Hitung Mundur Penutupan Perdagangan Tahun 2023
Posisi IHSG di akhir perdagangan hari Kamis makin bersinar mengantarkan IHSG naik 57 poin (+0,80%) tembus kembali ke posisi 7.300-san. Kurs rupiah menguat 0,08% terhadap USD ke posisi Rp15.417
Jangan lewatkan update perdagangan terakhir (Countdown Penutupan Perdagangan Thn 2023).
Jangan lewatkan update perdagangan terakhir (Countdown Penutupan Perdagangan Thn 2023).
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TVTranscript
00:00 Countdown to the last closing of the trade in 2023.
00:04 And to discuss this, we have Mr. Michael Yeo, a real estate practitioner from IDX Channel Jakarta.
00:10 How are you, Mr. Michael?
00:11 I'm good, how are you, Mike?
00:12 Thank you for having us here at IDX Channel, in our studio today.
00:18 Because if we talk to you, we can only talk through Zoom.
00:21 Online.
00:22 Okay, welcome.
00:23 But let's talk about the dynamics of the market in 2023 in one word, in your opinion.
00:32 Or one word, if it's one word, it's too much.
00:36 In one word, how does the market move in 2023?
00:40 Maybe I'll say, in one word, amazing.
00:43 Amazing, what makes it amazing?
00:45 Amazing in a good way or...
00:46 In a good way.
00:47 Not so good way.
00:48 In a good way.
00:49 Why? Because when the news about the recession was haunting throughout 2023,
00:54 when the news of war, then a lot of uncertainty that happened globally,
00:58 but the ISG managed to break through the level of 7,300,
01:01 alias, a little more, to touch the all-time high, around 7,380.
01:06 Okay, it means that the ISG is proven to have resiliency,
01:09 and it is also driven by several sectors.
01:13 Okay, if I may know, does this mean that Mr. Michael is a full-time trader or investor,
01:19 or is there another business, or what?
01:21 At the moment, I do have several businesses that I can delegate,
01:24 and at the moment, I have more time to be a full-time trader or investor.
01:29 Okay, if you look at how the movement of the ISG has been throughout 2023,
01:35 is there a diversification from the investment portfolio,
01:41 which was previously mostly applied or maybe only distributed for trading,
01:48 but then for those who have a little longer investment period,
01:52 or is there a shift throughout 2023, Mr. Michael?
01:55 Yes, if we look at the movement of the ISG,
01:58 especially since this year, we have a lot of IPO and emittance that can be said to have a high market cap,
02:05 and that makes their movement much more volatile,
02:08 why? Because the free float is small.
02:10 And this volatile movement is much more suitable if we diversify the portfolio to their portion,
02:17 which is the larger trading portion.
02:20 Okay, the larger trading portion and also the shorter period.
02:24 Yes, a little longer.
02:25 Okay, but it also depends on the condition of the fundamentals of a company.
02:28 If you are really sure, just enter a larger percentage, the rest is just trading.
02:35 It depends on the risk profile of each investor.
02:37 Right, okay.
02:38 Yesterday, the ISG entered the level of 7,300 in the trading closing on Thursday.
02:45 How much was the share?
02:47 Not bad.
02:48 Not bad, but is it true that from your point of view,
02:51 as a market practitioner, when the ISG entered a new level,
02:56 a new record, and so on,
02:57 does it produce a share or is it dependent on certain sectors, actually, in the collection?
03:02 So why did I say that the ISG is amazing in 2023?
03:07 Because the ISG is driven by only a few stocks,
03:12 or only a few sectors whose weight is so large that it affects,
03:17 it can be said, 50 or 70% of the movement of the ISG.
03:20 As an example, 15% of the movement of the ISG is driven by new IPO stocks.
03:27 Hmm, okay.
03:28 15% driven by the stocks of Mr. Pangestu.
03:32 Yes, it means that this is also quite significant, right?
03:35 New IPO stocks, if a few times ago,
03:38 maybe there was an opinion that said, "Well, the IPO has not yet been seen,
03:44 what is the historical? "
03:46 It means that, in terms of trust from investors, there is not too much trust.
03:50 But in 2023, it turns out that the ISG is driven by new IPO stocks.
03:56 How does this affect your point of view
03:59 related to the stocks that will be IPO next year?
04:03 Okay, so, first it must be noted that
04:07 not all IPO stocks will be the same,
04:09 or will act the same as existing stocks.
