🚨 Putin REJECTS US Ultimatum on Ukraine – Witkoff: "US Must Accept Moscow’s Terms" | Kellogg Backs Starmer 🇷🇺⚡ | Forbidden News - video Dailymotion

Forbidden News

Geopolitical SHOWDOWN: Putin flatly refuses Washington’s demands on Ukraine as analyst Mark Witkoff declares: "The US has NO choice but to accept Russia’s terms!" Meanwhile, ex-Trump advisor Keith Kellogg endorses Starmer—signaling a major Western policy shift? 🌍🔥  🔴 Key Points: ✅ Putin’s defiance – Moscow won’t back down, despite US/NATO pressure. ✅ Witkoff’s warning – "Washington’s ultimatums are FAILING—time to negotiate!" ✅ Kellogg’s surprise move – Backing Keir Starmer hints at US-UK realignment under Labour. ✅ Mercouris’ analysis – Is the West finally recognizing reality in Ukraine?  ⚠️ Is the tide turning? Or is this just another phase of the conflict? Sound off! 👇 #RussiaWins #Putin #UkraineWar #Russia #USUltimatum #Geopolitics #AlexanderMercouris #NATO #Witkoff #Kellogg #Starmer #LabourUK #Diplomacy #WarEndgame #MoscowWins #WesternFailure #PeaceDeal #NoMoreWar #GlobalShift #Realpolitik #UkraineCrisis

Transcript

00:00:00Good day. Today is Saturday 12th April 2025 and briefly there was continued turbulence yesterday

00:00:09in the financial markets. There was a resumed selling of treasury bonds and a rise in treasury

00:00:18yields. The US Federal Reserve Board, or at least a member of it, came forward and said that the Fed

00:00:26was ready to do whatever it takes to maintain stability in the US financial system. Kind of

00:00:32statements that central banks tend to make at times of stress in the financial system and there

00:00:41continue to be strong statements made by the United States about China and about China by the United

00:00:48States, including publication by a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman of a video of the late Chinese

00:00:59chairman Mao Zedong making a speech stating that China would remain strong and united and defiant

00:01:09against the United States, which from the context appears to have been made at some point during the

00:01:17Korean War after President Eisenhower's election victory. Anyway, I'm not going to discuss the events

00:01:28in the tariff wars. There's a huge amount of literature and discussions about this. Perhaps the most

00:01:37interesting fact is that there's been a heavy selling of the dollar over the last few days. The

00:01:48internationally weighted value of the dollar has fallen. There are all sorts of articles now, including one

00:01:57in The Guardian by the former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown talking about, again talking about the end of

00:02:05the globalisation of the globalisation, of the unipolar system, of the return of great power politics, all of those things.

00:02:14Matters which, if I may be so bold as to say, Alex Cristoforo and I have been discussing on the Duran for several months,

00:02:24since President Trump's inauguration, in fact. And it's interesting to see how those comments, which

00:02:32which maybe when we originally made them seemed a little, shall we say, ahead of events, have now

00:02:43rapidly become mainstream. I even see now increasing discussions and debates about the return of spheres of

00:02:52influence and that sort of thing. But I'm going to devote again much of my programme today to the conflict in

00:03:00Ukraine, because it seems to me that for all that is going on in the financial markets and the trading system,

00:03:08it is in many respects the conflict in Ukraine that remains the single driving factor that is the catalyst

00:03:16for many of these changes. I want to stress it is not the cause of these changes. The cause has been the

00:03:25fundamental change in the economic balance of power that has taken place over the last 20 years with the

00:03:35revival of Russia and the massive growth of China. These have been the major factors in creating the kind of

00:03:47tensions and conflicts we have seen. But it is the Ukraine war that has both crystallised the change

00:03:59and sped it forward. It has brought home to the United States, again, the limits of its power, military and

00:04:07economic. And it has also created tensions between the United States and its European allies, which had not

00:04:15existed at any time before, at least not on the current scale since the creation of NATO back in the 1940s.

00:04:25And it has also forced the United States to reconsider its geopolitical position and whether in fact it could

00:04:33continue in the way that it had been going during the previous period leading up to the end of the Biden

00:04:45era. Anyway, enough of that. Let's talk about what's going on at the moment in the conflict in Ukraine.

00:04:51Now, over the last couple of days, we're getting increasingly contradictory signals about where the

00:04:58United States is going. First of all, there are signs that continue to be signs of a gradual improvement

00:05:08in Russian-American relations. On the 10th of April, for example, delegations from the United States and from

00:05:18Russia met in Istanbul to discuss the re-establishment of proper diplomatic contacts between those two

00:05:29countries. And the communication that each country, the United States and Russia published after that

00:05:38meeting in Istanbul suggests that that meeting went well. I'll read the press release that the Russians have

00:05:47published. As always, it is much more detailed than the American press release. And it perhaps gives us a good

00:05:54sense of the mood and atmosphere in those discussions. It reads as follows. April 10th marked a round of

00:06:05Russian-American expert consultations in Istanbul aimed at normalizing the operations of the diplomatic

00:06:13missions of both countries and addressing accumulated bilateral irritants. The delegations led by Russian

00:06:21Russian ambassador to the United States, Alexander Darchev, and deputy assistant secretary of state,

00:06:27Sonata Kulta, exchange diplomatic notes to formalize agreed commitments. These commitments are designed to

00:06:36facilitate unimpeded banking and financial services for Russian and American diplomatic missions in addition to

00:06:45ensuring the fulfillment of the Russian Federation's contributions to the budget of the United Nations and other

00:06:53international organizations. In the context of the issue raised by the Russian side regarding the return of

00:07:01six diplomatic real estate properties confiscated by the United States authorities and lawfully owned by the

00:07:09Russian Federation. The parties agreed to develop a roadmap. Ambassador Darchev emphasized the importance of

00:07:18urgent practical measures of this regard, including immediate access for Russian representatives to inspect these

00:07:26premises and assess incurred damage. Discussions also continued on easing visa processing and travel

00:07:34regulations for diplomatic staff within the host countries. The Russian ambassador pressed for accelerated

00:07:41progress in resolving pivotal issues to bolster mutual trust and expand bilateral business and social ties,

00:07:50such as resuming direct air flights. Following the consultations, the parties resolved to promptly

00:07:58refine the proposals tabled. The objective remains to achieve mutually acceptable solutions ahead of the next round,

00:08:06the timing of which is currently under coordination. So that is a positive readout of the meeting.

00:08:16It suggests that significant progress has been made on easing visa restrictions so that Russian and American

00:08:26officials can travel to each other countries can travel to each other's countries unimpeded,

00:08:30that there will be less difficulty now in restaffing the embassies in Washington and Moscow that are down to

00:08:40skeleton levels. More importantly still, not only are the Russians going to allow transfers of funds from the United States to

00:08:50their embassy to the American embassy to the American embassy in Moscow through the Russian banking system, but the Americans are taking some kind of steps.

00:08:58And it's interesting to know what form these steps are taking to make it possible for the Russians to transfer funds,

00:09:07not just to their embassy in Washington and their diplomatic mission in New York,

00:09:16but to enable the Russians to make payments to the United Nations and to other international bodies,

00:09:24of which Russia is a member and for which it has membership dues, which are payable in the United States.

00:09:33Now that must mean that some mechanism to transfer funds from the United States,

00:09:41rather from Russia to the United States, has been agreed. Bear in mind that Russian banks remain mostly

00:09:50disconnected from the SWIFT interbank payment system. Some mechanism to transfer payments from Russia to the

00:09:59United States, separate and independent of SWIFT, is presumably being set up. One wonders exactly what form it takes.

00:10:13Are we back to the old world system of premissory notes and checks and things of that kind,

00:10:20or is something more sophisticated, some kind of block-based, some kind of new system based on blockchain technology being created?

00:10:33I had a report about a week ago suggesting that the Americans and the Russians are indeed in some kind

00:10:43of discussions to try and create mechanisms via blockchain and perhaps digital currencies to make payment transfers.

00:10:54The Russians, by the way, are now well advanced in launching their digital ruble.

00:11:02It will apparently start to be used in international settlements sometime this summer.

00:11:09China, of course, is well ahead of the curve with everybody in that regard.

00:11:14The United States is also moving forward with its digital dollar systems. So could it be something of that kind?

00:11:22Now, that might, of course, extend beyond the issue of simple transfers of payments from Russia to the United States for payment of embassy salaries and embassy payments and that kind of thing and payments to the UN and other international agencies.

00:11:45It could provide vehicles for resumptions at some level of U.S.-Russia trade and, as I have floated previously, it might create mechanisms whereby Russian objections to re-entry into the Black Sea initiative.

00:12:09The grain deal could be addressed by providing mechanisms for payment for Russian food exports through the United States with digital payments maybe from the United States directly to Russia via maybe the U.S. Federal Reserve or something of that kind.

00:12:36And who knows? And also it might provide mechanisms, open ways for insurance companies in the United States also to provide insurance to Russian ships also involved in the food export trade.

00:12:53So it's an interesting point. So it's an interesting point. There's a lot of questions here. Maybe, more probably, it's simply a fairly limited mechanism that has been created.

00:13:04But who knows? It may be that it might evolve into something bigger.

00:13:09And we also have discussions. And this is quite interesting, actually. The Americans now seem to be taking seriously Russian demands that the six Russian government properties located in the United States,

00:13:31which the Russians claim, which the Russians claim correctly as it happens, safeguarded under international law, but which was seized by the U.S. authorities in the final weeks of the Obama administration as part of the wave of panic and anger and general hysteria connected with the Russiagate scandal.

00:13:59Anyway, the Russians are now saying that the Americans have at least agreed to discuss this issue about the return of these properties and to discuss some kind of creation of a roadmap to address the problem of the return of these properties.

00:14:20That will be a controversial issue in the United States, and I'm confident that there will be some people in Congress, including, as we know, various Republicans, hardline Republicans, who will not be happy if something to that effect does actually take place.

00:14:41So, overall, a positive meeting in Istanbul.

00:14:49But we're getting a host of other messages which point in the diametrically opposite direction.

00:14:58Now, a couple of days ago, Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's all-purpose envoy, he appears to be running an almost private foreign policy conducted by the president and Witkoff together,

00:15:17which appears to be circumventing the State Department and the official agencies of the American government.

00:15:24By the way, there's nothing unusual in this.

00:15:27This has happened in the past.

00:15:29As I discussed in previous programs, President Roosevelt, President Franklin Roosevelt, often used his friend Harry Hopkins to conduct diplomacy on his behalf with various other powers,

00:15:46mostly, mostly the Soviet Union during the Soviet Union during the Second World War, as it happens.

00:15:52Harry Hopkins having a kind of relationship to Roosevelt, not that different from the one that Witkoff has to Trump.

00:16:00And, of course, the great exemplar of private diplomacy was Richard Nixon, who conducted an awful lot of diplomacy, for example, with China, using his special envoy,

00:16:19who was, of course, his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger.

00:16:22I mean, Kissinger made secret visits to Beijing, where he met the Chinese leadership and prepared the ground for the rapprochement between China and the United States,

00:16:34leading to President Nixon's famous visit in 1972 to China, where, of course, he met Mao Zedong.

00:16:43Anyway, so this is not new.

00:16:47It's happened many times.

00:16:48Another president who turned to this kind of informal diplomacy was President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis,

00:17:00when his brother, Robert Kennedy, who was then the U.S. Attorney General, established a back channel with the Soviet ambassador in Washington,

00:17:11and Anatoly Dubrinin.

00:17:13I've discussed all of this in previous programmes.

00:17:16Anyway, Witkoff appears to be conducting, as I said, a multi-front foreign policy on the president's behalf.

00:17:27He's talking to the Russians.

00:17:31He's talking to the Iranians, as we will see shortly.

00:17:35He appears to be in some kind of contact with the Chinese as well, from what I can understand.

00:17:40But anyway, Witkoff has been meeting with Russian officials.

00:17:46He is the only member of what might be loosely called President Trump's team to have had actual meetings with President Putin.

00:17:58He's now had three.

00:17:59We'll come to all of that shortly.

00:18:02Anyway, Witkoff has been busy.

00:18:04A few weeks ago, about 10 days ago, he hosted in Washington, President Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, businessman, partly U.S. educated,

00:18:21who came to the United States.

00:18:24And he is, of course, the chairman of Russia's direct investment fund.

00:18:31He is essentially a businessman, though someone who has an official public position in Russia

00:18:40and whose job is to attract investment from foreign countries into Russia.

00:18:48And Dmitriev first met with Witkoff during that first American-Russian summit meeting in Saudi Arabia,

00:18:59which took place after Putin and Trump's first telephone conversation back in February.

00:19:06Then Witkoff met Dmitriev again when he went to Moscow on the 18th of March.

00:19:17Then he invited Dmitriev to Washington.

00:19:23Dmitriev came to Washington.

00:19:26Reuters now reveals that Witkoff intended to host Dmitriev in a private dinner

00:19:37at Witkoff's own private house, his own house, his own home, in New York.

00:19:46Apparently there were some people in the administration who were worried about that.

00:19:50So the dinner did take place, but it actually took place in the White House.

00:19:54The two men, Witkoff and Dmitriev, appear to have established a good relationship with each other.

00:20:03And perhaps here it's worth saying that Dmitriev, from his time in the United States, speaks fluent English.

00:20:12Well, Witkoff, somewhat unexpectedly, over the last few days, then flew to St. Petersburg,

00:20:20where he met Dmitriev again.

00:20:25And there was apparently another lengthy discussion between Dmitriev and Witkoff.

00:20:30Again, we don't have the full details.

00:20:34But then, subsequently, Witkoff yesterday had a meeting with no lesser person than President Putin himself.

00:20:44Now, unusually, and for the first time, the Kremlin has provided a very, very brief readout of this meeting.

00:20:57It's not even a readout.

00:20:58It's just a statement that the meeting actually took place.

00:21:02Putin is in St. Petersburg, incidentally, on a scheduled meeting.

00:21:22He's there to meet with the leaders of the Russian Navy and of the Russian shipbuilding industry.

00:21:32And he is there to have a discussion about future development of Russia's fleet.

