A CVoter poll revealed Tamil superstar Thalapathy Vijay is the second preferred candidate for Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister, trailing incumbent MK Stalin.
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00:00I want to take question number one and to my mind it is a bit of a shocker.
00:06Here it is on your screen now.
00:08A response which will track quite widely across Tamil Nadu.
00:12C voter has polled for the India Today group.
00:15And we're now saying that at this moment Tamil superstar Thalapathai Vijay
00:21is actually number two when it comes to the list of faces in the reckoning
00:28to be the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
00:31So you've got MK Stalin at number one.
00:33The incumbent Chief Minister at 27% preferred rating.
00:38Thalapathai Vijay, the Tamil superstar launching a new party
00:42looking to make waves on the ground has come in at a very strong number two.
00:48Remember his party has only recently got started.
00:50He hasn't been tested electorally yet.
00:53Before his first big test he's already at 18% personal popularity.
00:58This is not for his party but on the question of who should be Chief Minister
01:01and this is not an insignificant number.
01:0318% is significant.
01:05You've got Palanisamy coming in at 10%.
01:08The General Secretary of the AIADMK, the leader of the opposition on the ground.
01:13You've got Kiannamalai from the BJP in Tamil Nadu, the State President coming in at 9%.
01:19There is a possibility that Palanisamy and the BJP could ally.
01:24If that happens those numbers may change.
01:26But in the way things are at this moment.
01:28When sea water polled this week, Stalin came in at number one at 27%.
01:33And the big shock there, Thalapathai Vijay who's been doing well on the ground.
01:38Rallying crowds, getting people excited and charged up.
01:41But he's already at number two at 18%.
01:45So let me introduce you to our guests and then try and make sense of what's at play.
01:49Narayan Lakshman joins us, well known journalist.
01:52We've got Vinod Salvam joining us from the BJP.
01:55I've got A. Saravanan joining us from the DMK.
01:58I've Kovai Sathyan joining us from the AIADMK.
02:02Let me go across to Narayan Lakshman first.
02:05Is this in keeping with what you've been picking up anecdotally from the ground?
02:08An 18% approval rating for Chief Minister for Tamil superstar Vijay?
02:13Do you think he's at this moment in popularity ratings just next to Stalin?
02:17Look Rahul, I think it's quite possible that those are the results that you've picked up through surveys.
02:24It's not surprising at all.
02:26The reason for that is Tamil Nadu has a long and colourful history of getting excited about film stars.
02:32As we know, several of them have made fantastic political careers on the back of entering through the silver screen.
02:39Go all the way back to Karnanandi who's a script writer.
02:41Or you of course then have MGR himself.
02:44And then to a smaller extent and almost failing to make as big a splash in later years, Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan, several others made that attempt.
02:53Now, Vijay Talapathy again is in that early phase of his sort of straddling those two worlds, jumping across.
03:00And he's certainly magnetic personality in the film world.
03:06And he has dipped his toe into politics in a big way.
03:09Remains to be seen whether that film-based adulation amongst supporters, that mass support base can be converted into political mobilization.
03:20Therein lies the trick and the challenge and one that has caused many modern day film-based entrants to fail.
03:28Whereas their predecessors had a much greater magnitude of success.
03:32That's an important aspect that you're highlighting.
03:35The fact that he doesn't have a strong party structure.
03:37The fact that he's got this startup political formation.
03:40He also has Prashant Kishore backing him of the Jansolaj movement in Bihar.
03:45He's convinced that Vijay can be the next Chief Minister.
03:48How alarming is this Kovai Satyan from the AIADMK's perspective?
03:53Because you would have wanted that Palani Swami be seen as the natural challenger.
03:59It's at some level, it's a testament to the cult film-based popularity of Vijay.
04:06And the absence of stature and credibility of Palani Swami to the same extent.
04:10That when people are asked who is the alternative, you've got Stalin and then comes in Vijay.
04:16So this is the resultant of the media share that DMK commands in Tamil Nadu.
04:24They command more than 80%.
04:26And whatever news that has to come out, it will only come out from the DMK side and MK Stalin's side.
04:32For the last three years, I've been saying in the rallies wherever I go in Tamil Nadu,
04:36the lead actor in Tamil Nadu is not Vijay, Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan or Rajiv Kumar.
04:41It is MK Stalin. That's what he has done for the last four years.
04:45So that is a resultant of your survey.
04:47The assembly doesn't show what opposition leader is speaking.
04:53And we don't have any presence in the front-line media.
04:56You know it pretty well.
