G20: 'War in Ukraine isn't formally on summit agenda & yet it will absolutely dominate discussions'
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00:00 Now later this week the world's leaders will gather in New Delhi, India for the G20 summit.
00:05 It's the first time India is hosting the event and to get a sense of the big issues at this
00:10 year's gathering I'm very pleased to be joined by Tristan Naylor. He's a lecturer in international
00:15 politics at the University of Cambridge and he joins us now from New Delhi. Hello to you sir,
00:20 thanks very much indeed for joining us. Thank you. So the G20 last year unsurprisingly was dominated
00:28 by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Do you think it will do so again this weekend? It will be
00:34 very much a repeat of what we saw last year at the summit in Bali. Once again the war on Ukraine
00:42 isn't formally on the summit agenda and yet it will absolutely dominate discussions here this
00:49 weekend in New Delhi without question. And Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, isn't attending, no big
00:56 surprise there, but Xi Jinping of China isn't going either even though it was thought actually
01:01 he might go. Why do you think he's staying away? Well simply put the Chinese position on the war
01:11 on Ukraine is certainly out of step with most of the G20 members as well. Both Russia and China have
01:20 disassociated themselves with any language in working group paragraphs in the preparatory
01:26 meetings for the summit and so there's very little room for agreement on really the big issues that
01:34 matter and I think that Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, has decided that it's just not worth
01:40 coming, it's not worth coming to be lectured to by others. It feels that wouldn't be a good thing
01:48 for him and it's not something he's interested in and I suspect this also means that he doesn't
01:53 think that it's very likely that the leaders will reach a consensus agreement at the end of the
01:59 weekend. Well I was going to ask you about that because even though Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin
02:05 aren't going this year, clearly there are real divisions and as you say there is talk ahead of
02:11 the summit that this could be the first time a G20 comes to an end without the world leaders agreeing
02:18 on some kind of communique. Do you think then that is likely and if it happens what does that
02:25 tell us about the state of diplomacy today? Well it's certainly more likely of an outcome than we
02:32 have ever seen before so that doesn't bode well. It's not impossible, it is always within the
02:40 realm of possibility that the senior diplomats and the leaders here can clutch victory from the jaws
02:47 of defeat on the final night of the summit but it is indeed less likely than ever before.
02:54 The Indian presidency had hoped as a sort of fallback measure to use the communique that
03:02 it was agreed in Bali last year as sort of the baseline that if we can't agree to anything new
03:08 can we at least agree to what we agreed to last year and what we're learning now is that both
03:15 the Russian delegation and the Chinese delegation have said that that's no longer acceptable,
03:21 they can no longer sign up to that in their words because of increased intervention by the West in
03:30 the war in Ukraine. So there's no real fallback position here, it is going to be a tense, it's
03:36 going to be a very interesting weekend ahead and in terms of your second question what does this
03:42 mean for the world that we find ourselves in now, I think we're very likely at least in the near to
03:48 mid-term to see big international summits ending with no consensus agreement for the time being.
03:59 Simply put the major powers in the world find themselves at odds with one another over the
04:05 big issues that really matter and that's just not a recipe for consensus and cooperation.
04:11 And I'm interested in your thoughts on India's role as the first time it's ever hosted a G20,
04:17 what kind of image do you think Narendra Modi wants to project onto the world stage this weekend?
04:23 The Indian Prime Minister wants to project this image of India having finally taken its place,
04:32 not just at the top table of global governance, global economic governance in particular,
04:38 but indeed being able to lead that table. This is a major moment in performing and declaring
04:46 India's status as one of the major powers in the world. Whether or not Narendra Modi can
04:55 achieve a consensus communique at the conclusion of the summit will have a big effect on how then
05:00 the rest of the world sees that status and whether or not they recognise India as rightfully having
05:09 a place not just at the table but as a leader at the table. And just a final thought from you,
05:14 it's been reported, although it hasn't been confirmed for the moment, that the African
05:18 Union will be granted permanent membership at the G20 this year. That would give it the
05:23 same status as the European Union. How significant would that be?
05:28 I think it would be very significant. The African Union has been invited as a guest
05:34 for years and years and years. This would sort of elevate their status within the club. It's
05:41 certainly something that is long overdue. The African continent remains badly underrepresented
05:48 in this club. And I do think it's quite likely. I've not heard anything here yet about there being
05:55 division on this issue. And if anything, the leaders and certainly the host at the conclusion
06:01 of the summit always need something to announce, some sort of big success to cite as the hallmark
06:07 of the summit. And I reckon that even if there is no communique, we're very likely to hear Prime
06:13 Minister Modi at the end of the summit say there's no communique, but look, we have a new substantive
06:19 inclusion of the global south of the African continent, of the African Union in the G20. And
06:25 that is a major diplomatic victory. Tristan Naylor talking to us there just ahead of the G20
06:31 in New Delhi. Thanks very much indeed. Thank you.