00:21:41And, in fact, the Kremlin has provided a, well, lengthy, fairly lengthy record of some of the initial statements made by Putin

00:21:52at this meeting, presumably in the Admiralty in St. Petersburg, to discuss ship construction and such things.

00:22:03So, Putin was already scheduled to go to St. Petersburg.

00:22:09But, anyway, he took time off and he met Witkoff.

00:22:13And we're told that the meeting lasted for five hours, which is a very, very long time.

00:22:19And one wonders what took place.

00:22:21The meeting, we are also told, took place in the Presidential Library in St. Petersburg.

00:22:29I am not sure where that is located, to be clear.

00:22:34It might have been in the former Senate and Synod building near the Admiralty building in St. Petersburg.

00:22:43But I'm not going to waste time debating that.

00:22:46Anyway, the Kremlin has provided us with photos of the meeting between Witkoff and Putin.

00:22:54They all look fairly cheerful.

00:22:56We see that Yuri Ushikov, Putin's foreign policy aide, was there.

00:23:03And, of course, Dimitriyev was also there.

00:23:06And they're all shaking hands.

00:23:08And they're all looking fairly pleased with each other.

00:23:12So, that's this meeting.

00:23:15This is a photographic study provided by the Kremlin.

00:23:18And the actual report of the meeting by the Kremlin is very brief.

00:23:27The President of Russia held a meeting with Steve Witkoff,

00:23:30Special Envoy of the President of the United States of America.

00:23:34The meeting is focused on the aspects of the Ukraine crisis settlement.

00:23:43And we know, by the way, that directly after this meeting,

00:23:50Witkoff went onto his private jet and flew to Oman,

00:23:55where he is participating in the discussions with the Iranian delegation.

00:24:03As I said, he appears to be a very overworked man at this moment.

00:24:08Now, the Russians have provided us with no further information about the meeting

00:24:12and about what took place.

00:24:13We were told before the meeting happened by Peskov, Putin's spokesman,

00:24:22that Putin would convey certain concerns and anxieties the Russians have

00:24:31about where the whole discussion about peace in Ukraine was going.

00:24:38It doesn't sound as if the Russians were in much of a mood

00:24:44to make any significant concessions.

00:24:48And, in fact, Peskov went on to say that no one should express

00:24:55any substantial breakthroughs, expect any substantial breakthroughs

00:25:00as part of the meeting.

00:25:02But, anyway, that's the information from the Russian side

00:25:11about what took place.

00:25:15Now, on the American side, we have much less.

00:25:19We do have a comment expressed before the meeting

00:25:23took place by President Trump on Truth Social.

00:25:29Russia has to get moving.

00:25:32Too many people are dying.

00:25:34Thousands a week in a terrible and senseless war.

00:25:37A war that should never have happened

00:25:40and wouldn't have happened if I were President.

00:25:43And that's it.

00:25:44That's all Trump says.

00:25:46But Axios, fairly well-connected news magazine

00:25:52in the United States,

00:25:54in a long and somewhat garbled account,

00:25:59of the trip.

00:26:02Says that Trump has become frustrated.

00:26:05The negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks

00:26:08and said at one point that he was pissed off

00:26:10about comments Putin had made on Ukraine.

00:26:14And if no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month,

00:26:18which is presumably this month,

00:26:20Trump could move, could move forward

00:26:23with additional sanctions on Russia,

00:26:27either through executive power

00:26:29or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation.

00:26:34A source familiar with the issue told Axios,

00:26:39We will know soon enough,

00:26:42in a matter of weeks, not months,

00:26:43whether Russia is serious about peace or not.

00:26:46I hope they are,

00:26:47Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week,

00:26:50on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

00:26:53So by the end of the month,

00:26:56presumably means by the end of April.

00:27:00And there are some suggestions

00:27:01that Wyckoff came with some kind of a message

00:27:06to Putin from Trump,

00:27:08basically couched in the form of some sort of ultimatum,

00:27:14whereby the Russians were told,

00:27:18look, you've got until the end of April

00:27:19to agree a ceasefire.

00:27:21You don't agree a ceasefire.

00:27:23Then the United States will impose

00:27:25further sanctions upon you.

00:27:27And of course,

00:27:28these could be activating

00:27:30the so-called bone crunching sanctions

00:27:32that Lindsey Graham and his friends

00:27:36have been putting together in Congress,

00:27:38which would impose a 500% tariffs

00:27:42on any and every country,

00:27:45excepting purchases of Russian oil.

00:27:49and presumably other project products as well.

00:27:54An attempt, in effect,

00:27:55to isolate Russia completely

00:27:57from the world economy.

00:28:00Anyway,

00:28:01that's one possible view

00:28:07of what happened.

00:28:09that if we go back

00:28:11to Trump's truth social post,

00:28:15it's interesting that

00:28:18it doesn't actually contain any threats.

00:28:22It just says that Russia has to get moving.

00:28:26It does put the burden on the Russians

00:28:31to make the next move

00:28:34towards a ceasefire.

00:28:36It doesn't seem to show any sign

00:28:40that it's the Ukrainians

00:28:41who are in fact causing the problems.

00:28:44But it basically puts the weight

00:28:48of events on the Russians

00:28:50to decide whether or not

00:28:54they want to accept

00:28:55this unconditional ceasefire

00:28:57that Trump wants.

00:29:00The alternative presumably being

00:29:02the bone crunching sanctions

00:29:04or something like that

00:29:05that the Americans might have in mind.

00:29:08But the true social post

00:29:11doesn't threaten it.

00:29:12which suggests to me

00:29:14that Trump hasn't fully

00:29:17made up his mind.

00:29:19And here we have

00:29:21a very interesting article

00:29:23in Reuters

00:29:25which does seem to be based

00:29:27on sources,

00:29:30genuine sources

00:29:31within the administration.

00:29:35And the title of the article

00:29:37is the Trump's

00:29:39Trump Envoy's

00:29:40Abrace of Russian Demands

00:29:42Worries Republicans,

00:29:44U.S. Allies.

00:29:46And this article

00:29:49basically says this

00:29:52that apparently at some point

00:29:54over the last couple of days

00:29:57some kind of meeting took place

00:29:59presumably in the White House

00:30:01which Trump himself attended.

00:30:05Maybe this took place

00:30:07at the time when

00:30:08Dmitry himself

00:30:09was in Washington.

00:30:11Anyway,

00:30:12a meeting took place

00:30:13and an argument followed.

00:30:20Witkoff told Trump

00:30:23that the quickest way

00:30:25to end the war,

00:30:27perhaps the only way

00:30:28to end the war

00:30:29on the basis

00:30:30of a negotiated settlement

00:30:32was to accept

00:30:34Putin's insistence,

00:30:36the Russian insistence,

00:30:37that the four regions

00:30:39Zaporozhye,

00:30:41Kherson,

00:30:42Donetsk

00:30:43and Lugansk

00:30:44must be transferred

00:30:46in their entirety

00:30:48to Russia.

00:30:49and apparently

00:30:52in that same meeting

00:30:55that provoked

00:30:56a strong pushback

00:30:59from none other

00:31:00than General Kellogg.

00:31:02He said there was no way

00:31:03the Ukrainians would ever

00:31:04accept that

00:31:05and apparently

00:31:07Kellogg said that

00:31:08this was not

00:31:08what the president

00:31:10should decide to do.

00:31:12and Trump

00:31:14apparently listened

00:31:15to the whole discussion

00:31:17but

00:31:18declined

00:31:20to come down

00:31:21on one side

00:31:22or the other.

00:31:24He seems

00:31:25unsure

00:31:27what to do.

00:31:29Now,

00:31:30Kellogg

00:31:31has been busy

00:31:32and I have to say

00:31:34that

00:31:34there's been

00:31:35a recent

00:31:36flurry of statements

00:31:38by him

00:31:40and connected

00:31:41to him

00:31:42which

00:31:43clarify

00:31:45a very

00:31:47important

00:31:48fact.

00:31:49It's now

00:31:50absolutely clear

00:31:51to me

00:31:51that

00:31:52Starmer

00:31:53and Macron's

00:31:54plan

00:31:55to send

00:31:56European

00:31:56peacekeeping

00:31:57forces

00:31:58or reassurance

00:31:59forces

00:31:59as they're now

00:32:00being called

00:32:01to Ukraine

00:32:02is

00:32:03something

00:32:03that

00:32:04Macron

00:32:05and Starmer

00:32:06have been

00:32:06coordinating

00:32:07with Kellogg.

00:32:08This is

00:32:09absolutely

00:32:10an idea

00:32:12that

00:32:12Kellogg

00:32:13himself

00:32:14backs

00:32:15and

00:32:17has been

00:32:18promoting.

