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00:00So here's the big picture for you guys. I think you can now see this
00:04Yep. Yeah, perfect. So yesterday despite the volatility we saw in the market
00:10We've done something we haven't done very often, which is we now put two price targets out there for the market
00:16We have just at our 2024 number to 6100. We were 5800 and
00:22We also laid out a 2025 target of 6600
00:26So about 12% higher from where we're trading at just on Tuesday Wednesday
00:31So from our perspective, I think what a lot of people are missing and how they should be trading this and I know you're talking
00:37More short-term, but if you're talking about shorter term trading
00:40You really want to put it into the context of the longer term trend of the market and the longer term trend of the market
00:46is
00:47You are in the early
00:50Part of the third year of a bull market off of those October 22 lows
00:55And I think what investors and traders now have to do is sort of size up the opportunity from here
01:01There's a lot of negativity. There's a lot of pessimism out there, but from all the work that we have done
01:07I will just tell you that this bull market is only five hundred and seven trading days old and
01:13The typical bull market has lasted the median has been about nine hundred and seventy nine days
01:20So again, if you put this into kind of a little spaghetti looking chart that looks like this
01:24I mean we are still relatively new in the big-picture side of things and I'll just tell you from a
01:31pessimism standpoint
01:32Keep hearing a lot of negativity like oh this market can't work and and this with the economy and this with jobs and everything else
01:40I just remind everybody that the old Wall Street adage
01:43Bull markets climb a wall of worry and they usually are born on pessimism and they die on euphoria
01:51There's another historic quote
01:53And at this point in time, there is no euphoria
01:56I've asked every institutional investor that I know since publishing this piece and again, nobody's like yeah, we're not in euphoria
02:04We're nowhere close to euphoria. And then you break down the technical indicators and
02:09Our new highs indicators are 40-week. They all still remain constructive and then this gentleman that sits behind me
02:16Mr. Ralph Acapulco on the wall
02:19Instead of having you know, the elf on the shelf. We got Ralph on the wall
02:24But what the Ralph on the shelf you could have that
02:29What it ultimately comes down to though is the only way to change this pessimism is through new highs
02:36That's the only way to change it and that's from a veteran who's done this for a very very long time
02:41And when you come down and you look at right now
02:44What it looks like this is sort of your cumulative record thinking about the number of new highs and the new highs are gonna lead
02:51the more new highs and
02:52Then Joel you're very focused on election. I know you are and what I'll tell you is
02:58win or lose depending on
03:01You know Republicans Democrats or anything else what the mix is any of these things
03:06Let's just boil it down to history and history will tell you that
03:11Since every election since basically
03:141928 your median return
03:17Election day to year end has been one point seven eight percent
03:22Okay, one point seven eight percent positive and I'll also tell you that
03:27If it's a Republican win, you're typically higher
03:3167% of the time with a median return at three point nine five percent. It was a Democratic win again
03:37This is just math your higher fifty four percent of the time with a median return of zero point five seven percent
03:43Take it one step further between the S&P. That's what I was calculating and do the same math on the Russell 2000
03:5182% of the time you see the Russell
03:532000 outperformed the S&P 500 in that window of time
03:57So as traders are looking to set up their stuff coming into that election. I think you want to be leaning long
04:03not
04:05short
04:06Okay, because history says that in that window of time
04:11markets typically go higher