India Market Open | Global Cues Tilt Towards Risk Off | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

NDTV Profit

- Global news flow & cues - Stocks to watch, trade setup - F&O strategies Samina Nalwala, Tamanna Inamdar and Agam Vakil bring all this and more as we head towards the 'India Market Open'. #NDTVProfitLive

Transcript

00:00:00 India market open setting ourselves up another week of trade

00:00:03 It's gonna be a busy week lots of business updates and of course we go into earning season with TCS and emphasis

00:00:09 Morning, Tamanna. Good morning, Samina

00:00:11 It is indeed going to be a big week and the focus is on now

00:00:15 Delivery of promises if I was to overall describe what kind of a week we're having and that's already beginning with the business updates

00:00:22 right stocks have been running up markets have been running up on the expectation of

00:00:27 Good corporate results now those numbers will speak for themselves

00:00:31 But before we get on to the trade setup of the day, let me quickly tell you what's happening globally

00:00:35 No massive news flow but suffice to say that the jobs data which was awaited in the US December jobs

00:00:43 Data has shaken up hopes of an earlier than expected rate cut

00:00:49 In fact, the rate cut hopes could be pushed further back definitely from March because of that data

00:00:54 Let me just quickly go through what that data was. So non farm payrolls in December grew by

00:00:59 216,000 so two lakh sixteen thousand the estimate was one lakh seventy thousand

00:01:05 So overshot the estimate by a fair bit the unemployment rate meanwhile has sustained at three point eight percent what that's telling you that

00:01:13 Jobs are still hot

00:01:15 there are enough jobs available unemployment is still low and

00:01:20 More jobs means more push for inflation. So that concern is there you saw that in the 10-year yield as well

00:01:27 the US Treasury the 10-year Treasury

00:01:29 Above 4% up about six basis points on the back of that hotter than expected jobs data

00:01:36 But here domestically Samina, it's all about the business updates and it's all about the results this week, isn't it?

00:01:42 It is it is going to be a busy weekend a week rather. We're over the weekend

00:01:47 Quick check on the gift nifty before we take you through how we're setting ourselves up for trade this morning

00:01:52 Marginally cap up is what we were

00:01:54 Expected to open when that's now turned negative

00:01:56 Implied nifty indicating to flat to lower start in the early minutes of trade

00:02:01 Lots of cues that will be tracking in the world's are going to be company specific

00:02:05 But just take you through the broader market setup

00:02:08 Remember the nifty and the sensex ended Friday in the green the nifty 50 closed at twenty one thousand seven hundred and ten

00:02:15 The sensex ended at seventy two thousand sixty five

00:02:18 Bunch of counters that were in focus and of course, they will continue to remain in focus in today's day of trade as well

00:02:25 Real estate was the biggest talking point all through Thursday and Friday

00:02:29 That sector has seen enormous amount of buying with the realty by gaining over 5% in Friday's day of trade

00:02:35 Stock specific action will be monitored across that sector too. But for the month if you look at nifty realty

00:02:42 It's actually not done too much. But in the last two days, you've seen a massive pullback playing out for the real estate back

00:02:47 Well moving on from there the broader markets

00:02:50 Continue to outperform the benchmark in trade over the last few days

00:02:54 So you've had the mid cap in the small cap index going home with gains outperforming the nifty 50 itself

00:03:00 In terms of positive triggers and this is what bulls may be taking heart from is the fact that the Wicks index is actually eased

00:03:06 By 5% to go back to levels that are a lot more comfortable for traders who are bulls

00:03:10 to levels of

00:03:12 12.63 this happened on Friday and the PCR though on the other hand has risen above levels of 1%

00:03:18 To move to levels of 1.2 to big earnings is going to be on tap

00:03:22 So Infosys and TCS so it stocks will be in focus on back of those two big earnings that kick off the earning season on

00:03:28 Thursday

00:03:29 But apart from that you might see a whole bunch of banks that may continue

00:03:33 To remain an important talking point on back of business updates coming in from whole bunch of banks and trade

00:03:38 Remember with Bank Nifty the frontline banking names haven't participated on Thursday and Friday

00:03:43 What you saw was activity in action across the PSU names in trade

00:03:46 Stocks with high delivery. We had max financial ICICI prudential and TVS motor. So watch out for these counters

00:03:53 These were stocks that saw high cash buying in trade will remain in focus this morning as well

00:03:58 So all in all the manna it's going to be volatile. It's going to be in a tight range

00:04:02 Sure, global cues is what we've not really been reacting to over the last few days, but important data points back home as well

00:04:08 So you've got CPI earnings. It's gonna be a busy week

00:04:11 I think after today and tomorrow markets will go into trading activity, which should be earnings related

00:04:16 Absolutely a busy week and also, you know one more data point

00:04:19 I just want to bring to the table when you're figuring out what kind of a day of trade is

00:04:23 What kind of foreign fund flows you're seeing so on Friday FBI's for example bought about

00:04:29 100 crores 1696 crores to be precise and DIA sold about

00:04:33 3497 crores, but if you pull out the first week data for 2024, that's an interesting pattern which develops

00:04:41 foreign investors have bought about

00:04:44 4700 crores while DIA's have sold in the first week about

00:04:49 7296 crore rupees so that's one thing to watch out for

00:04:55 Let's look at some specific stocks because you know, we're going to talk about the overall

00:05:00 Economy and that picture in a few minutes from now remember advanced GDP estimates for there

00:05:05 But let's start from with some specific stocks

00:05:08 Sabina Titan definitely one which is on the radar

00:05:12 Their q3 updates are there and as we've been saying the story is all about the q3 updates right now

00:05:17 Titan q3 updates were actually quite heartening and there's good city note on it as well

00:05:23 So the jewelry division has grown about 23% year-on-year versus 11% growth in q3 FY 23

00:05:30 So big bump up in the jewelry division and q2 growth was 19% growth in gold higher than studied

00:05:38 So that's implying some

00:05:40 extent of margin pressure as far as Titan is concerned

00:05:44 But you also have to remember this quarter is traditionally good for the business. You have wedding season, etc

00:05:50 Other segment performance watches and wearables have grown 21%

00:05:54 Emerging businesses have grown just 24% but eyewear has seen some degrowth of

00:06:00 3% so Titan will be one to watch out for Tata Steel's another one that we should quickly talk about q3 updates the output

00:06:09 India Steel output is at 5.3 2 million tons

00:06:13 That's up about 6% year-on-year while deliveries were up 10% year-on-year

00:06:18 So the commodity space anyway one on the radar and Tata Steel

00:06:22 Specifically as JVN is another one that I would talk about green energy

00:06:28 SUVs green energy unit has signed power usage agreement with the Uttarakhand Power Corporation to supply 200 megawatts of solar power

00:06:36 from the under construction

00:06:38 Thousand megawatts beacon air power sector again one which has definitely been hot and PPCL is the other one

00:06:46 It's been raised to overweight by JP Morgan with a target price of

00:06:50 615 rupees

00:06:53 What's on your radar? It's Amina a couple of business updates at the man

00:06:56 So you've got a whole bunch of those that are coming through as we speak

00:07:00 But we'll take you through what we have from the consumption space

00:07:02 Adani Wilma once again recorded the best ever volume during the third quarter

00:07:08 Festive and wedding season demand is what's contributed to growth

00:07:12 So just like Titan very similar trend across the whole consumption pack

00:07:15 Adani will more reporting one of its best months ever on

00:07:19 rather best quarters ever the stock will be one to watch out for it's been a

00:07:23 Top performer over the last couple of weeks may continue to see the buying emerging in today's day of trade

00:07:28 You've also got Marico revenues for this one were down to a low single digit

00:07:33 But what we did see on the flip was margin expansion

00:07:36 So gross margins have actually expanded despite revenue growth not coming as much or as high as the street would have liked

00:07:44 You also had PCL industries to watch out for remember this counter is going to be one to watch out for we will be trying

00:07:51 We will try and connect to the management at some stage in the day

00:07:55 It went home with very massive gains and this largely came in on back of the ethanol price hike

00:08:00 That was announced by OMC's on the 5th of Jan

00:08:04 Prices have been raised by 5.7 9 per liter for maize sourced ethanol

00:08:10 Hikes to impact 70% of the company's ethanol supplies

00:08:14 So remember a large chunk of their business comes in from ethanol with an increase in price

00:08:19 Your top line will be aided and margins also will improve substantially for BCL on back of which the counter is seen a big rally

00:08:26 Already on Friday may continue to see some buying in today's day of trade as well

00:08:31 Now moving on from there. You've got some activity that is happening in the primary markets as well

00:08:36 You've got one big listing. I'm not going to call it big. It's actually just a listing

00:08:40 Kaushalya logistics will list on the exchanges today at 75 rupees per share

00:08:45 It's a smallish IPO to the tune of 36.6 crores

00:08:49 but it had an overwhelming response from investors and was subscribed nearly

00:08:53 365 times from the 29th of December to the 1st of Jan

00:08:57 Apart from that moving on from the NSC on the cross the small and mid-cap exchanges

00:09:02 You've got four companies that will be coming in to raise money

00:09:05 1100 crore rupees is what these four companies will cumulatively be raising from the exchanges. So that's really what we have

00:09:11 It's going to be a busy morning

00:09:13 But I'm guessing the macro is also in focus this morning

00:09:17 Sure before we get to that Samina just an eye on some brokerage reports this morning that we should talk about and a couple

00:09:24 Of them from city. So cities report on Steel Authority of India. They've maintained a sell rating at

00:09:30 80

00:09:32 Rupees target. So that's one to watch out for let's pull up. What's a sale has been doing? Yeah

00:09:38 Oh, that's big cut that they're saying they're saying India steel prices do have downside risk of China

00:09:43 And sale is anyway trading at a discount to other larger peers low valuations have been offset by low

00:09:51 ROE expectations of 3% versus 8 to 18 percent for

00:09:55 Peers and the key upside risk they see is higher than expected steel prices and higher volumes

00:10:02 So that's not very good news. Even an Aurobindo pharma city has a sell rating this morning with a target price of 940

00:10:09 Wow, so that's quite a cut from where Auropharma is right now

00:10:13 They're saying that the stock is up 23% in three months and 6% in one month on rerating of the market and sector

00:10:20 But the reason why they've done that is that they expect positive earning surprises in near term, but don't see a material

00:10:26 Improvement in the US genetic market

00:10:28 valuations factor in near to medium term earning

00:10:31 Levels already. I'll just add city on Adani ports where they've maintained a buy rating and a revised target price of

00:10:40 1368

00:10:42 That's up from their previous target of 1213 at the stock. Of course at 1154 right now

00:10:48 They're saying that this opens a positive catalyst watch as the company remains a top pick and they expect strong volume growth in port

00:10:55 cargo rail container and

00:10:57 GPWIS in the third quarter coming up the consolidated EBITDA and PAT growth of

00:11:03 49 and 70 percent

00:11:05 Respectively expected year on year the big primer, of course in which we're seeing across the Adani stocks is that

00:11:13 You know your legal matters seem to be behind them and have settled

00:11:18 That means you're going to see good cash flows and improving leverage should drive stock performance as well

00:11:23 Attractive valuations given high quality business and favorable valuations within the industry. So those are some to watch