00:32:19We know

00:32:19this

00:32:20because

00:32:21a day

00:32:22or so

00:32:23ago

00:32:23the London

00:32:24Times

00:32:24published

00:32:25an article

00:32:26in which

00:32:27it spoke

00:32:28of

00:32:29Kellogg

00:32:30advocating

00:32:32the partitioning

00:32:33of Ukraine

00:32:35in the

00:32:37same way

00:32:37that Germany

00:32:38had been

00:32:38partitioned

00:32:39after the

00:32:40Second World

00:32:41War

00:32:41into

00:32:42various

00:32:43regions

00:32:45one

00:32:46controlled

00:32:46by France

00:32:47another

00:32:48controlled

00:32:48by Britain

00:32:49another

00:32:50controlled

00:32:50by Russia

00:32:51a kind

00:32:52of

00:32:52romp

00:32:52area

00:32:53where

00:32:53Ukraine

00:32:54would

00:32:54exercise

00:32:55its

00:32:56own

00:32:57control

00:32:57and

00:32:59Kellogg

00:33:00shot

00:33:01back

00:33:01on

00:33:02X

00:33:03with

00:33:04this

00:33:05comment

00:33:06the

00:33:06Times

00:33:07article

00:33:08misrepresents

00:33:09what I

00:33:10said

00:33:10I was

00:33:11speaking

00:33:11of a

00:33:12post

00:33:12ceasefire

00:33:13resiliency

00:33:15force

00:33:15in

00:33:16support of

00:33:16Ukraine's

00:33:17sovereignty

00:33:18in

00:33:18discussions

00:33:19I was

00:33:20in

00:33:20discussions

00:33:21of

00:33:21partitioning

00:33:22I was

00:33:22referencing

00:33:23areas

00:33:24or zones

00:33:24of

00:33:25responsibility

00:33:25for an

00:33:26allied

00:33:27force

00:33:27without

00:33:28US

00:33:28troops

00:33:29I

00:33:30was

00:33:30not

00:33:30referring

00:33:31to

00:33:31the

00:33:31partitioning

00:33:32of

00:33:33Ukraine

00:33:33well

00:33:34that is

00:33:35very

00:33:35interesting

00:33:35I'm

00:33:36sure

00:33:36he was

00:33:36not

00:33:36talking

00:33:37about

00:33:37the

00:33:37partitioning

00:33:38of

00:33:38Ukraine

00:33:39but

00:33:39it

00:33:40tells

00:33:40us

00:33:41that

00:33:42he

00:33:42is

00:33:42an

00:33:42advocate

00:33:43within

00:33:43the

00:33:43administration

00:33:44of

00:33:46Starmer's

00:33:47and

00:33:47Macron's

00:33:48plan

00:33:48to

00:33:49send

00:33:50troops

00:33:50after

00:33:51a

00:33:52ceasefire

00:33:53is

00:33:53agreed

00:33:53to

00:33:54Ukraine

00:33:55that

00:33:56this

00:33:56idea

00:33:57of

00:33:57sending

00:33:57European

00:33:58troops

00:33:59French

00:34:00and

00:34:00British

00:34:01troops

00:34:01to

00:34:02Ukraine

00:34:03has

00:34:04presumably

00:34:05been

00:34:07agreed

00:34:08by

00:34:08Starmer

00:34:09and

00:34:10Macron

00:34:11with

00:34:12Kellogg

00:34:12and

00:34:13it

00:34:14has

00:34:14often

00:34:14baffled

00:34:15me

00:34:15it

00:34:15has

00:34:15seriously

00:34:16puzzled

00:34:17me

00:34:17why

00:34:19despite

00:34:20the

00:34:20refusal

00:34:21of

00:34:22Trump

00:34:23and

00:34:23his

00:34:24officials

00:34:24to

00:34:25give

00:34:25this

00:34:26idea

00:34:26of

00:34:27a

00:34:28European

00:34:29force

00:34:29American

00:34:32guarantees

00:34:33guarantees

00:34:35from the

00:34:35United

00:34:36States

00:34:36that

00:34:37this

00:34:37force

00:34:37would

00:34:38receive

00:34:39American

00:34:39protection

00:34:40in the

00:34:41event

00:34:42that

00:34:42things

00:34:42went

00:34:43badly

00:34:43wrong

00:34:44with

00:34:45the

00:34:45Russians

00:34:45the

00:34:46Russians

00:34:46of

00:34:47course

00:34:47being

00:34:48adamantly

00:34:48opposed

00:34:49to

00:34:49this

00:34:49idea

00:34:50why

00:34:51in

00:34:51spite

00:34:51of

00:34:52that

00:34:52this

00:34:53idea

00:34:53simply

00:34:54won't

00:34:54die

00:34:55and

00:34:56why

00:34:56the

00:34:58Trump

00:34:58administration

00:34:59why Donald

00:35:00Trump

00:35:00himself

00:35:01who

00:35:02must

00:35:03by now

00:35:03realise

00:35:04how

00:35:05objectionable

00:35:06this

00:35:07plan is

00:35:08to the

00:35:08Russians

00:35:08and the

00:35:09way in

00:35:09which

00:35:10it is

00:35:11holding

00:35:11up

00:35:11the

00:35:12whole

00:35:13process

00:35:14of

00:35:14negotiations

00:35:15with

00:35:16the

00:35:16Russians

00:35:17why

00:35:18the

00:35:19Trump

00:35:20administration

00:35:20has not

00:35:21simply

00:35:21come out

00:35:22and said

00:35:23that it

00:35:24is

00:35:24opposed

00:35:25to

00:35:25this

00:35:25plan

00:35:26well

00:35:27we

00:35:27now

00:35:28know

00:35:28because

00:35:29the

00:35:29plan

00:35:29is

00:35:30backed

00:35:31within

00:35:31the

00:35:32administration

00:35:32by

00:35:33Kellogg

00:35:33and

00:35:34it's

00:35:34a

00:35:35reasonable

00:35:35guess

00:35:36by

00:35:36Mike

00:35:37Wals

00:35:37Trump's

00:35:40national

00:35:40security

00:35:41advisor

00:35:42and

00:35:43most

00:35:44probably

00:35:44by

00:35:45the

00:35:45US

00:35:45secretary

00:35:46of

00:35:46state

00:35:46Marco

00:35:47Rubio

00:35:48so

00:35:49we

00:35:50see

00:35:51that

00:35:52Trump

00:35:52that

00:35:53Trump's

00:35:54administration

00:35:55is

00:35:55divided

00:35:55and

00:35:56that

00:35:57Kellogg

00:35:57is

00:35:58working

00:36:00effectively

00:36:01alongside

00:36:02Starmer

00:36:04and

00:36:05Macron

00:36:05Starmer

00:36:07and

00:36:07Macron

00:36:08presumably

00:36:08wanting

00:36:09to send

00:36:10these troops

00:36:10into

00:36:11Ukraine

00:36:11ultimately

00:36:13with the

00:36:15objective

00:36:15of

00:36:16sucking

00:36:17in the

00:36:17United

00:36:18States

00:36:18probably

00:36:20looking

00:36:22to use

00:36:23the presence

00:36:24of NATO

00:36:25troops

00:36:25in Ukraine

00:36:26to gradually

00:36:27draw Ukraine

00:36:28into NATO

00:36:29to win

00:36:30in other

00:36:30words

00:36:31through

00:36:32negotiations

00:36:33what

00:36:34has been

00:36:35lost

00:36:36on the

00:36:37battlefield

00:36:38and

00:36:40Kellogg

00:36:42backing

00:36:44all of

00:36:45this

00:36:45quite

00:36:46plausibly

00:36:47for the

00:36:48same

00:36:48reasons

00:36:49if we

00:36:49go back

00:36:50to his

00:36:51report

00:36:53of

00:36:54April

00:36:542024

00:36:56written

00:36:58by the

00:36:58way

00:36:58before

00:36:59the

00:36:59major

00:37:00Russian

00:37:00offensive

00:37:01of

00:37:02that

00:37:03year

00:37:04the

00:37:05biggest

00:37:06gains

00:37:07made

00:37:07by that

00:37:08Russian

00:37:08offensive

00:37:09Kellogg

00:37:10at that

00:37:10time

00:37:11was also

00:37:12talking

00:37:12about

00:37:12sending

00:37:13peacekeeping

00:37:14forces

00:37:14into

00:37:14Ukraine

00:37:15from

00:37:15Europe

00:37:16and

00:37:18deferring

00:37:19not

00:37:20completely

00:37:21cancelling

00:37:22the

00:37:25prospect

00:37:25of

00:37:26Ukraine

00:37:26eventually

00:37:28entering

00:37:29NATO

00:37:29delaying

00:37:30it

00:37:31for 10

00:37:31or 20

00:37:32years

00:37:33now I

00:37:34said when

00:37:35I discussed

00:37:35this plan

00:37:36or rather

00:37:37this

00:37:37set of

00:37:39proposals

00:37:39that the

00:37:39Russians

00:37:40would not

00:37:40accept them

00:37:41that they

00:37:42seem to

00:37:42me

00:37:43disconnected

00:37:43from

00:37:44reality

00:37:44I've

00:37:47said this

00:37:47many times

00:37:48so has

00:37:49my colleague

00:37:51Alex

00:37:51Christoforos

00:37:52and many

00:37:52other

00:37:53people

00:37:53it's

00:37:56now

00:37:57clear

00:37:58that the

00:37:59Russians

00:37:59will not

00:38:00accept

00:38:01them

00:38:01Whitgoth

00:38:02has met

00:38:03now

00:38:04with

00:38:05Putin

00:38:05and

00:38:06other

00:38:07American

00:38:08officials

00:38:08have met

00:38:12with the

00:38:12Russians

00:38:13also

00:38:14and

00:38:15as I

00:38:16said

00:38:16the

00:38:16Russians

00:38:16have made

00:38:17that

00:38:17absolutely

00:38:18clear

00:38:19as well

00:38:19Kellogg's

00:38:21plan

00:38:22if one

00:38:23can call

00:38:23it a

00:38:23plan

00:38:24of

00:38:24April

00:38:252024

00:38:26has in

00:38:27other words

00:38:27collided

00:38:28with reality

00:38:28which is

00:38:30strong Russian

00:38:31opposition

00:38:31but as

00:38:32often happens

00:38:33he won't

00:38:34let it

00:38:35go

00:38:35he continues

00:38:36to believe

00:38:37that this

00:38:38plan is

00:38:39somehow

00:38:39the plan

00:38:40that will

00:38:41work

00:38:42and that

00:38:42the Russians

00:38:43can in

00:38:43some way

00:38:44be coerced

00:38:45into agreeing

00:38:46to it

00:38:47now

00:38:48Whitgoth

00:38:49who has

00:38:50met the

00:38:51Russians

00:38:51and met

00:38:52Putin

00:38:52more

00:38:53extensively

00:38:54and more

00:38:55thoroughly

00:38:57than any

00:38:58other

00:38:58American

00:38:59official

00:39:00now knows

00:39:02otherwise

00:39:02and he's

00:39:03coming back

00:39:04to Trump

00:39:04and he's

00:39:06telling

00:39:06Trump

00:39:07the

00:39:08Kellogg

00:39:09plan

00:39:10won't

00:39:10work

00:39:11the Russians

00:39:12will not

00:39:13agree

00:39:14and we

00:39:15can see

00:39:15that there

00:39:15is now

00:39:16tension

00:39:17within

00:39:18the

00:39:18Trump

00:39:19team

00:39:20some

00:39:21support

00:39:22Kellogg

00:39:23they don't

00:39:23want to

00:39:24give concessions

00:39:25to the

00:39:25Russians

00:39:26Rubio

00:39:27Walls

00:39:27Kellogg

00:39:29various

00:39:30members of

00:39:31Congress

00:39:32Reuters

00:39:32tells us

00:39:33that there

00:39:33is

00:39:34unease

00:39:35in

00:39:36Congress

00:39:36at the

00:39:38amount

00:39:38of

00:39:38at the

00:39:42amount

00:39:43of

00:39:43the

00:39:44role

00:39:44that

00:39:45Whitgoth

00:39:46has been

00:39:46assuming

00:39:47one

00:39:48Republican

00:39:49one prominent

00:39:50Republican

00:39:50has written

00:39:52apparently

00:39:53to Trump

00:39:54demanding

00:39:55that

00:39:56Whitgoth

00:39:57be sacked

00:39:58because he's

00:39:59simply accepting

00:40:00and repeating

00:40:01Russian talking

00:40:02points

00:40:03and that

00:40:04the

00:40:04negotiations

00:40:05the conduct

00:40:06of the

00:40:06negotiations

00:40:07should be

00:40:08fully taken

00:40:09over by

00:40:11Rubio

00:40:12so

00:40:13that's

00:40:14what

00:40:15one side

00:40:18of the

00:40:19administration

00:40:20but the

00:40:20Reuters

00:40:21article says

00:40:22that there

00:40:23are others

00:40:24within the

00:40:25administration

00:40:26the Trump

00:40:27team

00:40:27who take

00:40:28a different

00:40:29view

00:40:29and who

00:40:31are backing

00:40:32Whitgoth

00:40:32now

00:40:34this is

00:40:35where

00:40:37ultimately

00:40:38the decision

00:40:39has to

00:40:39come down

00:40:40to Trump

00:40:41himself

00:40:41he

00:40:43clearly

00:40:44is

00:40:45surprised

00:40:46that the

00:40:47Kellogg

00:40:48plan

00:40:48which he

00:40:49presumably

00:40:50was told

00:40:51the Russians

00:40:52would quickly

00:40:53agree to

00:40:54has not

00:40:55been

00:40:55accepted

00:40:56by the

00:40:57Russians

00:40:57one can

00:40:58see in

00:40:59his true

00:40:59social post

00:41:00again that

00:41:01bafflement

00:41:02that sense

00:41:04of bafflement

00:41:04that things

00:41:05are not

00:41:05proving as

00:41:06easy and

00:41:07as straightforward

00:41:08as he's

00:41:09assumed

00:41:10Russia has

00:41:11to get

00:41:11moving

00:41:12just as

00:41:14he appears

00:41:15to have

00:41:16assumed

00:41:16that the

00:41:17Chinese

00:41:18would quickly

00:41:20come round

00:41:21to the

00:41:22tariffs that

00:41:23he imposed

00:41:24on them

00:41:24and is

00:41:25somewhat

00:41:27taken aback

00:41:28that instead

00:41:29of doing

00:41:29that they

00:41:30have

00:41:30retaliated

00:41:31he appears

00:41:34to be

00:41:34baffled by

00:41:35the fact

00:41:35that the

00:41:36Russians are

00:41:36digging in

00:41:37their heels

00:41:37and are

00:41:38telling

00:41:39Whitgoth

00:41:40that

00:41:41Kellogg's

00:41:42plan is

00:41:44a non-starter

00:41:45and it

00:41:46simply

00:41:46won't

00:41:47work

00:41:47and my

00:41:49guess is

00:41:50that

00:41:51Whitgoth

00:41:51was sent

00:41:53to Russia

00:41:54by Trump

00:41:55in a

00:41:57last

00:41:58ditch

00:41:59attempt

00:41:59to get

00:42:00the

00:42:00Russians

00:42:01to accept

00:42:02the Kellogg

00:42:03plan

00:42:03that's

00:42:04probably

