- #BajajFinance gains on the back of a strong Q3 business update
- What does it mean for shareholders?
Get your stock-related queries answered by technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
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- What does it mean for shareholders?
Get your stock-related queries answered by technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
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TVTranscript
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02:07 You're watching Ask Profit.
02:09 I'm Smriti Chaudhary, and with me is Alex Mathew.
02:12 And for the next 30 minutes, we'll
02:13 take all your stock-related questions.
02:15 You can write to us on the WhatsApp number that's
02:17 flashing on your screen or through any
02:19 of our social media channels.
02:21 We'll also take your queries from the YouTube live chat.
02:23 So you can write to us there as well.
02:25 Now, let me introduce you to the guests for today.
02:28 We have Mr. Gaurang Shah of JioJit Financial Services
02:31 and Vaishali Parekh of Prabhudas Leeladhar.
02:34 Now, Alex, before we get into the questions,
02:37 why don't you tell us what's happening in the markets
02:39 right now?
02:39 Yeah, and we should also say thank you
02:42 to both of our guests for joining in.
02:44 And Gaurang, Vaishali, thank you so much for taking the time.
02:47 Let's quickly take our viewers through where
02:49 things stand right now.
02:50 And broadly, the setup was a little bit wobbly
02:54 based on the global picture.
02:55 But we are bucking that trend and bucking it
02:59 by a big margin, right?
03:00 So you have the benchmark Nifty 50
03:02 that's trading with gains of about 0.6%.
03:04 You have the broader markets that are outperforming.
03:06 You have the mid-cap 150 index that's up about 1%.
03:09 And you have the small-cap 250 index
03:11 that's just very close to that 0.9% mark or thereabouts.
03:16 And a few of the sectors really are gaining quite substantially.
03:19 Among them, the Realty Index, which is up over 5%
03:23 at this juncture.
03:24 And a few of those names, the likes of Brigade Enterprises,
03:28 the likes of Soba, something like a DLF
03:30 is also gaining close to 6% overall Realty.
03:33 Some of that has to do with the quarterly updates
03:36 that have come in.
03:37 And there's also a lot of optimism
03:40 about the prospects in the sector.
03:42 Some inkling about the inventory numbers across the system
03:46 being quite low, in fact, compared to what
03:49 we've seen in the past.
03:50 So that's bearing-- that's having a bearing on the stocks
03:53 in trade today.
03:54 Apart from that, we're also focusing
03:56 on Bajaj Finance, Smriti.
03:58 And that's because of the quarterly update.
04:00 And in fact, that is the stock focus of Ask Profit today.
04:05 The customer franchise is at 8 crores.
04:07 It's up 5% sequentially and 22% year on year.
04:11 The new loans booked are at 98.6 lakh.
04:14 That's up as much as 26%.
04:17 And the assets under management--
04:19 and this is the important thing--
04:20 has grown 35% year on year and 7% sequentially.
04:25 So the concerns about growth, perhaps a little overblown.
04:29 Well, that's what we need to find out from Gaurang.
04:31 Gaurang, what did you make of the numbers?
04:33 And what's your view on Bajaj Finance?
04:36 Thank you, Alex, and morning to all of you.
04:38 So firstly, a disclosure.
04:40 We do have a positive buy call on the fundamental side
04:43 of Bajaj Finance.
04:44 And if you recollect, Alex, I think
04:46 it was about a month and a half or two back, two months back,
04:49 that Bajaj Finance came to the markets
04:51 to raise funds to the extent of about 8,000 plus crores.
04:54 And when you have finance companies,
04:56 NPFCs like Bajaj Finance coming to the market
04:59 and raising funds, I don't think there
05:01 has to be any questions in terms of the business
05:04 outlook going forward from here on.
05:05 Because had it been not for a positive credit
05:10 demand in the market, they would not come to the market
05:12 to raise such a huge amount.
05:14 And even if you recollect, very recently,
05:18 Mahindra and Mahindra Finance had given their advances
05:21 outlook.
05:22 Some of the banks have come out and given their numbers
05:27 with respect to advances and deposits
05:29 and the cost of borrowing, cost of lending.
