US President Donald Trump is set to introduce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, signalling a stricter trade policy towards countries with high duties on American goods. India, which imposes a 100 percent tariff on US agricultural imports, has drawn attention from the White House, which argues that such policies make it difficult for American exports to compete.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good evening and welcome, you're watching the NewsTrack, I'm Rahul Kamal.
00:03This is the week when American President Donald Trump unleashes his reciprocal tariffs against
00:10the world economy.
00:12What impact will it have on India?
00:14Is the American President leading the United States into recession?
00:18What impact will that have on India's economic growth?
00:21How is the rest of the world likely to react?
00:23I have a high quality panel of Indian and international economists and some voices from
00:29India Inc. joining me for a special discussion on the NewsTrack.
00:38Trump's reciprocal tariffs are coming.
00:41Well, you're going to see in two days which is maybe tomorrow night or probably Wednesday
00:48you're going to see and they're reciprocal so whatever they charge us we charge them
00:53but we're being nicer than they were.
00:55Trump to unveil tariff plans soon.
01:00World on Trump tariff tenterhooks.
01:04Friend and foe.
01:05I always say friend and foe but the friend in many cases is worse than the foe.
01:09They took advantage of us and we are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were.
01:18What will be the impact on India?
01:21The European Union already dropped their tariff down to 2.5% it was announced a couple of
01:25years ago which is a very small tariff.
01:29The United States charged very little and I think I heard that India just a little while
01:35ago is going to be dropping its tariff.
01:39Will trade wars plunge US into recession?
01:46What will Trump tariffs unleash?
01:49That is our big focus on the NewsTrack.
01:52The world is on Trump's tariff tenterhooks.
01:55On the 2nd of April Donald Trump will unveil his reciprocal tariff plan.
01:59He's calling this Liberation Day.
02:01But what will this bring?
02:03Will some countries be spared or will all nations bear the brunt?
02:07And will these tariffs plunge America into recession?
02:10Take a look at this report and then I'll throw it open to our guests joining us from
02:14the United States and from India to look at the impact this will have on Indian exporters
02:19and on you.
02:49to all nations.
03:20While India has adopted a cautious approach, emphasizing vigilance and adaptability, the
03:26US President has said that he expected India to reduce tariffs significantly.
03:50The United States judged very little.
03:53And a lot of, I think I heard that India just a little while ago is going to be dropping
03:57its tariffs.
03:59Meanwhile, three Asian manufacturing giants, South Korea, China and Japan have agreed to
04:04promote regional trade.
04:06Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo are major US trading partners, although they have been at loggerheads
04:12over issues including territorial disputes.
04:16The European Union too has expressed readiness to respond collectively to any US trade tariffs.
04:24Europe has not started this confrontation.
04:27We do not necessarily want to retaliate.
04:30But if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it.
04:37Mexico has announced plans to implement retaliatory tariffs on US goods.
04:43Canada has responded defiantly, announcing retaliatory measures, including 25% tariffs
04:50on US$155 billion worth of US goods.
04:55The world is bracing for trade wars as Trump looks to upend American trading partnerships.
05:03Bearer Report, India Today.
05:06Hours before American President Trump announces his reciprocal tariff plan, a new American
05:11report has flagged Made in India and some other Indian policies as non-tariff barriers.
05:17It has also highlighted issues around restrictions on foreign direct investment in sectors like
05:21retail, commerce and banking.
05:27Hours ahead of US President Donald Trump's 2nd April deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs
05:33a report by the Office of the United States Trade Representative has spotlighted numerous
05:38barriers India imposes on US exports, investment and digital trade.
05:47Released on Monday, the 2025 National Trade Estimate report on foreign trade barriers
05:52gives a detailed assessment of restrictive measures and sets the stage for possible reciprocal
05:59tariffs on India along with most nations across the globe.
06:06India, according to the report, maintains some of the highest tariffs among major global economies.
06:15India's average most favoured nation tariff rate was at 17% in 2023, with agricultural
06:22products averaging a steep 39% and non-agri products attracting an average 13.5%.
06:32The report cites high applied tariffs on a wide range of goods including vegetable oils
06:37at 45%, apples, corn and motorcycles at 50%, automobiles and flowers at 60%, natural rubber
06:46at 70%, coffee, raisins and walnuts at 100% and alcoholic beverages at 150%.
06:56In addition, the USTR says that India changes tariffs unpredictably, creating a volatile
07:02environment for US exporters.
07:06Beyond tariffs, the report identifies a range of non-tariff barriers which it says further
07:11compound trade difficulties.
07:17This includes restrictive import licensing, limitations on re-manufactured goods and used
07:22medical devices, and arbitrary quantitative restrictions on products like pulses and boric
07:28acid, complex custom procedures, inconsistent regional application of rules and valuation
07:34disputes.