00:42:04what

00:42:05the

00:42:06letter

00:42:06from

00:42:07if it

00:42:07was a

00:42:08letter

00:42:08or the

00:42:08message

00:42:09from

00:42:09Trump

00:42:10to

00:42:11Putin

00:42:11set out

00:42:14and the

00:42:16fact that

00:42:16the meeting

00:42:17went on

00:42:17for five

00:42:18hours

00:42:18was again

00:42:19probably

00:42:20Putin

00:42:21going

00:42:22into great

00:42:23details

00:42:23again

00:42:24to explain

00:42:25why the

00:42:26Kellogg

00:42:27plan

00:42:27is a

00:42:29non-starter

00:42:30and why

00:42:32even the

00:42:33ideas of

00:42:33temporary

00:42:34ceasefires

00:42:35without

00:42:35cessations

00:42:36of military

00:42:37aid and

00:42:38intelligence

00:42:39support

00:42:40to

00:42:40Ukraine

00:42:41is a

00:42:42non-starter

00:42:43and

00:42:44providing

00:42:45no doubt

00:42:45Whitgoth

00:42:47with a

00:42:48long list

00:42:49carefully

00:42:50compiled

00:42:51by the

00:42:51Russian

00:42:51defence

00:42:52ministry

00:42:52you can

00:42:53find it

00:42:54all set

00:42:54out

00:42:54fully

00:42:55on their

00:42:56telegram

00:42:56channel

00:42:57in which

00:42:59there's a

00:43:01whole list

00:43:01of

00:43:02the

00:43:04various

00:43:04ceasefire

00:43:05violations

00:43:06that

00:43:08the

00:43:08Ukrainians

00:43:10have

00:43:10made

00:43:10that

00:43:11they

00:43:11have

00:43:11simply

00:43:12disregarded

00:43:12the

00:43:13energy

00:43:14truce

00:43:14so

00:43:15I

00:43:17suspect

00:43:17that

00:43:18Whitgoth

00:43:20is going

00:43:21to come

00:43:22back

00:43:22to Trump

00:43:24and he's

00:43:25going to

00:43:25tell Trump

00:43:26that

00:43:27Putin

00:43:28is simply

00:43:30not shifting

00:43:30that this

00:43:31is not

00:43:32a success

00:43:33that this

00:43:34Kellogg

00:43:35plan

00:43:36on its

00:43:37own terms

00:43:38is not

00:43:39succeeding

00:43:40now this

00:43:41then brings

00:43:42us back

00:43:42to what

00:43:43Trump

00:43:43is going

00:43:44to do

00:43:44just as

00:43:46the Russians

00:43:48are not

00:43:49accepting

00:43:49the Kellogg

00:43:50plan

00:43:50it's now

00:43:51becoming

00:43:52increasingly

00:43:53clear

00:43:53that the

00:43:55Ukrainians

00:43:56are not

00:43:57accepting

00:43:58the mineral

00:43:58rights

00:43:59extraction

00:43:59deal

00:44:00we have

00:44:01another

00:44:01report

00:44:02also

00:44:02from

00:44:03Reuters

00:44:03and this

00:44:04time I'm

00:44:04confident

00:44:05that the

00:44:05information

00:44:06has been

00:44:07provided

00:44:07both by

00:44:08American

00:44:08and Ukrainian

00:44:09officials

00:44:10anyway

00:44:12there was

00:44:13apparently

00:44:13a first

00:44:13meeting

00:44:15between

00:44:16the

00:44:16Americans

00:44:16and the

00:44:17Ukrainians

00:44:18to discuss

00:44:19the

00:44:19mineral

00:44:20rights

00:44:20deal

00:44:21Reuters

00:44:22title

00:44:23is

00:44:23US

00:44:24Ukraine

00:44:24hold

00:44:25tense

00:44:26talks

00:44:26as

00:44:26mineral

00:44:27deal

00:44:27remains

00:44:28elusive

00:44:28source

00:44:29says

00:44:30and

00:44:31we're

00:44:32told

00:44:32that

00:44:32US

00:44:33and

00:44:33Ukrainian

00:44:33officials

00:44:34met

00:44:34on

00:44:34Friday

00:44:35on

00:44:35a

00:44:35US

00:44:35proposal

00:44:36to gain

00:44:37access

00:44:37to

00:44:38Ukraine's

00:44:38mineral

00:44:38wealth

00:44:39a

00:44:40source

00:44:41within

00:44:41with

00:44:42knowledge

00:44:43of the

00:44:43matter

00:44:43said

00:44:44adding

00:44:45the

00:44:45prospects

00:44:46for a

00:44:46breakthrough

00:44:47was

00:44:47scant

00:44:47given

00:44:48the

00:44:49meeting's

00:44:49antagonistic

00:44:51atmosphere

00:44:51and

00:44:53we are

00:44:54told

00:44:54that the

00:44:55negotiating

00:44:55environment

00:44:57is

00:44:57very

00:44:58antagonistic

00:44:59and the

00:45:00source

00:45:01who's

00:45:01clearly

00:45:01Ukrainian

00:45:02pointed

00:45:03to the

00:45:04maximalist

00:45:05draft

00:45:05submitted

00:45:06by the

00:45:07Trump

00:45:07administration

00:45:08last month

00:45:09Treasury

00:45:10Department

00:45:11spokesman

00:45:12confirmed

00:45:12the

00:45:12discussions

00:45:13calling

00:45:13them

00:45:14technical

00:45:15in

00:45:15nature

00:45:16and

00:45:18it

00:45:19looks

00:45:19as if

00:45:19one

00:45:20of the

00:45:20things

00:45:20the

00:45:21sources

00:45:22as it

00:45:22was

00:45:22clearly

00:45:22Ukrainian

00:45:23so that

00:45:23one

00:45:23of the

00:45:24Easter

00:45:24eggs

00:45:25found

00:45:25in the

00:45:25document

00:45:26was a

00:45:27US

00:45:28demand

00:45:29that the

00:45:29US

00:45:29government's

00:45:30international

00:45:31development

00:45:32finance

00:45:33corporation

00:45:34take control

00:45:36of a

00:45:36natural gas

00:45:37pipeline

00:45:38from Russian

00:45:39energy

00:45:39giant

00:45:40Gazprom

00:45:41across

00:45:42Ukraine

00:45:42to

00:45:43Europe

00:45:44and

00:45:45to

00:45:46top

00:45:46Ukrainian

00:45:47officials

00:45:48including

00:45:49Prime Minister

00:45:49Shmigal

00:45:50and Finance

00:45:51Minister

00:45:51Marchenko

00:45:52will be in

00:45:53Washington

00:45:53in two

00:45:54weeks

00:45:54for IMF

00:45:56and

00:45:56World Bank

00:45:57meetings

00:45:58and that

00:45:59there might be

00:45:59further

00:46:00discussions

00:46:01then

00:46:01now

00:46:02by the

00:46:03way

00:46:04just

00:46:04to

00:46:05confirm

00:46:05something

00:46:06the

00:46:07pipelines

00:46:07the gas

00:46:08pipelines

00:46:09that

00:46:10transit

00:46:10Ukraine

00:46:11do not

00:46:12actually

00:46:12by my

00:46:13understanding

00:46:14belong to

00:46:15Gazprom

00:46:16and have

00:46:16never done

00:46:17so

00:46:17they are

00:46:18the

00:46:19property

00:46:20or were

00:46:22the property

00:46:23of Ukraine's

00:46:24own

00:46:25natural gas

00:46:26monopoly

00:46:27NAFTA

00:46:28gas

00:46:28obviously

00:46:29they were

00:46:31built

00:46:31in the

00:46:32era

00:46:32of the

00:46:33Soviet

00:46:33Union

00:46:34they were

00:46:35built

00:46:35by

00:46:35the

00:46:36Soviet

00:46:37Union's

00:46:37Ministry

00:46:38of

00:46:39Gas

00:46:39Industry

00:46:40the

00:46:41Ministry

00:46:42of

00:46:42Gas

00:46:42Industry

00:46:43eventually

00:46:45became

00:46:46Gazprom

00:46:47and it

00:46:48was

00:46:48Gazprom's

00:46:49gas

00:46:50that

00:46:50flowed

00:46:51through

00:46:51those

00:46:51pipelines

00:46:52but

00:46:53after

00:46:53Ukraine

00:46:54became

00:46:55independent

00:46:55actual

00:46:57ownership

00:46:58of

00:46:59these

00:46:59pipelines

00:47:00was

00:47:01transferred

00:47:02to

00:47:02Ukraine

00:47:03and

00:47:04eventually

00:47:04they

00:47:04came to

00:47:05be

00:47:05owned

00:47:06and

00:47:06managed

00:47:07by

00:47:07NAFTA

00:47:08gas

00:47:08so

00:47:09the

00:47:09demands

00:47:10perhaps

00:47:11the

00:47:12Americans

00:47:12have not

00:47:13understand

00:47:13this

00:47:14perhaps

00:47:14they

00:47:14assume

00:47:15still

00:47:16that

00:47:16these

00:47:16are

00:47:17Gazprom

00:47:17pipelines

00:47:19but

00:47:20ultimately

00:47:20what

00:47:21the

00:47:21demand

00:47:21amounts

00:47:22to

00:47:22is

00:47:23that

00:47:23Ukraine

00:47:24transfer

00:47:24perhaps

00:47:27ownership

00:47:27but

00:47:28certainly

00:47:29control

00:47:29of

00:47:30these

00:47:30pipelines

00:47:31from

00:47:33Ukraine

00:47:33to the

00:47:34United

00:47:35States

00:47:35now

00:47:36these

00:47:38pipelines

00:47:39are

00:47:41really

00:47:42only

00:47:43meaningfully

00:47:44useful

00:47:45if

00:47:47gas

00:47:48transit

00:47:49from

00:47:49Russia

00:47:50to

00:47:51Europe

00:47:51resumes

00:47:52and

00:47:54this is

00:47:54fully

00:47:54consistent

00:47:55by the

00:47:55way

00:47:56with

00:47:56the

00:47:57reports

00:47:57that the

00:47:58United

00:47:58States

00:47:59or rather

00:48:00the Trump

00:48:01administration

00:48:01has also

00:48:02been

00:48:02sniffing

00:48:03at the

00:48:04idea

00:48:04of

00:48:05resuming

00:48:07gas

00:48:08transit

00:48:09via the

00:48:10Nord Stream

00:48:10pipeline

00:48:11with the

00:48:12United

00:48:12States

00:48:13acquiring

00:48:14either

00:48:15a share

00:48:16or even

00:48:17outright

00:48:17ownership

00:48:18of

00:48:19Nord Stream

00:48:20just saying

00:48:21but

00:48:23for the

00:48:23gas

00:48:24for this

00:48:25thing to

00:48:25be

00:48:26actually

00:48:27viable

00:48:27the

00:48:28gas

00:48:29that

00:48:29flows

00:48:30most

00:48:31of it

00:48:31must

00:48:32nonetheless

00:48:32still

00:48:33come

00:48:33from

00:48:33Russia

00:48:33there

00:48:34is

00:48:34gas

00:48:35that

00:48:36used

00:48:36to

00:48:36flow

00:48:37through

00:48:37the

00:48:37pipelines

00:48:37from

00:48:38Kazakhstan

00:48:38and

00:48:39Afghanistan

00:48:39and

00:48:40Azerbaijan

00:48:41but

00:48:42ultimately

00:48:43the

00:48:44gas

00:48:44has

00:48:45to

00:48:45come

00:48:45from

00:48:45Russia

00:48:46as

00:48:47well

00:48:47now

00:48:48one

00:48:48could

00:48:48see

00:48:48again

00:48:49the

00:48:49plan

00:48:51that

00:48:52the

00:48:52Trump

00:48:52administration

00:48:53had

00:48:53do

00:48:55a deal

00:48:55with

00:48:55the

00:48:56Russians

00:48:56get

00:48:57some

00:48:57kind

00:48:57of a

00:48:57ceasefire

00:48:58get

00:48:59these

00:48:59pipelines

00:48:59moving

00:49:00how the

00:49:01gas

00:49:01move

00:49:02along

00:49:02the

00:49:02pipeline

00:49:03supplied

00:49:03by the

00:49:04Russians

00:49:04the

00:49:05gas

00:49:06passes

00:49:07through

00:49:07American

00:49:08owned

00:49:08pipelines

00:49:09and

00:49:10reaches

00:49:11Europe

00:49:12in that

00:49:13kind

00:49:13of way

00:49:13and the

00:49:15United

00:49:15States

00:49:15which

00:49:16controls

00:49:16the

00:49:16pipelines

00:49:17makes

00:49:17the

00:49:18money

00:49:18and by

00:49:19the way

00:49:19is in

00:49:20control

00:49:21of the

00:49:22gas

00:49:22and

00:49:23I'm

00:49:23going to

00:49:23suggest

00:49:24that

00:49:25not only

00:49:25is this

00:49:25an Easter

00:49:26egg

00:49:26contained

00:49:27in

00:49:28the

00:49:29mineral

00:49:30rights

00:49:30extraction

00:49:31agreement

00:49:31but it's

00:49:32probably

00:49:33the key

00:49:34to

00:49:34understanding

00:49:35the

00:49:36mineral

00:49:36rights

00:49:37extraction

00:49:38agreement

00:49:38it's

00:49:39basically

00:49:40a

00:49:40straightforward

00:49:41attempt

00:49:41not just

00:49:42to obtain

00:49:42access to

00:49:43rare earths

00:49:44and all of

00:49:45those things

00:49:45but to

00:49:47gain

00:49:47control

00:49:48American

00:49:49America

00:49:50gaining

00:49:50control

00:49:51of the

00:49:53entire

00:49:54vast

00:49:55industry

00:49:56of

00:49:57Russian

00:49:57gas

00:49:58export

00:49:59to

00:50:00Europe

00:50:01and

00:50:02gaining

00:50:02control

00:50:03of it

00:50:03in a

00:50:04way

00:50:04that

00:50:04will

00:50:04make

00:50:04a

00:50:05profit

00:50:05for

00:50:06the

00:50:06United

00:50:07States

00:50:07and

00:50:08what

00:50:08Trump

00:50:08is

00:50:09now

00:50:09discovering

00:50:09is

00:50:10that

00:50:10the

00:50:10Ukrainians

00:50:11are

00:50:12strongly

00:50:13opposed

00:50:13to

00:50:13this

00:50:14we

00:50:15told

00:50:15that

00:50:15the

00:50:15meeting

00:50:16took

00:50:16place

00:50:16in

00:50:17a

00:50:17highly

00:50:17antagonistic

00:50:18atmosphere

00:50:19which

00:50:20looks

00:50:20like

00:50:20there

00:50:21was

00:50:21a

00:50:21massive

00:50:21row

00:50:22probably

00:50:23with

00:50:23raised

00:50:23voices

00:50:24and

00:50:24people

00:50:25shouting

00:50:25and

00:50:25banging

00:50:26the

00:50:26table

00:50:26highly

00:50:27antagonistic

00:50:28atmosphere

00:50:29clearly

00:50:30points

00:50:31in that

00:50:32direction

00:50:32and

00:50:33it

00:50:34must

00:50:34look

00:50:35to

00:50:35Trump

00:50:35as

00:50:36if

00:50:36he's

00:50:36been

00:50:36blocked

00:50:37at

00:50:37every

00:50:38turn

00:50:38the

00:50:39Russians

00:50:39won't

00:50:39accept

00:50:40the

00:50:40Kellogg

00:50:40plan

00:50:41they

00:50:41won't

00:50:42agree

