Rakhen Nazar Us Par Jo Rakhe Nazar Se Ojhal, Kiya Hai Survivor Bias Jaane Haroon Rafiq Se
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00:00 "Be careful, be careful."
00:03 "Be careful, be careful."
00:08 "Be careful, be careful."
00:12 Welcome back, viewers.
00:13 Now, our segment is called 'Jahan-e-Danish'.
00:15 - Yes! - Sir!
00:17 - Really? - I don't know why 'Jahan-e-Danish'
00:19 has come to this earth.
00:21 In 'Jahan-e-Danish',
00:22 the thing I want to talk about today is
00:26 that there is a thing in the world
00:28 which is called 'Survivor's Bias'.
00:30 - What does it mean? - It means
00:32 that we only see what we can see.
00:37 We never see what we can't see.
00:40 How can we see what we can't see?
00:42 That's the question.
00:44 The fact is that whenever we take decisions in life
00:48 about anything,
00:49 about business, about relationships,
00:52 about friendships and other things,
00:55 we always keep in mind
00:59 what we can see.
01:00 - Yes. - Your question is pertinent.
01:03 How can we see what we can't see?
01:06 For example, you know that there is something behind a wall.
01:10 - Yes. - Until you know that,
01:12 don't take a decision about that wall.
01:15 Let me explain it to you in another way.
01:16 People say that people look at the envelope
01:19 and guess the content of the letter.
01:21 - Yes. - You shouldn't do that.
01:23 You should read what is not written in the letter.
01:26 - Oh. - Let me give you another example.
01:28 Often, when someone asks you,
01:31 your friend, your close relative, your brother,
01:34 "How are you?"
01:35 We formally say, "I am fine."
01:37 - Actually, he is not asking you. - Yes.
01:39 "How are you?"
01:41 He is telling you that he loves you.
01:43 - Yes. - Wow.
01:44 When a friend of yours comes and hugs you
01:47 and says, "Irza, I kept thinking about you last night."
01:50 She is not saying this.
01:52 She is saying that she loves you so much
01:55 that when you are worried, I am worried too.
01:57 But I am sorry, sir. I know a little about this.
01:59 Now, people have taken out the intention
02:02 that when I ask someone,
02:05 "How are you?"
02:07 He immediately thinks that he needs something.
02:09 He needs some work or money.
02:12 He is asking about the situation.
02:14 - "Is there anything?" - Yes.
02:16 He says that there is no situation.
02:17 - He is asking about work. - Yes.
02:20 "I have been unemployed for two months."
02:22 He brings his salary at night.
02:24 He says that he is a pauper.
02:26 Mr. Agar, you are one of those people.
02:29 You are saying this.
02:30 - This is about people. - Yes.
02:35 In business, we always see what is visible.
02:39 I will clarify this.
02:41 Whenever you take business decisions,
02:43 you see what is not visible.
02:44 For example, in 1940, when the war was going on,
02:48 America made a team of people
02:51 who knew statistics and mathematics.
02:55 They were asked to tell them
02:58 what the war figures were saying.
03:02 How can we overpower our enemy?
03:04 - Yes. - During this time, an incident happened.
03:07 All the ships that came back to Germany after bombardment,
03:11 they used to see where they were shot.
03:14 They collected the data of many ships.
03:18 After collecting the data of many ships,
03:19 they made a map of the ships.
03:22 They told that on both the wings,
03:24 tail and fuel tank,
03:27 there were the most number of bullets.
03:29 They told them to arm the ships
03:32 in these three or four places
03:34 so that the ship is safe.
03:35 There was a mathematician named Abraham Wald.
03:40 He went ahead and said that we should never make this mistake.
03:43 We should never arm the ship from this place.
03:45 He said that the place where the bullets were more.
03:46 They said that he has lost his mind.
03:49 - The place where the bullets were more. - Yes.
03:51 He said that they could see the ships
03:54 and that they came back.
03:56 So, it means that if the bullets were fired here,
03:59 the ships would come back.
04:01 - Wow! - That's amazing.
04:03 They should arm the ships in such a place
04:06 so that the ships don't come back.
04:07 - Yes. - Wow!
04:08 So, they left the places
04:10 where the bullets were not fired.
04:14 They armed the ships.
04:15 It's not based on probabilities, it's based on statistics.
04:18 Exactly.
04:19 Another example is the restaurants.
04:21 You see that there are many restaurants.
04:24 There are so many that when a rich man goes to eat,
04:26 he says that he should run a restaurant.
04:28 - Yes. - Yes.
04:29 You only see the ones that are running.
04:32 Because in the world, there are many restaurants.
04:35 They don't run for three years.
04:37 They close within three years.
04:39 - I see. - If a restaurant runs for five to seven years,
04:43 then it becomes a big, successful restaurant.
04:47 If you count that,
04:49 it's in lakhs.
04:50 You say that you will never run a restaurant.
04:53 - Yes. - This is called survivor bias.
04:56 You only see the successful ones.