04:12 So, for you to be aware,
04:15 so you must see how the fund allocation is,
04:19 then how many percent of the free float is in the market,
04:22 then how big is the market cap.
04:24 That's important, sir.
04:25 Hmm, okay.
04:26 It must then be further analyzed, right?
04:30 And also thoroughly investigated,
04:32 to really know what stocks you will collect later.
04:36 Okay, speaking of the strengthening of the ISG itself,
04:38 the Asian market also grew in the last trade.
04:42 What drives this?
04:44 And how long does it seem to be enough to be a backup
04:46 for the last trade today, Mr. Michael?
04:49 Right, so, if we say the window dressing effect in December,
04:53 it's starting to show, and that's one of the things that happened yesterday.
04:56 Well, today, maybe in a little while, it will be open, it will be visible.
05:00 Well, one of the things that drives the Asian market,
05:03 it can be green, yesterday, there was a statement that said
05:07 that the potential for the flower breeding in the future will be greater.
05:11 Because this is what we are waiting for.
05:12 The flower breeding will have a good impact on the emerging market countries,
05:17 including us, and especially Asia.
05:19 Why? Because all this time, the central bank in Asia,
05:23 it's a gamble, a gamble to balance the gil that is in the Fed right now,
05:28 which is around 5% more.
05:30 Logically, if we bring that, it will be difficult to prevent our currency.
05:35 Hmm, okay.
05:37 Yes, that's interesting, and it's related to the MSCI index and Asia Pacific,
05:40 also outside Japan, it's up 1.4%, and added 11% in the last two months,
05:44 which also seems to add more optimism,
05:49 that then, maybe it will be closed at the level of 7,300 and above.
05:54 What do you think today, at what level?
05:56 At 7,200 and below.
05:59 7,200 and above, but not above 7,300.
06:02 Okay, so what is the most reasonable projection?
06:06 The most reasonable, in my opinion.
06:07 What then makes you, Michael, not too optimistic,
06:12 will be at the level of 7,300, yes, like this today?
06:14 Well, first, the IHSG position is already very high,
06:18 if we compare it with November until now.
06:20 It's already overbought, right?
06:21 It's already overbought, and one more thing, it should be noted that
06:24 right now, the inflow is only in the banking sector,
06:29 aka big banks, while other sectors still have capital outflow.
06:33 This day, sorry, last week, the IHSG recorded net foreign outflow.
06:39 But likely, there are some stocks that drive the IHSG to reach 7,300.
06:45 So if I look at it now, the position of 7,300 is quite high,
06:49 quite risky to be actually taking profit.
06:52 Okay, for the banks themselves, don't go in yet,
06:55 because the price for 2024 is waiting for correction first, or what?
06:59 Correction, yes.
07:00 So I think the inflation of the flower family next year
07:03 will also give profit to our banks.
07:06 Okay, worth waiting for, yes.
07:08 Worth waiting for the correction.
07:09 Okay, one thing I also want to know from you, Michael,
07:11 is from your trading experience, or maybe investing for 2023,
07:15 which is the most impressive?
07:17 And did you have the chance to collect stocks that,
07:20 in a correction way, in 2023, you had a deep correction,
07:24 and then you were nervous, and what was done at that time?
07:27 We will discuss the next topic, Mr. Michael.
07:29 And with us, we will be back soon.
07:32 Thank you for still joining us.
07:34 The Minister and I are still discussing with Mr. Michael Yeoh,
07:37 a real estate market practitioner.
07:38 And as I continue, there are some data that we will observe first,
07:42 including the opening of the main Asian exchanges.
07:44 This morning, we can see on the television screen
07:48 for the main Asian exchanges,
07:50 the opening of the Nikkei Mix,
07:52 the opening of 0.33% weakness at level 33,430.41.
07:57 Meanwhile, the Singapore STI,
07:58 a 0.61% strengthening at level 3,233.92.
08:03 The Korea TOSPI,
08:05 a 1.6% strengthening at level 2,655.26.
08:09 And also the Hong Kong Hang Seng,
08:11 a 2.52% strengthening at level 2,655.26.
08:14 And we will move to the top five net foreign buy stocks
08:19 in 2023.
08:21 I will discuss this with Mr. Michael Yeoh.
08:25 There is BBRI with net foreign buy,
08:28 the value is 5.4 trillion rupiah,
08:30 and the strengthening is 15.89% year-to-date.
