In our latest episode of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, we are all in on the Silver and Black matchup with the Miami Dolphins this weekend.
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00:00 Hi everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas
00:06 Raiders Insider Podcast, joined by my good friend who also happens to be a Sports Illustrated
00:11 Fan Nation beat writer from the All Dolphins.
00:15 That is my good buddy, you know, stranger here, Alan Poupar.
00:18 So glad to have him with us.
00:20 I was on his podcast earlier in the week.
00:22 Man, I made some waves and that's okay because I meant everything I said.
00:28 I stand by it.
00:29 In fact, one guy said to me, "You couldn't name five dolphins," and I named like 25 or
00:33 30 of them.
00:36 And as we get ready for this game, I'm going to tell you first of all what I said on his
00:41 podcast that was very controversial.
00:43 I said, "The defense is the Achilles heel."
00:46 And I meant it because that offense is so good, there has to be a weakness.
00:52 And their weakness is their defense, and I think their defense is good.
00:58 I never said I thought their defense was going to be bad.
01:00 In fact, I agreed with Alan that by the end of the year, I think the defense is going
01:04 to actually win them some football games.
01:09 I didn't understand why everyone got so hurt.
01:12 I don't think I said anything at all disrespectful about the fish.
01:16 But to talk about this game and look ahead with us, it's my good buddy, Alan.
01:19 Alan, how are you, bud?
01:20 I'm doing great, Hondo.
01:21 How are you, man?
01:23 Good.
01:24 Did you think I was disrespectful to the Dolphins at all?
01:26 I said they were a great team.
01:29 No, I think where some of our fans of the All Dolphins podcast had a little bit of an
01:36 issue is you weren't deferential enough to the greatness of the Dolphins and suggesting
01:42 that the Raiders have a chance and maybe overselling the Raiders.
01:49 The only thing I would say in terms of your comments regarding the Dolphin defense is
01:55 that while statistically it's a little behind the offense, it's really come on lately, let's
02:01 say the past month or so.
02:03 And that's even before Jalen Ramsey joined the lineup.
02:05 And Jalen Ramsey obviously is a difference maker.
02:09 But even before that, they were starting to come on.
02:15 And part of it was like, and you might be familiar with that idea, is some of it was
02:22 like the turnaround started after they lost at Buffalo in week four.
02:27 And their next two games were against the Giants in Carolina.
02:30 And we were like, yeah, they play great defense, but it's the Giants in Carolina.
02:36 But then they played the Eagles in week seven, Sunday night game in Philly, where they were
02:41 great against the run and stopping that Eagles rushing attack is no picnic.
02:48 But they got hurt by AJ Brown on a lot of improvised stuff by Jalen Hurts.
02:54 So it was to me that wasn't so even though the numbers weren't great, that wasn't so
02:57 much like the defense was bad.
02:59 You tip your hat to the guy making plays off of broken stuff, which is going to happen
03:04 when you face a good player.
03:06 And then against the Chiefs in Germany two weeks ago, they held the Chiefs to 267 yards.
03:11 Yeah.
03:12 And there was a 2114 game and one of those is a fumble return for a touchdown.
03:17 So the defense right now is really good.
03:22 And the offense at home has been scary on the road, not so much, but on the road, they've
03:29 also played KC Buffalo in Philly, which are three really good teams.
03:35 I don't like people who go on different radio stations or podcasts and say different things
03:41 than what they tell the home.
03:43 I don't respect those people.
03:45 I said on your show, if they play this game 10 times, I expected the Dolphins to win seven.
03:52 What?
03:53 Eight or nine.
03:56 Okay.
03:57 All right.
03:58 Well, you may say eight or nine.
04:01 That's fine.
04:02 I say seven.
04:03 And here's why I say seven.
04:04 Because that Raiders defense has been very, very good.
04:08 Statistically, even only gives up 20 points a game, 334, 335 yards compared to the Dolphins
04:14 320, but they're giving up 25 points.
04:19 And I think the way that their defense is so physical, it gives them a puncher's chance.
