In this episode of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, we discuss the case for Champ Kelly, Antonio Pierce, Mark Davis, and the Miami Dolphins game.
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00:00 Hi everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas
00:06 Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:09 Want to really break down for you today and talk about a looking ahead with this team.
00:15 What I'm looking for, what are some things that I think you can be looking for, and just
00:21 really take an analytical look moving forward.
00:25 Now you may remember I said to you when Antonio Pierce was given the head coaching job, the
00:33 interim tag, that he had a 10 week job interview.
00:35 And what he had was something no other candidate had, and that was he had the chair, he had
00:43 the office, he already had the job.
00:46 And your job in that position is to make it extremely difficult for the owner to get rid
00:55 of you if you want that job, and we all know that he does.
00:59 And I think through two games he has done everything right.
01:04 There has been nothing in my opinion that Antonio Pierce could have done differently.
01:09 I was asked yesterday in an interview, do you think he's done enough right now to have
01:15 earned a job?
01:17 And I'm going to discuss that with you, then I'm going to discuss Champ Kelly with you,
01:21 then we're going to talk a little bit about Mark Davis, and then begin to look forward
01:25 and what are some things that I think you should be looking for.
01:30 Let's start with Champ Kelly, who it's already known and out there when Mike Mayock was relieved,
01:37 I wrote that I thought Champ Kelly would have been an exceptional candidate to be the GM.
01:44 And I still feel that way.
01:46 I don't know what your expectations of a general manager can be.
01:51 There's not a huge impact he can make when you're 10 games or when he took over eight
01:56 games into the year.
01:58 Give you an example, the trade deadline was over, so he couldn't go make any trades.
02:04 And so now what he's going to be doing is looking for people off of maybe waiver wire
02:11 or looking for people who aren't signed and playing for other teams that are unrestricted
02:18 free agents.
02:19 But that's been picked over really good.
02:21 So he can do some minimal things.
02:26 But there are not a lot of big things that he can do to impact.
02:30 So with Champ Kelly, it's a feel that Mark Davis is going to have to have about, do I
02:37 like the way he works through things?
02:40 Do I like the way he communicates with me?
02:42 Do I like the way he communicates with the coaches?
02:45 Do I like the way he thinks forwardly?
02:50 And so I've heard someone, I was asked, I think it was yesterday, it may have been Monday,
02:55 but somebody said to me, what are some things that Champ Kelly can do to win the job?
03:05 And I said, I just don't see it that way because the position of general manager is so different
03:10 and when he took over, I think that's very, very big.
03:14 Number one.
03:16 When you look at Antonio Pierce, number two, there are lots of things that he can do and
03:20 he's done everything right.
03:22 His communication with players, his communication with Champ, his communication with ownership,
03:31 the way that he's making decisions.
03:34 I was told that he walked into a room and after congratulating everybody, he apologized
03:43 for some errors and some mistakes that he made in coaching.
03:49 That stuff endears you to a team.
03:52 And it was not saying that the previous regime didn't do that.
03:56 I've written that they did, but it was, this is what I did and it just stopped.
04:02 And then it went back to celebrating and then they went into film obviously at another time.
04:08 But it was a very imperative point.
04:13 So I think AP has done everything that you want.
04:16 I love his aggression.
04:19 He told the team when he got the job, hey, we're in Vegas and guess what?
04:23 We're playing with house money.
04:25 And he's right.
04:27 He's absolutely right.
04:28 Now I've said a couple of times that I believe Mark Davis regrets letting Rich Bisagia go.
04:34 And I do believe that.
04:36 Mark has not told me that.
04:38 I want to make that clear.
04:41 But I do believe that.
04:43 A hundred percent, I believe it.
04:46 And I believe that it would make Mark happy if Antonio Pierce made the decision for him.
04:55 Now again, I was asked yesterday in a national interview, what is Pierce's number?
05:02 I don't think there is one.
05:04 I really sincerely don't.
05:06 I think Mark Davis proved by firing the last regime that he's willing to make the difficult
05:14 decisions to follow his gut.
05:21 Now a lot of people were chirping at him.
05:23 We know that.
05:24 But this was a Mark Davis decision.
05:26 Let it be very clear.
05:29 It was his decision.
05:31 And ultimately, they're all his decisions.
05:34 But I mean, he made that call on his own.
05:36 He was resolute that they're coming back.
05:40 And he made that call.
05:41 And I think it was the right call, not critical of the call.
05:45 But this brings us to point three, Mark Davis.