08:35 Then there is BBNI with net foreign buy,
08:38 the value is 3.4 trillion rupiah,
08:41 the strengthening is 15.19% year-to-date,
08:45 AMMN with 2.5 trillion rupiah,
08:47 with 1.55% movement.
08:50 Then there is ICBP,
08:52 the value is 2.1 trillion rupiah,
08:55 and the strengthening is 6.5%.
08:58 Then there is Film with 1.4 trillion rupiah,
09:02 and the strengthening is 6.34% year-to-date.
09:08 Okay, we can discuss about net foreign sale now.
09:16 Okay, for net foreign sale,
09:18 you can also see that
09:20 many foreign investors have released
09:23 United Tractors with volume or value.
09:27 Net foreign sale is 1.3 trillion.
09:30 Then INCO 1.2 trillion,
09:33 BTPS 1.1 trillion,
09:35 and Pegasus 1.1 trillion,
09:37 and then there is Emtel with 931.2 billion.
09:41 I can talk with Michael.
09:46 I went to net foreign sale first.
09:48 Did you go to the previous questions?
09:50 No, I didn't.
09:51 Okay, but it connects to my question before we end.
09:56 The most interesting experience in 2023
09:58 from the point of view of Michael as a trader and investor.
10:02 What is it? You went to a stock that had a deep correction,
10:05 you were nervous,
10:06 then what was done at that time?
10:08 So, I have an outlook in 2023 from January,
10:12 that the motor of the IHSK movement,
10:14 the winner of outperform is the bank.
10:16 And thank God, it's true, the bank.
10:19 But I'm a little disappointed,
10:21 I'm a little disappointed with my idealism, my plan,
10:24 because I'm interested in seeing new IPO stocks.
10:27 And that stock is Mr. Pargido Pangestu's stock.
10:30 One of the brands.
10:31 What made you quite sure at that time?
10:33 Because historically, traders are very careful,
10:39 because it hasn't been formed yet.
10:41 What made you sure?
10:44 So, there is a rumor that the brand will enter the MSCI.
10:47 That's interesting to me,
10:48 because with the free float brand that IPO is only 3%,
10:52 whereas the minimum free float rule is 6.5%.
10:56 But because the market cap of the brand is quite large,
10:58 finally, with a 3% value, it can be done IPO.
11:03 And there are 3 conditions to enter the MSCI.
11:06 The first is market cap, the second is liquidity,
11:09 and the third is free float.
11:10 And I'm pretty sure that the free float brand at that time
11:13 was too low to enter the MSCI.
11:16 So, I see there is a potential that this stock will get liquidity
11:20 and good inflow from foreign,
11:22 as a condition for it to enter the MSCI index.
11:24 Okay, and it meets the 3 conditions?
11:27 For now, the market cap is already there,
11:29 the liquidity is there, but the free float is not.
11:31 So, there will be an additional free float potential,
11:33 and that's most likely, in my view, is at the higher price, not below.
11:37 Okay, enter the IPO stock, but then in a positive way.
11:42 Positive, yes.
11:43 And then there's the negative?
11:45 The negative, I've been hit, sir.
11:46 So, I was one of the IPO stocks,
11:48 and it turned out that the big crash,
11:50 and on the first day, there were a lot of outflows.
11:53 The investors responded negatively to the big crash.
11:56 Okay, and now it's released, or still holding?
11:58 Yes, sir, on the first day, it's released.
12:00 Okay, thank God, at least at the end of the year,
12:02 we can float without thinking about the ones that are still stuck.
12:05 Okay, the most important thing is actually
12:07 when there is a very extreme volatility.
12:09 If it goes up, I don't think it needs to be asked again.
12:12 I will be very happy.
12:13 But if it goes down significantly,
12:15 from the point of view of the capital market,
12:18 investors and also traders,
12:19 what can be done to minimize it?
12:22 Minimize the risk, right?
12:24 So, every trader or investor,
12:26 they must have what is called a drawdown.
12:28 What is a drawdown?
12:29 A drawdown is the maximum amount of equity that can be grossed.
12:32 For example, if I have 100 million,
12:34 if I make my drawdown 10%,
12:36 my maximum loss is 10 million.
12:38 So, whatever my position is,
12:40 no matter how much it is minus,
12:42 as long as it doesn't exceed 10 million, that's totally fine.
12:45 But if it's past 10 million,
12:46 whether it's minus 10%, 20%, 30%,
12:48 as long as it's passed the drawdown,
12:50 then we have to limit the risk.
12:52 And drawdowns for every investor are different.
