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00:00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:00:03 Hello, and welcome to India Market Open.
00:00:06 It's not very bright and happy across the world, guys.
00:00:09 A little bit of selling.
00:00:10 I'm not surprised.
00:00:11 The markets are looking for an excuse to book profits,
00:00:13 and they've pretty much found more than one.
00:00:15 Sorry.
00:00:16 I'll just mention it's not just the markets which
00:00:18 are skittish.
00:00:19 India-South Africa cricket match, if you saw,
00:00:22 South Africa 10 wickets, then India lost 10 wickets,
00:00:24 and then South Africa came back to bat
00:00:26 and lost three wickets as well.
00:00:27 So it's not just the markets, by the way.
00:00:29 Skittish across the world.
00:00:30 At least I didn't see it.
00:00:31 I didn't see it either.
00:00:32 But we can tell you what happened overnight,
00:00:34 and we feel your pain.
00:00:35 We feel your pain.
00:00:36 No, but the market's under pain, too.
00:00:38 The markets are under pain, and the reason is the Fed minutes.
00:00:41 And like Samina said, it's an excuse
00:00:43 that was being hunted for, and the excuse is definitely there.
00:00:47 So let's quickly tell you what's been happening overnight.
00:00:49 Fourth consecutive day of losses.
00:00:52 On Wall Street, the Dow was down nearly 300 points.
00:00:56 And the Nasdaq also pretty badly hit.
00:00:59 In fact, stocks like Nvidia, Apple, all the big ones
00:01:04 feeling the pain completely.
00:01:07 And the Fed minutes were definitely an excuse.
00:01:09 So a quick context check over here.
00:01:11 The bet so far over the last several weeks,
00:01:14 especially into the end of 2023 calendar year,
00:01:17 was that the Fed would start cutting rates fairly
00:01:19 aggressively in this year.
00:01:22 The minutes are showing that, yes, that
00:01:24 could be on the agenda, but the timing is not very clear.
00:01:28 And I'm just going to pull up one quote of what came in
00:01:31 from the Fed minutes, where they say,
00:01:33 in discussing the policy outlook,
00:01:35 participants viewed the policy rate as likely
00:01:37 or at near its peak for this tightening cycle.
00:01:40 But they noted that the actual policy path
00:01:43 will depend on how the economy evolves.
00:01:46 And if you go through the minutes carefully,
00:01:48 that includes an indication that if the conditions are not
00:01:53 benign, then rate hikes are also not off the table.
00:01:57 So this is something that everyone already
00:01:59 knew theoretically, but the minutes has definitely
00:02:03 made it very, very real.
00:02:05 Fed did what it did best, is confuse people.
00:02:07 For the Fed president Barkin, I think,
00:02:09 that was the Richmond Fed president Barkin
00:02:11 to say that interest rate hikes also remain on the table.
00:02:14 Come on, guys, let's be real.
00:02:15 No, so anything can happen.
00:02:17 It's always there.
00:02:18 It's always a 50-50 chance.
00:02:19 Let's be real.
00:02:20 I mean, the fact that--
00:02:23 no one knows better than this, but I'm just saying, OK,
00:02:26 maybe let's put it this way, that everybody
00:02:29 in their arm believes that the trajectory of the economy
00:02:32 and rates are lower.
00:02:33 Very unlikely that hikes are on the table.
00:02:35 That's the limited point.
00:02:36 I mean, yes, the timing of the cuts could be debatable,
00:02:38 but hikes, come on.
00:02:41 So I think it's important for the Fed
00:02:43 to also reiterate that we have everything at our disposal,
00:02:46 and that's what they have done.
00:02:47 The same Fed minutes also, and that meeting still
00:02:50 has that dot plot, which had got everyone so excited, which
00:02:53 is indicating 3/4 of a percentage point in cuts
00:02:58 in 2024.
00:02:59 So that continues.
00:03:00 But let's just take a look at what
00:03:02 happened to the US 10-year as a result of this.
00:03:04 At one point, went above the 4% point,
00:03:07 and then settled at about 3.92%.
00:03:10 But crude is the other factor that
00:03:12 is dimming the mood this morning,
00:03:16 quite an aggressive spike.
00:03:18 And two or three reasons.
00:03:19 One is the Houthi rebels have continued their attacks
00:03:22 unabated.
00:03:23 At least 18 global liners have said
00:03:25 they will not be using the Red Sea route.
00:03:28 A very strong statement from John Kirby
00:03:31 saying that we will defend ourselves as we need to.
00:03:34 So now what does that mean?
00:03:36 Does that mean a conflagration?
00:03:37 That's what the world is going to watch out for.
00:03:39 And an OPEC statement which has said
00:03:41 that we're all together to make sure
00:03:44 that supplies are squeezed enough to keep the rates up.
00:03:48 So all of those things adding to some of the chaos.
00:03:51 There's also one oil field where you're--
00:03:54 in Libya, there's a shutdown because of protests
00:03:57 which have contributed to crude spikes.
00:03:59 So not great news coming from the crude.
00:04:01 Quick look at Asia before I hand it over
00:04:04 to Neeraj for the domestic trade setup and that mood prevailing
00:04:07 there as well, with a little bit of a downer,
00:04:11 Japan leading that fall down over 1%.
00:04:14 Yeah.
00:04:14 And just the implied open before I get to the trade setup
00:04:17 as well for the GIFT NIFTY and what is it indicating.
00:04:19 Well, I'll be surprised if this happens,
00:04:21 but let's wait and watch, never know.
00:04:22 So the global weak setup, as Tamanna has outlined,
00:04:26 will weigh in on our markets.
00:04:27 Mid-cap's at risk too, and I'll tell you why.
00:04:29 One, on the NIFTY, I was speaking
00:04:31 to a couple of technical experts,
00:04:33 and they said that the lower high, lower low formation,
00:04:37 yet another session on the NIFTY.
00:04:39 Yet another session on the NIFTY means
00:04:41 that there is a bit of a risk of element continues to prevail.
00:04:45 But the thing is, viewers, one, that if you look at the put OI,
00:04:50 and options data at times indicates a lot more dependable
00:04:55 data, if you will, 21,500 now seems
00:04:57 to be the line in the sand, wherein the maximum OI rests
00:05:02 95.44 lakh contracts.
00:05:05 Now, this is a key support area.
00:05:07 The next highest put OI concentration is at 21,000.
00:05:10 So watch out for 21,500 today.
00:05:12 And options activity here might well
00:05:14 undermine the intraday trade for the NIFTY.
00:05:16 The other small aspect is that if you look at the last five
00:05:19 days, the Sensex, for example, or the NIFTY,
00:05:22 but the Sensex has corrected 1.38%.
00:05:24 Mid-caps and small caps haven't.
00:05:26 They've held out 1.93% up for the mid-cap index,
00:05:29 1.64% up for the small cap index.
00:05:32 Now, if indeed the NIFTY or the Sensex
00:05:34 stay volatile with the downward bias,
00:05:37 could we see mid-caps cracking?
00:05:39 Because that will hurt portfolios in a big way.
00:05:42 So watch out for that aspect.
00:05:43 The only respite, Samina and Tamanna,
00:05:46 is that the NIFTY PCR, pre-expiry day, was at 1.43%.
00:05:52 It is now at 0.77%.
00:05:54 So that brings down the elevated risk quite significantly.
00:05:58 This is exactly what I was telling Agam this morning,
00:06:01 Neeraj.
00:06:02 Towards the end of December, you had elevated levels in the PCR.
00:06:06 You had an elevated Wix.
00:06:08 Markets held out and made new highs.
00:06:10 This time around, the data that we
00:06:12 are talking about where PCR is sub-1,
00:06:14 Wix is not jumping around.
00:06:15 Of course, it's gone up about 35%, 36% last month.
00:06:18 So assuming that much, you can go above levels of 14.
00:06:20 And the markets are losing some steam.
00:06:23 We've made three different lows.
00:06:25 And we've made lower lows over the last three trading days.
00:06:27 And I think that is something you want to keep in mind.
00:06:30 On the 1st of Jan, you made a low of 21,681.
00:06:34 On the 2nd of Jan, you made a low of 21,556.
00:06:37 And yesterday, you made a low of 21,500.
00:06:40 Now, if I was a bull on the street,
00:06:43 it would be a little concerning to look at the fact
00:06:45 that while you've also made higher tops,
00:06:47 the lower lows could be a little disconcerting.
00:06:50 What we also need is banks and IT to give consistent support.
00:06:53 Now, they have not been steady.
00:06:54 Yesterday as well in Bank Nifty, while HDFC bank
00:06:57 didn't pull its weight, the smaller PSU banks
00:07:00 did quite well.
00:07:00 And Bank Nifty recovered about 200 odd points
00:07:02 from its day's low, I believe.
00:07:05 But 47,000 is what you have.
00:07:07 You've got Nifty weekly options expiry taking place today.
00:07:11 21,500 becomes a very significant level
00:07:14 to watch out for in terms of support.
00:07:16 It still remains, I believe, and that's
00:07:18 what traders are saying on the street,
00:07:19 it's a buy the dip strategy, continues to remain.
00:07:23 Mid-cap, and I think this is also an interesting theme
00:07:26 that's playing out.
00:07:27 We've consistently talked about how the broader markets are
00:07:30 frothy.
00:07:31 And when we were setting up trade
00:07:32 at the start of this series, we thought the correction,
00:07:34 if it had to come, would come in the broader markets
00:07:36 between mid and small cap.
00:07:38 Because they've run up, right?
00:07:39 They've run up substantially.
00:07:41 But the fall is being led by the large cap guys.
00:07:43 Broader markets still outperforming.
00:07:45 And this is one-- of course, some of it
00:07:47 could be attributed to the Adani stocks
00:07:49 in yesterday's day of trade, which gave the markets--
00:07:51 But broadly, the indices are up.
00:07:52 The last five data, the indices are up.
00:07:54 So that's just-- that's the anomaly.
00:07:56 I think what is the initial sort of reaction
00:07:59 to the business updates?
00:08:00 Because some have started trickling in.
00:08:03 And we'll talk a bit more about some of the data that
00:08:05 is out so far.
00:08:06 And that's, I think, the next trigger that's going to be
00:08:08 watched very, very carefully.
00:08:10 The initial reactions are perhaps not too exuberant
00:08:13 with what is being said.
00:08:13 Not bad.
00:08:13 Not bad as well.
00:08:14 I mean, we have the likes of JTL, APL.
00:08:16 It's also diverging trends, right?
00:08:18 It's not very company specific.
00:08:19 But I know Neeraj is giving me the look
00:08:20 like we're running out of time.
00:08:21 So I'm going to quickly go through the stocks that I have.
00:08:24 Or yeah.
00:08:26 A couple of counters that I have on my radar.
00:08:29 Very quickly, we'll go through this one.
00:08:31 Vedanta, no surprises here.
00:08:32 Could be a positive flip for the company.