05:50 All right.
05:52 Does Mark singularly make the decision?
05:56 Now heretofore under his leadership, we've not seen that.
06:00 That's how Mark likes to operate.
06:04 Is the decision made by him and some former players that have his ear?
06:10 Is the decision made by him and Tom Brady?
06:15 I think there is a lot of things that go into this decision process.
06:21 I have said that I believe if Antonio Pierce gets to nine and eight, which happens to be
06:29 the number I predicted at the beginning of the year, but the two are not related.
06:33 I'm not saying because this is the number Hondo said.
06:36 But if he gets to nine and eight, which is where I believe was the level of this team,
06:43 I think Mark Davis would have a very difficult time moving on from Antonio Pierce.
06:54 The decision to move on from Rich Bersaccia was it sent a seismic pulse through that team.
07:17 And I don't know that at the time he realized how big it was.
07:24 Now let me go back and say this on Raider Nation radio with Clay Baker at the time when
07:29 he moved on.
07:30 I made this comment to his team, he can do whatever he wants, but he's going to be held
07:37 accountable for it.
07:40 And this is his team.
07:43 He doesn't need my approval.
07:45 Media is the least of his concerns.
07:48 If he's looking at the media, if he's going to look at anybody other than himself, it
07:55 should be the fans.
07:57 But the media is at the bottom of the, and it should be there.
08:01 If I was the owner, my least of my concerns would be what the media thought.
08:05 I wouldn't care.
08:07 But I would lead from my gut.
08:10 What do I think needs to be done and go forward?
08:13 So I'm not saying this from a, "Well, he better be afraid of the media because that's stupid
08:19 and we all know that's stupid."
08:23 But I said that because that's who the accountability rests on.
08:28 When you let Rich go, there were huge disappointments on players that felt like they'd played hard
08:39 and they'd played hard for Gruden, let's not pretend like they hadn't, but, and really
08:44 went above and beyond to try to hold the team together and get Rich the job.
08:49 I think after he made the decision and he brought in Josh, that he saw the atmosphere
08:58 become business-like.
08:59 I think that's a very fair analysis.
09:04 And so in seeing it become business-like and then eventually, I've already discussed it,
09:10 I had nauseam, so I'm not going to go back.
09:12 Seeing the fun of football removed by the business of football, I think there was a
09:18 lot of regret.
09:19 Now, I'm basing that on things that I know.
09:26 Again, he has not told me that, but things that I know and I believe that there's regret
09:32 there.
09:33 Having said that, this team gets to nine and eight.
09:37 I don't think they get in the playoffs.
09:41 I just don't.
09:43 And when they get there to nine and eight, it's over 500.
09:50 That would have seen AP go from a three and five team and then finish six and three, to
09:59 finish nine and eight.
10:01 I think it would be [inaudible]
10:11 And let's be honest, you become an interim coach and usually when a team is struggling
10:19 and not good.
10:22 And six and three, that means that he did better than the people that you were paying
10:27 10 million plus a year to.
10:29 I think it'd be very difficult to move on.
10:32 I think he would have a lot of issues in his locker room that I don't think Mark Davis
10:38 wants with players.
10:41 I'll say it a different way.
10:45 I credit Mark Davis because he made this move after seeing the joy and everything else in
10:50 his players.
10:51 His players sincerely matter to him.
10:54 In fact, I would venture to say in talking to other people, I don't know that there's
10:59 an owner in the NFL that's more connected and more player oriented than him.
11:10 In fact, I've been told by several people that the owner they cover doesn't give a flying
11:15 flip about his players.
11:18 Doesn't care about their opinion.
11:19 Doesn't matter to them.
11:22 And that's been my experience in the NFL.
11:23 Now I applaud Mark for that.
11:26 And I just think at nine and eight, it would be especially after moving on from Rich, I
11:33 think he has some guys in that locker room, a lot of them, and then there's not a lot
11:38 left from Rich, but there certainly are some.
11:42 And I think they're key players.
11:43 I think he would be a difficult position for him.
11:46 So I think nine and eight is where AP needs to get, and that's personal opinion, to guarantee
11:56 that he gets the job.
11:57 All right, moving on.
12:00 I want to talk about this game this weekend because I think it's extremely important to
12:09 look at a couple things.
12:10 So I did some national interviews yesterday.
12:13 I did some Miami specific interviews yesterday.
12:17 And in one of them, I said that the, actually in multiple, I said the Achilles heel to the
12:23 Dolphins is their defense.