05:31 And there also, the numbers and the commentary
05:33 is very, very strong.
05:35 We remain optimistic on Bajaj Finance
05:37 from a long-term point of view.
05:38 And we have a buy recommendation on Bajaj Finance.
05:41 Right.
05:42 Good morning, Vaishali.
05:43 How does Bajaj Finance look on the charts?
05:46 The fundamentals do seem really strong.
05:48 But do tell us about what kind of trajectory
05:51 do you expect from the stock?
05:53 Good morning, everyone.
05:54 And thanks for having me on the show.
05:56 So yes, Bajaj Finance, in fact, luckily, we
05:59 had recommended this on a technical level
06:02 just two days back when it was at 7,300 levels.
06:05 So at that time, it was in the process
06:08 of making higher bottom formation.
06:10 And there was a resistance, near-term resistance,
06:12 coming in at 7,550.
06:14 So today, we saw, witnessed a strong opening.
06:17 And we are sustaining well above that.
06:20 So well, from a trading perspective,
06:22 I would look at a short-term target of 7,800.
06:25 But if one was to hold this for a longer period,
06:28 well, we have very high targets of 8,000-plus to start with.
06:33 And that would go to even 10,000.
06:35 So I would say now, 7,150 holds us a very good support.
06:39 To my view, it would be a buy it every day
06:41 for the longer-term horizon.
06:43 OK.
06:44 All right.
06:44 With that, let's start with our queries.
06:46 We've got quite a few that are already piling up.
06:49 But I just want to remind you, you
06:50 can send your queries to us on any one of our social media
06:53 platforms, preferably on YouTube and also on the WhatsApp number.
06:57 That should be flashing intermittently on your screen.
07:00 There it is.
07:00 We've got the first question coming in from Mohit.
07:02 Mohit is writing in from Ludhiana
07:04 and is asking about Coal India, which
07:07 he has bought at levels of 152.
07:09 In fact, let's pull up the chart.
07:10 It's trading very significantly higher than that price at 388.
07:16 And it's up about 0.9% in trade today as well.
07:19 Gaurang, the latest updates on the volume data for Coal India
07:23 is looking positive.
07:25 What's your view for a two-year period, though?
07:27 This is what our viewer wants to know.
07:29 Should they hold on?
07:32 Well, so firstly, not only the volumes
07:34 have gone up, Alex, but also the quality of coal
07:38 has improved to a great extent, thanks
07:39 to the number of washeries that they have added to their cleaning
07:44 process of coal.
07:46 Secondly, after, I think, a multi-year underperformance,
07:50 Coal India has managed to come out from its hibernation,
07:56 if I can use that word, and given this kind of return.
07:59 The demand outlook looked quite positive.
08:03 Realizations via e-auctions are also getting in fair rate.
08:08 And it is one of the largest companies
08:13 in terms of natural reserves of coal.
08:16 We have a bike--
08:18 we have a coverage on Coal India from the fundamental side.
08:20 And I think if this run rate continues,
08:23 if the quality stays improved, and if the quantity in terms
08:28 of output of coal garners a much more higher trajectory,
08:35 then definitely the earnings will look much more stronger.
08:39 So we do have a positive call on Coal India
08:41 from a long-term point of view.
08:42 OK, but it's a buy based on the fundamentals.
08:44 Any target that you have, Gaurang?
08:47 So currently, Alex, we are under the process
08:50 of witnessing third quarter earnings.
08:53 The targets that we have set aside
08:56 on the basis of the earnings that we have seen
08:58 is very close to where the stock is trading right now.
09:01 And I'm quite sure on fallback of the improved quality
09:04 and quantity, the numbers will look quite strong
09:07 and we will revise the target upward.
09:08 So we'll have to wait a while for the Q3 numbers to unfold.
09:12 But I still remain optimistic about numbers coming in
09:15 positive and the stock getting re-rated.
09:17 OK, so with that as the context, then Vaishali,
09:20 would you be able to give us any strategies
09:23 based on the technicals?
