Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst with Eurasia Group, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the ongoing ceasefire talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, what the deal entails, and whether it will come to fruition.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Tinintin Japarizze, an analyst with Eurasia Group. Tinintin, thank you so much for joining
00:11me. Thank you so much, Brittany. Thrilled to be here. We are in a really fluid situation.
00:17The topic that we're talking about is ever changing by the day. It seems like by the
00:22hour at some points. So I do want to note where we are right now. It's Friday morning,
00:26about eleven o'clock eastern time when you and I are talking. And a U.S. envoy was in
00:31Moscow on Thursday negotiating with Putin, negotiating with Russia about ceasefire talks
00:37with Ukraine. And Putin agrees with the idea of a ceasefire. But he said that there are
00:42some issues with the deal as it is. And as we know, Ukraine accepted this deal as is.
00:47It's a U.S.-backed proposal. They accepted earlier this week. So to start off the conversation,
00:53can you talk about what exactly is in this deal?
00:55Well, that's a fantastic question, Brittany. And and at this point, we know very little
01:01about the substance of the deal. But it is clear already that it remains very much a
01:06work in progress. As you said, it's such a fluid situation. So the specifics that were
01:11negotiated during the discussions between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Saudi
01:16Arabia earlier in the week have not been made public public yet. But ultimately, I think
01:22that the content will be very much shaped by Moscow to reflect Russia's stance and what
01:28Vladimir Putin is willing to accept for him to actually come to the table in a tangible
01:34way. Now, for context, initially, Ukraine had outlined three of their main demands,
01:41and that was halting all aerial attacks. So Russia and Ukraine are still at this very
01:45moment exchanging missile and drone strikes, especially drone strikes from the Ukrainian
01:49side. But Russia is using any and every available weapon. Ensuring quiet seas for the safe transport
01:57of shipping goods is is another demand and the release of all prisoners of war and civilian
02:02detainees. There's also a key question for Ukraine of security guarantees. But the extent
02:10of agreement between Washington and Moscow on this issue is yet to be determined. I'm
02:15personally quite skeptical. I think satisfying this condition is likely to fall short of
02:21President Zelensky's expectations. And then additionally, just to show how fluid this
02:25process is and the conditions are constantly evolving. As you may recall, Kiev had initially
02:31refused to sign any agreement hinting at ceding territory occupied by Russian forces. But
02:37as U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said on Wednesday, the day after the Saudi talks, he said the
02:43conversations about territorial concessions had taken place at the meeting, which added
02:48another layer of uncertainty and ambiguity. So there are many unknowns about what will
02:53be included in the final agreement. But what matters right now is that the ball is now
02:58in both Washington and Moscow's courts. I think what we're seeing are a lot of concessions
03:04for Ukraine already before the deal was even brought to Russia. So what is really the likelihood
03:09of Russia signing it? Because if Putin is saying there's issues with this as is, he
03:13said he wants a plan that will bring, quote, long term peace and eliminate the root causes
03:17of this crisis. So what are some more of those concessions that he's looking for?
03:22So as you said earlier, Putin emphasized yesterday that Russia supports the idea of a ceasefire.
03:28But certain nuances, as he put it, are still very much top of mind for the Russian side.
03:34So it was more of a yes, but with a very sort of emphasized, underlined, underscored
03:41but as part of Moscow's posturing, I think, rather than an outright no. An unconditional
03:47ceasefire is definitely not on the table for the Russians. And Putin is clearly not dropping
03:52his maximalist demands. I think it's going to be quite the contrary, really, depending
03:56on the day of the week, how they're performing on the battlefield, what the general mindset
04:02is in Moscow, and so on. So until Putin talks directly to Donald Trump to address these
04:08so-called nuances, because let's face it, he will not be negotiating with Ukrainian
04:13President Zelensky, whom he has described on numerous occasions as an illegitimate leader.
04:19So the full scope of the deal, specific to Russian counters, which I think there will
04:23be many, and details including down the line mechanisms for monitoring, enforcement, etc.,
04:29will all be unclear. So in terms of how likely the Russians are to sign on, I think it's
04:38really going to be a very close call, Brittany, until there is ink on the page, literally
04:44and metaphorically. But I do think that at the moment, as of right now, Friday afternoon,
04:50Friday late morning, rather, in Washington, it is going to happen. This is going to be
04:55good for Putin's relationship with Trump. So that's one of the reasons why I think he
05:00will do it, because if he does hand Trump a win, which is what Trump so desperately
05:06wants, no matter how fragile the ceasefire turns out to be, this can help Putin down
05:11the line in extracting more concessions from the US, including on European security, control
05:18over Ukraine's foreign policy alignment, etc., etc. And even 30 days, even, you know,
05:25the 30 days, I mean, it's not a lot of time, it's a very short span of time. But nonetheless,
05:30this does help Russia militarily to regroup and rearm, because it's very likely that
05:37even if there is a ceasefire, it'll be fragile, and he will probably more than likely reinvade.