00:08:35 The board of directors have agreed
00:08:36 on restructuring $3.2 billion of loan that they have.
00:08:40 Again, like I said, wars on the lines.
00:08:42 There's no other way to do this.
00:08:44 But significant as well.
00:08:46 In terms of output numbers, aluminum output
00:08:48 has come in 6% higher year on year.
00:08:51 Refined zinc output has come in 4% higher year on year.
00:08:54 Whether or not that was an expected line
00:08:55 is what we'll find out when we talk
00:08:57 to our analysts over the course of the next few minutes.
00:09:00 Bajaj Auto, I'm going to quickly mention this
00:09:03 because it is important.
00:09:04 They are considering a buyback.
00:09:06 The board will meet on the 8th of Jan.
00:09:08 Remember, every time the management
00:09:10 has indicated that if they've had enough cash on the books,
00:09:13 they've always believed in giving it back to its investors.
00:09:16 And this happened in Jan 2022, where they did a buyback
00:09:18 to the tune of 2,500.
00:09:20 The cash in the book stands at 5,900 crores,
00:09:24 which means you are expecting a buyback in the range of 2,500
00:09:29 or even slightly higher.
00:09:30 We'll have to wait and see when the management announces
00:09:32 the exact size of this buyback.
00:09:34 But nevertheless, a huge positive.
00:09:36 The stock trades at its life high
00:09:38 and has had a substantial rally in 2023.
00:09:40 Chambal as well, much smaller, but they've also
00:09:43 got a buyback on the cards.
00:09:44 They have cashed the tune of, I believe, 590 odd crores.
00:09:49 This is the very first time they're doing a buyback,
00:09:51 523 crores to be precise.
00:09:53 First time cash in hand and first time a buyback
00:09:56 is expected, much smaller in size.
00:09:58 But nevertheless, while we're talking about buybacks,
00:10:00 that's worth a mention.
00:10:01 Adani Ports, they approved 5,000 crores through NCDs
00:10:06 at their board meet yesterday.
00:10:08 Some management changes as well.
00:10:09 We will talk to you about that in a minute.
00:10:12 They've had the redesignation of Gautam Adani's executive
00:10:15 chairman up to July 3, 2027.
00:10:18 The board has approved Karan Adani as MD up to 23, May,
00:10:22 2027.
00:10:23 They've also appointed Ashwini Gupta
00:10:24 as CEO with effect immediately, actually, which is Jan 4, 2024.
00:10:30 Quick mention, while Adani Ports is raising funds
00:10:33 through an NCD, Satin Credit Care is also
00:10:36 expected to have a meeting later this week.
00:10:39 And they are also looking at fundraising through NCDs.
00:10:41 So very quickly, it took exactly one minute, guys.
00:10:44 And these are my three stocks.
00:10:45 I'll leave it to both of you.
00:10:46 All right.
00:10:46 So kudos for that.
00:10:48 But I just want to add the rest of the Adani
00:10:49 pack that we will have to keep an eye on after the Supreme
00:10:53 Court judgment yesterday.
00:10:55 It was significant.
00:10:55 And you already saw a fair bit of run up.
00:10:58 But we're going to talk about the impact
00:11:01 and also what this means in a bit of details.
00:11:04 We have some of the largest, biggest legal voices weighing
00:11:07 in on what we've seen yesterday.
00:11:09 So more on that a bit later.
00:11:11 But definitely, the Adani Group stocks should be on your radar.
00:11:15 Some business updates which have come in,
00:11:17 IndusInd Bank is one that I will mark out.
00:11:21 Their deposits are up 13% year on year.
00:11:24 Net advance is up 20% year on year.
00:11:26 And CASA ratio is 38.5% as on December 31st versus 42%
00:11:34 year on year.
00:11:35 So we look at what's happening with the entire banking pack.
00:11:38 You have Ujjivan as well, which has given its Q3
00:11:41 provisional updates.
00:11:43 So their total deposits up 29%.
00:11:45 CASA ratio at 25.3 versus 26.2.
00:11:50 So a dip there.
00:11:51 And disbursements are up 17%.
00:11:54 IEX as well has its business update.
00:11:58 And remember, IEX had very good volumes last quarter.
00:12:01 So the December total electricity volumes
00:12:04 are up 8.7% year on year.
00:12:06 The December overall volume up about 15%.
00:12:09 And Q3 overall volume up about 17%.
00:12:13 Just a couple of stocks.
00:12:14 I wanted to mark out Tata Tech because of an interesting story
00:12:17 I saw on WinFast.
00:12:19 Remember, WinFast is about 25% of revenues
00:12:22 for Tata Technologies.
00:12:24 And they're planning a battery plant in southern India
00:12:27 in 2024.
00:12:28 That's this year.
00:12:29 Tata Tech on my radar.
00:12:31 And PFC, they've signed an MOU with the Gujarat government
00:12:34 for projects worth about 25,000 crores.
00:12:38 But I reckon, Neeraj, that through the day,
00:12:40 business updates will dominate.
00:12:43 Sort of a preview of the results season
00:12:47 is something that people will look at.
00:12:48 Yeah, interesting, right?
00:12:49 We have so many result Q3 updates.
00:12:52 And then we have the results coming up as well.
00:12:53 So you don't know where to react.
00:12:54 But just on that IndusInd bank thing,
00:12:56 I thought the Citi note was interesting.
00:12:58 Just take a moment there.
00:13:00 I mean, independent of whether they were buy or sell
00:13:02 is one thing.
00:13:03 But they've said, Citi said that the advanced growth
00:13:05 is below the Q2 growth and is lower than the Citi estimates
00:13:09 as well.
00:13:10 So I think that line kind of stood out.
00:13:12 The deposit growth of 2.5% QOQ is also slightly lower
00:13:16 than the 3% to 4% quarter on quarter
00:13:19 mark of the last four quarters.
00:13:21 This is the NIMS and ROA, which is separate.
00:13:24 But the deposit growth piece is extremely important.
00:13:29 That 2.5% quarter on quarter, which is slightly lower
00:13:33 than the 3% to 4% quarter on quarter of the last few quarters
00:13:37 that they've maintained, I think that is an important thing.
00:13:39 So watch out.
00:13:40 If IndusInd bank dips, you know why it is dipping.
00:13:43 Marginally lower than what people thought of.
00:13:46 And BGR Energy, a 700-crore market cap company,
00:13:49 has said that SBI has spandered.
00:13:51 And it has about 2,060 crores worth of--
00:13:54 spandered.
00:13:54 And it has about 2,060 crores worth of exposure
00:13:57 as of November 30.
00:13:58 They have said that the company's
00:13:59 been servicing the interest and other charges.
00:14:01 So watch out for that.
00:14:02 Lastly, two brokerage notes.
00:14:04 Delivery has been raised to overrated Morgan Stanley.
00:14:07 Price target, 455 rupees.
00:14:09 Remember, recently it was upgraded by Citi as well,
00:14:11 yesterday or day before.
00:14:12 So watch out for delivery today.
00:14:14 If it needed to react.
00:14:15 And guys, watch out for enforcers.
00:14:17 Raised to buy at UBS.
00:14:19 Raised to overrated JP Morgan with a target price of 1,800.
00:14:23 And while Morgan Stanley has maintained that overrate,
00:14:25 they have raised the target price to 1,700 as well.
00:14:27 So we have a piece of rising yields,
00:14:29 but enforcers in particular seeing consensus buy calls.
00:14:32 - Ahead of earnings.
00:14:33 - Ahead of earnings.
00:14:33 - I mean, we'll have to wait and watch what happens on 11th
00:14:36 of Jan.
00:14:36 - Yeah, and three large brokerages
00:14:38 coming out with their buy calls.
00:14:39 - And it's well-timed, right?
00:14:40 You saw these IT stocks, correct?
00:14:42 And I know, Reeraj, you don't think
00:14:43 that we might have a positive opening.
00:14:45 But there's a good chance we might open positive.
00:14:47 The last couple of quarters, we've
00:14:49 been leading the way for global markets, right?
00:14:51 So I'm trying to be optimistic here, guys.
00:14:53 We're believing the implied open for this morning.
00:14:56 - All right.
00:14:57 So we'll wait and see.
00:14:58 We'll wait and see.
00:14:59 But it's a big day.
00:15:00 And we need to speak in a bit more detail
00:15:02 about those global factors, which
00:15:03 we're going to do with Alex on the editor's cut in a bit.
00:15:08 And I think, Reeraj, we'll speak to some special guests as well.
00:15:10 - Yeah, so let's go across and take it for this piece,
00:15:13 because Tamanna highlighted all the global picture first up.
00:15:16 And Alex, that's what we're going
00:15:18 to be talking on editor's cut today, isn't it?
00:15:19 - Absolutely.
00:15:20 In fact, let's break this down, right?
00:15:22 Because normally, you look at the headlines globally
00:15:25 on an ongoing basis.
00:15:26 And so sometimes, you tend to forget about the implications
00:15:29 when we're sitting here in India.
00:15:30 So what we'll try and do on this slightly different editor's
00:15:33 cut is we'll initially talk about some
00:15:36 of those headlines.
00:15:37 We'll reinforce them.
00:15:38 And we'll try to zoom out a little bit
00:15:40 and try to understand what the implications are.
00:15:42 - Let's do it quickly.
00:15:43 - OK.
00:15:43 So what, according to you, are the top takeaways
00:15:45 from the Fed Minutes?
00:15:46 - No, I mean, I think we highlighted it quite succinctly,
00:15:50 Alex, just about five minutes ago,
00:15:51 that it is more hawkish than what the street would
00:15:56 have anticipated.
00:15:57 But everything is on the table.
00:15:58 I think Tamanna put it up very well,
00:16:00 that they have said that we will do whatever we think is required.
00:16:06 And all the options are on the table.
00:16:07 - OK.
00:16:07 And the other thing, of course, is pushing back on expectations
00:16:10 that cuts will happen around March.
00:16:12 There's no indication of a time.
00:16:14 We knew that, of course.
00:16:15 But then a lot of people are now pushing it further behind.
00:16:19 And there was a lot of volatility, Samina,
00:16:21 in the bond yields overnight.
00:16:23 It touched 4% on the 10-year.
00:16:25 It's down back to 3.92%.
00:16:27 The question is, do we see a bit of a pullback in the bond
00:16:30 markets and, therefore, a little bit of softness in the equity
00:16:33 markets in the near term?
00:16:34 - I think it's a very fair point.
00:16:35 And one thing that we should mention today
00:16:38 is while you've had those Fed Minutes,
00:16:40 the bigger queue will come in tomorrow
00:16:42 when you've got your non-farm payroll data, right?
00:16:44 That is not expected to disappoint the markets, which
00:16:47 may not be great for the bulls.
00:16:48 So just substantiating what we saw in the Fed Minutes,
00:16:51 which said that the rate cut may come a little later.
00:16:53 And this is what I'm very confused about.