07:38In the agricultural space, sanitary and phytosanitary measures remain a flashpoint.
07:44The report criticizes India's non-science based rules for dairy, grain and genetically
07:50modified feed certification.
07:54Market access remains blocked for genetically engineered products, distillers, dried grains
07:59with solubles and alfalfa hay.
08:05India's strict pest controls and fumigation requirements, particularly methyl bromide treatment
08:11are described as unnecessarily burdensome and inconsistently applied.
08:17The USTR also raises alarms over technical barriers to trade, pointing to India's growing
08:23reliance on mandatory compliance with Bureau of Indian Standards regulations across diverse
08:28sectors such as chemicals, electronics and telecommunications, adding that these standards
08:34are often enforced with limited stakeholder consultation and short transition periods
08:39placing disproportionate burdens on foreign firms.
08:45Additionally, intellectual property rights continue to be a sore point with India consistently
08:50a part of the USTR priority watch list.
08:54In services and investment, the USTR cites FDI limits in sectors such as retail, banking
09:00and legal services which put foreign firms at a disadvantage.
09:05US concerns also center around India's IT rules which place personal criminal liability
09:11on platform employees and lack clarity.
09:15Unpolitically motivated content takedowns are also flagged as disruptive to digital trade.
09:20Frequent internet shutdowns and politically motivated content takedowns are also flagged
09:25as disruptive to digital trade.
09:28The report further highlights India's agricultural subsidies especially through the minimum support
09:33price program which incentivizes overproduction and distorts global markets.
09:42With reciprocal tariffs under discussion, these findings may soon have real world implications
09:47for US-India trade relations.
09:56So what is President Trump most likely to do?
09:59What impact will this have on Indian exports and on the Indian economy?
10:04Is Donald Trump likely to lead America into recession?
10:08What impact does that have on global growth?
10:11To talk about the most important conversation of the moment, I am joined on this broadcast
10:15by a distinguished panel.
10:17I want to start by introducing Professor Andrew Latham.
10:19He is a distinguished scholar of the political economy at Macalester College.
10:24I have Shankar Iyer, a well-known expert on the economy and author.
10:29I have Sandeep Vempati joining us.
10:31He is an economist who works very closely in different capacities with the government of the day.
10:36We have with us PN Vijay.
10:39He is an investment banker, again very closely plugged into the BJP network
10:43and provides us a thinking of what's happening and how India Inc.
10:47and the government is looking at what's at play.
10:50I have one of India's foremost economists, Ajit Ranade, joining us as well.
10:54So let's get started.
10:55I want to ask Professor Latham first, your best sense of what Donald Trump
11:00is actually likely to do in what he calls Liberation Day
11:04when he does that big tariffs press conference.
11:07Well, there is a couple of spaces I don't ever want to inhabit
11:11and one of them is Donald Trump's mind.
11:14It's hard to say even at this late date exactly what he's going to do
11:18across the board or on a country-by-country basis.
11:22I'm hopeful for India in that there may be trade talks,
11:27serious trade talks that will lead to some exemptions and whatnot.
11:31Less hopeful for countries like Canada which I think are simply going to get hammered.
11:35Liberation Day is a crazy label for this because it implies that all of these jobs,
11:43all these firms, all these factories, all these farms
11:46are going to relocate to the United States, get behind this tariff wall,
11:50and that's just crazy.
11:52That bears no relationship to the real world of economics.
11:56So we have to just wait and see.
11:59As I said, I'm hopeful.
12:02If these tariffs do go up against India, for example,
12:06it's going to be really problematic for certain sectors,
12:09especially agriculture, less so on the industrial side, I think.
12:14Shankar Iyer, you know what Donald Trump throws India's way
12:18and the way of the rest of the world, we don't know the specifics of.
12:21But what we know is that tariffs are coming and exemptions at least initially are unlikely.
12:26That's what the team around Trump has been communicating to the outside world.
12:31What's your best sense at this moment of what India should expect and how should India react?
12:38Well, Rahul, for some reason, there is a belief across the markets
12:45and particularly in India that it's a one-day event.
12:48I think this is just the premiere, whereas people are thinking this is a finale.
12:53So April 2 is not the finale.
12:55It is the premiere of a series of episodes that will follow.
12:59On the India side, I think the best hope that they can have
13:05is that the promise of bilateral trade agreements, economic cooperation agreements,
13:11will sort of put some amount of buffer between the hit that India might otherwise take.
13:20And most of the time, there is a lot of lazy analysis about how this will play out.
13:30I'm kind of worried.
13:32It troubles me that there is so much sanguine feeling that, oh, India will get off
13:37and we'll benefit from China stuff.