09:24 If somebody needs to average their buy price
09:28 and add to their holdings of Coal India,
09:31 what advice would you give them?
09:33 Definitely.
09:34 So I would say, of course, the trend is very, very strong.
09:37 But I think the stock can get into a consolidation.
09:41 So I would say for near-term basis, 375, 380
09:44 would act as a very good support.
09:46 So if this opportunity arises closer to the support level,
09:50 I would recommend a buy.
09:51 And I think there would be furthermore conviction
09:54 once the stock goes above 395 levels.
09:56 And that would give us a further projected target of 420.
10:00 I won't be setting higher targets right now
10:02 because, as I mentioned on the weekly chart,
10:05 on the monthly chart, we are in the deep overbought zone.
10:08 So I would be cautiously positive.
10:11 But yes, the view still remains very positive.
10:13 All right.
10:15 Next up, we have a question from Akshay.
10:17 He's writing in from Varanasi.
10:19 He's talking about two counters here.
10:20 Now, one is MSPL.
10:22 And he bought the stock at around 12 rupees.
10:25 And the stock has doubled from there to 24.
10:29 It's up about 2% in trade today.
10:31 And the second one he's talking about
10:33 is Himadri Specialty Chemicals.
10:35 That also he has bought at around 300 levels.
10:39 And the stock is seeing an uptick today
10:41 and is up about 8% in trade.
10:44 Now, Gaurang, tell us a little bit
10:46 about the fundamentals around metals and specialty chemicals.
10:49 And specifically, if you would recommend holding
10:54 onto these two stocks.
10:55 Himadri Chemicals and which was the other one?
11:00 Sorry, I couldn't get the name.
11:01 Sorry, it's MSPL, MSP Steel and Power.
11:05 OK, so I'll restrict my comments to the outlook
11:08 on both these sectors since we don't have a coverage.
11:11 And if you have to go by the recent report that came in,
11:14 there is much optimism in terms of the consumption of metals
11:19 going up domestically.
11:21 News flows from China normally overshadows
11:24 this particular sector.
11:25 But over there also, I think there
11:26 is a little bit of respite.
11:28 Margin pressures because of input cost,
11:31 which was witnessed in earlier quarters,
11:33 is now a thing of the past.
11:35 And most probably, most of the metals,
11:39 ferrous, non-ferrous manufacturing companies
11:41 are likely to increase their flat and long product prices.
11:45 So if I were to put all this in perspective,
11:47 I think this sector should do well.
11:48 This is also one of the underperforming sectors.
11:50 But given the demand outlook domestically and rising power
11:53 coming back, raw material cost going down,
11:56 you should have a decent set of numbers.
11:58 In the specialty and agrochemical sector,
12:01 there are other names other than Himadri Chemicals
12:03 that we are optimistic on.
12:04 And here also, I think after six to nine months
12:08 of consolidation and a side of this performance,
12:11 the sector is looking quite strong on fallback
12:13 of a couple of triggers.
12:15 One is, of course, the export possibility
12:18 on fallback of Europe plus one, China plus one.
12:21 A lot of investment in R&D that was undertaken
12:24 a couple of months back has resulted in new products
12:27 getting launched.
12:28 And in the near future, you will see more products
12:31 getting launched.
12:32 So I think if you've invested in strong fundamental companies
12:35 in specialty and agrochemicals, you
12:36 should continue to hold your investments.
12:39 Gaurav, by any chance, do you feel
12:41 metals is kind of a hedge right now,
12:43 considering the fluctuation in dollar index?
12:45 And there is some positivity from within the--
12:50 I mean, internationally and domestically.
12:52 But do you actually see this materializing
12:54 for the longer term?
12:56 I hope it does tailwind positive,
12:58 because directly correlating it with the dollar index,
13:04 to a certain extent, it might work for you
13:06 if you are taking a short to medium term call, on which I'm
13:09 not quite equipped to give a positive answer on this.
13:12 But looking at pure fundamentals,
13:14 I think metals is sector as an overall.
13:18 And then, of course, as investment ideas,
13:20 we have Tata Steel, GSW Steel, GSPL, Hindalco, Vedanta
13:24 as investment ideas.