12:26 Now that doesn't mean I think their defense is bad.
12:30 Boy, I got inundated with Dolphin fans.
12:32 You don't know what you're talking about.
12:33 Our defense is bad.
12:34 I never said your defense was bad, but it's your Achilles heel.
12:39 Meaning if you're going to beat the Dolphins, you got to go after their defense.
12:47 Now, let's talk about the defenses for a minute.
12:51 The Raiders are giving up 334 yards a game, but only 20 points.
13:00 The Dolphins defense gives up, I think it's 320, 322 yards a game.
13:07 It's a little bit less than the Raiders, but giving up 25 points a game.
13:13 So when you look at this game, I want to talk about several things that I'm going to, then
13:18 I'm going to get into really what I'm looking for.
13:20 And I just got a text.
13:21 I need to make sure this isn't something that I need to tell you about because I'm actually
13:25 waiting on a potential text for something to share with you.
13:32 Okay.
13:35 So when you look at this Miami team, and I'm trying to say it right, Miami, sorry, called
13:44 it Miami for so long.
13:45 Now I'm trying to call it Miami.
13:46 Y'all have set me straight.
13:48 So I'm trying to do Miami.
13:51 But when you look at this Miami team, they're going to score points.
13:57 Now I alluded to this earlier in the week.
14:00 When I look at games, and you guys know this from the beginning, I'm covering the team
14:05 for four years.
14:06 There are 10 criteria that I look at for every football game, 10 criteria.
14:14 And I balance them out.
14:15 So do I go with Miami here?
14:18 Do I go with the Raiders here?
14:19 And I go right down the list, and then I make my predictions.
14:24 When I look at this Miami team, seven of my 10 predictors go their way.
14:32 Now, this is not related, but I think if they played this game like they're going to in
14:40 the warmth, which is not a big deal for the Raiders, and the humidity may be, but when
14:47 I look at this game for the Raiders, I think if they played this exact game, exact same
14:51 time, exact same place, 10 times, I think Miami wins seven.
14:56 Okay.
14:59 Doesn't mean I don't think the Raiders can't win.
15:02 It doesn't mean that of the two Chiefs games in Miami, which are the three hardest games
15:06 remaining, I don't think this is the most winnable.
15:11 But again, understand, I separate myself from thinking as a fan, and I'm thinking analytically.
15:21 I'm trying to be a reporter, not a fan.
15:26 I don't create news, I report news.
15:29 So when I say, I expect them to lose this game, I do.
15:34 But it doesn't mean I'm saying there's no chance.
15:36 First of all, in the NFL, there's always a chance.
15:39 I don't care who you're playing, number one.
15:41 And number two, I think the Raiders have an absolute puncher's chance to win this.
15:47 Now, I used that term a while back, and I got several emails from people, and I assume
15:52 that they were younger, asking me, what does a puncher's chance mean?
15:56 What that means is in boxing, you can go into a boxing match, and one guy is a clearly superior
16:03 boxer, but all of a sudden, the underdog gets a punch in there and hits him in the face
16:07 and knocks him out.
16:09 It happens.
16:11 Is it what you expect every time?
16:13 No.
16:14 But you have a puncher's chance.
16:15 And I think the Raiders have a real puncher's chance.
16:18 So let's break this game down and talk a little bit about what I think and what I see.
16:26 Now, the first thing you want to look at, and I mentioned this a couple days ago, but
16:30 it's important because our channel is growing so fast.
16:34 And thank you to all of you who are subscribing and following.
16:37 Thank you.
16:40 Tom Izzo is a Hall of Fame basketball coach for the Michigan State Spartans.
16:44 Over his time, he has the best NCAA record of anybody.
16:54 Now people were trolling in the comments, "Petino's better, Krzyzewski's better."
16:58 I never said they weren't.
16:59 I'm just telling you his resume is he's one of the best in the NCAA tournament.
17:05 And he happens to be a friend of mine, but that does not mean that I'm using him as an
17:10 example.
17:11 You can use Coach K, you can use Rick Petino, however you want, but they're all elite coaches.
17:18 I will tell you, matchups is the biggest thing when you get into NCAA tournament, because
17:27 you never know who you're going to play.
17:28 You never know, does your team match up?
17:30 So I'll give you an example because it's something I used to cover.
17:34 I remember Michigan State was the number one seed predicted to go win the national title.