13:40There are two things that I sort of specifically want to point out.
13:43The United States Trade Representative, USTR, and his office of Howard Lutnick
13:49have shared a list of non-tariff barriers within India.
13:54They've also shared details of things that they want to change.
13:58We haven't seen any discussion, any public consultation.
14:02I don't know whether industry is being consulted.
14:05I think it is important for India, just as Donald Trump tells everybody,
14:10India charges 100% on automobiles.
14:13We should release the information as to what is exactly troubling them.
14:19It's not so much the tariffs, the level of tariffs, but also non-tariff barriers.
14:24The second part is that there is a lazy assumption that, you know,
14:29if the United States sort of goes hard on China, India will benefit.
14:34You would remember, in the 90s, there was this slogan,
14:38Silicon chips and no potato chips.
14:41And 30 years later, neither silicon chips nor potato chips.
14:44So, India has to sort of first fix its problems.
14:49We have a system where energy, which is the most critical input in any kind of economic activity,
14:55there is no set off for users of energy because the state governments won't allow it.
15:01We have 69,000 compliances on people.
15:04If you want to set up any industry, you require upwards of 90 clearances.
15:08So, I think we should sort of first have it.
15:11I'm glad that this is happening, in a sense,
15:14because this will sort of wake us up from the whole hubris that we have of being the fastest growing economy.
15:22No, sure, but nobody wants to be browbeaten into reform.
15:25Reducing non-tariff barriers is well and good and it must absolutely happen.
15:30But you don't want to be bullied by someone who thinks he is head of the global economy
15:36and can bend the global trading order to his will.
15:39Mr. P.N. Vijay, give us your sense of, you know, the effort that India has made in the dialogue
15:46that's taken place with different officials from the Trump administration.
15:50A, to stave off these tariffs and B, to ensure that India doesn't get impacted the most.
15:57Do you think the government's done all that it could or do you think we're just being bullied and coerced
16:02in a very unpleasant way and the government, in fact, isn't pushing back hard enough?
16:07I don't think we are being bullied. I think we are working hard at it.
16:11In the last one month, several discussions, including the visit of our Commerce Minister to the US
16:17and then a high-level delegation. So we are surely on the job.
16:22You know, Trump is a businessman. He is negotiating here.
16:27He has taken a Pan King Four type of negotiating gambit.
16:32So it's up to us to put our cards on the table.
16:36And if you look at the slightly bigger picture, of course, our pharmaceutical exports are going to be affected.
16:43Our gems and jewellery exports are going to be affected. Our garment exports, our textile exports.
16:49But the flip side of it is something I'd like to talk about, which is maybe this is a good opportunity
16:57for us to look inward and see what we can do about our tariffs.
17:02You know, Rahul, in the 90s, we were all there and we unleashed a whole wave of reforms.
17:07We opened up the Indian economy. We globalized it and we have had tremendous success with globalization.
17:13But even then our tariffs are very high. Some of them are justified like farm tariffs.
17:19We need to protect the farmer from subsidized imports from other countries.
17:24But there is very little justification in taxing alcoholic liquor or high-end cars, except a moralistic bias against them.
17:34You remember we used to tax refrigerators at 150 percent sometime back in the 80s.
17:39So I think this is and also as some of the panelists was pointing out, we have a huge number of non-tariff barriers.
17:45So you make an important point. Let me put that question to Amitabh Dubey who heads up the research cell at the Congress party.
17:51Mr. Dubey, the fact is, even if we are being coerced and pushed by Donald Trump's tariff threat,
17:58these are good for India in the long run. These are good for our export competitiveness.
18:05And India then becomes more closely aligned in global value chains.
18:09The fact that we create these artificial barriers has not been good for India's growth, for India's export.
18:15And therefore, no matter why it's happening, and obviously, reform doesn't happen because you plan it out and execute it.
18:22It happens typically in the Indian context in adversity.
18:25And this adversity, two of our guests argue, is good for where this may take India.
18:31I agree with the broad point you make.
18:36Unfortunately, what it seems from what we've seen so far, for instance, when the Prime Minister met President Trump in February,
18:43is that there doesn't seem to be systematic thinking going on.
18:46They reduced duties on bourbon, whiskey.
18:49Harley Davidson placed large orders to appease Donald Trump for, you know, javelin missiles, striker vehicles.
18:57And Aatma Nagar Bharat went out of the window, as did the prospects for, you know, Mahindra, Tata, Bharat Forge.
19:03And Tesla seems to be getting a red carpet to come in, which, again, affects the automobile ecosystem we've built over decades under different governments.
19:11So I don't see the kind of strategizing. I see knee-jerk reactions and a little bit of panic.
