DNI Tulsi Gabbard delivers her opening statement at today's House Intel Committee hearing.
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00:00Chairman yields, now recognize Director Gabbard to make a statement on behalf of the intelligence
00:06community.
00:07Thank you very much, Chairman Crawford and Ranking Member Himes, members of the committee.
00:13Thank you for the opportunity for us to be here to present the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment.
00:19I'm joined here by my colleagues from the CIA, DIA, FBI, and NSA.
00:25Our testimony today offers the collective assessment of the 18 U.S. intelligence elements
00:30making up the U.S. intelligence community and draws on the intelligence collection and
00:35information available to the IC from open source and private sector and the expertise
00:40of our analysts.
00:41It evaluates what the IC assesses most threatens our people and our nation's ability to live
00:47in a peaceful, free, secure, and prosperous society.
00:52As you know very well, we face an increasingly complex threat environment that is threatening
00:57us here at home and our interests abroad.
01:00I'll begin by focusing on what most immediately and directly threatens the United States and
01:05the well-being of the American people, the non-state criminal groups and terrorists putting
01:09American lives and livelihood at risk.
01:13I'll then move on to focus on the key nation states who have the capability to threaten
01:17our security and the interests of the United States.
01:22Cartels, gangs, and other transnational criminal organizations in our part of the world are
01:25engaging in a wide array of illicit activity, from narcotics trafficking to money laundering,
01:31smuggling of illegal immigrants, and human trafficking, which endanger the health, welfare,
01:37and safety of everyday Americans.
01:40Based on our latest reporting available for the year-long period ending October 2024,
01:45cartels were largely responsible for the deaths of more than 54,000 American citizens due
01:51to synthetic opioids.
01:54Mexico-based transnational criminal organizations are the main suppliers of illicit fentanyl
01:58to the U.S. market and are quickly adapting to enforcement and regulatory pressures by
02:04using multiple sources and methods to procure precursor chemicals and equipment, primarily
02:10from China and India, many of which are dual-use chemicals used in legitimate industries.
02:16Illicit fentanyl producers are also increasingly fragmenting the drug trade in Mexico.
02:23The ready availability of precursor chemicals and ease of making illicit fentanyl have enabled
02:28independent actors to increase illicit fentanyl production and smuggling operations in Mexico.
02:34Cartels are profiting from human trafficking and have likely facilitated more than two
02:38million illegal immigrants encountered by law enforcement at the U.S. southwest border
02:43in 2024 alone, straining our vital resources and putting the American people at risk.
02:50Criminal groups drive much of the unrest and lawlessness in the Western Hemisphere.
02:55They also engage in extortion, weapons and human smuggling, and other illicit and dangerous
03:00revenue-seeking operations, including kidnapping for ransom, forced labor, and sex trafficking.
03:08While some of these key drivers of migrants are expected to persist, heightened U.S. border
03:12security enforcement and deportations under the Trump administration are proving to serve
03:17as a deterrent for migrants seeking to illegally cross our borders.
03:21U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions along the southwest border in January 2025 dropped 85
03:27percent from the same period in 2024.
03:31Transnational Islamist extremists such as ISIS and al-Qaeda and affiliated jihadi groups
03:36continue to pursue, enable, or inspire attacks against the United States and our citizens
03:42abroad and within the homeland to advance their ultimate objective of establishing a
03:48global Islamist caliphate.
03:52This includes heightened efforts to spread their ideology to recruit and radicalize individuals
03:56in the U.S. and the West.
03:59While the New Year's Day attacker in New Orleans had no known direct contact with ISIS terrorists,
04:05he was influenced and radicalized by ISIS ideological propaganda, as one example.
04:11Al-Qaeda and its affiliates continue to call for attacks against the United States as they
04:16conduct attacks overseas.
04:19These jihadist groups have shown their ability to adapt and evolve, including using new technology
04:25and tactics to spread their ideology and recruit new followers.
04:30A range of non-state cyber criminals are also targeting our economic interests, our
04:35critical infrastructure, and advanced commercial capability for extortion, other coercive pursuits,
04:40and financial gain.
04:43These actors are using a variety of tactics, including phishing, ransomware, and denial
04:47of service attacks to disrupt our systems and steal sensitive and lucrative information,
04:53using available technologies, and taking advantage of U.S. cyber vulnerabilities.
