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00:00 In the past several weeks, China has brokered Saudi Arabian peace talks with Yemen and Iran,
00:04 reaffirmed its ties with Russia, hosted the French president of Iran for discussions,
00:07 and encircled Taiwan in a massive three-day military exercise.
00:11 While these actions shouldn't be dismissed, the media were quick to talk about how this
00:14 signaled the end of the dollar as a global reserve currency and ended up sparking a
00:17 de-dollarization frenzy. While it might make more exciting content, the idea that the dollar will
00:21 be replaced by the Chinese Yuan or any equivalent commodity-backed BRICS currency anytime soon is
00:26 ambitious to say the least. It's important to remember that the Yuan has still circulated
00:30 less than the Swiss franc globally despite the franc being issued by a country with just 8 million
00:34 people. Furthermore, just until a week ago, the most used currency in Russia was the dollar,
00:38 more than a year after they invaded Ukraine and gained the title for the most sanctioned country
00:42 on earth. To cut to the point, yes, de-dollarization is trending up, but it doesn't look like the
00:46 dollar will get replaced anytime soon without something substantial happening, like a default.
00:49 Which is something looking increasingly likely. Despite China making daily headlines,
00:53 the United States has also been busy. After all, the US isn't just going to sit back and let its
00:57 empire get chipped away at. In recent weeks, the US has established several new military bases in
01:01 the Philippines, made multiple high-profile visits to Taiwan, and even expanded trade ties in Africa.
01:06 Despite all these moves, one specific policy change arguably has the most potential.
01:10 Back in November of last year, the US quietly allowed five oil companies to resume operations
01:14 in Venezuela on a small scale. These include Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes,
01:19 and Weatherford. While this didn't get a lot of publicity at the time, the reason that this is
01:23 such a big deal is that Venezuela has the most proven oil reserves of any country on earth.
01:27 However, it's barely produced any since 2017 due to sanctions. Despite the sanctions,
01:31 with elevated oil prices, China pushing more into the Middle East every day, and the dollar under
01:35 more pressure than ever, there are many reasons why the US would want to reopen trade ties with
01:39 a country like Venezuela. And furthermore, contingent on if the President of Venezuela,
01:42 Maduro, doesn't commit any further human rights abuses, more sanctions on Venezuela could be
01:46 lifted in the coming months. Over time, not only would this shift global oil production firmly
01:50 into the Americas and reaffirm the dollar as a global reserve currency, but it would be a massive
01:54 opportunity for the five companies permitted to produce and export oil out of the country.
01:58 Chevron in particular has made the most progress in the nation, exporting over 100,000 barrels of
02:03 oil a day in February alone. While this still only represents a fraction of the total oil production,
02:07 which stands at about 1.7 million barrels a day, this number could increase substantially over
02:11 time. Given the very speculative nature of the circumstances, we've identified three primary
02:16 data sets that we'll be watching for activity from the five companies resuming operations.
02:20 These include corporate jet flight activity to Venezuela by company executives, corporate
02:24 lobbying activity by these companies that mention the words such as trade, sanctions, and Venezuela.
02:28 And lastly, any stock purchases of these companies by politicians, specifically those who sit on energy
02:33 or trade committees, because let's face it, if anyone knows about a new energy or trade policy
02:37 regarding Venezuela, it'll be them.