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00:00 We're going to talk now on the programme to the head of the Sahel programme at the Conrad
00:03 Adrenal Foundation in Bamako, Bali, Ulf Leising, who joins us.
00:08 Thanks very much for being with us on the programme.
00:10 We heard then from ECOWAS threatening potential military action if the junta doesn't cede
00:16 power in a week.
00:18 I mean, do you think there's any way the junta might cede power?
00:20 And assuming not, does ECOWAS really have the military means to have any impact?
00:24 I mean, I'm not sure ECOWAS has the military means.
00:30 They've intervened in Gambia in 2017, but then they were invited by the government there.
00:34 The problem here in Niger is that President Basum is basically isolated.
00:38 No army unit has come to his rescue.
00:41 He's been detained by his presidential guard.
00:44 So I'm rather sceptical that ECOWAS is able to muster kind of a military operation that
00:52 would be a full-blown war, which nobody wants.
00:55 It seems a strange thing to threaten if you've got no intention of following it through,
01:01 though.
01:02 Yeah, I think the stakes are so high because Niger is so central for the European Union,
01:07 France, United States, this so-called pillar of stability anchor in the Sahel, that they
01:15 hope to maximise pressure, to see reason with them.
01:20 But the problem, as we have seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, if you pile too much pressure
01:27 on some kind of butchers, they might even get more defiant to seize power.
01:33 And we've seen as well in Djerisdebi there.
01:35 Do you think he may be able to have any kind of impact or any other intermediary may be
01:40 able to help?
01:41 Well, I mean, he's one of the last pro-Western, pro-France allies in the Sahel, and he also
01:47 has good ties to Niger.
01:50 I guess it's a way to sound out whether he can talk to the butchers, because Niger is
01:56 really going to stand to lose so much.
01:58 I mean, it's a major recipient of development aid, military programs, and the budget really
02:03 depends on various aid from Western countries.
02:07 So if this is all cut off, like France and European Union say over the weekend, then,
02:12 you know, many people are going to suffer.
02:14 So in that way, I guess, maybe he's trying to, you know, make a last minute attempt to
02:20 resolve the situation or, you know, talk to the butchers to see reason.
02:24 As you say, aid already cut off.
02:27 Another possibility, I suppose, is to go even further and start imposing sanctions from
02:32 ECOWAS, from the EU, from the US.
02:34 Do you think that could have any effect?
02:37 I mean, it will impact people's lives, that is for sure.
02:40 I've seen it myself last year in Mali when ECOWAS imposed sanctions here.
02:45 People living in coastal countries like Cote d'Ivoire can't easily send money home, you
02:50 know, to Niger.
02:53 But I mean, the problem is, you know, if you have a, you know, butchers who are basically
02:57 cornered, you know, and, you know, being, piling maximum pressure on them, I'm not so
03:03 sure they're going to be impressed.
03:04 They might try to play even more the nationalist card by, you know, sending out protesters
03:10 with Russian flags and shouting Putin.
03:13 So it's impossible to say what's going to happen.
03:16 But, you know, we will see more tensions this week in Niger, I'm sure.
03:21 And what does it mean for public opinion?
03:22 I mean, as you say, you've seen it in Mali.
03:24 If there are sanctions and it potentially pushes people further into poverty, presumably
03:29 that doesn't help either.
03:30 No.
03:31 I mean, it was interesting to see in Mali last year, actually, that really these sanctions
03:35 by ECOWAS imposed after they delayed the elections and invited the Russians, the Wagner fighters,
03:42 you know, the government managed to use these, you know, the sanctions to mobilize against
03:47 France, saying, look, ECOWAS is a tool by France.
03:51 They imposed these sanctions against us.
03:53 And the government, which was really struggling at the time when the sanctions were, you know,
03:59 imposed, really, really got popular.
04:00 They started this major nationalist wave, you know, with thousands of people every day
04:05 in the street in Bamako.
04:06 So I don't know about Niger, but I mean, there is a risk that they put you in their corner.
04:12 They tried the same method.
04:14 And all this time, of course, Russian influence inevitably really deepening in the region.
04:20 How worrying do you see that?
04:24 Niger is not a classic Russia, you know, client state.
04:27 There's not even a Russian embassy in Niger.
04:30 And I'm sure, you know, we've seen these fake news campaigns, social media.
04:35 Yes, there's already during the coup we've seen how they're trying to push things towards,
04:42 you know, against Bassem and helping the butchers.
04:45 But, you know, Wagner arriving there, I'm not sure.
04:48 Also, keep in mind, Russia doesn't do anything for free.
04:51 They want something in return, like we've seen in the Central African Republic, gold,
04:55 diamonds or cash like in Mali.
04:58 So Niger doesn't have money to afford Wagner.
05:01 I think there's not much intuited at these fears.
05:05 And what about the migration reissue?
05:07 I mean, do you think there could be consequences as well for the European Union?
05:11 I mean, Niger is on the main route, isn't it, to Libya?
05:14 And if the West loses its influence there, could that exacerbate the problem?
05:18 Yeah, definitely.
05:19 And that's really where the European Union is very, very vulnerable.
05:22 I mean, they're talking tough now about suspending aid, development, military cooperation.
05:27 But if the new butchers, if they say they're going to reopen this central route through
05:33 the Sahel to Libya from Sub-Saharan Africa, they might be less tough, the Europeans, because
05:40 that's really their weak spot.
05:42 All these agreements the European Union is now signing or negotiating, like with Tunis,
05:47 Tunisia to, you know, curb migration, don't make much sense.
05:51 Are not very effective if, you know, if gates are opened again on the, you know, migration
05:57 route from Niger, which the previous government, you know, really, you know, stopped.
06:02 And very little the European Union could do about it, presumably.
06:05 Yeah, that's why I think the Europeans, they're trying now to maximize pressure to that these
06:10 butchers, you know, step down again and Bazaarum returns or find another solution.
06:16 But afterwards, they have no option but to cooperate with Niger.
06:20 It's just so central and they've invested so much, like hundreds of millions of euros
06:25 and development aid and, you know, military corporations.
06:29 They started constructing army barracks, sending shipment.
06:31 I mean, it's hard to see they, you know, stop halfway through and abandon anything.
06:37 And then, of course, they need the Nigerians to stop migration, which is the top domestic
06:42 policy issue in the European Union at the moment.
06:46 Good to talk to you on the programme today.
06:47 Thanks very much for joining us.
06:49 Saul Fleissing, who's head of the Sahel programme at the Conrad Adenauer Foundation in Bamako,
06:54 Mali.
06:55 Thanks.