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00:00Yeah, so we were talking about this right before you came on and this hit like this
00:04you know TLT is down basically 10% in the last month which is an incredible
00:08sell-off for you know an investment vehicle that's somewhat stable and that
00:12means long-term rates are climbing and I don't think anybody had this on their
00:15bingo card except on one person Jim Tazzoni was on our show but I mean you
00:19think like when the Fed is starting to lower rates here that the TLT would
00:23start to track higher and the exact opposite has happened the Fed starts
00:26lowering rates and the TLT starts going lower and the long and starts going
00:29higher here so would you be a buyer of the TLT maybe on this dip because it's a
00:34nice dip we've had yeah rates are eventually gonna go lower eventually
00:39correct yes I I would be I mean that has been my call to the institutional world
00:44which has been that that overhead resistance here is going to be very
00:48difficult to go through and at the end of the day you're still very much in a
00:51downtrend and it's always interesting that when you get this narrative popping
00:55up from a lot of people that all rates are going higher the Feds made a mistake
00:59etc etc etc that's probably more often than not people trying to kind of throw
01:04their own narrative out there but we all know and listeners all know if you come
01:09back and sort of ground this with the charts you know that that's gonna be a
01:12very difficult level to go through and you should probably wait to see if that
01:17trend changes because then there's real meaning but right now you would do this
01:21in the context of trading as a relief rally within the context of a longer
01:26term downtrend