17:41 In fact, I think it was President Obama or whoever was president at the time predicted
17:45 them to win it, and it was all the odds, everybody had Michigan State as the team to beat.
17:53 And then the pairings come out and they're playing Middle Tennessee State.
17:59 And I remember talking to Izzo the week of the tournament, and it was not a good game
18:09 for Michigan State matchup-wise with Middle Tennessee State.
18:13 So then they go into the game and Middle Tennessee State, I mean, they were taking shots from
18:17 three feet behind the three-point line and everything went in.
18:21 They just shot the lights out.
18:23 And to their credit, they just whooped Michigan State, just whooped them.
18:27 You can't get around it.
18:28 It was a terrific basketball game by Middle Tennessee State.
18:32 In my opinion, one of the biggest upsets in NCAA history.
18:38 And it was a great win by them.
18:41 Now a couple things happened.
18:43 Michigan State did not shoot the ball well.
18:46 Even though they played good defense, Middle Tennessee hit every shot and it wasn't a good
18:52 matchup.
18:53 So it didn't matter, you know, if you're a two seed playing a 15, I think that's what
18:58 it was.
18:59 It wasn't a one and a 16, but it was a two and a 15, I think.
19:02 But it was a huge upset, but it was not a good matchup.
19:10 And they had their puncher's chance and they hit every shot.
19:12 And credit to them, I'm not making any excuses.
19:15 They whooped them that night.
19:16 I was sitting courtside and it was a whooping.
19:20 My point to you is that, do I think it would be as big of an upset?
19:26 No.
19:27 If the Raiders beat the Dolphins?
19:29 No.
19:30 But that's an example of a puncher's chance in matchups.
19:36 This I think there are teams with better records than Miami that the Raiders match up better
19:42 with.
19:43 Meaning their strengths and the Raiders strengths are similar.
19:49 Not here.
19:51 Miami's going to throw the ball a ton.
19:55 And other than Max Crosby, the Raiders have struggled getting home.
20:03 That's a big one.
20:04 Okay, so if I'm my Aimee, I am going to have a running back or a fullback and a tight end.
20:15 So I'm going to have Max protect where Max is.
20:19 Maximum protection where Max is.
20:23 And then I'm going to dare Tyree Wilson or Malcolm Coons or Patrick Graham to drop some
20:28 blitzes.
20:30 Because if you don't give pressure on Tua, you're not going to even remotely limit them.
20:37 You're not going to rush three or even four.
20:42 And maybe four if Max is getting free.
20:46 But that's a big if.
20:48 If they're putting three guys on him.
20:50 You got to make Tua make bad decisions.
20:53 If Tua has time, the game's over.
20:56 He is a tactician and he's very good.
21:00 And he's got great receivers.
21:03 And Tyree Kill, we all know what he does.
21:06 He has top end burning speed.
21:10 And not just top end burning speed.
21:13 He has cutting speed.
21:15 And so for the Raiders, it's going to be about pressure.
21:21 Are you able to get pressure to make Tua make some decisions?
21:25 Now listen, we all know, we all know Tyree's going to get his catches and they're going
21:32 to score points.
21:35 So this brings us to the next one.
21:38 The Raiders can't manage this game.
21:40 The last two games, and I don't think you throw out any game in the National Football
21:45 League.
21:46 A win is a win.
21:47 But the Giants are not a good team.
21:48 So you can say, okay, they beat the Giants or they're supposed to go put it over here
21:51 on the shelf.
21:52 But that Jets defense.
21:55 I don't have it right here in front of me, but JT the Brick texted out a really great
22:00 stat of what the Jets defense has done to top quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes.
22:06 And Aiden O'Connell outplayed every one of them.
22:10 Statistically, I thought that was a really big deal.
22:12 It was a great tweet by JT and I retweeted it.
22:17 You can go find it on my tweet line.
22:19 But this is a game, and I've been talking to you about this for a few weeks, where they're
22:23 going to have to give the football to Aiden O'Connell and say, okay, there's going to
22:31 be some mistakes.
22:32 We get that.
22:33 You're a rook.
22:34 But you're going to have to win us the football game.
22:37 We're going to have to go score points.
22:39 Yes, we want to run the football.
22:42 Yes, we want to eat up the clock to keep the ball out of the hands of Miami.
22:48 But you got to go score some points.
22:54 And they're going to have to let the youngster grow up a little bit.
22:57 Now, I think Aiden can do it.
23:02 But if you count the Charger game, which I understand you should because he started,
23:08 but the staff did not, Josh McDaniels didn't do anything to help Aiden.