19:17Can I counter you to say, just Mr. Dubey, once again, the fact also is that there have been some outlandishly high tariffs that India had,
19:26for example, on bourbon, whiskey, on those Harley Davidson motorcycles,
19:30that became a matter of conversation in the Trump ecosystem.
19:33And therefore, you reduce them because ultimately what matters, as you know well, are your mean tariffs.
19:38What's the average weighted mean tariff that you're applying, which is far more important than some bourbon, whiskey or Harley Davidson.
19:45Even if you reduce that, you know, it gives the opposition some fodder,
19:48but it doesn't really make any big difference to the trade that India is doing with the United States.
19:52That's more from what Trump is seeing. India is reading the room and trying to play it.
19:59Would that address to me?
20:01Yes, it is, sir.
20:03So I agree that, you know, in the last 10 years, the average tariff has gone up from, I think, 14 to 18 percent,
20:09which is quite a large increase, and it does affect the exportability of MSMEs, for instance, that like to import products.
20:16I'll give you one example. I think Mr. Vijay said textiles and garments as a big sector generates a lot of jobs.
20:21And the import duties on, you know, filament, yarn and polyester products is much higher than it is in Bangladesh, Indonesia,
20:30Vietnam, countries that are competing with us. And therefore, our own tariff policies are hurting our export potential.
20:36And as Viral Acharya has pointed out, a lot of our tariffs are because of monopolization,
20:42because these large four, five monopolies have a disproportionate influence on policy.
20:47Therefore, the tariffs have gone up, price rise has been affected.
20:50And so our tariff policy is more shaped by logging ability than kind of rational policy.
20:56So I think what we would look for is some rationalization. You know, people have been talking about rationalization of tariffs for a long time,
21:01but we need to make sure that our exportability is competitive.
21:05When South Korea went on its export model, Samsung and LG were not protected by sky-high tariffs.
21:11They were globally competitive. And so we need our monopolies and our small businesses to have a rational, you know,
21:18tariff policy that facilitates their global competitiveness.
21:22Okay. Ajit Ranade, do you agree with this charge that in India, tariffs have been built in a way
21:27over the past two terms of the Modi government to help what the government thinks of as national champions.
21:33And this push, whether it is because of Tesla and even if BYD benefits and others benefit,
21:39will actually make things better for the Indian consumer at the end of the day, which is what everyone watching at this time should really appreciate.
21:46I think the Trump pressure on tariff reduction is net good for India.
21:52Because in the last four or five years, as the earlier speaker said, our tariffs have drifted upwards.
21:58Actually, the progress from 1991 was progressively coming down, tariffs were coming down,
22:03and our target was to reach ASEAN levels. But since 2015, they've gone up by 4% to 5% on average, in some cases even higher.
22:12And the reason given for that was to help make in India program or help the production link incentives,
22:18you know, added incentives for this domestic production. But that really hasn't worked.
22:21And that's not the right strategy. Actually, we have to be globally competitive.
22:25It's make in India, but not make for India alone, make for the world. So you have to be competitive.
22:29So I think, you know, I also remember the two of our most, the number one and number two exports out of India are software services,
22:36about $250 billion, and remittances, $129 billion. So these two items we have to protect and nurture.
22:43And as was said, you know, in items like man-made fiber, you know, our competitiveness of exporting garments to the world
22:52has been hampered by the inverted, you know, strange duty structure for inputs.
22:56And therefore, countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Sri Lanka have gone ahead of us.
23:00Let Sandeep Vempati respond to Amitabh Dubey's charge that the reaction from the government betrays panic.
23:07It seems knee jerk. Instead of thinking this through, we are trying to tick some boxes,
23:13reducing taxes on Harley Davidson, reducing taxes on bourbon, whiskey.
23:18It's almost as if we are responding to pressure from Trump and responding to the headline and trying to do headline management.
23:24Let Sandeep Vempati respond to that.
23:28Rahul, well, if you look at the data from 16-17 about our trade with the US,
23:36the trade actually, in fact, the imports from the US increased by 200%,
23:43whereas the exports to the US decreased by less number compared to the imports from the US.
23:51So if you see that the statement that it is a reaction to certain things,
23:57I think it is not the case as the trade data shows for the last seven, eight years.
24:02So that's one thing. The second thing that you would see is that if you look at the joint data statement
24:09of both President Trump and the Honorable Prime Minister Modi,
24:14they said very clearly that the focus is to enhance the trade,
24:18deepen the value chain integration. At the same time, the exports on the India side,
24:24which is labor-intensive, will be kind of promoted.
24:27At the same time, the industrial machinery sort of equipments will be kind of making its way to India.
24:34So I don't think whatever the government has done in the recent past is a sort of response to anything.