00:16:55 Nobody said there was going to be a rate cut in March.
00:16:57 And nobody now is saying there's no rate cut in March.
00:16:59 And the bulls want to believe it.
00:17:00 The bears want to believe it this morning.
00:17:02 But I guess Peter will help us break this down.
00:17:03 - Peter will help us break this down.
00:17:05 In fact, let's bring Peter Maguire on as well.
00:17:07 We've got Peter Maguire, the chief executive officer of XM
00:17:11 Australia, joining in.
00:17:12 Peter, we're trying to parse the data that we have right now.
00:17:16 What are you making of the latest with regard
00:17:18 to the Fed Minutes, of course, and the trajectory of bond
00:17:20 yields and what it means for global equity markets?
00:17:23 - Well, good morning, Alex.
00:17:24 And greetings from Sydney.
00:17:26 And happy New Year to everyone.
00:17:28 Certainly, it's a pleasure to join you.
00:17:30 Look, I'll tell you what.
00:17:31 I think the market's a little bit--
00:17:33 while they're hawkish, and I took on board
00:17:35 Neeraj's comments, I'm also-- there's
00:17:37 one of when is the rate cuts going
00:17:39 to actually get traction.
00:17:40 And this is the thought.
00:17:42 The investors and traders are saying
00:17:44 there could be 150 basis points this year.
00:17:46 Fed's saying 75, somewhere in the middle.
00:17:49 And when do we see blast off?
00:17:50 Is it by Easter?
00:17:51 Is it going to be in March?
00:17:53 So I think we've just got to get through this first month.
00:17:56 I'm looking to see how NFP hits the market tomorrow night,
00:18:00 non-farm payrolls, and a couple of other moving parts,
00:18:04 where the dollar is.
00:18:05 And let's see if anything happens as far as US equities
00:18:09 over the next couple of weeks.
00:18:10 So yeah, there's plenty of moving--
00:18:13 plenty of issues that we're going to take on board
00:18:16 and really get an idea of where we see movement.
00:18:21 Peter, good morning to you.
00:18:23 I believe it's still morning in Australia.
00:18:25 But do you reckon that this is more a temporary shift
00:18:30 in a sentiment which might last for a day or two?
00:18:32 Because the overarching theme or trajectory
00:18:37 seems to be lower inflation, lower economy,
00:18:40 and lower yields.
00:18:42 Sure, the minutes could spur the yields higher
00:18:44 for a day or two or three.
00:18:46 But the overarching trend is still lower?
00:18:49 I think so, Niraj.
00:18:50 And I think that's exactly right.
00:18:52 You'll get little bumps in the road.
00:18:54 And let's see what happens over the 48 to 72 hour window.
00:18:57 But yes, the overall theme, I mean,
00:18:59 they're conscious as far as where inflation.
00:19:01 It's certainly heading in the right direction.
00:19:03 You've been also assisted globally
00:19:05 with cheaper energy markets.
00:19:07 So that's helped from a consumer standpoint.
00:19:10 And then this is all going to feed into naturally,
00:19:14 I think, investors' appetite to take on risk.
00:19:18 What's happening in this first month
00:19:20 will be interesting, remembering with that huge rally
00:19:23 November and December.
00:19:24 No one was going to sell because of the tax implications
00:19:27 in April.
00:19:27 So if they're going to sell, they're going to sell this year.
00:19:30 And that might be a little bit of profit taking.
00:19:32 And people see other opportunities.
00:19:35 Yeah, it's going to be a really nice run up.
00:19:38 I think the first quarter will be quite dynamic.
00:19:40 And so, yeah, strap yourself in.
00:19:42 It could be a lot of--
00:19:44 plenty of opportunity for traders.
00:19:47 Hi, Peter.
00:19:47 It's Amina joining in as well.
00:19:50 I want to move on to the dollar because that
00:19:52 has seen a very sharp gain as well
00:19:55 over the last couple of days, close to levels of 102.5,
00:19:59 maybe slightly higher.
00:20:00 How do you trade the dollar right now?
00:20:03 Do you think further gains are on the lines with tension,
00:20:06 of course, on the Red Sea, Fed rate cuts not coming as soon
00:20:09 as the markets were expecting?
00:20:11 How would you pay the dollar?
00:20:12 Would you consider going long at these levels?
00:20:14 Well, I think so, Samina.
00:20:15 Lovely to see you.
00:20:16 And I feel as though that that push to the upside,
00:20:20 it's got a little bit further to run because, as you just said,
00:20:22 as far as Fed, let's say, with the sell-off as far as some
00:20:28 of the other currencies, there's been a nice really push
00:20:32 from a currency trading perspective
00:20:34 over the last couple of days has been very, very strong.
00:20:37 So yes, I think possibly a 103.
00:20:39 Let's say if there's any thought as 103.25 in the short run,
00:20:44 maybe by Tuesday next week, there's
00:20:46 every chance it could crank that sort of number out.
00:20:49 But yeah, it's been a dynamic market
00:20:51 over the last couple of days.
00:20:52 And it hasn't disappointed since Christmas as far
00:20:54 as currency trading at all.
00:20:56 Absolutely.
00:20:57 The last point that we wanted to talk to you about
00:21:01 is crude oil prices.
00:21:02 And we've seen that they've not gone up
00:21:05 as much as one would expect in a normal situation
00:21:08 when you have so much geopolitical tension.
00:21:10 And overnight as well, a lot of headlines coming in.
00:21:13 The Houthis attacking another container ship.
00:21:15 You have the US and its allies talking
00:21:18 about repercussions of that.
00:21:20 What are you making of the moves in crude right now?
00:21:22 Where are we heading?
00:21:24 Well, I'll tell you what, it's been very range-bound.
00:21:26 Really, we haven't seen explosive moves.
00:21:28 It has had a big move overnight up a couple of percent.
00:21:30 But look, it was pushed down.
00:21:32 It's been whipsawing.
00:21:33 And it's been very, very choppy.
00:21:35 So that needs to be considered.
00:21:37 You've got 78.60 for Brent.
00:21:39 I'm just looking on my screen, 73.12 for WTI.
00:21:43 So yeah, look, it's been range-bound.
00:21:45 I think the smart-- when it went to the US dollar,
00:21:47 they pushed that up.
00:21:48 Crude's taken a little bit of a backseat.
00:21:50 I really would have thought that something
00:21:52 as far as the Houthi situation would have pushed crude higher.
00:21:55 So it just goes to show that unless you
00:21:57 see something dramatic happen in that Red Sea
00:22:00 and that choke point around the Gulf of Aden,
00:22:03 then maybe we've just got to wait and see how it all plays.
00:22:08 But look, there's every chance that will create, I think,
00:22:13 further upside.
00:22:15 But it just really depends on geopolitically
00:22:18 and whether they contain this or it runs out of control.
00:22:21 Thanks, Peter, for joining in and giving us that perspective.
00:22:24 Always a pleasure speaking with you.
00:22:26 Neeraj, I think what I took mostly from this
00:22:28 is that there may be a few bumps in the road,
00:22:31 but that structural move is intact.
00:22:33 And while you might see a spike now and then in the bond
00:22:35 yields, they are heading lower.
00:22:37 Somehow, I think today's bigger news is not the Fed,
00:22:40 but what's happening in the Red Sea.
00:22:42 Remember what happened with Evergrande
00:22:44 and what that blockade did.
00:22:47 Now, this is unpredictable.
00:22:48 And if this--
00:22:50 Flares up.
00:22:51 Yeah, you know, flares up.
00:22:52 Thank you for filling that in for me.
00:22:54 But if it flares up, then you never know what happens.
00:22:56 It's going to cost shipping rates at a point of time
00:22:59 when the world economy is looking like coming off.
00:23:01 And we have maintained that that is the jack in the pack.
00:23:03 It is going to be crude.
00:23:04 And crude has always played havoc.
00:23:06 But also, Neeraj, while I know this crisis is putting
00:23:10 some pressure, there is still oversupply.
00:23:12 And we're going into seasonally weak water for demand.
00:23:15 US is producing more than the world likes.
00:23:17 Saudi wasn't happy about it.
00:23:18 Let's not forget what happened in the OPEC+ meeting.
00:23:20 There was resistance to cut production.
00:23:22 And it all seems like--
00:23:24 I mean, I'm not saying one way or the other.
00:23:26 But this is going as per script.
00:23:28 But I mean, I'm saying--
00:23:28 We're back at 80.
00:23:29 No, but crude notwithstanding, let's assume crude prices stay
00:23:32 stable at here.
00:23:33 And just the shipping cost moving up independent of crude
00:23:35 would be the problem.
00:23:36 And actually, yeah.
00:23:36 And I think I read a report where Khalid Khan, who
00:23:39 is the Federation of Exports, has said that cost of shipping--
00:23:43 so shippers have been trying-- logistic companies
00:23:45 have been trying to hike prices.
00:23:46 But because our supply from India has been low,
00:23:48 they've been unable to do it.
00:23:50 But now that this is a great opportunity, prices are up.
00:23:52 And even the 80% to 100% range and a $1,500 surcharge
00:23:56 has been applied on every shipment
00:23:58 now going to the Red Sea.
00:23:59 Yeah, so--
00:24:00 We'll try and get some more on that
00:24:01 and what that means for--
00:24:02 We have to.
00:24:03 --quarter four earnings for exporters.
00:24:04 Yeah, yeah, most certainly.
00:24:05 You know, this is an important barometer.
00:24:07 And somehow-- I don't know.
00:24:07 I may be wrong.
00:24:08 But I just think that this is probably the bigger headline.
00:24:10 The Fed is a passing thing.
00:24:11 It's happened today.
00:24:12 It'll probably impact for the next two days.
00:24:13 Let's wait and see what happens next.
00:24:15 But let's wrap it up on Editors Cut for today.
00:24:17 Please write to us if you believe
00:24:19 that there is some stuff that we should talk about on this
00:24:21 to give you our perspective.
00:24:23 But this is it on the Editors Cut for today.
00:24:26 But before we take a break, I think
00:24:28 what is also important is to talk about the biggest
00:24:30 news story of yesterday, arguably the biggest news
00:24:32 story of this week.
00:24:34 The Supreme Court gave the Adani Group and SEBI,
00:24:37 I might add, a clean chit in the Adani-Hindenburg case,
00:24:40 dismissing all the allegations against the Adani Group
00:24:43 and the cases being shifted out of SEBI's purview.
00:24:46 The Apex Court also ruled that petitioners could not
00:24:50 provide enough material to transfer the Adani-Hindenburg
00:24:52 probe to a special investigation team or SEBI.
00:24:54 Here are some of the voices who have spoken to the NDTV network.
00:25:00 Today's judgment is more than just a vindication of Adani
00:25:05 or a vindication of India Inc. as such.
00:25:10 It restores the supremacy of two important principles,
00:25:14 the rule of law and the separation of powers.