23:13 So technically, it's really his third start with this staff.
23:20 There's going to be a growing curve.
23:22 So when you throw that into the mix, and you expect a rookie to make a mistake, that adds
23:29 to it.
23:30 That adds to more of a puncher's chance.
23:32 Again, we're talking about matchups.
23:36 So do I think the Raiders can win it?
23:38 Absolutely, I do.
23:39 And I think they would win three out of seven of this game.
23:43 But because of that, that's why I predict a Miami win.
23:47 Not hating on the Raiders, not believing in the Raiders, I'm being analytical.
23:52 And so here is what this game really comes down to, to me.
23:59 Are the Raiders able to make, to have to make quick decisions?
24:07 Not do what he wants, do what he has to do.
24:10 There's a big difference.
24:13 If he's taking a four-step drop and going to launch a bomb to Tyreek, but he gets to
24:18 his fourth step, and before he can set himself, he's getting pounded.
24:23 We know that Tyreek, I mean, excuse me, we know that Tua can get injured.
24:31 Certainly I'm not wishing that on a player, but we know that that's, he doesn't take getting
24:35 banged up well.
24:37 So pressure is a big deal.
24:38 But when you bring pressure and you've got some corners that are young, Nate Hobbs, Jacoryan,
24:46 Amik if he's back, I'll talk to you about Amik in a minute.
24:52 And there, now go back to last year's Baltimore Raven, Miami Dolphin game.
25:00 Marcus Peters got lit up.
25:04 Okay.
25:05 I mean, for example, he's covering Tyreek on a deep ball.
25:08 Go back, find the highlights.
25:09 I'm sure you can find them on YouTube or somewhere.
25:13 And Marcus got blown up bad last year.
25:16 Okay.
25:17 Now he's the Raiders best corner, cover corner.
25:21 We know he's not good in the rush.
25:25 We know he struggles a little bit when it's not his guy, but purely coverage, he is their
25:33 best.
25:34 JB, Jacoryan Bennett is super fast.
25:38 Okay.
25:39 Faster than Marcus.
25:41 But if you put a rookie without some safety help with Tyreek, I don't care how good he
25:48 is, rookies make rookie mistakes.
25:52 Okay.
25:53 Amik is probably their best all around corner.
25:58 We know he's a ball hawk.
26:00 We also know he doesn't have the speed of JB.
26:02 He doesn't have the coverage skills of Marcus, but he's willing to go up there.
26:07 He's aggressive.
26:08 He'll get the ball.
26:09 He's going to give up some passes, but he's going to get some interceptions too.
26:12 And then we know what Nate Hobbs is.
26:14 So you got a very, very young defensive backfield.
26:20 Okay.
26:21 We know what Marcus Epps is capable of.
26:24 We know what Trayvon Moregis is capable of.
26:28 So we know there is some talent there, but even if you double team Tyreek, let's say
26:35 you put JB on him, who's physical, and a Marcus Epps or a Trayvon over, but that speed and
26:46 cutting ability is still going to get open if Tua has time.
26:51 Now defensively, here are the two things that I'm going to be watching for from the Raiders.
26:55 Number one, remember that first 10 yards, defenders are able to be super physical with
27:04 wide receivers trying to break into their routes.
27:07 Okay.
27:08 That first 10 yards is everything.
27:09 Now what Miami does, see Miami getting there.
27:13 What Miami does is they move him in motion all the time to avoid that physical contact.
27:19 He's not a, listen, Tyreek does a lot well.
27:24 And if you're looking for a wart, and I don't even know that you'd call it a wart, but a
27:30 blemish, it would be physicality.
27:35 So I think if you're going to have JB on them because they match, because the speed is so
27:39 close, Tyreek's still a little bit faster, but still close.
27:43 Then if when he goes in motion, JB has to go in motion and then the first 10 yards.
27:49 So the first thing I'm watching for is the first 10 yards.
27:52 If you're watching Tyreek able to get away free, not getting beat up physically.
27:57 I mean, I think that first 10 yards, every play with him has got to be a heavyweight
28:01 fight, punch, push, scrap, fight, hit, bam, bang, boom, like the old Batman TV show.
28:12 If they're super physical in the first 10 yards, then I think that's a good sign for
28:17 the Raiders.
28:18 Very good sign.
28:19 Now, only a couple of teams have been able to do it.
28:25 I think the Raiders can.
28:27 I do believe that they can do that.