05:43So the fear for him, of course, is that Ukraine will also use this time to regroup and rearm
05:48and be in better shape to resist any Russian offensive, which is why I do think that in
05:52terms of one of Putin's preconditions, he is going to push for the West to halt all
05:58weapons deliveries to Ukraine during the truce, so that the Ukrainians don't also use that
06:03time to rearm and regroup.
06:06To your point about Putin, even yesterday, he reportedly said something to the effect
06:11of I would like to get on the phone with President Trump, or perhaps I would get on the phone
06:14with President Trump to have a conversation with him directly about this. As an expert
06:20in the region, is there anything about how this deal came to fruition? Anything that's
06:25happened in the past couple of days that sticks out to you that surprises you?
06:30Well, in terms of how the deal came to fruition, obviously, this was something that Trump had
06:36talked about from the days he started campaigning. So this was always going to be one of the
06:43top of mind issues for Trump. And it's a very personal issue in a way for him because
06:48he needs to show that individual quick win. So his ambition to end the war, at least to
06:53achieve a temporary ceasefire, to secure a quick victory, has been a crucial factor.
06:59So Trump is a very important factor here. His team will keep appealing to the Russians
07:06to build on the momentum, I'm sure, and secure some sort of an immediate win, at least on
07:11paper, just to showcase the effectiveness of his approach. And in a way, this has been
07:18a combination over the past few days, and will continue to be a combination of both
07:22carrots and sticks. I think more of the former, more carrots than sticks from the US side,
07:28for now, at least. Although, as you know, we already started seeing some sticks as well
07:33just yesterday, after Putin's rather lukewarm response to the ceasefire proposal, which
07:39President Trump said was a positive response. But I think many in Washington felt that it
07:44was rather lukewarm, and he was trying to stretch the time. Washington toughened sanctions
07:48on Russian energy and banking sectors, for example. This was not all that surprising.
07:54It was quite expected, because President Trump had stated about a week ago that he was going
08:00to consider sweeping sanctions on Russia until there's a ceasefire to make sure that some
08:05sort of a deal does come to fruition. He wants quick results. But the thing is, Putin
08:12does not need quick results, right? He is quite comfortable where he is right now. So
08:16he's not quite ready to play ball unless it's on his terms. And I think it's also worth
08:23highlighting, Brittany, here that we're not just talking about the Ukraine deal, the Russia-Ukraine
08:29ceasefire deal, when it comes to the US role. But there's another track that we are watching
08:35unfold in real time, and they are in some ways attached to each other, but they're also
08:40quite separate. And that is the fact that the US is navigating this other track of achieving
08:46an immediate end to the conflict that also allows to normalize relations with Russia.
08:52I think ending the war and normalizing relations with Russia, at least as far as the Trump
08:58administration is concerned, they're not necessarily one in the same for Donald Trump.
09:04So in a way, what I would be very interested to see is to what degree Putin will give Trump
09:11what he needs, even if these are not necessarily concessions from the Russian side, just to
09:17allow Donald Trump to start normalizing relations with Moscow without too much pushback from
09:24his administration. Because then he can say, look, he agreed with us on this 30-day deal.
09:32We need to now start thinking about how to reengage with Russia going forward. That will
09:37be very, very interesting to watch. And to what degree these two tracks will diverge
09:43every now and then. But then every now and then, I think they will be on the same track.
09:49Right now, you're saying the ball's in Russia's court. As we know, a little over three years
09:53ago, they invaded Ukraine, hence starting the war here. Now the ball's in their court.
10:00They can end the war. There will be relationships between the United States and Russia will
10:05be somewhat normalized. Is Russia coming out the real winner here?
10:11I think whether he realizes it or not, the way that President Trump is negotiating with
10:19Russia, he is putting Russia in a very strong position. They have been in a stronger position
10:25compared to Ukraine over the past months for sure. But in terms of weakening Putin's stance,
10:34I think Donald Trump is very cautious because he also understands that Putin could take
10:40this very personally. I think a lot of what we are seeing unfold at the moment, Brittany,
10:45is both political but also personal, both for Trump and for Putin. And that's why the
10:53two sides are going to try to ensure that the other, if not internationally, at least
11:00domestically, does look like a winner, but certainly not as a loser. So that, again,
11:05the other is not motivated to think about some sort of a backlash to retaliate.
11:12That was a really delicate dance and an interesting take that Putin could take this personally.
11:17Trump could take this personally. That must make negotiations more difficult, more tenuous.
11:24Have you ever seen that in your experience with geopolitical stances, geopolitical issues,
11:30the two leaders that could take things personally going into a room and negotiating?
11:37I think this is the first time that we are seeing something unfold that is so personal
11:43for the two leaders, partly because they also do go way back. I mean, even before President
11:50Trump became president, when Donald Trump was doing business in Russia, there was that
11:55relationship already there with the Kremlin. So it's not as though the two leaders just
12:01met over this situation in Ukraine, and this is the first time that they're negotiating.
12:07Trump is certainly treating this as more of a transactional business relationship and
12:12a business negotiation. And for Putin, I do think there is a degree of a transactional
12:20approach, but also we are dealing with a leader who has been in power for about 25 years now.
