اقتصاد لبنان.. توقعات متشائمة ومخاطر متزايدة
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00:00 The Lebanese economy is still struggling with the situation in Egypt.
00:06 Doubts are growing about the extent of Lebanon's ability to fulfill its commitments, especially with the foreign currency.
00:13 The S&P, the head of the rating agencies, is returning to us to keep the Lebanese rating,
00:19 to be reliable on what it is, and to grant the rating related to foreign currency debts,
00:25 as it is, and to give a negative future perspective.
00:30 As for the local currency, the rating came within the framework of the jonka or the kurda.
00:35 We follow your opinion on what the agency means by that Lebanon, if it decides not to pay its debts,
00:41 it is of course, with an automatic choice and without compulsion,
00:46 meaning that Lebanon will offer, or will come to specify its alternatives in exchange for paying these debts.
00:54 So, it may buy its commitments or commitments before paying these debts.
01:01 The S&P says that the rating of foreign currency is pre-S&D,
01:06 and it is a choice to choose from the S&D with a negative future perspective.
01:13 How is it a choice?
01:14 That is, if it finds that Lebanon has commitments, it will buy what it needs,
01:19 whether it is goods and others, in exchange for paying its debts.
01:22 The situation will continue, according to the agency, in the restriction of commitments to foreign currency.
01:27 In March 2020, there was a suspension of the payment of Euro bonds,
01:31 and it was the first restriction for the government in Lebanon,
01:34 despite the fact that the Euro bonds, specifically,
01:37 which the state issued outside its borders,
01:41 was the first commitment to it, and then it was restricted after that.
01:46 The subsequent political crises are still the main reason for the deteriorating situation in Lebanon.
01:53 The divided political environment has a limited ability to legislate,
01:57 of course, with the existence of a government that only spends money and delays in appointing key officials,
02:02 especially when it comes to making strategic decisions.
02:05 The problems of banks and currency in Lebanon are as follows.
02:08 The official price of the currency is, of course, the dollar.
02:11 The pound is equivalent to 15,000 pounds,
02:14 but the exchange rate, which is said to be under the supervision of the exchange rate agencies,
02:20 is 85,000 pounds for the dollar,
02:22 and the exchange rate in the market is, of course, 89,000 pounds until the first week of August.
02:27 This means that the market has not yet found a solution to the issue of a unified exchange rate for the currency.
02:32 The difficulty of the reconstruction of the Egyptian sector is as follows.
02:35 The debt was paid back in June 2023, in exchange for its level in 2017.
02:42 It now amounts to 96 billion dollars,
02:45 despite the government's attempt in 2019 to limit the Lebanese citizen's ability to withdraw deposits,
02:51 especially foreign currency.
02:53 But what about Lebanon's economic expectations?
02:55 They are not the same.
02:56 The economy is not in a state of decline.
02:58 It is not at its lowest levels in 2021.
03:01 The income has improved by 1.2 or 5 percent,
03:05 but it will return to the lower range.
03:08 The activity will improve to 13 points until 2026.
03:12 The government debt will reach 334 percent.
03:16 The S&P is expected to reach more than 500 percent.
03:20 The inflation and consumer prices indicators are expected to decline.
03:24 The inflation levels are currently at 250 percent.
03:28 The Lebanese pound exchange rate, as we mentioned,
03:31 will reach 38,000 in 2022.
03:36 The local market may reach 103,000.
03:39 The Lebanese currency exchange rate is also increasing.
03:43 This is the situation in Lebanon today.
03:46 Lebanon's ability to pay its debts is still weak,
03:49 especially if the option is to buy the country's commitments
03:55 before it makes commitments.