00:50:42to

00:50:42the

00:50:42ceasefire

00:50:43the

00:50:44Ukrainians

00:50:44won't

00:50:44hand

00:50:45over

00:50:45their

00:50:46pipelines

00:50:46they

00:50:47won't

00:50:48play

00:50:49ball

00:50:50with

00:50:50gas

00:50:51transit

00:50:52which

00:50:52they

00:50:53would

00:50:53certainly

00:50:54see

00:50:54as

00:50:54an

00:50:55existential

00:50:55matter

00:50:56and

00:50:57the

00:50:57United

00:50:57States

00:50:58finds

00:50:58itself

00:50:59in

00:50:59significant

00:50:59difficulty

00:51:00so what

00:51:01is Trump

00:51:01going to

00:51:02do

00:51:02now

00:51:03he

00:51:03could

00:51:04do

00:51:05what

00:51:05I

00:51:06strongly

00:51:06think

00:51:07he

00:51:08should

00:51:08do

00:51:09and

00:51:10what

00:51:10apparently

00:51:13other

00:51:13figures

00:51:14within

00:51:14his

00:51:14administration

00:51:15maybe

00:51:16Vance

00:51:16maybe

00:51:17others

00:51:17I

00:51:18don't

00:51:18want

00:51:18to

00:51:18guess

00:51:19too

00:51:19far

00:51:19are

00:51:20apparently

00:51:20advocating

00:51:21which

00:51:22is

00:51:22go

00:51:23with

00:51:23Witkow

00:51:24and

00:51:25come

00:51:26to

00:51:27an

00:51:27agreement

00:51:28with

00:51:28the

00:51:29Russians

00:51:29on

00:51:30that

00:51:30basis

00:51:31obviously

00:51:32the

00:51:33Ukrainians

00:51:34will

00:51:34oppose

00:51:34they

00:51:35will

00:51:35say

00:51:35no

00:51:36but

00:51:36the

00:51:37Ukrainians

00:51:38probably

00:51:42can have

00:51:44their arms

00:51:44twisted

00:51:45and they

00:51:46will

00:51:46eventually

00:51:46come

00:51:47round

00:51:47if the

00:51:48United

00:51:49States

00:51:49piles

00:51:51enough

00:51:51pressure

00:51:52on them

00:51:53very much

00:51:54like what

00:51:55happened

00:51:55with the

00:51:56peace

00:51:57agreement

00:51:57that was

00:51:58concluded

00:51:59between

00:51:59the

00:51:59United

00:52:00States

00:52:00and

00:52:02North

00:52:02Vietnam

00:52:03South

00:52:03Vietnam

00:52:04strongly

00:52:05opposed

00:52:05it

00:52:06but

00:52:06in

00:52:07the

00:52:07end

00:52:07it

00:52:09was

00:52:09left

00:52:09with

00:52:09no

00:52:10choice

00:52:10but

00:52:10to

00:52:10go

00:52:11along

00:52:11with

00:52:11it

00:52:11and

00:52:12the

00:52:12same

00:52:12by the

00:52:13way

00:52:13was

00:52:13true

00:52:13about

00:52:14the

00:52:15Korean

00:52:15armistice

00:52:16the

00:52:17South

00:52:18Korean

00:52:18government

00:52:19of

00:52:19Syngman

00:52:20Rhee

00:52:20also

00:52:21vigorously

00:52:22opposed

00:52:23that

00:52:24but the

00:52:24Americans

00:52:25put the

00:52:26pressure

00:52:26on the

00:52:26South

00:52:26Koreans

00:52:27and

00:52:28very

00:52:28reluctantly

00:52:29and

00:52:29very

00:52:30grudgingly

00:52:30the

00:52:31South

00:52:31Koreans

00:52:32had to

00:52:32accept

00:52:32it

00:52:33also

00:52:33so

00:52:34the

00:52:36Americans

00:52:36could

00:52:37do

00:52:37that

00:52:37they

00:52:38could

00:52:38adopt

00:52:39the

00:52:39Whitgolf

00:52:39plan

00:52:40but

00:52:41doing

00:52:42that

00:52:43would

00:52:43be

00:52:43a

00:52:44split

00:52:44would

00:52:45trigger

00:52:45a

00:52:46split

00:52:46within

00:52:47the

00:52:47administration

00:52:48the

00:52:49near

00:52:49con

00:52:49or

00:52:50near

00:52:50con

00:52:50inclined

00:52:51element

00:52:51Rubio

00:52:52Waltz

00:52:53Kellogg

00:52:54would be

00:52:55very

00:52:55unhappy

00:52:56one

00:52:57could

00:52:57quite

00:52:58plausibly

00:52:59see

00:53:00resignations

00:53:01and

00:53:03we

00:53:04could

00:53:04also

00:53:04see

00:53:06problems

00:53:07for the

00:53:09president

00:53:09in

00:53:10Congress

00:53:11especially

00:53:13in the

00:53:13Senate

00:53:14with some

00:53:15of the

00:53:15leading

00:53:15members

00:53:16of the

00:53:16Senate

00:53:16or

00:53:20we

00:53:21could

00:53:22see

00:53:23the

00:53:23president

00:53:24side

00:53:24with

00:53:25Kellogg

00:53:26impose

00:53:28massive

00:53:28sanctions

00:53:29on the

00:53:30Russians

00:53:30sanctions

00:53:31which

00:53:32will be

00:53:33completely

00:53:33ineffectual

00:53:34the

00:53:36latest

00:53:36tariff

00:53:38debacle

00:53:39ought

00:53:40by now

00:53:41to show

00:53:41how

00:53:42ineffective

00:53:43those

00:53:43kind of

00:53:44tariffs

00:53:44would be

00:53:45of course

00:53:46there's

00:53:47stories and

00:53:48reports of

00:53:49the United

00:53:50States

00:53:50running around

00:53:51the world

00:53:51seizing

00:53:52Russian ships

00:53:53in transit

00:53:53with oil

00:53:54doing things

00:53:56of that

00:53:56kind

00:53:56well maybe

00:53:57it could

00:53:57but of course

00:53:58that would

00:53:58be illegal

00:53:59it would

00:54:00create

00:54:00crisis

00:54:01a further

00:54:02crisis

00:54:02within the

00:54:03oil

00:54:03and energy

00:54:04markets

00:54:05the Saudis

00:54:06wouldn't be

00:54:06happy

00:54:07many other

00:54:08countries

00:54:08would be

00:54:09extremely

00:54:10unhappy

00:54:10there's a

00:54:11possibility

00:54:12that the

00:54:12Russian Navy

00:54:13might start

00:54:14intervening

00:54:15to prevent

00:54:17seizures of

00:54:18Russian ships

00:54:19we could see

00:54:20oil convoys

00:54:21perhaps

00:54:22start to

00:54:23develop

00:54:23something similar

00:54:24to what used

00:54:25to happen

00:54:25in the

00:54:26Second World

00:54:27War

00:54:27with Russian

00:54:28and American

00:54:29warships

00:54:29maybe having

00:54:30standoffs

00:54:31with each

00:54:31other

00:54:31these are

00:54:32not

00:54:32fantastic

00:54:34thoughts

00:54:34we could

00:54:36see customers

00:54:37of Russian

00:54:38oil

00:54:39China for

00:54:39example

00:54:40with its

00:54:40huge Navy

00:54:41also becoming

00:54:43involved as

00:54:44well

00:54:45after all

00:54:47China

00:54:48which is no

00:54:49longer able

00:54:50to import

00:54:50oil from

00:54:51the United

00:54:52States

00:54:52because of

00:54:54the tariffs

00:54:54and which

00:54:56even if

00:54:56those tariffs

00:54:57are relaxed

00:54:58probably

00:54:59is nervous

00:55:01henceforth

00:55:03about buying

00:55:04oil and

00:55:06liquefied

00:55:07natural gas

00:55:08from the

00:55:09United States

00:55:10now has an

00:55:11interest in

00:55:12protecting

00:55:13the import

00:55:15of Russian

00:55:17oil and

00:55:18natural gas

00:55:19into China

00:55:20so we

00:55:22can see all

00:55:23kinds of

00:55:23things like

00:55:24that happen

00:55:25other countries

00:55:26also would

00:55:27of course

00:55:27be unhappy

00:55:28too

00:55:29by the way

00:55:30the Chinese

00:55:32also no

00:55:34doubt will

00:55:34have concerns

00:55:35about the

00:55:38importance of

00:55:39maintaining the

00:55:40oil trade

00:55:40between

00:55:41themselves and

00:55:41Russia

00:55:42because

00:55:43there are

00:55:46attempts at the

00:55:46moment by the

00:55:47United States

00:55:48to prevent

00:55:50Iran's oil

00:55:51trade as

00:55:52well

00:55:52if the

00:55:53United States

00:55:54again is not

00:55:55careful

00:55:55if the Trump

00:55:56administration

00:55:56is not

00:55:57careful

00:55:57it could get

00:55:59itself into a

00:55:59disastrous

00:56:00rabbit hole

00:56:01go down a

00:56:03disastrous

00:56:03rabbit hole

00:56:04leading to

00:56:06ever-growing

00:56:07tensions

00:56:08and

00:56:09compounding

00:56:11the sense

00:56:13of crisis

00:56:13that it

00:56:15already finds

00:56:16itself in

00:56:16but if

00:56:19it tries

00:56:19to impose

00:56:20these

00:56:21sanctions

00:56:21and enforce

00:56:22them in

00:56:23that sort

00:56:24of way

00:56:24but anyway

00:56:25we could

00:56:27perhaps see

00:56:29the

00:56:30administration

00:56:30do this

00:56:31we could

00:56:33plausibly

00:56:34perhaps see

00:56:35the administration

00:56:36going back

00:56:36to Congress

00:56:37and demanding

00:56:38more weapons

00:56:39for Ukraine

00:56:40and more

00:56:41funding for

00:56:42Ukraine

00:56:42to try to

00:56:43sustain

00:56:44the Ukrainians

00:56:45this

00:56:46is not

00:56:47going to

00:56:47change

00:56:47the outcome

00:56:48of the

00:56:48war

00:56:49it is not

00:56:50going to

00:56:50strengthen

00:56:50Russia's

00:56:51resolve

00:56:51it's

00:56:52quite apart

00:56:53from the

00:56:54crisis

00:56:54as I said

00:56:55that it

00:56:55could

00:56:55create

00:56:56in the

00:56:57international

00:56:57system

00:56:58one inevitable

00:57:00effect

00:57:01that it is

00:57:02going to

00:57:02have

00:57:02is that

00:57:03it is

00:57:04going to

00:57:04consolidate

00:57:05the great

00:57:06power

00:57:06alliance

00:57:07between

00:57:08China

00:57:08and

00:57:09Russia

00:57:10which

00:57:11will

00:57:12ultimately

00:57:13undermine

00:57:14whatever

00:57:15blockade

00:57:16of China

00:57:17the United

00:57:18States

00:57:19ultimately

00:57:20might have

00:57:21in mind

00:57:22in the

00:57:23current

00:57:23standoff

00:57:24that the

00:57:24United States

00:57:25is currently

00:57:26finds itself

00:57:27in with

00:57:28China

00:57:29so

00:57:30anyway

00:57:32the United

00:57:33States

00:57:33might still

00:57:33do that

00:57:34or

00:57:36it could

00:57:37do

00:57:38something

00:57:38else

00:57:39and

00:57:40I'm

00:57:40afraid

00:57:41I think

00:57:41this is

00:57:42perhaps

00:57:42more likely

00:57:44where we

00:57:45are heading

00:57:46perhaps

00:57:49at the

00:57:51end of

00:57:51this month

00:57:52we will

00:57:53see

00:57:54further

00:57:55sanctions

00:57:55imposed

00:57:56upon

00:57:57Russia

00:57:58there will

00:58:00be no

00:58:00further

00:58:01attempt

00:58:01at least

00:58:02in the

00:58:02short term

00:58:03to pursue

00:58:04a rapprochement

00:58:05with Russia

00:58:06but

00:58:08in light

00:58:10of the

00:58:10failure

00:58:11of the

00:58:11mineral rights

00:58:12deal

00:58:12the inability

00:58:13to get

00:58:14that

00:58:14agreed

00:58:15and

00:58:16by the

00:58:17way

00:58:17with the

00:58:20rapprochement

00:58:21with Russia

00:58:22essentially

00:58:24the prospects

00:58:27of it

00:58:27lost

00:58:28and

00:58:29no

00:58:29prospect

00:58:30of

00:58:31gas

00:58:32flowing

00:58:33from Russia

00:58:33through

00:58:34American

00:58:35owned

00:58:35former

00:58:37Russian

00:58:38Soviet

00:58:38built

00:58:39pipelines

00:58:39to Europe

00:58:40across

00:58:41Ukraine

00:58:41the United

00:58:43States

00:58:43might also

00:58:43say

00:58:44look

00:58:44a plague

00:58:46on both

00:58:47your houses

00:58:48will impose

00:58:49sanctions on

00:58:50the Russians

00:58:51the Ukrainians

00:58:52are not prepared

00:58:52to sign the deal

00:58:53either

00:58:54will also

00:58:55stop

00:58:56providing

00:58:58further

00:58:59resistance

00:58:59to Ukraine

00:59:00as well

00:59:01I can

00:59:03see that

00:59:04happening

00:59:05and I

00:59:07would not

00:59:08be at all

00:59:09surprised

00:59:10if come

00:59:11late April

00:59:12May

00:59:13the end

00:59:13of April

00:59:14that is where

00:59:15we could find

00:59:16ourselves

00:59:16now

00:59:18that would not

00:59:19be the worst

00:59:20outcome

00:59:20the worst

00:59:21outcome

00:59:21would in my

00:59:23opinion

00:59:23would be

00:59:24if

00:59:24the United

00:59:25States

00:59:26went down

00:59:26the Kellogg

00:59:27route

00:59:27resumed

00:59:29support for

00:59:30Ukraine

00:59:31Trump

00:59:33would in

00:59:34that case

00:59:34find himself

00:59:35essentially

00:59:37going back

00:59:37to the

00:59:38Biden

00:59:39policies

00:59:40as I

00:59:41said

00:59:41there probably

00:59:41would be

00:59:42some support

00:59:43for them

00:59:44in Congress

00:59:44but there

00:59:45would definitely

00:59:46be a split

00:59:47with the

00:59:48MAGA movement

00:59:48if he did

00:59:50that

00:59:50I can't

00:59:52seriously

00:59:55believe

00:59:55that that

00:59:57is where

00:59:57he will

00:59:58go

00:59:58I have

01:00:01to say

01:00:02based on

01:00:03what I've

01:00:04seen over

01:00:05the last

01:00:05few weeks

01:00:06based on

01:00:08how difficult

01:00:09it is

01:00:10for Trump

01:00:12to make

01:00:13compromises

01:00:14we see

01:00:17this with