00:25:18 Under the rule of law, unsubstantiated allegations,
00:25:25 bazaar gossip, media speculation are all inputs for regulators
00:25:33 and investigating agencies.
00:25:36 They are not evidence on which courts can act.
00:25:41 Statutory authorities, statutory regulators,
00:25:45 investigating agencies must be left free to act,
00:25:49 free from intervention by the highest court.
00:25:53 There were, as far as SEBI was concerned,
00:25:55 24 investigations against the Adani Group,
00:25:59 out of which today 22 are completed
00:26:01 and the Adani Group has succeeded in those investigations.
00:26:05 SEBI itself, at the end of those investigations,
00:26:08 came to the following conclusions.
00:26:10 And this has really nothing to do with what is reported
00:26:13 in newspapers and otherwise.
00:26:14 So, the conclusion is de Hause that.
00:26:16 The conclusion was and is very clear.
00:26:19 One, that the Adani Group did not, as far as SEBI is concerned,
00:26:22 one, that the Adani Group did not violate
00:26:26 and no law was violated in the rise of the share prices of the Adani Group.
00:26:31 Two, as far as the Adani Group was concerned,
00:26:33 no investment laws were violated.
00:26:36 Three, as far as the Adani Group is concerned,
00:26:40 the requisite information that they gave was adequate and accurate.
00:26:45 And four, again, as far as the Adani Group was concerned,
00:26:48 they did not violate the minimum public shareholding which was required.
00:26:53 The court very clearly says that it does not want to step into
00:26:57 a legitimate jurisdiction of a technical regulator,
00:27:01 which in this case is SEBI.
00:27:05 And this has come again and again, where, if you remember,
00:27:08 in the imported coal case with Ultramega Powerplants,
00:27:11 the Supreme Court had sent the matter back to the power sector regulator,
00:27:15 saying these are technical issues and the Supreme Court should not step
00:27:19 into the jurisdiction of an independent regulator.
00:27:23 In this case, it happens to be SEBI, unless,
00:27:26 and it's an important point the Supreme Court makes,
00:27:28 unless the petitioners are able to prove that it violates
00:27:33 fundamental rights or any provisions of the Constitution.
00:27:36 So therefore, in this case, the Supreme Court is not satisfied
00:27:41 that there are any issues of violation of fundamental rights
00:27:45 or constitutional invalidities.
00:27:49 All right, that's some other views, of course, that came in on the network.
00:27:52 Standard disclaimer, the Adani Group owns NDTV and you are watching NDTV Profit.
00:27:57 Time for a quick break. Up next, we'll be joined by Kush Bhora
00:28:00 with his top derivative strategies. Also, later on in the show,
00:28:05 Amar Dev Singh of Angel One on the technicals,
00:28:08 as well as Nirav Ashar of Latin Manoharlal to talk about the fundamentals.
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00:31:30 Welcome back. You're watching India Market Open.
00:31:32 Let's take a look at the top headlines at this hour.
00:31:34 Rate cuts chatter fades as Fed minutes sing a different tune.
00:31:39 US bond yields spike, rise to close to 4% before losing ground.
00:31:44 And global markets on a correction mode.
00:31:47 NASDAQ down for the fourth day and Japan leads losses in Asia.
00:31:52 Crisis deepens in West Asia as 100 people are killed in a blast
00:31:56 near Iran General Qasem Soleimani's tomb.
00:31:59 Soleimani was killed by US drone attacks earlier.
00:32:02 Oil prices surge over 3% as West Asian crisis and Houthi militant attacks a container ship.
00:32:08 And back home, the Nifty and Sensex expected to open on a negative note following global cues.
00:32:14 Bajaj Auto goes for a buyback, board meets next Monday and the stock hits the 7000 rupee mark.
00:32:20 Some of the big stories there. Let's take a quick look at the implied open.
00:32:23 So, sort of mixed picture emerging there.
00:32:26 Though, you know, global cues are showing that we might end up with a muted opening
00:32:31 but perhaps a bit in the positive. We'll have to wait and see.
00:32:34 A big factor though through the day is also going to be expiry today.
00:32:37 I'm going across to Agam and you know that nervousness that we're seeing in the markets overall.
00:32:43 Are you seeing that in the F&O space as well?
00:32:45 Yes, we are in fact, Amanda. And I want to start by, you know, looking at the cash markets
00:32:51 and FII's as well as DII's both were sellers yesterday on a net basis.
00:32:55 That has in fact come through when it comes to the index futures too.
00:32:59 So, for the Nifty, while the underlying declined by around 0.7%, we didn't see any change in open interest.
00:33:06 And as far as the bank Nifty is concerned, well, we in fact saw further unwinding.
00:33:11 For the second straight day where the bank Nifty saw unwinding to the tune of nearly 12%,
00:33:17 that should come up for you on your screen as well.
00:33:19 Even as the index declined, it came off by, well, it was largely flattish, marginally in the red,
00:33:25 but a lot of positions being taken off.
00:33:27 Of course, today we will focus on the weekly options expiry for the Nifty.
00:33:32 The range has shifted lower by around 200 odd points.
00:33:37 For now, we did see a lot more writing around calls naturally considering we saw that weakness coming through
00:33:43 as far as the Nifty is concerned.
00:33:45 So, the 22,000 mark is out of the picture for now and we are starting to see a lot more build up
00:33:51 around the 21,721-800 calls.
00:33:55 That should perhaps serve as a little bit of resistance even in today's year of trade
00:34:00 considering we were just above 21,500 yesterday in terms of the closing price.
00:34:06 Naturally, on the lower end, we are starting to see a lot more traction around 21,300-21,400 puts.
00:34:13 Let's bring up the open interest distribution as well and that will give you a better picture.
00:34:18 As I have suggested, max OI in the calls now at 21,700 and on the lower end,
00:34:24 we are not looking at too much change as far as puts are concerned.
00:34:28 In fact, not too much activity either.
00:34:31 The question a lot of investors and traders will ask is that if we do open or if in opening trade,
00:34:39 we do see the Nifty go below the mark of 21,500, can that lead to further unwinding
00:34:46 and can that further unwinding lead to more weakness?
00:34:50 That is something that we are going to have to wait and watch for.
00:34:52 The gift Nifty, of course, is indicating a positive opening, but on the other hand,
00:34:57 there has been selling pressure as far as your FIIs and DIs are concerned.
00:35:02 Remember that FIIs have also reduced their overall long positioning from 68% to 65-66% at the moment.
00:35:11 Let's talk about stocks then and that's where we are seeing some more positive cues.
00:35:17 Alkim Laboratories, Bajaj Auto, Crompton Greaves, Kankan Corp, all seeing fresh longs coming through,
00:35:22 save for something like a Nalco which saw fresh shorts.
00:35:25 Besides that, we also saw about a short covering for the likes of Cormandel, PVRI, NOX, ITC,
00:35:31 along with ONGC sale as the only one with longs and winding coming through.
00:35:37 So it was a mixed year of trade. It was a relatively volatile day of trade as well,
00:35:41 if you can call it that, because we saw some weakness coming through yesterday
00:35:46 and eventually with the outcome of the Adani-Hindenburg case from the Supreme Court,
00:35:51 we saw a little bit of a recovery and eventually once again we started seeing a moderation in prices.
00:35:57 The question is what do you do with these data and where do we grow from here?
00:36:02 How would you perhaps place your bets over the course of today as well as the next few days?
00:36:09 We have Kush Bohra of kushbohra.com joining us on the show right now.
00:36:13 Kush, good morning and thank you so much for joining in.
00:36:15 How are you assessing the markets at the moment and how are you playing the benchmarks?
00:36:21 Hi, Agam. First, a very good morning to you, the entire team and all the viewers.
00:36:25 If I can just take a minute and explain the broader setup that we are seeing.
00:36:29 Everyone's been sounding very pessimistic about how Jan is perhaps going to be a weekish month
00:36:34 and it started out on that note, but I just want to point out a quick interesting fact.
00:36:39 The last few years, January before actually ending lower has actually crossed December highs and then slipped.
00:36:45 So that's typically what we call a sucker's rally. That's not happened.
00:36:49 On cue, January has started on a weekish note.
00:36:53 Now that tells me that perhaps, just perhaps this time it's a little different.
00:36:57 Now what do I mean by that? As you just mentioned right now, that the FIs are already piling on shorts.
00:37:02 That's not such a bad thing. Once the short covering happens, plus fresh money starts to come in,
00:37:07 the indices could move higher. Now, could Jan spring a positive surprise and end in the green?
00:37:14 There is a possibility now setting up for that.
00:37:17 But at the very least, what I see is that it's just setting up to be a brilliant Feb and March,
00:37:22 where we could perhaps see new high levels on the indices.
00:37:26 That is the broader view that we're starting to make based on the last couple of days move on the indices.
00:37:32 Closer to home, what's the expectation today?
00:37:35 Well, the bank Nifty was the weaker of the two indices for the last couple of days.
00:37:40 Yesterday, we saw that downslide, I could say halt, largely on account of the weekly options contract expiry.
00:37:47 Now that could perhaps play out on Nifty as well, because 21,500 has a fairly decent put base.
00:37:54 Of course, not as big as the call basis. But if we sustain above that level for a while,
00:37:58 then 21,500 just might be held. If we slip below that for a while, not by much,
00:38:04 then there could be a short covering rally that will play out on the Nifty as well today.
00:38:08 In the near term, or rather just for today, 21,500 give or take 50 points is where the Nifty could perhaps end.
00:38:15 So that's the view on the broader side. If this downslide continues,
00:38:19 21,200 is where we see the Nifty arresting this fall before we make any kind of a meaningful rebound.
00:38:24 Right. So, Kush, you're buying calls on the bank Nifty, if I'm not mistaken?
00:38:29 We are, because the kind of strength that was displayed yesterday,
00:38:33 around the 20-day moving average, we slipped below it on a daily basis, but we closed above it.
00:38:37 Plus, there is some put base that is also being seen at 47,500.
00:38:41 So we're slightly optimistic that this rebound could perhaps play out,
00:38:44 if not at least the short covering, could play out for a day or two.
00:38:47 Bank Nifty, 48,000 call option for the 10th January expiry is what we've got on our radar.
00:38:53 325, 375 are the targets that we're looking at, and 225 is where I would place my stop loss.
00:38:59 Right. And remember, the convexity plays in favour of the strategy that Kush is recommending right now,
00:39:05 because, well, we're not at 48,000, we're slightly away from that level.
00:39:11 If we do, in fact, see the bank Nifty move towards 48,000,
00:39:16 when there is a little bit of an elliptical move out there, considering your long options,
00:39:21 of course, what doesn't play in your favour when you're going long on calls is the time decade.
00:39:26 But considering we are in the early stages of the January expiry,
00:39:32 of course, there won't be as much time decade, but of course, Kush is also playing for the 10th January expiry.
00:39:38 That is the coming week, upcoming week's expiry.
00:39:41 And that's where time decade could just be a little bit more important.