00:11:29 As is LIC which has seen an upgrade by MK at

00:11:34 975 so that's a good one. And this is something that we've been talking about

00:11:39 The stock has given a 35% return since November 23 and their multiple tailwinds that the brokerage sees to help sustain share price

00:11:47 out performance driven by valuations EV growth new product offerings and step up in

00:11:53 Dividend but I think the standout right now Samina and you were talking about some of those stocks as well is

00:11:59 The weakness in the FMCG space and you spoke about Marico

00:12:04 Go through consumer brokerage notes also seem to be talking about it that rural

00:12:08 Uptake is still not coming in and that's going to continue to be a bit of a concern

00:12:14 It is it is showing green shoots

00:12:15 But yes, not enough to sustain the kind of euphoria that some of these stocks have seen

00:12:20 Also worth noting is that you had some macro data that you want to watch out for the GDP estimates

00:12:26 That also indicating that private consumption still seems to be a weak spot. So there's a lot of moving parts markets member have

00:12:33 Most people believe have run ahead on themselves

00:12:36 but another important news trigger that could probably be viewed positively is that

00:12:40 India has risen to the second spot in the MSCI emerging market index

00:12:45 Remember it has gone up its share in the MSCI emerging index has gone from 7% to 17.1%

00:12:52 on back of strong domestic institutional investments and

00:12:57 Potentially steady fi flows coming in India potentially could surpass a 20% weight in the MSCI emerging index as

00:13:05 Early as this year at the start of this year

00:13:08 Remember China is the number one

00:13:10 Country in terms of market share on the MSCI emerging index followed by Taiwan Taiwan now being replaced by India

00:13:17 Big sort of news because this is euphoric

00:13:20 We will try and get some report analysis on that report from our team in just a few minutes

00:13:26 But remember Jeffries as well has suggested that India is poised to attract foreign investments in

00:13:31 2024 in the medium term India's positioning in the EM portfolio remains relatively light

00:13:38 But it's growing size is making its markets even more relevant

00:13:41 Tamanna this was interesting because we did to have a chat with a couple of guests over the weekend and

00:13:45 Everyone said India is no more an exotic play

00:13:48 It's not like a country that you need to just be allocated to because it's exotic

00:13:52 We have become a basket case in the emerging market basket, right? So and I think that is where

00:13:58 Markets or brokerages are taking heart from and that could justify why we are expecting 2024 to still see inflow of funds

00:14:06 Just on back despite despite valuations being stretched at the stage. Absolutely. I I don't know

00:14:11 I would take umbrage if anyone called us exotic

00:14:14 Strange

00:14:17 Connotations there, so definitely not exotic but it's a very clear case looking at what's happening to China

00:14:22 This is the market where you're going to be as the China story continues to falter

00:14:29 But the question is that is the Indian economy going to keep pace and I'm coming to an important bit of data that we saw

00:14:36 Over the weekend, which is advanced GDP estimates now just to quickly put into context that

00:14:43 Advanced estimates for GDP. This is the first estimate. So there will be a second one and then the final number that you will get

00:14:50 you know post the interim budgets for the end of March or so and

00:14:55 That has shown that India is going to grow in FY 24 much faster than was expected

00:15:03 In fact, we'll have a conversation on that in just a few minutes from now

00:15:06 So this is what those estimates say that India's GDP will grow by seven point three percent in the current financial year

00:15:13 slightly faster than the seven point two percent growth in

00:15:16 2022-23

00:15:19 and

00:15:20 most observers

00:15:22 Including the RBI expected that we will decelerate this year. So you have beaten those estimates by a far stretch

00:15:29 That's an important part of the story

00:15:31 but a

00:15:33 Couple of things to note agriculture has not been doing too well and we'll pull up those figures the agri sector has slid

00:15:39 Compared to before so one point eight percent is the growth expected in this financial year versus four percent in FY 23

00:15:47 So that's where we have slid back

00:15:49 Manufacturing has come back in a big way and that's important

00:15:52 That's some sucker over there and but private consumption on the other hand continues to be a bit of a concern

00:16:01 on the

00:16:03 GDP front

00:16:04 So those are the two big lingering concerns that we need to talk about at this point and we'll come to it in

00:16:10 Just a bit. Yeah, in fact talking about those GDPs numbers Tamanna. It's I think also important to know that

00:16:17 manufacturing

00:16:19 Deacceleration is a concern even though it has still been expatriate the trend remember is on the in the declining side

00:16:28 Well, you've also got Capex now watch out for that one because government Capex continues to remain high

00:16:33 Private Capex is where there is a little bit of a struggle that we are seeing so in

00:16:39 Comparative basis government spending still taking the lead from the front. Well, if I 24s

00:16:45 Also, there are reports suggesting that f5 25

00:16:48 Nominal GDP estimates are likely to be set at 10.5 percent

00:16:53 F 5 24 is already undershooting the 10% target

00:16:57 It'd be interesting to know how confident economists are that reaching these higher targets is just

00:17:03 An idea for now or our realistic targets that we are setting out for ourselves

00:17:08 Well, we've also got a couple of other stocks that we'll track but in the interim

00:17:13 I'm gonna quickly toss it over to Alex for editors cut Alex. Thanks so much

00:17:18 I mean a for that in fact on today's editors cut we're dealing with a couple of

00:17:22 stories the first relates to the latest update from the regulator the SEBI that

00:17:28 Talks about short selling is there really anything that you need to know about that is new in the latest update or is this?

00:17:36 Essentially business as usual Sajid will tell you about some of that and then we'll focus in on the jewelry companies led by

00:17:43 Titan of course, you've got the latest business updates and that indicates that growth is stronger than ever

00:17:49 So we'll talk about some of the nitty-gritties there, but let's start with the first conversation, which is short sellers

00:17:55 I've heard it being described on social media Sajid as a nothing burger. Is that true? That's true because

00:18:02 It's basically a circular that came in 2007 when the entire short selling would put in place

00:18:07 For all kind of investors, but it was accompanied by something called the stock lending and borrowing mechanism

00:18:14 So any investor whether retail or HMI or institutions can do a short sale provided they have borrowed

00:18:21 The stock and then they have done it. So it means it has to be accompanied by an SLBM mechanism

00:18:27 Which hasn't picked up much but they off late there has been some kind of transition where we have seen over 100 125 stocks

00:18:34 Where we have seen?

00:18:36 Lending happening for those stocks

00:18:38 It also requires a good institutional mechanism before a short sale can be done because you need to borrow

00:18:44 the institution and then deliver the stock so that it the custodians can do it the delivery and

00:18:51 As in when and there is a charge which has been given so many of the institutions which are holding stocks for long term period

00:18:57 They can get additional returns based on the lending that they do of the stocks which is there

00:19:03 But interestingly, I want to bring in the SLBM here

00:19:06 while the

00:19:08 Notification on Friday was just a reiteration and maybe they must have missed out one or two points and they've been putting it back to

00:19:14 the master circular the SLBM or the stock lending and borrowing mechanism is now

00:19:20 evolving into a

00:19:21 Good mechanism here because if I look at some of the stocks which are be there, you know, you have nearly 4 million

00:19:27 Shares which are outstanding for IDFC first you have a you bank where 3 million stock shares are active

00:19:35 Outstanding jubilant food Colgate Pamela of Tata comm mind remainder finance motors fin

00:19:41 You know Mahindra and Mahindra Tata cam and Tata consumer

00:19:45 so these are some of the mostly its financial stocks where you don't get to

00:19:49 do much because

00:19:52 especially some of them are in a small bank or

00:19:56 Where the FI holding is much higher so they have taken a counter position by

00:20:00 shorting the stock and then borrowing in

00:20:03 You know lending it for the settlement, but it is emerging into a big thing

00:20:11 Something which I think the market will now

00:20:13 Look at it because in the context of how it has moved over the last one year one year back. It wasn't so big

00:20:20 Now it's so but naked shorts were not allowed

00:20:24 Never allowed

00:20:26 But now what I was reading is that there is something related to the disclosure if you are borrowing too short

00:20:33 Is that new it's also old one

00:20:36 One where if you're going to do a short you need to inform in advance that it's a short position

00:20:42 so that the custodians are aware that you're going to you know borrow from one of the

00:20:46 Lenders or you know one of the

00:20:50 institutions and then supply the stocks because the settlement doesn't change just because you've done a short you have to supply the

00:20:57 Stock here either you do it from your

00:21:01 Portfolio or you borrow it from someone someone else who is willing to lend you for the fee. I'm your reading nothing changes

00:21:08 No, not really

00:21:10 But you know Alex among the names that Sajeev spoke about first thing interesting is that we are at life highs right now

00:21:16 And I'm going to I'm going to start wondering now if we are actually going to see an increase in the number of stocks

00:21:22 Which are in SLBM. Sajeev just mentioned a handful of stocks

00:21:24 But from what we understand is about a hundred and fifty stocks where it has been SLBM

00:21:29 Secondly in the futures and options space we need to see if there are significant amount of shorts

00:21:34 Which have also built up in these stocks, you know

00:21:37 That could in fact give you a reasonable expectation at least from the people who are holding these positions

00:21:43 Shorts in cash and shorts in the futures and options space thirdly

00:21:47 Also want to take a look at whether or not any of these stocks are in the F&O band

00:21:52 If they are in the F&O band, you're not going to be able to carry on positions

00:21:55 Which which means that you may want to in fact take positions in cash as well to go short last interpretation

00:22:02 and then we'll move quickly to the jewelry conversation, but if

00:22:04 the market is aware of if people are aware that there are certain number of short positions and

00:22:10 Essentially who was taken them? Yeah

00:22:13 would there be a

00:22:15 Possibility of squeezes taking place because you have the you have the knowledge that there are certain number of short 100% Alex

00:22:22 It is a very dangerous position. And yes, a squeeze is always possible

00:22:27 Especially when you already have significant amount of shorts in SLBM as well as futures and you know

00:22:33 We tend to think that it's the cash markets that drive things

00:22:37 But it's not always the case if you do see attraction in the future space as well

00:22:42 You could in fact precipitate the covering in your cash markets as well

00:22:46 So it's a you know

00:22:47 It's kind of coupled that if you have stock is in a ban in F&O and they're not able to take fresh positions

00:22:53 You can easily go into cash market do a short and cover use it

00:22:57 Using a lending mechanism or borrow the stock and do the shorts there

00:23:02 So it is now getting coupled in such a way that you know

00:23:06 It didn't maybe in some kind of you know

00:23:09 A new market which has been developed in because now you have or you have lots of institutions now

00:23:16 No lending stocks there, but you need to see what is the kind of carry fees?

00:23:21 Which which which has been allowed and how it's moving that point, you know

00:23:25 I understand for a few of our viewers that this is going to be a little bit of a technical conversation

00:23:30 So if you've got specific questions on this

00:23:32 Let us know in the comment section or indeed on the whatsapp number and in fact

00:23:36 We will do a special session with both Agam and possibly nearest and Sajid as well to tell you what this is all about

00:23:41 For now, let's shift to the jewelry conversation strong numbers Agam

00:23:46 I think the the question is whether or not and a lot of

00:23:49 Brokerages also coming out to say hey these companies are good to buy even at these levels

00:23:54 Right are the valuation stretched at all is a question, but you're so you know Alex. We're talking about Titan in this case specifically

00:24:00 Yeah, evaluation always always been stressed correct and but the truth is that Titan keeps coming up to back those valuations, right?