04:58 We can directly link the survivor bias
05:01 with critical thinking.
05:03 - Absolutely. - There are many countries
05:05 that have the concept of the 10th man.
05:07 Hollywood has named it in a way.
05:09 But the concept is that it's a very obvious thing.
05:12 Nine people say that it will happen.
05:15 So, it's the responsibility of the 10th man
05:18 to think the opposite of it.
05:19 And to give all the details about it.
05:21 Thank God.
05:23 This is the first thing that came without a film.
05:25 No, Mr. Sarnana. You didn't say that.
05:28 The matter started with Hollywood.
05:29 Hollywood only makes films.
05:31 - Hollywood only makes films. - Only films.
05:33 What else?
05:34 Why didn't they name it?
05:37 They said Hollywood. All the films came in that.
05:39 In any case, the society that wants to progress
05:41 should see everything from all the aspects of the world.
05:44 - Only then it can survive. - Wow.
05:45 This is absolutely right.
05:47 Now people think that we become comedians
05:53 after seeing the salaries of Agha Majid and Salim Albela.
05:55 Yes.
05:56 Okay. People who think..
05:57 I often think, Irza,
06:00 that when I came to this field, I saw many people
06:03 who don't have this field.
06:06 - Yes. - Yes.
06:07 You don't have acting, comedy, punch, timing.
06:13 And I don't say this. I am not discouraging anyone.
06:16 But if you have worked hard for 10-15 years
06:19 and still you didn't go above 1%..
06:22 - I didn't. - ..then maybe nature
06:25 - has kept something else in you. - Yes.
06:27 But Mr. Haroon, you told Amanat so many things
06:30 that he didn't even eat here.
06:31 I am learning from you. I have started working.
06:35 Many people meet me and directly say,
06:38 "We want to do an ARY."
06:40 - Direct. - Okay.
06:42 They say, "Take us. We don't have any process."
06:45 Look, they think that your ARY has so much power
06:50 that they can't take you out.
06:52 Anyway, there are many people.
06:58 I say, those who are trying their luck, may God bless them.
07:02 - Amen. - Amen.
07:04 It's a sad thing that many homes have been destroyed.
07:09 People have lost their children.
07:11 The wife has left the house.
07:14 What was the 'Bain' in this?
07:15 - Sir, in Farsi, it's called 'Afsoz'. - 'Tab tab'.
07:17 But I think it's not necessary that everyone does comedy in this field.
07:24 Many times, you have to be the pillar of love.
07:26 - Yes. - Exactly.
07:27 You have to present yourself so that you can be the comedy.
07:31 Mr. Agha, how many times have you been the pillar of love?
07:34 Sir, there is no rocket science for that.
07:38 I don't have to be the pillar of love.
07:40 - It should be. - Exactly.
07:41 When you become the pillar of love on this
07:44 you will surely get a few punches.
07:47 You have to shoot the arrow that will pierce your heart.
07:51 - Wow. - Wow.
07:53 Amazing.
07:54 Sir, Mr. Aman used to say, "May God bless you."
07:56 Did Mr. Aman meet you?
07:58 Yes, sir. We are from the same locality.
08:00 Yes. We are from the same area.
08:03 Okay. He was a very humble man.
08:05 - He used to meet you. - Yes.
08:06 Sir, he used to say, "It's not necessary that everyone is the best man."
08:09 How do you say that?
08:11 Didn't you think about it?
08:13 Didn't you think about this sentence?
08:14 He used to say, "It's not necessary that everyone is the best man."
08:19 Not the best man, but the batsman.
08:24 We have a lot of money.
08:25 - We have spent it all. - Okay.
08:27 - I went to Haroon sir. - Yes.
08:29 He has a transfer in the entire locality.
08:32 So what?
08:33 I think he has a zero in the 500th ward.
08:35 Mr. Aman was in this field.
08:42 - But he was a great man. - Amazing.
08:45 - Amazing. - Amazing.
08:46 You will be surprised that once Mr. Aman came to me.
08:50 - May God bless him. - Amen.
08:52 He came and said that he wants to produce a drama in Faisalabad.
08:57 And I will need this much money for that.
09:00 I need a producer.
09:02 And it's possible, he said it himself,
09:04 that this drama will flop.
09:06 But if it flops,
09:08 I will pay the entire amount to that person.
09:13 Otherwise, we will distribute the profit.
09:16 I introduced him to a person.
09:18 And I still...
09:19 I mean, we can only pray for him.
09:22 I still remember that the drama flopped.
09:25 It didn't work.
09:26 And he had already paid all the artists and actors.
09:31 He came to my house.
09:32 And he called that person.
09:34 And he paid the entire amount.
09:37 And he said,
09:38 I have found out in these three days
09:41 that this drama will flop.
09:43 You can go and collect your money.
09:44 - Wow. - Wow.
09:47 Viewers, this was today's show.
09:49 We will meet you in the next show.
09:51 Take care.
09:53 Goodbye.
09:54 "Be careful."