In today's video, we dive into a comprehensive analysis of upcoming bank earnings, exploring their performance and impact on the financial sector. We'll also discuss the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations and what they could mean for the economy and your investments.
Additionally, we'll examine Tesla's recent price cuts, looking at their strategy and potential implications for the electric vehicle market. We won't stop there, as we'll also uncover Nancy Pelosi's latest investments, shedding light on the investment decisions of one of the most influential politicians in the United States.
Join us as we delve into these exciting topics and provide you with valuable insights to help you stay informed and make better financial decisions. Don't miss out on this in-depth analysis – hit that subscribe button and stay tuned for more updates!
Get more updates here: https://twitter.com/WOLF_Financial
Additionally, we'll examine Tesla's recent price cuts, looking at their strategy and potential implications for the electric vehicle market. We won't stop there, as we'll also uncover Nancy Pelosi's latest investments, shedding light on the investment decisions of one of the most influential politicians in the United States.
Join us as we delve into these exciting topics and provide you with valuable insights to help you stay informed and make better financial decisions. Don't miss out on this in-depth analysis – hit that subscribe button and stay tuned for more updates!
Get more updates here: https://twitter.com/WOLF_Financial
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Earnings season is here, starting with the banks.
00:05 This is something that everyone has been paying attention to
00:07 because of course we had Silicon Valley Bank,
00:09 we had Credit Suisse, we had UBS.
00:11 It's a massive developing situation
00:13 and we're gonna get a look,
00:14 not just into the financials from this past quarter,
00:16 but forward guidance, which is going to be the key
00:19 to figuring out, do we continue to spiral down a hole here?
00:22 I'm Gav Blacksburg from Wolf Financial.
00:24 I'm here with Evan from Stock Market News.
00:26 We're gonna cover that plus everything else
00:28 you need to know to be a great investor this week.
00:32 Let's get right into things with a look at earnings.
00:34 Starting off, there's not much during the week,
00:36 but of course you have a full slate on Friday.
00:38 You wanna cover what we're looking at there, Evan?
00:40 - Yeah, so you kinda hit it.
00:41 It doesn't really look like this would be
00:43 the start of earnings season,
00:44 but Friday is when it really picks up.
00:46 We have those bank earnings
00:48 and it does signify the start of earnings season each cycle.
00:52 But even before that a little bit,
00:53 we do have Delta as well, Thursday before the close.
00:56 We'll give some good insight into the airline industry.
00:59 And then we also have LVMH, which is a luxury brand.
01:02 Not really traded too much here by a lot of you guys,
01:05 but still is a closely watched company.
01:08 But yeah, all the focus is in on Friday
01:11 and we do have the expectations in here as well.
01:14 We're not gonna read all of these off to you.
01:15 You can kinda see them for yourselves and on the screen.
01:18 It's just kinda maybe something you guys
01:19 wanna come back to on a Friday.
01:21 This is the time to expect the numbers to be released,
01:24 followed by the earnings call,
01:25 which will be at different times throughout the day
01:27 on Friday and then the EPS expectation
01:30 and then the revenue expectation as well.
01:32 You can see UnitedHealthcare, $90 billion.
01:34 It's a lot of money, but the type of company it is,
01:37 it's not gonna have a huge PE.
01:38 And then BlackRock for me,
01:40 BlackRock and JP Morgan are the two
01:42 that I'll be the most fascinated by on this one.
01:45 Well, which one do you think you'll be focused on, Wolf?
01:47 - Yeah, for me, it's definitely gonna be JPM.
01:49 JP Morgan has kind of been heralded as the know-it-all,
01:52 right?
01:53 Jamie Dimon and everything that he says.
01:55 And everyone's kind of said,
01:57 like when it comes down to JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,
02:00 those are kind of the final stands
02:02 and they can't go anywhere, right?
02:03 So looking at this,
02:05 they're certainly expected to have
02:06 some pretty large earnings there, $36 billion.
02:10 And the cool part is we're actually gonna know this
02:12 in the morning on Friday as well.
02:14 So I think that that'll be pretty interesting to see.