00:24:08 We continue to think that where does Titan get its growth from if the market is actually actually saturated

00:24:14 But we have to also understand that there is a very very large

00:24:17 Unorganized market out there and that's where Titan is taking advantage of which means that there is space for not only

00:24:25 Titan to grow but a lot of its peers as well

00:24:27 Hence a lot of its peers in the jewelry segment are also doing well now

00:24:32 You know after Titan now people tend to start thinking about Kalyan jewelers as well because the business models are slightly

00:24:37 similar Titan specifically we've seen about a 23% growth indicated in the quarterly update coming through and

00:24:44 besides that

00:24:46 about three years ago

00:24:48 70% of its revenues came from the jewelry segment at the moment. I'm looking at the first half revenues

00:24:54 It's nearly 90% nearly 90% and it's doing it's doing well

00:24:59 You know at least in terms of growth even after I had the size at which Titan is

00:25:04 Currently if at that point in time it still comes up with a 20% growth and year-on-year basis and mind you in the last

00:25:10 quarter that is a

00:25:13 in

00:25:14 Third quarter fi23 it's all about 11% growth that this time around it's seeing a 23% growth

00:25:21 So this is on a reasonably high base. Of course, we must remember that

00:25:24 you know, there was a little bit of a delay when it comes to festive sales in this particular quarter and

00:25:30 That also combined with the jewelry segment. Pardon me the wedding season which also came together

00:25:36 Which is why potentially why Titan has maybe seen a slightly better than expected, you know quarter coming through

00:25:42 very quickly to

00:25:44 Compare Titan with respect to the other listed players and you see that despite its despite the size

00:25:51 Titan still has a superiority and a lot of brackets out there

00:25:55 So even in the past three years it has seen the most amount of growth in terms of its earnings

00:26:00 37% CAGR as against something like a Kalyan, Tangamayil or a Senko all of them having similar business models and

00:26:08 Not as good as Titan

00:26:10 Even in terms of margins the jewelry margins are much higher as compared to its peers as you can see on your screen there

00:26:17 In fact double digit margins for Titan as compared to Senko Kalyan and Tangamayil coming on valuations

00:26:23 Of course Titan is expensive

00:26:25 It's and I reckon that to a certain extent a lot of well

00:26:30 You know analysts believe that this is going to remain expensive because of the kind of superiority it has in several other metrics

00:26:36 And even in terms of the premium segment it rules the roost and you know

00:26:41 There there will be a little bit of catch-up with respect to the other

00:26:44 Jewelry players, but for now, of course, you know Titan is a clear winner. Oh, absolutely

00:26:49 alright, so I think that's more or less a comprehensive view on the jewelry space and if anything is a stamp of

00:26:56 acceptance on and Titans performance certainly its

00:26:59 Valuations are being backed by a performance. Let us know what you think and if you hold Titan as well

00:27:05 We've got lots lined up in just a bit and we're talking about the major cues from the F&O space in just a bit

00:27:11 So do stay tuned

00:27:13 you

00:27:15 you

00:27:17 You

00:27:19 You

00:27:21 You

00:27:23 You

00:27:25 You

00:27:28 You

00:27:30 You

00:27:32 You

00:27:34 You

00:27:36 You

00:27:38 You

00:27:40 You

00:27:42 You

00:27:44 You

00:27:46 You

00:27:48 You

00:27:50 You

00:27:52 You

00:27:54 You

00:27:56 You

00:27:58 You

00:28:00 You

00:28:02 You

00:28:04 You

00:28:06 You

00:28:08 You

00:28:10 You

00:28:12 You

00:28:14 You

00:28:16 You

00:28:18 You

00:28:20 You

00:28:22 You

00:28:24 You

00:28:26 You

00:28:28 You

00:28:30 You

00:28:32 You

00:28:34 You

00:28:36 You

00:28:38 You

00:28:40 You

00:28:42 You

00:28:44 You

00:28:46 You

00:28:48 You

00:28:50 You

00:28:52 You

00:28:54 You

00:28:56 You

00:28:58 You

00:29:00 You

00:29:02 You

00:29:04 You

00:29:06 You

00:29:08 You

00:29:10 You

00:29:12 You

00:29:14 You

00:29:16 You

00:29:18 You

00:29:20 You

00:29:22 You

00:29:24 You

00:29:26 You

00:29:28 You

00:29:30 You

00:29:32 You

00:29:34 You

00:29:36 You

00:29:38 You

00:30:06 Welcome back. You're watching India Market Open. Let's take a look at the top headlines

00:30:10 at this hour. Global Q's tilt towards risk-off, bond yields rise past 4% as US jobs data pours

00:30:17 cold water on rate-cut hopes. Back home, the focus shifts to results as IT majors kick

00:30:22 off the earnings season. Saudi Arabia has cut oil prices to Asia as weakness in demand

00:30:28 persists and China announces fresh sanctions against five US companies in response to the

00:30:35 latest arms sales deal to Taiwan. The Maldives government on Sunday suspends three of its

00:30:41 ministers after they shared offensive remarks against Prime Minister Modi on his Lakshmideep

00:30:46 visit on social media. In fact, East My Trip has cancelled all visits and all bookings

00:30:52 for Maldives. So, in case you're thinking of a holiday, not yet. And maybe Lakshmideep

00:30:57 is a better choice. But meanwhile, let's take a look at what's happening in the F&O segment.

00:31:02 Actually, no holiday mood there. No, no, no, absolutely none. None whatsoever. Prep

00:31:07 for the big numbers coming out later this week. Are you seeing some of that nervousness?

00:31:11 Yes, absolutely, Tamanna. That's going to be the focus. It's going to be all about earnings.

00:31:16 And markets and market participants have been just a bit circumspect when it comes to how

00:31:21 things will pan out over the course of the next one week. And that would perhaps set

00:31:27 us and give us an idea about what kind of an earnings season we can expect. That said,

00:31:32 for the past couple of days, we have seen the Nifty advance. And while we are expecting

00:31:36 the Nifty to remain range bound, the range is going to be about a 500 point range. So,

00:31:42 that's going to be on the higher end, 22,000, where we were likely to see a little more

00:31:46 traction coming through and a little bit of resistance. But as far as Friday is concerned,

00:31:52 we did see open interest move up by around 2%. And as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned,

00:31:59 once again, we saw a lot of unwinding. So, there was a little bit of nervousness. The

00:32:04 Bank Nifty underperformed the Nifty. And we also saw positions being squared off on Friday.

00:32:10 Of course, we will see an increase in this number as we move into the new week. And we're

00:32:14 going to have to wait and watch. But as long as the Bank Nifty stays above 48,000, well,

00:32:20 we're going to – the markets are going to be – rather remain positive, at least on

00:32:26 the Bank Nifty. What happened on Friday was a little more

00:32:29 writing around the 21,800 mark, both in calls and puts. And because there was a lot of consolidation,

00:32:37 that is what we are expecting going into the next few weeks as well. The expectation is

00:32:42 that the Nifty remains range bound while we start getting some traction with respect to

00:32:46 earnings. And of course, later on in the week, that is Thursday and Friday, which is going

00:32:51 to be a new series, new weekly series. That's where we start getting the Nifty to react

00:32:56 to the information technology earnings. Let's take a look at the open interest distribution

00:33:03 as a whole and see where in fact we are looking at the Nifty range within. So, while we do

00:33:10 have a little more when it comes to your open interest as far as the 21,800 call is concerned,

00:33:17 on the lower end, we continue to see more traction around the 21,500 put. So, 300-point

00:33:22 range, but as I said that 21,800 is not as much of an obstacle as much as the 22,000

00:33:28 mark is. Finally, coming down to stocks, let's pull

00:33:31 up that list as well. A lot of shorts building up in Nestle, Shree Cement, Kotak Mandir Bank

00:33:35 and Alkim Laboratories. And in terms of those stocks we saw unwinding, let's put that list

00:33:40 up as well, longs unwinding in GNFC, Charmel Fertilizers, Oberoi Realty, Gujarat Gas, along

00:33:46 with India Cement. That's as far as the futures and options space is concerned, but what do

00:33:50 our experts make of these skews and where do we go from here? We have Amit Goel, he's

00:33:55 joining us on the show right now to take us through all that we can expect going forth.

00:34:00 Amit, good morning and thank you so much for joining in. Well, let's start off with your

00:34:04 view on the indices as usual. How do you see things panning out, especially considering

00:34:10 we have earnings lined up, big earnings lined up a little later on in this week?

00:34:14 Yeah, good morning, Agam. A very good morning to all your viewers. Thank you for having

00:34:20 me back. We began the new year with a bang. We made a new all-time high on the first day

00:34:26 of this year, but we were not able to sustain it. However, Nifty continued to fall down

00:34:32 from there and found the support in the latter half of this week, of the previous week, and

00:34:37 is now likely to be in a range till we get a clear direction before the results. So the

00:34:44 trade here would be, you could set up an iron condor by selling the 21,400-500 puts and

00:34:54 look to sell the 21,950 or 22,000 calls and buy the hedges for that.

00:35:02 Right. That's as far as your view on the benchmarks are concerned, Amit, but I believe you have

00:35:09 an idea on two stocks. Let's start off with the one which you have on State Bank of India.

00:35:14 Can you take us through that?

00:35:15 Yeah, before I speak on State Bank of India, Agam, a little bit on Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty

00:35:20 was the weaker of the two. From a weekly perspective, both indices had formed DOJs, which is a classic

00:35:28 sign-off indecision at the top. I don't think the market is going to take a clear direction

00:35:33 before the results are out. And I believe the major heavyweight results are likely to

00:35:38 be from Thursday onwards, Infosys and TCS being the ones. So I feel that the next three

00:35:45 trading sessions are going to be likely to be in the range bound. Bank Nifty, being the

00:35:51 weaker of the two, even the open interest is a little unclear in terms of its distribution

00:35:56 of the open interest is much more evenly spread out. So I don't really find a very clear direction

00:36:02 on Bank Nifty. However, I find that 48,000 would act as a nice support since we have

00:36:08 seen the market take support last two trading sessions from that level. Having said that,

00:36:13 I believe Bank Nifty and IT Index should lead the charge on the upfront. I feel that the

00:36:20 market is likely to continue on the upfront. Having said that, my picks would be SBI and

00:36:26 ICC Bank over the next positional view. From that, I like SBI the most because it had broken

00:36:36 out out of a triangle formation on the weekly time frame in the early part of December and

00:36:41 has given a handsome return from there. Right now on the daily time frame, it has formed

00:36:46 what is known as a pull and a pennant pattern, which is a classic sign of consolidation before

00:36:52 the next leg of up move or the continuation. For that, I would say that we would look to

00:36:58 buy at 637 levels and keeping a stop loss at 627 and a target of 660. For our F&O friends,

00:37:05 we could convert this trade into a bull put spread by selling the 630 put, buying the

00:37:10 620 put. Right. And what is the other idea that you

00:37:16 have for us this morning? So as is my practice, I give you, I always

00:37:21 try to give you a long and a short flavor. I see a weakness and the continued weakness

00:37:26 in Maruti. The bearishness is likely to continue in this counter. It was not able to sustain

00:37:31 the new all time high it made in the last month. And however, I feel that Maruti might

00:37:39 find support at 9600, 300 levels. But till then, the journey is still likely to be on

00:37:46 the downside. Given that view, I have planned a bear call spread. Given the high implied

00:37:51 volatility levels, we would look to sell the 10,200 call and buy the hedge of 10,500, which

00:37:58 will give us a risk of 2000 rupees and a reward of 4500 rupees on this trade.