04:26 Again, you may say eight or nine, which is totally fair.
04:29 I say, you know, the Raiders would win three.
04:33 But the point of the matter is, is it's an uphill battle for the silver and black.
04:39 And when I look at this game, here is how I break it down, Ellen.
04:45 Number one, to me, this comes down to the Raiders when Miami's lost and I'm getting
04:53 better because you know, I say it, Miami and I'm getting better.
04:56 It's Miami getting good, but you're from the Midwest.
05:01 That's perfectly acceptable to say Miami.
05:03 Don Shula used to say Cincinnati all the time.
05:07 Isn't that what it's called?
05:08 Cincinnati.
05:09 I say Cincinnati, but okay.
05:14 Anyways, but here is when they've lost the three games they've lost, have one thing in
05:22 common.
05:24 Now we all know the first five yards you are allowed to be as physical with a wide receiver
05:30 as you want.
05:33 The next five yards, if you're up in their grill at the end of five, they're allowing
05:38 you to still be connected while separation's being created.
05:43 So if a Jalen Ramsey at the five yard marker, if he's all into Devante Adams, they're not
05:50 calling the interference at seven yards because they understand.
05:55 So the 10 yards, they give you five, five's the rule.
05:58 They give you 10 to create separation.
06:00 Here's my point.
06:02 In the three games that the Dolphins have lost, the only way you stop the Dolphin offense
06:09 is to be so physical that you cause those receivers, because it's a timing offense,
06:16 to get out of timing so that Tua is not able to go run, stop, throw to a spot.
06:24 That's just a fact.
06:27 I think that is a big if, but I think the Raiders do have some reasons for optimism.
06:35 Number one, J'Korrion Bennett is very fast.
06:40 And within that five yard window, you can do a lot of damage if you're physical, him,
06:48 Nate Hobbs, et cetera.
06:50 Now they're going to move Tyreek and Motion and everything else to avoid that.
06:54 I get it.
06:55 I get it.
06:56 Reynolds is a great coach.
06:59 But that's the first key.
07:00 And number two is, whether people want to hear it down in Miami or not, Tua doesn't
07:08 take a beating well.
07:11 And so why the defensive backs are getting physical with the receivers, you've got to
07:18 get pressure and you've got to hit Tua.
07:21 I said to Enrique, your co-host, that's a big if.
07:30 It's a huge risk.
07:31 Enrique, you mean Omar?
07:32 I mean, Omar, excuse me.
07:33 I said Enrique, but I did an interview earlier with Enrique, forgive me.
07:38 I told Omar, your co-host, I said, listen, that's a big risk.
07:43 It's hard to do.
07:45 And it's not everyone's going to be able to do it.
07:48 But if the Raiders win, that's how they win.
07:50 Your thoughts on the analysis of me with the Raiders defense against your offense?
07:54 Well, I'm going to start off with, I agree with you that the way you stop this, the biggest
08:03 key to stopping this offense is you have to somehow control Tyree Kill.
08:09 Because it's crazy what he does.
08:13 And you suggested being very physical, the line of scrimmage, and that absolutely makes
08:17 sense.
08:18 There's one difference, though, and this is where the Dolphins are a different team at
08:23 home than they are on the road, is what Tyree has done on the road, sorry, at home, every
08:29 game is literally, he will go in motion, almost getting to full speed, going outside, and
08:40 times it, we're at the snap, he's turning up.
08:45 And generally is able to avoid the contact immediately, the line of scrimmage, and he
08:50 gets a free release like that.
08:52 Good luck staying with him.
08:55 Because newsflash, the dude's fast.
08:58 The thing is, and that requires first of all, incredible timing with him and Tua.
09:05 And then a quick look behind where he's hearing Tua, and also the quick look behind.
09:10 So they times it, I mean, it almost at times almost looks like CFL football, where they
09:15 actually are motioning towards the line.
09:18 And like, who was it?
09:22 Jawan Taylor, I think, or Lane Johnson, the offensive tackles were accused of backing
09:26 up quicker than the snap.
