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00:00 More on this story, we're joined by Ulf Lessing, an author and head of the Sahel program at
00:04 the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.
00:07 Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.
00:09 So the West has largely condemned this military coup, but for countries with a military presence
00:14 inside of Niger, including the US and France, it's a bit more complicated.
00:19 They can't just cut off relations completely, can they?
00:22 Yeah, I mean, every effort is being made to restore Mr. Basu in power.
00:28 But I mean, anyway, he was under pressure because he was seen being too close, too cozy
00:33 with France, with the European Union, with also the Americans.
00:37 And even if now by pressure, you know, I mean, he will be restored to power.
00:43 I'm not sure he can actually return this because his credibility has been really damaged.
00:48 He's been held now for four days by his own guards, hostage, without a single army or
00:54 police unit coming to his rescue.
00:56 So while these efforts to pressure him, you know, cutting aid, you know, sanctions, threats,
01:02 you know, might work, I mean, he would probably return in a very weakened state.
01:07 Well, Niger is a country you're familiar with.
01:10 Can you just describe what the security situation is like in the country at the moment?
01:15 Yeah, it's relatively calm, but it's always in Niger an illusion.
01:21 It's one of the poorest countries of the world, where the government doesn't really exist
01:26 outside the main capital, and maybe Agadez is the second city.
01:30 But otherwise it's a very weak state, and it doesn't take much to overthrow a government.
01:37 That would be the other question.
01:39 If now Mr. Basu gets reinstalled by, you know, international pressure or, you know, ECOWAS,
01:45 can he stay in power?
01:46 But it's not very difficult to overthrow a president in Niger, where you have very weak
01:52 institutions.
01:54 You mentioned poverty.
01:55 What about the humanitarian situation in Niger?
01:57 What is life like for everyday people, and how has that played into the events of this
02:02 week?
02:03 Yeah, I mean, Niger depends heavily on foreign aid, budget support.
02:08 There's a huge operation from all Western donors.
02:12 You find them there.
02:14 It's one of the poorest countries at the bottom of every development index.
02:19 And if all these Westerners or other Arab or other donors pull out, the situation will
02:28 be more desperate.
02:30 Most people, they've long given up on understanding politics.
02:33 They're just trying to make ends meet.
02:36 So in your opinion, what is next here for Niger?
02:39 Where do you see this going?
02:40 I don't know.
02:42 The longer this coup takes place, I mean, the more difficult it will be to remove, let
02:49 alone because Mr. Bazoum is now so weak.
02:51 And even this, you know, suspension of aid or, you know, threats by ECOWAS didn't impress
02:57 other coup leaders, like in Burkina Faso and Mali.
03:00 So I fear there will be more instability.
03:05 You know, Niger has been also a major partner of Europe to stop migration to Libya and to
03:11 Europe.
03:12 I mean, Niger lies on the main migration route.
03:16 So if there's continued instability, there will be probably more migration and more instability,
03:23 which eventually will affect the whole Sahel.
03:25 OK, we'll have to leave it there.
03:27 Ouf Lessling, author and head of the Sahel Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation
03:31 in Mali.
03:32 Thanks so much for joining us here on France 24.
03:34 Well, thank you.