00:38:04 All right, Amit. Well, we'll continue to keep an eye on that one. Amit, thanks so much for

00:38:09 taking us through your views on the markets and also giving us one long and one short

00:38:13 idea. Of course, these are some very interesting plays and with relatively liquid counters

00:38:18 that we're talking about, State Bank of India along with Maruti Suzuki. Keep an eye on that.

00:38:22 Amit, thank you so much for taking us through that one. And well, so Samina, besides these,

00:38:28 naturally, we're going to keep an eye on several sectors which are coming up with the earnings

00:38:31 as well. Indeed, in fact, IT, we've got TCS emphasis

00:38:35 on Thursday, but more importantly, all these stocks did quite well on Friday itself. So

00:38:40 there was buying in the early part of the first few days last week, then they sold off

00:38:44 and now the buying is back. What are traders doing? Are they sort of loading up positions

00:38:49 as we go into earnings? Right. So we do know that this is going to

00:38:52 be not a very important quarter when it comes to expectations from the information technology

00:38:58 sector because, well, as far as the sentiment is concerned, it's been subdued. Besides that,

00:39:03 seasonally, it's a relatively small quarter because of the furloughs in this particular

00:39:07 quarter. So it's not going to be as much about the information technology earnings as much

00:39:14 as it's going to be about the kind of commentary that can come through or from these tech companies.

00:39:20 If we can quite quickly pull up what's happening in terms of positioning with respect to TCS

00:39:25 and Infosys, I'll talk about just these two because these are the largest companies and

00:39:29 they have the most amount of traction and they, in fact, have a lot of options activity

00:39:33 as well. So as far as TCS is concerned, we saw unwinding last Friday, but I reckon that

00:39:39 we will start seeing a lot more in terms of increase in positions as we move into trade

00:39:43 this week. As far as Infy is concerned as well, and let's pull up Infosys, not unlike

00:39:49 TCS, we have seen unwinding as far as your index futures are concerned, but a lot of

00:39:54 activity will not start building up around the options segment. We must also remember

00:40:00 that as these companies come up with earnings on Thursday, we will start seeing a lot of

00:40:07 options writing around Tuesday and Wednesday in order to take advantage of the collapse

00:40:14 in volatility after the earnings come through. So these are some of the most popular strategies

00:40:20 that a lot of traders work with and this, of course, notwithstanding the large price

00:40:26 movements, a lot of traders would want to take advantage of the fall in the volatility

00:40:33 component. So keep an eye on that one and of course, like I said, it won't be as much

00:40:38 about the earnings as much as it will be about the outlook going forward.

00:40:41 Thank you, Agam. It is about the outlook whether or not things are bottoming for the IT pack.

00:40:46 I think the markets are priced in a weak quarter in terms of reporting, but commentary is what's

00:40:51 going to be critical for the emphasis on the TCS of the world to set out. Well, talking

00:40:58 about outlooks, we've had a bunch of companies from the consumption space report their business

00:41:03 updates. So Titan, Marico, Adani Wilmer, Godej Consumers, Nika will be in focus on back of

00:41:11 this quarterly business updates. Mahima joins in with more on that. Mahima, rural consumption

00:41:17 still a weak spot for most of these consumption names, right? Right. Right. So as you rightly

00:41:23 mentioned, rural consumption still remains as the dark spot for all these consumer based

00:41:28 companies. Talking about individual companies and their business updates, Titan, the company

00:41:33 reported 22 percent revenue growth year on year and they've added around 90 stores in

00:41:38 Q3. All their segments, except for their iCare segment performed well, their iCare segment

00:41:43 declined by 3 percent. Then we had Marico where the company's Q3 consolidated revenue

00:41:48 declined to a low single digit year on year basis growth. And however, it saw a robust

00:41:54 growth in their margins because of the decline in the raw materials. But overall, if we see

00:41:58 the domestic volumes also grew in single digits and international volumes also grow in mid

00:42:02 single digit levels. Then we had Godej Consumers where the company reported a double digit

00:42:07 volume growth in India. In Africa, US and Middle East, they saw high single digit sales

00:42:12 decline and Latin America saw positive volume growth. But overall for GCPL, the Q3 sales

00:42:18 was pretty much at a very flat level. Then we had Adani Wilmar where sales declined 15

00:42:24 percent year on year. However, in terms of volume, it did perform pretty well. The edible

00:42:30 sales declined by 21 percent and the FMCG sector for Adani Wilmar played a very big

00:42:37 role where the sales grew by 28 percent and volumes grew by 18 percent. Then for NICA,

00:42:44 the underlying volume growth has been pretty healthy and consistent. And overall, in consolidated,

00:42:49 the net sales volumes will grow. They're expecting the net sales volume to grow in mid 20s and

00:42:55 revenue to grow low 20s on a y-based. And the BPC vertical is also expecting growth

00:43:01 in terms of year on year basis in terms of 20 percent. So overall, this is the business

00:43:07 update for the entire consumer segment where the business updates came in in the past few

00:43:12 days. All right. Thank you for that Mahima. And you know, I was just looking at some of

00:43:19 the brokerage reports Samina on these companies and we spoke a little bit earlier about the

00:43:24 advance estimates, the GDP estimates and at all times and if you look at it. So the agricultural

00:43:30 sectors contribution to the GDP in H2O has come down and in this financial year has come

00:43:36 down compared to FY23 and that's showing up. So let's take a look at what some of the brokerages

00:43:41 are saying on the specific stocks so we can tie up with your advance estimates at one

00:43:46 end, your business updates and how that's all looking for the FMCG space. So Nuvama,

00:43:51 for example, on GCPL says Latam and GAUM currency devaluations and planned destocking will be

00:44:00 keeping revenues flat. Look at Nuvama on Marico where they talk about domestic remains weak,

00:44:06 margins expand. They expect consolidated revenue to dip 2 percent year on year due to weakness

00:44:12 in volume and pricing. EBITDA is set to grow about 11 percent versus initial expectations

00:44:19 of 5 percent revenue growth and 11 percent EBITDA growth. So that's better. But domestic

00:44:24 business would log volume growth of only 1.5 percent year on year. So you are seeing some

00:44:31 weakness coming in on some of these counters. Let me talk about Citi on Titan as well. So

00:44:36 that's a different side of the story. Discretionary consumption is not doing too badly, but your

00:44:43 FMCG very base consumption is seeing a bit of a pinch. So if you look at Citi on Titan,

00:44:50 they've kept the target at 3,650 because valuations remain high. Of course, this is supported

00:44:56 by Titan's strong medium term business prospects. But downside risks exist in deterioration

00:45:04 of consumer sentiment or lower footfalls because Q3 is generally supposed to be a better period.

00:45:11 You've had wedding season, etc. So sharp movements in gold prices and adverse government impact

00:45:15 could be some of those risks. But let's take a look at some more companies which are on

00:45:20 the radar today. And Mehika is joining us with that list. Mehika. Yes. So first, I'll

00:45:25 start with the companies and focus on the back of, you know, auto wins. First, we have

00:45:29 Jupiter Wagons, which has received a 100 crore order win from a leading automobile manufacturer.

00:45:34 And this order is for the manufacture and supply of four rakes of double decker automobile

00:45:40 carrier wagons. And this is the first time that this kind of wagon is going to be introduced

00:45:45 to the Indian railways. And, you know, Jupiter Wagon has seen a pretty good inflow of orders.

00:45:50 It received a 473 crore order just on Jan 4th from the Ministry of Defense. And it also

00:45:55 received a letter of acceptance from the Ministry of Railways back in December for a contract

00:45:59 worth 1617 crores. And then we have SGVN, which has signed a power usage agreement with

00:46:06 Uttarakhand Power Corp. And this is for the supply of 200 megawatts solar power capacity

00:46:12 from the under construction Bikaner solar power project. Now, this project is still

00:46:17 under development and is going to be commissioned in April 2024. And the project cost is at

00:46:22 5491. Then we have HG Infra Engineering, which has received a letter from the North Central

00:46:28 Railways and has been appointed for the redevelopment project on an EPC mode. And this is the redevelopment

00:46:34 of the Kanpur Central Railway Station. And the project cost is at 655.099 crores. And

00:46:40 the project completion period is 36 months. And lastly, we have CIPLA, where we have two

00:46:45 developments. First is its UK subsidiary CIPLA EU has entered a JV agreement with Kemwell

00:46:51 Bioforma UK and M&I Ventures Mauritius. Now, they're going to incorporate a joint venture

00:46:55 company in the USA and it will commercialize novel cell therapy products in the USA, Japan

00:47:00 and EU region. And initial investment is of 0.41 million dollars. And post the initial

00:47:07 investment completion, CIPLA EU will hold 35.2% stake. And secondly, the subsidiary

00:47:13 CIPLA Technologies and Palmatrix have made amendments to a definitive agreement. Now,

00:47:18 this agreement was for the development and commercialization of a drug called Palmazol,

00:47:23 which is to treat ABPA, which is allergic reactions in asthma patients. And now the

00:47:28 two amendments made are first to terminate phase 2B clinical trial by 30th July 2024.

00:47:34 And the second one is that CIPLA will now have exclusive rights for the development

00:47:39 and the commercialization of the drug in all countries except the USA.

00:47:43 Thank you for that. There's a whole bunch of other names that are in focus this morning.

00:47:47 Quickly going to pull up HE Infra. This one, HE IEL, in fact, it's HE Infra Engineering

00:47:54 Limited. The stock is in the news this morning. It's actually been an underperformer, gross

00:47:59 underperformer over the last six month period. Remember, the company is an infrastructure

00:48:03 company based in Rajasthan, engaged in construction, development, designing and management of infra

00:48:09 projects. Unfortunately, though, the counter has sold off substantially over the last six

00:48:14 months, underperforming the sector and the markets. But however, a couple of brokerages

00:48:19 do have a buy call on this name on back of attractive valuation, strong growth opportunities

00:48:25 and company specific triggers like we just saw this morning and macroeconomic tailwinds.

00:48:29 So on back of that, this one could see a little bit of a positive pop in early trade on back

00:48:35 of the fact that it's sheer fact that it's underperformed over the last couple of months

00:48:39 and any sort of good news would be viewed well by the street.

00:48:42 Well, we also have Pragati now joining us with some more business updates. These largely

00:48:46 coming in from the financial space. Pragati, last week was busy with a whole bunch of PSU

00:48:51 banks reporting on their business updates. But I believe we've got some more this morning.

