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00:00 JP Morgan says that oil prices could reach $120 per barrel.
00:07 Are these really warnings or are we going to see this figure, even over the long term,
00:13 in terms of oil prices?
00:15 Why these expectations?
00:17 We've been talking about levels since November.
00:20 Let's say it's almost a year or higher levels per year.
00:24 I mean, Campbrent, after reaching the $95 per barrel level, we're talking about highs,
00:30 since the beginning of July alone, it's exceeded 25% per barrel.
00:36 The most prominent reasons for the highs we've seen on the prices, 25% per barrel,
00:41 a higher demand for oil than expected, on the other hand,
00:45 but the biggest percentage that led to these levels and the road towards or above $90
00:51 were the voluntary reductions that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia
00:57 made with 1.3 million barrels, until the end of 2023.
01:05 The Kingdom and Russia made these reductions, but they extended them until the end of this year.
01:11 And the expectations of any demand or the demand for oil and oil supplies
01:16 are what support these highs that we've seen.
01:20 The continued effects of oil prices on the global economy
01:23 may again bring back the fear of these prices.
01:29 Specifically, if we expect to see an oil barrel of $120,
01:34 the overall local growth rate is expected to continue at half the 100-point mark
01:40 for only two quarters.
01:42 And this is what you expect, as we've said,
01:45 that with the beginning of 2024, we may see these highs.
01:50 The effects may be great on the global economy
01:53 if oil prices reach the $120 level.
01:57 If we talk about these expectations that J.P. Morgan had
02:01 in the event of continued pressure on the supply and the demand,
02:04 the oil price at $120 per barrel rose by 60%
02:09 in the second half of 2023.
02:13 The effects of these highs and levels,
02:16 we've talked about the decline in the global overall local growth rate
02:21 at 40%, and it may reach or decline by 1.3%
02:27 and in this case, the main barrier that threatens the expectations of the economy
02:34 and even the monetary policy makers is inflation.
02:37 We've said that these prices may continue to pressure inflation
02:42 and give us a larger inflation rate of 6% by the end of 2023.
02:48 This is only in the near term.
02:50 If we talk about prices continuing to be high until the next year,
02:54 and after that, its effects may be greater
02:57 and the inflation rate may become greater.
02:59 Will we really see $120 for the oil barrel?