Benzinga's Premarket Prep is the #1 go-to source for everything you need to know before the market opens! Join our expert hosts as they break down the latest market trends, analyze key indicators, and provide actionable insights to help you navigate the trading day ahead.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00So here's the big picture for you guys. I think you can now see this
00:04Yep. Yeah, perfect. So yesterday despite the volatility we saw in the market
00:10We've done something we haven't done very often, which is we now put two price targets out there for the market
00:16We have just at our 2024 number to 6100. We were 5800 and
00:22We also laid out a 2025 target of 6600
00:26So about 12% higher from where we're trading at just on Tuesday Wednesday
00:31So from our perspective, I think what a lot of people are missing and how they should be trading this and I know you're talking
00:37More short-term, but if you're talking about shorter term trading
00:40You really want to put it into the context of the longer term trend of the market and the longer term trend of the market
00:46is
00:47You are in the early
00:50Part of the third year of a bull market off of those October 22 lows
00:55And I think what investors and traders now have to do is sort of size up the opportunity from here
01:01There's a lot of negativity. There's a lot of pessimism out there, but from all the work that we have done
01:07I will just tell you that this bull market is only five hundred and seven trading days old and
01:13The typical bull market has lasted the median has been about nine hundred and seventy nine days
01:20So again, if you put this into kind of a little spaghetti looking chart that looks like this
01:24I mean we are still relatively new in the big-picture side of things and I'll just tell you from a
01:31pessimism standpoint
01:32Keep hearing a lot of negativity like oh this market can't work and and this with the economy and this with jobs and everything else
01:40I just remind everybody that the old Wall Street adage
01:43Bull markets climb a wall of worry and they usually are born on pessimism and they die on euphoria
01:51There's another historic quote
01:53And at this point in time, there is no euphoria
01:56I've asked every institutional investor that I know since publishing this piece and again, nobody's like yeah, we're not in euphoria
02:04We're nowhere close to euphoria. And then you break down the technical indicators and
02:09Our new highs indicators are 40-week. They all still remain constructive and then this gentleman that sits behind me
02:16Mr. Ralph Acapulco on the wall
02:19Instead of having you know, the elf on the shelf. We got Ralph on the wall
02:24But what the Ralph on the shelf you could have that
02:29What it ultimately comes down to though is the only way to change this pessimism is through new highs
02:36That's the only way to change it and that's from a veteran who's done this for a very very long time
02:41And when you come down and you look at right now
02:44What it looks like this is sort of your cumulative record thinking about the number of new highs and the new highs are gonna lead
02:51the more new highs and
02:52Then Joel you're very focused on election. I know you are and what I'll tell you is
02:58win or lose depending on
03:01You know Republicans Democrats or anything else what the mix is any of these things
03:06Let's just boil it down to history and history will tell you that
03:11Since every election since basically
03:141928 your median return
03:17Election day to year end has been one point seven eight percent
03:22Okay, one point seven eight percent positive and I'll also tell you that
03:27If it's a Republican win, you're typically higher
03:3167% of the time with a median return at three point nine five percent. It was a Democratic win again
03:37This is just math your higher fifty four percent of the time with a median return of zero point five seven percent
03:43Take it one step further between the S&P. That's what I was calculating and do the same math on the Russell 2000
03:5182% of the time you see the Russell
03:532000 outperformed the S&P 500 in that window of time
03:57So as traders are looking to set up their stuff coming into that election. I think you want to be leaning long
04:03not
04:05short
04:06Okay, because history says that in that window of time
04:11markets typically go higher