CPI came in at 6.5%, in line with expectations. Myself and @stockmktnewz break down the numbers!
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00:00 (silence)
00:02 Today we just had CPI for December come in at 6.5%
00:07 year over year with expectations.
00:09 We're gonna break that down and everything else
00:11 that you need to know.
00:12 Before we do that, go ahead, click like and subscribe
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00:16 We're turning them out pretty much daily at this point,
00:19 covering the massive financial news that you need to know
00:23 in order to accurately trade and invest in this stock market.
00:26 So let's get into the headline numbers right here.
00:28 All information source right from the Bureau
00:30 of Labor Statistics.
00:32 I just talked about December CPI coming in at 6.5%.
00:35 That's right in line with expectations.
00:38 Stock market initially took a little bit of a dip
00:40 right when the number came out, it rebounded.
00:42 It is currently green as of pre-market right before open
00:46 here on January 12th.
00:49 In addition to that, we had CPI that came in minus,
00:53 for December that came in minus 0.1% month over month.
00:56 That was also in line with our expectations.
00:58 You had the core CPI you can see here for December,
01:01 as well as month over month.
01:03 Evan, I'm here with you, stock market news.
01:06 Any comments so far on what we're seeing
01:08 and any numbers that are standing out to you?
01:11 - Yeah, I appreciate you for bringing me into it.
01:13 Core CPI came in at 5.7% in line with expectations
01:17 and plus 0.3% month over month also in line
01:21 with expectations.
01:22 So all the headline numbers came in in line.
01:26 The month over month chart I do think is pretty interesting,
01:28 which is on there as well right below that.
01:30 You can kind of see past June,
01:32 the monthly numbers are definitely lower
01:35 and that's what you wanna see.
01:37 It's you can't say the job is done yet,
01:39 but this is definitely the trend that you want to be seeing.
01:41 And it's really interesting to see that negative 0.1% number
01:46 in the context of this chart when it was at 1.3%,
01:49 1.2% month over month in June and March respectively.
01:52 Yeah, I thought that was pretty interesting.
01:55 And then I think as we keep moving down
01:57 into that CPI by category,
02:00 I don't know if there's anything there
02:01 that really stands out to you.
02:03 For those at home reading this, the far right column,
02:06 that is the month over month number
02:08 that you wanna be looking at.
02:09 And then in the middle, the unadjusted percent change,
02:13 the left side of that, that is it has a 6.5% at the top.
02:17 That is the year over year number
02:18 that you wanna be looking at.
02:20 But a couple of very interesting things here.
02:23 Shelter is a very big part of this inflation number
02:27 and inflation in general.
02:28 It's at plus 7.5% year over year
02:31 and plus 0.8% month over month.
02:35 And a couple other things also standing out to me,
02:38 those airline fares up 28.5% year over year.
02:41 This is at the very bottom, but down 3.1% month over month.
02:46 Is there any of these sectors
02:48 or any of these categories standing out to you, Wolf?
02:51 - Yeah, the big thing that I heard people talking about
02:53 was energy, especially things like fuel oil, motor oil,
02:58 which you could see that seasonally adjusted
03:01 percent change is way down.
03:02 However, the thing to remember is
03:04 this is a lagging indicator.
03:06 This is from last, or I guess about 14-ish,
03:09 what, 13-ish days ago as things were.
03:12 So we've seen oil and gas start to come up
03:14 a little bit from them.
03:15 So you have to keep that in mind.
03:17 But I think when you scroll through this,
03:19 those are the numbers that really stand out, right?
03:21 That negative 4.5, negative 9.4, negative 16.6,
03:25 negative 9.2, and negative 9.4
03:28 are really the ones that stood out to me.
03:30 - Yeah, definitely.
03:31 One thing that, last thing I do want to point to here
03:34 is this meats, poultry, fish,
03:36 and the big one at the end, eggs.
03:38 Eggs has become a very big topic on social media
03:41 over the last couple days, weeks, or whatever.
03:44 But most of that impact won't be felt in this number,
03:47 'cause as you said there, Wolf,
03:48 this is from the end of December.
03:50 So, and I feel like most of that debate
03:52 is coming in early January.
03:54 Maybe I'm a little bit off on that,
03:55 but I feel like this meat, poultry, fish, and egg section
03:58 might get a lot of traction next time.
04:00 - So moving into wrapping it up,
04:03 we just talked through a little bit of this,
04:04 but you can see the numbers over the course
04:06 of the last couple of months,
04:09 well, really the last several months here
04:11 for US inflation.
04:12 And obviously this is kind of the way that,
04:14 as a consumer, you want to see it going.
04:16 You want to see a continuous downturn in that number,
04:19 moving from those highs in June all the way down,
04:22 almost 2.6%, well, exactly 2.6% at this point,
04:27 down to 6.5% in December.
04:30 Any quick comments there, Evan?
04:32 - Yeah, I just think you can see this
04:34 in the month over month chart, the June data,
04:36 it's coming down from then.
04:38 It's a good trend that you want to see,
04:40 but it's definitely too early to call victory.
04:42 6.5% is a very large number.
04:44 And Wolf, if you scroll down a little bit more
04:46 to that year over year chart that's on there,
04:48 you can see it kind of for a couple more years in here
04:52 and just how it really shapes out.
04:55 So you can see it really starting to pick up
04:57 in 2021 around March to April,
05:00 and just how it's been over each month
05:01 over the last little bit.
05:02 So I like looking at data this way as well.
05:05 - Yeah, this is a really nice format
05:07 because you can see that we had it for so low for so long,
05:09 really around that target rate of 2%.
05:12 We weren't far off from it,
05:13 really coming out of the financial recession.
05:16 And then now COVID just sent that skyrocketing
05:19 largely due to a lot of money being created, printed,
05:22 and other things within the economy.
05:24 And then we have the month over month as well,
05:26 like we were pointing out.
05:27 Really good points all around.
05:29 Love the quick run through.
05:30 One more time, if you haven't already,
05:32 like and subscribe to this channel.
05:34 We'll have regular, just nice short bits of content
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05:38 in order to invest with confidence in the market.
05:41 Evan, anything else you want to add onto this one?
05:44 - Nope, appreciate the video.
05:45 Make sure you're checking out Wolf Financial.
05:47 If you're from my video, if you're from Wolf's video,
05:49 make sure you're checking out my channel,
05:50 Stock Market News as well.
05:51 And like Wolf said, we're doing a lot of videos.
05:53 This is just the one of many coming.
05:56 - Take care, everybody.
05:57 We'll see you in the next.