12:28So he needs to stay in power. He needs to show a strong position and a strong win at
12:33home, because at the end of the day, if he does not show to his own people, to the Russian
12:39people, that everything that transpired over the last few years, all of the lives that
12:44were lost, the discomforts that were created through Western sanctions and other ways that
12:49have sort of isolated Russia from the rest and not just the West, I think that will be
12:56a hard sell for him. So he needs to show something concrete, even if it's not perhaps as tangible
13:02as he would like for it to be, because he needs to essentially tell his own people,
13:05look, all of this did not go to waste. We are emerging from this, as he calls it, the
13:11special military operation, code for war, without saying the word war, that we emerged
13:18from this as winners and we're the victors here.
13:21As you and I are talking right now, the situation is very fluid. I keep checking my phone. There
13:26aren't updates yet, but President Trump did post on Truth Social Friday morning. He said
13:31this. We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday,
13:36and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an
13:39end. That characterization sounds a little more optimistic than what you and I have been
13:44talking about, what the the lukewarm response from President or Russia's President Putin
13:50from Russia reporting. But what are you looking out for next? Because this is a very fluid
13:55situation, as you and I have been saying.
13:59It certainly is, Brittany. It certainly is. And the negotiations could extend over several
14:04weeks, I think. And I think the statement, similar to what we heard from President Trump,
14:11they will be recurring over the coming days as well. One day, the signals and the messaging
14:16will be very positive. The next day, less so. And this back and forth is bound to drive
14:21all of us a little bit crazy, those of us who are monitoring the situation very, very
14:26closely. But ultimately, I think the bottom line is that it's likelier to get signed this
14:33deal rather than not, at this point in time, at least. And if it does happen, we're probably
14:39looking at something getting signed in perhaps May or June, depending on when that meeting
14:45happens. I mean, again, on that front, in terms of mixed messages, we were thinking
14:49that a phone call or a meeting would happen over the coming days or weeks. Now we're hearing
14:55from the Russian side that it's likelier to happen sometime between April and May or potentially
15:01even early June. Either way, I think before the summer vacation period kicks off, that
15:06meeting will happen. And that meeting will essentially determine what sort of a deal
15:10we're looking at and when it's getting signed. But again, predicting the outcome in this
15:15environment is very difficult. If a truce is imposed, I think the focus will be on whether
15:20it leads to any meaningful peace talks and a political resolution, a political settlement
15:26to the war, rather than just a temporary halt in fighting. For Trump, a temporary halt in
15:31fighting is enough. For Russia, it really depends when Vladimir Putin decides that he
15:37would like to continue his operations in Ukraine and he would like to reinvade Ukraine. He
15:43can start doing so whenever he decides that he's ready, that he has regrouped and rearmed.
15:49And it's really Ukraine at this point and other Western actors that are Ukraine supporters
15:56and partners of Kiev that want this to be about an actual settlement, a long-term settlement
16:05rather than something that halts the fighting for 30 days. So we'll see. But I think for
16:11now, as you said, we're holding off to see what happens between Trump and Putin. By the
16:17way, with the U.S. envoy coming back from Moscow, there were some messages that Vladimir
16:24Putin sent with him to Washington after last night's meeting in Russia. So it remains to
16:31be seen what Steve Woodcock actually brought back and whether or not we will hear about
16:35the details. But the next signpost for me is probably that phone call or a meeting between
16:40Putin and Trump to determine the next tangible steps going forward.
16:46And to your point, Zelensky has said essentially Putin is a bad faith actor when it comes to
16:51negotiations. He really won't say no outright, but he doesn't really want a solution. So
16:56as the expert here, as someone who's really been monitoring the situation, what do you
17:00think or what what's the writing on the wall here? What do you think is missing from the
17:06conversation?
17:08Well, I think what is missing is an understanding, a sober understanding of the fact, especially
17:16by the U.S. side here, that Russia is not really interested in peace. Putin does not
17:24want peace, but he wants Ukraine. And until he gets Ukraine to capitulate, he might put
17:30this off and he might wait for a better environment for himself to try to get Ukraine to capitulate
17:38using force. At the moment, it's clear that Putin is considering taking a pause because
17:45he understands that exerting more pressure on the Ukrainian side right now through negotiations
17:52with the U.S. leading the negotiations and doing so in a way still more abiding by Russian
17:58interests, I would say, less so the Ukrainian interests, is going to help Vladimir Putin.
18:04So he will be willing to take a pause because he probably will think that there is something
18:10to be gained in this situation through talks, through diplomacy. But that does not mean
18:17that he will be giving up on using military force anytime soon. I think those aspirations,
18:23those imperial ambitions will outlive any and every ceasefire deal that Russia signs
18:29anytime soon. And I think that is worth thinking about long and hard for mediators like the
18:34United States to understand what Putin's objectives are down the line and not just the immediate
18:40next steps.
18:42I think that's a really important piece, and I think that's a good place to end as of now.
18:48But, Tinetan, as we said, these conversations are ongoing. And I hope as we see developments,
18:53you come back on and join me. Thank you so much for your expertise. You are welcome back
18:56anytime.
18:57Thank you so much. Pleasure to be here. I look forward to seeing you again soon.