SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his suggested starts and sits for the 2023 NFL Week 1 slate. He highlights the Jets' running back situation during a 'Sit 'Em' segment.
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00:00 Week one of the fantasy football season is finally here and that means it's time to start making those tough sit start decisions.
00:07 To join us today, Michael Fabiano, SI's senior fantasy analyst.
00:11 Fabs, let's kick it off with the quarterback position. Who are you definitely starting this weekend?
00:15 Let's go to the QB5 from last year and that's Gino Smith. Yeah, I mean I still can't get over that.
00:23 He was phenomenal last year and this week he's got the Rams and the Rams defense is not going to be good.
00:28 No Jalen Ramsey. This could be a high scoring game for the Seattle passing game. So start Gino Smith.
00:36 And I also like Kirk Cousins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I mean their defense is not what it
00:41 used to be. Let's put it that way. And Cousins scored more than 18 fantasy points in all but
00:45 two of nine starts at home last year. So when Kirk is at home, he's a very good fantasy option.
00:52 And as far as who you want to sit this weekend, you're being cautious with a couple of veteran
00:58 quarterbacks. And we'll start off with Deshaun Watson there against the Cincinnati Bengals.
01:02 He's going to be active in a lot of leagues this week, especially multi-quarterback leagues, but I
01:06 would really temper expectations. The Bengals allowed the third fewest points per game in terms
01:11 of pass attempts to quarterbacks last year. And this is a very tough defense. So beware Deshaun
01:18 Watson. He's going to have to have some love on the ground to have a big game. And then Aaron Rodgers,
01:22 and I get it, maybe this is not a popular opinion, but the matchup's not great this week on Monday
01:26 night against the Buffalo Bills. They allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points per pass attempt last
01:32 year. And when you look at fantasy points data, it shows the Bills allowed 25% fewer points to
01:37 quarterbacks based on schedule adjusted points. All right, let's jump on over to the running
01:43 back position. Couple of juicy matchups for the guys you're starting this weekend.
01:47 Anytime a running back is playing the Houston Texans, I'm starting them. And that's J.K. Dobbins
01:53 this week. And let's see how healthy the knee is. Should be good to go. Should be healthier than
01:57 he's been in a while. The Texans gave up the most fantasy points to running backs last year. In fact,
02:02 they gave up 34.6% more points to running backs last season when you look at the schedule adjusted
02:09 points. And then I'm also going to start Cam Akers. The Rams offense, well, Cooper Cup has
02:13 banged up. They're going to have to run the ball against Seattle. And the Seahawks were bad against
02:16 the run last year. In fact, they gave up the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.
02:21 So start Cam Akers as an RB2. I love that play. All right. Who are you sitting at running back
02:27 this weekend? I know you probably have to play Najee Harris. I get it. OK, but in DFS, you probably
02:33 want to avoid him. Let's play the Niners. All right. The Niners were amazing against the run
02:37 last year. No team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than San Francisco.
02:42 They were not a treat if you were starting the running backs against them. So keep that in mind
02:47 this week. To me, he's no more than a low RB2 at best. And then I'm going to be sitting
02:52 Dalvin Cook and Brees Hall. Why? Well, because first off, didn't see anything from either one
02:57 of them in the preseason. They're both coming off injuries. And the matchup's not great. I mean,
03:02 Buffalo's defense was pretty tough against the running back position last season. So I guess
03:07 if I have to start one Jets running back, maybe it's Brees Hall. But I don't have a lot of faith
03:11 in either one of these guys putting up a big stat line against Buffalo. So beginning to sound like
03:16 the only Jet you're starting this weekend is probably Garrett Wilson. So let's just jump over
03:20 to the wide receiver position. Who are you definitely starting this weekend? I like Jahan
03:26 Dotson. He's kind of a fantasy darling in the sleeper category, right? A lot of people, including
03:31 myself, really high on him. And even if Terry McLaurin is able to play, he's been back at
03:35 practice this week. He's got a toe injury. I still think this is a really good matchup for Dotson.