24:40But the structure and the response that the government will take with respect to the US Trump's tariffs
24:46will be purely based on the joint data statement and that is not, what should I say,
24:53it is something that the guiding statement for both the countries to follow up on.
24:57The last time America pushed for protectionist tariffs was in 1930 and that time it worsened the recession
25:05and the Great Depression that the US was dealing with and over the weekend,
25:08a lot of the conversation has been about whether Trump's tariffs increase the probability
25:14of America heading into recession and that bringing down global growth.
25:21Do you think it is quite likely now, far more probable than earlier that Trump will lead America into recession?
25:26I do and in fact it's not just about leading America into recession. I mean a tariff is a tax.
25:33And we are talking about one estimate from somebody close to Trump was over the next 10 years
25:39generating $6 trillion in income. But viewed slightly differently, that's a $6 trillion tax increase.
25:49If we zoom out from the American perspective and we go back to the 1930s, tariffs,
25:56it was kind of an unregulated international economy, tariffs were going up all over the place
26:02and that did amplify the destructive effects of a global depression, the Great Depression.
26:08And after World War II, the idea was, at least in the Western world, we were going to fix that.
26:13We were going to adopt originally a Keynesian but a little bit later just a neoliberal free trade arrangement
26:19and we have this rules-based international order which is premised on free trade basically
26:24and Trump is upending that particular apple cart. I think it's the end of an era.
26:29In the same way that the 1940s marked the end of an era that gave us the Great Depression
26:35and we have avoided, with the exception of 2008, really serious recessions, no more depressions.
26:43That set of institutions, that set of rules and norms, that way of doing business,
26:49Trump is driving a stake through the heart of it.
26:52So how many quarters will it be between the likely announcement since we don't know the exact nature of the announcement
26:59and the onset of recession in the United States which just a few weeks ago
27:03seemed quite unlikely and America seemed one of the big stars on the global economic growth horizon?
27:12Well, Trump is not an intellectual but he does have instincts
27:17and one of his instincts seems to be that America is really being hurt by the current set of arrangements
27:24and he's going to change those arrangements to prevent the US, quote unquote,
27:29from being ripped off by countries like Canada and India and indeed all countries.
27:34I think he's serious but he doesn't really understand what he's doing.
27:38Sometimes he uses the threat of tariffs as a cudgel, as a negotiating tool.
27:42Sometimes he thinks he can reshore or onshore all of these industries to America
27:47and then the third item which has come up already is he thinks in lieu of the income tax
27:53he can finance the federal government through tariffs.
27:56That used to be the case before 1913 but as I tell my students all the time
28:00in 1913 the average American experienced the federal government in terms of the post office and that was it.
28:07Those days are long gone. The federal government does all kinds of stuff.
28:10You cannot possibly fund the federal government through tariffs.
28:14It's just another way in which I think President Trump's instincts are absolutely wrong.
28:20You know this idea Shankara here of policy making by instinct is very dangerous.
28:28You know we saw that at the time of demonetization as well.
28:31They went with their instinct and ultimately the economics didn't add up.
28:34How deeply do you think Trump has thought through these tariffs, the team around him?
28:40Are they basically using this as negotiating leverage to put countries like India under pressure,
28:46get them to reduce tariffs or do you think he'll go all guns blazing
28:50and actually see through his threat and put it into action?
28:53I think he's trying to translate political instinct into an economic thesis.
29:01The political instinct is that we are a 30 trillion dollar economy and we are being
29:06sort of ripped off or whatever the phrase of the day is.
29:11And so he thinks that if we are entertaining all these producers, we should have the similar right to entertain.
29:17The fact is that 40-50 years they have evangelized the idea of global supply chains.
29:23Now suddenly they decide that the 24 trillion dollar supply global trade market should be upset.
29:29I don't know whether there's, I mean there isn't enough evidence to show that there has been thought behind this.
29:37There has been a lot of theories, one of the conspiracy theories or the happy-go-lucky theories
29:43is that over the next 10 years the US will sort of bring in 3 trillion dollars or 30 trillion dollars.
29:50Various figures are going on. So the fact is that these guys in the US have not recognized
29:59or are ignoring is that global growth in the Adam Smith principle works in concert and not in conflict.
30:10So if you create conflicts, there will be a slowdown, there will be depression.
30:15And the US, Germany, everybody in the advanced economies has tried the idea of tariffs.
30:23The Chamberlain papers in the UK, Ober Tariff in Germany, the Japanese favorite company's idea.
30:33All of this has not worked. In fact, why go that far? I mean, you know, in 1922 they did.
30:38And Charles Kinderberger has done enough work on that for us to know.
30:42But look at India's fate. We had a growth rate slower than that of Malawi when we had high tariff walls.