28:30 The second one on the Raiders defense is going to be pressure.
28:34 Even if it's not sacks, are they getting enough pressure on Tua that he's doing what he has
28:42 to do, not what he wants to?
28:45 Is he getting hit?
28:46 Even if he's not getting sacked, is the physicality there?
28:49 Those are the first two things that I'm looking for.
28:54 I'll be talking about it all game on Twitter as I comment.
28:57 I hope that you join me there.
28:59 Remember, my Twitter is @HondoCarpenter, H-O-N-D-O-C-A-R-P-E-N-T-E-R.
29:06 Now let's talk about offensively.
29:11 They've got to be able to run the football, which I think they can.
29:14 Now, again, I've said and I stand by it, the Achilles heel of the Dolphins is the defense,
29:21 but it doesn't mean the defense is bad.
29:24 It simply means the defense is not as good as the offense.
29:30 It's their weakness, even though it's pretty good.
29:34 Even though I think you could make an argument, it's strong.
29:38 Statistically, the Raiders are better, but it doesn't mean it's a bad defense.
29:46 Follow me for a minute.
29:47 They're going to take some more risks.
29:50 They're going to need some big plays, some chunk plays.
29:55 I think accuracy from Aiden, making good decisions, huge.
30:02 But here are the points.
30:03 Remember, with defense, it's pressure on Tua, making him do what he has to do, not what
30:07 he wants to do, and physicality in that first 10 yards with Tyreke.
30:14 Here's what I'm looking for on offense.
30:16 Number one, you've got to be able to run the football.
30:19 When you run the football, the clock keeps moving.
30:23 A lot of people don't know this because you're new to football, and I get the emails, so
30:27 don't feel bad.
30:28 Please don't ever feel bad sending me an email saying, "I'm new to football.
30:32 Can you explain what you mean when you say this?"
30:35 I get those a lot.
30:38 When you run the football, the clock keeps moving, so you eat a lot of the clock, and
30:45 therefore, it impacts time of possession.
30:50 If you have 60 minutes in a ballgame and your team has the ball for 40 minutes, that's huge.
31:05 That means it's less time that the other team has the ball.
31:07 Now, Brian Kelly, who's the coach at LSU, once told me, we were sitting in his office
31:13 and we were talking about time of possession.
31:15 He goes, "I don't really care about time of possession because we score quick."
31:20 That's fair.
31:21 I still think time of possession matters, even though Brian and I disagree.
31:26 His resume is much better than mine when it comes to winning football championships, but
31:32 I was more schooled by Saban and others, and I agree with them.
31:38 You may score quick, but still, if I have a defense that's resting, they're going to
31:45 be better.
31:47 That's mean more than Brian, but I still think it's important to present to you the other
31:51 side of the opinion of coaches who run the quick strike.
31:56 I think number one is time of possession, the Raiders' ability to run the football.
31:59 I think 125, 150 yards for Josh Jacobs is huge.
32:05 150, if Jacobs runs for 150, I think the Raiders win.
32:10 I'll say this, if Jacobs runs for 150, I think the Raiders win nine out of 10.
32:16 To me, that's huge.
32:18 When you do throw with Aiden, that's the first key, is the ability to run the football with
32:24 time of possession.
32:25 The second key is that Aiden has to take his shots.
32:31 I would like to see him take some shots and put some points on the board.
32:38 That's going to be a big deal.
32:40 I'm going to give you a second key there.
32:42 I don't have a yardage number.
32:44 Does he have to throw for 250?
32:48 No, I'm not even thinking that.
32:51 Here is what I'm thinking.
32:54 He's got to be able to get to 250 yards.
32:55 Who cares if he has a bunch of yards, but they're unable to run the football and they
33:04 turn it over.
33:06 Again, time of possession via rushing the football for Josh Jacobs.
33:10 Can they get Josh to 150 yards?
33:13 Second key is they've got to take their shots with Aiden.
33:18 I think Aiden is really accurate.
33:20 I think he's got a great arm.
33:22 But again, he's not the most mobile guy.
33:26 So when he is under pressure, does he know when to tuck it and run?
33:32 That's going to be a game where that's going to be interesting.
33:35 Now if they can't get to him and he's picking them apart, he doesn't have to run.
33:39 So point number two is this, very key, is Aiden's accuracy.
33:46 Now, there was a, and I asked him about it, if you didn't watch the film, go back and
33:53 watch the film from the post game.
33:55 But I asked Aiden about this after the game, there was a pass.