09:30 And sometimes they time it perfectly, but it still looks almost like a penalty.
09:34 That's what Tyree will do.
09:35 Where a lot of times you're going to be like, hey, that's illegal forward, that's illegal
09:39 forward.
09:40 It's not, he just times it perfect.
09:42 And it's a lot tougher to do on the road than it is at home.
09:44 So that's one thing.
09:45 You also, I do want to take you up on your suggesting of like Tua doesn't take a pounding.
09:50 No, he doesn't because he's not big, even though he's gotten thicker.
09:55 But the thing is, he hasn't gotten taken a pounding this year at all.
10:00 He's gotten sacked a little bit more in the last few weeks after barely being sacked early
10:05 on.
10:07 But now what he's done, which was a problem early on in his career, is if there's any
10:12 kind of pressure around him, he's going to go down.
10:15 He is not subjecting himself to taking shots because of the concussion issues he had last
10:21 year.
10:22 And even at the cost of sometimes giving up on a play that potentially he could keep alive.
10:29 So I'm not sure that the notion of pounding Tua is the key to stopping this offense.
10:34 Because first of all, nobody's done that this year and he's not letting that happen.
10:38 So I don't see that as the key.
10:39 The key again, neutralizing as best you can Tyree Kill.
10:46 Because if you give him any kind of room in the secondary, he's just going to torch everybody.
10:50 All right.
10:52 Now let's go to the Raiders offense against the Dolphins defense.
10:57 The Raiders are going to have to score points.
10:59 You're not going to beat these guys scoring 17, period.
11:02 Just not going to happen.
11:04 And you know, if you can keep them in the 20s, I think that's a great thing.
11:14 If the Dolphins are in the 20s, okay, then the Raiders got an upset.
11:20 They get to the 30s, I'd be shocked.
11:23 But here's what I think with the Raiders.
11:26 They're going to have to be more aggressive with the rookie.
11:30 And they're going to have to tell them this is, you know, the last two ball games, we've
11:33 asked you to do what we want you to do and go win the game.
11:37 There are two keys to this game for me for the Raiders offense.
11:40 Number one, Josh McDaniel, Josh Jacobs has to run for 150 yards.
11:48 Very difficult to do against the Miami defense.
11:51 Okay.
11:52 I fully see that, but it's a fact.
11:56 Number two, they're going to have to be more aggressive with Aiden O'Connell throwing the
12:01 football.
12:02 Do you agree with those two analysis?
12:04 If the Raiders win, they're going to have to do those two things.
12:08 I'm trying to see.
12:13 And here's the thing, and it's tough for me to envision like the perfect scenario because
12:18 the Dolphins have been not only they won at home, they're 4-0 at home, only team in the
12:24 AFC without a loss at home.
12:26 And not only that is they've won handily every time.
12:31 Their biggest, their smallest margin of victory at home is 14 points.
12:40 And the New York Giants got a pick six, stayed in the game longer than they had any right
12:44 to.
12:45 Carolina got off to a 14-0 lead, couldn't hold it.
12:49 Nobody's really run on the Dolphins since the first couple of weeks of the regular season.
12:56 I have a really hard time seeing Josh Jacobs erupt for close.
13:01 Here's the point.
13:02 I don't think you heard my comment.
13:04 I said I don't.
13:06 I think it's very difficult.
13:08 But if they win, this is how they're going to do it.
13:12 It's not.
13:13 Do we think it's difficult that they're going to do that?
13:15 We all agree that.
13:16 But I'm saying as difficult as it is, if they're going to win, that's what they're going to
13:20 have to do.
13:22 I say I think to me it's more on the other side of the ball.
13:25 I think to me, first of all, O'Connell has to have a big game without question.
13:32 I think they can win without Josh Jacobs having a big game if they can get something done
13:38 on defense.
13:41 If they don't get takeaways on defense, they're not beating the Dolphins.
13:45 I agree with that 100%.
13:46 Now special teams, I think the Raiders have the best kicker and the best punter.
