Jeanne Shaheen Presses Expert On How Ties Between Russia, China, And DPRK Threatens Indo-Pacific

2 days ago

During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing Wednesday, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) spoke about the cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea.

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00:00Dr. Shah, you mentioned, and I think the other two panelists also suggested this, that the

00:10new cooperation between Russia and China and North Korea on the war in Ukraine is having

00:19an impact.

00:20Can you talk about the impact that that's having throughout the Indo-Pacific and the

00:26concerns that that raises with our other allies in the region?

00:36I'm happy to, Senator.

00:37So I think it has had sort of three effects.

00:42The first is it has clearly had an effect on the battlefield in the sense that 12,000

00:48North Korean troops in Kursk to try to regain some territory before peace negotiations start,

00:54you know, again, 50% of Russian munitions today reportedly is sourced from North Korea.

01:00These are having real impacts on the battlefield.

01:02That's the first point.

01:03The second is that it has really created a lot of concern among Indo-Pacific partners

01:10that anything is possible in Asia now.

01:15War in the middle of Europe that looks like a war from days past caused them to think

01:19not only is war in the Taiwan Straits possible, not only is war in the Korean Peninsula possible,

01:24but these things could happen at the same time through opportunistic aggression.

01:29For the first time, we've started getting inquiries from both South Korean and Taiwan

01:34friends to think more trilaterally about those sorts of dual-contingency scenarios.

01:39And then the third effect, I think, is it has really closed the gap between the way

01:44our European friends, our Indo-Pacific friends, think about security.

01:49There's no longer two theaters.

01:50It really is one theater.

01:51I have actually, I think in the past year, made more trips to Brussels than I have to

01:57the Indo-Pacific region because of all the interest in Asia.

02:01And the level of conversation I think my colleagues would agree in Europe on Indo-Pacific security

02:06now is at a much, much higher level than it was even a year ago.

02:10So those would be the three things I would say.

02:14Do either of you want to add to that?

02:16Yes, Dr. Mastro.

02:18Thank you, ma'am.

02:19I would add for the China-Russia relationship in particular, there are four main things

02:24that they are complicating for the United States.

02:27But first and foremost, their relationship is making it harder for the United States

02:31to deter the two countries independently.

02:34And then I think we can see with Ukraine, and I would predict it would be the same thing

02:37in the Indo-Pacific, it makes it harder for us to compel them to stop fighting.

02:41And the reasons for that is, first, these two countries, while they might not fight

02:45together in the sort of interoperable alliance framework, they are serving and building the

02:52ability to serve as a strategic rear to one another.

02:55So let me interrupt for a minute, because in some quarters, there's a suggestion that

03:00we can actually pull Russia away from China and separate the two of them.

03:07Can you speak to that?

03:08And Dr. Cha, you may want to speak to that as well as Mr. Shriver.

03:14I would say, generally speaking, I've done a historical review of the relationship since

03:171949, and the idea that you could present positive inducements or try to convince Russia,

03:23for example, that China is a greater threat than the United States or vice versa, is not

03:27going to work.

03:28The best strategy, if we had any hope of pulling them apart, is that for now, while European

03:33countries are more concerned about the Indo-Pacific, it is not the case that they are reacting

03:38to China as if China is such a strong partner to Russia.

03:42They still have very strong economic relations with China, and they're reluctant to punish

03:46China for that relationship.

03:48If the Chinese thought it would come at an economic cost, their relationship with Russia,

03:52I think they would be much better geared to pull apart.

03:55So NATO could play a greater role in that economic relationship with China to show them

04:01that they can't just get all the military benefits from Russia without some diplomatic

04:05and economic costs.

04:07Mr. Shriver, do you have any?

04:09I'd be highly suspicious of that endeavor, I think, particularly with Mr. Putin and Xi

04:16Jinping and the relationship that they've developed and the mutual reinforcing activities

04:22that have made them alliance-like.

04:26I'd also point out some people refer to this as the reverse Kissinger.

04:29Of course, when Kissinger courted China, China and Russia had already, then the Soviet Union,

04:35had already had a very significant falling out.

04:37So it wasn't creating a fissure, it was taking advantage of a fissure.

04:42Dr. Chang, anything to add?

04:44I was actually going to make a similar point as Randy's.

04:47I mean, I think in international relations, that sort of diplomacy only works if you occupy

04:52the pivot position where the other two sides are coming to you.

04:56That's what was happening with Kissingerian diplomacy between the Soviet Union and China.

05:02In this case, if we were to try a reverse Kissinger, it would be Russia that occupies

05:07the pivot position.

05:09And so for that reason, I think it would be suspect.

05:13Senator Ricketts.

Jeanne Shaheen Presses Expert On How Ties Between Russia, China, And DPRK Threatens Indo-Pacific

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