01:00:17China

01:00:18I think

01:00:21that for

01:00:21the moment

01:00:22prospects

01:00:23of a

01:00:24rapprochement

01:00:24with Russia

01:00:25are fading

01:00:26as well

01:00:27so I

01:00:29would not

01:00:29be surprised

01:00:30if we get

01:00:30this intermediate

01:00:31position

01:00:32he goes

01:00:32along with

01:00:33Kellogg

01:00:33in one

01:00:34respect

01:00:34he imposes

01:00:35more sanctions

01:00:36on the

01:00:37Russians

01:00:38and at the

01:00:39same time

01:00:40he winds

01:00:41down

01:00:41support

01:00:42for Ukraine

01:00:43he does

01:00:45in other

01:00:45words

01:00:45a bit

01:00:46of both

01:00:47people

01:00:48who cannot

01:00:49make up

01:00:49their mind

01:00:50could

01:00:50drawn in

01:00:51different

01:00:51directions

01:00:52often end

01:00:54up doing

01:00:55exactly that

01:00:56mostly in

01:00:58my experience

01:00:59to their

01:00:59detriment

01:01:00anyway there

01:01:01it is

01:01:02that is

01:01:02where I

01:01:03think we

01:01:03are at

01:01:04the moment

01:01:04with

01:01:05Russian

01:01:05American

01:01:06negotiations

01:01:07I don't

01:01:08think the

01:01:08Russians are

01:01:09in any

01:01:09mood

01:01:10to give

01:01:11ground

01:01:11and I

01:01:12don't

01:01:12believe

01:01:12they

01:01:12will

01:01:13I

01:01:13think

01:01:14that

01:01:14the

01:01:14fact

01:01:14that

01:01:15the

01:01:15meeting

01:01:15went

01:01:15on

01:01:15for

01:01:16five

01:01:16hours

01:01:16between

01:01:17Putin

01:01:18and

01:01:19Kellogg

01:01:19and the

01:01:20fact

01:01:20that

01:01:21there's

01:01:21been

01:01:21absolutely

01:01:22nothing

01:01:22from the

01:01:23Russians

01:01:23since that

01:01:25meeting

01:01:25that suggests

01:01:26that there

01:01:26was any

01:01:27movement

01:01:28and

01:01:29Peskov's

01:01:31comments

01:01:32prior to

01:01:33that

01:01:33meeting

01:01:34all of

01:01:35that points

01:01:36to the

01:01:36Russians

01:01:36digging in

01:01:37and taking

01:01:38the hard

01:01:39line

01:01:39that I

01:01:40said

01:01:40they

01:01:40would

01:01:40and

01:01:41telling

01:01:42the

01:01:42Americans

01:01:43well

01:01:44if you

01:01:45want to

01:01:46go down

01:01:46the road

01:01:46of

01:01:46sanctions

01:01:47so be

01:01:48it

01:01:48we are

01:01:49ready

01:01:49we've

01:01:50sorted

01:01:50we're

01:01:51prepared

01:01:51we will

01:01:52see this

01:01:53through

01:01:53we are

01:01:54not going

01:01:54to back

01:01:55off

01:01:55under

01:01:57any

01:01:58circumstances

01:01:58for us

01:02:00this is

01:02:00an

01:02:01existential

01:02:01issue

01:02:02so

01:02:03I think

01:02:05for the

01:02:05moment

01:02:05everything

01:02:07is stuck

01:02:08now

01:02:09as for

01:02:12the future

01:02:13if the

01:02:14president's

01:02:15intention

01:02:16is to

01:02:18go down

01:02:18the route

01:02:18of

01:02:19sanctions

01:02:19then I'm

01:02:20going to

01:02:21suggest

01:02:21that he

01:02:22makes

01:02:22absolutely

01:02:23sure

01:02:23that he

01:02:24does it

01:02:25through

01:02:25executive

01:02:26order

01:02:27not

01:02:28through

01:02:28congress

01:02:29if

01:02:31it is

01:02:33done

01:02:33through

01:02:33congress

01:02:34then the

01:02:35iron law

01:02:36of

01:02:37sanctions

01:02:38legislation

01:02:39which

01:02:40congress

01:02:42passes

01:02:43is that

01:02:45it

01:02:45becomes

01:02:46impossible

01:02:47to

01:02:48reverse

01:02:49I remember

01:02:50the enormous

01:02:51problems

01:02:52Putin has

01:02:53alluded to

01:02:53them

01:02:54in his

01:02:54speech

01:02:55to the

01:02:56industrialists

01:02:57on the

01:02:5718th of

01:02:58March

01:02:58I remember

01:03:02the enormous

01:03:04difficulty

01:03:05that

01:03:06Clinton

01:03:07and

01:03:08Obama

01:03:09had

01:03:10in trying

01:03:11to get

01:03:12congress

01:03:13to

01:03:14reverse

01:03:16the

01:03:16Jackson

01:03:17Vanek

01:03:17amendment

01:03:18imposed

01:03:19on the

01:03:19Soviet

01:03:19Union

01:03:20way back

01:03:21in the

01:03:221970s

01:03:23supposedly

01:03:24linking

01:03:25the grant

01:03:26of

01:03:27the

01:03:29grant of

01:03:30the

01:03:30Soviet

01:03:30Union

01:03:31of

01:03:31most

01:03:31favoured

01:03:31nation

01:03:32status

01:03:32something

01:03:33that the

01:03:34United

01:03:34States

01:03:34had

01:03:35previously

01:03:36committed

01:03:37itself

01:03:37to

01:03:38granting

01:03:39as part

01:03:41of the

01:03:41detente

01:03:41process

01:03:42how

01:03:44that

01:03:45amendment

01:03:47continued

01:03:48its life

01:03:49right through

01:03:50the 90s

01:03:51right through

01:03:53the 2000s

01:03:54it staggered

01:03:56on until

01:03:572012

01:03:58with great

01:04:00difficulty

01:04:01Obama

01:04:01finally

01:04:02prevailed

01:04:03on congress

01:04:04to get it

01:04:05lifted

01:04:05only for

01:04:07congress

01:04:07almost

01:04:08immediately

01:04:08to pass

01:04:09new

01:04:10sanctions

01:04:10against

01:04:11Russia

01:04:11in the

01:04:12form of

01:04:13the

01:04:13Magnitsky

01:04:13Act

01:04:14basically

01:04:15taking the

01:04:15place

01:04:16of the

01:04:16Jackson

01:04:17Vanek

01:04:17amendment

01:04:18Budin

01:04:19has alluded

01:04:19to all

01:04:20of this

01:04:20this

01:04:20sorry

01:04:21history

01:04:21in his

01:04:22speech

01:04:23to the

01:04:23industrialists

01:04:24and he's

01:04:24absolutely

01:04:24right about

01:04:25this

01:04:26if Trump

01:04:27wants to

01:04:28maintain

01:04:29freedom of

01:04:30action

01:04:30he should

01:04:31pass the

01:04:32sanctions

01:04:33by executive

01:04:34order

01:04:34and tell

01:04:36his friends

01:04:36in congress

01:04:37Lindsey

01:04:38Graham

01:04:38and the

01:04:39others

01:04:39to back

01:04:40off

01:04:41if

01:04:42they do

01:04:43move

01:04:44forward

01:04:45with

01:04:46sanctions

01:04:47legislation

01:04:48to

01:04:49enshrine

01:04:51the

01:04:52sanctions

01:04:53then he

01:04:54should make

01:04:54clear to

01:04:55them

01:04:55that he

01:04:56is

01:04:56not

01:04:58supporting

01:04:59that

01:04:59and that

01:05:00he's prepared

01:05:00if anything

01:05:01to veto

01:05:02that legislation

01:05:03which I

01:05:04think would

01:05:04kill it

01:05:04dead

01:05:05I say

01:05:07that

01:05:08because there

01:05:09is a real

01:05:09risk

01:05:10even if he

01:05:11does pass

01:05:12an executive

01:05:14order

01:05:15make an

01:05:15executive

01:05:15order

01:05:16imposing

01:05:16further

01:05:17sanctions

01:05:17on Russia

01:05:18that

01:05:19Lindsey

01:05:19Graham

01:05:20and

01:05:20company

01:05:21will

01:05:22then

01:05:23attempt

01:05:24to

01:05:24enshrine

01:05:24that

01:05:25executive

01:05:25order

01:05:26into

01:05:27legislation

01:05:28which

01:05:28as I

01:05:29said

01:05:29it

01:05:29will

01:05:29be

01:05:30all

01:05:30but

01:05:30impossible

01:05:31ever

01:05:31to

01:05:32reverse

01:05:32so

01:05:33if

01:05:37Trump

01:05:38wants to

01:05:39preserve

01:05:39at least

01:05:40some

01:05:40freedom

01:05:42of action

01:05:43for himself

01:05:43going

01:05:45forward

01:05:45both

01:05:47for himself

01:05:48and for

01:05:49future

01:05:49presidents

01:05:50he needs

01:05:51to make

01:05:51sure that

01:05:52doesn't

01:05:52happen

01:05:53but

01:05:54anyway

01:05:54I think

01:05:56that this

01:05:57shabby

01:05:58compromise

01:05:59which isn't

01:06:00going to

01:06:00satisfy

01:06:01anybody

01:06:02is probably

01:06:04where we're

01:06:05going to

01:06:05let me

01:06:07repeat

01:06:07a point

01:06:08I have

01:06:09made

01:06:09many times

01:06:10in many

01:06:11programs

01:06:12Alex

01:06:13Christopher

01:06:14and I

01:06:14on the

01:06:15Duran

01:06:15started to

01:06:17make it

01:06:17way back

01:06:18in the

01:06:20summer

01:06:21of last

01:06:23year

01:06:23before the

01:06:24election

01:06:24the biggest

01:06:26mistake

01:06:26Donald

01:06:27Trump

01:06:28could make

01:06:28would be

01:06:29to get

01:06:30drawn into

01:06:30negotiations

01:06:31to try

01:06:32to end

01:06:34the

01:06:34Ukraine

01:06:35war

01:06:35I said

01:06:36that

01:06:36this

01:06:38underestimated

01:06:39the

01:06:40irreconcilable

01:06:41differences

01:06:41between the

01:06:42Russians

01:06:42and the

01:06:43Ukrainians

01:06:44it opened

01:06:45the way

01:06:46for the

01:06:46Europeans

01:06:47to create

01:06:47endless

01:06:48trouble

01:06:49and

01:06:50it also

01:06:51opened the

01:06:52way for

01:06:52the near

01:06:52cons

01:06:53in the

01:06:53United

01:06:54States

01:06:54to make

01:06:55endless

01:06:56trouble

01:06:57unfortunately

01:06:58tempted

01:07:03by the

01:07:05promises

01:07:06that

01:07:06Kellogg

01:07:07made

01:07:08that this

01:07:09could all

01:07:10be negotiated

01:07:11and settled

01:07:12quickly

01:07:12that is the

01:07:14course he

01:07:15followed

01:07:16and

01:07:17well

01:07:18this is

01:07:19where he

01:07:20now is

01:07:21where he

01:07:23could have

01:07:23walked away

01:07:24from the

01:07:24whole conflict

01:07:25without

01:07:26suffering any

01:07:27significant

01:07:28political

01:07:28damage

01:07:29after he

01:07:30was inaugurated

01:07:31in January

01:07:33he made the

01:07:34mistake of

01:07:36trying to

01:07:36negotiate with

01:07:37the Ukrainians

01:07:38and trying to

01:07:39negotiate with

01:07:40the Russians

01:07:41and trying to

01:07:42keep the

01:07:42Europeans on

01:07:43side

01:07:44and to

01:07:45get

01:07:45Kellogg

01:07:46and

01:07:47others

01:07:48to play

01:07:48a role

01:07:49in the

01:07:50discussions

01:07:50and as a

01:07:51result he

01:07:52finds himself

01:07:53stuck

01:07:54now

01:07:55I say

01:07:57all of

01:07:57that

01:07:57there are

01:07:59as I said

01:08:00continued

01:08:00positive

01:08:01signs

01:08:01the meeting

01:08:02in Istanbul

01:08:03between the

01:08:03Americans

01:08:04and the

01:08:05Russians

01:08:06went well

01:08:07and by

01:08:08the way

01:08:09sorting out

01:08:10the diplomatic

01:08:10issues

01:08:11would be a

01:08:12good thing

01:08:12in and

01:08:13of itself

01:08:14just saying

01:08:16so hopefully

01:08:17that will not

01:08:18be jeopardized

01:08:20by any

01:08:20breakdown

01:08:21in the

01:08:22talks

01:08:22over

01:08:23Ukraine

01:08:28over the

01:08:29settlement of

01:08:30the conflict

01:08:30in Ukraine

01:08:31another

01:08:35perhaps

01:08:37positive

01:08:38sign

01:08:38is that

01:08:39Miss Brink

01:08:40the US

01:08:41ambassador

01:08:42to

01:08:43Ukraine

01:08:44has now

01:08:46left

01:08:47her post

01:08:48she was

01:08:50for those

01:08:51who don't

01:08:51know

01:08:52a protégé

01:08:53of Victoria

01:08:54Newland

01:08:55and was

01:08:56somebody who

01:08:57very much

01:08:58followed

01:08:59Victoria

01:09:00Newland's

01:09:01policies

01:09:01on the

01:09:02Ukraine

01:09:02conflict

01:09:03which by

01:09:04the way

01:09:04didn't

01:09:04prevent

01:09:05conflicts

01:09:06between

01:09:07her

01:09:07and the

01:09:08Ukrainian

01:09:08authorities

01:09:09from time

01:09:10to time

01:09:10but

01:09:11hopefully

01:09:12perhaps

01:09:13possibly

01:09:14a new

01:09:16ambassador

01:09:16a rather

01:09:17more realist

01:09:18ambassador

01:09:19might take

01:09:19her place

01:09:20who knows

01:09:21but

01:09:22in general

01:09:24I have to

01:09:25say that

01:09:26I get the

01:09:27sense

01:09:27that these

01:09:28negotiations

01:09:28are not

01:09:30going well

01:09:30that

01:09:32Trump's

01:09:34decision

01:09:36to go

01:09:38down the

01:09:39route of

01:09:39negotiations

01:09:40was a

01:09:41major mistake

01:09:42and

01:09:43well

01:09:44we now

01:09:46see

01:09:46the results

01:09:48well

01:09:49anyway

01:09:50let's

01:09:51let's see

01:09:52what happens

01:09:52over the

01:09:53next couple

01:09:53of days

01:09:54but as

01:09:55of this

01:09:55morning

01:09:56the

01:09:59results

01:10:00the

01:10:00situation

01:10:01does not

01:10:03look promising

01:10:03in the

01:10:05meantime

01:10:06the

01:10:07Russian

01:10:08offensive

01:10:08continues to

01:10:09gain momentum

01:10:11now as

01:10:12always happens

01:10:12with Russian

