Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Well, no April Fool's joke, we've got a snowstorm for much of Minnesota, the northern half at least.
00:06While the Twin Cities will be spared the heaviest snow, we are going to be looking at a sloppy mess
00:11and then spring is back next week. But first we got to get through this storm, we break it all down.
00:15So here we are, April 1st, it was a very active March of course, way more active than the winter
00:32pattern was and so far at least, April's starting off where March left off. We have another sloppy
00:38storm just 48 hours after the last one and it is going to bring a lot of moisture, most importantly
00:45to the state. We are still in a drought for the majority of Minnesota, so any moisture is welcome
00:50even if it is a little bit annoying. The snow is really spreading pretty quickly here across much
00:56of the state right now. A lot of what you're seeing though is not quite reaching the ground
01:01just yet. The radar returns, remember, hit things at an angle so we see what's happening aloft
01:09first. But looking at some of the observations right now, while it is dry in the Twin Cities,
01:14we're seeing kind of a mixed picture already playing out to the west. Most places are reporting
01:18snow, those are the two purplish stars you see being reported across much of west central and
01:24southwestern Minnesota. But there are some spots reporting rain, that is out around Hutchinson
01:31and just west of the Twin Cities. And as this moves into the metro, we probably are going to
01:35see a mix of rain and snow as temperatures are going up. 38 here, 41 in Red Wing as of lunchtime.
01:43So that's what's going on with the moisture right now. If we look at the models,
01:49put on the high resolution rapid refresh model because, in case you're wondering why I use that
01:54a lot, it's in a lot of meteorologists because it updates every hour. It doesn't mean it's more
01:59accurate necessarily, it is pretty pretty accurate though, but it is incorporating new data every
02:04hour so that does make it a little bit more reliable once things are in play already. So
02:10this is what it has as of noon and matches pretty well with what we're seeing with observations.
02:15Snow off to the west and then kind of rain on the eastern edge and notice what happens
02:20as the moisture continues to fill in and expand. This is 4 p.m., 5 p.m. We're looking at rain in
02:25the metro, at least on this model, in the evening but I want you to see what happens pretty quickly
02:30here. This is 7 p.m., 8, 9, 10, 11. We get a shot of heavy snow here so that rain will quickly turn
02:40over snow. We call this dynamic cooling which means there's just so much vertical lift that
02:44you can actually cool the column of air to the point where it turns over to snow and this coincides
02:50with of course reaching nightfall when temperatures are dropping anyway. It's just easier to get snow
02:55to accumulate at night this time of year because, I've said this before, but even in a cloudy day
03:01you're getting solar insulation. The only time you're not getting sunlight is if it's pitch dark
03:06which doesn't happen except at night and this time of year that sun is just way stronger than
03:12it is in the middle of winter so that's why especially any paved surfaces, we saw this on
03:16Sunday, you're not going to get anything to stick because even a tenth of that sunlight getting
03:21through the clouds is enough to keep those roadways warm. So for the Twin Cities, this whole system
03:26really, our best window of snowfall is going to be that evening shot between 8 and probably 11 p.m.
03:33Quick shot of heavy snow could give us a quick inch or two of slush and then that area moves
03:39north and just continues to dump snow on northern Minnesota and then you can see this is 3 a.m.
03:434 a.m. We turn back to rain here in the Twin Cities in southern Minnesota as warmer air gets drawn
03:49into the system so that's what's going to be happening as far as that goes because right now
03:54we've got, these are looking at temperatures about 4,000 feet up, it's the 850 millibar pressure
04:00level. We measure height by pressure generally in meteorology because the height at which certain
04:08air pressures and temperatures occur changes depending on the air mass to make a long story
04:12short and you can see that this is all sub-zero air a lot. This is in degrees Celsius so all the
04:18grayish green is sub-zero air but as we head into the overnight hours, this system is drawing in
04:24warmer air so this is 2 a.m. 3 a.m. That's why you see that turnover to rain again because
04:29across southern Minnesota all these temperatures are above freezing anywhere from 32 to 38 degrees
04:38Fahrenheit at 4,000 feet so that means you're going to get rain because at that time we'll put
04:44out in the winds at that same height. We got strong south winds. I mean this is pretty incredible. These
04:51winds at 4,000 feet above the ground are going to be 45 to 50 miles an hour out of the south
04:57which is good for northern Minnesota where you stay cold enough to keep it snow. You're
05:00bringing in a warmer more moist air mass to feed the system but if you're too far south like we
05:05will be, it also means you're going to turn back over to rain so that's what's going on with that.