00:39:46 That said, a quick up move will cancel out all that.
00:39:50 And for this particular strategy, that is a risk element that will play out against you.
00:39:57 But on the other hand, a quick move will play in your favour.
00:40:01 Kush, on the other hand, you also have a view on Siemens. Can you take us through that strategy as well?
00:40:07 In fact, yesterday wasn't such a bad day for a stock specific action.
00:40:12 And that's where a lot of our optimism is starting to spring.
00:40:16 Now, Siemens in the whole capital goods space had not participated due to its own reasons,
00:40:21 mainly the global apparent holding reasons rather than the domestic reasons.
00:40:26 But once the stocks actually made a base and started to rebound, it's actually seen a very interesting up move.
00:40:32 And there's a lot of catching up to do. We believe that Siemens could actually be a very strong positional bet from here on as well.
00:40:38 But from a near term trading perspective, 4100 call option is something that we've got on our radar.
00:40:44 175 and 200 are the targets we're looking at. And 125 is where I would place my stop loss.
00:40:50 And as a standard disclaimer, these are some of the calls that we've discussed as a part of our advisory service with our clients as well.
00:40:56 Siemens, 4100 call option, 175 and 200 is the target. And 125 is where I would place my stop loss.
00:41:03 All right. And it makes for a pretty decent risk to reward ratio as well, which was flashing up for you on your screen there.
00:41:09 You're making nearly two points for one point of risk based on, of course, the stop loss and the target that Kush has set as far as Siemens is concerned.
00:41:18 And this is largely around at the money call that Kush is recommending.
00:41:23 Kush, on that note, I'm going to take a moment to thank you for taking us through your calls as well as trading ideas for the markets.
00:41:30 And with that, it's over to you, Samina. Thanks for that, Agam.
00:41:33 It is looking like a day when there could be stock trade or stock specific opportunities to make money.
00:41:40 The buying Nifty that you want to watch out for, Nifty Options weekly expiry as well today.
00:41:46 It is looking like it could be a positive start. At least that's what the implied Nifty Open is saying.
00:41:51 Well, there'll be lots of stocks to focus on. Bajaj Finance is topping the list.
00:41:55 Pretty solid set of business updates coming in from there. Strong growth seen in third quarter F5-24.
00:42:01 AUM has grown 35 percent, I believe. AUMs have crossed 3 lakh crores for the very first time.
00:42:07 Harsh is standing by with more on that. Harsh, it's looking good for Bajaj Finance.
00:42:11 It will be a stock that will be in focus from the word get go this morning.
00:42:16 Well, yes, absolutely, Samina. Very strong set of numbers coming through from Bajaj Finance.
00:42:21 We've seen customer franchisee go up by 5 percent sequentially.
00:42:26 We've seen 38 lakh customers added. Now the customer franchise has breached the 8 crore mark.
00:42:32 And that seems to be chugging along quite easily, even given the higher base.
00:42:38 Quickly moving on to the new loans booked. It's coming just short of the 1 crore number, 98.6 lakh number.
00:42:45 And it's up 26 percent year over year. So new loans also coming through fairly well,
00:42:50 given the new customer base that's been added. Your AUM is where the number really stands out.
00:42:56 35 percent growth with regard to where the AUM is concerned. 3.11 lakh crore is now where the AUM stands at.
00:43:03 20,700 crore worth of AUM added only in this quarter alone.
00:43:09 Now, mind you, on a base of 2.9 lakh crore, that is a very, very sharp growth.
00:43:14 7 percent sequentially in Q3 is what Bajaj Finance has grown.
00:43:18 Some of the unsecured lenders seem to be growing quite well.
00:43:22 But Bajaj Finance is a league of its own because your asset quality in Bajaj Finance has always been quite strong.
00:43:29 And therefore, the growth does not seem to be at the cost of asset quality.
00:43:34 At least that's what one can extrapolate, given the past. And therefore, that number really stands out of 7 percent.
00:43:42 Despite everything that's happening with regard to risk weighted assets, with regard to everything on the policy front as well,
00:43:49 that number really stands out. Your net liquidity surplus is healthy at 11,600,
00:43:54 which is roughly half a quarter worth of liquidity given the current growth rate.
00:43:58 And your deposit book is at 58,000 crore, which is again grown at 35 percent year over year.
00:44:04 So overall, a very strong update, well above the guidance that Bajaj Finance has typically given out.
00:44:10 Indeed, Harsh. It will be interesting to see what happens to the stock because it's been an underperformer all through last year.
00:44:16 In fact, over the last six months, the stock has done 6 percent. Year to date, it's flat in trade.
00:44:22 So a positive reaction is what should be expected.
00:44:25 The guidance turning out to be very solid for Bajaj Finance. Numbers as well, well above what the street was expecting.
00:44:31 Harsh, beyond Bajaj Finance, a whole bunch of other names as well that we'll be tracking.
00:44:35 I believe you've got IndusInd, IEX, Vedanta as well. So big other move was expected.
00:44:42 I think we've lost Harsh. We'll go back to him in a minute.
00:44:46 But we've got Nirav Asher, Head of Equity Research, analyst at Latin Manoharlal joining us this morning.
00:44:53 Nirav, very good morning. I would love to start with the nifty, but because we were talking about Bajaj Finance,
00:44:58 I'll come to you first on Bajaj Finance. Solid sort of reporting in terms of numbers.
00:45:03 Liquidity also record high. The stock, on the other hand, has been a huge underperformer.
00:45:09 Keeping in mind with how it's been for Bajaj Finance, would you buy the stock added to your portfolio at this stage?
00:45:16 Yeah. Thank you for having me on your show. I think it's been a good quarterly update as far as Bajaj Finance is concerned.
00:45:24 And I think hopefully we are at a stage where things should begin to turn around for the stock.
00:45:32 And I think we expect a positive reaction, especially after the strong numbers which have been posted by Bajaj Finance.
00:45:41 And a lot of this will also depend on the quality of the results, because I think the net interest margins and the quality of the bottom line
00:45:54 will also have a bearing on whether we see a fallout buying in the stock.
00:45:59 But for the moment, it's a positive.
00:46:02 Nirav, what's the trend looking like for something like a Bajaj Finance at a point of time when we are looking possibly
00:46:14 at rates coming off and that might be more conducive for one set of financials versus the other, REIT Bank.
00:46:22 So how does this auger, not just for this quarter or today, but for the rest of the year as well?
00:46:28 I think till now what we have seen is that the interest rate cycle has, the interest rates have generally peaked off.
00:46:38 And of course, going forward, there is going to be a pressure on the margins.
00:46:44 So the net interest margins are likely to come under pressure.
00:46:47 And I think the biggest challenge for the banking or the NBFC sector is the deposit mobilization.
00:46:54 And what time lag is there because of the time lag effect, I think there could be a temporary pressure on the margins.
00:47:01 That's what has been the general impression in the markets.
00:47:05 But I think the bigger players like Bajaj Finance should be able to tide over this.
00:47:11 And I think in the next couple of quarters, we should see much better performances as far as the margin trajectory goes.
00:47:19 Hirav, good morning. Tamannaah here. Great to have you on the India Market Open.
00:47:24 I want to get your sense of what kind of a day we're about to have.
00:47:28 So global Qs have been consistently negative, worrying, Fed minutes, crude, etc.
00:47:33 We've spoken about it in detail. Do you think that that overhang will be seen in today's trade and opening?
00:47:40 Or the focus will be more on the business updates and the results coming in for Q4?
00:47:46 While the business updates have been quite positive, but I'd like to point out a few factors.
00:47:56 I think this year itself has started on a very tepid note as far as the markets are concerned.
00:48:02 If you see the first two days, if you see the auto sales numbers, after that we had the cement sales.
00:48:08 And yesterday we had the performance of the metal sector and the IT sector.
00:48:12 Now, if we were to just dissect this performance, post-COVID, we've seen that whenever we analyze any company,
00:48:21 we look at the volume growth, we look at the value growth, and we look at the operating profit margins and we see the cash flows.
00:48:28 What happens is that after COVID, post-COVID, we've seen that the growth has been largely driven by values.
00:48:35 Volume growth has largely been very, very evasive and it continues to remain evasive as far as a lot of sectors and a lot of companies are concerned.
00:48:45 If you look at companies like HUL, they have said very clearly that from Q3 onwards, they expect the volume growth to pick up and the value growth is likely to take a backseat.
00:48:58 Now, that is not happening. We've seen in the auto numbers also, the auto numbers were down because the auto companies were down because the volume growth has largely disappointed.
00:49:09 There was a volume growth in some areas which disappointed, there was value, volume growth, which de-growth, which also disappointed.
00:49:16 So, in the case of Ultratech cement also, I think the volume growth was a disappointment as far as the stock is concerned.
00:49:24 As far as the IT sector is concerned, it was impacted by the global cues and I think the same holds true in the case of metal sector also.
00:49:31 So, if one were to understand these four sectors, I think markets would like to wait till the start of the quarterly earning season so that we can understand what is the volume growth trajectory going forward, whether it can revive or not.
00:49:47 And that would play a very important role as far as the market performance is concerned.
00:49:51 Fair point. So, are those promises being delivered upon is what we will look out for. Nirav, just stay on with us. Harsh is back.
00:49:59 And there have been a slew of business updates in the financial space this morning, IndusInd among them. Harsh, what's on your radar?
00:50:07 Well, yes. So, again, very strong growth numbers clocked by IndusInd and Ujjivan Small Finance. We also saw AU Small Finance numbers come out in terms of their Q3 provisional numbers.
00:50:21 Let me first take you through Ujjivan. Advances up 27%, deposits up 29% year over year.
00:50:28 Now, again, this is one of the very few banks where deposits have outstripped in terms of growth, have outstripped advances.
00:50:34 And that's, again, a positive because your loan to deposit ratio has actually gotten lower, which in this environment is definitely a positive.
00:50:43 So, one to look out for. CASA ratio is falling. No real surprise there for Ujjivan, largely due to the fact that there's a shift to term deposits, which is happening across the industry.
00:50:55 So, that's one counter to look out for. Of course, the merger is also on the anvil. So, that one is an interesting one to look out for.
00:51:03 IndusInd Bank, well, deposit growth 13%, advances growth 20%. Now, advances slightly lower than what the markets were pencilling in, but it's within the guided band of 18 to 23%, which IndusInd has given out.
00:51:17 And the deposit growth slightly tepid. Your loan to deposit ratio is now at least 88.5%. So, that's something that IndusInd will keep their mind out on as to how to pick up on the deposit side of things.
00:51:29 IEX, well, a decent set of numbers, 17% on overall volume in Q3. December overall volume at 15% growth. December electricity volume is up by roughly 9%. That one will be in focus as well.
00:51:44 Let's quickly talk about AU before I go to Vedanta, because Vedanta is a big one. Cross advances for AU up 20%, deposits up 31%. Again, one of the very few which has really outstripped in terms of deposits versus advances growth.