12:55 Okay, and you have your own size.
12:58 I have my own size.
12:59 Okay, that's very interesting.
13:01 We also saw earlier that Samsung
13:03 entered the net foreign buy line.
13:07 And year-to-date,
13:08 there was a significant increase in stock prices.
13:11 Have you ever entered Samsung
13:13 that has received significant attention from foreign players?
13:17 Yes, and that's my biggest portfolio.
13:20 I'm the overweight in Samsung's net foreign buy line.
13:23 Okay, so I'm the one who will be copying after this.
13:25 Oh, yes.
13:26 Just kidding.
13:28 Okay, so at that time,
13:30 if we look at the stock price,
13:34 for those who have accumulated net foreign buy,
13:38 what was the consideration at that time?
13:40 Have you ever met a Samsung that entered the net foreign buy line,
13:42 but when it's about to enter,
13:44 it's already overbought, it's already expensive.
13:46 Are you still confident that you can enter?
13:48 Because at the end of the year,
13:50 this will enter the stock price line
13:52 that will become a net foreign buy.
13:54 Okay, so banking is one of my choice sectors in 2023.
13:59 Why?
14:00 We can be protected from the destruction of large banks
14:03 that happen abroad.
14:05 We just mention Silicon Valley,
14:07 we mention Credit Suisse,
14:09 First Republic,
14:11 even stated as a pilot.
14:13 Why?
14:14 Because their exposure is too big to bonds, to UST.
14:18 Then we see,
14:20 when it happens, when foreign banks collapse,
14:23 it turns out to be the opposite of the banks in Indonesia.
14:26 It turns out that our financial system is so strong
14:29 that it turns out that the debt in our banks
14:33 is printing double digits.
14:35 And there I see that there is a potential gap in net interest margin.
14:38 So when foreign banks lose,
14:42 our net interest margin will increase.
14:45 This increase will attract foreign eyes
14:48 to enter our banks.
14:51 Because as a note,
14:53 one of our banks has the largest net interest margin in Asia.
14:57 Okay, NIM yourself,
14:59 or you also see there are fundamental indicators
15:01 about the economy of Indonesia too?
15:03 The first one.
15:04 Which affects the growth of the banking sector.
15:06 Right, because inflation in Indonesia is very, very maintained.
15:10 The second is that our GDP grows above 5%.
15:13 According to the outlook of economic growth
15:15 made by Bloomberg.
15:17 Okay, interesting.
15:18 We will continue the next segment.
15:20 Maybe after this we will discuss
15:22 whether there are events or maybe
15:25 other things that happen in business
15:27 that are quite attractive to you
15:29 throughout 2023.
15:30 We will discuss the next segment.
15:32 And of course, with us, we will be back soon.
15:34 Thank you for still joining us.
15:35 And I'm still talking to Michael Yeo,
15:38 a practitioner from the capital market.
15:40 If we talk about the events
15:42 that happened in the Indonesian stock market
15:44 throughout 2023,
15:46 which one captured your attention the most, Mas Michael?
15:50 Yes, so if I talk about
15:53 what attracted my attention the most in 2023,
15:55 I can say there are two.
15:57 The first is with the IPO from companies
16:00 whose market cap is large,
16:02 it gives a new face to the IHSG movement.
16:07 The second is the restructuring of Gotoh,
16:09 one of our largest e-commerce companies in Indonesia.
16:12 And that slightly gives volatility to the stock market.
16:15 Okay, because it does have a large market cap
16:18 and gives a significant impact to the IHSG.
16:21 Okay, let's talk about the future expectations
16:24 for stocks that have large capitalization.
16:28 And also your projection or maybe
16:31 how do you see this becoming an interesting stock
16:34 to be collected in the future?
16:37 So the future is quite challenging, Mas.
16:39 If we are in the high interest rate era in 2023,
16:43 in 2024 there is a potential that
16:45 this interest rate will even start to be cut.
16:47 And that means we will see again
16:50 stocks that have advantages
16:52 or are sensitive to interest rates.
16:54 That's what concerns me the most.
16:56 Okay, good.
16:57 It's being noticed, that's what concerns you.
17:00 Okay, let's go to the opening of the IHSG this morning.
17:03 Today, the share price is at 9.5.
17:08 The IHSG is still in the green zone
17:12 with the level at 7,300,
17:15 or 7,304.587.