13:26 And I'm quite sure if infrastructure has to grow,
13:30 cement and metals have to get consumed.
13:31 Because without these two commodities,
13:33 you cannot make a durable infrastructure.
13:35 Right.
13:35 Vaishali, I'm going to come to you on these two counters.
13:38 MSPL bought at 12.4 levels.
13:41 HSCL, Himadri Specialty Chemicals, bought at 300 levels.
13:45 Should Akshay continue holding these two counters?
13:48 So well, since it's totally in the overbought,
13:52 we may see some whipsaws coming in.
13:54 But when I'm seeing the longer term weekly chart,
13:57 I think the stock is ready for higher targets.
14:01 And I would say keep a stock loss of 20.
14:03 And from 20, I think if the support is respected,
14:06 then the stock is likely to go towards 30 and higher.
14:10 So for a longer term period, yes, it is a buy and hold.
14:13 In fact, buy at every decline.
14:15 But 20 should be respected as a crucial support level.
14:19 And as far as Himadri Specialty is concerned,
14:22 well, we are seeing the stock given a one-way rally.
14:27 So I would say, well, partial profit booking
14:29 should not be ruled out.
14:31 But if the person really wants to hold it,
14:34 then I think trailing stop loss should be the way to go ahead.
14:38 320 should be kept as a trailing stop loss.
14:41 And if we see a follow on rally coming in,
14:44 we would expect a target of 380 to 400 in this stock.
14:47 All right.
14:48 The next question is coming in from Rajesh Maheshwari,
14:51 he's writing in from Singapore, asking about HUL.
14:55 And in fact, this is something that he's already bought.
14:58 He's bought at levels of 2,325.
15:01 And he's got 60 shares.
15:02 That's the average holding price.
15:04 He's got a short to medium term outlook.
15:07 So I'm first going to go on the fundamentals of medium term.
15:10 Goran, there was certain question marks about demand,
15:13 particularly from the rural side,
15:15 and a little bit of competition coming in
15:18 from the domestic unlisted players.
15:22 Is that out of the window based on what you're seeing,
15:24 the volume picture?
15:26 And would you hold on to this stock for the medium term
15:28 at least?
15:29 Oh, the competition from the unorganized sector
15:31 is way out of the window, Alex, to be very honest.
15:34 And I think people have now started
15:36 to realize the credibility of brand loyalty and niche
15:42 and marquee names.
15:44 Firstly, I would request Mr. Maheshwari
15:47 that if he has the legacy or if he can extend the time horizon
15:54 to maybe about 12 to 18 months, only
15:57 to realize better returns from his investment in HL,
16:00 because it's one of the large cap known
16:03 names in the FMCG universe, point number one.
16:05 Point number two, Alex, not to forget, last year, 2023,
16:08 we had a very erratic monsoon.
16:10 Excess in some parts of India, deficit in some parts of India,
16:14 and below normal marginally in some parts of India.
16:17 And historically, India was, is, and will always
16:21 remain a consumption-driven story.
16:23 Large part of the volume growth support
16:25 comes from the semi-urban and rural India, which is directly
16:28 dependent on the agri sector.
16:29 So a marginal blip cannot be ruled out
16:32 from a very short-term point of view in terms of volume growth,
16:35 but I don't think it's anything major or serious.
16:37 Secondly, input cost has been coming down gradually,
16:40 even for FMCG sector, whereby net margins are
16:43 going to get improved and translating
16:45 into a better profitability.
16:47 We have targets, as of now, whatever
16:49 earnings we've seen second quarter of this financial year,
16:52 somewhere close to about 2850 to 2900.
16:55 But I'm quite sure the way consumption
16:58 is driving the economy and the huge population that
17:01 depends on it, the numbers are going to improve going forward.
17:04 So if you have the legacy or liberty
17:06 to extend your time horizon, I would request you to do that.
17:09 All right.
17:10 On that note, we have to step into a very quick break.
17:12 I'm your host, Shalekh Gaurang.
17:13 Do stay with us.
17:14 And viewers, please stay with us as well.
17:16 We'll take more queries on the other side.
