Ketidakpastian terkait kebijakan tarif impor baja dan aluminium sebesar 25% oleh Presiden Donald Trump terus memicu kekhawatiran atas dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di Amerika Serikat.
Lantas, seberapa tinggi concern pelaku pasar soal dampak perang dagang dan inflasi Amerika Serikat ini?
Simak ulasannya dalam "Market Buzz".
Lantas, seberapa tinggi concern pelaku pasar soal dampak perang dagang dan inflasi Amerika Serikat ini?
Simak ulasannya dalam "Market Buzz".
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us, Pemirsa, at the MarketBus, and now we're going to take a look at the Spotlight market, which is interesting for us to discuss in this episode at MarketBus,
00:14among which are ESG prices, which closed down 0.57% at level 6,598, the market reacted to China's economic data and the US.
00:24Technology also led the sectoral strengthening, up 5.44%, namely the DCIE stock, back to the top auto-reject, strengthening 10% to level 169,950 per share.
00:36Then the banking sector, ESG and self-development, fell by 2.6% and became some decaps, which then experienced a deep weakness.
00:47And next we will take a look at the economic agenda of the US, there is data about the role of the NRT prospect in the short term, EIA.
00:54Then also from the UK, there is a monitoring of retail sales, BRC.
00:58Then also from Japan, there are domestic products, in the fourth quarter of 2014.
01:03And there is data on the amount of circulating money, and in Indonesia there is data on the index of consumer trust.
01:09And from a new study, there is a sales of manufacturers.
01:13Agenda M10, BBRI, General Meeting of Stockholders, then also HRTA, RUPO, the second consecutive obligation emission.
01:23Next are the Asian major stock markets this morning.
01:27Compact opened weakening, with Nikkei weakened 2.72%, at level 36,021.
01:33STI Singapore weakened 1.51%, at level 3,840.
01:38KOSPI Korea opened weakening 2.12%, at level 2,515.
01:44And Hang Seng Hong Kong opened weakening 1.74%.
01:52What is the impact of the ASEAN-Asia trade war on the domestic market?
02:00For this morning's discussion, we will discuss the impact of the ASEAN-Asia trade war on the domestic market.
02:06Already connected through video conference, there is Mr. Praska Putrantjo, CEO of the advisor.id.
02:11Good morning, Mr. Praska.
02:13Good morning, Mr. Segi.
02:15Thank you for joining us on the marketbust, Mr. Praska.
02:18If we talk about what the market will react to,
02:22some dynamics related to the trade war, which is getting hotter,
02:28and there is also data related to China's deflation.
02:32So far, these have become two big issues,
02:37which then affect the decision-making of global market players.
02:44And what needs to be anticipated in the Nordic region?
02:47I remember yesterday, the ASEAN-Asia trade war weakened significantly, Mr. Praska.
02:52Yes, if we look at it, the issue of the trade war is very much related to the escalation of the KOT.
02:58So the ASEAN-Asia trade war was very fluctuant.
03:02If I recap, it was a very active trade war throughout the day yesterday.
03:06And if we look at the foreign investors,
03:10even though we were able to rebound a little in the last 2-3 days,
03:18but if I recap, foreign investors are still net sales,
03:22with an accumulation of 991 billion.
03:27It means that foreign investors are not yet fully confident to enter the emerging markets in Indonesia.
03:33Even if we look at the issue of trade war,
03:36we can see not only the US vs China,
03:39but also the spread of the trade war between Canada and China.
03:49On the other hand, the sentiment of the Rupiah market has also weakened.
03:52If I'm not mistaken, the Rupiah market has weakened again.
03:55The value of USD has increased from 16,290 to 16,340.
04:05This means that the weakness of the Rupiah market has also given a little pressure.
04:09Because the S&P market has also increased.
04:11In addition, what was quite devastating yesterday
04:16was the inflation index of China for a year, which entered a deflationary phase.
04:22At the same time, the deflation rate returned to what it was before.
04:27It was recorded at the beginning of January 2024 at minus 0.7.
04:34Because of the slowdown, there was momentum for the festival,
04:42namely the IMLAC, at the end of January.
04:46So, the concern about the trade war that has been noted through the slowdown of China's inflation rate
04:54is also given an impact.
04:56Yesterday, at the same time, the US-China trade war fell apart
05:02because of the concern about the effect of efficiency in the US government
05:06coupled with the US-China trade war entering a hard landing condition
05:13or entering a recession.
05:15In addition, if the US data is released yesterday,
05:18the unemployment rate increased by 0.1,
05:21plus the unemployment rate rose below expectations.
05:27Related to the trade war itself or various retaliatory actions,
05:32the possibility of inflation in the US will also be high.
05:36This may also affect expectations,
05:39related to the decline of the FED itself,
05:42or maybe this is not the main concern of the market players, Mr. Praska?
05:50Yes, regarding the FED, the release date will be around March 20,
05:59which in my opinion is also expected by the market.
06:02But in my opinion, it seems that the market has generally projected that
06:07the FED will not be used because,
06:09considering the high inflation rate yesterday,
06:12the FED has reached 3%.
06:15This is also an alarm in the midst of the US condition
06:19which is still quite stable with high inflation.
06:25Therefore, with the release date of the FED,
06:28there is also competition.