05:09So 4 a.m. will backtrack a couple model runs because it only goes past 18 hours every six
05:18hours in the model run so every hour run is at least 18 hours but for a 48-hour forecast it only
05:25does that every six hours. So 4 a.m. rain here in the Twin Cities and we'll get kind of on and
05:30off rain through the day tomorrow because we're going to get pretty warm air in here but you can
05:34see all the while northern Minnesota just gets waves of dark blue that's heavy snow and then it
05:39all wraps up by early Thursday. This is 6 a.m. Thursday morning just a few snow showers left to
05:43the north and the reason, not just aloft, but during the day tomorrow here across southern
05:50Minnesota I'm going to put on surface temperatures forecast from the model. We start the day in the
05:54upper 30s so whatever we get overnight by the morning the roads should probably be just wet
05:59maybe a little slushy in spots but with temperatures going up overnight that will melt things on the
06:05roadways pretty quickly and look what happens during the day. We warm up into the upper 40s
06:10even maybe 50. Now this model does tend to overdo temperatures a few degrees but you get the idea
06:16look at southeastern Minnesota in fact Rochester well into the 50s maybe even hitting 60 out
06:20towards La Crosse while northern Minnesota you can see stays in the 30s so low 30s northern
06:26Minnesota 40s here in the Twin Cities 50s in southeastern Minnesota that is why tomorrow will
06:30be mostly rain for us. So as far as this model goes with total snowfall it's going high up along
06:39the north shore especially which is where we expect it to be the heaviest. Now we're looking
06:44at a value here that doesn't take into account compacting and melting. I've talked about this
06:49the last few storms that especially now that we're in April the ground is warm during the day
06:54there is sunlight getting through so it's not the same ratios as the middle of winter you know we
06:57talk about a 10 to 1 or 15 to 1 ratio well it can be 5 to 1 in these heavy wet sloppy systems so
07:03that's what we're looking at there but the HRRR gives us two inches of snow in the Twin Cities
07:09pretty widespread across the metro so that's why we're not in a winter storm warning or winter
07:13weather advisory. Winter storm criteria is six inches or more which St. Cloud maybe gets
07:20and Brainerd certainly Bemidji and then up the north shore Duluth but when we put on that
07:26value that accounts for melting and compacting positive snow depth change you get a lot
07:31different picture. Then we're looking at maybe an inch in the Twin Cities but you still get these
07:388, 9, 10 inch amounts kind of a bullseye around the Bemidji area and then a secondary bullseye
07:45from Duluth up the north shore of anywhere from 8 to 13, 14 inches of snow so that's that model.
07:52The official weather service forecast matches pretty close there's not a whole lot of
07:57disparity here the weather service forecast does expand the heavier snow a little bit
08:03than the high resolution rapid refresh model and remember that the weather service forecast
08:09takes into account all the different models and actual humans looking at it and I'm in pretty
08:15good agreement with the weather service I think this looks about like what we will see across the
08:19state so if you are in Brainerd, Bemidji, International Falls, Duluth, Grand Marais you're
08:26in for a very heavy snow but note here that while the HRRR model gave St. Cloud six seven inches of
08:34snow the weather service forecast is three inches and if we look at the weighted average of the
08:39models which is always a good reference point too this is partly why the weather service forecast is
08:47lower because this takes into account all the models and weights them and you get still higher
08:53than the weather service forecast you know three four five inches in St. Cloud but not the
08:59specific value that that one model gave in particular and Twin Cities again about two inches
09:05of snow but I want most of this is going to happen in a pretty quick period so I'm going to break it
09:09down into 12-hour periods because the storm is multifaceted in terms of precipitation type
09:15and the timing so through the next 12 hours this takes us through 10 p.m. most of the snowfall
09:22accumulation is going to be in the central part of the state probably in that two three four inch
09:27range because again during the day it's harder to get to go but as we head into the next 12-hour
09:32period which would take us from 10 p.m. tonight to 10 a.m. tomorrow note the shift the bulk of
09:37the accumulations are more into north central Minnesota and then the north shore really gets
09:42going in a 12-hour period six to nine inches of snow so that's not quite one inch per hour
09:49snowfall rates but pretty close very heavy snow I would not advise traveling at all on the north
09:54shore tonight into tomorrow it's going to be very messy and you can see in the weather or in southern
09:58Minnesota we really see almost nothing and then during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night this
10:04is 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. tomorrow nothing in the Twin Cities southeastern Minnesota because as we went