00:48:55 Yes. Hi. You're absolutely right. Last week was very busy. We had a couple of provisional

00:49:01 figures coming out in terms of the bank's third quarter earnings. But the latest ones

00:49:05 that came about on Friday evening after the market hours or after the market close was

00:49:11 Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India. And the trends that we are observing point to

00:49:16 something very similar that we've seen across other banks as well. If you look at Bank of

00:49:20 Baroda, the global business was up 10.7 percent year on year and the global advances and global

00:49:25 deposits were up 13.6 percent and 8.3 percent. Even in this bank, the advances growth outpaced

00:49:32 the growth of deposits, a trend that we also observing across other banks. As far as Union

00:49:37 Bank of India is concerned, the total advances were up 11.4 percent year on year. Deposits

00:49:42 were up 10.1 percent and the total business was up 10.7 percent year on year. For our

00:49:47 viewers, we also have the numbers flashing on our screen for them to have a look at.

00:49:51 But we must remember that these are the provisional figures and the actual numbers or the third

00:49:54 quarter earnings are yet to be out starting 16th of January. That's when the banking a

00:50:01 quarter three earnings kick off. Interestingly, apart from the third quarter earnings update,

00:50:06 we had a major update coming in on federal bank succession planning. Now, in November,

00:50:11 NDTV profit exclusively reported that Federal Bank has started discussions around succession

00:50:16 planning and was planning to apply for Shamshi Nivas in the current MD and CEOs extension

00:50:22 of tenure by one year on January. And that is on Friday. Last week, we got an update

00:50:28 officially from the bank in terms of the exchange filing that the bank has heard back from the

00:50:32 RBI in terms of the extension of Mr. Shamshi Nivas. And it has asked the bank to submit

00:50:38 the names of two fresh candidates for the role of the MD and CEO. Now, what exactly

00:50:42 happens in this thing? The RBI is 2021. April guidelines also come into play because according

00:50:48 to those guidelines, no MD or CEO, the same incumbent can handle or hold the office for

00:50:54 a period of more than 15 years. And in this case, Shamshi Nivas in his current tenure

00:51:00 as the MD and CEO will end in September 2024. That's when he completes 14 years as the bank's

00:51:06 MD and CEO. So that's the update that we have. As soon as we have more, we will come back

00:51:10 to you on that. All right. Thank you for that, Pragati. So

00:51:13 a whole slew of counters in focus, stocks in focus this morning. We've got you all of

00:51:19 those updates, but now let's get a view on how markets will open. Quick look at the GIFNIFTY

00:51:24 and the implied open also before we get into our conversation with Deven Choksi. We're

00:51:29 looking for a flat to negative start. Deven Choksi, Managing Director of DR Choksi Investment

00:51:34 Managers with us on the show today. Deven, bye. A very good morning. And thank you for

00:51:39 joining us on NDTV Profit. Always a pleasure to speak with you. Let me start with your

00:51:43 overview on what is going to be a very crucial week in terms of corporate news flow coming

00:51:48 in or focus on the results. And of course, the IT majors kick it off towards the end

00:51:53 of the week. Is that the big next big trigger point in your view?

00:51:58 Good morning. Well, I guess I think the IT companies are expected to be seen from the

00:52:07 point of view of announcement that they will be making in this particular result season.

00:52:11 While the result is not going to be exciting for at least some of the top IT companies

00:52:17 where the disemboweled quarter has possibly ended having largely on a flattish note, as

00:52:23 I see. But the fact remains that the higher amount of order inflow and the possibility

00:52:29 of the same is something which one is expecting all of the commentary coming from the IT majors.

00:52:36 Given the situation, very most of the global corporates are now trying to put in significant

00:52:42 amount of money behind the AI, AGI. Apart from putting money behind, I think, getting

00:52:49 into the cloud computing. I believe that this is going to be a time where probably IT companies

00:52:55 are to be seen with more confidence than what one has seen in 2023. Maybe in 24 and 25 years,

00:53:02 we are likely to see the larger amount of order impact for Indian IT companies because

00:53:07 of the change in the situation, particularly where the global corporates are willing to

00:53:13 spend money. These are what I think they refrain from doing it in 2022. To a greater extent,

00:53:19 I think it will be a commentary which will inspire more confidence than the results.

00:53:23 So in that context, Savinbhai, then would your large IT companies be better placed to

00:53:29 leverage those opportunities? If the street is going to look at who's best placed for

00:53:34 an AI, AGI kind of a big boost, what are the kind of companies you think will be the best

00:53:41 placed?

00:53:42 So I think we segregate this into two parts. The first part, I think, is those front-run

00:53:49 IT companies like Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech and Cognizant and Wipros. I think they are on

00:53:56 the one side who are having the generic platform which they are offering to different, different

00:54:00 verticals. And in turn, they get their orders for a little longer tenure. Infosys and TCS

00:54:08 are known for winning some of the large clients who are giving them 5 to 15 years worth of

00:54:13 visibility as far as the order book is concerned. And the size of the orders would be in the

00:54:18 vicinity of a billion dollars and above. So to a greater extent, I think they are the

00:54:23 one category of players who are going to be serving the larger corporates out there in

00:54:28 the global universe. On the other side, in the mid-tier segment, the companies which

00:54:32 are operating in a niche environment, say, for example, companies which are taking care

00:54:37 of the engineering and R&D segment, companies which are basically taking care of this niche

00:54:44 verticals like in aerospace, in automobiles, that is in transportations, even for that

00:54:49 matter in healthcare, the likes of L&T, IAEA, Mindtree or L&T Technology Services or Tata

00:54:57 Technology or even for that matter, Tata, Alex, CPIT kind of companies. They are on

00:55:03 the other side of that duty. The second part, I think, which I mentioned is relatively more

00:55:08 stronger. They are basically winning the contracts and winning the orders from the niche players

00:55:13 at the rate of around 20-25% rate of growth they are basically showing. Their frontline

00:55:19 peers are showing growth relatively smaller amount. To a greater extent, we'll have to

00:55:23 bifurcate between the two. Our confidence level would stay with the mid-tier IT companies

00:55:28 where they have got the niche player to offer. However, they are expensive. So, correct market

00:55:33 situation would make more sense. Infosys, TCS kind of company shows the signs of around

00:55:39 15% plus kind of appreciation over next 12 to 15 months' time. So, they would be certainly

00:55:43 looked at based on the commentary and the merits. Right. We're gearing up for pre-open

00:55:49 trade. Devane, stay with us. We'll come back and continue our conversation. Stay tuned.

00:55:54 Stay tuned.

00:55:56 Stay tuned.

00:55:58 Stay tuned.

00:56:00 Stay tuned.

00:56:02 Stay tuned.

00:56:04 Stay tuned.

00:56:06 Stay tuned.

00:56:08 Stay tuned.

00:56:10 Stay tuned.

00:56:12 Stay tuned.

00:56:14 Stay tuned.

00:56:16 Stay tuned.

00:56:18 Stay tuned.

00:56:20 Stay tuned.

00:56:22 Stay tuned.

00:56:24 Stay tuned.

00:56:26 Stay tuned.

00:56:28 Stay tuned.

00:56:30 Stay tuned.

00:56:32 Stay tuned.

00:56:34 Stay tuned.

00:56:36 (upbeat music)

00:56:39 (upbeat music)

00:56:41 (upbeat music)

00:56:44 (upbeat music)

00:56:46 (upbeat music)

00:56:49 (upbeat music)

00:56:52 (upbeat music)

00:56:54 (upbeat music)

00:57:20 (upbeat music)

00:57:22 - Welcome back, you're watching India Market Open.

00:57:34 We've got three minutes to go

00:57:35 as we gear up for pre-open trade.

00:57:36 It's gonna be a flat to slightly lower start,

00:57:39 at least that's what GIFNifty is indicating too.

00:57:42 Aditya Agarwal, Head of Research and Investments,

00:57:45 joins in now.

00:57:46 Aditya, good morning, thanks for joining in.

00:57:48 Aditya, we've had a pretty volatile week,

00:57:50 but in a tight range on the index.

00:57:52 We've respected the lows, attempted staying in those,

00:57:57 in that range really.

00:57:59 How are you playing Nifty this morning?

00:58:02 - Manisha, nice to be on the show.

00:58:05 It's more of a consolidation I would guess at the moment

00:58:08 that we are witnessing in the markets.

00:58:10 Important thing is in the recent correction,

00:58:13 Nifty took support at the previous highs,

00:58:15 and from there Nifty bounced back.

00:58:16 The last couple of trading sessions were decent,

00:58:19 I would say from a bulls perspective.

00:58:21 I would closely watch out for 21,750, 21,770.

00:58:26 That happens to be the immediate hurdle for the market.

00:58:28 If that is taken out and trade today or maybe this week,

00:58:31 I believe markets could head to new highs.

00:58:35 Volatility is there in the bank Nifty,

00:58:37 that is something that traders should closely monitor

00:58:40 because there's a lot of volatility

00:58:42 which is creeping into the large cap private sector banks.

00:58:46 So that is one space where if there's good opportunity,

00:58:49 one can actually look to go long on the bank Nifty.

00:58:52 And I believe you could see a bit of short covering rally

00:58:55 in the bank Nifty,

00:58:56 while Nifty could continue to consolidate

00:58:58 between 21,800 on the upside and 21,600 on the downside.

00:59:01 - Right.

00:59:04 Devin, how do you feel about the markets at whole?

00:59:08 Flows are looking good.

00:59:10 We're going into an earning season

00:59:12 which is expected to remain good actually.

00:59:15 I mean, India Inc did guide in the last quarter

00:59:17 that this quarter would be a strong one.

00:59:19 And more importantly, business updates largely have been

00:59:22 in line, if not better than expectation.

00:59:25 How would you strategize if you had to take a call

00:59:27 on the Nifty at this stage, Devin?

00:59:29 - Between the fundamentals and the market technicals,

00:59:35 the market technicals at this point of time

00:59:37 are having an age over fundamentals, I must say.

00:59:40 Not that the fundamentals are weak or anything.

00:59:44 The fact remains that most of the stocks

00:59:46 have risen the fundamentals very systematically

00:59:49 to coming at least for next,

00:59:51 I think 12 to 15 months period from here.

00:59:54 I don't see, I think many companies are not priced

00:59:59 at this particular development

01:00:00 that they are working on with.

01:00:02 As a result of which, I think the prices

01:00:04 of those companies have already been established,

01:00:07 discovered as I would call it.

01:00:09 What is driving the excitement in the market currently

01:00:12 is amount of money which is getting on two fronts.

01:00:16 On one end, you have got the liquidity coming in

01:00:18 from the local investors who are pumping in

01:00:21 around 17,500 crore worth of amount

01:00:24 through SIP to mutual funds.

01:00:26 Then comes insurance companies,

01:00:28 then comes provident fund companies.

01:00:29 And at the same time, the direct participants

01:00:32 like the family offices and the PMS and AIFs,

01:00:35 they too contribute significantly large amount of money

01:00:38 into the market operations.

01:00:40 So it is a liquidity on the domestic side

01:00:42 which has kept the market intact.

01:00:45 Something what we experienced

01:00:46 in the month of December last month,

01:00:49 varying due to the signs of interest rate coming down

01:00:52 in the, by the Fed, the global traders, ETS, index funds,

01:00:57 they started putting in more money

01:00:59 and that's what we experienced a significant

01:01:02 and large sum of money coming into the market.

