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00:00 to talk to you this afternoon, sir. Thanks for joining us.
00:03 Good afternoon. Thank you.
00:05 How likely do you think it is that this deal between Hamas and Israel will be extended?
00:11 Well, there is heavy pressure from the United States now. And as you mentioned, Antony Blinken
00:18 went to Israel exactly for that. And the US administration is giving several signs that
00:26 it is adamant that extending this truce. I think the reason for that is that they have
00:33 realized that their kind of unconditional support for the Israeli onslaught on Gaza
00:45 with the stated goal of eradicating Hamas is something that is only achievable at the
00:51 price of an absolutely huge massacre of genocidal proportion. And we have already had in less
00:58 than seven weeks 15,000 people killed in Gaza. So the US administration is realizing that
01:07 it is going to pay a heavy price itself for that, including in electoral terms next year.
01:14 So that's why they are doing, I think, their utmost now to try to extend this truce. They
01:20 are not, they haven't yet had the courage to change their position and ask for a ceasefire.
01:27 But just an extension of the truce while they are discussing in Qatar a possible scenario
01:33 that would allow them to put an end to this onslaught.
01:39 Do you think it's significant that not just the Mossad chief was in Qatar for those talks
01:45 yesterday, but the CIA chief as well?
01:48 Yes, as well as the chief of the Egyptian intelligence service. They are negotiating,
01:55 I mean, we know from the information we get about this that they are discussing a scenario
02:02 which is inspired from what happened in Beirut in 1982, when the PLO fighters and leaderships
02:11 were evacuated from Beirut by sea to Tunisia, Yemen, and other such places. And so there
02:26 is a discussion about a similar scenario being implemented in Gaza with the evacuation of
02:32 the Hamas fighters and leaders to countries like Algeria or Libya or Iran. And that's
02:42 what they are trying to get. I mean, the United States, I'm sure, is pushing for that in the
02:48 belief that this would allow for an ending of the war at the present stage of destruction
02:56 and killing and some kind of political settlement, which would be what the US administration
03:04 has been calling for. That is a resumption, if you want, of the stalled Oslo process and
03:11 this perspective of some kind of Palestinian state coexisting with the Israeli state.
03:20 You made the comparison between Lebanon and 1982. I wonder if there's another comparison
03:26 I had in my mind, which was 2011, when Hamas agreed to release one Israeli soldier, Gilad
03:33 Shaleed, for over a thousand Palestinians. Comparatively speaking, far smaller number
03:39 of Palestinians are being released now as part of this deal. So strategically, has Israel's
03:45 agenda changed? What's different between 2011 and now?
03:49 Well, what is different is that you have a very hardline government today dominated also
03:57 by the far right. What has changed also is that you have a very intense desire of revenge
04:05 as a result of what happened on October 7. And Israel is not willing under such circumstances
04:14 to get into the kind of deal you refer to. I mean, that's out of the question. They are
04:20 even very reluctant to release any male prisoners because of precisely this precedent that you
04:31 mentioned, which included the liberation of the man who is leading, who has been leading,
04:39 actually, what happened in Gaza, including the October 7 operation. So that's why Israel
04:49 is much tougher in negotiation today. Aside from the fact that part of the Israeli cabinet,
04:59 as we know, was against even this truce and any exchange, and they wanted to just carry
05:04 on the onslaught until they reoccupy the whole of the Gaza Strip.
05:12 So that's a little then as to what you make of Israel's strategy right now. Just finally,
05:17 let's give some time for the strategy of Hamas. We know women and children really are the
05:21 ones that they've agreed to release so far. Will they now start to release men, do you
05:26 think, assuming this deal is extended? Will they perhaps consider releasing Israeli soldiers
05:31 as well?
05:32 Well, I think they would. I mean, they would like to have a tit for tat, I mean, in this
05:39 kind of release. So they would release men when Israel releases men. That's, I think,
05:48 the kind of tacit understanding that there is there. I mean, this remains to be seen.
05:58 But this truce, I mean, the other dimension of this truce, and probably the most important
06:04 in some way, because the number of people involved is much higher, is the humanitarian
06:10 aid that is getting through the Egyptian border into Gaza. And that is extremely important,
06:16 of course, because from the reports we have, you know, people even thirsty, people hungry,
06:24 even some of those hostages sharing the fate of the other Palestinians. I mean, that's
06:30 really a very tragic situation.
06:32 Gilbert Ashkar, we'll have to leave it there. But thank you very much indeed, sir, for your
06:36 time and your analysis on the programme.
06:38 Thank you.