00:51:59 And your CASA has taken or fallen slightly, but otherwise it looks like a solid set from AU. Of course, the growth number is slightly lower, given the lower base that AU has.
00:52:11 Lastly, I want to cover Vedanta as well. Aluminium output is up 6% year over year. Zinc output is actually down. So, Hindustan Zinc may see a bit of that impact, 4% lower year over year. Oil and gas also down 15% year over year.
00:52:27 But the important piece here is the debt restructuring which Vedanta has announced. They've announced that most of the bondholders have agreed, rather 95% plus of bondholders holding maturity of 20, 2024, 2025 and 2026 bonds have agreed to the restructuring.
00:52:44 Of course, terms yet to be decided, but that's a big positive. And they've also intimated exchanges of approval of a 3,400 crore NCD issuance. And therefore, some of the debt that was due and that overhang on the stock may slowly start to go away. So, keep your eye out on Vedanta as well.
00:53:03 Right. That's quite a list and we'll come to all of our experts on those as well. But I want to welcome Amar Deo Singh, Head Advisory at Angel One to the show right now. Good morning, Amar. Tamanna here. Great to have you on the show. Let's start with levels.
00:53:19 We've not had a great start to 2024 thus far. Do you see that weakness persisting and do you see the resistance hitting at 21,600 for the Nifty?
00:53:31 Yeah, very good morning and thank you for having me on the show. So, see, a correction is part of any healthy bull market and that's what we are witnessing. And also, what we saw was a spectacular rally.
00:53:45 So, now I think it's good that we're having some correction because what happens is that there are different types of market participants. So, those who have the different risk-reward ratios, different holding period horizons.
00:53:58 So, from that perspective, we were expecting that there would be some correction. And yeah, it's a, I would say, not a very big correction as of date. It's hardly, if you look at this week, it's 1% or so.
00:54:11 So, yeah, we could see some further correction because on the options data, we see that there has been short build-up and earlier long unwinding was happening.
00:54:20 So, that tells me that there could be further some sort of selling happening. On the downside, we've got some very strong support initially coming at around 21,300-350 zone.
00:54:32 So, that's a zone of support, roughly around 150-200 points from here. And also, what I see is that till the time we don't see it taking out its recent high, so 21,770-21,800.
00:54:46 So, that is going to act as a zone of resistance. On the daily charts, we've seen a tapering off of the momentum. So, that tells me that means it would be more from a trading perspective, but the intermediate long-term trend, they're even extremely strong and positive.
00:55:00 So, that is there. But having said that, I would say one needs to be slightly on the cautious and wait for the levels that gives an opportunity for trading because as I said, the OI data also is pointing that there's some short build-up happening in the system.
00:55:16 And the other thing is that some of the heavyweights, the good part is the heavyweights have been really strong. We saw, we did see some correction in the heavyweights like Reliance and all that.
00:55:26 But apart from that, having said that, I would say most of the heavyweights are still very strong and firm. So, any pullback can be used as a buying opportunity. We were not seeing a trend change as of now.
00:55:36 Okay. But yeah, important advice, wait for the markets to stabilize. It'll be important to understand from Amar at 9.15 what is he doing or maybe at 9.19 once the market stabilizes.
00:55:46 But stay on, gentlemen. Take a quick break. Come back with the pre-open session.
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00:57:19 Back with India market open, the GIFT NIFTY implied open suggests a start which is not too bad. Let's wait and watch how it shapes up. But we have about two minutes left. Amar, can I actually come to you first?
00:57:30 In about a minute and a minute and a half, can you give us your stock recommendations that you have for us this morning?
00:57:36 Yeah, sure. So, the first is from the banking space and that is Axis Bank. So, Axis Bank has been, I would say, delivered extremely strong returns and it continues to remain strong and firm.
00:57:49 However, on the daily charts, we are seeing some sort of consolidation. But it's at very crucial and important support zones with the long-term trend remaining up intact.
00:57:59 So, any pullback in the stock towards 1080, 1085 can be used as a buying opportunity with a stop-loss below 1040 and a target of 1125 on the upside.
00:58:09 And the second stock to look at is Biocoin. This is one stock which has really underperformed if you look at going by how the markets have performed.
00:58:17 But over the last few trading sessions, the stock has really rallied. This week itself, the stock is up by 13% and we've seen some significant increase in volumes over the last couple of trading sessions.
00:58:28 So, that tells me that the trend definitely has changed for the stock and the stock is gaining further momentum.
00:58:33 So, any pullback in the stock at around 275, 277, that can be used as a buying opportunity with a stop-loss of 253 and a target of 315 on the upside.
00:58:44 Okay. So, this is the, the Biocoin is the other one and a big spurt in trade yesterday for Biocoin.
00:58:50 And I must say at some point of time in the show, we'll talk with Nirav about Pharma as well because that's been that one standout pack in trade.
00:58:58 So, that's something to be watched out for. 42 seconds. Actually, we can do that right now while we wait for the pre-open rates.
00:59:03 And Amar, thanks for those ideas. Nirav, what within Pharmaceuticals are you guys at Latin Manoharlal telling your clients to log into and why?
00:59:14 I think we feel that the Pharma is likely to emerge as the dark horse as far as this year is concerned.
00:59:24 And we've seen a lot of stocks on the comeback trail. I think the market conditions have been conducive.
00:59:34 The domestic markets continue to perform well. There has been a kind of a stabilization as far as the US markets are concerned.
00:59:42 The regulatory headwinds which were there, which were impacting the sector have also kind of receded.
00:59:48 And there is a kind of stability which is there in the Pharma sector. I think exports have also begun to look up again.
00:59:56 Domestic markets have been performing well. There is price stability across the board.
01:00:01 And that, I think overall that augurs extremely well for the sector.
01:00:06 If you look at our top pick, I think we've been recommending Ciplac. We have a buy recommendation on Ciplac from 1186 with a target of 1444.
01:00:19 This has been our prime pick as far as the Pharma sector is concerned.
01:00:24 Apart from that, we also like and we have been recommending Lupin, Glenmark Pharma and certain other stocks to our clients.
01:00:36 As far as this sector is concerned, a lot of things are happening in the background also.
01:00:41 We are seeing a lot of private equity money which is coming into a lot of entities which are acquiring small practices across the board
01:00:54 with an intention to consolidate the entire practices and go in for listing over the next four years.
01:01:01 So I think in eye care, we are recommending a small stock called Dr. Agarwal Eye Care which has been doing a lot of consolidation work in the eye care business.
01:01:14 So these are also some of the ideas which we have been looking at and recommending to our clients.
01:01:21 Preopen is indicating to a positive start. So about three tenths of a percent higher is what we have.
01:01:26 Largely in line with what the implied Nifty from Gift Nifty was indicating to 75 points higher closer to 21,600.
01:01:34 I don't think we should get such a big gap up but a positive opening is what's on the cards this morning.
01:01:40 Neeraj, I want to come to you on IT and Infosys in particular.
01:01:44 Neeraj highlighted a couple of big brokerages that have increased their target price on Infy ahead of their earnings on 11th of Jan.
01:01:51 Would you recommend to your clients to build positions on Infosys ahead of numbers?
01:01:56 Actually, as far as IT sector is concerned, our preferred pick is TCS.
01:02:03 We prefer TCS as compared to the peers in the large cap space.
01:02:10 And I think we would like to study the numbers of Infosys and the commentary in particular before taking a call on Infosys.
01:02:20 Amar, you quickly want to comment technically on the charts.
01:02:25 Any IT stocks you'd bet on? I would imagine there'd be a little bit of a pullback on those names today.
01:02:30 Yeah, I would say that TCS is again coming to a very good level because earlier it had rallied towards the 3900 levels,
01:02:40 currently it's on 37. So any pullback in the stock towards the 3600, 3650 level,
01:02:46 that can be a very good buying opportunity from a short-term trading perspective.
01:02:51 Let's quickly talk about the big news story of yesterday and you saw that huge impact on all the Adani stock prices.
01:03:02 Adani Ports also then once again with fundraising news in the highlight and on target.
01:03:10 And all of those stocks will actually be, that stock is actually up 2.5% in pre-open Adani Ports.
01:03:16 But the Adani pack will be in focus once again. I just want to get first Nirav's view on the upside that you see.
01:03:24 I think while yesterday's ruling is very, very positive as far as the entire Adani group is concerned,
01:03:31 but if you were to ask me, we would like to be more selective as far as the stocks are concerned in this Adani group.
01:03:40 So the focus will be on those stocks where there is a strong execution which is happening,
01:03:47 where there is a possibility of very strong cash flows emerging in the near future.
01:03:53 So from that perspective, I think we would like to look particularly at Adani Ports and SEZ.
01:04:00 Adani Power and Ambuja Cements.
01:04:04 Just a quick technical view also with Amar on the entire Adani pack and what is the kind of upside you see.
01:04:12 It's an interesting HSBC report out as well on Adani Ports today.
01:04:17 So if I look at Adani stocks, we've seen some very strong rally here.
01:04:24 And talking about Adani Ports, Adani Ports continues to remain positive on the charts.
01:04:31 So we'll have to watch out for today, for yesterday's high.
01:04:35 That was 1144, 1150. So 1140, 1150, that's going to act as a zone of resistance.
01:04:40 If that is taken out, then the stock is definitely traded higher.
01:04:43 Looking at the other Adani stocks, Adani Power again, that is remaining strong technically on the chart.
01:04:50 So there is a pullback, but it has got resistance coming at around 580 odd levels.
01:04:55 And talking about Adani Enterprises, so this is one stock which is, I would say,
01:05:02 comparatively not as strong as compared to what we are seeing in Adani Power or Adani Ports for that matter.
01:05:09 So this HSBC report specifically has set a target price of 1250 for ports and sees about a 15-16% upside.
01:05:19 And very clearly, the broad line is that now the focus has shifted from governance to performance
01:05:25 because the Supreme Court verdict has sort of put that overhang behind the group company.
01:05:32 Standard disclosure is here, of course, that the channel that you're watching is owned by AMG Media
01:05:37 and is part of the Adani Group. Stay on with us, Neeraj and Amar.
01:05:43 I'm just going across quickly to Anushi, who is joining us with more stocks which are buzzing this morning. Yes, Anushi.
01:05:49 Morning, Tamanna. So I come to you with three stocks. I'll start off with Power Finance Corporation first,
01:05:54 which has signed a MOU worth Rs. 25,000 crore with Gujarat government.
01:06:00 Now, with this, PFC will provide financial backing for generation transmission and distribution projects
01:06:06 and will collaborate to facilitate long-term debt and other critical funding necessities.
01:06:12 Again, with this collaboration in place, it is creating about 10,000 employment opportunities in the state of Gujarat.
01:06:18 If you look at the stock performance, it was one of the multi-wagger stock in the mid-cap category last year,
01:06:24 recording about 219% growth. Now, moving on to Adani Board, the company's board has approved to raise about Rs. 5000 crores via bonds.