03:39 So get him into your lineup. Maybe he's a flex starter if McLaurin's able to go. And then let's
03:44 go to Drake London against the Carolina Panthers. London's a breakout candidate in a lot of leagues.
03:49 Now the quarterback position is a big question mark in Atlanta with Desmond Ritter, but Carolina's
03:55 defense allowed the highest percentage of points based on schedule adjustment points last year to
04:00 wide receivers. So Drake London is in a good spot to succeed. And it looks like you are sitting
04:06 DJ Moore in his first start with Chicago. Ooh, spicy. Another player that a lot of people will
04:13 probably have to play. And I totally get that, but I just don't love the matchup. I mean,
04:17 the Packers defense was tough on wide receivers last year. They gave up only 13 touchdowns
04:21 through the air and Green Bay allowed a minus 10.4% in terms of the wide receivers points based
04:28 on the schedule adjusted. So for me, DJ Moore is a risk. He's no more than a flex. And then
04:34 Hollywood Brown, it looks like the Cardinals are going to start Joshua Dobbs against the
04:38 commanders. This guy just was acquired by the team. This offense is an absolute mess.
04:44 The commanders have a really good defense and Marquise Brown could see some garbage time points,
04:49 which maybe makes him a risk reward flex at best. But I don't know that there's any Cardinals that
04:55 I trust this week, maybe outside of James Connery. And he even, he's a risk. Okay. Finally, we've
05:01 made it to the tight end position, which may be the most important part of this video this week,
05:04 because we have a lot of injuries in the news, potentially Travis Kelsey, potentially George
05:09 Kittle won't play, potentially Mark Andrews is not practicing. So even one of these guys,
05:13 I know that's on your start list is also often on the waiver wire. Let's kick it off. Who are
05:18 we starting this week? We all need this info fabs. It's tough not to like Tyler Higby. Cooper
05:24 Kump is hurt. And we've heard reports from, I guess, Matt Stafford's wife that he isn't connecting
05:30 with the younger players, but he knows Higby and the Seahawks gave up the second most points in
05:34 tight ends last year. So do the math. In this case, one plus one equals start Tyler Higby.
05:40 And I also like David Njoku tight ends thin. You just mentioned it. You got some guys with injuries
05:45 and overall it's, it's a tough position to decipher. Njoku is coming off a great camp.
05:50 He's got a rapport with Deshaun Watson. The last time he played the Bengals, he had seven catches
05:56 and almost 19 fantasy points. So he is a low end tight end one this week in that AFC North battle.
06:02 And if you had the luxury, who are you sitting this weekend at the position?
06:06 Was there anything good said about Kyle Pitts like all summer? I mean,
06:11 if there was, I didn't hear it. The guy just scares me. And I know we talked about him a
06:16 couple of years ago. He's a unicorn, this and that. I just don't love Kyle Pitts. He hasn't
06:21 really given me a lot of confidence. The Panthers also allowed the 10th fewest points of tight ends
06:25 last year and Pitts has been held to fewer than five points in two of his four career games against
06:30 them. So if you've got depth and you probably don't, I know you probably got to play Pitts.
06:34 You don't have to like it. And then Dalton Schultz, formerly of my beloved and your beloved
06:39 Dallas Cowboys going up against the Ravens. I don't love the matchup against Baltimore.
06:43 They allowed the ninth fewest points to the position last year. And you got a rookie quarterback
06:47 under center and CJ Stroud, who's got to start his career in Baltimore. No, thank you. I'm going
06:52 to avoid Dalton Schultz this weekend. Fabulous recommendations. As always, I cannot wait.
06:59 Fantasy football season finally kicking off. Hang with us at SI. We're going to update these start
07:04 sits all the way up to the minute. You'll find it at si.com/fantasy and hang with us every single
07:09 week. We'll be putting out fiery video content for you so you can win your fantasy football weeks.