:05 not anticipating either a breakout above 21,600 on upside. So that risk will be limited, not

11:13 anticipating a major move above 21,600 as well. Jey, what about you? How would you play

11:22 the bank Nifty? Is there anything that you would want to do on bank Nifty because it

11:26 pretty much let the fall in yesterday's trade? So I would avoid bank Nifty for now because

11:33 the Nifty, sorry, sorry, Fin Nifty. So if we talk about Fin Nifty, I would currently

11:43 avoid this index particularly because it is trading in the shadow of the bearish candle

11:49 which we saw in yesterday's trade. So I would wait for the breakout to kick in for Fin Nifty

11:54 and 21,500 zone would be something I would suggest after crossing that level we would

11:59 be a buyer, we would initiate a long position at that level for the targets of 21,600.

12:05 Bhavin and Jey, stay with us. We will take a quick break. We will come back, continue

12:10 our conversation and of course, take you through various stock trades as well today.

12:14 Thank you.

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15:07 Hi, I'm Bhavik from the F&O Show.

15:10 We now talk about stock ideas in terms of what we can in fact perhaps go ahead and implement.

15:16 Well, Bhavin, I'll come to you.

15:18 What are your trading ideas that you have for us today?

15:21 Yeah.

15:22 So, we have two trade ideas.

15:25 One on the long side and another one is on the short side.

15:28 The first idea is on Indigo.

15:31 Indigo is a very strong support zone.

15:37 It's a very strong support zone.

15:40 It's a very strong support zone.

15:43 It's a very strong support zone.

15:46 It's a very strong support zone.

15:49 It's a very strong support zone.

15:52 It's a very strong support zone.

15:55 It's a very strong support zone.

15:58 So, I would recommend a stop loss of 2925, which is your 20 DEMA, and ride this move towards level of 3200 on upside.

16:07 Second stop that I am recommending is on the short side.

16:11 Recommending short on HUBR, which is currently quoting in the range of 2580 to 2590.

16:18 A strict stop loss of 2625 should be placed for a possible target of 2480.

16:24 The stock is already broken 20 DEMA with good amount of short development in trade yesterday.

16:29 So, a negative kind of a trade on HUBR.

16:32 Alright.

16:33 Jai, what about you?

16:34 Your trading ideas for today?

16:36 So, I have two buy calls, particularly on Adani Enterprise.

16:40 First, Adani Enterprise currently sustaining January futures, particularly sustaining above 3000 levels.

16:46 That's a very positive zone.

16:48 And we saw a good volume buying in today's trade.

16:51 So, I would be a buyer at current levels, 3060 January futures, and the target would be 3210.

16:58 And we can keep a stop loss at around 2980 levels.

17:01 If we look at the daily chart, currently the stock is trading well above its 9-day and 21-day exponential moving average.

17:08 And it is trading above and sustaining well above 3000 zones.

17:12 So, I would be positive currently with a mild flat to positive bias for Adani Enterprise.

17:19 Second would be, as we talked about, Bisoft.

17:21 So, Bisoft would be another peak I would look at for buying in IT space.

17:26 720, sorry, 2820, 730 zones currently the stock is trading at that levels.

17:32 The target would be placed at around 755 zones and the stop loss would be placed at around 714 zones.

17:38 The stock is trading well above its moving averages.

17:41 RSI displaying, about to display a positive divergence in volume.

17:46 We can see a volume buying in coming in this stock.

17:48 So, before results, I would expect IT to rally a bit and we can take advantage of that rally particularly in Bisoft.

17:56 Bhavin, do you track Tata Motors?

17:58 The stock is doing quite well in today's trade.

18:00 We saw those JLR numbers, those were also pretty impressive, at least in terms of the street was expecting.

18:06 Tata Motors at these levels, what's the trade?

18:09 Yeah, so last time we had recommended long on this stock on the channel.

18:15 Anticipating strong move to continue for this counter.

18:19 Very good amount of consolidation has taken place over last 5 to 6 trading sessions.

18:24 I am anticipating a move closer to 850 on upside.

18:28 The only caveat here is that stock today suits, definitely look to sustain this level of 800.

18:35 So, if that happens, up move should be very sharp for this particular counter stop loss.

18:41 So, if we talk with respect to risk reward, risk reward is also favorable.

18:45 I am not anticipating a move below level of 775 in near term.

18:50 So, anticipating a strong trade also on the derivative side, we have seen a consistent long build up in this counter.

18:57 Along with good amount of roll aggression.

19:01 So, this clearly points out to further up move for this particular account.

19:05 Okay, well, the other counter that we want to talk about and this is of course from the oil and gas space.

19:11 Let's pull up all the OMCs and see what they are doing right now.

19:14 And take a look at where we have in fact seen traction.

19:18 So, HPCL, BPCL and along with IOC, they have all been seeing some amount of gains off late.

19:26 The question is that can we see a trade somewhere around here?

19:30 Jai, I will take this one up with you. If you are tracking BPCL, HPCL or IOC, anything that stands out for you?

19:38 So, I believe Hint Petro is outperforming all other OMCs particularly if you look at pure OMC space.

19:47 Because we see a morning star pattern coming in Hint Petro on the daily chart.

19:51 And if this level sustains above 436, I would be a buyer and with level sustaining above this level.

19:59 I guess, just a second. So, 450 would be something I would keep as an initial target.