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19:49 Welcome back.
19:56 You're watching Ask Prophet.
19:57 Let's jump right into the questions.
20:00 This one is from Chandrasekharan.
20:02 He's talking about PFC, Power Finance Corporation.
20:06 He's already bought 3,700 shares at an average price of 250.
20:12 The stock is currently up in trade about 4%,
20:15 trading around 408 levels.
20:17 Now, there's a lot of positivity in the power sector.
20:22 Gaurang, based on this positivity,
20:26 and do you also kind of hold this sort of long-term view
20:28 in the power space?
20:30 And specifically to this company,
20:32 there's some news around they've signed an MOU
20:34 with the Gujarat government, and that's
20:36 probably why there's an uptick in the stock price.
20:39 What do you suggest doing with the stock in the longer term?
20:43 So we had coverage on PFC sometime back,
20:47 and post that, our targets were in place,
20:50 and we have removed the coverage.
20:52 Currently, we don't have coverage.
20:54 But let me give you a glimpse about three sectors which
20:58 are interconnected--
20:59 power generation, power transmission and distribution,
21:01 and power equipments.
21:03 And this company, basically, Power Finance Corporation,
21:05 is into financing of power projects.
21:09 And there is a huge roadmap that the government of India
21:13 has drawn up as far as new power generating capacities
21:17 are concerned, especially focusing on solar as well as
21:19 wind power.
21:21 You recently saw the performance of IREDA,
21:25 which is also involved into power project financing
21:28 and the performance from the floor price to the price
21:30 that it went, and currently also it's steady.
21:32 So our view is that if by the next five to eight years,
21:37 if there's going to be 400 or 500 gigawatts of new power
21:41 generating capacities coming up, naturally,
21:45 power project financing companies
21:46 will also be in focus.
21:47 So will be power transmission companies like PowerGrid,
21:50 power generation companies like Tata Power or NTPC or CESC,
21:54 and power equipment manufacturing companies
21:57 like KEC International being focused.
21:59 So we are very optimistic.
22:00 And I think what turnaround we saw in defense
22:03 when defense FDI and policy changes were made
22:06 about three or four years back,
22:07 and that translated to the positivities currently
22:10 as we witnessing in defense,
22:11 our view is that power and railway stocks
22:15 are also going to go through that kind of a transition.
22:18 So you should get invested in these sectors
22:21 with strong companies in mind.
22:23 - Okay, fair point.
22:25 Let's run through a couple of a few quick questions then.
22:28 We're running out of time.
22:29 SBI card is the next question.
22:30 We've got this question coming in from,
22:32 sorry, I lost it, Omkar.
22:35 Omkar is writing on WhatsApp
22:37 and he's asking for the next eight to 10 months.
22:38 Should you buy Vaishali?
22:40 - Well, it has been quite a laggard,
22:43 but well, I would say once it crosses 780 levels decisively,
22:47 that has been a resistance for quite a while.
22:49 So once it crosses 780,
22:50 I would say you may get some good up move coming,
22:54 going towards 830 to 850.
22:57 From there on, we can have a relook,
22:59 but for now it would be purely a trading strategy.
23:02 - Right, next one is from Dilip.
23:03 He's talking about Sterling and Wilson Renewable.
23:06 Now another power question, Gorang.
23:08 He's bought at levels of 450.
23:10 The stock is currently down in trade today,
23:12 and actually he's in a loss, 444 levels.
23:16 Would you suggest holding onto this?
23:18 In the medium term?
23:19 - So again, this is also into solar,
23:21 and I just mentioned that strong companies
23:23 do command credible long-term investment horizon.
23:26 Unfortunately, specific coverage is not there
23:29 on Sterling and Wilson,
23:30 but I think this is also one of those companies
23:32 which will benefit in case of larger contribution
23:35 from solar power.
23:36 - Would you suggest it for medium term as well?
23:40 - Well, so I, no, for medium term is,
23:43 I know I'm a fundamental guy,
23:44 very difficult for me to take a short to medium term call.
23:46 I think Vaishali is more equipped on this.