30:49So for us the question that we need to look at is what is the opportunity that this gives us?
30:56My worry is that we are not thinking deep enough about how the global impact of Trump's tariffs.
31:06For instance, if he goes hard on China and China starts dumping or China drops its currency or they form a new group.
31:17Four days back there was a Bao conference in Beijing where Japan, China and Korea have arrived at some ideas to collaborate.
31:26Those are the kind of things that should worry us because the new collaborations will take away market share from us.
31:34What we do internally is before we rationalize tariff, we have to rationalize our regulations and we have to rationalize our taxes.
31:43They are completely out of whack from a global perspective.
31:47Ajit Ranade, how deep is the likely impact on America's economic growth and the heightened fears around recession?
31:55And if America goes into recession, what's your estimate of the impact this would have on India's economic growth,
32:01which in any case over the past quarter, a couple of quarters has been floundering?
32:06See, in the last few months, the Indian stock market has lost something like 40 lakh crores, you know, after the stock market.
32:14So we already are down. And I think, you know, even in the Senate, the Republicans are not supporting everything, Canadian tariffs and the Mexican tariffs.
32:27So everything is going to play out on a week by week basis.
32:30And if there is a real blowback from the stock market, that's not going to be good news.
32:36As was discussed earlier, Trump is influenced by the fact that mercantilism worked in America till 1913, as Professor said.
32:44But we are in a different world and it's a very interconnected world.
32:47And by the way, the whole thing is being triggered basically by the concern about China.
32:52But Americans walking away from global leadership is actually going to hurt them more.
32:56They're creating space for China and the EU to move in.
32:59As Shankar Iyer said, China is already regrouping and trying to find allies.
33:02This is not good news for America to become extremely isolated now.
33:06So I think there are chances of recession in India. Indian markets should be aware of this possibility.
33:11Vijay, you've been a big markets player yourself. The markets have been floundering.
33:15A lot of people who over the past decade or so had invested their hard-earned money in the Indian stock market.
33:22The level of growth of SIPs is coming down. Retail investors jittery.
33:27Foreign investors largely pulling out for the most part.
33:30You know, this is not just at the high level, Piyush Goyal, Modi, Trump and Ratnik.
33:36At the aam aadmi investor level, it's beginning to pinch everyone.
33:39Rahul, this correction in the market has nothing to do with Trump. It's absolutely wrong to connect them.
33:47We were at 22 times multiple in September, which is the highest ever after the National Stock Exchange was open some 25 years ago.
33:56The market was crying for a correction and we corrected. It was a very healthy correction.
34:01And interestingly, during March, we just ended. After 14 months, the foreign investors became buyers in the Indian market.
34:10The Indian market has found stability.
34:13So to my mind, the tariff is not the big reason for the Indian markets to correct.
34:20It is because of flows and valuations.
34:23Coming back to this, my main point, Rahul, I'd like to make today is still,
34:28it's very difficult for us to anticipate what Trump is going to do.
34:33It's even more difficult to say how much of what he's saying he'll follow through and whether there will be a recession.
34:39At least, I'm not capable of thinking that far ahead about what's in Trump's mind.
34:44But what I can say with certainty, it's an opportunity for India to look inside.
34:51And if this government wants to push through some internal ease of doing business reforms, this is a great opportunity to do it.
35:00For example, our textile exports, if we could bring down the duties on the inputs, it will be a great thing for our textile exports.
35:08Where were we in textiles 20 years ago and where are we now in textile exports?
35:13So I think, you remember in 1990, nobody thought of reform, but reforms, Mr. Rao brought it in because it became a necessity.
35:21I think the next three, four years is going to be exciting for India.
35:25If we can seize this opportunity, get rid of some of these unjustified tariffs, improve the ease of doing business, bring down the necessary.
35:35Those are good things to do in any case. Why it requires Trump to come at you with a danda is a different matter, PN Vijay.
35:41Blame it on Trump. I'm forced to do it to the internal audience. It could be a win-win for India.
35:49Earlier you were blaming it on the IMF. That's when reforms started in the early 90s and now you can blame it on Trump
35:56to try and explain things to the Indian consumer and the Indian voter.
36:01I want to go across now to Rudra Chatterjee. We've had the opportunity of speaking to economists internationally and domestically.
36:08Rudra Chatterjee is the Managing Director of the Lakshmi Group, Chairperson of Abiti.
36:12They are high-profile exporters primarily to the United States.
36:16And he's written a piece explaining why he thinks that this crisis could be a big opportunity for India.
36:21Mr. Chatterjee, we've heard from the economists as a voice of Indian industry.
36:26Why do you think these tariffs that Trump is pushing through, and because you're a key exporter,
36:31should obviously impact companies like yours. Why do you see these as being a big opportunity for your company and for India in general?