01:06:33 Just a quick mention here, another company that is considering raising funds is Satin Credit Care on 8th of January.
01:06:40 So, coming back to Adani Board, along with the fund raise, there is management update as well,
01:06:45 wherein Gautam Adani has been re-designated as the Executive Chairman,
01:06:50 while board has approved Karan Adani as the Managing Director up to May 2027 term.
01:06:58 Now, just again on Adani, the company had revised its volume guidance for the FY24 year to 400 million metric tons
01:07:07 compared to about 370 to 390 million metric ton range that they had provided earlier.
01:07:12 And coming on to our final stock is Chambal Fertilizers and Chemicals, which is considering a buyback on 8th of January.
01:07:20 But just to look at the balance sheet of the company, the company right now holds about a cash of Rs. 525 crores.
01:07:28 And if you look at the net worth and distributed in the 10% and 25% range, 10% net worth stands at about 763 crores,
01:07:35 while the 25% net worth stands at about 1,900 crores.
01:07:40 The stock, if you look at the performance, has been up about 22% in the past year itself.
01:07:45 So, these are the three stocks that you should be watching out for today.
01:07:48 This is extensive. Thank you, Anushi. Three stocks which Anushi has highlighted,
01:07:52 you've got Power Finance, Adani Ports and Chambal Fertilizers.
01:07:56 But I think what's also catching our attention and Neeraj pointed this out is,
01:08:01 look at the numbers, the business update coming from Angel One.
01:08:05 In line, the markets have surged, participation has surged,
01:08:09 and that explains why Angel One's number of clients has actually gone up 60% or more.
01:08:15 It should come up on your screen in a minute. But we will let – there you go.
01:08:18 The stock and pre-open is up 3.5%. It is going to see a big move if they've grown business by nearly 60% year on year.
01:08:25 It is also a precursor of what we can expect from the other guys.
01:08:30 I felt a GM might be reporting very similar numbers on back of what I'm seeing with Angel One's business update.
01:08:35 Sadly, we can't ask Amar Dev about Angel One.
01:08:38 How do you feel about this?
01:08:40 How do you feel about this? Lath and Mananrala might also be having great business.
01:08:43 But Samina, the point is Angel One, aside of other things I'm sure,
01:08:46 is also moved a handle a bit on becoming in the wealth management piece.
01:08:52 Because they now have this mutual fund business for H&R clients, I think they are PMS as well.
01:08:56 So that increases the margin in the stickiness per customer as well, which could be great.
01:09:02 If you look at how banking is played out or the non-lending is played out,
01:09:08 we started with iBanking which was the hottest space.
01:09:12 So you saw companies like the likes of a JM and IFL all going into that.
01:09:15 Then you had the AMC business which became a very sweet spot when you were playing the non-lending space.
01:09:20 But I think from what everyone is saying, it is the wealth advisory pack that is going to create significant value for some of these companies.
01:09:29 And you look at some of those numbers in the rounds, I think a lot of these wealth companies are being valued at 8 to 10x.
01:09:34 It's almost like a tech company to be honest.
01:09:37 And Angel is not. And hence the point, because Anand Rati wealth,
01:09:41 It's the valuation gap which will catch up.
01:09:43 Yeah, Anand Rati wealth with the kind of numbers that it is,
01:09:45 is trading at a far significantly higher valuation multiple than Angel One.
01:09:49 Just to the point that you were making Samina about how this is also reflecting the democratization of stock market investment
01:09:57 and what we have been seeing in the last few years.
01:10:00 And that jump up in the last year when markets were having a phenomenal year is interesting.
01:10:05 The question always is, will the people who have come in more recently stick on?
01:10:09 If the tide comes.
01:10:11 I would imagine that they would stay.
01:10:13 I would imagine so.
01:10:14 Yeah, I mean they should. There is no reason why they should.
01:10:16 Yeah, it's once you go to the markets, never go back.
01:10:19 That's really the truth. Nirav, you want to come in this house, business for you?
01:10:22 Business has been moderately good.
01:10:26 Are you underplaying this?
01:10:28 Yeah, I think markets have been fickle in the past, but often I think it's been quite good.
01:10:37 And I think things can only look much, much better from here going forward.
01:10:43 I just want to quickly come in on some of these non-lending businesses.
01:10:47 I know I put you in the spot by asking you how it's worked for you, but what would you do?
01:10:52 Wealth is really the way a lot of these businesses are going.
01:10:56 I've recently heard about how Bajaj Capital as well has carved out a global wealth arm for itself.
01:11:02 You have the likes of Angel One, like Nirav mentioned, IFL, JM.
01:11:06 I believe there is some, you know, there could be, there is stuff happening on these fronts.
01:11:11 How would you approach some of these businesses in IFL, Angel One, 360,
01:11:16 pardon me, 360, JM for that matter, and Anand Rathi as well, actually, even though I know it's expensive.
01:11:24 So if you were to ask me, I'll just say one thing that advisory is the way forward,
01:11:30 because the next generation, of course, they're far more organized as far as their investments are concerned.
01:11:38 There is the biases and the prejudices which were there previous generation are no longer there as far as the new generation is concerned.
01:11:47 They want to go in for more informed decision making.
01:11:52 They are not hesitant to seek advisory services, etc.
01:11:57 So I think that itself increases the scope for a lot of avenues like mutual funds, PMS services, wealth advisory services, etc.
01:12:08 So I think this is a very, very positive and a healthy trend going forward.
01:12:13 Okay, just about two minutes left. Just want to mark a few things.
01:12:17 So Bajaj Finance, a pre-open session.
01:12:20 Well, Samina wins the bet today.
01:12:23 She didn't wager anything, but the pre-open session is in the green. So that's part one.
01:12:27 By the way, I remember, Samina, you still owe me for the bet that you lost earlier.
01:12:30 What are you talking about?
01:12:31 We'll talk about it after the show.
01:12:32 But yeah, Bajaj Finance has started off well. So that's part one.
01:12:35 And OMCs might be in focus because two brokerages, CLSA and I think Morgan Stanley, have downgraded oil marketing companies.
01:12:42 So watch out for those as well in the session today.
01:12:45 A couple of things to monitor for sure.
01:12:48 Amar, very quickly, Infosys seem to be the talk of town.
01:12:53 I know we asked you about this earlier, but it's starting off just about a percent higher.
01:12:57 Would you trade this one or would you trade Bajaj Finance?
01:13:01 It's starting off two and a half percent higher, Bajaj Finance.
01:13:04 Yeah, I would say going by the charts, Bajaj Finance looks a better bet because Infosys is more of playing around the support zone.
01:13:15 But any pullback should be, one should look at Bajaj Auto, you said, no?
01:13:23 Bajaj Finance or Infosys.
01:13:26 Okay, okay. So Bajaj Finance is one I would say prefer looking at it because it's been in consolidation.
01:13:33 Now we are seeing a breakout from that consolidation.
01:13:36 So the only level to watch out for Bajaj Finance on the upside is somewhere around 76.40, 76.50.
01:13:43 That's a key zone of resistance. Once that is taken out, then the stock is definitely headed higher towards the 8000 levels.
01:13:50 Okay, we have about 40 seconds left for the market open.
01:13:54 Amardev, your top technical call for the day today, one stock that you would bet on today morning.
01:14:00 I would say that I would recommend Biocon because I had spoken about it earlier.
01:14:05 This is one stock, definitely it's changed its trend and we could see the stock rallying towards the 315-320 mark.
01:14:12 Once it starts sustaining over the current levels.
01:14:15 Okay, watch out for Biocon. That is the top call. Gentlemen, stay on. We'll take in your opening thoughts.
01:14:21 And before we let you go, but about 18 seconds left for the markets to kickstart trade.
01:14:26 Keep in mind that Infosys to an extent the oil marketing companies on the nifty the Adani twins,
01:14:32 but the broader end of the spectrum, the Adani greens, Adani total gases of the world will also be in focus.
01:14:37 And keep a keen eye out for what's happening to stocks like Bharat Forge and MM Forging because the class A truck sales haven't looked very impressive.
01:14:45 But here are the first trades. 82 points higher for the nifty 21589.
01:14:51 If this is how it shapes up during the course of the day, by the way, it's coming off.
01:14:55 But if this is how it shapes up during the course of the day, then you certainly see dips getting bought into.
01:15:01 Let's bring up the nifty bank and nifty IT. More importantly, nifty bank today is still a lot sanguine.
01:15:06 And yesterday, too, by the way, the nifty bank outperformed, but the nifty IT is adding weight.
01:15:11 Point seven percent higher. Clearly, those brokerage calls seem to have had an impact.
01:15:15 Pull up the mid caps and the small caps very quickly before we go to the heat map.
01:15:19 Half a percent for the mid cap index, the small cap index, half a percent as well.
01:15:23 The outperformance continues there. Bring up the heat map and see what's moving.
01:15:27 It has to be IT and the Bajaj twins. OK, so Bajaj Finance and Bajaj FinServ doing very well.
01:15:32 I must say Bajaj Holdings and Maharashtra Scooters are having a field day.
01:15:36 Yesterday they were up because of Bajaj Auto. Today they might be up because of the Bajaj Finance update.
01:15:41 Three percent higher for Bajaj Finance now. Clearly the standout stock.
01:15:45 The other one is Adani Ports, one and a half percent higher. Carrying on from yesterday, I would say,
01:15:49 but maybe the HSBC note also adds a bit of flavor and enforces about one and a half percent, too.
01:15:54 So there is merit there. By the way, JP Morgan has upgraded Tata Motors to a target price of 930.
01:15:59 So the stock that doubled in 2023 continues on its merry ways as well.
01:16:04 That's amongst the top three gainers now on the index.
01:16:07 So the top five on the index all have reason for gaining the way they have today.
01:16:13 That's the great news. A lot more green, very little red. BPCL down today.
01:16:18 Downgrade by two brokerages on the oil marketing companies. I suspect HP and IOC, too, could be lower.
01:16:24 There is weakness in Bajaj Auto after the big push of yesterday's session.
01:16:28 But that's about it on the losers. Oil marketing companies on one side.
01:16:32 To an extent, HCL Tech, which also saw a downgrade, Morgan Stanley is down.
01:16:36 But the winners, the Bajaj twins, Adani Port now up two percent, enforces and Tata Motors.
01:16:42 Good, solid start for the markets. Tamanna, how are the broader end of the spectrum looking?
01:16:46 Also looking positive. Also looking positive. So, you know, the global Q is not having such a negative impact as could have been expected.
01:16:54 Perhaps as Samina says, that India is definitely leading the way.
01:16:58 Let's take a look at the entire Adani pack. And I know we talked about Adani ports as well.
01:17:03 But, you know, you're seeing the bump up from yesterday persistent Adani total on the top of that list this morning with a three and a half, four percent rise that we are seeing.
01:17:17 I'll just look at Vedanta very quickly. Some of the stocks and news that we spoke about and marked out in the beginning of trade.