01:10:13offensives

01:10:14it generally

01:10:15starts slow

01:10:16and gradually

01:10:17builds up

01:10:18the opposite

01:10:20by the way

01:10:20of American

01:10:21offensives

01:10:22there was

01:10:24on that

01:10:25topic

01:10:26a

01:10:27article

01:10:28in the

01:10:28Daily

01:10:28Telegraph

01:10:29which set

01:10:31out

01:10:32which made

01:10:34the claim

01:10:34that the

01:10:35Russian

01:10:35offensive

01:10:36would not

01:10:37gain

01:10:38any

01:10:39significant

01:10:39territory

01:10:40despite their

01:10:41overwhelming

01:10:42superiority

01:10:43in numbers

01:10:44which by

01:10:45the way

01:10:45is

01:10:45constantly

01:10:46overstated

01:10:47even now

01:10:48the Russians

01:10:49are unlikely

01:10:50to have

01:10:50an overwhelming

01:10:52superiority

01:10:52in manpower

01:10:54in Ukraine

01:10:55though the

01:10:56difference

01:10:56grows

01:10:57probably

01:10:58every month

01:11:00the gap

01:11:02between

01:11:03the Russians

01:11:03and the

01:11:04Ukrainians

01:11:05increases

01:11:06every month

01:11:06but

01:11:07anyway

01:11:08the Daily

01:11:10Telegraph

01:11:11says that

01:11:11despite the

01:11:12overwhelming

01:11:13superiority

01:11:14numbers

01:11:15that the

01:11:15Russians

01:11:15have

01:11:16they're so

01:11:17incompetent

01:11:18so

01:11:18disorganized

01:11:19their

01:11:20troops

01:11:21are so

01:11:21untrained

01:11:22they only

01:11:23have a

01:11:23couple of

01:11:23days

01:11:24training

01:11:24and all

01:11:25of that

01:11:25it again

01:11:26by the

01:11:27way

01:11:27conflates

01:11:28the

01:11:28160

01:11:30thousand

01:11:32conscript

01:11:34spring

01:11:35call up

01:11:36which

01:11:39happens

01:11:40this time

01:11:40every year

01:11:41in Russia

01:11:42in Russia

01:11:42with

01:11:43mobilization

01:11:44for the

01:11:45Ukraine

01:11:47for the

01:11:47conflict

01:11:47in Ukraine

01:11:48I've

01:11:49repeatedly

01:11:50pointed out

01:11:50that the

01:11:51two are

01:11:51unrelated

01:11:52to each

01:11:53other

01:11:53and that

01:11:54the

01:11:55forces

01:11:56the men

01:11:57the manpower

01:11:58that we see

01:11:58building up

01:11:59in Ukraine

01:12:00is made

01:12:02up of

01:12:02people who

01:12:03take out

01:12:04three year

01:12:04contracts

01:12:05with the

01:12:06Russian

01:12:06military

01:12:07and who

01:12:08grow through

01:12:09a prolonged

01:12:10period of

01:12:10training

01:12:11which by

01:12:12the way

01:12:12I understand

01:12:13in many

01:12:13cases can

01:12:14be up to

01:12:15a year

01:12:15long

01:12:16so just

01:12:17saying

01:12:17but anyway

01:12:18it sublimely

01:12:20this article

01:12:21in the

01:12:21Telegraph

01:12:22sublimely

01:12:22claims

01:12:24that the

01:12:26prospect

01:12:29of this

01:12:30offensive

01:12:30is poor

01:12:31that it

01:12:31will not

01:12:31gain

01:12:32any

01:12:32significant

01:12:33ground

01:12:34now

01:12:35I remember

01:12:36sometime

01:12:37in late

01:12:38summer

01:12:38early autumn

01:12:39of last

01:12:40year

01:12:40the Daily

01:12:41Telegraph

01:12:42publishing

01:12:42a very

01:12:42similar

01:12:43article

01:12:43about the

01:12:45then

01:12:45ongoing

01:12:46Russian

01:12:46offensive

01:12:47it said

01:12:48that

01:12:48this

01:12:48offensive

01:12:49would not

01:12:49gain any

01:12:50significant

01:12:51ground

01:12:51it had

01:12:51even

01:12:51failed

01:12:52I remember

01:12:53this article

01:12:53said it

01:12:54had actually

01:12:55failed

01:12:55that the

01:12:56Russians

01:12:56had failed

01:12:57to achieve

01:12:57any

01:12:58significant

01:12:59breakthroughs

01:13:00and if

01:13:00memory serves

01:13:01me rightly

01:13:02what then

01:13:04followed

01:13:04was that

01:13:05in quick

01:13:05succession

01:13:06Vugledar

01:13:08Selidovo

01:13:11Kurakovo

01:13:12all sorts

01:13:12of other

01:13:13important

01:13:14places

01:13:14fell

01:13:16like nine

01:13:17pins

01:13:18to the

01:13:19Russians

01:13:19one

01:13:20after

01:13:21another

01:13:21I am

01:13:24confident

01:13:25that this

01:13:27offensive

01:13:28which has

01:13:29started

01:13:30much more

01:13:31powerfully

01:13:31than the

01:13:332024

01:13:34offensive

01:13:36did

01:13:36will gain

01:13:37significantly

01:13:38more ground

01:13:39than this

01:13:40now

01:13:41I'm going

01:13:42to just

01:13:42now do

01:13:43a very

01:13:44short

01:13:44summary

01:13:45of

01:13:46latest

01:13:47military

01:13:48developments

01:13:50briefly

01:13:52there's been

01:13:55more information

01:13:56from

01:13:56Chasov Yar

01:13:57it looks

01:13:59as if

01:13:59the Russians

01:14:00have gained

01:14:01more

01:14:02ground

01:14:03in the

01:14:04central

01:14:05area

01:14:06the area

01:14:06of the

01:14:06highlight

01:14:07high-rise

01:14:08buildings

01:14:08at the

01:14:08very

01:14:09centre

01:14:10of Chasov Yar

01:14:11this is

01:14:12sometimes

01:14:12referred to

01:14:13as the

01:14:13citadel

01:14:14of the

01:14:15city

01:14:15of the

01:14:16town

01:14:16rather

01:14:17there continue

01:14:21to be

01:14:21many reports

01:14:22which I think

01:14:23are probably

01:14:24true

01:14:24that the

01:14:24Ukrainians

01:14:25are now

01:14:26reluctantly

01:14:27thinking

01:14:29about

01:14:29retreating

01:14:30from

01:14:30Chasov Yar

01:14:31it does

01:14:32look as if

01:14:33this battle

01:14:34is in

01:14:35its last

01:14:36days

01:14:36it could

01:14:37be ended

01:14:37sometime

01:14:38this month

01:14:39I personally

01:14:40think it

01:14:41highly likely

01:14:42it will end

01:14:43finally

01:14:44this time

01:14:45this month

01:14:46now

01:14:47in the

01:14:49area of

01:14:49Toretsk

01:14:50there was

01:14:52about three

01:14:52days ago

01:14:53a Russian

01:14:54advance

01:14:56north of

01:14:56Toretsk

01:14:57it captured

01:14:58a village

01:14:59called

01:15:00Filipovka

01:15:00I thought

01:15:02that it

01:15:02was some

01:15:02kind of

01:15:03a raid

01:15:03but it

01:15:04seems that

01:15:04it was

01:15:05not

01:15:05and it

01:15:06looks as

01:15:07if the

01:15:07Russians

01:15:07have advanced

01:15:08rapidly

01:15:09along the

01:15:10main

01:15:10highway

01:15:10and are

01:15:11now

01:15:12literally

01:15:12on the

01:15:13southern

01:15:14fringes

01:15:15of the

01:15:16town of

01:15:17Konstantinovka

01:15:18the city

01:15:20of Konstantinovka

01:15:21which is

01:15:21about 70,000

01:15:22people

01:15:23before the

01:15:23wall

01:15:24which

01:15:25will be

01:15:26their main

01:15:26objective

01:15:27after the

01:15:28battle

01:15:29of Chasovya

01:15:30is ended

01:15:33and in

01:15:34the meantime

01:15:35the Russians

01:15:37are also

01:15:38advancing

01:15:39east of

01:15:40this

01:15:40sudden

01:15:41advance

01:15:42towards

01:15:43the

01:15:43southern

01:15:44outskirts

01:15:45of

01:15:46Konstantinovka

01:15:47a little

01:15:48to my

01:15:49surprise

01:15:49the Russians

01:15:50have been

01:15:50able to

01:15:50maintain

01:15:51their

01:15:51positions

01:15:51in this

01:15:52area

01:15:53anyway

01:15:53the Russians

01:15:54are advancing

01:15:55to the

01:15:56east of

01:15:58this

01:15:59and it

01:15:59looks as if

01:16:00this entire

01:16:01pocket

01:16:01is starting

01:16:02to be

01:16:03squeezed

01:16:03I saw

01:16:05an article

01:16:06in

01:16:06Redovka

01:16:07which by

01:16:08the way

01:16:09has just

01:16:09been sanctioned

01:16:10by Zelensky

01:16:11just to say

01:16:12Russian

01:16:13nationalist

01:16:14newspaper

01:16:14just to

01:16:15repeat

01:16:15but one

01:16:17very well

01:16:17informed

01:16:18about

01:16:18battlefield

01:16:19developments

01:16:20which

01:16:21also said

01:16:22that the

01:16:23Russians

01:16:24are working

01:16:25towards

01:16:25creating

01:16:26an

01:16:27encirclement

01:16:28of the

01:16:29Ukrainian

01:16:30forces

01:16:30south of

01:16:31Konstantinovka

01:16:32and one

01:16:33could see

01:16:34how this

01:16:34is gradually

01:16:35playing out

01:16:36anyway

01:16:37that's

01:16:38that's

01:16:39there

01:16:39the Russians

01:16:41also

01:16:41are advancing

01:16:43west

01:16:44or in

01:16:46the area

01:16:46slightly

01:16:47to the

01:16:47west

01:16:47of Turetsk

01:16:48there's

01:16:49a whole

01:16:49string

01:16:50of

01:16:50villages

01:16:51Novobakmutivka

01:16:52Alexandropil

01:16:54Pantelimov

01:16:55Pantelimonivka

01:16:57immediately

01:16:59to the

01:16:59west

01:17:00of the

01:17:01H20

01:17:02highway

01:17:03which the

01:17:04Russians

01:17:04have now

01:17:04captured

01:17:05again

01:17:06I'm a bit

01:17:06surprised

01:17:07that the

01:17:08Ukrainians

01:17:09are defending

01:17:10these places

01:17:11which now

01:17:11lie deep

01:17:13inside

01:17:14a salient

01:17:16but then

01:17:17the Ukrainians

01:17:17never show

01:17:18much desire

01:17:20to

01:17:20withdraw

01:17:22from these

01:17:23places

01:17:23and

01:17:24the Russians

01:17:26have also

01:17:27resumed

01:17:28a little

01:17:29to the

01:17:29west

01:17:30their advance

01:17:32northward

01:17:34of

01:17:35Ocheretinov

01:17:36that village

01:17:36which they

01:17:37captured

01:17:37in the

01:17:38spring of

01:17:39last

01:17:39year

01:17:41the

01:17:42capture

01:17:43of which

01:17:44opened the

01:17:45way for

01:17:46the Russian

01:17:46advance

01:17:47westwards

01:17:47towards

01:17:48Pokrovsk

01:17:49and the

01:17:51Russians

01:17:51have now

01:17:51pushed

01:17:52north

01:17:52from

01:17:54Arhangelskoje

01:17:56which they

01:17:57captured

01:17:57back in the

01:17:59spring of

01:17:59last year

01:18:00they've now

01:18:01apparently

01:18:01captured a

01:18:02village called

01:18:02Kalinovo

01:18:04and it

01:18:06looks like

01:18:06they're going

01:18:07to push

01:18:07further north

01:18:08towards a

01:18:09village called

01:18:09Stara

01:18:10Nikolaivka

01:18:12anyway

01:18:13one way or

01:18:14the other

01:18:14the Russians

01:18:15seem to be

01:18:16moving quite

01:18:16fast

01:18:17in this

01:18:19area

01:18:19and it's

01:18:20likely

01:18:21my guess

01:18:22is that

01:18:23sometime

01:18:23in May

01:18:24June

01:18:24the major

01:18:25battle

01:18:26for

01:18:27Konstantinovka

01:18:28itself

01:18:29will probably

01:18:30begin

01:18:31be interesting

01:18:32to see

01:18:33how well

01:18:34the Ukrainians

01:18:36defended

01:18:37as I've

01:18:40said

01:18:40on several

01:18:42occasions

01:18:42this entire

01:18:44area

01:18:45the entire

01:18:46area

01:18:47of the

01:18:49three

01:18:49Donbass

01:18:50cities

01:18:50Slavyansk

01:18:52Kramatorsk

01:18:53and

01:18:54Konstantinovka

01:18:56looks

01:18:57fragile

01:18:58because the

01:19:00communications

01:19:00to these

01:19:01cities

01:19:01the transport

01:19:02links to

01:19:02these cities

01:19:03look as if

01:19:04they are

01:19:06vulnerable

01:19:06to

01:19:08interference

01:19:09to capture

01:19:10by the

01:19:11Russians

01:19:11and there

01:19:12doesn't seem

01:19:12to be

01:19:13much

01:19:14strategic

01:19:14depth

01:19:15for the

01:19:17Ukrainian

01:19:17forces

01:19:18west of

01:19:19them

01:19:20anyway

01:19:21that's

01:19:21one area

01:19:22there's also

01:19:23been more

01:19:25reports that

01:19:26the Russians

01:19:26are now

01:19:27moving

01:19:27quite rapidly

01:19:29towards

01:19:31Novopavlovka

01:19:32this is

01:19:33west of

01:19:34Selidovo

01:19:34this is an

01:19:35important village

01:19:36I believe

01:19:37it's in

01:19:37Dnepro region

01:19:38the Russians

01:19:40haven't yet

01:19:41crossed into

01:19:41Dnepro region

01:19:42but they seem

01:19:43to be moving

01:19:43towards

01:19:44Novopavlovka

01:19:45which is

01:19:46a major

01:19:47logistics

01:19:48area

01:19:50for the

01:19:51Russians

01:19:51and

01:19:52in the

01:19:53meantime

01:19:54they are

01:19:55advancing

01:19:56from

01:19:58Velikaya

01:19:58Novosilka

01:19:59north

01:20:01westwards

01:20:02towards

01:20:04a village

01:20:05called

01:20:05Shevchenko

01:20:06now

01:20:07this

01:20:08particular

01:20:08village

01:20:09which

01:20:09apparently

01:20:09the

01:20:10Russians