13:51 I don't think special teams, I don't think the Dolphins suck.
13:54 I'm not saying that, but I think the Raiders have the advantage in special teams.
14:00 With Carlson and AJ Cole, what are your thoughts on special teams?
14:05 No, I don't disagree with you.
14:10 The Dolphins special teams last year were, trying to be polite here, borderline brutal.
14:17 Like practically every game they would lose on special teams and there would be the chance
14:20 of a big play against them.
14:24 If they break even, they'll be fine.
14:28 They've been good in that department.
14:29 They haven't given up a long return since a kickoff return for a touchdown in the Denver
14:33 game in week three, when the score was 63 to 13 at the time.
14:40 So who cares?
14:43 It was completely inconsequential and that hasn't been an issue.
14:47 The Raiders and great kicking and great punting is not going to stop the Dolphins offense
14:52 from getting the job done and doing what it does.
14:58 I don't envision, even though I think the Raiders are going to win a special teams battle,
15:02 I don't envision it's going to be anywhere near enough to where it would sway the outcome.
15:07 I totally agree.
15:08 This isn't a game that's won by field goals.
15:10 This is Raiders got to score touchdowns.
15:13 Completely agree.
15:14 Now, I could see it if they did get the upset, it coming down to a final field goal, but
15:22 they're not going to win this with four field goals.
15:27 It would be like a 31-28 type of game where they won with the last one field goal, not
15:32 all of them.
15:33 I agree a hundred percent.
15:34 All right.
15:35 I want to talk about coach McDaniels, your coach.
15:38 When I say your, the team you cover, obviously not yours.
15:42 You and I aren't fans, but he's quirky.
15:48 He's different.
15:51 He is innovative.
15:55 He is calculated.
16:02 He's a different duck.
16:05 He's not your, or a dolphin.
16:07 He is not your typical NFL coach.
16:14 I have some personal feelings, but I think he's good for the national football league,
16:20 which is very stuffy.
16:22 Stuffy.
16:23 Good word.
16:24 All right.
16:25 Your thoughts.
16:26 Give me your analysis, please.
16:34 Everything you said.
16:35 He doesn't look like an NFL head coach.
16:37 He doesn't sound like an NFL head coach.
16:39 He's very smart.
16:42 He's very unique.
16:44 The players will even tell you that publicly on the record.
16:50 I think the words they use is quirky.
16:53 I think dirty maybe is one that's been said.
17:01 But what he does is he relates to players very, very well.
17:06 He is unwavering in his support.
17:10 For example, he's done wonders for Tua's career, way beyond X's and O's.
17:18 He's helped him a lot in that sense as well in designing an offense that takes advantage
17:25 of what Tua does best, which is quick decision, accuracy, and getting rid of the ball quickly.
17:32 More than anything, from the start, he embraced Tua metaphorically.
17:40 He may have done it literally as well.
17:43 Wrapped through his arms around him.
17:46 You're my guy.
17:47 I believe in you.
17:49 You're going to be a stud in my offense.
17:53 This was such a sharp contrast from the previous head coach, who was not a Tua believer.
17:59 Not as much as anything else, lifted Tua's game along with the creation of this really,
18:07 really cool offense with the injection of a stupid amount of speed.
18:14 This is a type of speed that Al Davis, the Raiders owner, I don't have to say who he
18:20 is, but Al Davis would have loved this offense.
18:23 It's speed on top of speed.
18:25 Williams are getting one of those guys back on Sunday, rookie Devon Achan, who in a straight
18:31 line might be as fast as Tyreek Hill.
18:33 He doesn't have the joystick side-to-side quickness that Tyreek has, but in a straight
18:41 line, ridiculously fast.
18:44 So Mike McDaniel, you put all those elements together, and he's created a team where they
18:50 have a lot of fun.
18:52 McDaniel will get serious when he has to.
18:56 Doesn't do it publicly.
18:57 Publicly, it's always the quirky, the joke, the little quips and all that.
19:00 The very long, elaborate answers.