01:01:04 But this money is more or less I think a traded money.

01:01:06 I think this money is largely getting deferred

01:01:08 into including into derivative market.

01:01:10 So to a greater extent, I think it is a liquidity

01:01:13 which is winning over the fundamentals

01:01:15 at this point of time.

01:01:16 As long as we see the flow continuing,

01:01:19 maybe I think the market momentum will continue.

01:01:21 Maybe we'll have to keep checking the valuations

01:01:24 at the same time, not to get euphoric

01:01:26 about the market conditions

01:01:28 and I think put money behind high valuations.

01:01:31 - Yep.

01:01:32 Autos in focus this morning, FADA data out.

01:01:35 Looks like PV sales have been good,

01:01:37 at least a year on year

01:01:40 and auto retail sales have increased 20% plus year on year.

01:01:44 So that's one space that we need to watch.

01:01:47 Aditya, morning, just want to get your topics in

01:01:50 as your open rates, your pre-open rates settle.

01:01:54 What's on top of your list this morning?

01:01:56 - Morning, Kamana.

01:01:57 I've got a couple of buy recommendations

01:01:58 and both from the financial space.

01:02:00 The first is Axis Bank.

01:02:02 After consolidation, stock has broken out

01:02:04 from a bullish channel

01:02:06 and then I believe stock is here to make new highs.

01:02:09 So one can go ahead and buy the stock for a target of 1195

01:02:12 with the stock price at 1100 on the downside.

01:02:14 The second stock is HDFC Life.

01:02:16 This entire space is very interesting

01:02:18 and after a good up move,

01:02:20 all these stocks went into a corrective phase

01:02:22 and now I believe it's done with this correction

01:02:24 and ready for an up move again.

01:02:26 So HDFC Life is something looking very interesting

01:02:27 on the charts.

01:02:28 One can go ahead and initiate fresh longs,

01:02:31 maybe for a positional trade for a target of 675

01:02:34 on the upside with the stock price at 630 on the downside.

01:02:36 - All right.

01:02:37 Aditya, I want your take on a couple of counters

01:02:40 that have been in the news this morning.

01:02:42 Let's start with Titan.

01:02:43 Good business updates.

01:02:44 A couple of notes there, one from Citi as well.

01:02:47 And their jewelry business has really fired in Q3.

01:02:51 On the charts, do you like Titan?

01:02:53 Do you see opportunities there and any of the jewelry pack?

01:02:57 - Not really, Kamana.

01:02:58 To be honest, Titan is looking absolutely flat

01:03:01 on the chart structure.

01:03:03 If anything, it's going through a consolidation phase.

01:03:05 If it breaks down from support levels of 3,700,

01:03:08 it would lead to a distribution in the stock.

01:03:11 I would closely wait for the stocks to make new highs

01:03:14 in the previous peak being 3,800.

01:03:15 If that is taken out and stock sustains above that

01:03:17 decisively, then I would initiate fresh longs,

01:03:19 maybe for a target of 3,950, 3,400, 4,000 on the upside.

01:03:23 Otherwise, I'll just avoid the trade.

01:03:25 It looks a little bit stretched at the moment.

01:03:27 - Yeah.

01:03:28 - Yeah.

01:03:29 - Right.

01:03:29 Aditya, a couple of other names

01:03:30 that I want to quickly pick up with you.

01:03:32 I don't know whether you've mentioned IT,

01:03:34 but would you initiate long calls

01:03:37 in any of those IT stocks ahead of earnings?

01:03:39 And more importantly, Thursday and Friday

01:03:41 did see long buildup across most IT stocks.

01:03:45 - Oh, I believe there's good money making opportunity

01:03:48 for sure.

01:03:49 And I was hearing to the conversation that you're having

01:03:51 that they went sometime back,

01:03:53 that isn't the large cap IT, which will outperform.

01:03:56 And I believe so.

01:03:57 It's time to look at the large cap IT space

01:04:00 because this is something which has been

01:04:01 underperforming big time.

01:04:02 We've seen massive outperformance

01:04:03 in the mid to small cap IT stocks.

01:04:06 If I have to pick a large cap IT stock,

01:04:08 I'll go with Infosys.

01:04:09 That has to be the top pick.

01:04:11 Stock didn't see a correction last week

01:04:13 and I now believe it's ready for an up move with the stocks.

01:04:16 Results are decent, no negative surprises.

01:04:19 I believe stock can head to levels of 1,600 to 1,700

01:04:22 as well on the upside.

01:04:24 The second stock on Merida will be a PCS.

01:04:26 That too looks very interesting on the chart structure.

01:04:28 Though it has been an outperformer

01:04:30 within the entire large cap IT pack,

01:04:32 but I still believe there's more money making opportunity here.

01:04:35 So 4,100 is something that I'm eyeing on PCS

01:04:38 with a good support at 3550, 3590 on the downside.

01:04:41 Aditya, what about the mid IT space

01:04:45 that everyone's betting on?

01:04:46 Are you steering clear?

01:04:47 Do you think prices have run up too much

01:04:50 or anything you like over there?

01:04:51 No, I do like that space, Tamanna,

01:04:53 but given if I have to pick between mid cap IT

01:04:56 and large cap, probably I'll stick to large cap

01:04:57 because there is to do what is favorable there.

01:04:59 But if I have to pick a mid cap IT stock,

01:05:02 there definitely is money making opportunity.

01:05:04 A couple of names that stand out,

01:05:05 CoForge is something that tops the list,

01:05:08 followed by LTIM and Persistent Systems.

01:05:11 Talk about CoForge, I believe stock is good

01:05:13 to test levels of 6,400 on the upside

01:05:16 with a good support at 5,900 on the downside.

01:05:19 Persistent Systems, the best performing one

01:05:21 of the best performing IT, mid cap IT space stocks.

01:05:24 So I believe here too, one can initiate long position,

01:05:28 but again, it will be a little volatile, I believe.

01:05:30 So 7,500 is what I'm playing with Persistent Systems.

01:05:34 And the last is LTIM,

01:05:35 that too looks interesting on the chart.

01:05:37 In fact, this is one of the mid cap IT stock

01:05:38 which hasn't performed to be very honest after the merger.

01:05:41 So this is looking very interesting on the charts

01:05:43 and test levels of 6,600 on the upside,

01:05:45 a little medium term to long term target,

01:05:47 but that would support at 5,800 on the downside.

01:05:50 Deven, we saw fireworks in the real estate back last week.

01:05:54 We will of course get some more details

01:05:56 on what's really happening in the sector.

01:05:58 And we have a real estate special in a few minutes,

01:06:00 but how are you approaching the realty pack?

01:06:03 Even if you look at some of those valuation stocks

01:06:05 like Soba that looked attractive,

01:06:06 have ran up so sharply in the last one week

01:06:09 that I don't know now valuations,

01:06:10 there too could be looking stretched.

01:06:12 How would you approach real estate?

01:06:14 Would you go with the likes of a DLF,

01:06:16 Godrej, Prestige, Brigade, any picks here?

01:06:19 And do you anticipate the excitement

01:06:21 to continue for the realty pack?

01:06:23 Well, I think this is a story with most of the sectors

01:06:28 and the companies where the money is being chased,

01:06:30 the money is chasing, I think, some of the quality stocks.

01:06:33 In real estate, no doubt, we are seeing

01:06:36 a good amount of visibility due to the construction,

01:06:38 due to the demand boom which is happening.

01:06:41 And there is no denial of that particular fact.

01:06:44 In fact, I think two to three years of the project visibility

01:06:47 is definitely seen in most of the cases.

01:06:50 However, the market has been pricing

01:06:52 everything up to itself.

01:06:53 I think they do not want to wait

01:06:55 for next few quarters either.

01:06:57 So that is causing a good amount of anxiety and worry both.

01:07:00 Because I think if this is the kind of flow

01:07:02 which is getting into the system,

01:07:04 and if money is chasing only few select stocks,

01:07:09 it's going to be very difficult for any kind of error,

01:07:11 any kind of disappointment when the early comes out.

01:07:15 And that is where probably one wants to be

01:07:17 a little bit more watchful and mindful about it.

01:07:19 Currently, as I see it, it is more driven by the momentum,

01:07:22 and this momentum is not going to come down

01:07:24 that much also, we agree.

01:07:25 However, I think this momentum taking the market price

01:07:29 at a fully priced level without providing any headroom,

01:07:32 I would think that one would like to wait and see

01:07:35 till the time we get some better opportunities around.

01:07:38 - Aditya, real estate, SOBA pulled itself together,

01:07:42 was up about 25% last week.

01:07:45 It took a bit of a break on Friday.

01:07:47 Are you expecting any of these real estate stocks

01:07:51 to do well this week?

01:07:52 And on back of that,

01:07:53 may consider long haul position on them?

01:07:55 - Not all the real estate stocks, to be honest.

01:07:59 A lot of stocks have run up ahead of its time

01:08:01 and then look extremely overbought on the charts

01:08:03 and then holds true for SOBA as well.

01:08:05 I believe if you're sitting on decent profit,

01:08:08 it's not a bad idea to book a partial profit

01:08:09 at current levels.

01:08:10 I could see volatility coming into the real estate pack.

01:08:13 Ghodesh property is something looking very interesting,

01:08:15 has underperformed a lot of fundamentals,

01:08:17 maybe not suggest a long,

01:08:20 because they trade at extremely overvalued,

01:08:24 but on the charts, it definitely looks very strong.

01:08:26 And I believe one can look at buying Ghodesh properties

01:08:30 at current levels.

01:08:30 Look for a target of 2350, 2400 on the upside

01:08:35 with a support at 2150 on the downside.

01:08:37 So if any real estate stock,

01:08:38 I have to stick to it will be Ghodesh properties.

01:08:40 - Yeah, yeah.

01:08:41 Devin, just wanted to get your take on the auto pack.

01:08:45 So they're going to be in use this morning.

01:08:47 FADA data is indicating a decent-ish December,

01:08:52 apart from the auto updates that also came in.

01:08:55 So do you see any value in any of these counters?

01:09:00 And also your take on Bajaj Auto,

01:09:02 we're waiting for those buyback details.

01:09:04 So today that's going to be one stock to watch out for.

01:09:07 - Yes, I think the Bajaj Auto remains absolutely convincing.

01:09:13 See, they have a policy in place

01:09:15 that anything over and above 15,000 crores in balance sheet,

01:09:19 they would like to distribute 70% out of it.

01:09:22 Currently in the balance sheet,

01:09:23 the liquidity is around 23,000 plus crores.

01:09:26 If you count 70% out of it,

01:09:29 that means that we are talking about a significant peak.

01:09:31 That means on 23,000 crores,

01:09:34 about 15,000 crores, I mean to say.

01:09:36 So on that 8,000 crores,

01:09:38 7.5, 8,000 crores amount that you have,

01:09:41 on that, if you are talking about 70%,

01:09:45 we are talking about 5,000,

01:09:46 5,000, 6,000 crores worth of amount,

01:09:48 which is likely to be announced in buyback.

01:09:50 I believe the board meeting is taking place today.