04:58And when the entire media is being threatened not to showcase anything that is happening on the ground and the reality.
05:06So far as an opposition leader, he has given more than 600 press releases which are not taken into debate.
05:11Which doesn't mean carried out by the front-line media in Tamil Nadu.
05:15You absolutely have zero presence in media. That's what the reality is.
05:19So when you have a survey, all I would say is, rather than prefer CM Kennedy,
05:22if you would have asked who is the lead actor in Tamil Nadu, the same result would have come.
05:25MK Stalin would have topped the chart. Even if you have conducted a survey with Rajinikanth.
05:29But that's a rhetorical response to an empirical question.
05:32The fact is, at this moment, Vijay is almost twice Palani Swami's ratings.
05:37And you can ascribe all kinds of motives to why that's the case.
05:40This is the political reality in which you'll have to fight the next election.
05:45I cannot make a generic statement. I don't know what's your sample survey and what's your age group.
05:51So let's not get into the market research and methodology of how the survey is being carried out.
05:55I don't want to question it. I'm just going by the numbers what you have thrown out as your survey results.
06:00But it's too early. You yourself are saying the party doesn't have a structure.
06:04Vijay's party doesn't have a structure on the ground.
06:07So it's still a long way to go. Perception keeps changing faster in politics.
06:12Let Saravanan respond to the AIDMK's charge that basically Vijay is the DMK's B team.
06:20That you're propping him up in the hope that he takes away some of the anti-incumbency votes.
06:25And Stalin can then, because the anti-government votes get split, Stalin and the DMK come back to power.
06:32See, Mr. Vijay is being propped up by the BJP, not anybody else. He's close to the BJP leaders.
06:39But he says, I heard his speech, he says at the centre the BJP is his enemy.
06:43So that's not really factually correct in terms of at least what he's saying publicly.
06:46See, there is a lot of difference, Rahul, when you say they are somebody's enemy and keeping quiet for what they have done.
06:54Have they ever criticised the BJP? See, all the problems in the state of Tamil Nadu can be directly attributed to the BJP.
07:01The way they are withholding funds, the way they are deceiving the people of Tamil Nadu.
07:06See, everything is attributed there. The way they trust their policies on a successful model here in the state of Tamil Nadu.
07:12But why is he keeping quiet? And like cinema, filmy style.
07:16Today he makes a statement, oh, they are saying that I have not spoken about taking names.
07:21I am saying now, Modi ji, you are my allergy. Is this how you criticise? In politics?
07:28Maybe in films, yes. But not in politics.
07:31And people of Tamil Nadu are a discerning set of people with great intellect.
07:35I don't think they are going to wade away.
07:38No, no. Again, you are giving a rhetorical response to a database question.
07:42It's not rhetoric. No, no, it's not rhetoric.
07:44Sir, within a short while, hear my question before you respond.
07:47Within a short while of this new party getting established, its leader Vijay comes in at number two already.
07:52Ahead of an established player like Palanisamy.
07:56If I was strategising for the DMK looking at those numbers, you would be quite concerned.
08:00You should be quite concerned.
08:02See, I wouldn't be concerned. Because if at all somebody has to be concerned, that is the ADMK party.
08:06If at all. See, likewise, the fight is always between the DMK and the ADMK.
08:14Whatever is said and done about the ADMK, the weak leadership, the way they have surrendered themselves to the BJP.
08:19The point is, they have a symbol, the two leaf symbol, which is very powerful.
08:24And the organisational support, up to the village level, they have organisational support.
08:28That, in an election, see, this is not a presidential referendum.
08:32Where, you know, you choose the CM candidate directly, it is through the MLAs.
08:36The MLAs are elected through the symbols.
08:38No, but it's happened in the past with MGR, with Jai Lalitha, with Karunanidhi.
08:42So, it's not new, especially in the context of Tamil Nadu politics.
08:45Yes, Rahul, you touched a very, very valid point.
08:47Yes, Mr. M.G. Ramachandran became the Chief Minister.
08:51He did not become the Chief Minister in 1976 by forming a party in 1975.
08:55He was speaking about, he was associating himself with the ADMK for 20 years.
09:00He spoke an ideology. He identified himself with that ideology.
09:03Same with Selvijaya Jai Lalitha.
09:05He did not start a party and become a Chief Minister overnight.
09:08Except Mr. N. T. Ramrao, Indian politics, nobody else has started a party in one year
09:14and has dreamt to become the Chief Minister in the next year and have been successful.