36:38Thank you. Rahul, I think it is a challenge if there's a huge tariff on India from the United States.
36:46Our company, Obiti, exports to the United States furniture and carpets.
36:52So if there's a big tariff, of course, it's a challenge. But within that challenge is an opportunity.
36:59If we can do a free trade deal with the United States, with the EU, with the UK,
37:05talk about releasing both the import costs and export costs, we will suffer in some industries.
37:12But we will probably improve the trading potential of our country.
37:19I agree fully that while India liberalized and grew, the amount of trade of India did not grow.
37:26And we must use this opportunity to say where are we competitive and how can we become more competitive?
37:33So by doing a free trade deal with the US, yes, we will have challenges in some sectors.
37:38Maybe there's automotive, there's some agricultural issues, and we have to take a serious look at how to protect those sectors.
37:46But there are opportunities like textiles. How can we ensure that we import the right fiber so that we can export?
37:53We can take over the segment of sewing, which many other countries have done.
38:00So this is an opportunity of huge proportions, similar to the 1991 opportunity for liberalization.
38:09If we can play the cards right, it is a challenge.
38:12I won't say that I'm looking forward to 3rd April and finding out what the tariff rates are.
38:17It's a stress for all businesses because we are very dependent on exporting to the US.
38:23Thousands of jobs are at stake.
38:25I just want to tell our viewers that Rudra Jadeji also runs Malkhai Bari Tea, which is one of India's,
38:30one of the world's most famous teas, in fact, and again, exported massively.
38:34So how are you planning your business plans for this year?
38:37Given the uncertainty that rules, you don't know the impact this will have.
38:40So how are you making your projections and how is this unsettling the business forecast and planning that you would have done?
38:47The B2B exports are challenged by tariff.
38:52The B2C exports, which is a smaller quantity, we do have the protection of a brand.
38:57Like Malkhai Bari, you mentioned. When we are doing Malkhai Bari Tea,
39:00we are comfortable that people want to drink Darjeeling tea, want to drink Malkhai Bari Tea,
39:04and we'll find a way to increase the sizes, change an offering.
39:09In a B2B business where you're selling to US brands and we are just the raw material supplier,
39:15whether it's furniture or carpets, then the margins are too thin to actually take the effect of the tariff.
39:22So our goal in the short term is basically to see, you know, how do we deal with it?
39:28Will it cause inflation in the US if there's a tariff? Will we have to absorb all those tariffs?
39:33Those are all issues for discussion and negotiation.
39:36But in a B2C environment where we are able to brand OBT and export,
39:41where we are able to brand Malkhai Bari and export, we have a little more flexibility.
39:46I'll leave it there. Rudra Chatterjee, for joining us and sharing your thoughts
39:49on how Indian companies are looking at the threat of tariffs. Thank you very much.
39:53I want to come back now, Amitabh Dubey, to the point that PN Vijay was making
39:57and also the point that Rudra makes, that this is an opportunity.
40:00So instead of getting into a siege mentality, instead of just saying,
40:04why have they reduced bourbon taxes or taxes on Harley Davidson,
40:10look at this as an opportunity. Ultimately, that's how Manmohan Singh in the 1990s
40:15along with Narasimha Rao was able to push reform through.
40:19It didn't happen because they planned it out perfectly.
40:22It happened because there's a crisis and they responded to the crisis,
40:25which is the way all reform typically tends to happen in India, unfortunately.
40:29I agree that with many of your panelists that this is in a way an opportunity
40:34for us to have a more rational tariff policy, which has of course been rising in recent years.
40:39But there's one difference between a reform from 1991 and the situation where we find ourselves.
40:44Robert Lighthizer, who was the previous trade representative in the Trump 1.0 government,
40:50in his book said the following, when I was in negotiations with Indian officials,
40:54I kept a copy of the biography of each of the country's billionaires on my desk.
40:58In predicting Indian government policies, I would look to the interests of these men.
41:02So this is a very different political economy we're operating in.
41:05So my hope is that the government goes beyond the political economy
41:09it's been operating in of cronyism and power concentration
41:12and actually looks at the competitiveness of the Indian economy.
41:15This also means that you make sure that your farmers,
41:19because agricultural tariffs could well be cut sharply,
41:22that you protect the interests of the farmers.
41:25You make sure that the ecosystems you've built of automobiles, pharmaceuticals,
41:28over many years are protected.
41:31PN Vijay, you know, respond to this.
41:33The former Commerce Secretary Bob Lighthizer, when he's writing that book,
41:37says he was looking at the commercial interests of key Indian conglomerates
41:42and determining how the Indian government is likely to operate.
41:45Now, well, of course, the Indian government will deny that being true.