10:09through we're just going to be way too warm northern Minnesota though continues with some
10:13heavy snow so remember it was six to nine inches in the previous 12-hour period for the north shore
10:20well they're going to get another six to nine inches in the next 12-hour period and then places
10:24further north Ely International Falls gets in on the action more six to seven inches of snow during
10:29the day tomorrow and we see almost nothing in southern Minnesota as far as ice this time doesn't
10:37look like a whole lot the areas you're seeing lightly coated in pink are just a 10 or 100
10:43maybe a couple hundreds of an inch of ice from the model average and mostly across central
10:49Minnesota there's a brief window late tonight where those places that temperatures do dip below
10:54freezing could see a brief window of some light freezing rain for the most part though this is
10:59going to be a divide between snow and rain across the southern part of state and here's the reason
11:04why when we look at those temperatures tomorrow morning 7 a.m. just before the sun's up you can
11:12see St. Cloud still close to freezing but yes the central part of the state is right at that 30 31 32
11:18mark Twin Cities though 36 and above a lot of moisture in this system though as I started out
11:27saying we are in a drought still and this is the liquid equivalent breaking it down so we're not
11:34comparing apples and oranges snow to water but just water for everybody and along the north shore
11:38we're talking one to two inches of water liquid equivalent but even in central Minnesota and
11:44including the Twin Cities inch to an inch and a half of water and in the Twin Cities remember most
11:49of that it will be in the form of water so we had about an inch and three quarters of rain
11:55over the weekend Saturday into Saturday night well we're going to be in for maybe another one
11:59so this is incredible compared to how just dry and quiet the winter was so a lot of moisture
12:05that we definitely need and then things are going to be quieter after that point we're looking at
12:12much quieter weather in fact next week spring is back Thursday into next week we really don't see
12:17any systems bringing us precipitation and we should see sunshine I think it'll still be pretty cloudy
12:22Thursday and those temperatures are slightly below normal normal high is now 51 so everything
12:27here in the seven day is below normal except for Friday should see some sunshine Friday 54 but
12:33temporarily cooler for the weekend and next week I'm gonna go out a little further because
12:39in case you want a little hope this takes us out into the Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
12:45more sunshine and spring-like temperatures we're gonna be in the 60s by maybe even Tuesday's
12:50earliest Tuesday but Wednesday Thursday Friday looks quite warm and in fact let's see if the
12:54American model is still doing it it had us yeah into the 70s even by next weekend so not this
13:00coming but the 13th Sunday the 13th 75 degrees one model run nothing to set in stone yet but
13:10all the models are hinting at quite the warm-up next week 71 on the European model already maybe
13:14by Wednesday Canadian model not as warm but you get the idea we're looking at least 60s for mid
13:21to late week next week into next weekend if not maybe a 70 degree reading again so back to the
13:28snowfall totals just to give you that perspective again the bulk of this snow is going to be across
13:34the northern half of the state and especially the north shore and in the twin cities most of
13:39ours is going to come in that window that I talked about this evening so we'll back up here and show
13:43you remember I showed that we get a little slushy rain snow mix here through 7 p.m. probably not
13:48amounting to much because this isn't accounting for melting but once we get that burst between
13:54about 7 8 and 10 11 p.m. that's when most of the snow comes so you can see two inches of snow
14:00by midnight and then that's it for us there's nothing more adding up here so it's going to
14:04be that brief window of heavy wet snow in the evening put the her model back on
14:14so that you can see that you know we see rain mixing with snow this afternoon evening as that
14:20fills in you know as far as timing we could see some spotty rain snow showers here early to mid
14:27afternoon but it looks as though most of anything steady is going to be later afternoon so probably
14:31right towards the evening commute but again temperatures will be above freezing and it
14:35might be mainly in the form of rain but it could go back and forth between rain and snow because
14:38we're going to be really on that edge but once it turns over here quickly this is eight o'clock
14:42there's that burst of snow that's when we get our quick couple of inches in the twin cities and then
14:46it moves on and then we're back to rain by the early morning hours so that's the way it's looking
14:50um another sloppy spring storm system bringing needed moisture though yes we are in drought
14:57and then we're in for a nice stretch of it could be a seven eight day period without any measurable
15:01precipitation uh thursday into next week with those spring temperatures returning so there you
15:08go it snows in april sometimes prince said that