01:09:53 I think that is one area

01:09:55 which remains absolutely very convincing about this company

01:09:58 that this company wants to return back the cash to investors,

01:10:01 which in turn allows them to keep the financial engineering

01:10:05 done in form of shrinking the equity,

01:10:08 and in turn creating the better return ratios

01:10:10 on the investment front.

01:10:12 So that's a fundamentally very positive viewpoint

01:10:15 that one can take,

01:10:16 and that supports the stock price also.

01:10:19 As coming to the other stocks,

01:10:22 I believe the commercial vehicle is one segment

01:10:25 where you have commercial vehicles and the buses,

01:10:28 where the order inflow is significantly large

01:10:30 for most of these frontline companies

01:10:32 like Tata Motors, Ashok Lend,

01:10:34 and even for the Rishal,

01:10:36 and even JBM and others,

01:10:37 I think one of listed in this space particularly.

01:10:41 I guess I think this is where probably

01:10:43 you are likely to see a good amount of continuity

01:10:46 of the business and the order condition.

01:10:49 Even in passenger vehicle,

01:10:51 the electric vehicles, electric two-wheelers,

01:10:54 they are assuming higher growth numbers.

01:10:56 So that is where again,

01:10:58 the companies like Tata Motors

01:11:00 probably would remain in forefront.

01:11:02 Maruti of course remains, I think, good,

01:11:04 but Maruti is already priced in most of the developments

01:11:07 into the valuations currently.

01:11:09 So I would rather stay focused with Tata Motors

01:11:11 and Ashok Lend at this point of time

01:11:14 on the investment as well as from the momentum perspective.

01:11:17 - Aditya, we've got a couple of minutes to go

01:11:20 before we gear up for market opening.

01:11:21 I'm not sure if I got a trade from you on Bank Nifty.

01:11:24 - So we did speak about Bank Nifty

01:11:27 and then I believe it's more of a volatile movement

01:11:31 that we are looking at in the Bank Nifty space.

01:11:33 I would wait for the index to trade above 48, 150,

01:11:37 48, 200 decisively.

01:11:39 Above that level, maybe I'll initiate fresh long positions

01:11:42 for a target of 48, 500,

01:11:44 which is the previous highly recent one.

01:11:46 On the downside, 48,000 is a very good support area.

01:11:50 So between 48,000 to 48,200

01:11:53 is what is oscillating in at the moment.

01:11:55 Above 48,200, I'll initiate fresh longs

01:11:58 for a target of 48,500.

01:11:59 - Yeah.

01:12:00 Aditya, very quickly, your take on Bajaj Auto.

01:12:03 I asked Devin about it and he's excited about Bajaj Auto.

01:12:07 On the charts, anything you like in the auto space?

01:12:10 - So definitely two-wheeler is looking very attractive,

01:12:13 be it Bajaj Auto, Hero Auto, or Ayesha Motors.

01:12:15 All the three stocks definitely look good.

01:12:18 If I have to pick right now, if I want to buy Bajaj Auto,

01:12:20 no, I won't look to buy Bajaj Auto at current levels.

01:12:23 Maybe look for a dip closer to about 6,800, 6,700,

01:12:26 then I could initiate a fresh long with Bajaj Auto.

01:12:29 Looking extremely stretched on charts.

01:12:31 If I have to pick one two-wheeler space,

01:12:33 then it would be Ayesha Motors

01:12:34 because we did see a bit of profit booking recently.

01:12:38 Good risk to reward at current levels.

01:12:41 Put support at 3,800, 3,750 on the downside,

01:12:43 and I could see levels of 48,500 on the upside.

01:12:46 - Just a couple of more counters,

01:12:48 and we haven't really talked about Sharm Metallics,

01:12:51 but it has been in the news for a fundraise round, QIP round.

01:12:56 Any take on Sharm Metallics, Aditya?

01:13:00 - So yes, we did see a good volume back breakout

01:13:05 on the stock, but again, Tamanna, I believe,

01:13:07 the stock has run up too much,

01:13:09 and I see negative divergence is building up

01:13:11 on the chart structure,

01:13:12 especially on the higher time frame.

01:13:14 So maybe if it comes close to about 6,10,

01:13:17 then I could look to go a fresh long on the stock.

01:13:20 If people are already holding onto the stock,

01:13:22 they've already bought earlier,

01:13:24 maybe put a trailing stop at about 640

01:13:26 and then hold onto it.

01:13:28 - Absolutely.

01:13:29 Just a minute or so left.

01:13:30 A very, very quick take, Devin Bhai,

01:13:34 on what would be your top play today in FMCG,

01:13:37 or will you avoid completely?

01:13:38 - I don't think that anything for today per se,

01:13:42 but I like the strategy which Hindustan Liver

01:13:45 has been adopting about using the AI

01:13:48 for distribution and demand generation.

01:13:50 So this is one company which will continue

01:13:52 to remain in my focus area.

01:13:54 Whenever I think opportunity comes around,

01:13:56 I think that will be a buy list along with ITC.

01:14:00 - Right, Devin, Aditya, stay with us.

01:14:02 We'll just quickly take a check

01:14:04 on how the markets are gonna be opening up.

01:14:05 It's about 30-odd seconds to go.

01:14:07 It'd be an interesting morning.

01:14:08 Remember the trading range of 21,500 to 21,800

01:14:13 is gonna be critical in terms of what market participants

01:14:16 will be watching out for.

01:14:17 In terms of things we've seen,

01:14:19 FI index longs have risen to 67% versus 66.

01:14:23 Nifty put-call ratio has also declined to 1.08 versus 1.22.

01:14:28 The Wix has also come up marginally.

01:14:29 The Nifty PCR has also declined to 0.77 versus 1.17.

01:14:34 So all these factors are indicating

01:14:36 that the bulls are in control.

01:14:38 There will be an attempt to break 21,800

01:14:41 and move upward 21,850.

01:14:43 Remember, it's gonna act as an important level

01:14:45 of resistance on the upside.

01:14:47 It's gonna be a flat to lower start,

01:14:49 but I guess that's what the pre-open was indicating.

01:14:51 Nifty itself opened up pretty good.

01:14:54 21,747 is what we have, 36 points higher,

01:14:57 building onto the gains that we saw in terms of Friday's trade.

01:15:01 Bank Nifty though, interestingly, is trading lower.

01:15:04 This we haven't seen in the last few days.

01:15:06 Remember, it has been very, very volatile on Bank Nifty

01:15:08 and today seems no different.

01:15:10 48,068 is what we have.

01:15:12 48,000 itself will be an important level of support

01:15:15 for Bank Nifty.

01:15:16 If that gets taken out, we could be heading lower

01:15:18 to levels of 47,850.

01:15:21 The markets itself are keeping themselves together,

01:15:24 but it wouldn't surprise me if we actually see

01:15:26 a little bit of selling coming in

01:15:28 over the next few hours of trade.

01:15:30 Broader markets doing okay, marginally higher,

01:15:32 nothing much to write home about,

01:15:33 and that is similar for the small cap index as well.

01:15:36 There you go, small cap index trading

01:15:37 with a gain of five-tenths of a percent.

01:15:39 The mid cap though, up only about three-tenths of a percent.

01:15:42 The benchmark, like I thought it would,

01:15:44 has turned negative, at least on the Sensex.

01:15:47 Nifty as well, struggling to hold onto those levels

01:15:50 in trade this morning.

01:15:51 Well, let's take a look at what's contributing

01:15:53 to the markets.

01:15:54 The breadth is positive.

01:15:55 The bias is very clearly on the upside.

01:15:57 Titan on back of those numbers,

01:16:00 festive demand clearly giving a boost up,

01:16:01 a couple of brokerages, all that helping Titan

01:16:03 this morning up about a percent and a half.

01:16:06 In fact, most of your Tata Group companies

01:16:07 aren't doing too badly.

01:16:08 Tata Motors is up a percent.

01:16:09 Tata Steel is trading higher.

01:16:12 Tata, Tata Consumer, TCS is what I like to see.

01:16:15 That one's trading soft ahead of its earnings on Thursday.

01:16:18 BPCL, JP Morgan had an upgrade on BPCL

01:16:21 on back of that the stock trades high by a percent.

01:16:23 Motor stocks are not looking too bad,

01:16:25 so Aisha, Tata Motors all trading in positive territory.

01:16:28 It's interesting, you're seeing a little bit

01:16:29 of a mixed trend emerging for the IT packs.

01:16:31 The stocks like HCL are higher this morning,

01:16:34 but you've also got TCS and Infi

01:16:36 that are trading soft in early trade.

01:16:38 Pharma is not looking too bad.

01:16:39 It's again a morning where defensives aren't doing too badly.

01:16:42 Auto is holding itself together.

01:16:44 Titan, BPCL, Tata Consumers are some of the counters

01:16:48 that we'll be watching out for in today's trade.

01:16:49 But Tamanna, this is really the market.

01:16:52 It's gonna be, I think, tossing between gains and losses

01:16:55 for most part of today.

01:16:56 And we've already seen that on the Sensex and Nifty.

01:16:57 - Absolutely, very clear trend over there

01:16:59 with your tech pack feeling the pressure

01:17:02 ahead of the numbers today.

01:17:04 While you have BPCL and Titan doing well,

01:17:07 BPCL, remember we spoke about in pre-open,

01:17:10 they have a JP Morgan report out

01:17:12 and Titan, of course, those updates.

01:17:13 But a few more stocks that are on our radar,

01:17:15 and let's start with them.

01:17:16 Adani Wilber is one of them.

01:17:18 So a slew of business updates have been driving markets

01:17:22 and Adani Wilber was also out for them.

01:17:24 There was a Nuvama note as well with a buy rating,

01:17:28 but that stock down about a percent odd in trade.

01:17:31 Adani Ports also had a positive rating from Citi,

01:17:35 that stock up in the green.

01:17:37 Well, let's take a look at some of the other stocks

01:17:40 that are on our radar today.

01:17:41 SJVN, let's come to SJVN.

01:17:43 Order, once again, an order flow once again on that stock.

01:17:47 So it is a newsmaker.

01:17:49 They have signed a power usage agreement

01:17:51 with the Uttarakhand Power Corporation

01:17:53 to supply 200 megawatts of solar power

01:17:56 from the under construction 1000 megawatt Bikaner project.

01:18:00 Remember, the move to renewable energy

01:18:03 is creating a lot of opportunity

01:18:05 and we're seeing SJVN as one of the key suppliers

01:18:08 or who are benefiting from it.

01:18:11 More on a brokerage note, Impact Aurobindo Pharma,

01:18:13 one of them, Citi had a buy move on it today

01:18:18 with a target price of 940 and it is down about a percent.

01:18:22 BCL Industries, another one that we've been talking about

01:18:25 in pre-trade as well.

01:18:27 The company has announced an increase in ethanol prices

01:18:32 by oil marketing companies from Jan 5th.

01:18:35 They've raised the prices, that stock up 3% in trade

01:18:38 and those prices have been raised

01:18:39 by about 5 rupees 79 paise per liter.

01:18:43 Now, Jupiter Wagons is another one

01:18:44 and we'll be hearing from the management later today

01:18:47 on the channel.

01:18:48 Another order win and there've been a slew of them

01:18:50 in the last few days, the last week.

