'Mind your risk.'
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00:00I think everybody should be focusing on what's going on in Washington because they have an
00:04impact on the markets, probably more so than most of us want to admit. But in reality,
00:12we can't predict politicians anymore than we can predict markets. So it's something that we're
00:15going to have to take day by day. And I think in this type of environment, the goal is to
00:21not lose your shirt. So I don't think this is the time to be swinging for the fence in any asset
00:24class or any investment strategy. I think the idea is to rein it in, mind our risk,
00:30and then proceed accordingly. We don't know what we don't know. So we have to assume that
00:36whatever market we're trading or what we're getting involved in, we have to assume that
00:40the worst is going to happen. So we prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And I think
00:43that's the only advice I can give. We've never really been in this situation before. Obviously,
00:50this is Trump 2.0. In the first administration, there were some curveballs and some tariffs. We
00:54learned some lessons. But the reality is this is a much bigger and bolder agenda. And so,
01:02again, we just have to take it day by day and make sure that we're paying attention to risk,
01:06not reward. The original thought was when Trump was elected in November, a lot of the markets
01:11reacted. We called it the Trump trade. We saw interest rates go up as treasuries went down.
01:17We saw a lot of commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, live cattle, even, and even some of
01:24the grains rallied because the idea was these tariffs were going to cause inflation. But
01:28as we're getting closer to the final innings of the tariff discussion, I think that a lot of
01:33markets have kind of come to the conclusion that maybe the tariffs might be deflationary,
01:38not because of what individual tariffs do to particular products, but because of the
01:44impact as a whole. I mean, it takes a lot of exuberance out of the speculative side of some
01:50of the risk assets, for example, stocks. A lot of our economy is built on the wealth effect. A lot
01:56of it is kind of an animal spirit, so to speak. So when you see assets like stocks selling off
02:02pretty sharply, it makes people feel less poor, whether they really are or not is a whole different
02:07question. But if you feel less poor, you spend less money, and it rolls its way through the
02:11economy and slows things down a little bit.