19:03 A lot of times to say nothing, but that's our problem, not the fans' problems.
19:07 But so far, so good.
19:09 The guy can coach.
19:10 Now what he has to prove is when stuff gets real in December, can he make the adjustments
19:17 and get his team to win the big games?
19:19 Because they didn't do that last year, other than winning the regular season finale against
19:23 what by then was a horrible Jets team to get into the playoffs.
19:27 Two more questions to me and we'll be done.
19:32 Do you see Tua getting a monster biggest contract in the history of the NFL extension when he
19:38 comes due?
19:41 If he closes out the season, I mean, this is the very easy, I'll give you the easy answer
19:46 and then the prediction.
19:47 The very easy answer is if he closes the season, the way he started it, because the last hurdle
19:57 that Tua has to clear for me, for example, and then I don't know for others, maybe for
20:03 the Dolphins as well, to get that stamp of pure franchise quarterback, he's got to produce
20:08 in the December, January games.
20:10 And if you look at his resume, it's not there.
20:15 That's obviously with the very obvious of the SST in the lineup the whole year.
20:21 If he does that, then let's say Dolphins finish strong, get a first round by, sorry, sorry,
20:28 I don't feel the advantage in the playoffs.
20:31 Number one or number two seed in the FC playoffs, I think Tua is going to get a big contract.
20:35 I don't know that he's going to top everybody else.
20:38 I'm not buying that because even then you're still going to have that cloud over his head
20:43 that there's still that durability issue.
20:45 If he plays, even if he plays 17 games this year, it's going to be enough of a cloud to
20:49 where I think you don't go, I don't think he surpasses Burrow.
20:53 I'm not sure he surpasses Justin Herbert.
20:56 He'll certainly surpass Daniel Jones.
21:00 That's an entirely different story as to why the Giants gave that to him, but I'm not sure
21:05 he surpasses Jalen Hurts, but that's what he has to get done.
21:13 - All right, last question from me.
21:17 As you know, I have friends, part of the organization with the Dolphins.
21:23 I have only heard one criticism of your head coach, and I want to ask you what you think,
21:31 but I've had some people say they like him, but there's concerns that he may not be genuine,
21:40 that sometimes the quirkiness may be just not genuine.
21:48 Do you think he's a genuine guy?
21:51 - Completely, totally.
21:55 That doesn't even come close to my radar.
22:00 I think that's who he is.
22:01 That's who he is.
22:02 He's always been a little bit different.
22:06 I talked to folks in San Francisco before he was hired, and the concern there was, "Can
22:13 he command the room?
22:14 Because he's kind of weird."
22:17 That quirkiness, that's who he is.
22:22 He's not shy about saying it.
22:24 He knows he's verbose.
22:25 He knows he likes to joke.
22:31 I could be off the mark.
22:33 I'm not sensing a lack of genuineness, sorry for the genuineness, of being genuine.
22:42 I'm stumbling over the word here, but I'm not saying that.
22:47 - Awesome.
22:48 All right, he is Alan Poupar.
22:50 He is my colleague, also part of Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, All Dolphins.
22:55 I'm Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast,
23:01 part of the Fans First Sports Network.
23:02 Thanks for joining us tonight, everybody.
23:04 I appreciate you.
23:05 Alan, give me your final score prediction.
23:08 What's the score going to be?
23:10 I'm ready.
23:11 - I can't do that.
23:12 Well, no, because you're my friend, I will do this.
23:14 I will reserve the right to change because my final prediction always appears on alldolphins.com
23:18 on Saturday morning.
23:20 At this time, I would probably say 3416 Dolphins.
23:28 - I appreciate you, my friend.
23:30 Again, Alan Poupar, he's a great follow on Twitter.
23:33 What the game's going on, I'll be retweeting him all during the game.
23:37 Look forward to seeing him.
23:38 I'm going to be having a nice dinner with him down in Miami tonight.
23:41 Look forward to it.
23:42 We'll see you all again real soon right here on Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas
23:46 Raiders Insider Podcast.