02:16 Those are the ones that stand out to me the most.
02:18 Yeah.
02:19 - Yeah, yeah, just one last thing to add.
02:20 You did make a point that I wanna touch on.
02:22 We are gonna hear from all the CEOs
02:23 of these companies as well.
02:24 And Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan,
02:26 a lot of people do like to listen to what he says
02:29 and he just did release his annual letter.
02:30 So maybe he'll be reiterating stuff from that.
02:33 But I still think the earnings calls for these bank CEOs
02:36 will be really interesting.
02:38 And we'll learn a lot about how they're feeling
02:40 about the economy and everything that just happened
02:43 in their sector.
02:44 But we are moving forward and looking on
02:46 at the macro events and Fed speakers coming up this week.
02:49 We have a lot of Fed presidents
02:51 and we were just talking about earnings season there,
02:53 but we have one of the biggest macro events
02:55 that comes at each month and that is CPI inflation.
02:59 The market is super, super focused on that.
03:02 That should be out at Wednesday at 8.30 a.m. Eastern.
03:05 I know it doesn't say the forecast on here,
03:07 but the median forecast for CPI year over year is plus 5.2%.
03:12 And that's down from plus 6% year over year
03:17 in the last month and for February,
03:19 I almost said last quarter.
03:20 And then CPI month over month is expected to be plus 0.3%
03:25 compared to plus 0.4% from last month.
03:28 So even if you annualize out that plus 3% number
03:32 and you get 12, that's 3.6% inflation.
03:34 So that's kind of the annualized expectation.
03:36 That's still above the 2% that the Fed does want.
03:40 So we're still not quite there
03:42 and we'll see kind of how they react to this.
03:44 But 5.2 is the number that you guys have to keep on watch
03:48 as the bar of if we'll have a good CPI report
03:52 or bad CPI report.
03:53 But Wolf, is there anything on this first page
03:55 Monday through Wednesday that's standing out to you?
03:58 - Yeah, first off, everybody,
04:00 if you made it this far in the video,
04:01 please go ahead and hit the like button.
04:02 It does wonders for the YouTube algo
04:04 to get this out to more people
04:06 so that more can learn and be prepared
04:08 for the massive economic events
04:09 that we do have appearing this week.
04:11 I think it's just interesting.
04:13 We're continuing to see this move down
04:15 when it looks at CPI, right?
04:17 We're continuing to see inflation
04:18 potentially becoming more under control.
04:20 And we all know that it's as well a lagging indicator.
04:23 People often look at it as about nine month lag on CPI.
04:26 So just continuing to see that number come down.
04:28 The goal, as we all know, is 2%.
04:31 That's what the Fed's reiterated.
04:33 And why does this matter?
04:35 It matters because it factors into rate hikes, right?
04:38 And ultimately, if we can continue
04:40 to get this number coming down,
04:41 the hope is we can see one more rate hike of 25 basis points
04:45 and be finished after that.
04:47 And that is right now what CME FedWatch is leaning towards,
04:51 at least when it comes to expectations.
04:53 Do you want me to roll into the latter part of the week,
04:54 Evan?
04:55 - Just very quickly, the last thing on Wednesday,
04:58 the minutes from the last FOMC meeting,
05:00 I do think will be interesting.
05:02 So normally I don't find those meetings that fascinating
05:04 because we do hear so much from these Fed presidents
05:07 speaking 50 times a day.
05:09 But obviously they were in the quiet period
05:11 and then we had the FOMC speech
05:12 and we've heard them a little bit,
05:13 but it'd be very interesting to hear
05:15 what they were talking about in that meeting
05:17 and hear how the overall tenor was.
05:20 So, and like how many people were voting each direction.
05:22 So that's actually something
05:23 that I will be watching very closely.
05:26 And then on Thursday and Friday,
05:27 the biggest thing for me is PPI to keep on watch.
05:31 That is coming out at 8.30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday.
05:35 The expectation for PPI is plus 3.1% year over year,
05:40 which is quite a large drop from last month of 4.6%.