04:59Cyber actors last year, for example, attacked the largest payment processor for U.S. health
05:03care institutions, and another set of criminal actors conducted cyber attacks against U.S.
05:09water utilities.
05:11Some of these non-state cyber actors also operate as proxies for or emulate similar
05:16activities being carried out by major state actors.
05:20The IC sees China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea engaging in activities that could challenge
05:26U.S. capabilities and interests, especially related to our security and economy.
05:31They are in some cases working together in different areas to target U.S. interests and
05:35to protect themselves from U.S. sanctions.
05:39At this point, the IC assesses that China is our most capable strategic competitor.
05:44Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the People's Republic of China seeks to position itself
05:48as a leading power in the world stage, economically, technologically, and militarily.
05:54Beijing is driven in part by a belief that Washington is pursuing a broad effort to
05:58contain China's rise and undermine CCP rule.
06:03China's most serious domestic challenge is probably China's slowing economy and the potential
06:07instability that could occur if socioeconomic grievances lead to large-scale unrest.
06:13Growing economic tensions with the United States and other countries could also weigh
06:16on China's plans for economic growth and domestic job creation.
06:21China's military is fielding advanced capabilities, including hypersonic weapons, stealth aircraft,
06:27advanced submarines, stronger space and cyber warfare assets, and a larger arsenal of nuclear
06:33weapons.
06:34While it appears they would like to develop and maintain positive ties with the United
06:38States and the Trump administration to advance its own interests and avoid conflict, China
06:44is building its military capability in part to gain an advantage in the event of a military
06:49conflict with the United States around the issue of China's efforts towards unification
06:54with the Republic of China or Taiwan.
06:58Beijing is advancing its cyber capabilities for sophisticated operations aimed at stealing
07:03sensitive U.S. government and private sector information and pre-positioning additional
07:08asymmetric attack options that may be deployed in a conflict.
07:13China's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches, including
07:18last year's massive compromise of U.S. telecom infrastructure, commonly referred to as Salt
07:23Typhoon.
07:25Beijing currently dominates global markets and strategically important supply chains,
07:29for example, with the mining and processing of several critical minerals.
07:34In December, China imposed an export ban to the United States on gallium, germanium, and
07:40antimony, all of which are important to the production of semiconductors and our defense
07:44technologies.
07:46This was in direct response to U.S. export controls on chips designed to broadly limit
07:51PRC access to advanced chips and chip-making equipment.
07:57China also aims to compete in other critical global industries, including AI, legacy semiconductor
08:02chip production, biomanufacturing and genetic sequencing, and medical and pharmaceutical
08:08supply production.
08:11Russia's nuclear and conventional military capabilities, along with its demonstrated
08:15economic and military resilience, make it a formidable competitor.
08:19Moscow has more nuclear weapons than any other nation that could inflict catastrophic damage
08:24on the United States and the world in the event of a major war that Russian leaders
08:29feared put them and their regime at serious risk.
08:33In late 2024, Russia announced updates to its public nuclear doctrine, expanding the
08:38conditions under which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons.
08:43Russia is building a more modern and survivable nuclear force designed to circumvent U.S.
08:48missile defense through reliable retaliatory strike potential.
08:52It intends to deter the U.S. by holding the U.S. homeland at risk and by having the capabilities
08:58to threaten nuclear war in a conflict.
09:01Russia has developed advanced cyber capabilities and has attempted to pre-position access to
09:07U.S. critical infrastructure for asymmetric options and make it a persistent cyber threat.
09:14Russia's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches, including
09:18the 2023 hack of Microsoft.
09:21Russia is also fielding new capabilities and anti-satellite weapons meant to degrade U.S.
09:26and allied space infrastructure.
09:29Among Russia's most concerning developments is a new satellite intended to carry a nuclear
09:33weapon as an anti-satellite weapon, violating longstanding international law against such
09:38activity and putting the U.S. and global economy at risk.
09:44Iran continues to seek to expand its influence in the Middle East, despite the degradation
09:49to its proxies and defenses during the Gaza conflict.
09:54Iran has developed and maintains ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs, including
09:58systems capable of striking U.S. targets and allies in the region.
10:03They've shown a willingness to use these weapons, including during a 2020 attack on U.S. forces
10:07in Iraq and in attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.
10:13Iran's cyber operations and capabilities also present a serious threat to U.S. networks
10:18and data.
10:20The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader
10:24Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.