23:48 - All right, Vaishali, how does it look on the charts
23:51 for the medium term?
23:52 - Yes, I can give my view on this.
23:54 So it is already in an uptrend,
23:55 and when I'm seeing the weekly chart,
23:57 there is a near-term resistance coming at around 455 levels.
24:01 So having said that, once it crosses 455,
24:04 it opens room for further high targets.
24:07 So I would say stay put, in fact, buy it every decline,
24:09 because it is already got into the good trend,
24:12 and the worst seems to be obviously over.
24:15 It's on a road to recovery, so I think go for it.
24:18 - Okay, fair point.
24:20 We've got a question from Bhupesh writing in
24:22 from Ahmedabad, and he's asking about Satya Industries.
24:25 He points out, he's done a little bit of reading
24:27 on this one, and he says that it's a paper production company
24:30 which has tripled its capacity of paper production.
24:33 Do you have view on this one?
24:35 - Oh, Alex, I'm not seeing this one.
24:38 - Okay, fair point.
24:40 I'm gonna try Vaishali.
24:41 Vaishali, do you have a view on Satya?
24:43 Can you tell us anything about the technicals?
24:45 - Well, right now it is in the process
24:49 of making higher bottom formation,
24:50 and after a long consolidation, it's even gone out of it.
24:54 So I would say take 135 as support levels,
24:58 and it can be test 150 to 155.
25:02 There is a hurdle coming at 165 levels.
25:06 So once the 165 levels are crossed,
25:09 I think it would go for higher targets.
25:11 So right now, I would keep it as a purely trading range
25:14 of 130 as support and 165 as the target price.
25:17 - Right.
25:18 Next up is a question from Amit Rastogi.
25:21 He's talking about PI Industries.
25:24 He's bought the stock at 1800 levels.
25:26 The stock is around 3400, so quite a profit there, Gaurang.
25:30 What's your long-term view for this one?
25:32 - Well, this is also one of the most, you know,
25:35 stronger players in terms of speciality in agro.
25:38 It was trading at 3800, if I'm not mistaken,
25:41 when the news came out that one of its counterparts
25:43 in China is also getting into the focus products
25:46 at PI Industries.
25:47 Post that, I think we got clarification from the management.
25:50 We have a buy call on PI Industries.
25:51 Stay invested.
25:52 We are returning targets of somewhere close to about 4000
25:56 from a long-term point of view on PI Industries.
25:58 - Significant upside even from now.
26:00 The next one is from Kamal Khan,
26:03 and he's asking about Varun Beverages.
26:05 He's bought at levels of 800.
26:06 He's asking whether to book profits.
26:08 Vaishali, this one's for you.
26:10 - Hello.
26:11 So well, Varun Beverages,
26:13 also we have witnessed the stock really running,
26:16 but there's no damage to the trend.
26:18 I would say continue holding
26:20 because I think there are further price projections
26:22 coming towards 1300 and 1400 levels.
26:25 So stay put, but keep a trailing stop loss
26:28 since he's already bought at lower levels.
26:30 1200 should be the stop loss.
26:32 - All right.
26:33 Infibeam, coming back to you, Vaishali, on the charts.
26:36 The question is coming in from Mr. S.M. Reddy,
26:38 and he's writing in from Hyderabad.
26:39 Would you buy for the short term?
26:41 - So Infibeam, the one which is 23 rupees.
26:45 Today we are seeing a good spike in volume.
26:47 Candle also shows.
26:48 So with today's low, he can be an aggressive trader.
26:52 Go for a target of around 26.
26:54 - Okay, fair point.
26:55 I think we're completely out of time.
26:57 We've managed to slip in a couple more,
26:59 but Vaishali, as well as Gaurang,
27:01 thank you so much for joining in.
27:02 And a lot of our viewers, unfortunately,
27:04 we've not been able to get questions answered,
27:06 but we will be back tomorrow at 11.30, Smriti and I.
27:09 And so from the entire team that put the show together,
27:12 thank you so much for watching.
27:13 Do stay tuned.
27:14 More coming up over the course of the day.
27:15 And this is NDTV Profit.
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