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Transcript
00:00 Well, let's talk a bit more then about those images we're getting out of Libya with Claudia Gazini.
00:05 She's a Libya analyst at the International Crisis Group.
00:08 Welcome to the programme and thank you for joining us.
00:11 Thank you. Nice to be with you.
00:14 Around 2,000 people are confirmed to have been killed in Libya, but over 10,000 are missing.
00:21 Now, communications are largely cut off in the east for the moment.
00:24 Journalists aren't able to reach the worst affected areas.
00:27 So do we not have a full sense of the scale of this crisis yet?
00:33 Well, the images we saw from Dardana certainly give us the scale of the damage in that city.
00:38 It's a city whose centre has been completely wiped out.
00:42 And we're talking about a flood of water that has brought down six, seven storey buildings.
00:48 And so you can imagine with those buildings being residential areas as well,
00:53 you can imagine that the death toll is going to be very high,
00:57 probably even beyond those 2,000 that have already been reported.
01:01 It's more difficult to get a sense of the damage in the smaller towns.
01:06 But as far as we know so far in the other areas, the death toll is lower,
01:12 simply because of the geography. Also, the other towns, it's flatter.
01:16 Dardana is much more dramatic. It has cliffs behind it. It's a city on the sea.
01:21 So when the dams broke, the water came gushing down the mountain at huge speed,
01:27 huge pressure bringing down the building.
01:30 So it's really there where we're going to see the greatest extent of damage and the highest death toll.
01:36 And the images that we're looking at are from the east of the country,
01:39 which is run by a government not recognised by most countries.
01:43 The so-called internationally recognised government of Libya operates from the west of the country.
01:49 How do you think that will complicate the rescue efforts that clearly are so urgently needed now?
01:56 Certainly it will complicate for two reasons.
01:58 First, that it is a Tripoli government that really has the bulk of the money
02:05 that is needed to fund the reconstruction efforts, to fund the assistance.
02:11 They do cooperate somehow with the eastern-based government,
02:14 but the logistics have to go through the eastern-based government.
02:17 But more than the government, the eastern-based military authorities,
02:21 which are this military coalition called the Libyan National Army,
02:26 which does not, as you explained, does not recognise the Tripoli-based government as being the official one.
02:33 They are contacts between the two sides.
02:35 And we can only hope that this tragedy, which really affects the east of Libya,
02:40 but affects the country as a whole, will persuade the Libyan politicians
02:46 to set aside their political bickering and rivalries and really work together
02:52 towards salvaging what can be salvaged in the short run.
02:58 And the conflict in Libya in different forms has been going on for over a decade now.
03:04 As you say, the country is divided,
03:07 and that means presumably rather mundane government activities
03:11 like ensuring infrastructure is properly maintained hasn't always happened.
03:17 Do you think that might be a part of the reason why there will be such a high death toll in Libya now?
03:23 There's no doubt that in 10 years since the fall of the Qadhafi regime
03:28 and in the following 10 years of war and political rivalries and isolation,
03:34 Libya, both governments have completely neglected the infrastructure.
03:39 In the east of the country, there have been activists, there have been engineers
03:43 who have been trying to bring the attention to the failing infrastructure.
03:49 It's a very basic infrastructure.
03:51 There's just one main road that goes from Benghazi, which is the main city in eastern Libya, further east.
03:57 So if there's damage on that road, if there's damage on the bridges,
04:00 and there's one key bridge that activists have been saying needs repair,
04:04 it means, for the purpose of this effort to bring aid,
04:10 it means that that bridge cannot be crossed because trucks cannot go over that bridge.
04:17 The little valley under the bridge where there's an alternate road has been wiped away by the floods.
04:23 So the infrastructure is a failing infrastructure to start with
04:27 and has contributed to the damage that we've seen.
04:31 But that very failing infrastructure will make it even more difficult
04:35 to bring aid and rescue to the towns that are most affected.
04:39 And you spoke about the fact that the government in the west, in Tripoli,
04:43 has said that they do want to try and help the civilians affected in the east.
04:47 There are also governments around the world, Italy for one, that is saying it will supply aid as well.
04:54 How complicated will it be to get that humanitarian aid in?
04:58 Will it have to go through the Tripoli government or can it go directly to the east?
05:02 Well, there are two problems.
05:04 One is logistics, as I said, even if we've seen already a great mobilisation by Libyans in western Libya,
05:13 bringing together aid, food, blankets and so on in truck convoys that have departed.
05:19 But the logistic problem is getting that truck across eastern Libya as the roads are interrupted.
05:26 Then there's the political problem, as you said.
05:29 The aid can be delivered directly to Benghazi.
05:32 Benghazi has always been the focal point for international assistance in eastern Libya.
05:38 So aid doesn't necessarily need to go physically through western Libya.
05:43 Benghazi can be a delivery point.
05:46 But as I said, the problem then is how do you get further east from Benghazi
05:51 to all the towns that are affected?
05:53 Geographically, actually, it would make more sense to bring the aid to Tobruk,
05:56 which is the furthest city on the eastern border close to Egypt,
06:02 because the terrain from there towards Derna and towards the affected areas is much smoother.
06:08 There are less deep valleys that make the transit difficult.
06:13 Claudia Gauzini talking to us there from the International Crisis Group.
06:17 I want to thank you very much for your analysis and your time.
06:20 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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