20:05 And if this level crosses out, I will keep a target around 462.

20:10 So, Hint Petro would be something I would suggest in OMC space.

20:13 Also, ONGC after the oil discovery. ONGC, I believe, would be something we can look for, for a little positional point of view.

20:22 And I guess, this stock can perform well above around 240 would be a target in ONGC space.

20:29 In metals, I mean, today of course, everything is looking good.

20:33 But with the way the dollar is playing out and the outlook on the dollar, metals may not do too well in the near term if the dollar strengthens.

20:41 Would you use today's opportunity to maybe considering some short calls on metals as a pack?

20:47 Yeah. So, what we have seen this particular expiry is good amount of short built up on two of the names.

20:57 One is Tata Steel, close to about 18% over addition so far. Stock is almost down close to about 3%.

21:04 Today's up move, I believe, as you have pointed out, can be looked as an opportunity to trim position

21:13 and not anticipating a very strong move from current level for Tata Steel.

21:19 This is one counter where one can probably reduce the exposure.

21:23 However, on other hand, I believe, while a few of the metal names, so notably, be it Nalco, Hindustan Copper, Steel Authority of India,

21:35 frequently keeps moving in and out of F&O Bank.

21:38 However, we have seen a very strong development for Nalco for this particular series.

21:46 Good amount of over addition, close to about 70 odd percent.

21:50 So, if this moves out of F&O Bank, there could be an opportunity at lower levels to buy this particular company.

21:56 Okay. And from there on, I believe, I did take the fin nifty view.

22:02 Okay. We took the fin nifty view from both our experts at the moment.

22:07 But, you know, I actually do want to address and pull up all the stocks which are seeing an increase in open interest.

22:14 So, let's have that plate up again and take a look at where we are.

22:17 In fact, seeing a lot more traction in terms of increase in OI.

22:21 So, Bajaj Auto is right at the top. Polycap is the other interesting one which I was trying to remember.

22:27 Now, Polycap has been seeing a decline for the second straight day at the moment.

22:31 And there has been a little bit of weakness which is starting to seep in.

22:34 Polycap is one of the relatively stronger counters, which has been over the past few months.

22:39 But it's also been consolidating if you take, you know, the past three to four months point of view.

22:45 Jai, if you track Polycap, could you give us the levels to watch out for and how you would play this one?

22:53 So, today, if you see Polycap's chart, it has bounced back from psychological level of 5000 and currently it is trading near 5121.

23:02 So, currently, if we look at 5097 would be something we can keep as a support zone because the stock is getting a support at 100 exponential moving average.

23:13 And if this level sustains, we can believe the stock can cross above again around 5365.

23:20 So, 5100 to be approximate, we can keep as a support zone.

23:25 If this level sustains, we can initiate a long position for tomorrow's trade.

23:29 Right. Bhavin, Jai, great having both of you on the show. It's a good looking market.

23:33 We are leaving it at that. It's fin nifty as well. So, there will be some activity that fin nifty.

23:38 We will see in the second half of trade today. With that, it's a wrap.

23:41 But we did catch up with Sumit of Malabar Investments.

23:44 You are at his view on the markets for 2024.

23:47 What we saw in the markets in 2023 was sort of rising this wall of worries.

23:54 I think when we started the year, I think 2022 wasn't a good year. And there were a lot of worries that existed in the beginning of 2023.

24:02 And slowly as they receded, the market sort of continued its climb up.

24:08 If you look at today, I mean, we think the market is reasonably well poised.

24:13 So, on the one hand, you have many positives. You have economy that's doing well.

24:17 It's sort of gathering for the pace. Your interest rates that are probably peaked out and they will come down.

24:24 Macros are generally good. Commodities are benign. So, these are all sort of good factors for the market.

24:30 But on the other hand, you also have this worry of valuations being high globally.

24:36 Maybe some sort of correction may happen. You've had such a steep rise in interest rates.

24:41 Something somewhere breaks. You know, there's slowdown or recession that people have been talking about.

24:47 So, these are the things that are the cause for worry. But the biggest one is that the markets are always forward looking.

24:54 Right. So, last year, even as things were in that crate, as they started to improve, markets already moved up.

25:01 So, some of this positive is already priced in. Right. So, where does that leave us?

25:05 You know, we think that there's still probably further upside because, you know, as you pointed out, the rally only started in the last two quarters of the year.

25:15 Right. You know, just to point out, right, in the 18 months that ended in March 2023, we saw a massive amounts of foreign capital outflow.

25:26 Right. More than what we saw during the financial crisis. And it's only since April that foreign capital has started to come back.

25:33 And what has come back is only maybe, you know, two thirds of what had gone out. Right. So, there's still some of that capital has to come back and probably more.

25:41 Right. Because, as you said, that India is becoming more prominent. People want to put more capital in.

25:46 So, as and these these sort of flows have a momentum with them. They run for a period of time.

25:52 And and so, that will likely continue for some more period. Unless something big breaks somewhere.

25:58 So, that's what you're seeing. But at the same time, I think the easy money of, you know, rising tide, you know, raising all the boats, I think that's probably over.

26:07 So, now it will be sort of more selective. Wherever you see good performance, companies delivering earnings and cash flows, that's where you may see you may see the upside.

26:17 Right. So, so that's that's our view on the market.

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