09:18That is not possible in Indian politics, Indian context.
09:20It's a different ball game altogether.
09:22So, it's not possible.
09:24Unnecessary, certainly not in the state of Tamil Nadu at all.
09:26Binod Selvam, from the BJP's lens, the fact that Talapathy Vijay has left the likes of Annamalai
09:33far behind his double Annamalai's ratings, do you think that's inevitable
09:37given the fact that he is the reigning superstar of Tamil Nadu politics?
09:45Rahul, let's very clearly remember that the TVK, Vijay's political party
09:50is still in kindergarten when we talk about politics.
09:53Here in Tamil Nadu, the culture of cinema, cinema is celebrated like a religion.
09:58So, people have a huge fan following, they say names, all that.
10:02But when it comes to elections, the scenario is entirely different.
10:06There was a very popular comedian called Vadivelu.
10:09He had won the hearts of everyone alike. He had no haters.
10:13But when he came out and campaigned for the DMK in 2011,
10:17DMK had the biggest defeat they had ever met in the last 20 years.
10:21But Vijay is Vijay. His stardom at this moment, sir, is comparable to Rajinikanth.
10:29Vijay is Vijay. Let it be. But a political party needs an organization.
10:36An organization which takes years of building.
10:39An organization which needs to come from the grass root.
10:42It is not something which is being formed by just giving statements once in three months,
10:48going and doing work from home politics, garlanding leaders' photos on stage
10:53inside your house in Paniyur, you know, inside a 12 feet compound.
10:57That is not politics. Politics takes a lot. Politics is what is being done by the DMK.
11:02Let me ask Narayan Lakshman that question. Do you think Vijay has worked enough
11:07on trying to build an organizational structure?
11:10Does he have what it takes to do the back end work required to build a party?
11:14You don't mute.
11:19Sorry, I just said to be witness an interesting phenomenon.
11:23Both DMK and BJP agreeing on one thing, which is that you need to work in politics,
11:28whether it's through the mode of ideology or party organization,
11:32before you can just claim your film and cinema credentials to boost yourself in the political world.
11:39And I think in that regard, Vijay definitely has a lot of homework to do.
11:44He has a very steep catching up curve because he's, I don't, you're absolutely right to say
11:49he is the reigning superstar of the moment. There's no doubt there.
11:52But again, even look at Rajinikanth. He faced a tremendous challenge in converting
11:57the fan clubs, the mandirams, into actual voters. There's a very...
12:01No, but Rajinikanth never formally joined politics. He never really threw himself.
12:04He kept toeing, tip toeing, flirting with the idea. He never dived head on.
12:09That is true. But if you were on the ground here, you would have been witness to many of the
12:14sort of machinations happening in the background, the attempts to build up a party organization.
12:19Unfortunately, they didn't go far at all. They never got past the baby steps phase.
12:24And this is the most challenging phase for Vijay, if you ask me.
12:29I think he really is in that liftoff phase where you have to get it off the ground.
12:32And this is also where there are giant gravitational pulls within the realm of Tamil Nadu politics,
12:38which can swallow you up. The DMK is extremely strong institutionally down to the village level,
12:43as was said in this panel. So is the ADMK, although they have this leadership vacuum issue.
12:48And the BJP is no paper tiger. They have a small footprint at the moment,
12:54but they are sparing no effort to build that up. So between all of them,
12:58it's actually a dangerous sort of ground that he's walking on.
13:02And he's going to have to pick a side very quickly if he hasn't already and openly go with it.
13:07Look, even look at Kamal Haasan. He was very clear that he in a larger interest of safeguarding what he described.
13:15Which side is Vijay most likely to pick? Yeah, I mean, I think I don't want to speculate.
13:21As an editor, I shouldn't do that. But we have to read the tea leaves going forward.
13:26So what are you reading from the tea leaves right now? Which side is he most likely to pick?
13:30I can't speculate, Rahul, sorry. I don't have the information, just rumors that I've heard.
13:35And I would prefer not to comment on that. Okay. The fact is that he's expecting that he would be projected as the main face.
13:41And that's one of the reasons why with the AIADMK his tie up hasn't happened.
13:45You can see what he said. He doesn't like the DMK at the state, doesn't like the BJP.
13:49So the natural alliance would be with a party like the AIADMK. But there the issue seems to be,
13:54he would like to be the main face with the AIADMK providing the structure.
13:59The AIADMK pushing back saying, are you delusional? You don't even have a structure.
14:03It is our structure you will ride on. So I think that's really where things are stuck.