41:49But the fact is, if that's how the US Commerce Secretary saw it in his mind,
41:53that's a pretty damning indictment of how the negotiator on the other side of the table
41:58thought you were operating.
42:00Yes, I agree. It's a damning statement.
42:02But Rahul, you and I have been in this market for a long time.
42:07We don't need an American to tell us how the Indian system operates.
42:11I'm not saying Indian business and government are not close.
42:16They've always been close.
42:18From the days of Indira Gandhi, business and government have been close.
42:23But if you see statistics, if you see the growth of Indian companies,
42:29I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that there has been any uneven.
42:37If you look at the growth of the Tata's,
42:41if you look at the growth of other software export companies,
42:45who are not surely perceived to be close to this government.
42:48I think it's a nice copy for him to write like that.
42:52But I personally, who am involved in Indian business for a long time,
42:56do not agree with what he says.
42:58I think broadly in every democracy, whether it's South Korea, Japan or India or the US,
43:04there will be a close relationship between large business forces and the government.
43:09There are trade associations, there are lobbies.
43:11I mean, it's a part of the democratic setup.
43:13So we live with it.
43:14But to draw a conclusion like this is, I think, being very unfair.
43:44But there could be a long-term opportunity.
43:46And I think the key is to see the extent to which the Indian policymakers
43:50are able to create those long-term opportunities for the Indian economy
43:54to make us more competitive as an exporter destination.
43:58So I want to thank all our guests for joining us.
44:00Astronaut Sunitha Williams, who is back on Earth after being stuck in space for 286 days,
44:05made her first public appearance.
44:07She spoke about her experience and her recovery.
44:10What's got the internet buzzing is her response to the question about how India looked from outer space.
44:15Here's her response.
44:28Space Girl Sunitha Williams speaking out for the first time after the 286-day space sojourn.
44:36Explaining how it was like being back in gravity and getting back to things and people she loves.
44:44I'm back.
44:46First and foremost, we were always coming back.
44:48What we're doing now, you know, our teams here are getting us ready to get, you know,
44:52rehab and get ready to take on new challenges.
44:55So, you know, feeling good since we've been back almost two weeks now.
44:59Actually went out and ran three miles yesterday.
45:01So I will give myself a little pat on the back.
45:05Sunitha amused everyone when she recalled her first actions back on Earth.
45:12I wanted to hug my husband and hug my dogs.
45:14And I'll say that order, in that order.
45:16But maybe, maybe not. No, I'm just joking.
45:18Of course, food, I, you know, something that's just like for home, for me,
45:22like something that is very, you know, reminds you of home.
45:25And I had, my father was a vegetarian, so I had a good grilled cheese sandwich when I got home.
45:30So that reminded me of him.
45:33The Indian origin space explorer recalled watching India and the Himalayas with all the glory from space.
45:42India is amazing. Every time we went over the Himalayas,
45:45and I'll tell you, Butch got some incredible pictures of the Himalayas.
45:49So just amazing.
45:51I think when you come from the east, going into like Gujarat and Mumbai,
45:56the fishing fleet that's off the coast there gives you a little bit of a beacon that here we come.
46:01And then all throughout India, I think the impression I had was it was just like this network of lights
46:07from the bigger cities going down through the smaller cities.
46:10Just incredible to look at at night.
46:12I think for sure I'm going to be going back to my father's home country and visiting with people.
46:18Sunita, who was holed up in space with fellow astronaut Butch Wilmore,
46:22was optimistic about Snagrid and Boeing Starliner.
46:27The spacecraft is really capable.
46:30It is a great spacecraft, and it has a lot of capability that other spacecraft don't have.
46:35And to see that thing successful and to be part of that program is an honor.
46:39Certainly there's responsibility throughout all the programs.
46:43And certainly you can start with me.
46:46Responsibility with Boeing? Yes.
46:49Responsibility with NASA? Yes.
46:52All the way up and down the chain, we all are responsible.
46:55We all own this.
46:57And we are, in this business, trust.
47:00You cannot do this business without trust.
47:02I'm just glad that they're involved and they take notice.
47:05Maybe it wasn't the perfect situation, but it allowed a lot of people,
47:09including the president and Elon, to look at what's going on,
47:13on the International Space Station, take it very seriously,
47:16and understand that our involvement as a country, as a spacefaring nation,
47:21is really important throughout the world.
47:25The astronauts had a personal thank you note for President Trump
47:28and SpaceX founder Elon Musk for the return flight to Earth.
47:33Bureau report, India Today.
47:39This is where we wrap up the news track tonight.
47:41For your time and your trust, thank you very much.
47:43I look forward to seeing you at 8pm tomorrow evening.
47:45Till then, from all of us here, goodbye, goodnight.