06:29As you can see here, it is starting to show weaknesses.
06:32Because indeed, from the central bank policy,
06:35even though the FED did not fall,
06:37but the government will try to intervene through the balance sheet.
06:40So, the US obligation is not wrong.
06:43The US dollar from the 10-year trend has fallen to the level of 4.2%,
06:52up to 4.17%.
06:55So it has a direct impact on the weakening of the US dollar.
07:01Sorry, in terms of world currency, yesterday the US dollar fell to level 103,
07:06from level 10 to level 106.
07:08And in my opinion, this is also a good tool for the Trump administration
07:12to be able to push the domestic economy,
07:15while at the same time hoping to control inflation like that.
07:18By maintaining a stable relationship.
07:20The fact that there is data related to inflation in China
07:23makes investors more concerned about the level of consumption in the country.
07:28China itself will have various kinds of commodities,
07:31which may also have an impact on the decline in purchases of commodity products to China.
07:39We also know that Indonesia is also one of the countries that exports commodities to China.
07:46But one thing that was said by the Chinese government itself,
07:50related to the stimulus that will increase consumption and promote innovation in manufacturing,
07:55how far can this be a regulator or maybe a deterrent
08:00from global, Asian and domestic exchanges, Mr. Preska?
08:06Yes, so related to the slow down of domestic inflation, this is indeed a concern.
08:11But with the innovation of the Chinese government in manufacturing,
08:18in my opinion, it is not too much of a sentiment that is considered by the market.
08:23Why? Because it is actually considered by the market
08:26that with the slowdown of domestic inflation entering the deflationary phase,
08:31it makes the price of commodities again potentially experience a correction.
08:36It can be seen here from the point of view of the copper commodity price
08:39and also the crude oil commodity price, which is experiencing a slowdown.
08:44So it is still experiencing a deterrence,
08:46aside from the slowdown of the global economy,
08:49but also from the point of view of the fall of the commodity price,
08:54the fall of the commodity price, whether it is inflation or not,
08:56becomes an alarm from the community,
08:58especially the copper, which is currently experiencing pressure like that.
09:03Okay, HSG fell 0.57% in trading yesterday at 6,598.
09:08Are there any other concerns?
09:11Is this only affected by the sentiment of the stock market?
09:15Or maybe you see other catalysts that burdened HSG yesterday?
09:21If I look here, more to the catalyst, it is indeed a trade issue.
09:25Second, the release of China's data, the inflation fell 0.7%.
09:28So, what worries me is that there is already an impact.
09:32The trade issue is indeed a result of demand,
09:35actually from China's economic development,
09:38such as in the momentum phase yesterday.
09:43But if you look here, the commodity market is still a concern.
09:46The second is, in my opinion, more to the weakness of the Rupiah market,
09:50which has weakened again above level 16,300.
09:54Even though it had previously experienced a weakness.
09:58Is the commodity-based Samsung being scrutinized first,
10:02not included first, or what?
10:04Remembering data from China itself, as we discussed earlier, Mr. Praska.
10:10So, in my opinion, all Samsung commodities,
10:13including copper, mica, and also minerals,
10:17especially copper, I think it's better to put it there first.
10:21On the other hand, the sentiment does not only come from China's economic development,
10:26but also if we look at it from the domestic point of view,
10:29it is a plan to increase or adjust the royalty rate on minerals.
10:33So, the commodities that are positioned in minerals are minerals and copper.
10:37All of this experienced a fall yesterday,
10:40because the increase in Rupiah is likely to burden the money of each commodity,
10:46so that the outlook is less good this year.
10:49Okay, that means it's better to avoid it first, right?
10:52Yes.
10:53Okay, if we look at Samsung commodities that are included in the Top Gainers list,
10:56among them, there is copper, which is 4.87%,
10:58then there is also indium, which is 4.17%,
11:01and there is also cement from Indonesia,
11:03which is based on the basic industry, 3.39% consumer goods,
11:07and the basic industry notes the strengthening.
11:10What is it that investors are trying to pay attention to in these three stocks?
11:17For example, if we look at the Top Gainers,
11:19which is the highest in leading the strengthening in yesterday's hearing.
11:25Yes, so for Cepin, of course,
11:28the short-term catalyst plan, indeed,
11:31the sentiment of the Indonesian Commodities Group,
11:35especially in terms of spending on coal,
11:38pushes an interesting demand for coal.
11:43But actually, it's more towards the holiday momentum.
11:47So, in this holiday month,
11:50it tends to push the energy from Samsung,
11:53so the main target is Cepin.
11:57The second is Indofood.
11:59Here I see that the energy is still quite stable,
12:02even though there is pressure.
12:04I see that Indofood is still interesting
12:08because it has a fairly rapid valuation
12:11and their energy recovery in September-May,
12:14so the potential for energy release in 2024
12:17has a fairly good potential like that.
12:19Meanwhile, if there was SMIC Gresik,
12:22SMIC Indonesia for me,
12:25this is more towards the technical factor,
12:27after the fire,
12:29so there is a rebound potential for the short-term like that.
12:32Okay, what is the potential of the ESG movement
12:34in today's trading movement and also Samsung's choice from you?
12:37We will continue the discussion in the next session,
12:39thank you Mr. Praska and our guests.
12:41We will be back soon.