34:01 And I said in the press conference, and I was wrong, it was the last possession of the
34:04 first half.
34:05 And that wasn't what it was.
34:06 I don't remember what possession it was because I got so many notes.
34:09 But there was a possession when he had a guy and he throws the ball into the dirt and people
34:13 were on him pretty good about, oh, he screwed that up, what a terrible, no.
34:18 And I thought at the time, that looked like to me, he was throwing the ball away.
34:26 And I asked him and he said it was.
34:28 So that's an accurate throw to me.
34:31 If the play is, let's say it's a three route, and he's there and he sees that his guy's
34:38 covered and everybody else is covered and he throws it away and doesn't get a penalty
34:44 for pass, a penalty for intentional grounding.
34:52 That's accuracy.
34:54 That's being smart with the football.
34:58 So he throws for three touchdowns and has one interception, golden.
35:03 He has one interception, but Josh Jacobs runs for three, golden.
35:10 It isn't a percentage.
35:13 It's a protection.
35:15 And I just want to see him be accurate with the football and again, accurate.
35:22 And so if you throw the ball away and it's the right call, that's accurate to me.
35:30 Accurate meaning correct, maybe not accurate as far as passing percentage.
35:34 That's why I'm not giving you a passing percentage for him.
35:37 So again, defense, pressure on Tua, making him make the decision that he has to quickly
35:47 decide.
35:48 Remember, in college at Alabama, very rarely, he got to sit back there and do whatever he
35:54 wanted.
35:55 And with Miami this year, he's been able to sit back there and do whatever he wanted.
36:00 The games that they've lost in their six and three are when people made Tua make decisions
36:05 he didn't want to make.
36:08 Now the Raiders can do that, but it's going to be difficult for them to do it.
36:11 Koontz and Tyree are going to have to, one of them is going to have to step up or a combination
36:17 of both.
36:18 And I think Tyree is getting better.
36:19 And I realize every time I say that I get ripped and that's fine.
36:24 I'm okay with that.
36:25 I do think he's getting better.
36:26 I think if you watch the film analytically and go back, you can see things he's doing
36:30 better.
36:31 Someone asked me the other day, what is one thing that he's done to get better?
36:35 Go back and watch how he got off the line of scrimmage in his first game and go back
36:40 and watch how he's getting off the line of scrimmage now.
36:42 It's not even the same player.
36:45 Watch his hands.
36:46 Is he always good?
36:47 No, but he's using his hands to shed people more.
36:50 I think there's a lot of things that he is doing better, but this is going to have to
36:54 be a game because they're going to triple team Max.
36:57 And again, on offense, I really want to see Josh get to 150 yards, but you can mitigate
37:04 those numbers by more accuracy and taking more risks with Aiden.
37:10 I think it's very important here with Aiden.
37:14 He's young and remember, rookies make rookie mistakes.
37:17 And so with Aiden, when he makes a rookie mistake, the ability to just that defense
37:25 to bail them out and come back and not make the same mistake twice, he's going to make
37:29 some.
37:31 And that's why I think this is a game that when I projected seven of 10 times Miami went,
37:39 I don't think that this is a game the Raiders can't win.
37:43 I think they could.
37:44 Like I said, three out of 10, I absolutely think they would.
37:48 So I'm really excited about the football game, but I, yesterday I got a lot of emails from
37:53 people asking me, why are you just saying we're going to lose one guy?
37:57 What kind of fan are you?
37:58 I'm not a fan.
37:59 I'm trying to be analytical with you.
38:03 Now here's what happens.
38:05 So last game, I started getting tweets or started seeing emails.
38:11 Oh, AP sucks.
38:13 He's got to go.
38:14 Well, they came back and won.
38:17 And I got a bunch about Aiden's terrible.
38:19 So finally the last one, I just retweeted it and asked you guys what you thought.
38:23 Boy, did you respond to that guy?
38:25 I don't think Aiden's terrible.
38:27 I think this is a game that I expect the Raiders to lose.
38:31 And so when you understand where I'm coming from, you'll understand my coverage.
38:39 And you're going to understand what am I looking at analytically.
38:43 And so I think this is going to be a big test for the Raiders.
38:48 Now let's walk through that real quick.
38:50 And yes, I'm going to get to them.
38:51 Let's just talk about Amik real quick.
38:54 We'll get our first injury report today.
38:57 I am hearing that if things progress the way they are, that the expectation is that Amik
39:05 will play.
39:06 It's what I'm hearing.