10:30We continue to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.
10:37In the past year, we've seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing
10:42nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making
10:48apparatus.
10:50Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a
10:54state without nuclear weapons.
10:58Iran will likely continue efforts to counter Israel and press for U.S. military withdrawal
11:02from the region by aiding, arming, and helping to reconstitute its loose consortium of like-minded
11:09terrorist actors, which it refers to as its axis of resistance.
11:14Although weakened, this collection of actors still presents a wide range of threats, including
11:20to Israel's population and U.S. forces deployed in Iraq and Syria, as well as U.S. and international
11:26military and commercial shipping and transit.
11:31North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is pursuing stronger strategic and conventional capabilities
11:35that can target U.S. forces and allies in the region, as well as the U.S. homeland,
11:41to bolster North Korea's leverage and stature, defend its regime, and achieve at least tacit
11:47recognition as a nuclear weapons power.
11:51Kim's recently cemented strategic partnership with Russia supports these goals by providing
11:56him with greater financial, military, and diplomatic support, reducing its reliance
12:01on China, and providing North Korean forces and weapons systems with warfighting experience.
12:08Kim views his strategic weapons advances, its deepening ties with Russia, and its economic
12:14durability as strengthening his negotiating position against Washington's demands for
12:18denuclearization and lessening Kim's need for sanctions relief.
12:25Since 2022, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have grown closer.
12:30Removing the accelerant of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to revert these bilateral relationships
12:35to a pre-war 2021 baseline, leaving room for new strategic priorities and world events
12:41to create new incentives or challenges to their expanded cooperation.
12:48Russia has been a catalyst for much of this expansion, driven heavily by the support it
12:52has needed for its war against Ukraine, including protection from U.S. and Western sanctions.
12:59In addition to exchange of military and other resource capabilities with North Korea, Russia
13:03has relied more heavily on China's financial and defense industry backing, and has increased
13:09combined military exercises with China.
13:13With Iran, Russia has also expanded financial ties to mitigate sanctions.
13:17Iran has become a critical military supplier to Russia, especially of UAVs, in exchange
13:22for Russian technical support for Iranian weapons, intelligence, and advanced cyber
13:26capabilities.
13:29The threats that we see to U.S. national security are both complex and multifaceted.
13:37In closing, I want to address briefly the signal chat issue that I know many of you
13:41are concerned about.
13:42The President and National Security Advisor, Waltz, held a press conference yesterday with
13:46a clear message.
13:48It was a mistake that a reporter was inadvertently added to a signal chat with high-level national
13:53security principals, having a policy discussion about imminent strikes against the Houthis
13:59and the effects of the strike.
14:03National Security Advisor has taken full responsibility for this, and the National Security Council
14:08is conducting an in-depth review, along with technical experts working to determine how
14:14this reporter was inadvertently added to this chat.
14:19The conversation was candid and sensitive, but as the President and National Security
14:23Advisor stated, no classified information was shared.
14:28There were no sources, methods, locations, or war plans that were shared.
14:33This was a standard update to the National Security Cabinet that was provided alongside
14:39updates that were given to foreign partners in the region.
14:46The Signal Message app comes pre-installed on government devices.
14:51In December of 2024, CISA stated, quote, we strongly urge highly targeted individuals
14:56to immediately review and apply best practices provided in the guidance to protect mobile
15:01communications, including consistent use of end-to-end encryption.
15:06And they named Signal as an app as an example of such an end-to-end encrypted messaging
15:11app.
15:12Ideally, these conversations occur in person.
15:15However, at times, fast-moving coordination of an unclassified nature is necessary, where
15:21in-person conversation is not an option.
15:25I'm also aware that a lawsuit was filed yesterday on this issue.
15:29As a result of that pending litigation, I'm limited in my ability to comment further on
15:34that specific case.
15:36My Office of General Counsel will be in close contact with the Department of Justice on
15:40this matter.
15:43The most important thing to the American people and to all of us is the success of this military
15:49operation against terrorists who have been and continue to attack American service members
15:54was extremely successful, thanks to the leadership of President Trump and the actions of our
16:00brave men and women in uniform.
16:03As the heads of the American people's intelligence community, we will continue to provide the
16:08President, you in Congress, and our warfighters with timely, unbiased, relevant intelligence
16:16to keep our country secure, free, prosperous, and at peace.
16:21Thank you, Mr. Chairman.