01:18:53 So the latest one is a contract worth 100 crores

01:18:55 from one of the leading automobile manufacturers

01:18:58 to manufacture and supply four weeks

01:19:00 of double-decker auto carrier wagons.

01:19:04 Remember, they had a Ministry of Defense order as well

01:19:07 on Friday coming in.

01:19:08 So that stock up about 3%.

01:19:10 I just wanna quickly look at the auto pack

01:19:12 and how they're doing to understand the FADA numbers.

01:19:15 Very simply put, it's better for the two wheelers

01:19:18 as far as the data is concerned,

01:19:19 than your passenger vehicles.

01:19:21 Two wheelers have seen a good revival.

01:19:23 So Bajaj Auto, even ahead of its buyback is up about a percent.

01:19:26 M&M, Tata Motors, all in the green,

01:19:29 although the tractor data is not too heartening.

01:19:34 But look at Ayesha, Ayesha up about one and a half,

01:19:36 nearly 2%, Hiro Moto and Maruti Suzuki,

01:19:39 also all in the green.

01:19:41 So auto in focus, IT of course, in focus as we've been seeing.

01:19:45 But Samina, a lot of movers today in trade.

01:19:47 - The broader market, surprisingly,

01:19:49 Sula is up 10%.

01:19:50 So Sula trades with a 10% gain.

01:19:52 Of course, these are smaller names,

01:19:54 but worth the mention in trade this morning.

01:19:56 Alok's Textile is logging in a 9% rally this morning.

01:20:01 What do you wanna keep in mind is the counter's up 60%

01:20:03 in the last five days.

01:20:05 So building on that gains on Alok is what we have.

01:20:08 Electra Trade, again, a good counter to track,

01:20:11 five and a half percent gains in early minutes of trade.

01:20:14 The stock is looking good as we speak

01:20:17 in terms of market activity.

01:20:19 Across the Nifty Mid-Cap 100,

01:20:22 you've got stocks like HPCL up 3%,

01:20:24 while BPCL is gaining on back of a brokerage upgrade.

01:20:27 HPCL is up three and a half percent in trade.

01:20:30 And Nikon back of its business update,

01:20:32 the market seems pleased, giving it a thumbs up.

01:20:34 The stock trades the gain of two and a half percent.

01:20:37 Kajaria Cement is up two and a half percent.

01:20:39 Suzlon is up 2%.

01:20:41 Hudson Agro is up 2%.

01:20:43 Phoenix, some of the other names that are doing well,

01:20:45 CG Power, Zee, Motherson, Sumi, Whirlpool,

01:20:49 M&M Finance are some of the other big gainers

01:20:52 in trade today.

01:20:53 Well, I'll just quickly extend that list

01:20:55 to see some more names that are holding up

01:20:57 in today's trade.

01:20:58 But Electra, you've got Sula, you've got Alok,

01:21:02 those are your big gainers.

01:21:04 The other ones gaining are largely on business updates.

01:21:06 But HPCL is also seeing very healthy volumes.

01:21:08 So it'll be interesting to see what's happening there.

01:21:10 Maybe Crude stabilizing at $78 a barrel this morning

01:21:13 could be something OMCs are taking heart from

01:21:16 in early trade.

01:21:17 That's what we have.

01:21:18 But TCS from the large cap space,

01:21:21 we highlighted that when we took you through market opening,

01:21:23 is your top loser on the Nifty 50.

01:21:25 A little bit of nervousness very evidently being felt

01:21:28 on the street in terms of TCS.

01:21:30 The stock is seeing some pressure,

01:21:32 1% off in early minutes of trade.

01:21:35 The day belongs to Sula, like I said.

01:21:37 On the sell side, I'm quickly going to pull up

01:21:39 a few losers.

01:21:39 Tamman, unless you've got those losers that you're tracking.

01:21:42 But on the gaining side, well, things aren't looking too bad.

01:21:45 In losers, you've got a few of those banks.

01:21:47 Marico is seeing a big cut.

01:21:49 So 5% lower on Marico is what we have this morning.

01:21:52 Markets not pleased with their business update.

01:21:54 Inox Wind is down 6%.

01:21:57 Godrej Consumers business update getting a thumbs down.

01:21:59 Remember, we've talked about how rural consumption

01:22:01 is a weak spot on back of it.

01:22:03 All these counters are seeing pressure.

01:22:04 Godrej Consumers down 5%, Marico down 4%.

01:22:08 Spark had a drug launch.

01:22:10 The counter is down another 4.5%.

01:22:13 1.5% now is what we're getting in.

01:22:16 Aarti Industries is looking bad.

01:22:17 So Specialty Chemicals, again, this morning

01:22:20 is not seeing too much buying emerging in trade.

01:22:22 Anything else, Tamman, you pull up?

01:22:23 Yeah, Gujarat Floro is one I'll talk about.

01:22:25 Gujarat Floro down in trade today, as is Torrent Power.

01:22:29 Torrent Power, remember, had a massive run up last week.

01:22:31 So perhaps a bout of profit booking there.

01:22:33 But even your smaller banks, AU Small Finance, Federal Bank,

01:22:38 Pandhan Bank, all of them having a fairly tough time

01:22:42 this morning in trade.

01:22:43 Let me quickly get across opening comments

01:22:46 from Deven Choksi and Aditya Agrawala, who are with us

01:22:49 on the market open.

01:22:50 So we're seeing a bit of, I would say,

01:22:54 a tepid kind of a trade this morning.

01:22:56 Not too bad on the Nifty and Sensex,

01:22:58 but the Nifty IT up about a percent, percent and a half.

01:23:02 And that's interesting, because right in opening,

01:23:05 we saw your emphasis on TCS and not participating.

01:23:09 I want to just look at Nifty IT contributors

01:23:11 before I take that question across to Deven,

01:23:14 on what is really working.

01:23:15 HCL Tech, Wipro, all doing pretty well,

01:23:18 but not your big boys this morning.

01:23:21 Deven, just your opening thoughts

01:23:22 on how we've seen the market open

01:23:24 and the continued sort of confidence in IT companies.

01:23:31 I think Amarnath has remained laggard, I think,

01:23:35 in the last full year, particularly

01:23:37 the front line IT companies like Infosys, TCS and all.

01:23:41 They didn't participate.

01:23:42 In fact, I think Mitya participated

01:23:44 in the second half, so I think the front line was never

01:23:48 participated enough.

01:23:49 So from that perspective, I think

01:23:51 there is a systematic amount of contra buying opportunity

01:23:55 if the measures which are coming up,

01:23:58 which we discussed at the beginning of the show,

01:24:00 if those measures are coming up, particularly

01:24:03 coming from the larger amount of ordering flows,

01:24:06 then in my view point, the Infosys, TCS kind of companies

01:24:10 holds the ground for giving an appreciation of 15% to 20%

01:24:14 in a financial year of 12, 24, 25.

01:24:18 So from that perspective, there should

01:24:21 be some amount of appetite to buy the stock

01:24:23 into the portfolio.

01:24:25 At the same time, mutual funds particularly

01:24:28 have remained relatively underweight on these companies

01:24:30 in the last year.

01:24:31 So that makes a case for them to deploy more money

01:24:34 because they've been receiving systematic inflows.

01:24:37 And we believe that today the inflow is largely coming

01:24:39 into the large-cap counters.

01:24:41 So to a greater extent, I think you

01:24:43 are likely to see the amount of money on large-cap schemes,

01:24:46 rather the amount of money getting

01:24:47 deployed into the large-cap counters hereafter.

01:24:50 So in my view point, I think we are

01:24:51 likely to see some amount of buying interest

01:24:54 continuing in some of the front line IT companies

01:24:57 like Infosys and TCS going forward.

01:25:01 Aditya, quick last words before we start, of course,

01:25:05 winding up opening trade.

01:25:07 Sula, Alok Textiles, Olectra, Trident

01:25:11 are seeing moves on the upside on very large volumes

01:25:14 this morning.

01:25:14 Alok, in fact, is up 60% in the last five days.

01:25:17 Any of these smaller names you'd trade?

01:25:21 So the first stock that is on my radar is Olectra.

01:25:24 And just a disclaimer, your stock

01:25:26 has been recommended to our clients as well last week.

01:25:29 So we're playing with a target of 1,700 on the upside

01:25:32 and on the downside, 1,450, 1,400 is a good strong support.

01:25:35 If somebody wants to latch onto the stock,

01:25:37 even at current levels, they can do so.

01:25:38 It's a very good looking stock, Shabinan.

01:25:40 And look at the volumes.

01:25:41 It's very encouraging.

01:25:43 So on the downside, if one is looking

01:25:44 to buy at current levels, maybe you

01:25:46 can place a stock first loaded about 1,470

01:25:48 and look for a target of 1,700 on the upside.

01:25:51 Talking of Alok Industries, yes, definitely, as you mentioned,

01:25:54 stock has seen a sharp run-up post that announcement

01:25:56 that Reliance is going to participate in their issue.

01:26:00 But at the moment, it is raised right

01:26:03 at the resistance of 36 rupees.

01:26:05 If it crosses 36 rupees, then definitely there

01:26:07 is more room on the upside.

01:26:09 Stock is definitely not looking extremely overbought

01:26:11 on high time frame charts.

01:26:12 Maybe on shorter term time frame charts,

01:26:14 it is slightly overbought.

01:26:15 But there's definitely more room on the upside,

01:26:17 maybe till 45, 46 levels one can see.

01:26:20 But the topic has to be Olectra.

01:26:22 All right.

01:26:23 Olectra is a top pick.

01:26:24 What's definitely not a top pick from the market

01:26:27 and getting a drubbing is the FMCG pack.

01:26:29 Just look at Godrej Consumer down about 5% now.

01:26:32 Marico beaten down about 3.5%, 4%.

01:26:36 So again, business updates, which

01:26:38 are not pointing to a very, very lush and happy Q3.

01:26:43 What is working there still is United Spirits,

01:26:45 Imamian, Radico, Khaitan.

01:26:47 So your liquor players are working,

01:26:50 even though your other mainline, Godrej Consumer,

01:26:53 Marico, Varun Beverage is also not doing too well.

01:26:55 All right.

01:26:56 Thank you so much, Aditya and Deven.

01:26:57 Great to have you on the show and look

01:27:00 at how the markets have opened.

01:27:01 We're taking a very short break, but stay tuned.

01:27:04 On the other side, we're talking about a sector

01:27:06 that has been red hot through most of 2023

01:27:10 and promises to be in 2024 as well.

01:27:12 A deep dive and a close look at the real estate sector

01:27:15 with all the top names after this very short break.

01:27:18 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:21 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:25 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:29 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:32 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:36 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:39 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:43 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:46 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:50 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:54 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:27:58 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:02 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:06 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:11 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:14 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:18 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:22 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:26 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:30 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:34 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:39 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:42 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:46 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:50 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:54 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:28:58 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:29:02 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:29:07 (upbeat music)

01:29:10 (upbeat music)

01:29:13 (upbeat music)

01:29:15 (upbeat music)

01:29:18 (upbeat music)

01:29:21 (upbeat music)

01:29:24 (upbeat music)

01:29:27 (upbeat music)

01:29:29 (upbeat music)

India Market Open | Global Cues Tilt Towards Risk Off | NDTV Profit

Category

Transcript

Recommended