39:07 I am not reporting Amik's back.
39:10 And anything can happen.
39:11 But what I am telling you is based on what I was told yesterday morning and evening.
39:17 If things continue to progress the way they are, I expect Amik to play.
39:23 Now when I am watching this football game and looking at all of the analysis, this is
39:33 going to be a very interesting ball game.
39:36 Now I've said the three games left on the schedule and the Raiders are five and five,
39:41 that I expect them to lose are both Chiefs and Miami.
39:48 I think they can win all three, puncher's chances.
39:52 But remember being analytical, so that puts them at five and eight.
39:56 Again, I'm getting another text, but there's something that if I get this text, I want
40:01 to talk to you about.
40:03 So I need to make sure that this is not what it is.
40:07 All right, it's not.
40:14 Something I'll be talking to you about at another time.
40:16 So what I need you to hear me say is this, then let's look at the games that are left.
40:24 As a fan, you can say, "Man, I think we're going to win all three."
40:27 That's cool.
40:29 I don't blame you.
40:31 I don't blame you.
40:33 But as an analyst, I think those are three games that you lose.
40:38 So that puts you at five and eight.
40:40 Then we go back.
40:41 I think they would have beat the Bolts at the Bolts had Josh McDaniels called the game
40:46 the way Bo Hardegre is.
40:48 So I think they beat the Bolts.
40:51 I think they go on the road and beat the Colts who are playing better, but I think they beat
40:57 the Colts.
41:00 I think they beat the Broncos again.
41:04 I do.
41:05 I think that they beat the Broncos.
41:07 So I talked about the Bolts, the Colts, the Broncos.
41:12 Let's talk about the Vikings.
41:16 Josh Jobs is playing really, really well.
41:19 And I think that game is one that the Raiders, it's at home.
41:25 I think right now I've got them with the six, four, six of the 10 things I look at.
41:30 I've got the advantage to the Raiders, but that's a game that if they lost, I don't think
41:36 is a stupid loss.
41:39 There are some losses like losing to Pittsburgh, stupid loss.
41:43 Raiders should have won that game.
41:44 The Bolts should have won that game.
41:47 The Bears, the Bears is mine.
41:50 I'm still in a mind freeze, a Vulcan mind freeze or whatever that, I think it was from
41:55 Star Trek about how they lost to the Bears.
42:00 The Vikings game would be one that wouldn't shock you.
42:05 I still expect them to win, but it wouldn't shock you.
42:08 So that's why I have the Raiders sitting at a nine and eight record.
42:16 Could go eight and nine.
42:18 The Vikings game to me is the big kicker or nine and eight.
42:21 So that's where this team is.
42:23 That's the expectations.
42:24 Again, I think everything that AP has done is an A plus.
42:29 I think an upset of one of these three games would be mammoth, but I don't think he has
42:35 to get an upset to get the job.
42:40 I think the defense, pressure on Tua, physicality in the first 10 yards with Tyree, and on offense,
42:48 it's rushing the ball and accuracy, not talking about percentage of Aiden.
42:53 But remember this, the Raiders are a very young team.
42:57 And one of the things that fans have to remember, and I say it every year, is young players
43:02 make young player mistakes.
43:04 Okay, now let's use Nate Hobbs super quick.
43:07 Everybody knows I like Nate Hobbs, and everybody knows I think Nate Hobbs is a good player.
43:12 But he's injured a lot, and he'll make some mistakes.
43:16 So my expectations for Nate are higher than my expectations for JB, J'Quarren Bennett.
43:23 And when JB is a third year player, I'm going to have higher expectations for him than a
43:26 rookie.
43:27 Okay, I expect more out of Malcolm Coons than I do Tyree, just where they are in their career.
43:36 So I think this is analytics, not analytics, but analysis, and I wanted you to understand
43:42 my thinking process and where I'm going on all of this.
43:45 I want to give you an update of where I think AP is, where I think Champ Kelly is, Mark
43:48 Davis, and all of it.
43:50 So I appreciate all of you guys.
43:52 Again, thank you for subscribing, following.
43:55 Appreciate all of you very, very much.
43:59 And remember, please subscribe, please follow, please share.
44:02 But for all of us from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast,
44:07 part of the Fans First Sports Network, thanks for joining us.
44:09 You have a great day.
44:10 We'll see you all again soon.
44:16 If I can ever, I keep taking my glasses off and forget.
44:20 I need to have those on to turn this off.
44:22 See you later, everybody.