01:20:10reached

01:20:11yesterday

01:20:11and are

01:20:12about to

01:20:13attack

01:20:13this

01:20:14is

01:20:15apparently

01:20:15the

01:20:16village

01:20:16where the

01:20:17famous

01:20:17lithium

01:20:17deposit

01:20:18is actually

01:20:19located

01:20:20not the

01:20:21other village

01:20:22of

01:20:23Shevchenko

01:20:24which lies

01:20:24a significant

01:20:25distance

01:20:26to the

01:20:27east

01:20:27and which

01:20:28the Russians

01:20:29captured

01:20:29in the

01:20:30fighting

01:20:31last year

01:20:31anyway

01:20:32the Russians

01:20:33have now

01:20:34reached

01:20:34this

01:20:34Shevchenko

01:20:35there's

01:20:35apparently

01:20:36fighting

01:20:36going on

01:20:37literally

01:20:38above

01:20:39the

01:20:39lithium

01:20:39deposit

01:20:40itself

01:20:41there's

01:20:43assumptions

01:20:43that the

01:20:44Russians

01:20:44will probably

01:20:45capture

01:20:46Shevchenko

01:20:46over the

01:20:47course of

01:20:48today

01:20:48who knows

01:20:50we'll see

01:20:50and

01:20:52anyway

01:20:52overall

01:20:53the Russians

01:20:53continue

01:20:54to move

01:20:55and

01:20:56further

01:20:56north

01:20:57in the

01:20:58Kupiansk

01:20:59area

01:21:00the Russians

01:21:00have

01:21:01apparently

01:21:03resumed

01:21:04their advance

01:21:05in the

01:21:05village of

01:21:06Kamyenka

01:21:08in the

01:21:10northern

01:21:10Kupiansk

01:21:11area

01:21:11and

01:21:12apparently

01:21:14an attempt

01:21:14by the

01:21:14Ukrainians

01:21:15to hold

01:21:15them back

01:21:16there

01:21:16has slowed

01:21:19their advance

01:21:19by redeploying

01:21:20new troops

01:21:21has slowed

01:21:21their advance

01:21:22but has not

01:21:23stopped it

01:21:24and

01:21:24the Russian

01:21:26offensive

01:21:26has resumed

01:21:28and

01:21:29as I

01:21:30discussed

01:21:30in my

01:21:31programme

01:21:31yesterday

01:21:32the Russians

01:21:33are now

01:21:33deploying

01:21:34armoured

01:21:34vehicles

01:21:35in this

01:21:36area

01:21:37which will

01:21:38probably

01:21:38accelerate

01:21:39their advance

01:21:40to repeat

01:21:42again

01:21:43every day

01:21:45now

01:21:45we get

01:21:46reports of

01:21:47villages

01:21:48and settlements

01:21:49being captured

01:21:50by the

01:21:51Russians

01:21:51across

01:21:53the entire

01:21:54contact

01:21:55line

01:21:56I can

01:21:57remember

01:21:57long

01:21:58stretches

01:21:59of the

01:21:59war

01:21:59before

01:22:00where

01:22:01one would

01:22:03get no

01:22:03reports

01:22:04of any

01:22:04village

01:22:05or

01:22:05settlement

01:22:06changing

01:22:06hands

01:22:07every day

01:22:08the Russians

01:22:09capture

01:22:09some new

01:22:10place

01:22:11yes

01:22:12yes

01:22:12one can

01:22:13claim

01:22:14as people

01:22:15like

01:22:16general

01:22:17Cavoli

01:22:17and

01:22:19perhaps

01:22:20general

01:22:20Kellogg

01:22:21and

01:22:22the people

01:22:22who write

01:22:23for the

01:22:23daily

01:22:23telegraph

01:22:24do

01:22:25that

01:22:25none

01:22:26of these

01:22:26places

01:22:27is important

01:22:28in itself

01:22:30but the

01:22:31point is

01:22:32that

01:22:33over time

01:22:34the effect

01:22:35becomes

01:22:36cumulative

01:22:37and the

01:22:38more of

01:22:38these

01:22:38places

01:22:39you

01:22:39capture

01:22:40the

01:22:40more

01:22:41you

01:22:41restrict

01:22:41Ukraine's

01:22:42operational

01:22:43space

01:22:44in this

01:22:46area

01:22:46of

01:22:46Donbass

01:22:47it's

01:22:48like

01:22:48in a

01:22:49game

01:22:50of

01:22:50drafts

01:22:51or chess

01:22:52gaining

01:22:53more and

01:22:54more squares

01:22:55on the

01:22:55board

01:22:56and that

01:22:57is exactly

01:22:57what the

01:22:58Russians

01:22:59are doing

01:23:00so anyway

01:23:01the war

01:23:01continues

01:23:02and the

01:23:03offensive

01:23:04the Russian

01:23:05offensive

01:23:06continues

01:23:07and I

01:23:08see no

01:23:09reason why

01:23:10the Russians

01:23:10would want

01:23:11to stop

01:23:12it

01:23:12as my

01:23:13source

01:23:14the source

01:23:15who informed

01:23:16me yesterday

01:23:17about the

01:23:19discussions

01:23:20in the

01:23:21Duma

01:23:21about how

01:23:23some people

01:23:24in Moscow

01:23:25see the

01:23:27tariffs

01:23:28that the

01:23:29United States

01:23:30has

01:23:31announced

01:23:32as basically

01:23:33preparing

01:23:34the US

01:23:35for a

01:23:36transition

01:23:37to a

01:23:38war

01:23:38situation

01:23:39anyway

01:23:41apparently

01:23:42as these

01:23:42sources

01:23:42are all

01:23:43as these

01:23:44the source

01:23:44pointed out

01:23:45to me

01:23:45all the

01:23:46pieces

01:23:47for a

01:23:48major

01:23:48Russian

01:23:49offensive

01:23:49are in

01:23:50place

01:23:51all that

01:23:52remains

01:23:52are for

01:23:53the

01:23:53Oreshniks

01:23:54to be

01:23:55assembled

01:23:56in a

01:23:57critical

01:23:57mass

01:23:58and to

01:23:58be

01:23:59launched

01:24:00on the

01:24:00battlefields

01:24:01and that

01:24:02will probably

01:24:03happen

01:24:03around

01:24:05mid-summer

01:24:07anyway

01:24:08when the

01:24:09offensive is

01:24:10likely to be

01:24:11in full

01:24:12force

01:24:12so anyway

01:24:13there we are

01:24:14that is the

01:24:15military situation

01:24:16in Ukraine

01:24:17today

01:24:19so

01:24:20a stalemate

01:24:25in the

01:24:26negotiations

01:24:27but no

01:24:31such

01:24:31stalemate

01:24:32in the

01:24:34war

01:24:34and a

01:24:37general

01:24:38crisis

01:24:38in the

01:24:40meantime

01:24:41in the

01:24:41financial

01:24:42markets

01:24:43with more

01:24:44and more

01:24:44doubts

01:24:45being

01:24:45expressed

01:24:46around the

01:24:48world

01:24:48about

01:24:49whether

01:24:50US

01:24:50economic

01:24:52primacy

01:24:53the

01:24:55hegemonic

01:24:56system

01:24:57that we

01:24:58have become

01:24:58so used

01:24:59to

01:24:59with the

01:25:00United

01:25:00States

01:25:01has

01:25:02any

01:25:03future

01:25:03anymore

01:25:04well

01:25:06all of

01:25:09this

01:25:11crisis

01:25:11that we

01:25:11are seeing

01:25:12could in

01:25:13my opinion

01:25:14have been

01:25:14avoided

01:25:15had

01:25:16what an

01:25:18Indian

01:25:19diplomat

01:25:20once said

01:25:21to me

01:25:22in a

01:25:25program

01:25:25which we

01:25:26did on

01:25:27the

01:25:27Duran

01:25:27Glen

01:25:28Deeson

01:25:28and myself

01:25:29he said

01:25:30that the

01:25:30Indian

01:25:30government

01:25:31had hoped

01:25:32that the

01:25:33transition

01:25:34from

01:25:35unipolarity

01:25:36to

01:25:37multipolarity

01:25:38could have

01:25:40been

01:25:40negotiated

01:25:42but it

01:25:44wasn't

01:25:45negotiated

01:25:45the

01:25:46opportunity

01:25:47to do

01:25:48so

01:25:48was lost

01:25:49and

01:25:51inevitably

01:25:52without

01:25:54that

01:25:55negotiation

01:25:55it was

01:25:57going to

01:25:57end

01:25:57in

01:25:58war

01:25:59and

01:26:00crisis

01:26:01and

01:26:03in

01:26:03Ukraine

01:26:03we

01:26:05have

01:26:05had

01:26:05the

01:26:06war

01:26:06and

01:26:07in

01:26:07the

01:26:07financial

01:26:08markets

01:26:09now

01:26:09we

01:26:10have

01:26:11the

01:26:11crisis

01:26:11on

01:26:14the

01:26:14topic

01:26:15of

01:26:16the

01:26:16war

01:26:16the

01:26:17London

01:26:17Times

01:26:18has

01:26:19now

01:26:19published

01:26:19a

01:26:19long

01:26:20article

01:26:21clearly

01:26:22complimenting

01:26:23the article

01:26:23in the

01:26:24New York

01:26:24Times

01:26:24that

01:26:25appeared

01:26:26about

01:26:26a week

01:26:26ago

01:26:27the

01:26:27article

01:26:27in the

01:26:28New

01:26:28York

01:26:28Times

01:26:28spoke

01:26:29about

01:26:29the

01:26:29enormous

01:26:30role

01:26:31that

01:26:32the

01:26:32United

01:26:33States

01:26:33has

01:26:34played

01:26:34in

01:26:36the

01:26:36war

01:26:36in

01:26:37Ukraine

01:26:37the

01:26:38extent

01:26:39to

01:26:39which

01:26:39that

01:26:39war

01:26:40was

01:26:41actually

01:26:43an

01:26:44American

01:26:44war

01:26:45the

01:26:46Ukrainians

01:26:47provided

01:26:47the

01:26:48foot

01:26:48soldiers

01:26:48but the

01:26:49Americans

01:26:50provided

01:26:50everything

01:26:52else

01:26:52someone

01:26:53in

01:26:54London

01:26:54clearly

01:26:55was

01:26:55unhappy

01:26:56that

01:26:56the

01:26:56Americans

01:26:56were

01:26:57giving

01:26:57themselves

01:26:57all

01:26:58the

01:26:58credit

01:26:58so

01:26:59an

01:26:59article

01:27:00appeared

01:27:00in the

01:27:01London

01:27:01Times

01:27:02giving

01:27:02the

01:27:03British

01:27:04their

01:27:04share

01:27:05of

01:27:05the

01:27:06credit

01:27:06I'm

01:27:07not

01:27:07going to

01:27:07waste

01:27:07time

01:27:08with the

01:27:08article

01:27:09again

01:27:09it

01:27:09shows

01:27:10the

01:27:11extent

01:27:11to which

01:27:11the

01:27:12British

01:27:12appear to

01:27:13have

01:27:13lived

01:27:13in

01:27:13their

01:27:13own

01:27:14bubble

01:27:15of

01:27:15illusion

01:27:16about

01:27:17the

01:27:17conflict

01:27:18in

01:27:19Ukraine

01:27:19it

01:27:20shows

01:27:21by the

01:27:21way

01:27:21that

01:27:22they

01:27:22absolutely

01:27:23did

01:27:23believe

01:27:24in

01:27:24the

01:27:25run

01:27:25up

01:27:25to

01:27:26Ukraine's

01:27:27summer

01:27:282023

01:27:29offensive

01:27:30that

01:27:31Ukraine

01:27:33would win

01:27:34the war

01:27:34utterly

01:27:36delusional

01:27:36but they

01:27:37generally

01:27:38believed

01:27:38it

01:27:39it

01:27:40I

01:27:41notice

01:27:42says

01:27:43absolutely

01:27:44nothing

01:27:44about the

01:27:45disastrous

01:27:46Kinky

01:27:47operation

01:27:47the

01:27:48attempt

01:27:49in

01:27:49the

01:27:49autumn

01:27:50of

01:27:502023

01:27:51to

01:27:52renew

01:27:52the

01:27:52summer

01:27:532023

01:27:54offensive

01:27:54by

01:27:55launching

01:27:55a

01:27:56vast

01:27:57amphibious

01:27:58landing

01:27:58across

01:28:00the

01:28:00Dnieper

01:28:01into

01:28:02eastern

01:28:03Russian

01:28:04controlled

01:28:05Kherson

01:28:06region

01:28:06and advance

01:28:08south

01:28:08to

01:28:09Crimea

01:28:09defeating

01:28:10the

01:28:11Russians

01:28:11that

01:28:12plan

01:28:12apparently

01:28:13hatched

01:28:13by the

01:28:14British

01:28:14ending

01:28:15in

01:28:15complete

01:28:16disastrous

01:28:17calamitous

01:28:19failure

01:28:19this article

01:28:20has to

01:28:21say

01:28:21nothing

01:28:21says

01:28:22nothing

01:28:22about

01:28:23it

01:28:23anyway

01:28:24there we

01:28:25are

01:28:25that is

01:28:26the

01:28:27times

01:28:27maybe I

01:28:28will say

01:28:28a bit

01:28:28more about

01:28:29this article

01:28:29in my

01:28:30program

01:28:31tomorrow

01:28:31but

01:28:32tomorrow

01:28:32I do

01:28:33hope

01:28:33finally

01:28:34to return

01:28:35to the

01:28:35topic

01:28:36of the

01:28:36Middle

01:28:36East

01:28:37to the

01:28:38negotiations

01:28:39between

01:28:39Iran

01:28:40and the

01:28:41United

01:28:41States

01:28:42which

01:28:43I fear

01:28:44are

01:28:45also

01:28:45going

01:28:46to

01:28:46fail

01:28:46leading

01:28:47the

01:28:48United

01:28:48States

01:28:48into

01:28:49yet

01:28:50another

01:28:50war

01:28:50that's

01:28:52this is

01:28:52where I

01:28:53finish

01:28:53today's

01:28:54program

01:28:54more

01:28:55from me

01:28:55soon

01:28:55let me

01:28:56remind you

01:28:57again

01:28:57you can

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01:28:58on our

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01:29:14and in

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01:29:15if you

01:29:16like this

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01:29:17please

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01:29:22check your

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01:29:23to this

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01:29:26take the

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🚨 Putin REJECTS US Ultimatum on Ukraine – Witkoff: "US Must Accept Moscow’s Terms" | Kellogg Backs Starmer 🇷🇺⚡ | Forbidden News

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