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00:00 Hey, excited about new opportunities.
00:03 That's the way I'm gonna address this
00:05 because of course we've got to now a pullback.
00:08 We've been talking about it more being a correction here.
00:11 Is that how you see the market?
00:13 - I look back five to 10 years.
00:16 So when every new month starts,
00:18 these are old habits from my commodity futures trading days.
00:22 You know, you gotta know what corn would do,
00:24 planting, harvesting, you know, all that stuff.
00:27 And while I don't necessarily think S&P and dollar
00:31 and so forth are super sensitive to these seasonals,
00:35 if you look at August, I mean,
00:37 we should take a Dramamine at the end or 10
00:39 at the end of July, because August nature is just one
00:44 that up and down, up and down, it defines a range
00:47 and it chops up like a Ginsu knife.
00:49 So overall, I'm a little bit bullish still
00:53 because we saw that CPI data,
00:55 keep expectations for the Fed not to hike
00:58 at least in September.
01:00 So I'm a little bit bullish, but it's gonna be a rough ride.
01:02 - Yeah, it's just not gonna be as easy
01:04 as maybe the first half was,
01:05 but I still stay in the camp, like I'm not full bearish here.
01:09 I think we just need a correction
01:10 and I've still got a shopping list going.
01:12 And I think as you get down and some of these stocks
01:15 come down to more reasonable valuations here,
01:17 I think you strike, I think you have your shopping list,
01:20 but I don't think it's gonna be like the first half
01:22 where we're up, you know, 30% on the NASDAQ
01:24 and we're just talking another 30% in the second half.
01:26 I mean, stocks just don't go straight up normally.
01:30 - They don't unless, you know, Powell's S&P targets public,
01:33 you know, until he's telling us what that is.
01:36 But I have a hard time, you know,
01:38 so I think correction's a great word, right?
01:40 So mean reversion, correction.
01:42 To me, where is the previous floor?
01:45 Where are volume levels sitting?
01:47 Where folks have already put their bets in?
01:51 You know, I don't know that we see,
01:54 I'm anything cataclysmic.
01:55 I'm not that bearish.
01:56 Am I looking for something down at the 200 exponential
01:59 like we did say September, October of last year,
02:02 even March of this,
02:04 am I looking for anything that quite panic-filled?
02:07 But to your point, shopping, I would love to go shopping.
02:11 - What is on your shopping list here?
02:13 Do you have some stocks on your shopping list
02:15 that you're looking at? - Boring things, yeah.
02:16 Boring things.
02:17 So my shopping list- - What do you got?
02:18 What do you got?
02:19 - I got, I mean, it's super boring.
02:20 It's definitely usually a weekly timeframe
02:23 or a daily, and it's, when can I buy the SPY?
02:27 When can I buy the DIA?
02:28 Where can I jump into healthcare, Staples, Coke, Walmart?
02:33 It's really, really boring.
02:34 I'm not looking for the next up and comer.
02:37 I'm looking for things.
02:39 I remember, you know, guys, we're talking about 2000.
02:41 I remember telling my mom,
02:43 "Mom, I'm gonna put this in your portfolio."
02:46 She let me start managing money very early
02:48 because she saw I had a knack for it.
02:49 So mind you, you know, your kid's telling you,
02:52 "There's this book company."
02:53 And we're talking about 2000.
02:54 Let's start scooping that up.
02:56 Let's start buying things like that.
02:58 And so I look at her portfolio,
03:00 and I think if you take that willingness to wait six months,
03:03 sometimes a year for those moves,
03:06 shopping as you're saying,
03:07 and when everyone else is panicking,
03:09 you're picking up things in Q1 of 2019, Q1 of 2020,
03:13 because your time horizon is not measured in hours
03:16 or days or weeks, but rather years.
03:18 My mom's cost basis in some of these things are ridiculous
03:21 because that's the process that we did.
03:24 So I'm just trying to enact that now.
03:26 It's harder now.
03:27 It's harder now.
03:28 But that 200 on a weekly, that 200 on daily, it's gold.
03:32 It's easy. - Where does that come in?
03:35 So let's just take it.
03:36 And obviously, you know, we've been extended here
03:38 on the 200 Money Mitch Talks,
03:40 but they're moving out just for a while.
03:41 Me and Joel aren't huge fans, but I can respect, you know,
03:43 that you're coming into an area
03:44 where a lot of other traders are looking at it.
03:46 Where does that come in?
03:49 You know, maybe you can show it.
03:50 Can you show your charts?
03:51 - Yeah, oh yeah, I'll show you the, sure.
03:54 I'm looking at the S&P right now, but yeah, let's do it.
03:57 They're kind of loud and crazy.
03:58 So I always hesitate for people to look directly at them.
04:02 You might want to look with your eyes.
04:04 - I know how it is, Raggy.
04:05 I have a little show button where I take off
04:09 all the levels and stuff,
04:11 'cause people just, sometimes they get confused.
04:13 But hey, here's the gold for you guys.
04:15 Let's take a look.
04:16 - This is the S&P futures, right?
04:18 So if I'm looking at S&P futures, and by the way,
04:21 all I have on this chart,
04:22 I know it's everything's color-coded,
04:24 'cause I cannot see, and I have cataracts.
04:26 And everything's gotta be like Skittles, okay?
04:29 So if you wanna look at that. - I like it, I like it.
04:32 - I've got an anchored VWAP on here.
04:34 That's the teal line.
04:35 The dots are the 200.
04:37 Notice how the 200 exponential and the anchored VWAP
04:40 are just hanging out with each other.
04:42 And then all I'm looking for is
04:44 when we get down to a 200 exponential.
04:46 So here's your S&P, here's March.
04:48 You know, I think if you look at SPY,
04:50 it's gonna look very similar.
04:52 I like looking at the S&P futures for the SPY,
04:54 but there it is.
04:55 When I see those white lines or an anchored VWAP
04:58 to the first trading day of the year, I get to work.
05:00 And it might only happen a handful of times a year,
05:03 but I'm thinking about a year, two, three, holding,
05:07 I don't care, right?
05:08 I mean, XLK, I mentioned last October.
05:11 So anyways, I don't wanna get y'all,
05:13 that was weekly, by the way.
05:14 So I don't wanna get all obnoxious with these screens,
05:16 but yeah, that's what I'll look for.
05:19 And it doesn't have to be all the noise
05:20 that I've got there, but at 200 is magical.