05:44 So we'll have to see really what's happening there.
05:46 And then the month over month expectation is plus 0.1%
05:51 compared to minus 0.1% from last month.
05:54 So PPI definitely on watch,
05:55 then also those jobless claims
05:56 will be definitely something that the market watches.
05:59 But I don't know if there's anything else in here
06:00 that you're fascinated by, Will.
06:02 - Not too much else.
06:04 I think you covered it pretty well.
06:07 Let's roll into some of the other big stories of the week,
06:10 starting out with the Honorable Nancy Pelosi,
06:13 who placed this trade.
06:15 Actually, this was placed a few weeks ago, right?
06:17 But this is when we actually finally got the filing date
06:20 of a large purchase of Apple shares.
06:23 - Yeah, so these are really stories from the last 24 hours
06:26 of when we were filming it.
06:27 So Friday night, Saturday morning.
06:29 And this is a trade that Nancy Pelosi made.
06:32 As Will said there, don't ask us why they get to wait
06:35 a month after they make the trades
06:37 to actually come in and file it.
06:39 But here we are seeing this.
06:40 She bought these call options.
06:42 She bought them deep in the money,
06:43 so she would have paid a large premium up front,
06:46 but she exercised them here.
06:48 And that other company is a investment company
06:51 that has a luxury hotel property in San Francisco
06:55 that she is also involved with.
06:56 So couple stuff there.
06:58 Nancy Pelosi deploying a little bit cash
07:01 on some of those calls.
07:02 She had everyone likes to watch Nancy.
07:03 I wonder how many more plays we're gonna get from her
07:06 as she is leaving her role in office.
07:09 So that's something to keep out for.
07:11 But continuing on, we also had Tesla announcing
07:14 a bunch of price cuts across their lineup in the US
07:18 for as much as $5,000.
07:19 The base cost of the Model 3 went down by $1,000.
07:23 As you can see there, Tesla pricing has been
07:27 a very, very interesting conversation around them recently.
07:30 And it's been affecting the entire industry.
07:32 So definitely something to keep on watch.
07:35 Tesla is adjusting their prices very, very quickly.
07:38 They've been known to do that in the past
07:40 and are continuing to do it now.
07:42 They do have their earnings in a couple weeks at this point.
07:45 So we will get to see how their margins
07:47 and how the profitability of it will be.
07:50 That's definitely going to be very interesting
07:52 and must be kept on watch.
07:53 But yeah, some interesting stuff around Tesla.
07:55 And then the last story here,
07:57 ExxonMobil has reportedly held preliminary talks
08:00 with Pioneer, ticker PXD, about a possible acquisition.
08:04 So the deal is still a very early days
08:07 and it could be not materialized
08:10 or it could turn out that Exxon is looking
08:12 at a different company
08:13 or ends up looking at a different company.
08:15 But bottom line is, based on the report,
08:17 ExxonMobil is said to be on the hunt
08:19 for a very, very large deal.
08:21 And that's according to the Wall Street Journal.
08:23 So we'll have to see and see how that does.
08:25 But I think that's a couple of the biggest stories
08:27 over the last little bit.
08:29 Wolf, if you have anything, first of all,
08:31 if you've enjoyed the video, make sure you leave a like,
08:33 drop a comment, make sure you subscribe to our channel.
08:35 But yeah, Wolf, anything else you want to leave people with?
08:38 - Yeah, I think we're going to get a big move
08:39 on Tesla on Monday.
08:41 Hard to tell whether that's up or down.
08:42 There was some other news this weekend around them too.
08:44 But I'm looking for a three to 5% move one way or the other.
08:47 So I'll probably be trading Tesla with Exxon.
08:50 Really interesting sector, Exxon and Oxy
08:52 and the way that they go back and forth.
08:54 So super exciting to see oil have this huge move,
08:57 have it continue, have backing from Buffett.
08:59 That's everything from myself today.
09:01 Thank you to Stock Market News for doing this video with me.
09:05 If you enjoyed it, like he said,
09:07 make sure you hit the like button.
09:08 We'll see you in the next one.