As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nears a three-year mark, there is a sign of a possible end to the war. The new US administration is pushing forward with its peace plan, but Washington, Kyiv and Moscow have different interpretations of what this "peace" might represent.
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00:00Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet the U.S. Vice President at the Munich Security Conference
00:05by the end of the week in what is expected to bring, for the first time, some sense of
00:10clarity over how Washington sees the end of the war in Ukraine.
00:14Expectations in Kyiv are both very high and very cautious.
00:18Could Ukraine be forced into territorial concessions?
00:21What we could see in Ukraine is a situation where a peace agreement follows certain lines
00:28where Ukraine is able to avoid a de jure concession of territory to Russia.
00:37In a de facto sense, it's going to be very hard for Ukraine to physically reclaim that
00:42territory under the present circumstances.
00:47But if Ukraine can avoid a de jure solution that gives territory to Russia, it can at
00:55some point in the future reclaim that territory.
00:58Of course, we understand that de-occupying all of the occupied territories in the military
01:04way, it's probably very difficult, if not impossible, at least at this point where we
01:12are at in 2025.
01:15But saying that, hey, you know, it's Russia, let's forget it, it cannot happen.
01:22And we do think that people on the occupied territories, which is basically a black hole
01:28with no human rights respect whatsoever, their interests have to be on the table as well.
01:38Kravchuk says any deal would also need to guarantee that Russia would not come back
01:42in a few years after regrouping and preparing better, especially given Ukraine's bitter
01:47experience with the so-called Minsk agreements after Russia's first invasion in 2014.
01:52The Minsk agreements was without the United States.
01:55And it also proves that this format, just Europe, without the involvement of the president
02:02of the United States, doesn't really work.
02:04So what are the security guarantees?
02:06And I really hope that during the Munich security conference, this issue will be addressed.
02:11You know, we don't need another Minsk, but we also do not need another Budapest memorandum.
02:16Well, obviously, Europe wouldn't be able to make up for it for the United States, either
02:20politically or in practical material terms.
02:23The new administration, I think, has understood the importance of Ukraine and the importance
02:30of maintaining a coherent approach with Europe.
02:35And so I would hope that that continues.