17:17 Some of the stocks that entered the Top Gainers list
17:20 are Java, SRAJ, AIMS, SMMT, DMMX,
17:25 Suri, TOBA, IOTF, JARR,
17:28 and also Top Losers,
17:30 such as Kayu, MPRO, ADARO, AEGS, MAYA,
17:33 PDS, CLEO, AWAN, LPCK, and MGRO.
17:38 Okay, Mas Michael, let's continue the discussion.
17:42 If we talk about things that seem to be still a concern,
17:46 it's related to property in China.
17:48 This also seems to have a significant impact
17:52 on the dynamics of the global market.
17:55 Until now, this has been a concern in 2024,
17:58 and it will be reflected in 2023.
18:01 In 2024, one of the keys to the growth of the IHSG
18:07 is the recovery of the economy in China.
18:10 Since 2021 in Q2,
18:13 the property sector in China has contracted.
18:17 This means that if in 2024 in Q2,
18:20 the economy still drops,
18:22 it means that for three years,
18:24 the economic growth in China has been in the negative zone.
18:28 Why is this a concern?
18:30 Maybe if we compare it to Indonesia, it's a little different.
18:33 Because in China, their GDP is 22-25%
18:38 donated by the property sector.
18:40 So the fall of the property sector,
18:44 starting from the Evergrande case in China,
18:46 it does have a significant economic impact on China.
18:50 Okay, so it's still a concern for the market,
18:53 what will happen in China,
18:55 what are the anticipated steps that can be taken,
18:57 especially for certain sectors that are affected by the Chinese economy?
19:01 This is our anticipation.
19:03 First, we have to be aware of the multiple effects
19:08 of the drop in property in China.
19:10 One of them is the demand for export.
19:13 So when the property in China drops,
19:15 our demand for export to China will also decrease.
19:19 That will most likely happen in the commodity sector.
19:22 And that has been reflected throughout 2023.
19:25 We hope that in 2024, there will be a recovery.
19:28 Okay, for the commodities sector,
19:30 which has already diversified the market,
19:32 and then the concern in China,
19:34 maybe in terms of outlook, it's still positive.
19:37 That might be one thing that investors have to choose.
19:43 Okay, for 2023,
19:46 what lessons can be learned from the movement in the ISG,
19:51 the dynamics of the global market,
19:53 from your point of view as a model market practitioner?
19:56 This might be an inspiration for the new investors out there.
20:01 Okay, so in 2023,
20:04 there was a lot of uncertainty in the market.
20:07 But it turns out that the winners in the market
20:10 are the stocks that provide certainty,
20:12 that provide certainty in the market,
20:14 aka the positive bottom line,
20:16 and that provide dividends that have the best growth.
20:18 So, the lesson learned in 2023 is that
20:21 a stock can go up as fast as possible,
20:25 or go down as deep as possible.
20:26 Sorry, a stock can go up as fast as possible,
20:28 or go up as high as possible,
20:30 but the growth that is sustained,
20:32 the growth that we can hold in the long run,
20:36 is always the one that holds the good fundamentals.
20:38 Okay, so you will be a full investor, you won't trade?
20:41 Oh, amen.
20:43 Okay, good.
20:45 If we talk about the most interesting sectors,
20:48 for 2023, and also 2024,
20:52 which one?
20:54 Okay, so if we look at the winners in the 2023 sector,
20:58 it's the banks.
21:00 I see a massive growth in 2024.
21:03 Because the flower branching will be done gradually,
21:06 it won't jump like that.
21:10 At the moment, Indonesia's flower branch is at 6%,
21:12 and there is an outlook that
21:14 BI Bank will branch the flower branch at about 75% BPS.
21:18 And this gradual cut will of course not have too much impact on the banking sector.
21:23 Then, the flower branching will of course give benefits to the property sector.
21:29 Where 90% of property sales are mostly using KPR.
21:33 So the lower the flower branch,
21:35 it will lure the public to buy property.
21:39 There is also an initiative from the government.
21:42 The third one that I will pay attention to,
21:44 one of the black horse is the sector related to technology.
21:48 Because the technology sector is very sensitive to interest rates.
21:52 Okay, our discussion today is very inspiring.
21:55 Especially coming from you,
21:57 who is a capital market practitioner.
22:00 Especially for beginners out there,
22:03 who still have a lot of research and learning,
22:08 how to become a good investor or a good trader.
22:14 Thank you, Michael.
22:16 And of course, optimism for the capital market in Indonesia.
22:19 See you again.
22:21 [Music]
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