01:17:24 Vedanta has got, I would say, a lifeline, a sigh of relief on their consent of bondholders.
01:17:32 So they have pushing, they're pushing forward that date. So as a newsmaker, Vedanta is doing fairly well.
01:17:37 One percent up this morning. Indus and Bank, I was keen to see because business update and three brokerage notes with a whole range of target prices.
01:17:46 Jeffrey is the most positive of all on them. But yeah, the stock moving. OK, not too much.
01:17:52 So we'll have to wait and see how those business updates really pair out.
01:17:57 LIC, one more that I will pull up. They've got GST and tax penalty demands from four states, actually Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Gujarat as well.
01:18:06 Total of six hundred and sixty seven crore rupees. Not too much difference over there.
01:18:10 And just Zomato, Zomato, because it has been in a lot of focus and there was a bit of news on its step down subsidiary in Poland initiating liquidation.
01:18:20 So those are some of the stocks that are doing OK, but no massive buzzers this morning that I have spotted.
01:18:27 Samina, anything on your list? There are a few names, Samina, which aren't doing too badly.
01:18:31 Torrent Power, that stock is the biggest gainer across the broader market. Six and a half, seven percent gains on the stock.
01:18:37 Remember, they signed an MOU worth forty seven thousand three hundred and fifty crores with the Gujarat government.
01:18:43 This name came through yesterday. The stock continuing to gain, continuing to gain on that seven percent higher,
01:18:50 seven and a half, almost eight percent now on Torrent Power is what we have.
01:18:54 Ujjain Small Finance, they've said that they're focusing on growing the secured portfolio with the highest ever
01:19:01 called to be disbursement in the affordable housing segment. Now they're playing a high growth segment.
01:19:07 The stock reacting well to that update coming from Ujjain Small Finance Bank.
01:19:13 The stock is up five percent as we speak. Bajaj Finance, those numbers were fantastic for the quarter.
01:19:20 Markets giving it a thumbs up if it wasn't Bajaj Auto yesterday.
01:19:24 Remember, the other reason that's also driving the Bajaj counters higher, which was in the news yesterday,
01:19:29 but still the euphoria continues is the buyback that the family is going, the company is going to do on back of that.
01:19:36 All the Bajaj names are up in the Bajaj Finance only aiding those gains after posting stellar numbers.
01:19:42 Apart from that, you've got Adani Total that continues to look good. Angel One on one of its best ever quarters.
01:19:48 They've added 60 percent increase in their client base year on year. On back of that, the stock is up three percent.
01:19:56 They've pulled up JMIFL as well, because that will give you a sense of how the whole industry is really playing out.
01:20:02 JM is up one percent. IFL should continue to do well as well. Half a percent higher.
01:20:07 Anand Rati, if you want to pull that one up, should also help you get a sense of what the industry is looking at.
01:20:12 Fertilizers continue to do well. Chambal, of course, on back of the buyback is doing well.
01:20:17 This is the third straight day running. You're seeing the fertilizer pack actually trade.
01:20:21 We've been calling it sector rotation. Not sure what's on the anvil, but all your stocks, be it GSFC, Chambal, FACT, all those counters trading.
01:20:29 Deepak Fertilizer up any in the range of one to three, four percent each. RCF is up two percent.
01:20:35 Yeah, across the board, that space looks good. We will try and dwell and understand what's happening here.
01:20:40 But for now, that pack looks good. Neeraj has mentioned how Infi is looking good and that's leading the way up.
01:20:46 I did think earlier as well that the pullback could be led by the IT pack and that's what's happening.
01:20:52 A couple of brokerage upgrades on Infosys, the positive emotion spreads across the broad IT pack
01:20:57 and all your IT stocks are actually seeing some buying ahead of the earnings season.
01:21:01 All in all, it's not a bad looking market. We have seen a little bit of a pop this morning.
01:21:06 Bank Nifty IT, you want them to continue to support the index on a more reliable and consistent basis.
01:21:12 But if that happens, I wouldn't put it past us to actually close about 21,600.
01:21:18 I am not sticking my neck out, but I think that could be a possibility.
01:21:21 And of course, a quick one, OMCs are under pressure. So, down back of the three percent rise in crude, IOC, BPCL, HPCL, all getting whacked.
01:21:29 Also, the two brokerage downgrades that have come in, both CLSA as well as Morgan Stanley,
01:21:34 are tactically downgrading all marketing companies. The other factor, I don't know if we marked Bandhan Bank.
01:21:40 We did, because that stock was up five percent yesterday and the Q3 update is looking OK.
01:21:45 So, it's carrying on from where it left off yesterday. So, good going there as well.
01:21:51 Actually, quick opening thoughts and a few stocks which are carrying forth from yesterday.
01:21:55 Amar, and of course, your opening thought on what you do with the index predominantly,
01:21:59 but also couple that up with a view on Bandhan Bank.
01:22:02 Yeah, sure. Thank you. So, index, definitely, as I said, that we should be on the buying side.
01:22:08 Don't look at any weakness as a, I would say, a trend change.
01:22:14 It's more of a profit booking that's happening at the level. So, any pullback is to be used as a buying opportunity.
01:22:19 The range which I spoke about, 21,500 on the downside, 21,800 on the upside, that's the range to be looked at.
01:22:26 Daily charts are indicating some sort of consolidation. Talking about Bandhan Bank,
01:22:31 what we see is that Bandhan Bank is again one stock which really hasn't delivered returns because the stock had corrected from almost 700 to concentrate around 250, 256 odd levels.
01:22:42 But now we are seeing a trend change in the stock. But a crucial level to watch out for Bandhan Bank would be around, I would say, 265, 270.
01:22:51 That's a very strong zone of resistance. Once the stock starts sustaining above that level,
01:22:56 then you can expect the stock to rally towards the 320, 350 level. So, that's the level to watch out for, 265, 275.
01:23:03 That's a major zone of resistance for Bandhan Bank.
01:23:07 Yeah, absolutely. Just another sector that's firing this morning is real estate stocks once again.
01:23:13 Look at Shobha. Shobha up 5%, Brigade, Macrotech, the entire pack seeing a really good pump up.
01:23:22 Even the index now sitting pretty over 21,600. So, not a bad start to the morning at all.
01:23:29 Nirav, just a quick word on real estate. There's already been a massive run up. But are there any favourites over there?
01:23:38 Yeah, but if you were to ask me, I think the best is yet to come as far as the real estate sector is concerned.
01:23:46 And I think, as we have indicated earlier, that there are certain sectors like railways and defence, etc.
01:23:54 I think real estate would also come in the same category where we could see a multi-year bull run.
01:24:03 This is on account of the fact that preferences have been changing, the customers have become more demanding,
01:24:09 there is a lot of corporatisation which has taken place in the sector, a lot of things being streamlined, etc.
01:24:16 So, a lot of stocks which look very, very good, especially the likes of Godrej Properties, DLF, which has made a very, very strong comeback, Century Textiles, etc.
01:24:30 So, the list is quite big. In the smaller space, we like MAN Infra Construction, we like Ajmera Realty, etc.
01:24:39 So, I think real estate is a very, very exciting space going forward.
01:24:44 Fertilisers, anything happening there? Last three days, there's been a lot of buying in on good volumes in the fertiliser pack.
01:24:50 Of course, today is Chambal Fertilisers, but from your RCF, FAG, GCFC, Chambal, all those counters are up 10-12,
01:24:58 actually no, maybe 15-20% in the last three days. Would you buy this tactically?
01:25:03 Not at the moment. I think we would like to wait and watch, at least for the quarterly results and the commentary from the companies. Not at the moment.
01:25:14 Okay, so that's the view from Nirav on that bucket.
01:25:21 The other aspect, I wonder if Bharat Forge and MM Forgings, etc. have started off lower because the updates, the truck sales haven't been that great.
01:25:32 The Class 8 truck sales are, I think, at some 40-month low or thereabouts. Not so much for MM Forgings, but Bharat Forge certainly starting off lower.
01:25:39 Ram Krishna Forgings is the other one that should come up on your screen as well because that's the other one that supplies in the US market.
01:25:46 And both Bharat Forge and maybe RK Forgings could be slightly lower. No, RK Forgings is doing okay for itself. So, let's wait and watch.
01:25:54 Okay, Nirav, we haven't asked your fundamental idea today, thus far. If you had to give one recommendation as a brokerage house, one, out of the many, that your house is telling your clients to buy right now, which one would that be?
01:26:09 I think we'll go with Nestle because the Jan 5th record date is quite near. The stock goes in for a split. And I think after the split, we will see a lot of opportunities as far as growth is concerned. I think we'll go with Nestle for the time being.
01:26:28 Nestle, pure defensive FMCG player is the top idea from Nirav Ashar and Latin Manalal Securities. Quite something. Okay, wonder how it looks on the chart, Samar. FMCG, the last two days of December showed a bit of spunk. Since then, it's been rather quiet. Nestle or any of the other FMCG names?
01:26:52 Yeah, I would say if I look at the FMCG names, Britannia also looks positive and strong on the chart. So, currently we are witnessing some sort of correction there. That's a healthy correction. But any pullback in the stock can be used as a buying opportunity.
01:27:08 The stock has got strong support coming around the 5100-5150 level. So, any pullback towards those levels can be used as a buying opportunity. The level to watch out for Britannia on the upside, I would say, is it needs to sustain further above the 5200 mark. Then the stock can rally towards the 5350-5400 levels. The long-term trend continues to remain extremely strong and positive for most of the FMCG stocks.
01:27:35 Okay, just a quick look at what's happening with Angel One and we discussed it and the business update numbers before opening. That's stock up 7%. Nirav, I just wanted a quick word from you on the OMC pack before we let you go. A slew of factors, brokerage reports, but also what's happening with the Red Sea crisis and what it means for crude prices as a bit of a risk factor building there. Do you see this as a buying opportunity or would you stay away for now?
01:28:04 Actually, it could be a buying opportunity because what we have seen is that the crude oil prices tend to move in a range. We've seen that whenever the crude oil prices are coming an inch closer to $85-90, there's been a lot of pressure as far as the buyers are also concerned.
01:28:23 So, the emerging markets, we can see quite a lot of pressure on the emerging markets on how to balance their budgets and make purchases of this crude oil. So, I think the crude oil is best, it tends to find its equilibrium when it is in the range of $75-80.
01:28:44 So, I think going forward, we should see the prices again inch downwards towards $75 and that equilibrium, if it is sustained, I think it augurs very well as far as the oil marketing companies are concerned. So, I think one should start buying into the OMCs at lower levels.
01:29:03 Thank you so much for that, Nirav and Amar today on a market that's looking not bad at all on opening, so bucking global trends in a sense, I would say. But we'll take a very short break. On the other side, we have a fantastic interview coming up. Habil Khurrakiwala, founder and chairman at Wauke Heart will be joining us. So, stay tuned.
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