The US is optimistic about ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, as talks on a partial ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia begin in Saudi Arabia.
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00:00For more on the talks in Saudi Arabia, we're joined by Joshua Shiffernson from the Center
00:04of International and Security Studies of the University of Maryland.
00:07Ukrainian officials are meeting with their American counterparts.
00:10The Americans and Russians speak tomorrow.
00:13How can you bring together two sides that refuse to sit at the same table?
00:18Well, so what the United States is doing right now is what's called classic shuttle diplomacy.
00:23The United States is literally the U.S. delegation is literally shuttling between different talks.
00:29And I think the way to get the Ukrainians and the Russians to the same table is to actually
00:33come to some basic understanding, some basic framework for some degree of a ceasefire,
00:38which can then be seen as a mutually accommodating or mutually constraining agreement.
00:43And that's going to bring all parties to the table and hopefully catalyze more direct conversation
00:47between Russians and Ukrainians from there.
00:49But that basic framework is anything but basic.
00:53It's extremely complicated considering these two sides are so far apart.
00:59Yes, when I say basic framework, I simply mean a initial ceasefire agreement.
01:05Right now we're discussing ceasefires on energy infrastructure, perhaps a technical moratorium
01:09that would allow for Black Sea traffic.
01:12Once those initial basic understandings are in place, they can catalyze a further dialogue.
01:17But as you say, the overall course of the conflict, the sources of the conflict are
01:21nuanced.
01:22It's not going to be a complicated ceasefire deal.
01:24The Russian position, the Ukrainian position are very far apart.
01:27And certainly the United States, which wants to wash its hands of much of the conflict,
01:32is not making things any easier by imposing a very stark time delay or time limitation
01:36upon itself.
01:37At the same time, let me put this to you.
01:39Russia has been ramping up military and political pressure on Kiev ahead of the talks.
01:43Sergei Beseda is part of the Russian delegation.
01:46He was one of the intelligence officials who convinced Putin to invade.
01:51What does that tell you?
01:52Well, it tells me a couple of things.
01:55Number one, it lets me know that the Russians could be ramping up pressure largely because
01:59they do expect to reach some kind of ceasefire, which could freeze the line of contact, freeze
02:06the political status quo in Ukraine.
02:07So they're trying to get as much as they possibly can ahead of any ceasefire talks.
02:11That's point number one.
02:13Point number two, by sending an official who was responsible in many ways for the opening
02:17salvos of the conflict or played a key role in the opening of the conflict to end the
02:21conflict, Russia is basically putting someone who has great internal political credibility
02:26as a hawk, as a hardliner, to bring the conflict to an end, which would actually make might
02:30make it politically easier for Putin both to agree to a ceasefire, but also blame someone
02:35if the thing falls apart.
02:38Is there something in all of this that gives you hope that we could get somewhere?
02:44Well, the fact that the two sides are talking at all, or at least talking through the Americans,
02:49is certainly an optimistic sign.
02:51And also, and I think your correspondent alluded to this, all sides of the conflict seem to
02:56have realized that the conflict is now in some kind of hurting stalemate, where neither
03:00side, given what they are willing to mobilize, willing to commit to the conflict, seems to
03:04be able to make a breakthrough on the battlefield.
03:08And under those conditions, it's not unreasonable for them to expect to turn to a negotiating
03:13table to try to ramp down the conflict, because if neither side can make a military victory,
03:18you might as well settle diplomatically while you can.
03:21And Josh, what do you think about the Trump administration's choice of Saudi Arabia as
03:24host of the talks?
03:27Well, certainly Saudi Arabia is not the kind of actor that you want to give legitimacy
03:32to, credibility to, any more than you have to.
03:35At the same time, because it's on the one hand a very large oil exporter, therefore
03:40it has ties to Russia, on the other hand, a key American ally, and therefore has some
03:44degree of connections to Riyadh, it's in some ways the best of all terrible options as a
03:49meeting ground.
03:50But long term, of course, it would be better if there were another negotiating partner.
03:54And certainly we're going to need other actors to bless and sanctify and certify any ceasefire
04:00negotiation beyond just Saudi.
04:03You heard it from Joshua Shiffernson.
04:05Thank you very much for your analysis.
04:06Great having you on the show.